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At least 973 records · Page 54

On-board Science Understanding: NASA Ames' Efforts

In the near future NASA intends to explore various regions of our solar system using robotic devices such as rovers, spacecraft, airplanes, and/or balloons. Such platforms will likely carry imaging devices, and a variety of analytical instruments intended to evaluate the chemical and mineralogical nature of the environment(s) that they encounter. Historically, mission operations have involved: (1) return of scientific data from the craft; (2) evaluation of the data by space scientists; (3) recommendations of the scientists regarding future mission activity; (4) commands for achieving these activities being transmitted to the craft; and (5) the activity being undertaken. This cycle is then repeated for the duration of the mission with command opportunities once or perhaps twice per day. In a rapidly changing environment, such as might be encountered by a rover traversing hundreds of meters a day or a spacecraft encountering an asteroid, this historical cycle is not amenable to rapid long range traverses, discovery of novelty, or rapid response to any unexpected situations. In addition to real-time response issues, the nature of imaging and/or spectroscopic devices are such that tremendous data volumes can be acquired, for example during a traverse. However, such data volumes can rapidly exceed on-board memory capabilities prior to the ability to transmit it to Earth. Additionally, the necessary communication band-widths are restrictive enough so that only a small portion of these data can actually be returned to Earth. Such scenarios clearly require the enabling of some crucial decisions to be made on-board by these robotic explorers. These decisions transcend the electromechanical control, health, and navigation issues associated with robotic operations. Instead they focus upon a long term goal of automating scientific discovery based upon data returned by sensors of the robot craft. Such an approach would eventually enable it to understand what is interesting because the data deviates from expectations generated by current theories/models of planetary processes that could have resulted in the observed data. Such interesting data and/or conclusions can then be selectively transmitted to Earth thus reducing memory and communications demands.

Roush, Ted L.↗

Predicting Operator Execution Times Using CogTool

Researchers and developers of NextGen systems can use predictive human performance modeling tools as an initial approach to obtain skilled user performance times analytically, before system testing with users. This paper describes the CogTool models for a two pilot crew executing two different types of a datalink clearance acceptance tasks, and on two different simulation platforms. The CogTool time estimates for accepting and executing Required Time of Arrival and Interval Management clearances were compared to empirical data observed in video tapes and registered in simulation files. Results indicate no statistically significant difference between empirical data and the CogTool predictions. A population comparison test found no significant differences between the CogTool estimates and the empirical execution times for any of the four test conditions. We discuss modeling caveats and considerations for applying CogTool to crew performance modeling in advanced cockpit environments.

Santiago-Espada, Yamira↗

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

LOD tidal oscillations↗

Terra, Aqua, and Aura Direct Broadcast - Providing Earth Science Data for Realtime Applications

The need for realtime data to aid in disaster management and monitoring has been clearly demonstrated for the past several years, e.g., during the tsunami in Indonesia in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, fires, etc. Users want (and often require) the means to get earth observation data for operational regional use as soon as they are generated by satellites. This is especially true for events that can cause loss of human life and/or property. To meet this need, NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites, Terra and Aqua, provide realtime data useful to disaster management teams. This paper describes the satellites, their Direct Broadcast (DB) capabilities, the data uses, what it takes to deploy a DB ground station, and the future of the DB.

Kelly, Angelita C.↗

Enrichment of the Galactic disc with neutron-capture elements: Gd, Dy, and Th

The study of the origin of heavy elements is one of the main goals of nuclear astrophysics. In this paper, we present new observational data for the heavy r-process elements gadolinium (Gd, Z= 64), dysprosium (Dy, Z= 66), and thorium (Th, Z= 90) in a sample of 276 Galactic disc stars (–1.0 < [Fe/H] < + 0.3). The stellar spectra have a high resolution of 42 000 and 75 000, and the signal-to-noise ratio higher than 100. The LTE abundances of Gd, Dy, and Th have been determined by comparing the observed and synthetic spectra for three Gd lines (149 stars), four Dy lines (152 stars), and the Th line at 4019.13 Å (170 stars). For about 70 percent of the stars in our sample, Gd and Dy are measured for the first time, and Th for 95 percent of the stars. Typical errors vary from 0.07 to 0.16 dex. This paper provides the first extended set of Th observations in the Milky Way disc. Here together with europium (Eu, Z= 63) data from our previous studies, we have compared these new observations with nucleosynthesis predictions and Galactic Chemical Evolution simulations. We confirm that [Gd/Fe] and [Dy/Fe] show the same behaviour of Eu. We study with GCE simulations the evolution of [Th/Fe] in comparison with [Eu/Fe], showing that unlike Eu, either the Th production is metallicity dependent in case of a unique source of the r-process in the Galaxy, or the frequency of the Th-rich r-process source is decreasing with the increase in [Fe/H].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine learning and serving of discrete field theories

A method for machine learning and serving of discrete field theories in physics is developed. The learning algorithm trains a discrete field theory from a set of observational data on a spacetime lattice, and the serving algorithm uses the learned discrete field theory to predict new observations of the field for new boundary and initial conditions. The approach of learning discrete field theories overcomes the difficulties associated with learning continuous theories by artificial intelligence. The serving algorithm of discrete field theories belongs to the family of structure-preserving geometric algorithms, which have been proven to be superior to the conventional algorithms based on discretization of differential equations. The effectiveness of the method and algorithms developed is demonstrated using the examples of nonlinear oscillations and the Kepler problem. In particular, the learning algorithm learns a discrete field theory from a set of data of planetary orbits similar to what Kepler inherited from Tycho Brahe in 1601, and the serving algorithm correctly predicts other planetary orbits, including parabolic and hyperbolic escaping orbits, of the solar system without learning or knowing Newton’s laws of motion and universal gravitation. The proposed algorithms are expected to be applicable when the effects of special relativity and general relativity are important.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A learning-based data-driven forecast approach for predicting future reservoir performance

Quantification of the predictive uncertainty of subsurface models has long been investigated. The traditional workflow is to calibrate prior models to match observed data, and then use the posterior models to simulate future system performance. Not only are these procedures computationally expensive, but they also have issues in maintaining geological model constraints during the calibration step. Data space inversion (DSI) was introduced recently to predict future system performance without the iterative history matching or model calibration step. In general, DSI approaches seek to establish a statistical relationship between the observed and forecast variables, as well as to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the forecast variables, by using an ensemble of uncalibrated prior models. Existing DSI approaches all require a number of complex transformation and mapping operations, which may deter their widespread use. Here in this study, we introduce a new and simpler DSI approach, the learning-based, data-driven forecast approach (LDFA), by combining dimension reduction and machine learning techniques to quickly provide accurate forecast results and reliably quantify corresponding uncertainty in the results. Our LDFA framework is demonstrated using two supervised learning algorithms, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), on two representative examples from reservoir engineering and geological carbon storage. Results suggest that our approach provides accurate forecast results (e.g., future oil production rate or cumulative injected CO 2 ) and reasonable predictive uncertainty intervals. Our framework is generic and may be applied to other surface and subsurface problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Methods of sequential estimation for determining initial data in numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.

Cohn, S. E.↗

Incorporating JULES into NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Investigations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

NASA's Land Information System (LIS; lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation framework developed over the past decade with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. LIS features a high performance and flexible design, and operates on an ensemble of land surface models for extension over user-specified regional or global domains. The extensible interfaces of LIS allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models (LSMs), land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimization algorithms. In addition, LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation and uncertainty estimation, and has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. A visiting fellowship is currently underway to implement JULES into LIS and to undertake some fundamental science on the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. An overview of the LIS system, features, and sample results will be presented in an effort to engage the community in the potential advantages of LIS-JULES for a range of applications. Ongoing efforts to develop a framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling will also be presented using the suite of LSM and PBL schemes available in LIS and WRF along with observations from the U. S .. Southern Great Plains. This methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph↗

A report on the upper-level wind conditions preceding and during the Shuttle Challenger (STS 51L) explosion

The prelaunch, launch, and postlaunch synoptic-scale weather conditions on January 28, 1986 are described. Particular consideration is given to upper-level jet streams, vertical wind shear, and the possible effect of shear-induced turbulence on Cape Canaveral at the time of the Shuttle launch. General data revealing the relations between wind shear and turbulence and jet streams are discussed. The NWS operational and surface radiosonde data, visible and IR GOES imagery, and total ozone data obtained from TOMS on Nimbus-7 are analyzed. Numerical simulations of the weather conditions were conducted. The simulations and observational data are compared, and the data reveal the juxtaposition of two distinct jet-stream systems (a polar front jet and a subtropical jet) over north-central Florida the morning of the launch. Recommendations for improving the observing system at Cape Canaveral are discussed.

Uccellini, Louis W.↗

Internal energy dissipation of gamma-ray bursts observed with Swift: Precursors, prompt gamma-rays, extended emission, and late X-ray flares

We jointly analyze the gamma-ray burst (GRB) data observed with Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) and X-ray Telescope on board the Swift mission to present a global view on the internal energy dissipation processes in GRBs, including precursors, prompt gamma-ray emission, extended soft gamma-ray emission, and late X-ray flares. The Bayesian block method is utilized to analyze the BAT light curves to identify various emission episodes. Our results suggest that these emission components likely share the same physical origin, which is the repeated activation of the GRB central engine. What we observe in the gamma-ray band may be a small part of more extended underlying activities. The precursor emission, which is detected in about 10% of Swift GRBs, is preferably detected in those GRBs that have a massive star core-collapse origin. The soft extended emission tail, on the other hand, is preferably detected in those GRBs that have a compact star merger origin. Bright X-ray emission is detected during the BAT quiescent phases prior to subsequent gamma-ray peaks, implying that X-ray emission may be detectable prior the BAT trigger time. Future GRB alert instruments with soft X-ray capability are essential for revealing the early stages of GRB central engine activities, and shedding light on jet composition and the jet launching mechanism in GRBs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for Higgs boson off-shell production in proton-proton collisions at 7 and 8 TeV and derivation of constraints on its total decay width

A search is presented for the Higgs boson off-shell production in gluon fusion and vector boson fusion processes with the Higgs boson decaying into a WW pair and the W bosons decaying leptonically. The data observed in this analysis are used to constrain the Higgs boson total decay width. The analysis is based on the data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 4.9 inverse femtobarns at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and 19.4 inverse femtobarns at 8 TeV, respectively. An observed (expected) upper limit on the off-shell Higgs boson event yield normalised to the standard model prediction of 2.4 (6.2) is obtained at the 95% CL for the gluon fusion process and of 19.3 (34.4) for the vector boson fusion process. Observed and expected limits on the total width of 26 and 66 MeV are found, respectively, at the 95% confidence level (CL). These limits are combined with the previous result in the ZZ channel leading to observed and expected 95% CL upper limits on the width of 13 and 26 MeV, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Interpolating Fields of Carbon Monoxide Data Using a Hybrid Statistical-Physical Model

Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a pollutant gas of which the US congress has mandated regular monitoring, and satellite sensors can be used to retrieve regional concentrations of CO over several vertical layers. However, CO at cloudy locations cannot be observed and have to be estimated from the observed data set, resulting in an interpolation problem. The current state-of-the-art solution is to combine prior information, computed by a deterministic physical model, with observations. However, the deterministic model may introduce uncertainties that do not derive from the data. While sharing certain features with the physical model, this paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model for interpolating CO on a 3-dimensional spatial grid, across time. To our knowledge such a model has not been considered before. The model is applied to a hypothetical air-quality monitoring scenario, and is compared to existing interpolation methods. The results provide motivation for the use of the statistical model for regional to local applications.

Arellano, A. A.↗

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

Simple, low-cost and accurate data-driven geophysical forecasting with learned kernels

Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Search for new phenomena in events with a photon and missing transverse momentum in p p collisions at s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in events with an energetic photon and large missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC are reported. Data were collected in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb⁻¹. The observed data are well described by the expected Standard Model backgrounds. The expected (observed) upper limit on the fiducial cross section for the production of events with a photon and large missing transverse momentum is 6.1 (5.3) fb at 95% confidence level. Exclusion limits are presented on models of new phenomena with large extra spatial dimensions, supersymmetric quarks, and direct pair production of dark-matter candidates.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for new phenomena in events with a photon and missing transverse momentum in p p collisions at s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

CERN-LHC. Results of a search for new phenomena in events with an energetic photon and large missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC are reported. Data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb-1. The observed data are well described by the expected Standard Model backgrounds. The expected (observed) upper limit on the fiducial cross section for the production of such events is 6.1 (5.3) fb at 95% confidence level. Exclusion limits are presented on models of new phenomena with large extra spatial dimensions, supersymmetric quarks, and direct pair production of dark-matter candidates.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Smart Handoffs: Preserving User Context Between Tools and Services Related to NASA's EOSDIS Data Archive

NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is tasked with archiving and distributing Earth Observation data across a range of disciplines, including atmospheric science, oceanography, land processes, natural hazards, solar radiance and even socioeconomic aspects relating to the environment. Given the breadth of disciplines and depth of data that EOSDIS provides, the efficient and intuitive discovery and usage of data by a scientist is of paramount importance. An effective data gathering workflow may involve switching from general use discovery tools to a more bespoke services designed specifically for the scientist's discipline. Providing concrete interoperability between such tools could vastly improve the efficiency of a scientist's workflow.

Analytics↗