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962 records · Page 54

Optimizing long-term monitoring of radiation air-dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Radiation air dose rates near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) have been steadily decreasing over the past eight years since the release of radioactive elements in March 2011. Currently, the radiation monitoring program is expected to transition to long-term monitoring after most of the remediation activities are completed. The main long-term monitoring objectives are to (1) confirm the continuing reduction of contaminant and hazard levels, (2) provide assurance for the public, (3) accumulate the basic datasets for scientific knowledge and future preparation, and (4) detect changes or anomalies in contaminant mobility (if they occur), or any unexpected processes or events. In this work, we have developed a methodology for optimizing the monitoring locations of radiation air dose-rate monitoring. Our approach consists of three steps in order to determine monitoring locations in a systematic manner: (1) prioritizing the critical locations, such as schools or regulatory requirement locations, (2) diversifying locations that cover the key environmental controls that are known to influence contaminant mobility and distributions, and (3) capturing the heterogeneity of radiation air-dose rates across the domain. Therefore, for the second step, we use a Gaussian mixture model to identify the representative locations among multiple environmental variables, such as elevation and land-cover types. For the third step, we use a Gaussian process model to capture and estimate the heterogeneity of air-dose rates across the domain. Employing an integrated dose-rate map derived from Bayesian geostatistical methods as a reference map, we distribute the monitoring locations in such a way as to capture the heterogeneity of the reference map. Our results have shown that this approach allows us to select monitoring locations in a systematic manner such that the heterogeneity of air dose rates is captured by the minimal number of monitoring locations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗

A Deep Neural Network for Achieving Spectrally Consistent and Seamless Infrared Radiance Measurements Across Geostationary Satellite Domains

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides the scientific community with observed top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave and longwave fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. To achieve this goal, CERES relies on TOA broadband fluxes derived from geostationary satellite (GEO) imagery to account for the diurnal flux variations between the CERES observation intervals. Consistent global flux derivation depends on accurate and consistent cloud retrievals. Scene-dependent spectral measurement inconsistency of the instruments that make up the contiguous ring of GEO observations (GEO-Ring), as well as limb darkening effects, can cause discontinuities in derived cloud properties and radiative fluxes at the boundaries of adjacent imager domains. Although the algorithms utilize radiative transfer models to account for instrument-band-dependent atmospheric correction and viewing zenith angle (VZA) dependency, small discontinuities may persist due to uncertainties inherent to the multiple imager-specific algorithms. Furthermore, while hyperspectral-instrument-based spectral band adjustment factors may effectively account for spectrally induced bias, they are less effective at reducing variance owed to the specific composition of the viewed scene, which is challenging to robustly characterize. As such, this article highlights the use of a deep neural network (DNN) to resolve spectral-and VZA-induced biases between GEO-Ring imagers. The DNN uses available infrared (IR) channels from the GEO instruments, along with viewing and solar illumination geometry, to estimate homogenized, VIIRS-like IR radiances for use in the GEO cloud algorithm. This approach is effective at mitigating scene-dependent spectral variance and VZA dependency, resulting in consistent radiance measurements across the GEO-Ring, thereby leading toward a more seamless global cloud assessment.

deep learning↗

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Applications of explainable artificial intelligence in renewable energy research

Researchers in renewable energy are applying deep learning (DL) to a variety of problems from diverse renewable energy domains, such as biofuels, wind, solar, power systems, buildings, vehicles, and transportation systems. Improvements in accuracy may be demonstrated using DL in laboratory settings. However, the lack of interpretability of DL models poses a practical limitation to their utility in advancing scientific knowledge and in the deployment of DL models in safety-critical energy systems. In this article, we discuss explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) as one pathway toward more interpretable DL models. We explore a brief timeline of U.S. national laboratory interest in XAI, an overview and taxonomy of methods in the field of XAI, and a selection of applications across renewable energy research domains. We conclude by highlighting pivotal areas where XAI can accelerate innovation in artificial intelligence for renewable energy research and other essential future directions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine learning-driven predictive resource management in complex science workflows

Here, the collaborative efforts of large communities in science experiments, often comprising thousands of global members, reflect a monumental commitment to exploration and discovery. Recently, advanced and complex data processing has gained increasing importance in science experiments. Data processing workflows typically consist of multiple intricate steps, and the precise specification of resource requirements is crucial for each step to allocate optimal resources for effective processing. Estimating resource requirements in advance is challenging due to a wide range of analysis scenarios, varying skill levels among community members, and the continuously increasing spectrum of computing options. One practical approach to mitigate these challenges involves initially processing a subset of each step to measure precise resource utilization from actual processing profiles before completing the entire step. While this two-staged approach enables processing on optimal resources for most of the workflow, it has drawbacks such as initial inaccuracies leading to potential failures and suboptimal resource usage, along with overhead from waiting for initial processing completion, which is critical for fast-turnaround analyses. In this context, our study introduces a novel pipeline of machine learning models within a comprehensive workflow management system, the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system. These models employ advanced machine learning techniques to predict key resource requirements, overcoming challenges posed by limited upfront knowledge of characteristics at each step. Accurate forecasts of resource requirements enable informed and proactive decision-making in workflow management, enhancing the efficiency of handling diverse, complex workflows across heterogeneous resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data Locality Enhancement of Dynamic Simulations for Exascale Computing (Final Report)

The development of modern processors exhibits two trends that complicate the optimizations of modern software. The first is the increasing sensitivity of processors' throughput to irregularities in computation. With more processors produced through a massive integration of simple cores, future systems will increasingly favor regular data-level parallel computations, but deviate from the needs of applications with complex patterns. Some evidences are already shown on Graphic Processing Units (GPU): Irregular data accesses (e.g., indirect references A[D[i]]) and conditional branches are limiting many GPU applications' performance at a level an order of magnitude lower than the peak of GPU. The second hardware trend is the growing gap between memory bandwidth and the aggregate speed—that is, the sum of all cores' computing power—of a Chip Multiprocessor (CMP). Despite the capped growth of the peak CPU speed, the aggregate speed of a CMP keeps increasing as more cores get into a single chip. It is expected that by 2018, node concurrency in an exascale system will increase by hundreds of times, whereas, memory bandwidth will expand by only 10 to 20 times. Consequently, data movement and storage is expected to consume more than 70% of the total system power. Bridging this gap is difficult; the complexities of modern CMP memory hierarchy make it even harder: Data cache becomes shared among computing units, and the sharing is often non-uniform—whether two computing units share a cache depends on their proximity and the level of the cache. On the recent IBM Power7 architecture, for instance, four hardware contexts (or SMT threads) in a core share the entire memory hierarchy, all cores in one chip share an on-chip L3 cache, and cores across chips share L3 and main memory through off-chip connections. These two trends complicate the translation of computing power into performance, especially for a program with either intensive data accesses or complex patterns in data accesses or control flow paths. Unfortunately, both attributes present and will persist in a class of important applications. For instance, many scientific simulations deal with a large volume of data. And meanwhile, as most real-world processes are non-uniform and evolving (e.g., the evolution of a galaxy or the process of a drug injection), both the computations and data accesses of these programs tend to be irregular and dynamically changing. Currently, the lack of support to these applications on modern CMP severely limits their performance. On GPU, as our recent study shows and other studies echo, performance enhancement of a factor of integers is possible when memory accesses or control flows are streamlined for a set of GPU applications. On multicore CPU, our studies show that traditional locality enhancement, for being oblivious to the new features of multicore memory hierarchy, may even cause large slowdown to data-intensive dynamic applications. The severity of the issues is expected to worsen as the two hardware trends continue. Some recent studies try to match software with the trends, but in a limited scope or manner. For irregularities on GPU, most studies focus on irregularities analyzable through static analysis (e.g., data accesses in regular loops). Dynamic irregularities are harder to address because the needed analysis and transformations typically have to happen at run time. Some other research resorts to hardware extensions, an actual adoption of which is unclear for the entailed space cost and complexity. For data locality, recent years have seen some exploitations of the new memory hierarchy on multicore for performance, but most of them are on process or thread scheduling, rather than program transformations. Our recent study reveals that program-level transformations may magnify the scheduling benefits by a factor of seven, concluding that program-level transformation should play a central role for data locality enhancement on modern CMP. But research in this direction has been sparse, and most have focused on data layout or cache performance modeling, rather than program transformations to match with the new memory hierarchy features. Overall, it is still an open question how to bridge the gap between dynamic computations and the two prominent properties of modern processors. The goal of this project is to develop a set of techniques and software tools to enhance the matching between memory accesses in dynamic simulations and the prominent features of modern and future CMP, alleviating the memory performance issues for petascale and exascale computing. This report summarizes the discoveries and products produced throughout this project. It includes free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods; coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution; algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Supporting dynamic parallelism is important for GPU to benefit a broad range of applications. There are currently two fundamental ways for programs to exploit dynamic parallelism on GPU: a software-based approach with software-managed worklists, and a hardware-based approach through dynamic subkernel launches. Neither is satisfactory. The former is complicated to program and is often subject to some load imbalance; the latter suffers large runtime overhead. In this work, we propose free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods. It allows programmers to use subkernel launches to express dynamic parallelism. It employs a novel compiler-based code transformation named subkernel launch removal to replace the subkernel launches with the reuse of parent threads. Coupled with an adaptive task assignment mechanism, the transformation reassigns the tasks in the subkernels to the parent threads with a good load balance. The technique requires no hardware extensions, immediately deployable on existing GPUs. It keeps the programming convenience of the subkernel launch-based approach while avoiding its large runtime overhead. Meanwhile, its superior load balancing makes it outperform manual worklist-based techniques by 3X on average. The work was published at the 48th Annual IEEE/ACM International Symposium on Microarchitecture (Micro'2015). A Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) system is typically equipped with many types of memory (e.g., global, constant, texture, shared, cache). Data placement determines what data are placed on which type of memory, essential for GPU memory performance. Prior optimizations of data placement always require a single view of a data object on memory, which limits the optimization effectiveness. In this work, we propose coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution. We demonstrate that under certain conditions, the multiple views can remain incoherent while facilitating enhanced data placement. We present a theorem and some compiler support to ensure the soundness of the usage of coherence-free multiview. We further develop reference-discerning data placement, a new way to enhance data placements on GPU. It enables more flexible data placements by using coherence-free multiview to leverage the slack in coherence requirement of some GPU programs. Experiments on three types of GPU systems show that, with less than 200KB space cost, the new data placement technique can provide a 1.6X average (up to 4.27X) speedup. In addition, we have examined algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Computing distances among data points is an essential part of many important algorithms in data analytics, graph analysis, and other domains. In each of these domains, developers have spent significant manual effort optimizing algorithms, often through novel applications of the triangle equality, in order to minimize the number of distance computations in the algorithms. In this work, we observe that many algorithms across these domains can be generalized as an instance of a generic distance-related abstraction. Based on this abstraction, we derive seven principles for correctly applying the triangular inequality to optimize distance-related algorithms. Guided by the findings, we develop Triangular OPtimizer (TOP), the first software framework that is able to automatically produce optimized algorithms that either matches or outperforms manually designed algorithms for solving distance-related problems. TOP achieves up to 237x speedups and 2.5X on average. The work has been published at the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML'15) and the 41st International Conference on Very Large Data Bases (VLDB'15).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Digitalization mapping and assessment process supporting ION strategic transformation activities

The existing fleet of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are an important asset in the nation’s portfolio of electrical generating resources. Their continued safe and reliable operation are critical to providing a large source of carbon-free electricity to power the nation’s economy. The United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program develops the scientific bases, methods, and tools, for the continued safe and economical operation of the nation's commercial NPPs. The Plant Modernization Pathway within LWRS Program focuses on providing guidance to industry on the full-scale implementation of modernization solutions for NPPs that significantly reduce the technical and financial risks associated with modernization. This research is focused on helping the nuclear industry understand how to digitize and digitalize their NPPs so that they can design their modernization solutions to be scalable, sustainable, and integrated both laterally and horizontally within their organization. That is, this research creates a digital transformation in NPPs by reshaping cultural mindsets and by identifying business efficiencies. In partnership with industry, and using four previously established guiding principles for digitalization, this research supported NPP modernization through assessing readiness for digitalization as a means to achieve integrated operations for nuclear. Specifically, this research created an assessment to review an entire organization’s work processes to gather information about the digitalization health of the plant. The assessment tools were administered to plant employees, and the results were used to develop a digitalization plan. The survey assessment identified the optimal candidate processes that would most benefit from a digitalization initiative which were revealed through analytical frameworks. One analysis calculated mean digitalization health indicator scores for all endorsed activities which allowed the researchers to rank and color code the results for easy identification. Individual health indicator scores are also provided, should our industry partner wish to understand these findings according to their own organizational priorities, business considerations and desired end-state. The results were also analyzed from the perspective that organizations are comprised of different types of innovators (e.g., generators, optimizers, conceptualizers, and implementers), which differentially affects the organization’s ability to comprehend and adapt to change (i.e., opportunities to innovate). Understanding the relative composition of innovator types at an NPP allows them to gather insights into the strengths and weaknesses they have in innovating how work is performed. For the utility that partnered with this research team, the results showed that implementers make up the largest portion of respondents and conceptualizers the smallest portion. Knowing the proportion of innovator types gave this organization insights on how they can effectively implement their innovation solutions. Additionally, the results were analyzed from a technical, economic, and risk perspective to identify and quantify work reduction opportunities (WROs). Recognizing that not all cost-saving opportunities are the same, a Technical, Economic and Risk Assessment (TERA) was performed to evaluate WROs to identify areas of greatest potential and lowest risk. The key results from TERA included a digitalization opportunity score for each activity, and a calculation of potential cost savings. These two outputs formed the bases for calculating a priority index and rank for the activities/processes assessed. From the prioritization calculations, TERA can then help the utility 1) decide what digitalization priorities to invest money in implementing and then 2) calculates how much should be invested in the digitalization initiatives selected to achieve cost savings and/or an acceptable return on investment. Last, onsite interviews revealed several inefficiencies in the standard work processes that occur cross-departmentally that are due to the absence of digitized and digitalized processes. Examples of these include time spent scanning paper documents and then uploading the documents electronically, obtaining signatures, and searching for desired information. This represents a digital but not digitalized process. Over 15 opportunities to improve work processes were identified through this multi-method digitalization assessment. The various analytical assessments used (e.g., TERA, digitalization health indicator scores), as well as discussions with the utility partner, corroborated that all the opportunities identified had a strong potential to make work processes more efficient and to improve overall performance of the NPP.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗