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Optimizing infrasound observations for sample return capsule re-entry: Insights from OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2

The atmospheric entry of meteoroids presents a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, posing challenges for systematic observation and detailed characterization. Such events are nonetheless critical for advancing understanding of acoustic wave propagation, atmospheric structure, and entry dynamics. In contrast, sample return capsules (SRCs) from space missions follow well constrained re-entry trajectories, enabling planned observations of shock wave generation and propagation under controlled conditions. This study compares two SRC atmospheric entries, Hayabusa2 in 2020 and OSIRIS-REx in 2023, to assess how different infrasound array configurations influence shock wave detection and trajectory validation. Hayabusa2’s re-entry was monitored using a distributed network of 28 portable infrasound sensors across seven arrays in Woomera, Australia, permitting three-dimensional reconstruction of the trajectory and analysis of wave characteristics. For OSIRIS-REx, a compact four-sensor array deployed near Eureka Airport provided trajectory confirmation through arrival-time differences and back-azimuth estimates. Spectral and waveform analyses revealed differences in signal properties associated with variations in entry angle and velocity. The results illustrate both the strengths and the limitations of the deployed array configurations. The dense and distributed arrays during Hayabusa2’s re-entry enabled detailed trajectory reconstruction, whereas the compact array at Eureka primarily provided confirmation of signal coherence and back-azimuth consistency. These case studies highlight that even relatively small arrays, if located close to the predicted ground track, can still capture useful information on arrival direction and timing. Such insights provide practical guidance for planning future observational campaigns of SRC returns and other controlled atmospheric entries, and may also inform approaches to opportunistic observations of meteoroid events and other atmospheric acoustic phenomena.

celestial mechanics: orbit determination↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission specifically designed to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational microwave sensors. NASA and JAXA will deploy a Core Observatory in 2014 to serve as a reference satellite to unify precipitation measurements from the constellation of sensors. The GPM Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a conical-scanning multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The DPR will be the first dual-frequency radar in space to provide not only measurements of 3-D precipitation structures but also quantitative information on microphysical properties of precipitating particles. The DPR and GMI measurements will together provide a database that relates vertical hydrometeor profiles to multi-frequency microwave radiances over a variety of environmental conditions across the globe. This combined database will be used as a common transfer standard for improving the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. For global coverage, GPM relies on existing satellite programs and new mission opportunities from a consortium of partners through bilateral agreements with either NASA or JAXA. Each constellation member may have its unique scientific or operational objectives but contributes microwave observations to GPM for the generation and dissemination of unified global precipitation data products. In addition to the DPR and GMI on the Core Observatory, the baseline GPM constellation consists of the following sensors: (1) Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) instruments on the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR-2) on the GCOM-W1 satellite of JAXA, (3) the Multi-Frequency Microwave Scanning Radiometer (MADRAS) and the multi-channel microwave humidity sounder (SAPHIR) on the French-Indian MeghaTropiques satellite, (4) the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-19, (5) MHS instruments on MetOp satellites launched by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), (6) the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), and (7) ATMS instruments on the NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites. Data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may also become available through international collaboration under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). The current generation of global rainfall products combines observations from a network of uncoordinated satellite missions using a variety of merging techniques. GPM will provide "next-generation" precipitation products characterized by: (1) more accurate instantaneous precipitation estimate (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a consistent framework, and (3) unified precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori hydrometeor database constrained by combined radar/radiometer measurements provided by the GPM Core Observatory. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals. GPM will provide a key measurement to improve understanding of global water cycle variability and freshwater availability in a changing climate. The DPR and GMI measurements will offer insights into 3-dimensional structures of hurricanes and midlatitude storms, microphysical properties of precipitating particles, and latent heat associated with precipitation processes. The GPM mission will also make data available in near realtime (within 3 hours of observations) forocietal applications ranging from position fixes of storm centers, numerical weather prediction, flood forecasting, freshwater management, landslide warning, crop prediction, to tracking of water-borne diseases. An overview of the GPM mission design, retrieval strategy, ground validation activities, and international science collaboration will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

An updated estimate of the Mu2e experiment sensitivity

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a negative muon into an electron inside the field of a nucleus. This process does not conserve charged-lepton flavour and is heavily suppressed in the Standard Model (SM), with a branching ratio < 10-50. Any evidence of it would be an undeniable evidence of new physics beyond the SM. The project sets out to achieve a single event sensitivity of $\sim 3 × 10^{-17}$ on the ratio between the probability for a conversion of a negative muon into an electron and the one for a muon capture by the nucleus. Such a sensitivity would represent a 4 orders of magnitude improvement on the previous upper limit for the process, making possible to test predictions of different extensions of the SM. Mu2e uses three superconducting solenoids to produce and measure the muon conversions. In the first solenoid, the Production Solenoid, pions and kaons are produced, together with other secondary products, by 8 GeV kinetic energy proton interactions in a tungsten target. A gradient magnetic field is specifically designed to direct low momentum particles into the Transport Solenoid, an S-shaped magnet that filters out particles with unwanted charge and momentum. Muons, produced by pion and kaon decays, finally reach the aluminum Stopping Target in the Detector Solenoid, where they eventually stop and convert. The result of the conversion process is a monochromatic electron of ~105 MeV/c momentum. The Detector Solenoid also hosts the two main detectors: a straw tube tracker and two CsI calorimeter disks, both providing measurement of event kinematics. A germanium detector and a LaBr crystal are located downstream of the Detector Solenoid to measure the X and gamma rays produced by the muon captures in the Stopping Target. A veto system of scintillators covering the Detector Solenoid and half of the Transport Solenoid is used to identify and reject cosmic rays interactions. With respect to the initial project, the Mu2e running plan has evolved to a staged configuration with 2 years at reduced intensity before the 2025 accelerator shutdown for the neutrino beam upgrade and 2 or 3 years at full intensity after that. This, together with geometry changes and a better knowledge of detector performances obtained by the first slice tests, has required a full revision of the signal over background selection that is the subject of this thesis. In order to achieve a new estimate of Mu2e sensitivity, the simulation of the data corresponding to the first 2 years of data acquisition has been performed. This includes both conversion electrons (CE) and the main sources of background: cosmics, decay-in orbits (DIO), radiative pion captures (RPC) and antiprotons. The characteristics of the signal and of the main backgrounds have been studied to define the best selection variables for CE. A special effort has been devoted to the evaluation of the antiproton background. The lack of experimental data for antiproton production cross section makes the systematic uncertainty on this background significant. A new parameterization of the cross section has been developed to fit the existing data and to provide a more reliable estimate of the systematic uncertainty by comparing the results of the old and the new model. A special effort has been devoted to the optimization of the antiprotons Monte Carlo generator. This study has also revealed that the dominant component within this background is represented by antiprotons produced in the opposite direction with respect to the Transport Solenoid entrance and then redirected to it by back-scattering processes in the Production Target. This ultimately highlights the sensitivity of the background estimate to the G4 handling of antiproton interactions in the 1 to 3 GeV/c momentum range. Finally, the final experimental sensitivity has been studied. The momentum and time selection have been optimized to obtain the 5-sigma discovery reach or, in case of no signal, the upper limit on conversion probability. The results confirm that, in the firs t two years of data taking, Mu2e will be able to improve the current experimental sensitivity for muon-to-electron conversion in an atomic field by more than 3 order of magnitudes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Radioisotope Power System Dose Estimation Tool (RPS-DET) User Manual

Radioisotope power systems (RPSs) convert decay heat from radioactive materials to electrical power. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) uses RPSs for certain orbiters, landers, rovers, and probes that cannot rely on solar or chemical power. Most of the emitted charged particles in RPS fuels are locally absorbed, and the particles’ kinetic energy is converted into thermal energy as they slow down in the surrounding materials. This heat is subsequently converted into electricity through some form of energy conversion process (e.g., thermoelectric, heat engine, thermionic). While nearly all the charged particles are stopped locally, a non-trivial portion of the emitted neutral particles (neutrons and photons) escape the fuel and are free to interact with surrounding materials. This escaping radiation field can be operationally problematic for certain instruments, materials, electronics, etc., and can cause problems during terrestrial shipping, integration, testing for personnel, instrumentation, etc. Furthermore, the fuel’s emission spectrum evolves over time as the parent isotopes decay away and daughter products accumulate. This changing fuel composition alters characteristics of the ambient radiation field over time, which is further affected by RPS orientation and the surrounding environment. Tools that can rapidly estimate the radiation characteristics of RPSs with various fuel compositions, fuel ages, various RPS orientations, and in/on different spaceflight and planetary scenarios provide researchers with an opportunity to quickly estimate the radiation implications of a given RPS scenario. The RPS dose estimation tool (RPS-DET) provides engineers, scientists and analysts who are not trained in the art of particle transport software with a solution for quickly building, simulating, and analyzing the radiation impacts of various RPS designs in relevant spaceflight and terrestrial environments.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

DEEP SPACE INDUSTRIALIZATION: Key To Sustainable Exploration, Development and Settlement of the Solar System

Recent developments related to deep space exploration and development have raised the question of whether the paradigm shift that many people have been expecting, from space exploration to space development and industrialization, is finally occurring. These recent events include Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) announcement that they have been contacted by two wealthy individuals who would like to travel around the Moon within the next two years and a recently reported story of Jeff Bezos’ proposal to the Trump Administration to offer cargo delivery services to the Lunar surface (Blue Moon) by mid 2020 as part of a public/private partnership with NASA. In addition Bob Bigelow, founder of Bigelow Aerospace, has announced the capability and desire to put a crewed space station in orbit around the Moon in this same 2020 time period. Moon Express has also recently announced that they are fully funded for their attempt to land their robotic probe on the lunar surface at the end of this year, not only to win the Google Lunar XPrize but also to jump start their lunar mining efforts. On the international front the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg has established a 200 million euro fund to invest in space mining companies with the aim of making Luxembourg the European leader in deep space commerce. To date they have made investments in two companies; Deep Space Industries and Planetary Resources both of which were established to prospect and mine near Earth asteroids. Other counties such as India, China, Japan and even Israel are eying this high frontier for deep space commerce. This paper will explore how these developments could help enable this deep space industrialization and jumpstart a thriving deep space economy. The role that NASA and the US government can and should play in this effort and the role of public/private partnerships will also be discussed. Finally, what these developments could lead to over the next 10-15 years will be analysed and the potential size of this deep space economy will be estimated.

Pittman, Robert B.↗

BioSentinel: Mission Development of a Radiation Biosensor to Gauge DNA Damage and Repair Beyond Low Earth Orbit on a 6U Nanosatellite

We are designing and developing a 6U (10 x 22 x 34 cm; 14 kg) nanosatellite as a secondary payload to fly aboard NASAs Space Launch System (SLS) Exploration Mission (EM) 1, scheduled for launch in late 2017. For the first time in over forty years, direct experimental data from biological studies beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) will be obtained during BioSentinels 12- to 18-month mission. BioSentinel will measure the damage and repair of DNA in a biological organism and allow us to compare that to information from onboard physical radiation sensors. In order to understand the relative contributions of the space environments two dominant biological perturbations, reduced gravity and ionizing radiation, results from deep space will be directly compared to data obtained in LEO (on ISS) and on Earth. These data points will be available for validation of existing biological radiation damage and repair models, and for extrapolation to humans, to assist in mitigating risks during future long-term exploration missions beyond LEO. The BioSentinel Payload occupies 4U of the spacecraft and will utilize the monocellular eukaryotic organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast) to report DNA double-strand-break (DSB) events that result from ambient space radiation. DSB repair exhibits striking conservation of repair proteins from yeast to humans. Yeast was selected because of 1) its similarity to cells in higher organisms, 2) the well-established history of strains engineered to measure DSB repair, 3) its spaceflight heritage, and 4) the wealth of available ground and flight reference data. The S. cerevisiae flight strain will include engineered genetic defects to prevent growth and division until a radiation-induced DSB activates the yeasts DNA repair mechanisms. The triggered culture growth and metabolic activity directly indicate a DSB and its successful repair. The yeast will be carried in the dry state within the 1-atm PL container in 18 separate fluidics cards with each card having 16 independent culture microwells, with integral microchannels and filters to supply nutrients and reagents, confine the yeast to the wells, and enable optical measurement. The measurement subsystem will monitor each subgroup of culture wells continuously for several weeks, optically tracking DSB-triggered cell growth and metabolism. BioSentinel will also include physical radiation sensors based on the TimePix sensor, as implemented by JSCs RadWorks group, which record individual radiation events including estimates of their linear-energy-transfer (LET) values. Radiation-dose and LET data will be compared directly to the rate of DSB-and-repair events measured by the S. cerevisiae biosentinels.

Radiation Biosensor↗

On the origin & thermal stability of Arrokoth's and Pluto's ice

In this paper we discuss in a thermodynamic, geologically empirical way the long-term nature of the stable majority ices that could be present in Kuiper Belt object (KBO) 2014 MU69 (also called Arrokoth; hereafter “MU(69)”) after its 4.6 Gyr residence in the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt (EKB) as a cold classical object. We compare the upper bounds for the gas production rate (~10^(24) molecules/s) measured by the New Horizons (NH) spacecraft flyby on 01 Jan 2019 to estimates for the outgassing flux rates from a suite of common cometary and KBO ices at the average ~ 40 K sunlit surface temperature of MU69, but do not find the upper limit very constraining except for the most volatile of species (e.g. CO, N2, CH4). More constraining is the stability versus sublimation into vacuum requirement over Myr to Gyr, and from this we find only 3 common ices that are truly refractory: HCN, CH3OH, and H2O (in order of increasing stability), while NH3 and H2CO ices are marginally stable and may be removed by any positive temperature excursions in the EKB, as produced every 10^(8)–10^(9) years by nearby supernovae and passing O/B stars. To date the NH team has reported the presence of abundant CH3OH and H2O on MU69's surface (Stern et al., 2019; Grundy et al., 2020). NH3 has been searched for, but not found. We predict that future absorption feature detections, if any are ever derived from higher signal-to-noise ratio spectra, will be due to an HCN or poly-H2CO based species. Consideration of the conditions present in the EKB region during the formation era of MU69 lead us to state that it is highly likely that it “formed in the dark”, in an optically thick mid-plane, unable to see the nascent, variable, highly luminous Young Stellar Object (YSO)/TTauri Sun, and that KBOs contain HCN and CH3OH ice phases in addition to the H2O ice phases found in their short period (SP) comet descendants. Finally, when we apply our ice thermal stability analysis to bodies/populations related to MU69, we find that methanol ice is likely ubiquitous in the outer solar system; that if Pluto isn't a fully differentiated body, then it must have gained its hypervolatile ices from proto-planetary disk (PPD) sources in the first few Myr of the solar system's existence; and that hypervolatile rich, highly primordial comet C/2016 R2 was placed onto an Oort Cloud orbit on a similar few Myr timescale.

Pluto↗

Design and Application of the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool

Conducting human exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will present unique challenges in the areas of supportability and maintainability. The durations of proposed missions can be relatively long and re-supply of logistics, including maintenance and repair items, will be limited or non-existent. In addition, mass and volume constraints in the transportation system will limit the total amount of logistics that can be flown along with the crew. These constraints will require that new strategies be developed with regards to how spacecraft systems are designed and maintained. NASA is currently developing Design Reference Missions (DRMs) as an initial step in defining future human missions. These DRMs establish destinations and concepts of operation for future missions, and begin to define technology and capability requirements. Because of the unique supportability challenges, historical supportability data and models are not directly applicable for establishing requirements for beyond LEO missions. However, supportability requirements could have a major impact on the development of the DRMs. The mass, volume, and crew resources required to support the mission could all be first order drivers in the design of missions, elements, and operations. Therefore, there is a need for enhanced analysis capabilities to more accurately establish mass, volume, and time requirements for supporting beyond LEO missions. Additionally, as new technologies and operations are proposed to reduce these requirements, it is necessary to have accurate tools to evaluate the efficacy of those approaches. In order to improve the analysis of supportability requirements for beyond LEO missions, the Space Missions Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center is developing the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT). This tool is a probabilistic simulator that evaluates the need for repair and maintenance activities during space missions and the logistics and crew requirements to support those activities. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the tool simulates potential failures in defined systems, based on established component reliabilities, and then evaluates the capability of the crew to repair those failures given a defined store of spares and maintenance items. Statistical analysis of Monte Carlo runs provides probabilistic estimates of overall mission safety and reliability. This paper will describe the operation of the EMAT, including historical data sources used to populate the model, simulation processes, and outputs. Analysis results are provided for a candidate exploration system, including baseline estimates of required sparing mass and volume. Sensitivity analysis regarding the effectiveness of proposed strategies to reduce mass and volume requirements and improve mission reliability is included in these results.

Stromgren, Chel↗

Venus lower thermosphere studies

Studies undertaken in this project have sought to understand lower thermospheric structure and dynamics (less than or equal to 145 km), particularly the processes responsible. This is a region just below the reach of in-situ instruments onboard PVO (Pioneer Venus Orbiter) during the first few diurnal cycles. PVO remote airglow observations (nitric oxide, O2, visible, O 1304A) have been coupled with ground-based observations (CO densities, winds, temperatures, O2 IR nightglow) to address the behavior of lower thermospheric winds and chemistry over 95 to 150 km. This interpretation of PVO and related data is accomplished by using the NCAR Venus thermospheric general circulation model (VTGCM) (Bougher et al., 1988; 1990). This model has been modified over the last two years to improve its ability to calculate O, CO, and O2 densities, temperatures, nightglow, and subsolar-to-antisolar and zonal winds over 95 to 150 km (Bougher and Borucki, 1992). Our VTGCM studies show that: (1) O2 visible and IR nightglow distributions can be used to trace lower thermosphere / upper mesosphere winds over 100-130 km. Typically, weak zonal winds (less than or equal to 25 m/sec) and nightglow maximum patches near 0100 LT prevail. Occasionally, strong zonal winds (30-60 m/sec) and airglow patches peaking near 0300 LT characterize the Venus lower thermosphere. (2) It is clear that the dynamics of the Venus 90-130 km region is highly variable on time scales as short as an hour. This is most likely due to the time variable nature of upward propagating gravity waves, which grow in amplitude and eventually break. The resulting turbulence gives rise to local time variable eddy diffusion and momentum drag, both of which strongly impact global density and nightglow distributions. (3) The oxygen chemistry (O, O2, etc.) over 90-120 km is strongly dependent on HO(x) and CLO(x) tracer species that must be properly included in any coupled chemical dynamical model. (4) The density profiles of light species (O, CO, N, He) are strongly affected by large-scale transport by the winds. Strong eddy diffusion is not a suitable model parameterization for approximating these light species, especially for extrapolation into the region below 140 km where PVO in-situ data is lacking. Instead, the fully coupled chemical dynamical VTGCM model should be used to improve estimates of densities within the VTS3 empirical model (Hedin et al., 1983) below 140 km.

Bougher, Stephen W.↗

Human Spaceflight Applications of Novel Miniature X-Ray Technologies

INTRODUCTION: Radiography (XR) has long been a cornerstone of terrestrial medical imaging, though it has not yet been used in the spaceflight environment. Medical systems for human spaceflight missions are constrained by mass, volume, and power, and until recently, XR systems have been considered too large and power-consuming for spaceflight diagnostic and therapeutic applications. However, the rise of commercial spaceflight and NASA’s refocused efforts on returning crews to the Moon for long-duration missions have introduced a higher degree of medical risk to human spaceflight and require a re-evaluation when optimizing medical system design. Over the last decade, XR devices have miniaturized while maintaining good diagnostic and therapeutic sensitivity and specificity, making new in-flight medical and non-medical XR applications a possibility. Initial research identified several medical conditions where miniature XR would be beneficial for the diagnosis and/or management of medical conditions arising in space, though a more in-depth analysis is required to identify whether XR may add value to the management of such conditions. With this presentation, we aim to introduce the potential utility of miniature XR, review prior work highlighting where XR may be beneficial, and evaluate how miniature XR may reduce medical risk in human spaceflight missions. METHODS: IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a risk assessment tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design by quantitatively estimating mission medical risk. IMPACT v1.0 includes a novel evidence library baselined to exploration environments, an expanded list of 119 medical conditions, medical capabilities and resources critical for management of these medical conditions, and the ability for rapid and iterative analysis in the setting of modifiable design reference missions (DRMs). Our first analysis identified which of the 119 medical conditions XR had diagnostic or therapeutic utility for. Subject matter experts (SMEs) recorded which XR views would be performed under ideal terrestrial circumstances for diagnosis/management of each condition, as well as which views are pragmatic for spaceflight limitations. A second analysis utilized IMPACT to identify significant conditions that contribute greatest to medical risk during a notional long-duration Lunar orbit and Lunar surface DRM. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), need for return to definitive care (RTDC; medical evacuation), and an estimate of crew task time affected (TTA). Using a standardized semi-quantitative scoring methodology, a deeper evaluation of each of the most significant medical conditions was performed. Data from both of these separate analyses were used to hypothesize what ideal and pragmatic XR studies may impact clinical management of the most significant conditions predicted to lead to medical risk. RESULTS: Approximately 1/3 of the IMPACT conditions were identified as being more effectively or comprehensively assessed or treated with the addition of miniature XR technology. The resulting conditions benefitting diagnostically and therapeutically from XR are revealed, as well as the ideal and pragmatic XR views and medical procedures benefitting from XR. The conditions of clinical significance and those most contributing to risk are also displayed. Among the conditions that contribute greatest to LOCL, four conditions for which XR may improve the diagnosis and management of include: decompression sickness, traumatic shock, dental abscess, and respiratory failure. Among conditions that contributed to RTDC, the evaluation and management of wrist fracture is likely improved by XR. For conditions leading to crew TTA, evaluation and management of EVA shoulder injuries, upper and lower extremity strains, back strains, and EVA hand injuries are likely improved by XR. DISCUSSION: Miniature XR in spaceflight has the potential to improve the evaluation and management of a substantial portion of conditions that most contribute to medical risk. This presentation is an introduction to the possibilities miniature XR provides for future human spaceflight missions and subsequent presenters will expand on potential applications in more detail. LEARNING OBJECTIVES: 1) Understand the previous limitations of using radiography in the management of spaceflight medical conditions; 2) Evaluate the findings from the IMPACT tool analysis, which allows quantification of the benefit miniature XR could provide for managing high-risk medical conditions in long-duration lunar orbit and surface missions, focusing on improvements in crew health outcomes; 3) Analyze case studies where miniature XR technology could reduce the medical risks associated with spaceflight missions, specifically in diagnosing and managing conditions such as decompression sickness, traumatic shock, and EVA-related injuries.

A Anderson↗

The New 20-Year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Merged Satellite and Rainguage Monthly Analysis

A new 20-year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis has been completed as part of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). This Version 2 of the community generated data set is a result of combining the procedures and data sets as described. The global, monthly, 2.5x 2.5 degree latitude-longitude product utilizes precipitation estimates from low-orbit microwave sensors (SSM/1) and geosynchronous IR sensors and raingauge information over land. The low-orbit microwave estimates are used to adjust or correct the geosynchronous IR estimates, thereby maximizing the utility of the more physically-based microwave estimates and the finer time sampling of the geosynchronous observations. Information from raingauges is blended into the analyses over land. In the 1986-present period TOVS-based precipitation estimates are adjusted to GPCP fields and used in polar regions to produce globally-complete results. The extension back to 1979 utilizes the procedures of Xie and Arkin and their OLR Precipitation Index (OPI). The 20-year climatology of the Version 2 GPCP analysis indicates the expected features of a very strong Pacific Ocean ITCZ and SPCZ with maximum 20-year means approaching 10 mm/day. A similar strength maximum over land is evident over Borneo. Weaker maxima in the tropics occur in the Atlantic ITCZ and over South America and Africa. In mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic maxima have values of approximately 7 mm/day, while in the Southern Hemisphere the mid-latitude maxima are located southeast of Africa, in mid-Pacific as an extension of the SPCZ and southeast of South America. In terms of global totals the GPCP analysis shows 2.7 mm/day (3.0 mm/day over ocean; 2.1 mm/day over land), similar to the Jaeger climatology, but not other climatologies. Zonal averages peak at 6 mm/day at 7*N with mid-latitude peaks of about 3 mm/day at 40-45* latitude. Poleward of 45* the GPCP analysis shows larger zonally-averaged values than most previous satellite-based estimates, although the values are similar to tl,ie Jaeger climatology. Over both ocean areas and at high latitudes the analysis requires additional validation and comparison with special, independent data sets from field experiments and from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) to confirm the absolute magnitude and variations of precipitation seen in the analysis. Interannual and other variations of the global fields will be shown focusing on the recent ('97-'99) ENSO event compared with previous events, including teleconnections at mid and high latitudes. An ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) calculated using the new data set will be described and related to the evolution of the ENSO events during the 20-year period.

Adler, Robert↗

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Orbit determination↗

An Investigation of Low Earth Orbit Internal Charging

Low Earth orbit is usually considered a relatively benign environment for internal charging threats due to the low flux of penetrating electrons with energies of a few MeV that are encountered over an orbit. There are configurations, however, where insulators and ungrounded conductors used on the outside of a spacecraft hull may charge when exposed to much lower energy electrons of some 100's keV in a process that is better characterized as internal charging than surface charging. For example, the minimal radiation shielding afforded by thin thermal control materials such as metalized polymer sheets (e.g., aluminized Kapton or Mylar) and multilayer insulation may allow electrons of 100's of keV to charge underlying materials. Yet these same thermal control materials protect the underlying insulators and ungrounded conductors from surface charging currents due to electrons and ions at energies less than a few keV as well as suppress the photoemission, secondary electron, and backscattered electron processes associated with surface charging. We investigate the conditions required for this low Earth orbit "internal charging" to occur and evaluate the environments for which the process may be a threat to spacecraft. First, we describe a simple one-dimensional internal charging model that is used to compute the charge accumulation on materials under thin shielding. Only the electron flux that penetrates exposed surface shielding material is considered and we treat the charge balance in underlying insulation as a parallel plate capacitor accumulating charge from the penetrating electron flux and losing charge due to conduction to a ground plane. Charge dissipation due to conduction can be neglected to consider the effects of charging an ungrounded conductor. In both cases, the potential and electric field is computed as a function of time. An additional charge loss process is introduced due to an electrostatic discharge current when the electric field reaches a prescribed breakdown strength. For simplicity, the amount of charge lost in the discharge is treated as a random percentage of the total charge between a set maximum and minimum amount so a user can consider partial discharges of insulating materials (small loss of charge) or arcing from a conductor (large loss of charge). We apply the model to electron flux measurements from the NOAA-19 spacecraft to demonstrate that charging can reach levels where electrostatic discharges occur and estimate the magnitude of the discharge.

NeergaardParker, Linda↗

TOI 540 b: A Planet Smaller than Earth Orbiting a Nearby Rapidly Rotating Low-mass Star

We present the discovery of TOI 540 b, a hot planet slightly smaller than Earth orbiting the low-mass star 2MASS J05051443-4756154. The planet has an orbital period of P = 1.239149 days (±170 ms) and a radius of r=0.903±0.052R{sub ⊕}, and is likely terrestrial based on the observed mass–radius distribution of small exoplanets at similar insolations. The star is 14.008 pc away and we estimate its mass and radius to be M=0.159±0.014 M{sub ⊙} and R=0.1895±0.0079R{sub ⊙}, respectively. The star is distinctive in its very short rotational period of P{sub rot}=17.4264±0.0094 hr and correspondingly small Rossby number of 0.007 as well as its high X-ray-to-bolometric luminosity ratio of L{sub X}/L{sub bol}=0.0028 based on a serendipitous XMM-Newton detection during a slew operation. This is consistent with the X-ray emission being observed at a maximum value of L{sub X}/L{sub bol}≃10{sup −3} as predicted for the most rapidly rotating M dwarfs. TOI 540 b may be an alluring target to study atmospheric erosion due to the strong stellar X-ray emission. It is also among the most accessible targets for transmission and emission spectroscopy and eclipse photometry with the James Webb Space Telescope, and may permit Doppler tomography with high-resolution spectroscopy during transit. This discovery is based on precise photometric data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite and ground-based follow-up observations by the MEarth team.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_C Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

The SMAP satellite was successfully launched January 31st 2015, and began acquiring Earth observation data following in-orbit sensor calibration. Global data products derived from the SMAP L-band microwave measurements include Level 1 calibrated and geolocated radiometric brightness temperatures, Level 23 surface soil moisture and freezethaw geophysical retrievals mapped to a fixed Earth grid, and model enhanced Level 4 data products for surface to root zone soil moisture and terrestrial carbon (CO2) fluxes. The post-launch SMAP mission CalVal Phase had two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the L1 science requirements. This report provides analysis and assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product pertaining to the validated release. The L4_C validated product release effectively replaces an earlier L4_C beta-product release (Kimball et al. 2015). The validated release described in this report incorporates a longer data record and benefits from algorithm and CalVal refinements acquired during the SMAP post-launch CalVal intensive period. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by SMAP soil moisture inputs along with optical remote sensing (e.g. MODIS) vegetation indices and other ancillary biophysical data to estimate global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and component carbon fluxes for vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). Other L4_C product elements include surface (10 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture and landscape freeze/thaw (FT) controls on GPP and respiration (Kimball et al. 2012). The L4_C product encapsulates SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying FT and soil moisture constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity in northern ecosystems. There are no L1 science requirements for the L4_C product; however self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications; however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased accuracy (ubRMSE) for NEE of 1.6 g C/sq m/d or 30 g C/sq m/yr, emphasizing northern (45N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this is similar to the estimated accuracy level of in situ tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008).

Cal/Val↗

Radar Observations of Convective Systems from a High-Altitude Aircraft

Reflectivity data collected by the precipitation radar on board the tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, orbiting at 350 km altitude, are compared to reflectivity data collected nearly simultaneously by a doppler radar aboard the NASA ER-2 flying at 19-20 km altitude, i.e. above even the deepest convection. The TRMM precipitation radar is a scanning device with a ground swath width of 215 km, and has a resolution of about a4.4 km in the horizontal and 250 m in the vertical (125 m in the core swath 48 km wide). The TRMM radar has a wavelength of 217 cm (13.8 GHz) and the Nadir mirror echo below the surface is used to correct reflectivity for loss by attenuation. The ER-2 Doppler radar (EDOP) has two antennas, one pointing to the nadir, 34 degrees forward. The forward pointing beam receives both the normal and the cross-polarized echos, so the linear polarization ratio field can be monitored. EDOP has a wavelength of 3.12 cm (9.6 GHz), a vertical resolution of 37.5 m and a horizontal along-track resolution of about 100 m. The 2-D along track airflow field can be synthesized from the radial velocities of both beams, if a reflectivity-based hydrometer fall speed relation can be assumed. It is primarily the superb vertical resolution that distinguishes EDOP from other ground-based or airborne radars. Two experiments were conducted during 1998 into validate TRMM reflectivity data over convection and convectively-generated stratiform precipitation regions. The Teflun-A (TEXAS-Florida Underflight) experiment, was conducted in April and May and focused on mesoscale convective systems mainly in southeast Texas. TEFLUN-B was conducted in August-September in central Florida, in coordination with CAMEX-3 (Convection and Moisture Experiment). The latter was focused on hurricanes, especially during landfall, whereas TEFLUN-B concentrated on central; Florida convection, which is largely driven and organized by surface heating and ensuing sea breeze circulations. Both TEFLUN-A and B were amply supported by surface data, in particular a dense raingauge network, a polarization radar, wind profilers, a mobile radiosonde system, a cloud physics aircraft penetrating the overflown storms, and a network of 10 cm Doppler radars(WSR-88D). This presentation will show some preliminary comparisons between TRMM, EDOP, and WSR-88D reflectivity fields in the case of an MCS, a hurricane, and less organized convection in central Florida. A validation of TRMM reflectivity is important, because TRMM's primary objective is to estimate the rainfall climatology with 35 degrees of the equator. Rainfall is estimated from the radar reflectivity, as well from TRMM's Microwave Imager, which measures at 10.7, 19.4, 21.3, 37, and 85.5 GHz over a broader swath (78 km). While the experiments lasted about three months the cumulative period of near simultaneous observations of storms by ground-based, airborne and space borne radars is only about an hour long. Therefore the comparison is case-study-based, not climatological. We will highlight fundamental differences in the typical reflectivity profiles in stratiform regions of MCS's, Florida convection and hurricanes and will explain why Z-R relationships based on ground-based radar data for convective systems over land should be different from those for hurricanes. These catastrophically intense rainfall from hurricane Georges in Hispaniola and from Mitch in Honduras highlights the importance of accurate Z-R relationships, It will be shown that a Z-R relationship that uses the entire reflectivity profile (rather than just a 1 level) works much better in a variety of cases, making an adjustment of the constants for different precipitation system categories redundant.

Heymsfield, G.↗

Trans-Neptunian Objects Found in the First Four Years of the Dark Energy Survey

In this paper, we present a catalog of 316 trans-Neptunian bodies (TNOs) detected from the first four seasons ("Y4" data) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The survey covers a contiguous 5000 deg 2 of the southern sky in the grizY optical/NIR filter set, with a typical TNO in this part of the sky being targeted by 25–30 Y4 exposures. This paper focuses on the methods used to detect these objects from the ≈60,000 Y4 exposures, a process made challenging by the absence of the few-hour repeat observations employed by TNO-optimized surveys. Newly developed techniques include: transient/moving object detection by comparison of single-epoch catalogs to catalogs of "stacked" images; quantified astrometric error from atmospheric turbulence; new software for detecting TNO linkages in a temporally sparse transient catalog, and for estimating the rate of spurious linkages; use of faint stars to determine the detection efficiency versus magnitude in all exposures. Final validation of the reality of linked orbits uses a new "sub-threshold confirmation" test, wherein we demand the object be detectable in a stack of the exposures in which the orbit indicates an object should be present, but was not individually detected. This catalog contains all validated TNOs which were detected on ≥6 unique nights in the Y4 data, and is complete to r 23.3 mag with virtually no dependence on orbital properties for bound TNOs at distance 30 au < d < 2500 au. The catalog includes 245 discoveries by DES, 139 not previously published. The final DES TNO catalog is expected to yield >0.3 mag more depth, and arcs of >4 yr for nearly all detections.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗