Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Reliability Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 973 records · Page 54

Large balancing areas and dispersed renewable investment enhance grid flexibility in a renewable-dominant power system in China

Renewable energy is poised to play a major role in achieving China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060; however, reliability and flexibility is a big concern of a renewable-dominant power system. Various strategies of enhancing flexibility are under discussion to ensure the reliability of such a system, but no detailed quantitative analysis has been reported yet in China. We combine the advantages of a capacity expansion model, SWITCH-China, with a production simulation model, PLEXOS, and analyze flexibility options under different scenarios of a renewable-dominant power system in China. We find that a larger balancing area offers direct flexibility benefits. Regional balancing could reduce the renewable curtailment rate by 5-7%, compared with a provincial balancing strategy. National balancing could further reduce the power cost by about 16%. However, retrofitting coal power plants for flexible operation would only improve the system flexibility marginally.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A phenology- and trend-based approach for accurate mapping of sea-level driven coastal forest retreat

The rapid replacement of upland forest by encroaching marshland is a striking manifestation of global sea-level rise (SLR). Timely and high-resolution information on the location and extent of transition forest (the ecotone between upland forest and marsh where tree mortality due to seawater intrusion begins) is fundamental to understanding the processes and patterns of SLR-driven landscape reorganization. Despite its significance, accurate characterization of salt-impacted transition forest remains challenging due to the complexity of coastal environments, scarcity of ground-truth data, and the lack of effective mapping algorithms. Here we use the full archive of Landsat images between 1984 and 2021 to investigate the spectral, temporal, and phenological characteristics of transition forest, and develop a robust framework for monitoring coastal vegetation shifts in the mid-Atlantic U.S., a global SLR hotspot. Here, we found that transition forest exhibits strong negative NDVI trends and a deviation of land surface phenology from marsh and upland forest that distinguishes itself from surrounding vegetation. By integrating temporal trends and land surface phenology, our results demonstrate superior discrimination between marsh and coastal forests to existing map products (e.g. NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database) that allows a reliable identification of the coastal treeline. We applied the approach to map regional land cover in 1985, 2000 and 2020 (overall classification accuracy >92%) and found that the area of coastal forest decreased by 22.0% from 1985 to 2020, the majority of which transitioned to marshland (92.3%, 5.3 × 10 3 ha). Based upon fine-scale patterns of coastal transgression, we created a practical workflow for spatially explicit quantification of forest retreat rates. Concurrent with rising sea level, coastal forests migrated upslope from 0.63 (± 0.27) m above sea level in 1985 to 0.78 (± 0.32) m above sea level in 2020, and horizontal forest retreat rates accelerated from 3.1 (range of 0–36) m yr -1 during 1985–2000 to 4.7 (0–55) m yr -1 during 2001–2020. As SLR continues to accelerate, our study may serve as a scalable solution for consistent tracking of coastal landscape evolution that is urgently needed for sustainable forest and wetland management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating ultrafine aerosol turbulent fluxes during atmospheric new particle formation events

New particle formation (NPF) is an important source of atmospheric aerosols, yet quantitatively predicting its occurrence remains challenging, partly because ground-based measurements cannot capture NPF accurately if they occur in the upper atmosphere. While observations have confirmed the presence of new particles near the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL), their origins and the direction of their vertical transport have remained ambiguous. Here, we propose and validate an analytical framework using airborne eddy-covariance (EC) and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to directly quantify the vertical flux of newly formed particles and determine its dominant vertical transportation direction. Analyzing data from a dedicated airborne campaign over the Southern Great Plains, we observed a persistent and strong downward particle flux during NPF events, with a mean value of 133.8 cm?3 m s?¹ downward flux in the entrainment zone, whereas fluxes on non-NPF days were negligible. Our spectral analysis further confirms that these directional fluxes can be reliably captured using standard 1 Hz aerosol instrumentation. These findings suggest that new particle formation, driven by the entrainment of air from the overlying residual/stable layer during PBL growth, is a significant and potentially understudied source of boundary layer aerosols. The framework presented here provides a methodology to correctly attribute NPF events to specific altitudes, thereby improving the mechanistic understanding required for accurate atmospheric models.

Zhang, Ruoyu↗

KBKit: A Python Toolkit for Kirkwood–Buff Theory from Molecular Dynamics

Thermodynamic properties of liquid mixtures govern processes that range from drug delivery to energy storage, yet extracting these properties from molecular simulations remains challenging. Kirkwood–Buff (KB) theory offers a rigorous route by linking microscopic pair distribution functions to macroscopic free energies, but practical use of the theory has been hindered by two obstacles: (i) the long simulations needed to obtain well-converged Kirkwood-Buff integrals (KBIs) and (ii) the specialized corrections required to translate finite-size data to the thermodynamic limit. $\texttt{KBKit}$ is an open-source Python package that removes these barriers. It automatically computes KBIs and derived thermodynamic quantities from GROMACS input files, applies state-of-the-art finite-size corrections, and provides built-in diagnostic tools to quantify statistical uncertainty. Written with modern software-engineering practices—continuous integration, extensive unit testing, and thorough documentation—$\texttt{KBKit}$ is both reliable and easy to extend. By condensing complex KBI analysis into a few intuitive commands, $\texttt{KBKit}$ enables researchers to incorporate KB theory into routine simulation workflows and accelerate the discovery of solution-phase thermodynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analytical Identification Method of Generalized Short‐Circuit Ratio Using Phasor Measurement Units

This paper introduces a novel analytical approach for the identification of the admittance matrix and the generalized short-circuit ratio (gSCR) in power systems integrated with renewable energy sources. The proposed method leverages voltage and current measurements from phasor measurement units (PMUs) to construct a least squares objective function, which is then solved using matrix calculus and partial derivatives. Unlike conventional optimization algorithms, this approach provides an analytical solution that substantially reduces data requirements, enabling the efficient and accurate identification of the gSCR with smaller datasets. Additionally, its fixed computational complexity allows for real-time updates as new data are collected, ensuring continuous refinement of the system of equations and enabling rapid, precise gSCR calculations. The method also exhibits strong robustness against measurement noise, making it well-suited for practical applications in dynamic power systems. The combination of reduced data requirements, real-time adaptability, noise robustness and fixed computational load establishes this method as a highly efficient and reliable tool for real-time power system stability analysis. Case studies on an EPRI 36-bus system demonstrate the method's effectiveness, highlighting its accuracy in closely matching true gSCR values, even under diverse disturbances and noisy conditions.

Han, Zelei [Hohai University, Nanjing (China)] (OR↗

Self-assembled nanoparticle aggregates: Organizing disorder for high performance surface-enhanced spectroscopy

The coherent oscillations of the surface electron gas, known as surface plasmons, in metal nanostructures can give rise to the localization of intense electromagnetic fields at the metal-dielectric interface. These strong fields are exploited in surface enhanced spectroscopies, such as Surface Enhanced Raman Scattering (SERS), for the detection and characterization of molecules at very low concentration. Still, the implementation of SERS-based biosensors requires a high level of reproducibility, combined with cheap and simple fabrication methods. For this purpose, SERS substrates based on self-assembled aggregates of commercial metallic nanoparticles (Nps) can meet all the above requests. Following this line, we report on a combined micro-Raman and Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) analysis of the SERS efficiency of micrometric silver Np aggregates (enhancement factors up to 10{sup 9}) obtained by self-assembly. Despite the intrinsic disordered nature of these Np clusters, we were able to sort out some general rules relating the specific aggregate morphology to its plasmonic response. We found strong evidences of cooperative effects among the NPs within the cluster and namely a clear dependence of the SERS-efficiency on both the cluster area (basically linear) and the number of stacked NPs layers. A cooperative action among the superimposed layers has been proved also by electromagnetic simulations performed on simplified nanostructures consisting of stacking planes of ordered Nps. Being clear the potentialities of these disordered self-assembled clusters, in terms of both easy fabrication and signal enhancement, we developed a specific nanofabrication protocol, based on electron beam lithography and molecular functionalization, that allowed for a fine control of the Np assemblies into designed shapes fixing their area and height. In particular, we fabricated 2D ordered arrays of disordered clusters choosing gold Nps owing to their high stability. AFM measurements confirmed the regularity in spacing and size (i.e. area and layer number) of the aggregates. Preliminary SERS measurements confirm the high signal enhancement and demonstrate a quite good reproducibility over large number of aggregates within 100×100 μm{sup 2} 2D super-structure. The availability of such a multisensor could allow a careful statistical analysis of the SERS response, thus leading to a reliable quantitative estimate of the presence of relevant molecular species even at ultra-low concentration.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Revealing the nature of electron correlation in transition metal complexes with symmetry breaking and chemical intuition

Here, in this work, we provide a nuanced view of electron correlation in the context of transition metal complexes, reconciling computational characterization via spin and spatial symmetry breaking in single-reference methods with qualitative concepts from ligand-field and molecular orbital theories. These insights provide the tools to reliably diagnose the multi-reference character, and our analysis reveals that while strong (i.e., static) correlation can be found in linear molecules (e.g., diatomics) and weakly bound and antiferromagnetically coupled (monometal-noninnocent ligand or multi-metal) complexes, it is rarely found in the ground-states of mono-transition-metal complexes. This leads to a picture of static correlation that is no more complex for transition metals than it is, e.g., for organic biradicaloids. In contrast, the ability of organometallic species to form more complex interactions, involving both ligand-to-metal σ-donation and metal-to-ligand π-backdonation, places a larger burden on a theory's treatment of dynamic correlation. We hypothesize that chemical bonds in which inter-electron pair correlation is non-negligible cannot be adequately described by theories using MP2 correlation energies and indeed find large errors vs experiment for carbonyl-dissociation energies from double-hybrid density functionals. A theory's description of dynamic correlation (and to a less important extent, delocalization error), which affects relative spin-state energetics and thus spin symmetry breaking, is found to govern the efficacy of its use to diagnose static correlation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Automated Bayesian high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density from emission spectroscopy

Here, this paper introduces a novel approach for automated high-throughput estimation of plasma temperature and density using atomic emission spectroscopy, integrating Bayesian inference with sophisticated physical models. We provide an in-depth examination of Bayesian methods applied to the complexities of plasma diagnostics, supported by a robust framework of physical and measurement models. Our methodology is demonstrated using experimental observations in the field of magneto-inertial fusion, focusing on individual and sequential shot analyses of the Plasma Liner Experiment at LANL. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of plasma parameter estimation and in using the analysis to reveal the deep hidden structure in the data. This study not only offers a new perspective of plasma analysis but also paves the way for further research and applications in nuclear instrumentation and related domains.

Bayesian inference↗

EVIDENCE FOR DCO{sup +} AS A PROBE OF IONIZATION IN THE WARM DISK SURFACE

In this Letter, we model the chemistry of DCO{sup +} in protoplanetary disks. We find that the overall distribution of the DCO{sup +} abundance is qualitatively similar to that of CO but is dominated by a thin layer located at the inner disk surface. To understand its distribution, we investigate the different key gas-phase deuteration pathways that can lead to the formation of DCO{sup +}. Our analysis shows that the recent update in the exothermicity of the reaction involving CH{sub 2}D{sup +} as a parent molecule of DCO{sup +} favors deuterium fractionation in warmer conditions. As a result, the formation of DCO{sup +} is enhanced in the inner warm surface layers of the disk where X-ray ionization occurs. Our analysis points out that DCO{sup +} is not a reliable tracer of the CO snow line as previously suggested. We thus predict that DCO{sup +} is a tracer of active deuterium and, in particular, X-ray ionization of the inner disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Nontrivial critical behavior at magnetic transitions: A case study of Sm 7 ⁢Pd 3

We present a comprehensive analysis of the critical behavior of Sm 7 ⁢Pd 3 in the vicinity of its second-order magnetoelastic transition at 𝑇 c =173 K. The critical exponents (CEs) 𝛽 and 𝛾, determined using both the standard convergence procedure and the average normalized slope (ANS) method, diverge at 𝑇 c –-a characteristic typically associated with first-order transitions. Notably, none of the established universality classes satisfactorily describe the critical behavior of Sm 7 ⁢Pd 3 , and we discuss the possible origins of this deviation in the context of the strong spin-lattice coupling intrinsic to the sample. We emphasize the importance of accurately selecting the critical temperature and magnetic field ranges to ensure robust critical behavior analysis, and propose a quantitative approach to assess the reliability of the extracted CEs. Additionally, we demonstrate that in the ANS method, the critical exponents 𝛽 and 𝛾 should be calculated separately using data for 𝑇 ⩽ 𝑇 c and 𝑇 ⩾ 𝑇 c , respectively. In conclusion, our findings underscore the need for a revised theoretical framework to accurately describe second-order magnetoelastic transitions.

Ferrimagnets↗

Crude Glycerol as Cost-Effective Fuel for Combined Heat and Power to Replace Fossil Fuels (Final Technical Report)

The primary objectives of this work can be summed into two major categories. Firstly, the fundamentals of the combustion of glycerol (in both a refined and unrefined form) were to be investigated, with emphasis of the development of a system capable of reliably and repeatedly combusting glycerol as well as an analysis of the emissions produced during glycerol combustion. Focus was placed on quantifying common emissions in comparison to more traditional fuels and this work showed that the burner developed was able to completely combust glycerol within a relatively wide range of operating conditions. Additionally, focus was placed on examining specific emissions in more detail, namely interesting NOx emissions observed in initial trials, acrolein and other volatile organic emissions, and particulate and ash emissions. This work showed that the combustion of crude glycerol could result in significantly reduced NOx emissions as a function of the high fuel bound oxygen content within the glycerol fuel. It also showed that when burned properly, the combustion of crude glycerol did not result in excessive emissions of acrolein or any other VOC compared to the combustion from more traditional fuels. Lastly however, this work has shown that in any practical application in which glycerol is being burned, it will be necessary to explore ash mitigation techniques due to the very high particulate matter concentrations produced during glycerol combustion. These emissions are comparable to unfiltered coal combustion and are directly tied to the biodiesel production method. The second focus of this work was directed to developing a commercialization strategy for the use of glycerol as a fuel replacement. This strategy has identified a 30 month plan for the scaling up of the laboratory scale burner into a pre-pilot scale system. Additionally, financing options were explored and an assessment was made of the economics of replacing a traditional fuel (namely natural gas) with crude glycerol from biodiesel production. This analysis showed that the cost of replacing natural gas with crude glycerol requires a strong function of the market price per unit of energy for the traditional fuel. However, the economics can be improved through the inclusion of a federal tax credit for the use of a renewable fuel. The conclusion of this analysis also shows that the ideal customer for energy replacement via crude glycerol is biodiesel producers who are located in remote regions, where the cost of energy is higher and the cost of crude glycerol is lowest. Lastly, the commercialization strategy analyzed competing technologies, namely traditional natural gas and electric heaters, as well as competing glycerol burners, and concludes with a discussion of the requirements for a pilot demonstration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Addendum to the Building America House Simulation Protocols

As Building America (BA) has grown to include a large and diverse cross-section of the home building and retrofit industries, it has become more important to develop accurate, consistent analysis techniques to measure progress towards the program's goals. The House Simulation Protocols (HSP) provides guidance to program partners and managers so that energy savings for new construction and retrofit projects can be compared alongside each other. The HSP provides the program with analysis methods that are proven to be effective and reliable in investigating the energy use of advanced energy systems and of entire houses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2014 Building America House Simulation Protocols

As BA has grown to include a large and diverse cross-section of the home building and retrofit industries, it has become more important to develop accurate, consistent analysis techniques to measure progress towards the program's goals. The House Simulation Protocol (HSP) document provides guidance to program partners and managers so they can compare energy savings for new construction and retrofit projects. The HSP provides the program with analysis methods that are proven to be effective and reliable in investigating the energy use of advanced energy systems and of entire houses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Addendum to the Building America House Simulation Protocols

As DOE's Building America program has grown to include a large and diverse cross-section of the home building and retrofit industries, it has become more important to develop accurate, consistent analysis techniques to measure progress towards the program’s goals. The House Simulation Protocols (HSP) provide guidance to program partners and managers so that energy savings for new construction and retrofit projects can be compared alongside each other. The HSP provides the program with analysis methods that are proven to be effective and reliable in investigating the energy use of advanced energy systems and of entire houses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers

This report presents the development of tools and methods for evaluating the reliability and performance of ceramic materials in high temperature solar receivers. As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat requirements, current high temperature metallic materials face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. This report explores advanced ceramics as a promising alternative, given their superior high temperature strength and lower thermal expansion, compared to metals. To address the need for effective ceramic receiver design tools, this report integrates statistical failure models of ceramics into the existing srlife tool: an open-source software package designed to estimate the life of high temperature CSP components. These failure models account for the inherent variability and flaw distribution in ceramics, as well as the impact of subcritical crack growth under high temperature cyclic loads. The report also presents experimental data collected for a commercially available ceramic material, SiC, and details the process of estimating reliability model parameters from these data. A comparative design analysis is then performed between ceramic (SiC) and metallic (current nickel-based superalloys A740H and A282) receiver. This comparison demonstrates that SiC receivers can achieve service life exceeding 30 years under high incident heat flux conditions, compared to just a few years for metallic receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

RELICS: Strong Lensing Analysis of MACS J0417.5–1154 and Predictions for Observing the Magnified High-redshift Universe with JWST

Strong gravitational lensing by clusters of galaxies probes the mass distribution at the core of each cluster and magnifies the universe behind it. MACS J0417.5–1154 at z = 0.443 is one of the most massive clusters known based on weak lensing, X-ray, and Sunyaev–Zel'dovich analyses. In this work we compute a strong lens model of MACS J0417 based on Hubble Space Telescope imaging observations collected, in part, by the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS), and recently reported spectroscopic redshifts from the MUSE instrument on the Very Large Telescope (VLT). We measure an Einstein radius of ${\theta }_{E}\simeq 36^{\prime\prime} $ at z = 9 and a mass projected within 200 kpc of ${M}_{(200\mathrm{kpc})}={1.78}_{-0.03}^{+0.01}\times {10}^{14}$ M ${}_{\odot }$. Using this model, we measure a ratio between the mass attributed to cluster-member galaxy halos and the main cluster halo of order 1:100. We assess the probability to detect magnified high-redshift galaxies in the field of this cluster, both for comparison with RELICS HST results and as a prediction for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Guaranteed Time Observations upcoming for this cluster. Our lensing analysis suggests that this cluster has similar lensing strength to other clusters in the RELICS program. Our lensing analysis predicts a detection of at least a few z ~ 6–8 galaxies behind this cluster, at odds with a recent analysis that yielded no such candidates in this field. Reliable strong lensing models are important for accurately predicting the intrinsic properties of lensed galaxies. As part of the RELICS program, our strong lensing model produced with the Lenstool parametric method is publicly available through the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Element Formation in Radiation-hydrodynamics Simulations of Kilonovae

Abstract Understanding the details of r -process nucleosynthesis in binary neutron star merger (BNSM) ejecta is key to interpreting kilonova observations and identifying the role of BNSMs in the origin of heavy elements. We present a self-consistent, two-dimensional, ray-by-ray radiation-hydrodynamic evolution of BNSM ejecta with an online nuclear network (NN) up to a timescale of days. For the first time, an initial numerical relativity ejecta profile composed of the dynamical component and spiral-wave and disk winds is evolved including detailed r -process reactions and nuclear heating effects. A simple model for the jet energy deposition is also included. Our simulation highlights that the common approach of relating in postprocessing the final nucleosynthesis yields to the initial thermodynamic profile of the ejecta can lead to inaccurate predictions. Moreover, we find that neglecting the details of the radiation-hydrodynamic evolution of the ejecta in nuclear calculations can introduce deviations of up to 1 order of magnitude in the final abundances of several elements, including very light and second r -process peak elements. The presence of a jet affects element production only in the innermost part of the polar ejecta, and it does not alter the global nucleosynthesis results. Overall, our analysis shows that employing an online NN improves the reliability of nucleosynthesis and kilonova light-curve predictions.

Magistrelli, Fabio (ORCID:0009000509767851)↗

tobac v1.5: introducing fast 3D tracking, splits and mergers, and other enhancements for identifying and analysing meteorological phenomena

There is a continuously increasing need for reliable feature detection and tracking tools based on objective analysis principles for use with meteorological data. Many tools have been developed over the previous 2 decades that attempt to address this need but most have limitations on the type of data they can be used with, feature computational and/or memory expenses that make them unwieldy with larger datasets, or require some form of data reduction prior to use that limits the tool's utility. The Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac) Python package is a modular, open-source tool that improves on the overall generality and utility of past tools. A number of scientific improvements (three spatial dimensions, splits and mergers of features, an internal spectral filtering tool) and procedural enhancements (increased computational efficiency, internal regridding of data, and treatments for periodic boundary conditions) have been included in tobac as a part of the tobac v1.5 update. These improvements have made tobac one of the most robust, powerful, and flexible identification and tracking tools in our field to date and expand its potential use in other fields. Future plans for tobac v2 are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗