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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contaminant Source Identification from Finite Sensor Data: Perron–Frobenius Operator and Bayesian Inference

Sensors in the built environment ensure safety and comfort by tracking contaminants in the occupied space. In the event of contaminant release, it is important to use the limited sensor data to rapidly and accurately identify the release location of the contaminant. Identification of the release location will enable subsequent remediation as well as evacuation decision-making. In previous work, we used an operator theoretic approach—based on the Perron–Frobenius (PF) operator—to estimate the contaminant concentration distribution in the domain given a finite amount of streaming sensor data. In the current work, the approach is extended to identify the most probable contaminant release location. The release location identification is framed as a Bayesian inference problem. The Bayesian inference approach requires considering multiple release location scenarios, which is done efficiently using the discrete PF operator. The discrete PF operator provides a fast, effective and accurate model for contaminant transport modeling. The utility of our PF-based Bayesian inference methodology is illustrated using single-point release scenarios in both two and three-dimensional cases. The method provides a fast, accurate, and efficient framework for real-time identification of contaminant source location.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytical Modeling of Exoplanet Transit Spectroscopy with Dimensional Analysis and Symbolic Regression

Abstract The physical characteristics and atmospheric chemical composition of newly discovered exoplanets are often inferred from their transit spectra, which are obtained from complex numerical models of radiative transfer. Alternatively, simple analytical expressions provide insightful physical intuition into the relevant atmospheric processes. The deep-learning revolution has opened the door for deriving such analytical results directly with a computer algorithm fitting to the data. As a proof of concept, we successfully demonstrate the use of symbolic regression on synthetic data for the transit radii of generic hot-Jupiter exoplanets to derive a corresponding analytical formula. As a preprocessing step, we use dimensional analysis to identify the relevant dimensionless combinations of variables and reduce the number of independent inputs, which improves the performance of the symbolic regression. The dimensional analysis also allowed us to mathematically derive and properly parameterize the most general family of degeneracies among the input atmospheric parameters that affect the characterization of an exoplanet atmosphere through transit spectroscopy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Estimation of the Koopman Operator with Kolmogorov–Smirnov Indicator Functions

It has become common to perform kinetic analysis using approximate Koopman operators that transform high-dimensional timeseries of observables into ranked dynamical modes. The key to the practical success of the approach is the identification of a set of observables that form a good basis on which to expand the slow relaxation modes. Good observables are, however, difficult to identify a priori and suboptimal choices can lead to significant underestimations of characteristic time scales. Leveraging the representation of slow dynamics in terms of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), we propose a simple and computationally efficient clustering procedure to infer surrogate observables that form a good basis for slow modes. Here, we apply the approach to an analytically solvable model system as well as on three protein systems of different complexities. We consistently demonstrate that the inferred indicator functions can significantly improve the estimation of the leading eigenvalues of Koopman operators and correctly identify key states and transition time scales of stochastic systems, even when good observables are not known a priori.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Conditional deep surrogate models for stochastic, high-dimensional, and multi-fidelity systems

Here, we present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogate models on paired input–output observations that may be stochastic in nature, originate from different information sources of variable fidelity, or be corrupted by complex noise processes. The resulting surrogates can accommodate high-dimensional inputs and outputs and are able to return predictions with quantified uncertainty. Furthermore, the effectiveness our approach is demonstrated through a series of canonical studies, including the regression of noisy data, multi-fidelity modeling of stochastic processes, and uncertainty propagation in high-dimensional dynamical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian characterization and forward propagation of the uncertainty in thermodynamic models for redox active materials

Demonstrating the thermodynamic efficiency of hydrogen conversion processes using various materials is a critical step in developing new technologies for storing concentrated solar energy, and is largely accomplished by using a thermodynamic model derived from experimental data. A main goal of this project is to calculate the uncertainty of the thermodynamic efficiency by calculating the uncertainty of the components that feed into the efficiency. Many different models and data sets were used to test the workflow. First, the models were fit to the data using a Bayesian Inference and a method called Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which found the maximum a priori parameters, and a posterior probability distribution of the parameters. Next, the different models were compared to each other using model evidence values. It was found that for cleaner data sets, overfitting had not yet been reached, and the most complicated model was ideal, but on the noisier data sets, the less complex models were favored because the more complicated models resulted in overfitting. Next, forward propagation was used to calculate the enthalpy change and its associated uncertainty. A few variations on the models were tried, such as fitting in a different variable, producing negligible or negative effects on the fits of the models. Thus, the original models were used. A sensitivity analysis was performed, and used to calculate the model error. On the cleaner data sets, there was very minimal experimental noise, and thus, all resulting error was from the model. With consideration of the model error, the models fit the data very well, and the simpler model had a high model error, as expected. All these components will then be used to calculate the thermodynamic efficiency of the different materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recommended conventions for reporting results from direct dark matter searches

Abstract The field of dark matter detection is a highly visible and highly competitive one. In this paper, we propose recommendations for presenting dark matter direct detection results particularly suited for weak-scale dark matter searches, although we believe the spirit of the recommendations can apply more broadly to searches for other dark matter candidates, such as very light dark matter or axions. To translate experimental data into a final published result, direct detection collaborations must make a series of choices in their analysis, ranging from how to model astrophysical parameters to how to make statistical inferences based on observed data. While many collaborations follow a standard set of recommendations in some areas, for example the expected flux of dark matter particles (to a large degree based on a paper from Lewin and Smith in 1995), in other areas, particularly in statistical inference, they have taken different approaches, often from result to result by the same collaboration. We set out a number of recommendations on how to apply the now commonly used Profile Likelihood Ratio method to direct detection data. In addition, updated recommendations for the Standard Halo Model astrophysical parameters and relevant neutrino fluxes are provided. The authors of this note include members of the DAMIC, DarkSide, DARWIN, DEAP, LZ, NEWS-G, PandaX, PICO, SBC, SENSEI, SuperCDMS, and XENON collaborations, and these collaborations provided input to the recommendations laid out here. Wide-spread adoption of these recommendations will make it easier to compare and combine future dark matter results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS) – III. Physical properties and elemental abundances of Lyman-limit systems at z < 1

ABSTRACT We present a systematic investigation of physical conditions and elemental abundances in four optically thick Lyman-limit systems (LLSs) at z = 0.36–0.6 discovered within the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS). Because intervening LLSs at z < 1 suppress far-UV (ultraviolet) light from background QSOs, an unbiased search of these absorbers requires a near-UV-selected QSO sample, as achieved by CUBS. CUBS LLSs exhibit multicomponent kinematic structure and a complex mix of multiphase gas, with associated metal transitions from multiple ionization states such as C ii, C iii, N iii, Mg ii, Si ii, Si iii, O ii, O iii, O vi, and Fe ii absorption that span several hundred km s−1 in line-of-sight velocity. Specifically, higher column density components (log N(H i)/cm−2≳ 16) in all four absorbers comprise dynamically cool gas with $\langle T \rangle =(2\pm 1) \times 10^4\,$K and modest non-thermal broadening of $\langle b_\mathrm{nt} \rangle =5\pm 3\,$km s−1. The high quality of the QSO absorption spectra allows us to infer the physical conditions of the gas, using a detailed ionization modelling that takes into account the resolved component structures of H i and metal transitions. The range of inferred gas densities indicates that these absorbers consist of spatially compact clouds with a median line-of-sight thickness of $160^{+140}_{-50}$ pc. While obtaining robust metallicity constraints for the low density, highly ionized phase remains challenging due to the uncertain $N\mathrm{(H\, {\small I})}$, we demonstrate that the cool-phase gas in LLSs has a median metallicity of $\mathrm{[\alpha /H]_{1/2}}=-0.7^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$, with a 16–84 percentile range of [α/H] = (−1.3, −0.1). Furthermore, the wide range of inferred elemental abundance ratios ([C/α], [N/α], and [Fe/α]) indicate a diversity of chemical enrichment histories. Combining the absorption data with deep galaxy survey data characterizing the galaxy environment of these absorbers, we discuss the physical connection between star-forming regions in galaxies and diffuse gas associated with optically thick absorption systems in the z < 1 circumgalactic medium.

Zahedy, Fakhri S. (ORCID:0000000178692551)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1 pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Gaia DR2 parallax zero-point: hierarchical modelling of red clump stars

ABSTRACT The systematic offset of Gaia parallaxes has been widely reported with Gaia’s second data release, and it is expected to persist in future Gaia data. In order to use Gaia parallaxes to infer distances to high precision, we develop a hierarchical probabilistic model to determine the Gaia parallax zero-point offset along with the calibration of an empirical model for luminosity of red clump stars by combining astrometric and photometric measurements. Using a cross-matched sample of red clump stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2), we report the parallax zero-point offset in DR2 to be $\varpi _0 = -48 \pm 1\,\mu \text{as}$. We infer the red clump absolute magnitude to be −1.622 ± 0.004 in Ks, 0.435 ± 0.004 in G, −1.019 ± 0.004 in J, and −1.516 ± 0.004 in H. The intrinsic scatter of the red clump is ∼0.09 mag in J, H, and Ks, or ∼ 0.12 mag in G. We tailor our models to accommodate more complex analyses such as investigating the variations of the parallax zero-point with each source’s observed magnitude, observed colour, and sky position. In particular, we find fluctuations of the zero-point across the sky to be of order or less than a few 10s of $\mu \text{as}$.

Chan, Victor C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The physiological basis for estimating photosynthesis from Chl>em>a fluorescence

We report solar-induced Chl fluorescence (SIF) offers the potential to curb large uncertainties in the estimation of photosynthesis across biomes and climates, and at different spatiotemporal scales. However, it remains unclear how SIF should be used to mechanistically estimate photosynthesis. In this study, we built a quantitative framework for the estimation of photosynthesis, based on a mechanistic light reaction model with the Chla fluorescence of Photosystem II (SIFPSII) as an input (MLR-SIF). Utilizing 29 C 3 and C 4 plant species that are representative of major plant biomes across the globe, we confirmed the validity of this framework at the leaf level. The MLR-SIF model is capable of accurately reproducing photosynthesis for all C 3 and C 4 species under diverse light, temperature, and CO 2 conditions. We further tested the robustness of the MLR-SIF model using Monte Carlo simulations, and found that photosynthesis estimates were much less sensitive to parameter uncertainties relative to the conventional Farquhar, von Caemmerer, Berry (FvCB) model because of the additional independent information contained in SIF PSII . Once inferred from direct observables of SIF, SIF PSII provides ‘parameter savings’ to the MLR-SIF model, compared to the mechanistically equivalent FvCB model, and thus avoids the uncertainties arising as a result of imperfect model parameterization. Our findings set the stage for future efforts to employ SIF mechanistically to improve photosynthesis estimates across a variety of scales, functional groups, and environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging New Observational Capabilities and Process-Level Simulation: Insights into Aerosol Roles in the Earth System

The spatial distribution of ambient aerosol particles significantly impacts aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in global anthropogenic radiative forcing estimations. However, the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere have not been adequately sampled in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, hindering a comprehensive characterization of various atmospheric processes and impeding our understanding of the Earth system. To address this research data gap, we have leveraged the development of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and advanced measurement techniques to obtain mesoscale spatial data on aerosol microphysical and optical properties around the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Our study also benefits from state-of-the-art laboratory facilities that include three-dimensional molecular imaging techniques enabled by secondary ion mass spectrometry and nanogram-level chemical composition analysis via micronebulization aerosol mass spectrometry. Through our study, we have developed a framework for observation–modeling integration, enabling an examination of how various assumptions about the organic–inorganic components mixing state, inferred from chemical analysis, affect clouds and radiation in observation-constrained model simulations. By integrating observational constraints (derived from offline chemical analysis of the aerosol surface using collected samples) with in situ UAS observations, we have identified a prominent role of organic-enriched nanometer layers located at the surface of aerosol particles in determining profiles of aerosol optical and hygroscopic properties over the SGP observatory. Furthermore, we have improved the agreement between predicted clouds and ground-based cloud lidar measurements. This UAS–model–laboratory integration exemplifies how these new advanced capabilities can significantly enhance our understanding of aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weak lensing mass-richness relation of redMaPPer clusters in LSST DESC DC2 simulations

Cluster scaling relations are key ingredients in cluster abundance-based cosmological studies. In optical cluster cosmology, where clusters are detected through their richness, cluster-weak gravitational lensing has proven to be a powerful tool to constrain the cluster mass-richness relation. This work is conducted as part of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which aims to analyze the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, starting in 2026. Cluster properties inferred from weak lensing, such as mass, suffer from several sources of bias. In this paper, we aim to test the impact of modeling choices and observational systematics in cluster lensing on the inference of the mass-richness relation. We constrained the mass-richness relation of 3600 clusters detected by the redMaPPer algorithm in the cosmoDC2 extragalactic mock catalog of the LSST DESC DC2 simulation, covering 440 deg 2 , using number count measurements and either stacked weak lensing profiles or mean cluster masses in several intervals of richness (20 ≤ λ ≤ 200) and redshift (0.2 ≤ z ≤ 1). We provide the first constraints on the redMaPPer cluster mass-richness relation detected in cosmoDC2. We find that for an LSST-like source galaxy density, our constraints are robust to changes in the concentration-mass relation, as well as the dark matter density profile modeling choices, when source redshifts and shapes are perfectly known. We find that photometric redshift uncertainties can introduce bias at the 1σ level, which could be mitigated by an overall correction factor fitted jointly with the scaling parameters. We find that including positive shear-richness covariance in the fit shifts the results by up to 0.5σ. Our constraints also offer a fair comparison to a fiducial mass-richness relation, obtained from matching cosmoDC2 halo masses to redMaPPer-detected cluster richness results.

galaxy clusters↗
DOE OSTI2024

Masses of Sunyaev-Zel’dovich galaxy clusters detected by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Stacked lensing measurements with Subaru HSC year 3 data

We present a stacked lensing analysis of 96 galaxy clusters selected by the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect in maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We select foreground galaxy clusters with a 5 σ -level SZ threshold in CMB observations from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, while we define background source galaxies for the lensing analysis with secure photometric redshift cuts in Year 3 data of the Subaru Hyper Suprime Cam survey. We detect the stacked lensing signal in the range of 0.1 < R [ h - 1 Mpc ] < 100 in each of three cluster redshift bins, 0.092 < z ≤ 0.445 , 0.445 < z ≤ 0.695 , and 0.695 < z ≤ 1.180 , with 32 galaxy clusters in each bin. The cumulative signal-to-noise ratios of the lensing signal are 14.6, 12.0, and 6.6, respectively. Using a halo-based forward model, we then constrain statistical relationships between the mass inferred from the SZ observation (i.e. SZ mass) and the total mass derived from our stacked lensing measurements. At the average SZ mass in the cluster sample ( 2.1 - 2.4 × 10 14 h - 1 M ⊙ ), our likelihood analysis shows that the average total mass differs from the SZ counterpart by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 , 1.6 ± 0.2 , and 1.6 ± 0.3 (68%) in the aforementioned redshift ranges, respectively. Our limits are consistent with previous lensing measurements, and we find that the cluster modeling choices can introduce a 1 σ -level difference in our parameter inferences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Phylodynamic Inference across Epidemic Scales

Within-host genetic diversity and large transmission bottlenecks confound phylodynamic inference of epidemiological dynamics. Conventional phylodynamic approaches assume that nodes in a time-scaled pathogen phylogeny correspond closely to the time of transmission between hosts that are ancestral to the sample. However, when hosts harbor diverse pathogen populations, node times can substantially pre-date infection times. Imperfect bottlenecks can cause lineages sampled in different individuals to coalesce in unexpected patterns. To address realistic violations of standard phylodynamic assumptions we developed a new inference approach based on a multi-scale coalescent model, accounting for nonlinear epidemiological dynamics, heterogeneous sampling through time, non-negligible genetic diversity of pathogens within hosts, and imperfect transmission bottlenecks. We apply this method to HIV-1 and Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak sequence data, illustrating how and when conventional phylodynamic inference may give misleading results. Within-host diversity of HIV-1 causes substantial upwards bias in the number of infected hosts using conventional coalescent models, but estimates using the multi-scale model have greater consistency with reported number of diagnoses through time. In contrast, we find that within-host diversity of EBOV has little influence on estimated numbers of infected hosts or reproduction numbers, and estimates are highly consistent with the reported number of diagnoses through time. The multi-scale coalescent also enables estimation of within-host effective population size using single sequences from a random sample of patients. We find within-host population genetic diversity of HIV-1 p17 to be 2Nμ=0.012 (95% CI 0.0066–0.023), which is lower than estimates based on HIV envelope serial sequencing of individual patients.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Nonlinear System Identification

Neural ordinary differential equations (NODE) have been recently proposed as a promising approach for nonlinear system identification tasks. In this work, we systematically compare their predictive performance with current state-of-the-art nonlinear and classical linear methods. In particular, we present a quantitative study comparing NODE's performance against neural state-space models and classical linear system identification methods and evaluate their inference speed and prediction performance on open-loop errors across eight different dynamical systems. The experiments show that NODEs can consistently improve the prediction accuracy by order of magnitude compared to benchmark methods. Besides improved accuracy, we also observed that NODEs are less sensitive to hyperparameters compared to neural state-space models by paying the cost of increased computation at the inference time.

machine leaning, system identification, physics in↗