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At least 973 records · Page 54

Measuring the thermal and ionization state of the low- z IGM using likelihood free inference

ABSTRACT We present a new approach to measure the power-law temperature density relationship $T=T_0 (\rho/ \bar{\rho })^{\gamma -1}$ and the UV background photoionization rate $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ of the intergalactic medium (IGM) based on the Voigt profile decomposition of the Ly α forest into a set of discrete absorption lines with Doppler parameter b and the neutral hydrogen column density $N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}$. Previous work demonstrated that the shape of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution is sensitive to the IGM thermal parameters T0 and γ, whereas our new inference algorithm also takes into account the normalization of the distribution, i.e. the line-density dN/dz, and we demonstrate that precise constraints can also be obtained on $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$. We use density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) to emulate the dependence of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution on IGM parameters trained on an ensemble of 624 nyx hydrodynamical simulations at z = 0.1, which we combine with a Gaussian process emulator of the normalization. To demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, we generate hundreds of realizations of realistic mock HST/COS data sets, each comprising 34 quasar sightlines, and forward model the noise and resolution to match the real data. We use this large ensemble of mocks to extensively test our inference and empirically demonstrate that our posterior distributions are robust. Our analysis shows that by applying our new approach to existing Ly α forest spectra at z ≃ 0.1, one can measure the thermal and ionization state of the IGM with very high precision ($\sigma _{\log T_0} \sim 0.08$ dex, σγ ∼ 0.06, and $\sigma _{\log \Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}} \sim 0.07$ dex).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unveiling acoustic physics of the CMB using nonparametric estimation of the temperature angular power spectrum for Planck

Estimation of the angular power spectrum is one of the important steps in Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data analysis. Here, we present a nonparametric estimate of the temperature angular power spectrum for the Planck 2013 CMB data. The method implemented in this work is model-independent, and allows the data, rather than the model, to dictate the fit. Since one of the main targets of our analysis is to test the consistency of the ΛCDM model with Planck 2013 data, we use the nuisance parameters associated with the best-fit ΛCDM angular power spectrum to remove foreground contributions from the data at multipoles ℓ ≥50. We thus obtain a combined angular power spectrum data set together with the full covariance matrix, appropriately weighted over frequency channels. Our subsequent nonparametric analysis resolves six peaks (and five dips) up to ℓ ∼1850 in the temperature angular power spectrum. We present uncertainties in the peak/dip locations and heights at the 95% confidence level. We further show how these reflect the harmonicity of acoustic peaks, and can be used for acoustic scale estimation. Based on this nonparametric formalism, we found the best-fit ΛCDM model to be at 36% confidence distance from the center of the nonparametric confidence set—this is considerably larger than the confidence distance (9%) derived earlier from a similar analysis of the WMAP 7-year data. Another interesting result of our analysis is that at low multipoles, the Planck data do not suggest any upturn, contrary to the expectation based on the integrated Sachs-Wolfe contribution in the best-fit ΛCDM cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessing Uncertainty and Repeatability in Time-Lapse VSP Monitoring of CO2 Injection in a Brine Aquifer, Frio Formation, Texas (A Case Study)

This study was done to assess the repeatability and uncertainty of time-lapse VSP response to CO 2 injection in the Frio formation near Houston Texas. A work flow was built to assess the effect of time-lapse injected CO 2 into two Frio brine reservoir intervals, the ‘C’ sand (Frio1) and the ‘Blue sand’ (Frio2). The time-lapse seismic amplitude variations with sensor depth for both reservoirs Frio1 and Frio2 were computed by subtracting the seismic response of the base survey from each of the two monitor seismic surveys. Source site 1 has been considered as one of the best sites for evaluating the time-lapse response after injection. For site 1, the computed timelapse NRMS levels after processing had been compared to the estimated time-lapse NRMS level before processing for different control reflectors, and for brine aquifers Frio1, and Frio2 to quantify detectability of amplitude difference. As the main interest is to analyze the time-lapse amplitude variations, different scenarios have been considered. Three different survey scenarios were considered: the base survey which was performed before injection, monitor1 performed after the first injection operation, and monitor2 which was after the second injection. The first scenario was base-monitor1, the second was basemonitor2, and the third was monitor1-monitor2. We considered three ‘control’ reflections above the Frio to assist removal of overburden changes, and concluded that third control reflector (CR3) is the most favorable for the first scenario in terms of NRMS response, and first control reflector (CR1) is the most favorable for the second and third scenarios in terms of NRMS response. The NRMS parameter is shown to be a useful measure to assess the effect of processing on time-lapse data. The overall NRMS for the Frio VSP data set was found to be in the range of 30% to 80% following basic processing. This could be considered as an estimated baseline in assessing the utility of VSP for CO 2 monitoring. This study shows that the CO 2 injection in brine reservoir Frio1 (the ‘C’ sand unit) does induce a relative change in amplitude response, and for Frio2 (the ‘Blue’ sand unit) an amplitude change has been also detected, but in both cases the uncertainty, as measured by NRMS indicates the reservoir changes are, at best, only slightly above the noise level, and often below the noise level of the overall data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis Approach and Data Package for Mayak Public Doses: Data Supporting the Calculation of Representative Doses to Members of the Public from Airborne Releases of 131 I at the Mayak Production Association from 1948 through 1972

Historical activities at facilities producing nuclear materials for weapons released radioactivity into the air and water. Past studies in the United States have evaluated the release, atmospheric transport and environmental accumulation of 131 I from the nuclear facilities at Hanford in Washington State and the resulting dose to members of the public (Farris et al. 1994). A multi-year dose reconstruction effort (Mokrov et al. 2004) is also being conducted to produce representative dose estimates for members of the public living near Mayak, Russia, from atmospheric releases of 131 I at the facilities of the Mayak Production Association. The approach to calculating individual doses to members of the public from historical releases of airborne 131 I has the following general steps: • Construct estimates of releases 131 I to the air from production facilities. • Model the transport of 131 I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation. • Model the accumulation of 131 I in soil, water and food products (environmental media). • Calculate the dose for an individual by matching the appropriate lifestyle and consumption data for the individual to the concentrations of 131 I in environmental media at their residence location. A number of computer codes were developed to facilitate the study of airborne 131 I emissions at Hanford. Of particular interest is DESCARTES code that modeled accumulation of 131 I in environmental media (Miley et al. 1994). In addition, the CIDER computer code estimated annual doses to individuals (Eslinger et al. 1994) using the equations and parameters specific to Hanford (Snyder et al. 1994). Several of the computer codes developed to model 131 I releases from Hanford are general enough to be used for other facilities. Additional codes have been developed, including the new individual dose code CiderF (Eslinger and Napier 2013), and applied to historical releases of 131 I from Mayak. This document provides a data package that identifies computer code runs and associated input and output files prepared for the purpose of calculating doses to members of the public from atmospheric releases of 131 I at the Mayak Production Association for the time period 1948 through 1972.

Mayak↗

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical tests of galactic dynamo theory

Mean-field galactic dynamo theory is the leading theory to explain the prevalence of regular magnetic fields in spiral galaxies, but its systematic comparison with observations is still incomplete and fragmentary. Here we compare predictions of mean-field dynamo models to observational data on magnetic pitch angle and the strength of the mean magnetic field. We demonstrate that a standard α{sup 2}Ω dynamo model produces pitch angles of the regular magnetic fields of nearby galaxies that are reasonably consistent with available data. The dynamo estimates of the magnetic field strength are generally within a factor of a few of the observational values. Reasonable agreement between theoretical and observed pitch angles generally requires the turbulent correlation time τ to be in the range of 10–20 Myr, in agreement with standard estimates. Moreover, good agreement also requires that the ratio of the ionized gas scale height to root-mean-square turbulent velocity increases with radius. Our results thus widen the possibilities to constrain interstellar medium parameters using observations of magnetic fields. This work is a step toward systematic statistical tests of galactic dynamo theory. Such studies are becoming more and more feasible as larger data sets are acquired using current and up-and-coming instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters Using Surface Flux and Runoff Observations in the Community Land Model

This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Two inversion strategies, the deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) - Bayesian inversion approaches, are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the least-square fitting provides little improvements in the model simulations but the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches are consistent - as more information comes in, the predictive intervals of the calibrated parameters become narrower and the misfits between the calculated and observed responses decrease. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to the different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

inverse, modeling, hydrologic, parameters, flux, r↗

TH-CD-207A-05: Lung Surface Deformation Vector Fields Prediction by Monitoring Respiratory Surrogate Signals

Purpose: In this study, we developed and evaluated a method for predicting lung surface deformation vector fields (SDVFs) based on surrogate signals such as chest and abdomen motion at selected locations and spirometry measurements. Methods: A Patient-specific 3D triangular surface mesh of the lung region at end-expiration (EE) phase was obtained by threshold-based segmentation method. For each patient, a spirometer recorded the flow volume changes of the lungs; and 192 selected points at a regular spacing of 2cm X 2cm matrix points over a total area of 34cm X 24cm on the surface of chest and abdomen was used to detect chest wall motions. Preprocessing techniques such as QR factorization with column pivoting (QRCP) were employed to remove redundant observations of the chest and abdominal area. To create a statistical model between the lung surface and the corresponding surrogate signals, we developed a predictive model based on canonical ridge regression (CRR). Two unique weighting vectors were selected for each vertex on the surface of the lung, and they were optimized during the training process using the all other phases of 4D-CT except the end-inspiration (EI) phase. These parameters were employed to predict the vertices locations of a testing data set, which was the EI phase of 4D-CT. Results: For ten lung cancer patients, the deformation vector field of each vertex of lung surface mesh was estimated from the external motion at selected positions on the chest wall surface plus spirometry measurements. The average estimation of 98th percentile of error was less than 1 mm (AP= 0.85, RL= 0.61, and SI= 0.82). Conclusion: The developed predictive model provides a non-invasive approach to derive lung boundary condition. Together with personalized biomechanical respiration modelling, the proposed model can be used to derive the lung tumor motion during radiation therapy accurately from non-invasive measurements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

Magnetic structure, excitations and short-range order in honeycomb Na 2 Ni 2 TeO 6

Na 2 Ni 2 TeO 6 has a layered hexagonal structure with a honeycomb lattice constituted by Ni 2+ and a chiral charge distribution of Na + that resides between the Ni layers. In the present work, the antiferromagnetic transition temperature of Na 2 Ni 2 TeO 6 is confirmed at TN˜ 27 K, and further, it is found to be robust up to 8 T magnetic field and 1.2 GPa external pressure; and, without any frequency-dependence. Slight deviations from nominal Na-content (up to 5%) does not seem to influence the magnetic transition temperature, TN. Isothermal magnetization curves remain almost linear up to 13 T. Our analysis of neutron diffraction data shows that the magnetic structure of Na 2 Ni 2 TeO 6 is faithfully described by a model consisting of two phases described by the commensurate wave vectors vec kc, (0.5 0 0) and (0.5 0 0.5), with an additional short-range order component incorporated in to the latter phase. Consequently, a zig-zag long-range ordered magnetic phase of Ni 2+ results in the compound, mixed with a short-range ordered phase, which is supported by our specific heat data. Theoretical computations based on density functional theory (DFT) predict predominantly in-plane magnetic exchange interactions that conform to a J1-J2-J3 model with a strong J3 term. The computationally predicted parameters lead to a reliable estimate for TN and the experimentally observed zig-zag magnetic structure. A spin wave excitation in Na 2 Ni 2 TeO 6 at E ˜ 5 meV at T = 5 K is mapped out through inelastic neutron scattering experiments, which is reproduced by linear spin wave theory calculations using the J values from our computations. Our specific heat data and inelastic neutron scattering data strongly indicate the presence of short-range spin correlations, at T > TN, stemming from incipient antiferromagnetic clusters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to extend ShakeAlert to include the contribution of building response to provide a more accurate estimation of the expected shaking intensity for tall buildings. Currently, the supposedly ideal solution of analyzing detailed finite element models of buildings under predicted ground-motion time histories is not theoretically or practically feasible. The authors have recently investigated existing simple methods to estimate peak floor acceleration (PFA) and determined these simple formulas are not practically suitable. Instead, this article explores another approach by extending the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) to EEW, considering that every component involved in building response prediction is uncertain in the EEW scenario. Additionally, while this idea is not new and has been proposed by other researchers, it has two shortcomings: (1) the simple beam model used for response prediction is prone to modeling uncertainty, which has not been quantified, and (2) the ground motions used for probabilistic demand models are not suitable for EEW applications. In this article, we address these two issues by incorporating modeling errors into the parameters of the beam model and using a new set of ground motions, respectively. We demonstrate how this approach could practically work using data from a 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles. Using the criteria and thresholds employed by previous researchers, we show that if peak ground acceleration (PGA) is accurately estimated, this approach can predict the expected level of human comfort in tall buildings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems With Inverter-Based Resources: Integrating Physics-Based and Data-Driven Approaches

Here, in this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, we utilize partial physical knowledge of the system, including the inverters’ structures and control diagrams, as well as the equivalent network model simplified through Kron reduction. The white-box model containing unknown parameters is then constructed with mathematical equations and an optimization-based method is subsequently employed to identify these unknown parameters within the white-box model. Next, the graybox modeling framework is then constructed by embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model (represented using a neural network). Finally, the black-box section is trained using the collected input-output datasets and the gray-box model is then obtained. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our gray-box modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The clustering of DESI-like luminous red galaxies using photometric redshifts

ABSTRACT We present measurements of the redshift-dependent clustering of a DESI-like luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample selected from the Legacy Survey imaging data set, and use the halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework to fit the clustering signal. The photometric LRG sample in this study contains 2.7 million objects over the redshift range of 0.4 < z < 0.9 over 5655 deg2. We have developed new photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates using the Legacy Survey DECam and WISE photometry, with σNMAD = 0.02 precision for LRGs. We compute the projected correlation function using new methods that maximize signal-to-noise ratio while incorporating redshift uncertainties. We present a novel algorithm for dividing irregular survey geometries into equal-area patches for jackknife resampling. For a five-parameter HOD model fit using the MultiDark halo catalogue, we find that there is little evolution in HOD parameters except at the highest redshifts. The inferred large-scale structure bias is largely consistent with constant clustering amplitude over time. In an appendix, we explore limitations of Markov chain Monte Carlo fitting using stochastic likelihood estimates resulting from applying HOD methods to N-body catalogues, and present a new technique for finding best-fitting parameters in this situation. Accompanying this paper, we have released the Photometric Redshifts for the Legacy Surveys catalogue of photo-z’s obtained by applying the methods used in this work to the full Legacy Survey Data Release 8 data set. This catalogue provides accurate photometric redshifts for objects with z < 21 over more than 16 000 deg2 of sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatial frequency spectrum of the x-ray scatter distribution in CBCT projections

Purpose: X-ray scatter is a source of significant image quality loss in cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). The use of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations separating primary and scattered photons has allowed the structure and nature of the scatter distribution in CBCT to become better elucidated. This work seeks to quantify the structure and determine a suitable basis function for the scatter distribution by examining its spectral components using Fourier analysis.Methods: The scatter distribution projection data were simulated using a CBCT MC model based on the EGSnrc code. CBCT projection data, with separated primary and scatter signal, were generated for a 30.6 cm diameter water cylinder [single angle projection with varying axis-to-detector distance (ADD) and bowtie filters] and two anthropomorphic phantoms (head and pelvis, 360 projections sampled every 1°, with and without a compensator). The Fourier transform of the resulting scatter distributions was computed and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. A novel metric called the scatter frequency width (SFW) is introduced to determine the scatter distribution's frequency content. The frequency content results are used to determine a set basis functions, consisting of low-frequency sine and cosine functions, to fit and denoise the scatter distribution generated from MC simulations using a reduced number of photons and projections. The signal recovery is implemented using Fourier filtering (low-pass Butterworth filter) and interpolation. Estimates of the scatter distribution are used to correct and reconstruct simulated projections.Results: The spatial and angular frequencies are contained within a maximum frequency of 0.1 cm{sup −1} and 7/(2π) rad{sup −1} for the imaging scenarios examined, with these values varying depending on the object and imaging setup (e.g., ADD and compensator). These data indicate spatial and angular sampling every 5 cm and π/7 rad (∼25°) can be used to properly capture the scatter distribution, with reduced sampling possible depending on the imaging scenario. Using a low-pass Butterworth filter, tuned with the SFW values, to denoise the scatter projection data generated from MC simulations using 10{sup 6} photons resulted in an error reduction of greater than 85% for the estimating scatter in single and multiple projections. Analysis showed that the use of a compensator helped reduce the error in estimating the scatter distribution from limited photon simulations by more than 37% when compared to the case without a compensator for the head and pelvis phantoms. Reconstructions of simulated head phantom projections corrected by the filtered and interpolated scatter estimates showed improvements in overall image quality.Conclusions: The spatial frequency content of the scatter distribution in CBCT is found to be contained within the low frequency domain. The frequency content is modulated both by object and imaging parameters (ADD and compensator). The low-frequency nature of the scatter distribution allows for a limited set of sine and cosine basis functions to be used to accurately represent the scatter signal in the presence of noise and reduced data sampling decreasing MC based scatter estimation time. Compensator induced modulation of the scatter distribution reduces the frequency content and improves the fitting results.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

BeyondPlanck: VII. Bayesian estimation of gain and absolute calibration for cosmic microwave background experiments

We present a Bayesian calibration algorithm for cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations as implemented within the global end-to-end BEYONDPLANCK framework and applied to the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data. Following the most recent Planck analysis, we decomposed the full time-dependent gain into a sum of three nearly orthogonal components: one absolute calibration term, common to all detectors, one time-independent term that can vary between detectors, and one time-dependent component that was allowed to vary between one-hour pointing periods. Each term was then sampled conditionally on all other parameters in the global signal model through Gibbs sampling. The absolute calibration is sampled using only the orbital dipole as a reference source, while the two relative gain components were sampled using the full sky signal, including the orbital and Solar CMB dipoles, CMB fluctuations, and foreground contributions. We discuss various aspects of the data that influence gain estimation, including the dipole-polarization quadrupole degeneracy and processing masks. Comparing our solution to previous pipelines, we find good agreement in general, with relative deviations of -0.67% (-0.84%) for 30 GHz, 0.12% (-0.04%) for 44 GHz and -0.03% (-0.64%) for 70 GHz, compared to Planck PR4 and Planck 2018, respectively. We note that the BEYONDPLANCK calibration was performed globally, which results in better inter-frequency consistency than previous estimates. Additionally, WMAP observations were used actively in the BEYONDPLANCK analysis, which both breaks internal degeneracies in the Planck data set and results in an overall better agreement with WMAP. Finally, we used a Wiener filtering approach to smoothing the gain estimates. We show that this method avoids artifacts in the correlated noise maps as a result of oversmoothing the gain solution, which is difficult to avoid with methods like boxcar smoothing, as Wiener filtering by construction maintains a balance between data fidelity and prior knowledge. Although our presentation and algorithm are currently oriented toward LFI processing, the general procedure is fully generalizable to other experiments, as long as the Solar dipole signal is available to be used for calibration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Informed total-error-minimizing priors: Interpretable cosmological parameter constraints despite complex nuisance effects

While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A study of shock initiation experiments for the explosive PBX 9502 using three reactive burn models

Shock to detonation transition (SDT) experiments are essential in calibrating and validating reactive burn models for explosives. This work investigates the large collection of SDT test data for the explosive PBX 9502 at ambient temperature that was presented by Gustavsen, Sheffield, and Alcon [Journal of Applied Physics, 99, 114907 (2006)]. We first analyze the experimental data and compare two different methods of determining the shock transition time/distance (namely, the bilinear method and the single-curve method). This reveals some of the uncertainty in estimating shock transition points, which contributes to scatter in Pop-plot data. Next, we compare the WSD, AWSD, and SURFplus reactive burn models for a collection of approximately 20 experimental shots using the FLAG hydrocode. Error estimates are used to quantify how well each reactive burn model (and their respective parameter calibrations) performs at predicting the SDT process for a range of loading conditions. Additionally, the importance of mesh resolution and numerical dissipation in SDT simulations will be assessed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Updated respiration routines alter spatio-temporal patterns of carbon cycling in a global land surface model

Abstract We updated the routines used to estimate leaf maintenance respiration (MR) in the Energy Land Model (ELM) using a comprehensive global respiration data base. The updated algorithm includes a temperature acclimating base rate, an updated instantaneous temperature response, and new plant functional type specific parameters. The updated MR algorithm resulted in a very large increase in global MR of 16.1 Pg (38%), but the signal was not geographically uniform. The increase was concentrated in the tropics and humid warm-temperate forests. The increase in MR led to large but proportionally smaller decreases in global net primary production (19%) and in average global leaf area index (15%). The effect on global gross primary production (GPP) was a more modest 5.7 Pg (4%). A detailed site level analysis also demonstrated a wide range of effects the updated algorithm can have on the seasonal cycle of GPP. Output from the updated and old models did not differ markedly in how closely they matched a suite of benchmarks. Given the substantial impact on the land surface carbon cycle, a neutral influence on model benchmarks, and better alignment with empirical evidence, an MR algorithm similar to the one presented here should be adopted into ELM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗