Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Large deviations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 973 records · Page 54

Observation of photon-induced W+W- production in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV using the ATLAS detector

This letter reports the observation of photon-induced production of W -boson pairs, γγ → W W . The analysis uses 139 fb -1 of LHC proton–proton collision data taken at s = 13 TeV TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment during the years 2015–2018. The measurement is performed selecting one electron and one muon, corresponding to the decay of the diboson system as W W → e ± νμ ∓ ν final state. The background-only hypothesis is rejected with a significance of well above 5 standard deviations consistent with the expectation from Monte Carlo simulation. A cross section for the γγ → W W process of 3.13 ± 0.31(stat.)±0.28(syst.) fb is measured in a fiducial volume close to the acceptance of the detector, by requiring an electron and a muon of opposite signs with large dilepton transverse momentum and exactly zero additional charged particles. This is found to be in agreement with the Standard Model prediction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observation of structure in the J/ψ-pair mass spectrum

Using proton-proton collision data at centre-of-mass energies of $\sqrt{s}$ = 7, 8 and 13 TeV recorded by the LHCb experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb -1 , the invariant mass spectrum of J/ψ pairs is studied. A narrow structure around 6.9 GeV/c 2 matching the lineshape of a resonance and a broad structure just above twice the J/ψ mass are observed. The deviation of the data from nonresonant J/ψ-pair production is above five standard deviations in the mass region between 6.2 and 7.4 GeV/c 2 , covering predicted masses of states composed of four charm quarks. The mass and natural width of the narrow X(6900) structure are measured assuming a Breit-Wigner lineshape.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Collective strong coupling with homogeneous Rabi frequencies using a 3D lumped element microwave resonator

We design and implement 3D-lumped element microwave cavities that spatially focus magnetic fields to a small mode volume. They allow coherent and uniform coupling to electron spins hosted by nitrogen vacancy centers in diamond. We achieve large homogeneous single spin coupling rates, with an enhancement of more than one order of magnitude compared to standard 3D cavities with a fundamental resonance at 3 GHz. Finite element simulations confirm that the magnetic field distribution is homogeneous throughout the entire sample volume, with a root mean square deviation of 1.54%. With a sample containing 10{sup 17} nitrogen vacancy electron spins, we achieve a collective coupling strength of Ω = 12 MHz, a cooperativity factor C = 27, and clearly enter the strong coupling regime. This allows to interface a macroscopic spin ensemble with microwave circuits, and the homogeneous Rabi frequency paves the way to manipulate the full ensemble population in a coherent way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A grid of MHD models for stellar mass loss and spin-down rates of solar analogs

Stellar winds are believed to be the dominant factor in the spin-down of stars over time. However, stellar winds of solar analogs are poorly constrained due to observational challenges. In this paper, we present a grid of magnetohydrodynamic models to study and quantify the values of stellar mass loss and angular momentum loss rates as a function of the stellar rotation period, magnetic dipole component, and coronal base density. We derive simple scaling laws for the loss rates as a function of these parameters, and constrain the possible mass loss rate of stars with thermally driven winds. Despite the success of our scaling law in matching the results of the model, we find a deviation between the 'solar dipole' case and a real case based on solar observations that overestimates the actual solar mass loss rate by a factor of three. This implies that the model for stellar fields might require a further investigation with additional complexity. Mass loss rates in general are largely controlled by the magnetic field strength, with the wind density varying in proportion to the confining magnetic pressure B {sup 2}. We also find that the mass loss rates obtained using our grid models drop much faster with the increase in rotation period than scaling laws derived using observed stellar activity. For main-sequence solar-like stars, our scaling law for angular momentum loss versus poloidal magnetic field strength retrieves the well-known Skumanich decline of angular velocity with time, Ω{sub *}∝t {sup –1/2}, if the large-scale poloidal magnetic field scales with rotation rate as B{sub p}∝Ω{sub ⋆}{sup 2}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probabilistic Short-Term Wind Forecasting Based on Pinball Loss Optimization: Preprint

Probabilistic wind power forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in wind output have the potential to aid in the economic grid integration of wind power at large penetration levels. In this paper, a novel probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is proposed, in conjunction with a multi-model machine learning based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework. By assuming the pointforecasted value as the mean at each point, one unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of a predictive distribution at each forecasting point is determined by minimizing the pinball loss. A surrogate model is developed to represent the unknown distribution parameter as a function of deterministic forecasts. This surrogate model can be used together with deterministic forecasts to predict the unknown distribution parameter and thereby generate probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed method has improved the pinball loss by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ASSESSMENT OF SYSTEMATIC CHROMATIC ERRORS THAT IMPACT SUB-1% PHOTOMETRIC PRECISION IN LARGE-AREA SKY SURVEYS

Meeting the science goals for many current and future ground-based optical large-area sky surveys requires that the calibrated broadband photometry is both stable in time and uniform over the sky to 1% precision or better. Past and current surveys have achieved photometric precision of 1%–2% by calibrating the survey’s stellar photometry with repeated measurements of a large number of stars observed in multiple epochs. The calibration techniques employed by these surveys only consider the relative frame-by-frame photometric zeropoint offset and the focal plane position-dependent illumination corrections, which are independent of the source color. However, variations in the wavelength dependence of the atmospheric transmission and the instrumental throughput induce source color-dependent systematic errors. These systematic errors must also be considered to achieve the most precise photometric measurements. In this paper, we examine such systematic chromatic errors (SCEs) using photometry from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example. We first define a natural magnitude system for DES and calculate the systematic errors on stellar magnitudes when the atmospheric transmission and instrumental throughput deviate from the natural system. We conclude that the SCEs caused by the change of airmass in each exposure, the change of the precipitable water vapor and aerosol in the atmosphere over time, and the non-uniformity of instrumental throughput over the focal plane can be up to 2% in some bandpasses. We then compare the calculated SCEs with the observed DES data. For the test sample data, we correct these errors using measurements of the atmospheric transmission and instrumental throughput from auxiliary calibration systems. The residual after correction is less than 0.3%. Moreover, we calculate such SCEs for Type Ia supernovae and elliptical galaxies and find that the chromatic errors for non-stellar objects are redshift-dependent and can be larger than those for stars at certain redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modelling the BAO feature in bispectrum

We investigate how well a simple leading order perturbation theory model of the bispectrum can fit the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature in the measured bispectrum monopole of galaxies. Previous works showed that perturbative models of the galaxy bispectrum start failing at the wavenumbers of k ∼ 0.1 h Mpc −1 . We show that when the BAO feature in the bispectrum is separated, it can be successfully modelled up to much higher wavenumbers. We validate our modelling on GLAM simulations that were run with and without the BAO feature in the initial conditions. We also quantify the amount of systematic error due to BAO template being offset from the true cosmology. We find that the systematic errors do not exceed 0.3 per cent for reasonable deviations of up to 3 per cent from the true value of the sound horizon.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Early scrambling and capped BTZ geometries

Geodesic probes in certain horizonless microstate geometries experience extreme tidal forces long before reaching the region where these geometries differ significantl from the extremal BTZ black hole. The purpose of this paper is to show that this behavior is a universal feature of all geometries that have a long BTZ throat that terminates in a cap, regardless of the details of this cap. Hence, incoming probes will scramble into the microstate structure before they encounter the region where the charges of the solution are sourced, and the reason for this premature scrambling is the amplification of tiny geometrical deviations by the relativistic speeds of the probes. To illustrate the phenomenon, we construct a new family of smooth horizonless superstratum microstate geometries, dual to D1-D5 CFT states whose momentum charge is carried by excitations on CFT strands of length k. We also show that, in the large-k limit, these new superstrata resemble a blackened supertube solution everywhere except in the near-supertube region. Thus they resolve the singularity caused by the naive back-reaction of modes with non-linear instabilities near evanescent ergosurfaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Inclusive and differential cross-section measurements of $ t\overline{t}Z$ production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector, including EFT and spin-correlation interpretations

Measurements of both the inclusive and differential production cross sections of a top-quark-top-antiquark pair in association with a Z boson ($t\overline{t}Z$) are presented. Final states with two, three or four isolated leptons (electrons or muons) are targeted. The measurements use the data recorded by the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 . The inclusive cross section is measured to be ${\sigma}_{t\overline{t}Z}$ = 0.86 ± 0.04 (stat.) ± 0.04 (syst.) pb and found to be in agreement with the most advanced Standard Model predictions. The differential measurements are presented as a function of a number of observables that probe the kinematics of the $t\overline{t}Z$ system. Both the absolute and normalised differential cross-section measurements are performed at particle level and parton level for specific fiducial volumes, and are compared with NLO+NNLL theoretical predictions. The results are interpreted in the framework of Standard Model effective field theory and used to set limits on a large number of dimension-6 operators involving the top quark. The first measurement of spin correlations in $t\overline{t}Z$ events is presented: the results are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations, and the null hypothesis of no spin correlations is disfavoured with a significance of 1.8 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Validating compositional fluid flow simulations using 4D seismic interpretation and vice versa in the SECARB Early Test—A critical review

We report on strengths and weaknesses of 4D seismic interpretation as a technique for monitoring carbon dioxide that was injected as part of a large scale test associated with commercial enhanced oil recovery (EOR) at Cranfield Field, Mississippi, USA. The goals of the monitoring effort are 1) to make measurements to verify that the CO 2 is contained in the reservoir according to operational designs and model predictions, and 2) that if there are deviations, to provide data which can be used to update the earth models and determine if any mitigation is needed. Our work uses a compositional numerical simulation to model CO 2 flow in the reservoir and compares the results with estimates of changes in seismic properties between a pre-injection and a survey after more than 2 million metric tons injected. The complicated physics of the problem in Cranfield field present challenges to seismic interpretations. These findings reflect partial agreement between the results of the numerical simulation and the seismic interpretations. Possible causes of discrepancies among the fluid flow model and multiple interpretations of the same seismic data sets performed with different work flows illuminates the types of uncertainties that should be considered to achieve the goals of monitoring.

4D seismic↗

Inclusive search for a vector-like T quark with charge $\frac{2}{3}$ in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV

A search is performed for a massive new vector-like quark T, with charge 2/3, that is pair produced together with its antiparticle in proton-proton collisions. The data were collected by the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider in 2012 at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.5 inverse femtobarns. The T quark is assumed to decay into three different final states, bW, tZ, and tH. The search is carried out using events with at least one isolated lepton. No deviations from standard model expectations are observed, and lower limits are set on the T quark mass at 95% confidence level. The lower limit lies between 687 and 782 GeV for all possible values of the branching fractions into the three different final states assuming strong production. These limits are the most stringent constraints to date on the existence of such a quark.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Disrupted NOS2 metabolism drives myoblast response to wasting-associated cytokines

Highlights: • Amino acid metabolism is impacted in myoblasts treated with cancer cell conditioned media. • Inflammatory cytokines induce nitric oxide synthase 2 in myoblasts. • Elevated nitric oxide synthase 2 activity impairs myoblast proliferation and differentiation. Skeletal muscle wasting drives negative clinical outcomes and is associated with a spectrum of pathologies including cancer. Cancer cachexia is a multi-factorial syndrome that encompasses skeletal muscle wasting and remains understudied, despite being a frequent and serious co-morbidity. Deviation from the homeostatic balance between breakdown and regeneration leads to muscle wasting disorders, such as cancer cachexia. Muscle stem cells (MuSCs) are the cellular compartment responsible for muscle regeneration, which makes MuSCs an intriguing target in the context of wasting muscle. Molecular studies investigating MuSCs and skeletal muscle wasting largely focus on transcriptional changes, but our group and others propose that metabolic changes are another layer of cellular regulation underlying MuSC dysfunction in cancer cachexia. In the present study, we combined gene expression and non-targeted metabolomic profiling of myoblasts exposed to wasting conditions (cancer cell conditioned media, CC-CM) to derive a more complete picture of the myoblast response to wasting factors. After mapping these features to annotated pathways, we found that more than half of the mapped pathways were amino acid-related, linking global amino acid metabolic disruption to conditioned media-induced myoblast defects. Notably, arginine metabolism was a highly enriched pathway in combined metabolomic and transcriptomic data. Arginine catabolism generates nitric oxide (NO), an important signaling molecule known to have negative effects on mature muscle. We hypothesize that tumor-derived disruptions in Nitric Oxide Synthase (NOS)2-regulated arginine catabolism impair differentiation of MuSCs. The work presented here further investigates the effect of NOS2 overactivity on myoblast proliferation and differentiation. We show that NOS2 inhibition is sufficient to rescue wasting phenotypes associated with inflammatory cytokines. Ultimately, this work provides new insights into MuSC biology and opens up potential therapeutic avenues for addressing disrupted MuSC dynamics in cancer cachexia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dipole Moment Calculations Using Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory and Hybrid Multiconfiguration Pair-Density Functional Theory

The dipole moment is the molecular property that most directly indicates molecular polarity. The accuracy of computed dipole moments depends strongly on the quality of the calculated electron density, and the breakdown of single-reference methods for strongly correlated systems can lead to poor predictions of the dipole moments in those cases. Here, we derive the analytical expression for obtaining the electric dipole moment by multiconfiguration pair density functional theory (MCPDFT), and we assess the accuracy of MC-PDFT for predicting dipole moments at equilibrium and nonequilibrium geometries. We show that MC-PDFT dipole moment curves have reasonable behavior even for stretched geometries, and they significantly improve upon the CASSCF results by capturing more electron correlation. Herein, the analysis of a dataset consisting of 18 first-row transition metal diatomics and 6 main-group polyatomic molecules with multireference character suggests that MC-PDFT and its hybrid extension (HMC-PDFT) perform comparably to CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods and have a mean unsigned deviation of 0.2–0.3 D with respect to the best available dipole moment reference values. We explored the dependence of the predicted dipole moments upon the choice of the on-top density functional and active space, and we recommend the tPBE and hybrid tPBE0 on-top choices for the functionals combined with the moderate correlated participating orbital scheme for selecting the active space. With these choices, the mean unsigned deviations (in debyes) of the calculated equilibrium dipole moments from the best estimates are 0.77 for CASSCF, 0.29 for MC-PDFT, 0.24 for HMCPDFT, 0.28 for CASPT2, and 0.25 for MRCISD+Q. These results are encouraging because the computational cost of MC-PDFT or HMC-PDFT is largely reduced compared to the CASPT2 and MRCISD+Q methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Customizable two-species kinetic equilibria for nonuniform low-beta plasmas

Here, two methods are developed for constructing self-consistent two-species kinetic equilibria for low-beta electrostatic plasmas, in which the magnetic field is uniform and fixed in time. The first method uses Taylor series approximations to construct distribution functions that can be specified analytically. The second method relies on numerically solving a nonlinear ordinary differential equation and produces exact—to numerical precision—equilibria. In both methods, the equilibrium distribution functions for ions and electrons are expressed in terms of constants of motion and satisfy the steady-state Vlasov-Poisson equation system. Provided that the ion drift speed does not exceed the ion thermal speed, the equilibria can be specified with customizable density and electrostatic potential profiles. The methods can thereby be tailored to different applications and are successfully applied to construct kinetic equilibria for cross-field plasmas with sheared flows, large density variations, and different levels of magnetization. The equilibria are used to initialize fourth-order finite-volume Vlasov-Poisson simulations in (x, v x , v y ) coordinates and the associated temporal evolution is used to assess the accuracy of each method. Lastly, the low-amplitude deviations observed in these simulations demonstrate that the kinetic equilibria are robust and that they provide a valuable means of studying the dynamics of nonuniform magnetized plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nonequilibrium effects in high-gain inertial confinement fusion

Recent experimental demonstrations of ignition and target gain in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) have stimulated interest in exploring the fundamental physics of violent deuterium-tritium (DT) burn in high-gain ICF targets. A significant DT-burn fraction is a necessary condition for high energy gain and large neutron yields (>100MJ). Using classical molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations and a hybrid fluid-kinetic model, we examine how a large fraction of low-energy 𝛼 particles can kick D and T ions out of equilibrium in high-gain ICF targets. The MD results suggest that (1) temperatures of 𝑇 𝐷 and 𝑇 𝑇 can differ by as much as ∼20% of their mean temperature and (2) the deviation of the DT energy distribution from the Maxwell-Boltzmann function can exceed ∼30%. Some of these MD observations, such as the preferential heating of D ions by low-energy 𝛼 particles and the temperature separation, can be explained by a proposed hybrid fluid-kinetic model. Furthermore, the implication of such nonequilibrium effects on the DT reactivity is also discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

WE-H-BRC-05: Catastrophic Error Metrics for Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Intuitive evaluation of complex radiotherapy treatments is impractical, while data transfer anomalies create the potential for catastrophic treatment delivery errors. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, logical scrutiny can be applied to patient-specific machine settings. Such tests can be automated, applied at the point of treatment delivery and can be dissociated from prior states of the treatment plan, potentially revealing errors introduced early in the process. Methods: Analytical metrics were formulated for conventional and intensity modulated RT (IMRT) treatments. These were designed to assess consistency between monitor unit settings, wedge values, prescription dose and leaf positioning (IMRT). Institutional metric averages for 218 clinical plans were stratified over multiple anatomical sites. Treatment delivery errors were simulated using a commercial treatment planning system and metric behavior assessed via receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) analysis. A positive result was returned if the erred plan metric value exceeded a given number of standard deviations, e.g. 2. The finding was declared true positive if the dosimetric impact exceeded 25%. ROC curves were generated over a range of metric standard deviations. Results: Data for the conventional treatment metric indicated standard deviations of 3%, 12%, 11%, 8%, and 5 % for brain, pelvis, abdomen, lung and breast sites, respectively. Optimum error declaration thresholds yielded true positive rates (TPR) between 0.7 and 1, and false positive rates (FPR) between 0 and 0.2. Two proposed IMRT metrics possessed standard deviations of 23% and 37%. The superior metric returned TPR and FPR of 0.7 and 0.2, respectively, when both leaf position and MUs were modelled. Isolation to only leaf position errors yielded TPR and FPR values of 0.9 and 0.1. Conclusion: Logical tests can reveal treatment delivery errors and prevent large, catastrophic errors. Analytical metrics are able to identify errors in monitor units, wedging and leaf positions with favorable sensitivity and specificity. In part by Varian.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Results of experiments devoted to searches for 2K capture on {sup 78}Kr and for the double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe with the aid of proportional counters

A brief description of two low-background setups deployed at the Baksan Neutrino Observatory (Institute for Nuclear Research, Russian Academy of Sciences) and intended for searches for two types of double-beta decay of inert-gas isotopes-2K capture on {sup 78}Kr and the double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe-is given. The two setups in question have similar structures and employ identical large high-pressure copper proportional counters as detectors. Upon a treatment of data from measurements with krypton samples differing in the content of the isotope {sup 78}Kr, the spectrum for an enriched sample revealed an excess of events at a statistical-significance level of about two standard deviations (2{sigma}). If one attributes this excess to 2K(2{nu}) capture on {sup 78}Kr, the respective half-life is T{sub 1/2} = 1.4{sub -0.7}{sup +2.3} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 22} yr at a 90% C.L. A treatment of data from measurements with xenon samples differing in content of the isotope {sup 136}Xe led to the appearance of an excess of events in the spectrum for an enriched sample at a statistical-significance level of about 2.2{sigma}. If one assumes that this excess is due to the two-neutrino double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe, then the respective half-life is T{sub 1/2} = 5.8{sub -1.8}{sup +4.7} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 21} yr.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗