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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Mu*STAR ADSR Fuel Conversion Facility Evaluation and Cost Analysis

The purpose of the reported effort is the development of a conceptual process for conversion of used nuclear fuel (UNF) from light water reactors (LWRs) to a fluoride salt form to facilitate its use for power generation in a Mu*STAR Accelerator-driven Subcritical Reactor (ADSR). This document evaluates potential processes for converting UNF into a fluoride salt, evaluates the costs/benefits of using enriched lithium in the carrier salt, and analyzes comparable costs of similar facilities to make a rough order of magnitude estimate for the cost to design, construct, and commission a Mu*STAR ADSR fuel conversion facility. This document also makes a high-level comparison of the Mu*STAR ADSR fuel cycle with other important fuel cycles. The results of the cost analysis show that the Mu*STAR ADSR fuel conversion facility will cost more than $100M, possibly up to around $1B, to design and construct. The cost will depend on the size of the hot cell required, which will depend on the processing options chosen for converting the UNF to a molten salt. Operations and maintenance of the facility will be on the order of $10M per year. The design, fabrication, and installation of the remote process equipment to support the fuel conversion will be an additional cost of more than $50M. Cost surveys of Department of Energy hot cell designs and previous Department of Energy hot cell construction suggest that the cost variance may be large, and the risk of escalating costs may be high in the regulation-mandated atmosphere of nuclear facility design and construction. The molten salt for the Mu*STAR ADSR contains all of the nonvolatile isotopes in the UNF, and there is never a separation of the plutonium from the fission products. This makes this conversion process much more proliferation resistant than the reprocessing options used for other closed fuel cycles. When normalized to the amount of electricity produced, the Mu*STAR ADSR fuel cycle’s expected cost might be less than any reprocessing fuel cycle and possibly less than the once-through cycle now used. Simulations show that once the conversion to fluoride is made, that up to seven times as much energy can be extracted from the UNF than was produced by the LWR while making it [Bowman, 2010]. Using once-only, on-site conversion to fluoride means no mining, no enrichment, no manufacturing of fuel rods, and no transportation costs. Typically, the UNF was produced over a 40-year period in an LWR; it can potentially be used for 280 years in Mu*STAR, producing the same power as the LWR did, ultimately requiring disposal of approximately the same volume of material as the LWR generated. Mu*STAR burns most of the higher actinides, which could reduce both the cost of disposal and significantly reduce the longevity of its radiotoxicity. Mu*STAR ADSR’s ability to demonstrate unique and valuable peripheral benefits are additional arguments for this technology, including (1) turning UNF into a valuable commodity (thus, its disposal will not be such an immediate problem, so continued operation of existing LWRs will be more acceptable); (2) burning fissile or fertile fuel including excess weapons-grade plutonium in subcritical mode; and (3) providing high-temperature process heat to convert natural gas to synthetic diesel fuel, water to hydrogen, or for other process-heat applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Investigation and Feasibility Assessment of TOPAZ-2 Derivations for Space Power Applications

The ability to provide continuous power at significant levels is of utmost importance for many space missions, from simple satellite operations to manned Mars missions. One of the main problems faced in delivering solar or chemical space power in the tens of kW range, is the increasingly massive nature of the power source and the costs associated with its launch, operation and maintenance. A national program had been initiated to study the feasibility of using certain advanced technologies in developing an efficient lightweight space power source. The starting point for these studies has been the Russian TOPAZ-2 space reactor system, with the ultimate goal to aid in the development of a TOPAZ-2 derivative which will be ready for flight by the year 2000. The main objective of this project has been to perform feasibility assessment and trade studies which would allow the development of an advanced space nuclear power system based on the in-core thermionic fuel element technology currently used in the Russian TOPAZ-2 reactor. Two of the important considerations in developing the concept are: (1) compliance of the current TOPAZ-2 and of any advanced designs with U.S. nuclear safety expectations, and (2) compliance of the design with the seven years lifetime requirement. The project was composed of two major phases. The initial phase of the project has concentrated on understanding the TOPAZ-2 thermionic reactor in sufficient detail to allow several follow-on tasks. The primary interest during this first phase has been given on identifying the potential of the TOPAZ-2 design for further improvements. The second phase of the project has focused on the feasibility of a TOPAZ-2 system capable of delivering 30-50 kWe. Towards the elimination of single-point failures in the load voltage regulation system an active voltage regulator has been designed to be used in conjunction with the available shunt load voltage regulator. The possible use of a dual-loop, model-based adaptive control system for load-following in the TOPAZ-2 has also been investigated. The objective of this fault-tolerant, autonomous control system is to deliver the demanded electric power at the desired voltage level, by appropriately manipulating the neutron power through the control drums. As a result, sufficient thermal power is produced to meet the required demand in the presence of dynamically changing system operating conditions and potential sensor failures. The designed controller is proposed for use in combination with the currently available shunt regulators, or as a back-up controller when other means of power system control, including some of the sensors, fail.

Parlos, Alexander G.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Changes in the Economic Value of Variable Generation at High Penetration Levels: A Pilot Case Study of California

We estimate the long-run economic value of variable renewable generation with increasing penetration using a unique investment and dispatch model that captures long-run investment decisions while also incorporating detailed operational constraints and hourly time resolution over a full year. High time resolution and the incorporation of operational constraints are important for estimating the economic value of variable generation, as is the use of a modeling framework that accommodates new investment decisions. The model is herein applied with a case study that is loosely based on California in 2030. Increasing amounts of wind, photovoltaics (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) with and without thermal energy storage (TES) are added one at a time. The marginal economic value of these renewable energy sources is estimated and then decomposed into capacity value, energy value, day-ahead forecast error cost, and ancillary services. The marginal economic value, as defined here, is primarily based on the combination of avoided capital investment cost and avoided variable fuel and operations and maintenance costs from other power plants in the power system. Though the model only captures a subset of the benefits and costs of renewable energy, it nonetheless provides unique insights into how the value of that subset changes with technology and penetration level. Specifically, in this case study implementation of the model, the marginal economic value of all three solar options is found to exceed the value of a flat-block of power (as well as wind energy) by \$20--30/MWh at low penetration levels, largely due to the high capacity value of solar at low penetration. Because the value of CSP per unit of energy is found to be high with or without thermal energy storage at low penetration, we find little apparent incremental value to thermal storage at low solar penetration in the present case study analysis. The marginal economic value of PV and CSP without thermal storage is found to drop considerably (by more than \$70/MWh) as the penetration of solar increases toward 30\percent on an energy basis. This is due primarily to a steep drop in capacity value followed by a decrease in energy value. In contrast, the value of CSP with thermal storage drops much less dramatically as penetration increases. As a result, at solar penetration levels above 10\percent, CSP with thermal storage is found to be considerably more valuable relative to PV and CSP without thermal storage. The marginal economic value of wind is found to be largely driven by energy value, and is lower than solar at low penetration. The marginal economic value of wind drops at a relatively slower rate with penetration, however. As a result, at high penetration, the value of wind can exceed the value of PV and CSP without thermal storage. Though some of these findings may be somewhat unique to the specific case study presented here, the results: (1) highlight the importance of an analysis framework that addresses long-term investment decisions as well as short-term dispatch and operational constraints, (2) can help inform long-term decisions about renewable energy procurement and supporting infrastructure, and (3) point to areas where further research is warranted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data Integration Aggregated Model and Ontology for Nuclear Deployment (DIAMOND): Preliminary Model and Ontology

The data of a nuclear utility or plant are stored in various isolated forms in different systems. These data have different structures and tools and are, therefore, used independently. The integration of data sources is often performed manually and on an as-needed basis to achieve a targeted cost saving. A holistic approach to the integration of the data would enable creating a data warehouse for a single nuclear power plant (NPP) or multiple plants. A data warehouse results in direct and indirect cost saving because it automates the manual search for data, enables sharing and comparison of data from various tools of a single or multiple plants, enable digital transformation of data, increase frequencies of needed data that are sparse in nature (such as failures signatures), reduces the need for training on various tools for plant staff, enables a holistic staff perception of plant activities, reveals cost-saving opportunities, and improves the visual perception of all parts a plant necessary for operations and maintenance. One of the main challenges to deploy a data warehouse is associated with the integration of data sources into a consistent data model using a standard ontology that is developed by and for the nuclear power industry. This model is non-existent and is a necessity to enable the nuclear data warehouse role. A data model contains objects that make up a given domain along with their attributes and relationships. It provides domain standardization and maintainability, setting forth the objects, attributes, and relationships within that domain and acting as the guide by which the various applications within that domain will structure their data and interchange. An ontology is defined as “a set of concepts and categories in a subject area or domain that shows their properties and the relations between them”. Ontologies consist of a taxonomy or directed rooted tree. A survey of the models and ontologies available to support a data integration aggregated model and ontology for nuclear deployment (DIAMOND) was performed and different standards that address specific aspects of the needed model and ontology were leveraged and integrated in this effort. In specific, the Basic Formal Ontology (BFO) and Lifecycle Modeling Language (LML) were leveraged for the base ontology. The ISO 4224 and 15926 were leveraged in the development of the overlapping nuclear and fossil data aspects. The electric power research institute (EPRI) power distribution common information model (CIM) was also reviewed and the experience gained was leveraged in the power generation scope of DIAMOND. The initial aim targeted by this effort was to develop the ontology definitions and model structure. This report documents the resulting model and ontology to develop DIAMOND. The report describes the various elements of the model development based on a growing tree development approach, i.e. DIAMOND’s tree structure is established with the core data aspects and is populated with a preliminary level of details. Fifteen sources of data in a nuclear power plant were considered and incorporated into DIAMOND at this stage of development, representing the majority of operations data sources in nuclear power plants. Additional data sources, scope, and a higher level of fidelity will be incorporated into DIAMOND next in collaboration with the nuclear industry and relevant stakeholders.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Launch Vehicle Liftoff Debris: Historical Perspective from Space Shuttle and Application to Artemis I

Human exploration-class launch vehicles are inherently prone to debris due to the extreme environments generated during pre-launch operations, liftoff, and flight. The use of cryogenic propellants often requires thermal protection system (TPS) coatings, typically foam, to maintain the propellant conditions in the tank and prevent an accumulation ice on the external surface of the vehicle. Some ice growth is to be expected at umbilical interfaces, vents, flanges, or brackets where it is difficult to apply TPS. This ice may come loose at any time due to wind on the launch pad, structural vibration and acoustics after rocket ignition, or aerodynamic forces during flight. This phenomena is especially apparent on vehicles with no TPS, such as the Saturn V rockets used in the Apollo Program, see Figure 1. During propellant tanking, the thermal contraction of the underlying substrate may generate cracks in the TPS (Figure 1). Chunks of TPS can release due to the expansion of ingested gas from cryopumping or from aerodynamic forces if the crack creates an offset surface. Most foams will also have a certain amount of “popcorning” where small pieces of foam will pop off during flight because of the differential between the static surface pressure and the pressure of the gas trapped in the foam cell structure. There are a number of other coating or closeout materials that may be shed from the vehicle and become debris. During pre-launch operations and liftoff, the vehicle may also be exposed to debris originating from the launch pad or ground support equipment. This debris is separate from foreign object debris, or FOD, which is not intended to be present and is strictly controlled through operations and maintenance procedures. In this case, debris is generated from hardware and materials that are necessary for launch and are subject to the intense vibration, acoustics, and direct plume impingement of the launch environment. Examples include ice from umbilicals, tape and tie wraps that protect cables, and rust or corrosion from the launch platform. While NASA has historically been aware of debris as a potential issue that could cause a failure resulting in loss of mission, loss of vehicle, or loss of crew, the likelihood and severity of that risk was not always well understood or given sufficient weight in program and flight decisions. After the Space Shuttle Columbia accident (STS-107), the investigation found that foam TPS debris shed from the external tank was the proximate cause of the damage to the orbiter wing. Six previous observations of debris released from the foam ramp that covered the bipod connecting the forward end of the orbiter to the external tank resulted in minor changes or were determined to be accepted flight risks. Two occurrences of bipod ramp foam loss were not identified until the STS-107 investigation. Despite the damage inflicted by these debris strikes, the Shuttle Program Requirements Control Board deemed the vehicle safe to fly. During the Return to Flight effort following the Columbia disaster, NASA Engineering developed a process for the assessment of debris transport, impact, and damage tolerance to support independent assessments of risk by NASA Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). Under this system, each element (vehicle or ground system) defines a catalog of all expected debris based on launch history, component testing, or analysis. Debris transport analysis (DTA) is conducted using the debris catalog characteristics and potential flow transport mechanisms (e.g., vehicle aerodynamics, gravity, wind, plume-driven). The predicted debris impact locations and velocities are provided to the hardware owners, who use available test data and analysis to determine whether each component can withstand the impacts. In cases where the element hardware may be severely damaged or fail, the options are to mitigate the debris source through some change in design or operation, or to work with S&MA to try to characterize the probability of the impact and damage for program risk acceptance. Because of the differences in debris characteristics and transport, the DTA has been divided between the Liftoff and Ascent regimes. The development and application of Liftoff DTA methodology from the Shuttle Program to the current Artemis Program is the subject of this paper. Liftoff DTA covers the time from the start of pre-launch operations at the launch pad, up until the vehicle clears the launch tower and there is no longer any interaction with ground systems. Debris transport during this period is broadly classified as either gravity, wind, and plume-entrained (GWPE) or plume driven (PD). GWPE debris is generally lower speed, travelling in a forward-to-aft direction. PD transport includes flow features from the rocket ignition transient, as well as plume impingement and recirculation that occur as the vehicle lifts off the launch platform. In these cases, the debris typically moves in an aft-to-forward direction at higher speeds. The applicable transport mechanisms must be considered for each piece of debris depending on the material, and release location and time. For example, rust or metallic debris from the tower could fall (GWPE) and impact the vehicle before landing on the launch platform deck where it could be also be transported by plume impingement (PD). However, falling ice (GWPE) from an umbilical is unlikely to survive impact with the vehicle or launch platform and be available for PD transport. Modeling of debris transport is accomplished using a set of DTA tools which simulate debris trajectories subject to a reference frame acceleration (i.e., gravity) and aerodynamic drag. Where the trajectory encounters a solid surface, the debris is allowed to rebound with a specified coefficient of restitution. The drag is calculated by interpolating the fluid state at each point in the debris trajectory from high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the launch vehicle and pad. The CFD data may either be static (steady state or time averaged), typically for GWPE transport, or dynamic (time-accurate) for PD flow features like the ignition transient. Examples of the CFD flow field solutions for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and launch pad are shown in Figure 2. Typical SLS debris trajectory predictions from DTA are illustrated in Figure 3. The final version of this paper will include a more detailed examination of the Liftoff DTA process developed during the Shuttle Program, and how it has been augmented and applied to the SLS rocket under the Artemis Program. Comparisons with debris observations from the Artemis I launch will demonstrate validation of the tools and methodology.

Debris↗
DOE OSTI2022

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fossil Power Plant Cyber Security Life-Cycle Risk Reduction, A Practical Framework for Implementation

Market conditions are forcing fossil electricity generation facility owners and operators to implement advanced digital technologies. These technologies enable efficiencies, operational flexibility, operations and maintenance efficiencies, and adapting to a transitioning workforce. These digital technologies, however, can increase the cybersecurity attack surface. The purpose of this research was to develop a holistic cybersecurity risk reduction framework for fossil generation facilities. The framework begins with assessing how cyber risk changes across facility life cycles, including plant, system, vendor, and business life cycles. The next phase performs consequence analysis to prioritize high consequence events. Focusing on high consequence events allows owners to use a graded, risk-informed approach to prioritize cybersecurity efforts. The final phase identifies the digital asset attack surface in sensors and instrumentation and control equipment. After the vulnerabilities are identified, the owner selects mitigating cybersecurity control measures (or countermeasures) based on the risk analysis from the previous phases. This report describes the current industry cybersecurity best practices in fossil generation that are based on the first principles for cybersecurity engineering. The report is divided into five sections that describe the implementation of the risk reduction framework and present identified research, methodological, and technology gaps that were identified through this course of research and development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Changes in Cleanup Strategies and Long-Term Monitoring Costs for DOE FUSRAP Sites - 17241

The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) is responsible for the post-closure management of remediated DOE sites. LM's objective for Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) includes the long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTSM) of sites that have been remediated by the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). FUSRAP was initiated in 1974 by the US Atomic Energy Commission, a predecessor agency of DOE. FUSRAP was managed by DOE from 1981 to 1997. Through a congressional act, the scope to remediate FUSRAP sites was transferred to USACE in 1997. By 1997, DOE had completed the cleanup of 25 of the 46 sites that were active within the program, and had begun cleanups at 13 additional sites. USACE assumed responsibility for the cleanup of the 21 remaining FUSRAP sites, and 8 additional sites that have been recommended for cleanup. Presently, LM provides long-term stewardship for 30 completed FUSRAP sites while USACE is actively remediating 23 sites. FUSRAP sites are typically privately-owned factories or research facilities. However, there are four DOE owned FUSRAP sites. These sites are Maywood and Middlesex in New Jersey, and Colonie and Niagara Falls in New York. In support of LM's Beneficial Reuse strategic mission, the site in Wayne, New Jersey has been transferred to a municipality and the site in New Brunswick, New Jersey has been sold. Historically, most sites in FUSRAP were remediated to 'unlimited exposure and unrestricted use' cleanup levels consistent with residential use. Some sites were remediated using supplemental limits due to inaccessible areas while remaining sites have been remediated to other-than residential standards based on site-specific long-term land use assumptions. Of the 31 completed FUSRAP sites under LM stewardship, one site requires land-use controls and no site requires groundwater monitoring. Over the next 10 years USACE plans to transfer 11 sites to LM. Several of these sites will have additional long-term monitoring requirements as per their Records of Decisions (RODs). These transitioning sites include the Colonie, New York site, the Maywood and Deepwater, New Jersey, sites and the St. Louis, Missouri site. The additional stewardship requirements will include groundwater monitoring, enforcement of institutional and engineered controls, and five-year reviews. In addition to these sites, more than 100 vicinity properties will also be transferred to LM for stewardship. Given the increase in long-term stewardship activities for these sites and their associated vicinity properties, initiatives are under way to incorporate the additional LTSM requirements into the program's out-year planning. LM will be evaluating several methods to customize LTSM cost and liability estimates for all of the completed FUSRAP sites, planning to address the sites not yet transferred and those that are in LM's custody. Where necessary, LM will use remedial process optimization techniques and evaluate monitored natural attenuation protocols to reduced long-term monitoring costs. Methods for identifying costs include the cost estimates provided in RODs, cost estimates refined during remediation, operation and maintenance costs provided by USACE prior to transition, and presumptive remedies using USACE and Environmental Management / LM historic costs at similar sites. On the basis of this evaluation, a strategy for estimating site-specific LTSM costs will be selected. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Coastal Ohio Wind Project for Reduced Barriers to Deployment of Offshore Wind Energy

The Coastal Ohio Wind Project was created to establish the viability of wind turbines on the coastal and offshore regions of Northern Ohio. The project’s main goal was to improve operational unit strategies used for environmental impact assessment of offshore turbines on lake wildlife by optimizing and fusing data from the multi-instrument surveillance system and providing an engineering analysis of potential design/operational alternatives for offshore wind turbines. The project also developed a general economic model for offshore WTG deployment to quantify potential revenue losses due to wind turbine shutdown related to ice and avian issues. In a previous phase of this project (Award Number: DE-FG36-06GO86096), we developed a surveillance system that was used to collect different parameters such as passage rates, flight paths, flight directions, and flight altitudes of nocturnal migrating species, movements of birds and bats, and bird calls for assessing patterns and peak passage rates during migration. To derive such parameters we used thermal IR imaging cameras, acoustic recorders, and marine radar Furuno (XANK250), which was coupled with a XIR3000B digitizing card from Russell Technologies and open source radR processing software. The integration yielded a development of different computational techniques and methods, which we further developed and optimized as a combined surveillance system. To accomplish this task we implemented marine radar calibration, optimization of processing parameters, and fusion of the multi-sensor data in order to make inferences about the potential avian targets. The main goal of the data fusion from the multi-sensor environment was aimed at reduction of uncertainties while providing acceptable confidence levels with detailed information about the migration patterns. Another component comprised of an assessment of wind resources in a near lake environment and an investigation of the effectiveness of ice coating materials to mitigate adverse effects of ice formation on wind turbine structures. Firstly, a Zephir LiDAR system was acquired and installed at Woodlands School in Huron, Ohio, which is located near Lake Erie. Wind resource data were obtained at ten measurement heights, 200m, 150m, 100m, 80m, 60m, 40m, 38m, 30m, 20m, and 10m. The Woodlands School’s wind turbine anemometer also measured the wind speed at the hub height. These data were collected for approximately one year. The hub anemometer data correlated well with the LiDAR wind speed measurements at the same height. The data also showed that on several days different power levels were recorded by the turbine at the same wind speed as indicated by the hub anemometer. The corresponding LiDAR data showed that this difference can be attributed to variability in the wind over the turbine rotor swept area, which the hub anemometer could not detect. The observation suggests that single point hub wind velocity measurements are inadequate to accurately estimate the power generated by a turbine at all times since the hub wind speed is not a good indicator of the wind speed over the turbine rotor swept area when winds are changing rapidly. To assess the effectiveness of ice coatings to mitigate the impact of ice on turbine structures, a closed-loop icing research tunnel (IRT) was designed and constructed. By controlling the temperature, air speed, water content and liquid droplet size, the tunnel enabled consistent and repeatable ice accretion under a variety of conditions with temperatures between approximately 0°C and -20°C and wind speeds up to 40 miles per hour in the tunnel’s test section. The tunnel’s cooling unit maintained the tunnel temperature within ±0.2°C. The coatings evaluated in the study were Boyd Coatings Research Company’s CRC6040R3, MicroPhase Coatings Inc.’s PhaseBreak TP, ESL and Flex coatings. Similar overall performance was observed in all coatings tested in that water droplets form on the test articles beginning at the stagnation region and spreading in the downstream direction in time. When comparing ice accumulation characteristics for the four coatings tested, for ice thickness during accumulation the CRC6040R3 had the least, followed by the ESL, Flex, and TP. However, when comparing the coatings’ ability to reduce ice adhesion, the Flex showed the highest adhesion reduction, followed by the ESL, TP and CRC 6040R3 coatings. The ice accumulated on the Flex coated surface shed under gravity when rotated 90 degrees following the tests while the other coatings required application of varying degrees of force to remove the ice. In conclusion, the ice coatings tested were not sufficient in preventing ice accumulation on all surfaces. However, Flex coating shows promise in mitigating ice on the rotor blades under the gravitational and centrifugal forces. Only the effect of gravity in shedding the ice was considered in this study. Further research will be needed to evaluate this coating on rotating blades in the icing tunnel to characterize its effectiveness. Lastly, the development of economic feasibility models used existing approaches adapted for offshore deployment in marine settings to one more suitable for Lake Erie deployment. Two different wind turbine models were tested and dynamic return on investment (ROI) model scenarios were generated. For the purpose of estimating power generation three bladed wind turbines of 3 MW capacity were selected including Model1- Leitwind LTW101-3.000-kW and Model2-Vostro V90-3.0 MW. The analysis were based on the revenue aspect of decision making of deploying wind turbines in the Ohio coastal region. The installation cost, maintenance and operational aspects were disregarded due to unavailability of data. The adjusted varying price (residential and industrial sector) and projected future price of electricity in different years suggested that the Leitwind model could generate $\$ $32.4 million of revenue in 25 years if the supply electricity is in the residential sector, while it would be $\$ $14.7million if the supply is in the industrial sector. For the Vostro model these figures are $\$ $28.6 million for residential sector and $\$ $12.9 million for industrial sector for 25 years.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Economic risk analysis for the capture of a distributed energy resource using modular chemical process intensification

Recent advances in the chemical process industry have allowed for the intensification of reactors and unit operations, by enhancing heat and mass transfer or combining multiple unit operations. Process intensification can enable chemical plants to be constructed in a more compact, modular fashion, offering improvements over conventional on-site approaches to capital construction, operations and maintenance. This modular chemical process intensification (MCPI) offers several benefits over conventional stick-built (CSB) plant construction in terms of reduced footprint, reduced energy consumption, lower cost, less waste and improved safety and quality control. However, acceptance of MCPI over CSB construction practices within the chemical industry can be impeded by the uncertain risks associated with investing in new technology. Furthermore, the work here documents a case study during the development of a modular chemical plant for capturing distributed energy resources within chemical production. This MCPI approach to plant construction is contrasted with a CSB approach for producing the same chemical product. Data collection tools were developed, based on a literature review, and data was collected from the technology developer to understand the process technology. Sensitivity analysis was then conducted to analyze the business rationale for the application of MCPI over CSB across several market scenarios. It was found that MCPI would be better suited for capacities up to 150 000 metric tons per year, but that improvement in payback period was needed. Additionally, for MCPI approach to achieve acceptable payback periods, efforts are needed to reduce the cost of capital equipment and compress the schedule for ramping up modular production.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating the Role(s) of Human Actors in Complex System Design for Safety and Security

Traditional systems engineering demonstrates the importance of customer needs in scoping and defining design requirements; yet, in practice, other human stakeholders are often absent from early lifecycle phases. Human factors are often omitted in practice when evaluating and down-selecting design options due to constraints such as time, money, access to user populations, or difficulty in proving system robustness through the inclusion of human behaviors. Advances in systems engineering increasingly include non-technical influences into the design, deployment, operations, and maintenance of interacting components to achieve common performance objectives. Furthermore, such advances highlight the need to better account for the various roles of human actors to achieve desired performance outcomes in complex systems. Many of these efforts seek to infuse lessons and concepts from human factors (enhanced decision-making through Crew Resource Management), systems safety (Rasmussen's “drift toward danger”) and organization science (Giddens' recurrent human acts leading to emergent behaviors) into systems engineering to better understand how socio-technical interactions impact emergent system performance. Safety and security are examples of complex system performance outcomes that are directly impacted by varying roles of human actors. Using security performance of high consequence facilities as a representative use case, this article will outline the System Context Lenses to understand how to include various roles of human actors into systems engineering design. Several exemplar applications of this organizing lenses will be summarized and used to highlight more generalized insights for the broader systems engineering community.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Is $50/MWh solar for real? Falling project prices and rising capacity factors drive utility-scale PV toward economic competitiveness

Recently announced low-priced power purchase agreements (PPAs) for US utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) projects suggest $50/MWh solar might be viable under certain conditions. To explore this possibility, this paper draws on an increasing wealth of empirical data to analyze trends in three of the most important PPA price drivers: upfront installed project prices, operations, and maintenance (O&M) costs, and capacity factors. Average installed prices among a sample of utility-scale PV projects declined by more than one third (from 5.8/W AC to 3.7/WAC) from the 2007–2009 period through 2013, even as costlier systems with crystalline-silicon modules, sun tracking, and higher inverter loading ratios (ILRs) have constituted an increasing proportion of total utility-scale PV capacity (all values shown here are in 2013 dollars). Actual and projected O&M costs from a very small sample of projects appear to range from $20–$40/kW AC -year. Furthermore, the average net capacity factor is 30% for projects installed in 2012, up from 24% for projects installed in 2010, owing to better solar resources, higher ILRs, and greater use of tracking among the more recent projects. Based on these trends, a pro-forma financial model suggests that $50/MWh utility-scale PV is achievable using a combination of aggressive-but-achievable technical and financial input parameters (including receipt of the 30% federal investment tax credit). Although the US utility-scale PV market is still young, the rapid progress in the key metrics documented in this paper has made PV a viable competitor against other utility-scale renewable generators, and even conventional peaking generators, in certain regions of the country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Perspective: Performance Loss Rate in Photovoltaic Systems

Photovoltaic systems may underperform expectations for several reasons, including inaccurate initial estimates, suboptimal operations and maintenance, or component degradation. Accurate assessment of these loss factors aids in addressing root causes of underperformance and in realizing accurate expectations and models. The performance loss rate (PLR) is a commonly cited high‐level metric for the change in system output over time, but there is no precise, standard definition. Herein, an annualized definition of PLR that is inclusive of all loss factors and that can capture nonlinear changes to performance over time is proposed. The importance of distinguishing between recoverable and nonrecoverable losses which underly PLR is highlighted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scenario analysis for techno-economic model development of U.S. offshore wind support structures

Challenging bathymetry and soil conditions of future US offshore wind power plants might promote the use of multimember, fixed-bottom structures (or 'jackets') in place of monopiles. Support structures affect costs associated with the balance of system and operation and maintenance. Understanding the link between these costs and the main environmental design drivers is crucial in the quest for a lower levelized cost of energy, and it is the main rationale for this work. Actual cost and engineering data are still scarce; hence, we evaluated a simplified engineering approach to tie key site and turbine parameters (e.g. water depth, wave height, tower-head mass, hub height and generator rating) to the overall support weight. A jacket-and-tower sizing tool, part of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's system engineering software suite, was utilized to achieve mass-optimized support structures for 81 different configurations. This tool set provides preliminary sizing of all jacket components. Results showed reasonable agreement with the available industry data, and that the jacket mass is mainly driven by water depth, but hub height and tower-head mass become more influential at greater turbine ratings. A larger sensitivity of the structural mass to wave height and target eigenfrequency was observed for the deepest water conditions (>40 m). Thus, techno-economic analyses using this model should be based on accurate estimates of actual metocean conditions and turbine parameters especially for deep waters. Finally, the relationships derived from this study will inform National Renewable Energy Laboratory's offshore balance of system cost model, and they will be used to evaluate the impact of changes in technology on offshore wind lower levelized cost of energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Staying cool: The development of India's pioneering energy efficiency policy for chillers

Abstract Chillers are the key energy‐consuming piece of equipment in most large space cooling systems. They can account for more than 40% of total energy consumption in any typical commercial building and in specific industrial building installations depending on the product and process. With climate change driving rapidly rising demand for commercial and industrial cooling, especially in emerging economies, energy efficiency policies for chillers are crucial to moderate future electricity demand and thereby minimize greenhouse gas emissions. However, most developing and emerging economies lack energy efficiency policies for this significant and growing cooling equipment sector. India recently announced new energy efficiency policies for chillers, projected to avoid 28 TWh of electricity consumption and 23 million tons of CO 2 emissions cumulatively through 2030. This article presents a case study of the unique challenges and solutions required to design a new energy efficiency policy for chillers in India. First, the energy consumed in chiller systems is sensitive to building occupancy, load changes, seasonal variations, operation and maintenance, and climatic conditions. In order to address these sensitivities, the chiller testing standard in India factors local weather and temperature conditions into energy performance ratings to account for these sensitivities. Further, every large chiller is a customized product, therefore developing a viable policy and implementation process required collaboration with international and national experts in standardization, manufacturers, building consultants, and testing laboratories. This article is categorized under: Energy Efficiency > Economics and Policy Solar Energy: Thermal ‐‐> Climate and Environment

Mukherjee, P. K.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generation and representation of synthetic smart meter data

Advanced energy algorithms running at big-data scale will be necessary to identify, realize, and verify energy savings to meet government and utility goals of building energy efficiency. Any algorithm must be well characterized and validated before it is trusted to run at these scales. Smart meter data from real buildings will ultimately be required for the development, testing, and validation of these energy algorithms and processes. However, for initial development and testing, smart meter data are difficult to work with due to privacy restrictions, noise from unknown sources, data accessibility, and other concerns which can complicate algorithm development and validation. This paper describes a new methodology to generate synthetic smart meter data of electricity use in buildings using detailed building energy modeling, which aims to capture the variability and stochastics of real energy use in buildings. The methodology can create datasets tailored to represent specific scenarios with known truth and controllable amounts of synthetic noise. Knowledge of ground truth also allows the development and validation of enhanced processes which leverage building metadata, such as building type or size (floor area), in addition to smart meter data. The methodology described in this paper includes the key influencing factors of real-world building energy use including weather data, occupant-driven loads, building operation and maintenance practices, and special events. Data formats to support workflows leveraging both synthetic meter data and associated metadata are proposed and discussed. Finally, example use cases of the synthetic meter data are described to illustrate potential applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wave energy resource characterization employing joint distributions in frequency-direction-time domain

Joint and marginal distributions in the frequency, direction, and time domain are employed to demonstrate their value for wave energy resource characterization when full spectra are available. Insights gained through analysis of these distributions support wave energy converter concept design, operation and maintenance. Spatial trends in the wave energy resource and contributing wave energy systems along the continental shelf of the West Coast of the United States are investigated using the most recent two-dimensional wave spectra measurements at four buoys over an eleven year period (2008 to 2018). Resource hot spots and dominant resolved energy resource bands in the frequency-direction-time domain are delineated. Resource attributes, including frequency and directional spreading, and seasonal variability, are characterized using joint distributions and marginal distributions of wave power spectra. North Pacific westerly swells in the winter season, augmented by Aleutian low-pressure southwesterly swells, are the principal suppliers of the dominant resource and main drivers influencing resource attributes. In conclusion, the modification of these systems southward, especially the North Pacific westerly swells, explains the observed spatial resource trends. The dominant resource wave period shifts two seconds to higher wave periods, thirty degrees in the dominant direction band to a more northward orientation, and forward by one month.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗