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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Low doses and non-targeted effects in environmental radiation protection; where are we now and where should we go?

The field of low dose radiobiology has advanced considerably in the last 30 years from small indications in the 1980's that all was not simple, to a paradigm shift which occurred during the 1990's, which severely dented the dose-driven models and DNA centric theories which had dominated until then. However while the science has evolved, the application of that science in environmental health protection has not. A reason for this appears to be the uncertainties regarding the shape of the low dose response curve, which lead regulators to adopt a precautionary approach to radiation protection. Radiation protection models assume a linear relationship between dose (i.e. energy deposition) and effect (in this case probability of an adverse DNA interaction leading to a mutation). This model does not consider non-targeted effects (NTE) such as bystander effects or delayed effects, which occur in progeny cells or offspring not directly receiving energy deposition from the dose. There is huge controversy concerning the role of NTE with some saying they reflect “biology” and that repair and homeostatic mechanisms sort out the apparent damage while others consider them to be a class of damage which increases the size of the target. One thing which has recently become apparent is that NTE may be very critical for modelling long-term effects at the level of the population rather than the individual. The issue is that NTE resulting from an acute high dose such as occurred after the A-bomb or Chernobyl occur in parallel with chronic effects induced by the continuing residual effects due to radiation dose decay. This means that if ambient radiation doses are measured for example 25 years after the Chernobyl accident, they only represent a portion of the dose effect because the contribution of NTE is not included. - Highlights: • This paper presents a new concept in Environmental Radiobiology, which could explain why effects are detected in Chernobyl and Fukushima wildlife at ambient doses which are very low. • We suggest that non-targeted effects such as genomic instability, lethal mutations and bystander signalling, contribute a persistent legacy dimension to the total measured effect. • This “historic dose” component needs to be incorporated into dose effect models in order to predict true levels of risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Cryptonite: A Secure and Performant Data Repository on Public Clouds

Cloud storage has become immensely popular for maintaining synchronized copies of files and for sharing documents with collaborators. However, there is heightened concern about the security and privacy of Cloud-hosted data due to the shared infrastructure model and an implicit trust in the service providers. Emerging needs of secure data storage and sharing for domains like Smart Power Grids, which deal with sensitive consumer data, require the persistence and availability of Cloud storage but with client-controlled security and encryption, low key management overhead, and minimal performance costs. Cryptonite is a secure Cloud storage repository that addresses these requirements using a StrongBox model for shared key management.We describe the Cryptonite service and desktop client, discuss performance optimizations, and provide an empirical analysis of the improvements. Our experiments shows that Cryptonite clients achieve a 40% improvement in file upload bandwidth over plaintext storage using the Azure Storage Client API despite the added security benefits, while our file download performance is 5 times faster than the baseline for files greater than 100MB.

Cloud data storage↗
DOE OSTI2022

In vivo stabilization of a less toxic asparaginase variant leads to a durable antitumor response in acute leukemia

Asparagine is a non-essential amino acid since it can either be taken up via the diet or synthesized by asparagine synthetase. Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) cells do not express asparagine synthetase or express it only minimally, which makes them completely dependent on extracellular asparagine for their growth and survival. This dependency makes ALL cells vulnerable to treatment with L-asparaginase, an enzyme that hydrolyzes asparagine. To date, all clinically approved L-asparaginases have significant L-glutaminase co-activity, associated with non-immune related toxic side effects observed during therapy. Therefore, reduction of L-glutaminase co-activity with concomitant maintenance of its anticancer L-asparaginase effect may effectively improve the tolerability of this unique drug. Previously, we designed a new alternative variant of Erwinia chrysanthemi (ErA; Erwinaze) with decreased L-glutaminase co-activity, while maintaining its L-asparaginase activity, by the introduction of three key mutations around the active site (ErA-TM). However, Erwinaze and our ErA-TM variant have very short half-lives in vivo. Here, we show that the fusion of ErA-TM with an albumin binding domain (ABD)-tag significantly increases its in vivo persistence. In addition, we evaluated the in vivo therapeutic efficacy of ABD-ErA-TM in a B-ALL xenograft model of SUP-B15. Our results show a comparable long-lasting durable antileukemic effect between the standard-of-care pegylated-asparaginase and ABD-ErA-TM L-asparaginase, but with fewer co-glutaminase-related acute side effects. Since the toxic side effects of current L-asparaginases often result in treatment discontinuation in ALL patients, this novel ErA-TM variant with ultra-low L-glutaminase co-activity and long in vivo persistence may have great clinical potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Limits on Runoff Episode Duration for Early Mars: Integrating Lake Hydrology and Climate Models

Fluvio-lacustrine features on the martian surface attest to a climate that was radically different in the past. Since climate models have difficulty sustaining a liquid hydrosphere at the surface, multiple cycles of runoff episodes may have characterized the ancient Mars climate. A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these runoff-producing episodes? Here we use morphometric measurements from newly identified coupled lake systems, containing both an open- and a closed-basin lake (n=7). We combined hydrological balances with precipitation outputs from climate models, and found that breaching runoff episodes likely lasted 102−105yr; other episodes may have been shorter but could not be longer. Runoff episode durations are model-dependent and spatiallyvariable, and no27climate model scenario can satisfy a unique duration for all coupled systems. In the near future, these quantitative constraints on early Mars lake persistence may be tested through in situ observations from Perseverance rover. Plain Language Summary Ancient river and lake beds on the martian surface point to a climate that was radically different in the past, unlike the dry, cold desert that Mars is today. It experienced significant liquid water flowing across the surface (i.e., ‘runoff’) and hosted long-lived bodies of water (lakes and seas). However, scientists that generate models to simulate the ancient Mars climate have difficulty sustaining this proposed liquid water cycle at the surface. One possible hypothesis is that multiple cycles of individual liquid water episodes may have characterized the ancient martian climate (i.e. runoff episodes). A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these individual runoff-producing episodes? Here we use an approach that takes advantage of unique martian lake system, ‘coupled’ lake systems, and their shapes. We combined these measurements with precipitation results from previous climate models, and found that runoff episodes likely lasted 100-10,000 years, requiring a global climate mechanism that generated repeated cycles of this duration. Ultimately, our results can be tested through observations made by NASA’s Perseverance rover, shedding light on the uninterrupted duration of surface water on Mars and its potential to host life in the past.

Gaia Stucky de Quay↗
DOE OSTI2023

Broken symmetries and excitation spectra of interacting electrons in partially filled Landau levels

Interacting electrons in flat bands give rise to a variety of quantum phases. One fundamental aspect of such states is the ordering of the various flavours – such as spin or valley – that the electrons can undergo and the excitation spectrum of the broken symmetry states that they form. These properties cannot be probed directly with electrical transport measurements. The zeroth Landau level of monolayer graphene with four-fold spin-valley degeneracy is a model system for such investigations, but the nature of its broken symmetry states – particularly at partial fillings – is still not understood. Here, in this study, we demonstrate a non-invasive spectroscopic technique with a scanning tunneling microscope and use it to perform measurements of the valley polarization of the electronic wavefunctions and their excitation spectrum in the partially filled zeroth Landau level of graphene. We can extract information such as the strength of Haldane pseudopotentials that characterize the repulsive interactions underlying the fractional quantum states. Our experiments also demonstrate that fractional quantum Hall phases are built upon broken symmetry states that persist at partial filling. Our experimental approach quantifies the valley phase diagram of the partially filled Landau level as a model flat band platform which is applicable to other graphene-based electronic systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transport Upscaling under Flow Heterogeneity and Matrix-Diffusion in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks

For this work, we investigate the combined effects of network scale flow variability and retention due to matrix-diffusion on the scaling behavior of transport through fractured media. Two of the principal mechanisms controlling the transport of solutes through fractured low-permeability media are broad distributions of flow velocities and retention times in the solid matrix. We study the relative impact of these two processes under different initial conditions using a set of three-dimensional discrete fracture network simulations. We use these simulations to develop and calibrate an upscaled continuous time random walk (CTRW) approach for advective transport based on an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for the particle velocities that accounts for the fracture-matrix coupling using a compound Poisson process. This CTRW model can be conditioned on the initial solute distribution and allows to observe late-time scaling behavior at distances beyond what is feasible to observe using high-fidelity direct numerical simulations. We determine that the initial distribution of particles leads to marked differences in the persistent long-term scale behavior in the solute travel time distributions, even those undergoing retention due to matrix diffusion through implementation and analysis of the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Data from: "Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming"

This data package contains model data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Declines in low-elevation subalpine populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming”, by Conlisk et al. 2017. Experimental data collected at field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), and data from long-term observational plots were collected on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA and used to formulate models contained within the folder “Model_archive” in the zipped folder “Conlisk_etal_JEcol2017_model_archive12022020.zip”. The contents of this compressed folder are described in the data user's guide attached to this archive.There are two folders within the zipped folder - “EngelmannSpruce” and “LimberPine” - for each of the two species in the paper. Models are stored as text files and .sch files can also be opened as text files. However, please note that all these files are specific to the RAMAS Metapop population modeling software, and you will need the program in order to be able to run these models. There are two separate documents, both named “Conlisk_JofEcology_SI_01262017” within “Model_archive”. One is a Microsoft Word file, and the other is a PDF. The former can be opened with Microsoft Word, and the latter can be opened by Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any software compatible with a PDF.------------------1. Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long lifespans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. 2. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. 3. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modeled population declines at the low-elevation, “warm edge” of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, “cool edge”. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modeled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above treeline, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. 4. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dynamic cellular finite-element method for modelling large-scale cell migration and proliferation under the control of mechanical and biochemical cues: a study of re-epithelialization

Computational modelling of cells can reveal insight into the mechanisms of the important processes of tissue development. However, current cell models have limitations and are challenged to model detailed changes in cellular shapes and physical mechanics when thousands of migrating and interacting cells need to be modelled. In this paper we describe a novel dynamic cellular finite-element model (DyCelFEM), which accounts for changes in cellular shapes and mechanics. It also models the full range of cell motion, from movements of individual cells to collective cell migrations. The transmission of mechanical forces regulated by intercellular adhesions and their ruptures are also accounted for. Intra-cellular protein signalling networks controlling cell behaviours are embedded in individual cells. We employ DyCelFEM to examine specific effects of biochemical and mechanical cues in regulating cell migration and proliferation, and in controlling tissue patterning using a simplified re-epithelialization model of wound tissue. Our results suggest that biochemical cues are better at guiding cell migration with improved directionality and persistence, while mechanical cues are better at coordinating collective cell migration. Finally and overall, DyCelFEM can be used to study developmental processes when a large population of migrating cells under mechanical and biochemical controls experience complex changes in cell shapes and mechanics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards a real-time computation of timelike hadronic vacuum polarization and light-by-light scattering: Schwinger Model tests

Hadronic vacuum polarization (HVP) and light-by-light scattering (HLBL) are crucial for evaluating the Standard Model predictions concerning the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment. However, direct first-principle lattice gauge theory-based calculations of these observables in the timelike region remain challenging. Discrepancies persist between lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) calculations in the spacelike region and dispersive approaches relying on experimental data parametrization from the timelike region. Here, we introduce a methodology employing 1+1-dimensional quantum electrodynamics (QED), i.e. the Schwinger Model, to investigate the HVP and HLBL. To that end, we use both tensor network techniques, specifically matrix product states, and classical emulators of digital quantum computers. Demonstrating feasibility in a simplified model, our approach sets the stage for future endeavors leveraging digital quantum computers.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Anomalous density and elastic properties of basalt at high pressure: Reevaluating of the effect of melt fraction on seismic velocity in the Earth's crust and upper mantle

Independent measurements of the volumetric and elastic properties of Columbia River basalt glass were made up to 5.5 GPa by high-pressure X-ray microtomography and GHz-ultrasonic interferometry, respectively. The Columbia River basalt displays P and S wave velocity minima at 4.5 and 5 GPa, respectively, violating Birch’s law. These data constrain the pressure dependence of the density and elastic moduli at high pressure, which cannot be modeled through usual equations of state nor determined by stepwise integrating the bulk sound velocity as is common practice. We propose a systematic variation in compression behavior of silicate glasses that is dependent on the degree of polymerization and arises from the flexibility of the aluminosilicate network. Likewise, this behavior likely persists into the liquid state for basaltic melts resulting in weak pressure dependence for P wave velocities perhaps to depths of the transition zone. By modeling the effect of partial melt on P wave velocity reductions it is suggested that melt fraction determined by seismic velocity variations may be significantly overestimated in the crust and upper mantle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Planck 2013 results. XXIII. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

The two fundamental assumptions of the standard cosmological model-that the initial fluctuations are statistically isotropic and Gaussian-are rigorously tested using maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy from the Planck satellite. The detailed results are based on studies of four independent estimates of the CMB that are compared to simulations using a fiducial ΛCDM model and incorporating essential aspects of the Planck measurement process. Deviations from isotropy have been found and demonstrated to be robust against component separation algorithm, mask choice, and frequency dependence. Many of these anomalies were previously observed in the WMAP data, and are now confirmed at similar levels of significance (about 3σ). However, we find little evidence of non-Gaussianity, with the exception of a few statistical signatures that seem to be associated with specific anomalies. In particular, we find that the quadrupole-octopole alignment is also connected to a low observed variance in the CMB signal. A power asymmetry is now found to persist on scales corresponding to about ℓ = 600 and can be described in the low-ℓ regime by a phenomenological dipole modulation model. However, any primordial power asymmetry is strongly scale-dependent and does not extend to arbitrarily small angular scales. Finally, it is plausible that some of these features may be reflected in the angular power spectrum of the data, which shows a deficit of power on similar scales. Indeed, when the power spectra of two hemispheres defined by a preferred direction are considered separately, one shows evidence of a deficit in power, while its opposite contains oscillations between odd and even modes that may be related to the parity violation and phase correlations also detected in the data. Although these analyses represent a step forward in building an understanding of the anomalies, a satisfactory explanation based on physically motivated models is still lacking.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Radiation hydrodynamics modeling of the highest compression inertial confinement fusion ignition experiment from the National Ignition Campaign

The recently completed National Ignition Campaign (NIC) on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) showed significant discrepancies between post-shot simulations of implosion performance and experimentally measured performance, particularly in thermonuclear yield. This discrepancy between simulation and observation persisted despite concerted efforts to include all of the known sources of performance degradation within a reasonable two-dimensional (2-D), and even three-dimensional (3-D), simulation model, e.g., using measured surface imperfections and radiation drives adjusted to reproduce observed implosion trajectories [Clark et al., Phys. Plasmas 20, 056318 (2013)]. Since the completion of the NIC, several effects have been identified that could explain these discrepancies and that were omitted in previous simulations. In particular, there is now clear evidence for larger than anticipated long-wavelength radiation drive asymmetries and a larger than expected perturbation seeded by the capsule support tent. This paper describes an updated suite of one-dimensional (1-D), 2-D, and 3-D simulations that include the current best understanding of these effects identified since the NIC, as applied to a specific NIC shot. The relative importance of each effect on the experimental observables is compared. In combination, these effects reduce the simulated-to-measured yield ratio from 125:1 in 1-D to 1.5:1 in 3-D, as compared to 15:1 in the best 2-D simulations published previously. While the agreement with the experimental data remains imperfect, the comparison to the data is significantly improved and suggests that the largest sources for the previous discrepancies between simulation and experiment are now being included.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Roles for epigenetics in wood formation and stress response intrees–from basic biology to forest management

Annual model and crop species have been the subject of most epigenetic studies for plants. In contrast to annuals, forest trees persist on natural landscapes and experience environmental variation within and across seasons, years, and decades or even centuries. Most forest trees species are undomesticated and typically grown on variable landscapes with no irrigation or application of agricultural chemicals. Forest trees must thus rely on their inherent ability to alter growth and physiology to mitigate the effects of changing abiotic and biotic stressors. Like other plants, trees have mechanisms encoded in their genomic DNA sequence that can respond directly to stress events such as drought or heat. Hypothetically, it would be highly advantageous to join these mechanisms with a dynamic “memory” of past exposure to stress. It is now well established that annual model and crop plants can establish epigenetic-based memory of stress events that support more rapid and robust response to stress in the future. Here, evidence is discussed for epigenetic regulation and “memory” in two fundamental biological processes in trees, wood formation and abiotic stress response. Wood formation is an ideal trait for epigenetic research in trees, as wood formation is highly responsive to environmental conditions and includes multiple rapid developmental changes as cells adopt distinct fates within complex tissues. This is followed by a discussion of research needs that would provide the foundation for new epigenetic applications for forestry.

Groover, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2015

Deinococcus radiodurans RecA nucleoprotein filaments characterized at the single-molecule level with optical tweezers

Deinococcus radiodurans can survive extreme doses of ionizing radiation due to the very efficient DNA repair mechanisms that are able to cope even with hundreds of double-strand breaks. RecA, the critical protein of homologous recombination in bacteria, is one of the key components of the DNA-repair system. Repair of double-strand breaks requires RecA binding to DNA and assembly of the RecA nucleoprotein helical filaments. The Escherichia coli RecA protein (EcRecA) and its interactions with DNA have been extensively studied using various approaches including single-molecule techniques, while the D. radiodurans RecA (DrRecA) remains much less characterized. However, DrRecA shows some remarkable differences from E. coli homolog. Here we combine microfluidics and single-molecule DNA manipulation with optical tweezers to follow the binding of DrRecA to long double-stranded DNA molecules and probe the mechanical properties of DrRecA nucleoprotein filaments at physiological pH. Our data provide a direct comparison of DrRecA and EcRecA binding to double-stranded DNA under identical conditions. We report a significantly faster filaments assembly as well as lower values of persistence length and contour length for DrRecA nucleoprotein filaments compared to EcRecA. Our results support the existing model of DrRecA forming more frequent and less continuous filaments relative to those of EcRecA. - Highlights: • We investigate Deinococcus radiodurans RecA interactions with long double-stranded DNA at the single-molecule level. • At physiological pH D. radiodurans RecA forms nucleoprotein filaments significantly faster relative to Escherichia coli RecA. • D. radiodurans RecA-dsDNA nucleoprotein filaments are more flexible and slightly shorter compared to those of E. coli RecA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deactivating Emission in Azulene via Solvent-Induced (Anti)Aromaticity

Anti-Kasha emission is a coveted feature in optoelectronics, with promise in areas such as imaging, sensing, and the production of white-light LEDs via dual-photon emission. Despite being a rare feature in organic systems, anti-Kasha emission is readily observed in the deceptively simple molecule azulene, which possesses two bright singlet states in the UV–visible spectrum and readily emits from the S 2 state. With dominant anti-Kasha emission and decades of synthetic study, azulene is a perfect candidate for novel material fabrication; however, large gaps persist in understanding the photophysics of even the simple parent compound. These range from competing, experimentally unverified models of azulene reactivity and aromaticity to the unexplained deactivation of anti-Kasha emission in a host of azulene derivatives. Herein, we use fluorescence and transient absorption spectroscopies to explore the detailed solvent dependence of azulene photophysics. We discover a tunable reduction in the S 2 lifetime via weak complexation with aromatic solvents. Interestingly, our results are independent of polarity, highlighting the primacy of peripherally delocalized 10-π Hückel aromaticity over zwitterionic character. When the dipolar character is enhanced through chemical functionalization, we observe even greater sensitivity to solvent aromaticity and more rapid quenching, revealing the role of conical intersections in azulenes with zwitterionic excited states. Overall, this work provides essential mechanistic insight into the photophysics of azulene and reveals a simple new approach to control the excited-state aromaticity and anti-Kasha emission in this class of materials.

Absorption↗
DOE OSTI2015

Unexpected edge conduction in mercury telluride quantum wells under broken time-reversal symmetry

The realization of quantum spin Hall effect in HgTe quantum wells is considered a milestone in the discovery of topological insulators. Quantum spin Hall states are predicted to allow current flow at the edges of an insulating bulk, as demonstrated in various experiments. A key prediction yet to be experimentally verified is the breakdown of the edge conduction under broken time-reversal symmetry. Here we first establish a systematic framework for the magnetic field dependence of electrostatically gated quantum spin Hall devices. We then study edge conduction of an inverted quantum well device under broken time-reversal symmetry using microwave impedance microscopy, and compare our findings to a non-inverted device. At zero magnetic field, only the inverted device shows clear edge conduction in its local conductivity profile, consistent with theory. Surprisingly, the edge conduction persists up to 9 T with little change. Finally, this indicates physics beyond simple quantum spin Hall model, including material-specific properties and possibly many-body effects.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗