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At least 955 records · Page 53

An Overview of NASA's Program of Future M&S VV&A Outreach and Training Activities

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model s fidelity, credibility, and quality. The Integrated Modeling & Simulation Verification, Validation and Accreditation (IM&S W&A) process will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model s results for mission-critical decisions. The W&A Technical Working Group (W&A TWG) has been identified to communicate this process throughout the agency. As the W&A experts, the W&A NVG will be the central resource for support of W&A policy, procedures, training and templates for documentation. This presentation will discuss the W&A Technical Working Group s outreach approach aimed at educating M&S program managers, developers, users and proponents on the W&A process, beginning at MSFC with the CLV program.

Caine, Lisa↗

Thermal Design and Analysis of an ISS Science Payload - SAGE III on ISS

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III will be launched in the SpaceX Dragon vehicle in 2017 and mounted to an external stowage platform on the International Space Station (ISS) to begin its three-year mission. The SAGE III thermal team at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) worked with ISS thermal engineers to ensure that SAGE III, as an ISS payload, would meet requirements specific to ISS and the Dragon vehicle. This document presents an overview of the SAGE III thermal design and analysis efforts, focusing on aspects that are relevant for future ISS payload developers. This includes development of detailed and reduced Thermal Desktop (TD) models integrated with the ISS and launch vehicle models, definition of analysis cases necessary to verify thermal requirements considering all mission phases from launch through installation and operation on-orbit, and challenges associated with thermal hardware selection including heaters, multi-layer insulation (MLI) blankets, and thermal tapes.

Liles, Kaitlin, A. K.↗

Nebular Continuum and Line Emission in Stellar Population Synthesis Models

Accounting for nebular emission when modeling galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is important, as both line and continuum emissions can contribute significantly to the total observed flux. In this work, we present a new nebular emission model integrated within the Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis code that computes the line and continuum emission for complex stellar populations using the photoionization code Cloudy. The self-consistent coupling of the nebular emission to the matched ionizing spectrum produces emission line intensities that correctly scale with the stellar population as a function of age and metallicity. This more complete model of galaxy SEDs will improve estimates of global gas properties derived with diagnostic diagrams, star formation rates based on H α , and physical properties derived from broadband photometry. Our models agree well with results from other photoionization models and are able to reproduce observed emission from H ii regions and star-forming galaxies. Our models show improved agreement with the observed H ii regions in the Ne iii/O ii plane and show satisfactory agreement with He ii emission from z = 2 galaxies, when including rotating stellar models. Models including post-asymptotic giant branch stars are able to reproduce line ratios consistent with low-ionization emission regions. The models are integrated into current versions of FSPS and include self-consistent nebular emission predictions for MIST and Padova+Geneva evolutionary tracks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data for "Integrated ab initio modelling of atomic order and magnetic anisotropy for rare-earth-free magnet design: effects of alloying additions in L1 0 FeNi."

We describe an integrated modelling approach to accelerate the search for novel, single-phase, multicomponent materials with high magnetocrystalline anisotropy (MCA). For a given system we predict the nature of atomic ordering, its dependence on the magnetic state, and then proceed to describe the consequent MCA, magnetisation, and magnetic critical temperature (Curie temperature). Crucially, within our modelling framework, the same ab initio description of a material’s electronic structure determines all aspects. We demonstrate this holistic method by studying the effects of alloying additions in FeNi, examining systems with the general stoichiometries Fe 4 Ni 3 X and Fe 3 Ni 4 X, for additives including X = Pt, Pd, Al, and Co. The atomic ordering behaviour predicted on adding these elements, fundamental for determining a material’s MCA, is rich and varied. Equiatomic FeNi has been reported to require ferromagnetic order to establish the tetragonal L1 0 order suited for significant MCA. Our results show that when alloying additions are included in this material, annealing in an applied magnetic field and/or below a material’s Curie temperature may also promote tetragonal order, along with an appreciable effect on the predicted hard magnetic properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The electric vehicles-solar photovoltaics Nexus: Driving cross-sectoral adoption of sustainable technologies

Residential and transportation energy consumption account for more than one-half of the overall energy consumption in the United States. Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) can play a key role in decarbonizing the transportation sector, while the adoption of renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaics [PVs]) could bring similar benefits to the residential energy sector and in turn support transport electrification. Although the market shares for both EVs and PVs continue to grow, both of these emerging technologies are deployed rather disjointly, without considering the existence of potential similarities among users who own (or aspire to own) these technologies. This might be due to lack of understanding of the behavioral interdependence in consumer preferences toward these technologies. To fill this gap in knowledge, this study utilizes data from the 2018 WholeTraveler Transportation Behavior Study to develop an integrated model system that explores interactive EV and PV adoption behaviors. A structural equation model is employed that incorporates direct effects as well as error correlations among the adoption behaviors for EVs and PVs. Model results indicate that the adoption behavior for both these technologies is indeed interconnected and significantly influenced by attitudes, values, and personality traits. Findings from this research suggest that incentives (e.g., subsidies) that drive bundled adoption of EV-PV systems could accelerate the adoption of both of these sustainable technologies. In conclusion, this study highlights the need to consider transport and building energy-efficient technology adoption behavior in a single integrated structure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Integrated operation scenarios: Chapter 6 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Here we report the progress of the development and optimization of operational scenarios for ITER and beyond, focusing upon baseline, hybrid, and steady-state scenarios since 2007. This includes advancements made by the integrated operation scenarios (IOS) topical group of the international tokamak physical activity as well as contributions from the broader tokamak community. The key area of research involves developing IOSs that encompass tokamak physics, operation, and technology by utilizing integrated modeling and control strategies. This requires leveraging available actuators to simultaneously control plasma position and shape, MHD activities that could lead to disruptions, transport, plasma-wall interaction and power exhaust, fuel cycle, fusion burn, and tritium breeding. The control extends from the plasma initiation phase, through the current ramp-up, flattop, start and end of the fusion burn, and current ramp-down, to the plasma termination phase. A review of the currently developed scenarios and modeling is provided in terms of (i) optimizing plasma initiation in ITER, (ii) preparing for the low activation phase to fully commission all tokamak systems and establish and validate physics and scenario conditions in preparation for deuterim-tritium (DT) operation, (iii) developing and preparing baseline and hybrid scenarios to demonstrate the feasibility of achieving these regimes within device constraints, (iv) exploring steady-state scenarios to meet ITER’s steady-state goals, (v) evaluating and preparing actuators for ITER, (vi) developing integrated control solutions using shared actuators. The most notable achievements include; (i) the development of ITER demonstration discharges by matching various dimensionless parameters, (ii) the development of scenarios in an ITER-like tungsten environment and DT operation, and (iii) the development of scenarios in superconducting tokamaks, enabling long-pulse operations with similar coil constraints to ITER. Along with these significant achievements, outstanding issues and recommendations for further research and development are provided. Importantly, this study goes beyond simply updating the ITER Physics Basis; it carries profound implications for the broader field of burning plasma research, offering valuable insights and guidance for the next generation of fusion experiments and devices.

ITER↗

Investigation of performance enhancement by balanced double-null shaping in KSTAR

We report experimental observations on the effect of plasma boundary shaping towards balanced double-null (DN) configuration on the plasma performance in KSTAR. The transition from a single-null to a DN configuration resulted in improved plasma performance, manifested through changes in the pedestal region, decreased density, and core MHD activity variation. Specifically, the DN transition led to a wider and higher pedestal structure, accompanied by grassy edge-localized modes (ELMs) characteristics. The density decrease was a prerequisite for performance enhancement during DN shaping, increasing fast ion confinement. Optimizing the plasma near the core region was associated with the suppression of sawtooth instabilities and the occurrence of fishbone modes during the DN transition. Integrated modeling demonstrated that secondary effects of the DN shaping could increase core thermal energy confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integrated Surface/subsurface flow modeling in PFLOTRAN

Understanding soil water, groundwater, and shallow surface water dynamics as an integrated hydrological system is critical for understanding the Earth’s critical zone, the thin outer layer at our planet’s surface where vegetation, soil, rock, and gases interact to regulate the environment. Computational tools that take this view of soil moisture and shallow surface flows as a single integrated system are typically referred to as integrated surface/subsurface hydrology models. We extend the open-source, highly parallel, subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to accommodate surface flows. In contrast to most previous implementations, we do not represent a distinct surface system. Instead, the vertical gradient in hydraulic head at the land surface is neglected, which allows the surface flow system to be eliminated and incorporated directly into the subsurface system. This tight coupling approach leads to a robust capability and also greatly simplifies implementation in existing subsurface simulators such as PFLOTRAN. Successful comparisons to independent numerical solutions build confidence in the approximation and implementation. Example simulations of the Walker Branch and East Fork Poplar Creek watersheds near Oak Ridge, Tennessee demonstrate the robustness of the approach in geometrically complex applications. The lack of a robust integrated surface/subsurface hydrology capability had been a barrier to PFLOTRAN’s use in critical zone studies. This work addresses that capability gap, thus enabling PFLOTRAN as a community platform for building integrated models of the critical zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Triple Effect Economics: How Do Electric Vehicles, Solar Photovoltaics, and Work-from-Home Transform Household Electricity Cost?

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be affordable as well as sustainable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact a household's overall energy consumption and cost in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's electricity cost burden. Leveraging the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. National level RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and cost saving mechanism. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Formation of a repressive complex in the mammalian circadian clock is mediated by the secondary pocket of CRY1

The basic helix-loop-helix PAS domain (bHLH-PAS) transcription factor CLOCK:BMAL1 (brain and muscle Arnt-like protein 1) sits at the core of the mammalian circadian transcription/translation feedback loop. Precise control of CLOCK:BMAL1 activity by coactivators and repressors establishes the ~24-h periodicity of gene expression. Formation of a repressive complex, defined by the core clock proteins cryptochrome 1 (CRY1):CLOCK:BMAL1, plays an important role controlling the switch from repression to activation each day. Here in this paper, we show that CRY1 binds directly to the PAS domain core of CLOCK: BMAL1, driven primarily by interaction with the CLOCK PAS-B domain. Integrative modeling and solution X-ray scattering studies unambiguously position a key loop of the CLOCK PAS-B domain in the secondary pocket of CRY1, analogous to the antenna chromophore-binding pocket of photolyase. CRY1 docks onto the transcription factor alongside the PAS domains, extending above the DNA-binding bHLH domain. Single point mutations at the interface on either CRY1 or CLOCK disrupt formation of the ternary complex, highlighting the importance of this interface for direct regulation of CLOCK:BMAL1 activity by CRY1.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Triple Effect: Unraveling the Joint Impact of Electric Vehicles, Solar Panels, and Work-From-Home Patterns on Household Electricity Costs

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be sustainable as well as affordable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact the overall energy consumption and cost of a household in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's energy (electricity cost) burden. Leveraging Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and affordable future. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗

The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia

The adequacy of freshwater resources remains a critical challenge for a sustainable and growing society. We present a self-consistent risk-based assessment of water availability and use under future climate change and socioeconomic growth by midcentury across southern and eastern Asia (SEA). We employ large ensemble scenarios from an integrated modeling framework that are consistent across the spectrum of regional climate, population, and economic projections. We find socioeconomic growth contributes to an increase in water stress across the entire ensemble. However, climate change drives the ensemble central tendency toward an increase in water stress in China but a reduction in India, with a considerable spread across the ensemble. Nevertheless, the most deleterious unabated climate-change impact is a low probability but salient extreme increase in water stress over China and India. In these outcomes, annual withdrawals will routinely exceed water-storage capacity. A modest greenhouse gas mitigation pathway eliminates the likelihood of these extreme outcomes and also benefits hundreds of millions of people at risk to various levels of water stress increase. Over SEA we estimate an additional 200 million people under threat of facing at least heavily water-stressed conditions from climate change and socioeconomic growth, but the mitigation scenario reduces the additional population-under-threat by 30% (60 million). Nevertheless, there remains a 1-in-2 chance that 100 million people across SEA experience a 50% increase in water stress and a 1-in-10 chance they experience a doubling of water stress. Therefore, widespread adaptive measures may be required over the coming decades to meet these unavoidable risks in water shortfalls.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploration Medical System Trade Study Tools Overview

ExMC is creating an ecosystem of tools to enable well-informed medical system trade studies. The suite of tools address important system implementation aspects of the space medical capabilities trade space and are being built using knowledge from the medical community regarding the unique aspects of space flight. Two integrating models, a systems engineering model and a medical risk analysis model, tie the tools together to produce an integrated assessment of the medical system and its ability to achieve medical system target requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of the various tools that are a part of the tool ecosystem. Initially, the presentation's focus will address the tools that supply the foundational information to the ecosystem. Specifically, the talk will describe how information that describes how medicine will be practiced is captured and categorized for efficient utilization in the tool suite. For example, the talk will include capturing what conditions will be planned for in-mission treatment, planned medical activities (e.g., periodic physical exam), required medical capabilities (e.g., provide imaging), and options to implement the capabilities (e.g., an ultrasound device). Database storage and configuration management will also be discussed. The presentation will include an overview of how these information tools will be tied to parameters in a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) model, allowing traceability to system behavioral, structural, and requirements content. The discussion will also describe an HRP-led enhanced risk assessment model developed to provide quantitative insight into each capability's contribution to mission success. Key outputs from these various tools, to be shared with the space medical and exploration mission development communities, will be assessments of medical system implementation option satisfaction of requirements and per-capability contributions toward achieving requirements.

Mindock, J.↗

Investigation of methane mass transfer and sorption in Marcellus shale under variable net-stress

Natural gas in shale exists as free and adsorbed gas, subject to prevailing pore pressures and stress conditions. Accordingly, to accurately estimate/predict the shale gas recovery potential, a central requirement is to represent gas transport and sorption behavior under varying stress conditions. The objective of this work is to facilitate the interpretation of laboratory-scale experiments, at relevant conditions, in an attempt to bridge the gap in scales between laboratory- and field-scale observations. We have conducted a series of high-pressure experiments on a full-diameter core sample from the Marcellus shale. These include gas loading (pressure-decay) and depletion (production) experiments with pure methane (CH 4 ) at variable stress conditions to characterize transport and sorption behavior under reservoir-relevant conditions. Here we have formulated and applied a novel integral model for mass transfer and storage in multi-porosity shale systems that allows us to effectively investigate transport and sorption phenomena: We delineate gas transport by interpreting helium (He) pressure-decay experiments and demonstrate how to use the information gained to calculate the relevant transport coefficients of CH 4 and other gases. A separate measurement of the CH 4 sorption isotherm on a smaller sample (a shale cube) was interpreted and combined with the transport description to predict the production behavior of CH 4 from the experiments with the full-diameter core. Our experiments demonstrate that the representation of sorption hysteresis is crucial for predicting and guiding shale gas production: At the end of both gas production experiments, approximately 20% of the initial gas in place remained in the core. Without accounting for sorption hysteresis, our modeling demonstrates that the CH 4 production could be overestimated by 10%. We demonstrate that our integral, triple-porosity model provides an effective approach for the interpretation and prediction of gas transport and sorption behavior during loading and production experiments on shale cores under variable net-stress conditions. In summary, our work combines measurements and modeling of mass transfer and sorption in shales at different scales to validate a characterization approach that facilitates an improved understanding of shale gas production. Furthermore, the triple-porosity model utilized in our work defines a potential pathway for the translation of laboratory-scale experimentation to larger-scale applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Model development for household waste prevention behaviour

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model waste prevention behaviour using structure equation modelling. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We merge attitude-behaviour theories with wider models from environmental psychology. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main behaviour predictors. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental concern, moral obligation and inconvenience are the main influence on the behaviour. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Waste prevention and recycling are different dimensions of waste management behaviour. - Abstract: Understanding waste prevention behaviour (WPB) could enable local governments and decision makers to design more-effective policies for reducing the amount of waste that is generated. By merging well-known attitude-behaviour theories with elements from wider models from environmental psychology, an extensive cognitive framework that provides new and valuable insights is developed for understanding the involvement of individuals in waste prevention. The results confirm the usefulness of the theory of planned behaviour and of Schwartz's altruistic behaviour model as bases for modelling participation in waste prevention. A more elaborate integrated model of prevention was shown to be necessary for the complete analysis of attitudinal aspects associated with waste prevention. A postal survey of 158 respondents provided empirical support for eight of 12 hypotheses. The proposed structural equation indicates that personal norms and perceived behaviour control are the main predictors and that, unlike the case of recycling, subjective norms have a weak influence on WPB. It also suggests that, since social norms have not presented a direct influence, WPB is likely to be influenced by a concern for the environment and the community as well by perceptions of moral obligation and inconvenience. Results also proved that recycling and waste prevention represent different dimensions of waste management behaviour requiring particular approaches to increase individuals' engagement in future policies.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Monte Carlo study of efficiency roll-off of phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes: Evidence for dominant role of triplet-polaron quenching

We present an advanced molecular-scale organic light-emitting diode (OLED) model, integrating both electronic and excitonic processes. Using this model, we can reproduce the measured efficiency roll-off for prototypical phosphorescent OLED stacks based on the green dye tris[2-phenylpyridine]iridium (Ir(ppy){sub 3}) and the red dye octaethylporphine platinum (PtOEP) and study the cause of the roll-off as function of the current density. Both the voltage versus current density characteristics and roll-off agree well with experimental data. Surprisingly, the results of the simulations lead us to conclude that, contrary to what is often assumed, not triplet-triplet annihilation but triplet-polaron quenching is the dominant mechanism causing the roll-off under realistic operating conditions. Simulations for devices with an optimized recombination profile, achieved by carefully tuning the dye trap depth, show that it will be possible to fabricate OLEDs with a drastically reduced roll-off. It is envisaged that J{sub 90}, the current density at which the efficiency is reduced to 90%, can be increased by almost one order of magnitude as compared to the experimental state-of-the-art.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗