Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “value analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining calculations of Pu 239 ( n , γ ) cross sections with multistep cascade γ -ray spectra measured at the DANCE facility

Measurements of multistep cascade gamma-ray spectra from several low-lying 1 + resonances in the Pu 239 ( n , γ ) reaction were made using the DANCE detector. The measured spectra are compared to spectra simulated using several models for the photon strength function and the nuclear level density, representing the first analysis of this nature on a fissile nucleus. In general, models of the photon strength function that included a strong M 1 “scissors mode” contribution coupled with a Gilbert-Cameron nuclear level density provided a reasonable description of the spectra. Simulations using photon strength functions and nuclear level densities specifically for Pu 240 , extracted by the Oslo method, resulted in a very good representation of the measured spectra. Neutron-capture cross section calculations that included the scissors mode provided a good estimate of the previously measured values, without additional normalization. However, the scissors-mode energy that produced the best description of the multistep cascade spectra was different from the value that best reproduced the capture cross section. In addition, the 〈 Γ γ 〉 inferred from the multistep cascade calculations was somewhat less than the tabulated value, which was determined from resonance analysis. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ullmann, J. L. (ORCID:0000000207784405)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lowering Barriers to Science and Space Weather Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

The Space Weather and Heliophysics research and modeling community has been pushing the limits of our ability to understand and predict space weather events. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) supports the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform hosting space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. We will focus on CCMC’s ongoing commitment to the principles and guidelines of the Open Science initiative. Particularly, we will discuss our work towards making our services more transparent and our library of model simulations more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will introduce our recent tools for data discovery and correlative analysis designed to further increase the value of the user-generated data and metadata. We will also present our recent work on making heliophysical models more accessible and open to the community, particularly through simplified user experience and expert domain support. We will report on our progress in establishing an inter-center infrastructure with the ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC), designed to cross organizational boundaries and provide streamlined access to a joint palette of the models.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS1979

Design of elastomer dampers for a high-speed flexible rotor

This paper describes the methods used to design elastomerically damped supports for high-speed, flexible rotor-bearing systems. The procedure consists of using a damped natural frequency analysis to identify stiffness and damping requirements for the supports over the speed range. Optimum values for these coefficients are found and unbalance response analysis is used to calculate expected rotor behavior. Equations for calculating the shear and compressive stiffness and damping of button-type elastomer mounts are given, as is a procedure for their application to the design of the elastomeric mounts. These techniques were successfully applied to the design of damped elastomeric supports for a high-speed rotor, which traverses two bending critical speeds. Results of the testing showed that the rotor was well behaved and showed linear response to unbalance. Measured modal damping exceeded expectations and tests were conducted with both high- and low-loss elastomers, enabling the exploration of the practical range of elastomer damping capability.

Tecza, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows as Probes of Environment and Blast Wave Physics. II. The Distribution of rho and Structure of the Circumburst Medium

We constrain blast wave parameters and the circumburst media ofa subsample of 10 BeppoSAX gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). For this sample we derive the values of the injected electron energy distribution index, p, and the density structure index of the circumburst medium, k, from simultaneous spectral fits to their X-ray, optical, and NIR afterglow data. The spectral fits have been done in count space and include the effects ofmetallicity, and are compared with the previously reported optical and X-ray temporal behavior. Using the blast wave model and some assumptions which include on-axis viewing and standard jet structure, constant blast wave energy, and no evolution of the microphysical parameters, we find a mean value ofp for the sample as a whole of 9.... oa -0.003.0" 2 a_ statistical analysis of the distribution demonstrates that the p-values in this sample are inconsistent with a single universal value forp at the 3 _ level or greater, which has significant implications for particle acceleration models. This approach provides us with a measured distribution ofcircumburst density structures rather than considering only the cases of k ----0 (homogeneous) and k - 2 (windlike). We find five GRBs for which k can be well constrained, and in four of these cases the circumburst medium is clearly windlike. The fifth source has a value of 0 < k < 1, consistent with a homogeneous circumburst medium.

Starling, R. L. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Locally advanced rectal cancer: qualitative and quantitative evaluation of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in restaging after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy

Purpose: To determine the added value of qualitative and quantitative evaluation of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) restaging after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (CRT). Materials and Methods: A retrospective study was performed of 21 patients with LARC treated with CRT. All patients were evaluated with 1.5 T conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and DWI (0–1000 s/mm²) before starting therapy and after neoadjuvant CRT. All included patients underwent surgery after CRT: the histopathological evaluation of surgical specimens represented the reference standard for local staging after neoadjuvant therapy. The qualitative analysis was carried out by two operators in consensus, who reviewed the conventional MR image set [T1-weighted and T2-weighted morphological sequences + dynamic contrast-enhanced sequences (DCE)] and the combined set of conventional and DW images. For the quantitative analysis, the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values were measured at each examination. For each lesion, the mean ADC value (ADCpre and ADCpost) and the ΔADC (ADCpost – ADCpre) were calculated, and values of the three groups of response [complete response (pCR), partial response (pPR), stable disease (pSD)] were compared. Results: In LARC restaging, conventional MRI showed a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 50%, with a total diagnostic capacity of 71.40%, while by adding DWI sensitivity increased to 100%, specificity to 67%, and total diagnostic capacity to 90.40%. ΔADC correlates with treatment response and a cutoff of 1.35 × 10{sup −3} mm²/s predicts the pCR with a sensitivity of 93.3% and a specificity of 83.3%. Conclusions: Adding DWI to conventional sequences may improve MRI capability to evaluate tumor response to CRT. The quantitative DWI assessment is promising, but larger studies are required.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Valuing Resilience Benefits of Microgrids for an Interconnected Island Distribution System

Extreme climate-driven events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are becoming more intense in areas exposed to these threats, requiring approaches to improve the resilience of the electrical infrastructure serving these communities. Long-duration outages caused by such high impact events propagate to economic, health, and social consequences for communities. As essential service providers, electric utilities are mandated to provide safe, economical and reliable electricity to their customers. The public is becoming less tolerant to these more frequent disruptions, especially in view of technological advances that are intended to improve power quality, reliability and resilience. One promising solution is state-of-the-art microgrids and the advanced controls employed therein. This paper presents and demonstrates an approach to technoeconomic analysis that can be used to value the avoided economic consequences of grid resilience investments, as applied to the islands of Vieques and Culebra in Puerto Rico. This valuation methodology can support policies to incorporate resilience value into any investment decision-making process, especially those which serve the public interest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1990

A numerical and analytical study of nonlinear bifurcations associated with the morphological stability of two-dimensional single crystals

The nonlinear stability of a two-dimensional single crystal of pure material in an undercooled melt is studied both analytically and numerically. The quasi-steady state approximation is used for the thermal fields, and the effects of different solid and liquid thermal conductivities, isotropic interfacial growth kinetics, and isotropic surface tension are included. The bifurcation analysis is performed by calculating the instantaneous value of the fundamental component of the local normal growth speed for an interface perturbed by a single Fourier shape component. Numerically, the fundamental component of the interfacial growth speed is found by Fourier analysis of the solution to an integrodifferential equation obeyed at the interface. Analytically, an expansion technique is used to derive a solvability condition defining each of these bifurcation points. The analytical and numerical results are in very close agreement. Almost all of the bifurcations are subcritical, and the results are presented by giving values of the Landau coefficient as a function of the different dimensionless parameters used in the model.

Brush, L. N.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Thermal Storage Applications Workshop. Volume 2: Contributed Papers

The solar thermal and the thermal and thermochemical energy storage programs are described as well as the technology requirements for both external (electrical) and internal (thermal, chemical) modes for energy storage in solar power plants. Specific technical issues addressed include thermal storage criteria for solar power plants interfacing with utility systems; optimal dispatch of storage for solar plants in a conventional electric grid; thermal storage/temperature tradeoffs for solar total energy systems; the value of energy storage for direct-replacement solar thermal power plants; systems analysis of storage in specific solar thermal power applications; the value of seasonal storage of solar energy; criteria for selection of the thermal storage system for a 10 MW(2) solar power plant; and the need for specific requirements by storage system development teams.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Nonlocal Magneto-curvature Instability in a Differentially Rotating Disk

A global mode is shown to be unstable to nonaxisymmetric perturbations in a differentially rotating Keplerian disk containing either vertical or azimuthal magnetic fields. In an unstratified cylindrical disk model, using both global eigenvalue stability analysis and linear global initial-value simulations, it is demonstrated that this instability dominates at strong magnetic fields where local standard magnetorotational instability (MRI) becomes stable. Unlike the standard MRI mode, which is concentrated in the high flow shear region, these distinct global modes (with low azimuthal mode numbers) are extended in the global domain and are Alfvén-continuum-driven unstable modes. As its mode structure and relative dominance over MRI are inherently determined by the global spatial curvature as well as the flow shear in the presence of a magnetic field, we call it the magneto-curvature (magneto-spatial-curvature) instability. Consistent with the linear analysis, as the field strength is increased in the nonlinear simulations, a transition from MRI-driven turbulence to a state dominated by global nonaxisymmetric modes is obtained. This global instability could therefore be a source of nonlinear transport in accretion disks at a higher magnetic field than predicted by local models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Density split statistics: Cosmological constraints from counts and lensing in cells in DES Y1 and SDSS data

Here, we derive cosmological constraints from the probability distribution function (PDF) of evolved large-scale matter density fluctuations. We do this by splitting lines of sight by density based on their count of tracer galaxies, and by measuring both gravitational shear around and counts-in-cells in overdense and underdense lines of sight, in Dark Energy Survey (DES) First Year and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. Our analysis uses a perturbation theory model and is validated using N-body simulation realizations and log-normal mocks. It allows us to constrain cosmology, bias and stochasticity of galaxies with respect to matter density and, in addition, the skewness of the matter density field. From a Bayesian model comparison, we find that the data weakly prefer a connection of galaxies and matter that is stochastic beyond Poisson fluctuations on ≤ 20 arcmin angular smoothing scale. The two stochasticity models we fit yield DES constraints on the matter density Ω m = 0.26 +0.04 –0.03 and Ω m = 0.28 +0.05 –0.04 that are consistent with each other. These values also agree with the DES analysis of galaxy and shear two-point functions (3x2pt, DES Collaboration et al.) that only uses second moments of the PDF. Constraints on σ8 are model dependent (σ 8 = 0.97 +0.07 –0.06 and 0.80 +0.06 –0.07 for the two stochasticity models), but consistent with each other and with the 3 x 2pt results if stochasticity is at the low end of the posterior range. As an additional test of gravity, counts and lensing in cells allow to compare the skewness S 3 of the matter density PDF to its ΛCDM prediction. We find no evidence of excess skewness in any model or data set, with better than 25 per cent relative precision in the skewness estimate from DES alone.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stability analysis of a one-dimensional multiphysics model of a molten salt fast reactor

Reactor designs with a fast neutron spectrum have recently moved into the research focus for possible Generation IV reactor concepts - a representative of which is the molten salt fast reactor (MSFR). In order to assess the safety and reliability of this reactor concept, it is necessary to obtain knowledge of the system behaviour. An important part of this research concerns the dynamical stability of the MSFR. Research regarding the MSFR stability so far has either been using linearized models for stability criteria or only been examining certain transients at fixed parameter values. This work delivers a comprehensive stability analysis for a non-linearized MSFR model, and a wide range of values for all relevant parameters. For this purpose, a one-dimensional MSFR model was set up, taking neutron kinetics and thermal hydraulics in the form of a system of differential equations into account. The stability of this model was investigated by means of the numerical tool MATCONT, which was used to monitor the evolution of a so-called fixed-point solution, here referring to the steady state at operating conditions of the system, while system parameters got varied. The MATCONT analyses showed no loss of stability for any of the considered parameter variations and no solutions that might co-exist in parallel with the steady-state fixed-point solution. Therefore these results indicate a stable fixed point to which all solution transients converge, making the considered MSFR model insusceptible to deviations from the equilibrium. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning for surrogate process models of bioproduction pathways

Technoeconomic analysis and life-cycle assessment are critical to guiding and prioritizing bench-scale experiments and to evaluating economic and environmental performance of biofuel or biochemical production processes at scale. Traditionally, commercial process simulation tools have been used to develop detailed models for these purposes. However, developing and running such models can be costly and computationally intensive, which limits the degree to which they can be shared and reproduced in the broader research community. This study evaluates the potential of an automated machine learning approach to develop surrogate models based on conventional process simulation models. The analysis focuses on several high-value biofuels and bioproducts for which pathways of production from biomass feedstocks have been well-established. The results demonstrate that surrogate models can be an accurate and effective tool for approximating the cost, mass and energy balance outputs of more complex process simulations at a fraction of the computational expense.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Two body relativistic wave equations

The relativistic quantum mechanics of two interacting particles is considered. We first present a covariant formulation of kinematics and of reduced phase space, giving a short outline of the classical results. We then quantize the systems for the scalar–scalar, fermion–scalar and fermion–fermion cases. We study the spectrum and the spherical waves solutions of the free case. The interaction with central scalar and vector potentials is introduced and the explicit equations are deduced. The one particle and the non relativistic limits are recovered and the general lines for the solution of the boundary value problems are given. We make a numerical analysis of the first two cases with Coulomb interaction. For the two fermions we largely revisit the model we had previously derived in order to uniformize the description for all the three cases. In order to give a complete review we report in the Appendix some of the most interesting results obtained for atomic and mesonic systems with Coulomb and Cornell potential interactions respectively.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2019

Linear Analysis of a Two-Parachute System Undergoing Pendulum Motion

Motion resembling that of a pendulum undergoing large-amplitude oscillation was ob- served during a series of flight tests of an unoccupied Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) drop-test vehicle. Large excursions away from vertical by the capsule could cause it to strike the ground or ocean at a large angle with respect to vertical, with an undesirable attitude with respect to heading, or with a large horizontal or vertical speed. These conditions are to be avoided because they would endanger the occupants of the capsule in an actual mission. Pendulum motion is intimately related to a parachute’s aerodynamic normal force coefficient, which is a nonlinear function of angle of attack. An analytical investigation of the dynamics of pendulum motion is undertaken with the aid of a simplified model of the physical system and the assumption that the normal force coefficient is a linear function of angle of attack in the neighborhood of a value corresponding to stable equilibrium. The analysis leads to a simple relationship for the location of a pivot point, which provides insights that are consistent with previous studies.

Roithmayr, Carlos M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-Static Time Series Fatigue Simulation for PV Inverter Semiconductors with Long-Term Solar Profile

Power system simulations with long-term data tend to have large time steps varying from one second to a few minutes. However, for PV inverter semiconductors, the minimum thermal stresses cycle is with line frequency. This requires the time step of the fatigue simulation to be much smaller than the line period. This small time step results in poor simulation speed, especially for long-term simulations. This paper proposes a fast fatigue simulation for inverter semiconductors using the quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulation concept. The fatigue analysis typically focuses on the peak and valley values of a strain and neglect the transients from peaks to valleys. The proposed simulation utilizes this property of fatigue analysis and calculates the steady state of the semiconductor junction temperature only. The resulting time step of the fatigue simulation is 15 minutes, which is consistent with the solar dataset without losing accuracy.

fast simulation↗
NASA NTRS1972

Dynamics of cavitating cascades

Brief accounts of the theoretical research conducted on the unsteady cavitation characteristics of liquid rocket engine turbopumps are reported. The objective is to produce estimates of the cavitation compliance and other unsteady characteristics which could then be used in analysis of the pogo instability. Blade cavitation is the particular pheonomenon which is investigated and line arized free streamline methods were employed in both quasistatic and complete dynamic cascade analyses of the unsteady flow. The simpler quasistatic analysis was applied to particular turbopumps but yielded values of compliances significantly smaller than those indirectly obtained from experiments. Reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. The complete dynamic analysis presents a new problem in fundamental hydrodynamics and, though the basic solution is presented, numerical results have not as yet been obtained.

Acosta, A. J.↗