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Earth Observations and Integrative Models in Support of Food and Water Security

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Water Resources

General Purpose Data-Driven Monitoring for Space Operations

As modern space propulsion and exploration systems improve in capability and efficiency, their designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems, using traditional parameter limit checking, model-based, or rule-based methods, is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grow. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. System health can be monitored by comparing real-time operating data with these nominal characterizations, providing detection of anomalous data signatures indicative of system faults or failures. Data-driven techniques have a number of advantages over other methods for monitoring complex space vehicles. Unlike model-based systems, the developer does not need to understand or encode the internal operation of the system. The knowledge required to monitor the system is automatically derived from archived data from system operation. Unlike rule-based systems, data-driven systems do not require system analysts to define nominal relationships among sensors. Analysts can and often do determine these relationships for a system with few sensors; it is more difficult to analytically determine the nominal relationship among a large number of sensors. Data-driven techniques are not limited to low-dimensional spaces and work as effectively with dozens of parameters as they do with a few. Knowledge bases formed by data-driven techniques are also easy to update. As the operating envelope of the monitored system is expanded, data-driven techniques can be quickly retrained to incorporate the new behavior into the knowledge base. The expertise and time-consuming process of updating a model or rule base to maintain consistency with the new operation is not required. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. This characterization, or model, of nominal operation is stored in a knowledge base that can be used for real-time system monitoring or analysis of archived events. System data is compared with the nominal IMS model to produce a measure of how well current system behavior matches the normal behavior defined by the training data. Significant deviations from the nominal system model can provide alerts to system malfunctions or precursors of significant failures. The scope of IMS based data-driven monitoring applications continues to expand with current development activities. Successful IMS deployment in the International Space Station (ISS) flight control room to monitor ISS attitude control systems has led to applications in other ISS flight control disciplines, such as thermal control. It has also generated interest in data-driven monitoring capability for Constellation, NASA's program to replace the Space Shuttle with new launch vehicles and spacecraft capable of returning astronauts to the moon, and then on to Mars. Several projects are currently underway to evaluate and mature the IMS technology and complementary tools for use in the Constellation program. These include an experiment on board the Air Force TacSat-3 satellite, and ground systems monitoring for NASA's Ares I-X and Ares I launch vehicles. The TacSat-3 Vehicle System Management (TVSM) project is a software experiment to integrate fault and anomaly detection algorithms and diagnosis tools with executive and adaptive planning functions contained in the flight software on-board the Air Force Research Laboratory TacSat-3 satellite. The TVSM software package will be uploaded after launch to monitor spacecraft subsystems such as power and guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C). It will analyze data in real-time to demonstrate detection of faults and unusual conditions, diagnose problems, and react to threats to spacecraft health and mission goals. The experiment will demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of integrated system health management (ISHM) technologies with both ground and on-board experiments. Initially, the TVSM software will run open loop, providing system health information and recommendations to ground operators, without automatically performing fault-mitigating corrective actions. After the end of the satellite's mission, closed loop tests combining TVSM monitoring and diagnosis with reactive capabilities by the flight software will be performed. In addition to monitoring for long periods of actual operation, the experiment will include fault injection into TacSat-3 data as well as commanded operations to test and evaluate automatic ISHM monitoring and recovery under controlled conditions.

Satellites

A quality-agnostic combinatoric cost estimation model for large-format directed energy deposition metal additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) processes are amenable to synergistic combination into multi-process AM systems due to similar requirements for automation and energy sources. This work analyzes the economic performance of such DED AM systems from a quality-agnostic combinatoric standpoint with a model that calculates lowest-cost system combinations based on part geometry and process performance metrics. Common DED AM systems research focuses on a single process and does not consider the process, system, and application in the context of all possible system combinations (e.g., the combined set of process selection(s), motion system(s), and process hardware), leading to limited applicability of the resulting DED AM systems to cost-sensitive components such as those found in energy generation applications. The model developed herein incorporates the capital, material, and energy costs associated with DED AM system combinations into a predictive tool for estimating part and system cost, the output of which is intended to guide deployment of finite research and development resources towards DED AM system combinations with the lowest costs and greatest likelihood of economic impact. The DED AM systems identified by this framework may enable domestic production of the large conventionally cast and forged components necessary for energy generation.

Shanafield, Alexandra [ORNL]

Impact of Crystalline Phases on Low-Activity Waste Glass Durability: Insights from PCT and VHT

During vitrification of nuclear wastes, slow cooling along the container centerline promotes crystalline phase formation, which can alter residual glass composition and reduce chemical durability. This study investigates the effects of crystalline phases on the chemical durability of low-activity waste (LAW) borosilicate glasses using the product consistency test (PCT) and vapor hydration test (VHT) on container centerline cooled (CCC) samples. A preliminary model (R2 = 0.88) was developed to predict CCC PCT responses based on glass composition, PCT data from quenched glasses, and measured crystal fractions. Using the latest LAW glass dataset, the feasibility of predictive modeling is evaluated, limitations in current data and methods are identified, and challenges for improving model accuracy are discussed to guide future data collection and model development.

borosilicate glass

Energy-Optimal Vehicle Longitudinal Motion Control via Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle and Ultra-Local Model

Longitudinal vehicle motion control is essential for enhancing performance and optimizing a vehicle’s energy usage. However, it remains a challenging task due to the nonlinear and uncertain nature of vehicle dynamics, along with varying driving conditions. This paper presents a novel ultra-local optimal control approach based on Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle (PMP) that circumvents the need for detailed system identification by employing an ultra-local model. The control objective is to minimize the total energy consumption under boundary conditions while ensuring smooth traction force generation. The proposed approach is evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle model in three representative scenarios: (i) nominal driving, (ii) a change in tire road friction coefficient (TRFC) from 0.5 to 0.65 and road slope from 0% to 5% during the maneuver, with target velocity unchanged, and (iii) a change in target velocity from 20 m/s to 0 m/s during the maneuver, while maintaining nominal TRFC and slope conditions. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method delivers robust performance, effectively balancing consumption and tracking accuracy in all tested scenarios.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)

Novel additive manufacturing for plasma facing materials ‐ creating a research pathway for minority students

This project addresses two critical and intertwined challenges in fusion energy, namely the shortage of a broadly trained scientific workforce and the lack of scalable manufacturing solutions for plasma-facing components (PFCs). Through a collaboration among Florida International University (FIU), Miami Dade College (MDC), and Purdue University, the project established structured, reproducible educational and research pathways that recruit and advance students from institutions historically outside the fusion energy enterprise, building the human capital that this field urgently needs. The project integrates the complementary research strengths of FIU and Purdue to investigate flash sintering as a transformative processing route for tungsten-based PFCs. Unlike conventional sintering approaches, flash sintering offers rapid densification at significantly reduced thermal budgets, making it a compelling candidate for fabricating complex tungsten geometries that must withstand extreme plasma-facing environments. Systematic experimental and modeling efforts will elucidate the fundamental mechanisms governing microstructure evolution, grain boundary chemistry, and thermomechanical response during flash sintering — knowledge that is presently lacking but essential for translating this technology into reliable manufacturing practice. The convergence of workforce development and cutting-edge manufacturing research positions this project to deliver measurable, durable impact: a pipeline of fusion-ready researchers cultivated through expanded institutional partnerships, and a validated materials processing framework that accelerates domestic readiness for next-generation fusion reactor construction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

In-Flight Calibration of ESA Hera’s Hyperscout-H Imager

ESA’s Hera space mission is on its way to the mission target, the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos. HyperScout-H, one of the instruments onboard Hera, is a hyperspectral imager operating in the visible and near-infrared regions between 0.65 and 0.95 μm. HyperScout-H will enable a detailed assessment of the composition of both objects, Didymos and its satellite Dimorphos, the characterization of space weathering effects, and the possible presence of exogenous material on their surfaces. To monitor instrument functionality, calibration exposures are acquired regularly. This article describes the in-flight calibrations carried out for HyperScout-H during the commissioning and cruise phases. Bias and dark exposures, as well as stellar field observations, were acquired several times after launch. We update the calibration data and monitor instrument performance in the space environment. In addition, images of Earth and Moon were acquired from distances of 1.5 × 10 6 to 2.0 × 10 6 km, and Mars and its satellite were imaged during the flyby. In five images, the surface of Mars fills the entire field of view, enabling cross-validation of HyperScout-H results with those reported by other Mars missions. We characterize the detector under in-flight operational conditions. The calibration data indicate that the bias pattern is stable, the dark current remains negligible for short exposures, and the detector response is highly linear. We quantify the field-of-view alignment and geometric distortion, and evaluate the point spread function based on the stellar field observations. Stellar observations and Mars swing-by data provide updated radiometric calibration constants, suggesting that in-flight conditions have slightly modified the detector’s spectral response. In-flight calibrations are essential to ensure data quality and reliability.

Image Processing

Theory of the thermionic current beyond the traditional space charge limit enabled by trapped ions in the virtual cathode

We show that trapped ions in virtual cathode potential wells can raise the transmitted current of emitted electrons into a plasma much closer to the full emission than is predicted by cathode sheath theories without trapped ions. The transmitted current is controlled by the well barrier voltage, which must adjust to balance the creation of low-energy ions within the well, and their loss. Our model considers the case of a plasma-facing cathode where trapped ions are created passively via charge-exchange collisions and lost passively via thermal leakage over the well. We quantify these rates and estimate the current in terms of system parameters for thermionic emission into a plasma with several cathode geometries. A general prediction is that the current as a function of emitted flux does not saturate at the traditional space charge limit (the onset of a well) but can reach far higher values until the trapped ion balance breaks down, causing instability. The maximum stable current depends on parameters but in principle can be arbitrarily high if active techniques are used to manipulate the trapped ion balance. We conclude that major improvements in plasma technologies with hot cathodes might be achieved by optimizing the current enhancement enabled by trapped ions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Integrated Process-Structure-Property Simulations for Additive Manufacturing Using the Open-Source Materialite Package

The microstructure and properties of additively manufactured (AM) metals are strongly dependent on process conditions. Therefore, process-structure-property (PSP) simulations are a useful tool for exploring process parameter space, studying process variations, and quantifying uncertainty in material properties. However, integrating process-structure and structure-property simulations often involves connecting multiple software packages. Each package may use unique data structures and require substantial domain knowledge. This presentation demonstrates PSP simulation capabilities of Materialite, an open-source package developed at NASA Langley Research Center. Materialite simplifies model linkages by using a common data structure and model interface, enabling straightforward simulation across a PSP model chain. Physics-based models, including kinetic Monte Carlo and crystal plasticity, are implemented within the package. The model interface is also intended to simplify implementation of new models and enable integration with external simulation tools. Example use cases include uncertainty quantification with PSP models and GPU-accelerated powder bed fusion AM process models.

additive manufacturing

Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID): A Dryland Research Agenda and Campaign Strategy

Dryland ecosystems cover 41% of Earth’s land surfaces, account for 44% of cultivated lands and 60% of food sources, and make large contributions to the global water and carbon cycles. However, these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented extremes including heatwaves, floods, and droughts as well as hotter temperatures and often declining water resource availability. These ecosystems are some of the most challenging to monitor given their high temporal variability with rapid response to their environment as well as vast spatial variability with intermixing of different plant species and life forms amongst bare soil coverage. The Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) campaign was selected by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as a scoping study to develop a research agenda for a dryland field campaign. Here, we detail our ARID science research agenda and implementation plan that were developed based on an extensive community engagement effort in over 160 events with over a thousand scientists, land managers, and Tribal communities between 2023 and 2024. The selected science themes cover drought and climate variability, ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity, carbon cycle interannual variability and trends, and social ecological systems (land management and adaptation). We then detail our remote sensing, modeling, and field-based strategies to capture high temporal and high spatial resolution processes. Finally, our implementation strategy is presented which includes focus area selections in a core intensive western U.S. domain and distributed international domains. This strategy includes our overarching guiding principles of using multi-temporal airborne acquisitions and super sites as well as enhancing land management in co-development with end-user partners. While originally developed for NASA, our ARID report creates a blueprint for any future dryland field campaign, at any scale, that can be implemented widely for foundational and applied science objectives.

drylands

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

CFD Modeling of Bi-Directional PMD inside Cryogenic Propellant Tanks Onboard Parabolic Flights

Future cryogenic propulsion systems will require efficient methods with which to transfer cryogenic propellants from a depot storage tank to a customer receiver tank to minimize cost and maximize reusability. The Reduced Gravity Cryogenic Transfer project is currently developing advanced cryogenic fluid management technology and developing and validating new numerical models for three phases of transfer: line chilldown, tank chilldown, and tank fill. Additionally, multiple liquid nitrogen (LN 2 ) parabolic flight transfer rigs are being designed by universities and NASA to investigate the gravitational sensitivities that exist in these three technologies. In order to maximize the collection of low-g data during flights, it is required to extract as much (LN 2 as possible from the supply tank, despite variable gravity levels. The purpose of this paper is to present computational fluid dynamics (CFD) volume of fluid simulations of (LN 2 behavior in the supply tank onboard parabolic flights to validate the optimal design of a bi-directional propellant management device (PMD) using the commercial software FLOW-3D. A parametric study is conducted on the effects of gravity level, fill level, pore size, open area, thickness, and type of baffle on PMD performance. Based on results, the PMD as designed exceeds the targeted expulsion efficiency.

Jason Hartwig

Feasibility Study of a Carbon Dioxide Breathing, Solid-Fueled Ramjet for Martian Descent and Landing of Human Class Payloads

This study analyzes the cross-range capabilities of solid-fueled ramjets in a Martian atmosphere for applications in entry, descent, and landing. Trajectories and engine operability are characterized using Mach and dynamic pressure operational points. It is predicted that use of atmosphere-breathing propulsion will enable access to additional surface latitudes without the need for orbital plane changes. Development of an integrated design environment facilitates preliminary ramjet design and analysis, and enables sensitivity studies to identify high impact areas of technology development. In addition, additive manufacturing supports prototyping, rapid ground testing, and allows for utilization of complex geometries.

Shi Broadwell

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for atomistic materials modeling

This release contains data and parameters of HydraGNN-based graph foundation models trained as a result of the work published in the pre-print "Exascale Multi-Task Graph Foundation Models for Imbalanced, Multi-Fidelity Atomistic Data" by M. Lupo Pasini et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15380). We jointly train on 16 open first-principles datasets (544+ million structures covering 85+ elements) using a multi-task architecture with per-dataset heads and a scalable ADIOS2/DDStore data pipeline. On Frontier, we execute six large-scale DeepHyper hyperparameter optimization campaigns in FP64 and promote the top-performing message-passing models to sustained 2,048-node training, yielding a PaiNN-based lead model. The version of HydraGNN used to generate the outputs provided in this release is HydraGNN v5.0 (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0) The list of datasets used for the training of the graph foundation model is the following: 1) Alexandria [1] 2) ANI1x [2] 3) MPTrj [3] 4) Open Catalyst 2020 (OC20) [4] 5) Open Catalyst 2022 (OC22) [5] 6) Open Catalyst 2025 (OC25) [6] 7) Open Direct ir Capture 2023 (ODAC23) [7] 8) Open Materials 2024 (OMat24) [8] 9) Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) [9] 10) OMol25-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with zero total charge) 11) OMol25-non-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with non-zero total charge) 12) Open Polymers 2026 (OPoly2026) [10] 13) Nabla2DFT [11] 14) QCML [12] 15) QM7X [reference 13] 16) transition1x [14] Dataset references: [1] J. Schmidt et al., “A dataset of 175k stable and metastable materials calculated with the PBEsol and SCAN functionals,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 64, 2022. [2] J. S. Smith et al., “The ANI-1ccx and ANI-1x data sets, coupled-cluster and density functional theory properties for molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 7, p. 134, 2020. [Online]. Available: https: //www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0473-z [3] A. Jain et al., “Commentary: The Materials Project: A materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation,” APL Materials, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 011002, 07 2013. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4812323 [4] L. Chanussot et al., “Open catalyst 2020 (oc20) dataset and community challenges,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 11, no. 10, pp. 6059–6072, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.0c04525 [5] K. Tran et al., “Open catalyst 2022 (oc22) dataset and challenges for oxidation electrocatalysts,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 3066–3084, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.2c05426 [6] S. J. Sahoo et al., “The open catalyst 2025 (oc25) dataset and models for solid-liquid interfaces,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.17862, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17862 [7] A. Sriram et al., “The open DAC 2023 dataset and challenges for sorbent discovery in direct air capture,” ACS Central Science, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 923–941, 2024. [8] L. Barroso-Luque et al., “Open materials 2024 (omat24) inorganic materials dataset and models,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12771 [9] D. S. Levine et al., “The open molecules 2025 (OMol25) dataset, evaluations, and models,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08762 [10] D. S. Levine et al., The open polymers 2026 (OPoly26) dataset and evaluations,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.23117, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23117 [11] K. Khrabrov et al., “Nabla2dft: A universal quantum chemistry dataset of drug-like molecules and a benchmark for neural network potentials,” in NeurIPS 2024 Datasets and Benchmarks Track, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://openreview.net/forum?id=ElUrNM9U8c [12] S. Ganscha et al., “The QCML dataset, quantum chemistry reference data from 33.5M DFT and 14.7B semi-empirical calculations,” Scientific Data, vol. 12, p. 406, 2025. [13] J. Hoja et al., “QM7-X, a comprehensive dataset of quantum-mechanical properties spanning the chemical space of small organic molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 8, p. 43, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00812-2 [14] M. Schreiner et al., “Transition1x - a dataset for building generalizable reactive machine learning potentials,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 779, 2022. The folder "datasets_ADIOS2_format" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "datasets_ADIOS2_format" directory contains 2 sub-directories, one for the version "v1" of the datasets and one for the version "v2" of the datasets. The version "v1" of the datasets provides values of the total energy as they are extracted from the original data as it was released by the respective institutions. The version "v2" of the datasets provides values of the energy that have been realigned. The realignment was performed by training a linear regression model that predicts the total energy as a function of the chemical composition of the atomistic structure, and then subtract such prediction from the original value of the total energy. Both folders "v1" and "v2" contain 16 sub-directories, each corresponding to an ADIOS2-formatted dataset The folder "DeepHyper-results" contains the configurational files and model's parameters for all the 186 HPO trials that were successfully completed by the scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) runs on Frontier. The content of the folder "DeepHyper-results" I structured as follows: 1) task-list.txt: list of mpnn name, jobid, and deephyper task id 2) gfm_${MPNN}_${JOBID}_0.${TASKID}: run directory with checkpoint files 3) gfm_${MPNN}: deephyper summary directory (*.csv) for each specific MPNN type 4) deephyper-experiment-${JOBID}: output and error logs for each job The file "deephyper-sorted.csv" contains the details of each HydraGNN model built and tested by HPO, obtained by merging the (*.csv) filed from each HPO run executed. Out of all the HPO trials, we selected 10 to continue the training of the respective HydraGNN models. Due to limited computational budget available in the LRN070 allocation we could not complete the training till convergence for all these 10 selected models. The folder "models" contains multiple sub-folders, one per each HydraGNN model trained. Each model sub-folder contains the parameters of each HydraGNN model, with multiple checkpoint-restarts. The list of sub-folders are as follows: 1) multidataset_hpo-BEST1-fp64 2) multidataset_hpo-BEST2-fp64 3) multidataset_hpo-BEST3-fp64 4) multidataset_hpo-BEST4-fp64 5) multidataset_hpo-BEST5-fp64 6) multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64 7) multidataset_hpo-BEST7-fp64 8) multidataset_hpo-BEST8-fp64 9) multidataset_hpo-BEST9-fp64 10) multidataset_hpo-BEST10-fp64 Within each one of these folders, additional auxiliary log files are provided with descriptions about how the training proceeded. The lead PaiNN-model is contained inside "multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64". The file "mlp_branch_weights" contains the parameters of the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) used to reconcile the predictions of the 16 output decoding heads of the HydragNN architectures. The MLP takes in input the chemical composition of the atomistic structure and predicts averaging weights to linearly mix the predictions of each output decoding head toward consolidating them into a single one. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 1.1 billion atomistic structures randomly generated. Each structures is associated with energy and forces predicted with the lead-PaiNN model combined with the MLP model for reconciliation of the multi-branch predictions generated by the 16 output decoding heads. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 9,300 (*.tar.gz) subdirectories, one per Frontier compute node used to execute the inference at exascale. Once uncompressed, each (*.tar.gz) subdirectory contains an ADIOS2 (*.bp) file container, where each atomistic structure is stored as a PyTorch-Geometric Data object. The file "export_dataset_environment_variables.sh" contains the environment variables that need to be set before running the HydraGNN code to reproduce the results provided in this dataset release. The code that can be used to load the ADIOS2 files, load HydraGNN models, and run inference is available at: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Four Years of Type Ia Supernovae Observed by TESS: Early-time Light-curve Shapes and Constraints on Companion Interaction Models

Abstract We present 307 type Ia supernova (SN) light curves from the first 4 yr of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission. We use this sample to characterize the shapes of the early-time light curves, measure the rise times from first light to peak, and search for companion star interactions. Using simulations, we show that light curves must have noise <10% of the peak flux to avoid biases in the early-time light-curve shape, restricting our quantitative analysis to 74 light curves. We find that the mean power-law index t β 1 of the early-time light curves isβ 1 = 1.93 ± 0.57, and the mean rise time to peak is 15.7 ± 3.5 days. The underlying population distribution forβ 1 may instead consist of a Gaussian component with mean 2.29, width 0.34, and a long tail extending to values less than 1.0. We find that the data can rarely distinguish between models with and without companion interaction models. Nevertheless, we find three high-quality light curves that tentatively prefer the addition of a companion interaction model, but the statistical evidence for the companion interactions is not robust. We also find two SNe that disfavor the addition of a companion interaction model to a curved power-law model. Taking the 74 SNe together, we calculate 3σupper limits on the presence of companion signatures to control for orientation effects that can hide companions in individual light curves. Our results rule out common progenitor systems with companions having Roche lobe radii >31R ⊙ (separations >5.7 × 10 12 cm, 99.9% confidence level) and disfavor companions having Roche lobe radii >10R ⊙ (separations >1.9 × 10 12 cm, 95% confidence level). Lastly, we discuss the implications of our results for the intrinsic fraction of single degenerate progenitor systems.

Astronomy & Astrophysics