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DOE OSTI2019

Review and categorization of existing studies on the estimation of probabilistic failure metrics for Reactor Coolant Pressure Boundary piping and steam generator tubes in Nuclear Power Plants

This article presents the first output of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP), titled Methodology for Assessing Pipe Failure Rates in Advanced Water-Cooled Reactors (AWCRs), launched in 2018. This IAEA CRP is aimed at developing a good-practices document for estimating the probabilistic failure metrics of piping in AWCRs. The reliability of piping that comprise the Reactor Coolant Pressure Boundary (RCPB) is important for maintaining safe and stable operations of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) because failure of those piping components could lead to undesirable consequences, such as plant shutdown, costly repair, the occurrence of Loss-of-Coolant Accidents (LOCAs) and, possibly, subsequent core damage or large release events. Probabilistic failure metrics (e.g., failure rate, failure frequency, or failure probability) of RCPB components are the key inputs to the Probabilistic Safety/Risk Assessment (PSA/PRA) and risk management of NPPs. The estimation of probabilistic failure metrics, however, is challenging, especially for AWCRs, due to the lack of operating experience. Therefore, as the first step of the IAEA CRP activities, this paper is developed to provide a literature review of the existing studies (from 2000 to April 2019) on the estimation of probabilistic failure metrics for RCPB piping and Steam Generator (SG) tubes of NPPs and to categorize them based on four criteria: (1) explicitness of incorporation of physical failure mechanisms; (2) types of failure characterization; (3) types of physical models for degradation; and (4) explicitness of consideration of maintenance. The existing studies are also analyzed from the viewpoint of the following key aspects: (i) uncertainty analysis, (ii) sensitivity analysis, (iii) validation strategies, and (iv) the areas of applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Techno-economic analysis and life-cycle greenhouse gas mitigation cost of five routes to bio-jet fuel blendstocks

Decarbonizing the air transportation sector remains one of the most challenging hurdles to mitigating climate change. Lignocellulosic biomass-derived jet fuel blendstocks can contribute to the shift toward renewable, low-carbon energy sources for aircrafts. Producing these renewable jet fuel molecules from biomass requires advanced pathways with the potential for efficient and affordable conversion routes. Here, this paper presents a detailed techno-economic analysis and sensitivity analysis, including estimated minimum selling price (MSP), and life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation costs for five routes to four potential bio-jet fuel molecules – limonane via limonene, limonane via 1,8-cineole, tetrahydromethylcyclopentadiene dimer (RJ-4), bisabolane, and epi-isozizaane. The simulated biorefineries utilize biomass sorghum and an integrated high-gravity ionic liquid-based biomass deconstruction process. We present results reflecting the current state of the technology and potential future scenarios with improved yields. Among the conversion pathways and the fuel molecules evaluated in this study, limonane, bisabolane, and epi-isozizaane could reach an MSP of 0.73–0.91 dollars per L-Jet A (2.75–3.45 dollars per gal-Jet A) in optimized future cases, without a hypothetical lignin-derived co-product. RJ-4 requires a more costly upgrading process and catalysts, resulting in a comparatively higher MSP (1.33 dollars per L-Jet A or 5.04 dollars per gal-jet A). Based on the GHG footprints of each fuel, the minimum achievable carbon mitigation cost relative to conventional Jet-A is 29 dollars per metric ton CO 2e , which is just under double the current cap-and-trade market price in California. In the absence of any policy support, the economics could be improved through high-value uses for lignin. To reach a target selling price of 0.66 dollars per L-Jet A (2.50 dollars per gal), lignin-derived products would need to be sold for at least 1.9 dollars per kg. However, the higher energy density of these bio-based blendstocks offers valuable improvements in aircraft efficiency/range; we find that commercial airlines may be willing to pay a 4–14 cent per L premium for these bio-jet fuels. In conclusion, our results highlight the need for improvements beyond currently-reported yields for the biologically produced intermediates, identification of ideal microbial hosts, selection of metabolic pathways to achieve competitive production costs, and a focus on fuels with attractive properties that increase their value.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Abstract Behind the meter rooftop solar plus storage (PVESS) has the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Whereas the bill reduction and environmental benefits of PVESS are well studied, its monetary resilience benefits are less understood. The increasing trend of power interruptions driven by extreme weather events heightens the need to understand these benefits. This study leverages various publicly available datasets to perform a cost benefit analysis of adding to determine the resilience value of PVESS for a typical single family home in each county in the continental U.S. We find that PVESS is very effective to technically mitigate interruptions across the country. However, the monetary benefits in the base case only cover about 14% of battery costs, with no county exceeding 60%. This is somewhat expected, given that PVESS provide other monetary benefits that are not part of this analysis. Through sensitivities, we find that higher frequency of extreme weather events roughly triples the resilience value of PVESS and that higher values of lost load double the same metric. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the benefit cost ratio of PVESS for customers living in areas with higher-than-average frequency of long duration interruptions and value of lost load is already above one even without considering other value streams. We conclude with recommendations that regulators and utilities could implement to enable customers to calculate and capture the resilience value of PVESS more efficiently.

Baik, Sunhee↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inferring small-sample-reactivity worth from oscillation experiment with auto-corrected local flux

To estimate reactivity changes as a function of time from the signal of detectors count rates, one usually uses point kinetic equations. However, when detectors are located inside the core, it is often necessary to compute a correction factor to account for the flux-shape deformation (i.e. the change of detector efficiency that may have been induced by neutron absorbers movements). Various simulation methods have been developed depending on transients observed. They range from the resolution of static equations up to full-time-dependent neutron transport in 3D. However, those methods require high computational-cost calculations of local reaction rates that rely on nuclear data evaluations. Therefore, a 'measured' reactivity is never determined through pure measurements. Taking advantage of the known oscillation movement of a small sample at the center of the MINERVE reactor, the innovative algorithm presented in this paper derives the correction factor needed to get no time drift on reactivity steps. Derived correction factors are in good agreement with those obtained independently with TRIPOLI-4 through sensitivity analysis. Low sensitivity to the sample composition and moderate sensitivity to the detectors position reinforce the reliability of those results. This application paves the way to almost pure nuclear data reactivity measurements. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Modeling the Integrated Expansion of the Canadian and U.S. Power Sectors with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

This document describes the development effort for creating a robust representation of the combined capacity expansion of the U.S. and Canadian electric sectors within the NREL ReEDS model. Thereafter, it demonstrates the newly established capability through an illustrative sensitivity analysis. In conducting the sensitivity analysis, we describe the value of an integrated modeling approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

WRF-simulated low-level jets over Iowa: characterization and sensitivity studies

Abstract. Output from 6 months of high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed to characterize local low-level jets (LLJs) over Iowa for winter and spring in the contemporary climate. Low-level jets affect rotor plane aerodynamic loading, turbine structural loading and turbine performance, and thus accurate characterization and identification are pertinent. Analyses using a detection algorithm wherein the wind speed above and below the jet maximum must be below 80 % of the jet wind speed within a vertical window of approximately 20–530 m a.g.l. (above ground level) indicate the presence of an LLJ in at least one of the 14 700 4 km×4 km grid cells over Iowa on 98 % of nights. Nocturnal LLJs are most frequently associated with stable stratification and low turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and hence are more frequent during the winter months. The spatiotemporal mean LLJ maximum (jet core) wind speed is 9.55 m s−1, and the mean height is 182 m. Locations of high LLJ frequency and duration across the state are seasonally varying, with a mean duration of 3.5 h. The highest frequency occurs in the topographically complex northwest of the state in winter and in the flatter northeast of the state in spring. Sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to the (i) LLJ definition and (ii) vertical resolution at which the WRF output is sampled is examined. LLJ definitions commonly used in the literature are considered in the first sensitivity analysis. These sensitivity analyses indicate that LLJ characteristics are highly variable with definition. Use of different definitions identifies both different frequencies of LLJs and different LLJ events. Further, when the model output is down-sampled to lower vertical resolution, the mean jet core wind speed height decreases, but spatial distributions of regions of high frequency and duration are conserved. Implementation of a polynomial interpolation to extrapolate down-sampled output to full-resolution results in reduced sensitivity of LLJ characteristics to down-sampling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1966

Computer-aided design. III.

Digital computer-aided circuit sensitivity analysis using symbols, with example of band pass filter analysis

DIGITAL COMPUTER↗

NASA NTRS1988

Optimization by decomposition: A step from hierarchic to non-hierarchic systems

A new, non-hierarchic decomposition is formulated for system optimization that uses system analysis, system sensitivity analysis, temporary decoupled optimizations performed in the design subspaces corresponding to the disciplines and subsystems, and a coordination optimization concerned with the redistribution of responsibility for the constraint satisfaction and design trades among the disciplines and subsystems. The approach amounts to a variation of the well-known method of subspace optimization modified so that the analysis of the entire system is eliminated from the subspace optimization and the subspace optimizations may be performed concurrently.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗

NASA NTRS1989

Optimization by decomposition: A step from hierarchic to non-hierarchic systems

A new, non-hierarchic decomposition is formulated for system optimization that uses system analysis, system sensitivity analysis, temporary decoupled optimizations performed in the design subspaces corresponding to the disciplines and subsystems, and a coordination optimization concerned with the redistribution of responsibility for the constraint satisfaction and design trades among the disciplines and subsystems, and a coordination optimization concerned with the redistribution of responsibility for the constraint satisfaction and design trades among the disciplines and subsystems. The approach amounts to a variation of the well-known method of subspace optimization modified so that the analysis of the entire system is eliminated from the subspace optimization and the subspace optimizations may be performed concurrently.

Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw↗

NASA NTRS1989

An investigation of using an RQP based method to calculate parameter sensitivity derivatives

Estimation of the sensitivity of problem functions with respect to problem variables forms the basis for many of our modern day algorithms for engineering optimization. The most common application of problem sensitivities has been in the calculation of objective function and constraint partial derivatives for determining search directions and optimality conditions. A second form of sensitivity analysis, parameter sensitivity, has also become an important topic in recent years. By parameter sensitivity, researchers refer to the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and current design point due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. Methods for calculating these derivatives have been proposed by several authors (Armacost and Fiacco 1974, Sobieski et al 1981, Schmit and Chang 1984, and Vanderplaats and Yoshida 1985). Two drawbacks to estimating parameter sensitivities by current methods have been: (1) the need for second order information about the Lagrangian at the current point, and (2) the estimates assume no change in the active set of constraints. The first of these two problems is addressed here and a new algorithm is proposed that does not require explicit calculation of second order information.

Beltracchi, Todd J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Radiation dependence of inverter propagation delay from timing sampler measurements

A timing sampler consisting of 14 four-stage inverter-pair chains with different load capacitances was fabricated in 1.6-micron n-well CMOS and irradiated with cobalt-60 at 10 rad(Si)/s. For this CMOS process the measured results indicate that the rising delay increases by about 2.2 ns/Mrad(Si) and the falling delay increase is very small, i.e., less than 300 ps/Mrad(Si). The amount of radiation-induced delay depends on the size of the load capacitance. The maximum value observed for this effect was 5.65 ns/pF-Mrad(Si). Using a sensitivity analysis, the sensitivity of the rising delay to radiation can be explained by a simple timing model and the radiation sensitivity of dc MOSFET parameters. This same approach could not explain the insensitivity of the falling delay to radiation. This may be due to a failure of the timing model and/or trapping effects.

Buehler, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Computational mechanics analysis tools for parallel-vector supercomputers

Computational algorithms for structural analysis on parallel-vector supercomputers are reviewed. These parallel algorithms, developed by the authors, are for the assembly of structural equations, 'out-of-core' strategies for linear equation solution, massively distributed-memory equation solution, unsymmetric equation solution, general eigensolution, geometrically nonlinear finite element analysis, design sensitivity analysis for structural dynamics, optimization search analysis and domain decomposition. The source code for many of these algorithms is available.

Storaasli, Olaf O.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stacking optimization of compressor blades of gas turbine engines

A procedure is presented to obtain optimal designs of axial compressor blades with structural design constraints. Coefficients of the polynomials defining the circumferential tilting angles and the axial leaning distances of the airfoil cross sections from the initial design geometry are used as design variables. The compressor blades are modeled by 20-node solid elements. An efficient finite element method is developed for modal analysis and sensitivity analysis with respect to the design variables. Based on this information, a sequential linear programming method is applied to calculate the required change of geometry for the desired structural design constraints.

Cheu, Tsu-Chien↗

NASA NTRS1993

Computational mechanics analysis tools for parallel-vector supercomputers

Computational algorithms for structural analysis on parallel-vector supercomputers are reviewed. These parallel algorithms, developed by the authors, are for the assembly of structural equations, 'out-of-core' strategies for linear equation solution, massively distributed-memory equation solution, unsymmetric equation solution, general eigen-solution, geometrically nonlinear finite element analysis, design sensitivity analysis for structural dynamics, optimization algorithm and domain decomposition. The source code for many of these algorithms is available from NASA Langley.

Storaasli, O. O.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) for a 3-D Flexible Wing

The formulation and implementation of an optimization method called Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) are extended from single discipline analysis (aerodynamics only) to multidisciplinary analysis - in this case, static aero-structural analysis - and applied to a simple 3-D wing problem. The method aims to reduce the computational expense incurred in performing shape optimization using state-of-the-art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow analysis, Finite Element Method (FEM) structural analysis and sensitivity analysis tools. Results for this small problem show that the method reaches the same local optimum as conventional optimization. However, unlike its application to the win,, (single discipline analysis), the method. as I implemented here, may not show significant reduction in the computational cost. Similar reductions were seen in the two-design-variable (DV) problem results but not in the 8-DV results given here.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) for a 3-D Flexible Wing

The formulation and implementation of an optimization method called Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) are extended from single discipline analysis (aerodynamics only) to multidisciplinary analysis - in this case, static aero-structural analysis and applied to a simple 3-D wing problem. The method aims to reduce the computational expense incurred in performing shape optimization using state-of-the-art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow analysis, Finite Element Method (FEM) structural analysis and sensitivity analysis tools. Results for this small problem show that the method reaches the same local optimum as conventional optimization. However, unlike its application to the rigid wing (single discipline analysis), the method, as implemented here, may not show significant reduction in the computational cost. Similar reductions were seen in the two-design-variable (DV) problem results but not in the 8-DV results given here.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Simultaneous Aerodynamic and Structural Design Optimization (SASDO) for a 3-D Wing

The formulation and implementation of an optimization method called Simultaneous Aerodynamic and Structural Design Optimization (SASDO) is shown as an extension of the Simultaneous Aerodynamic Analysis and Design Optimization (SAADO) method. It is extended by the inclusion of structure element sizing parameters as design variables and Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis responses as constraints. The method aims to reduce the computational expense. incurred in performing shape and sizing optimization using state-of-the-art Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) flow analysis, FEM structural analysis and sensitivity analysis tools. SASDO is applied to a simple. isolated, 3-D wing in inviscid flow. Results show that the method finds the saine local optimum as a conventional optimization method with some reduction in the computational cost and without significant modifications; to the analysis tools.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

UNIPASS for AvSP? A Broader View

UNIPASS is a general-purpose probabilistic computer program consisting of three major modules, including preprocessor, solver and postprocessor. UNIPASS contains a user-friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI), numerous state-of-the-art probabilistic analysis techniques, a large library of statistical distributions and a function module with a large library of support functions that can easily define any complex limit-state function in a scripting FORTRAN-like syntax format. Its inverse probability analysis and sensitivities analysis capabilities make it a powerful design aid in any product cycle. Its precise numerical analysis engine is accurate enough to push the failure probabilities of a design to well below 10 (exp -50). UNIPASS is equipped with advanced artificial intelligence that is designed to handle systems with an essentially unlimited number of random variables with ease and efficiency. Its modular arrangement allows you to tailor an analysis to the desired level of accuracy and efficiency. The depth and comprehensiveness of UNIPASS are built upon the decades of experience and expertise of industry leaders including Boeing Aircraft, NASA and the DoD. Its rich content also makes UNIPASS a valuable instructional tool for random processes and probabilistic mechanics. The topics include: 1) Reliability in AvSP; 2) Role of UNIPASS in AvSP; and 3) Examples. This paper is in viewgraph form.

Wu, N. Eva↗