Adaptive Modeling of the International Space Station Electrical Power System
Software simulations provide NASA engineers the ability to experiment with spacecraft systems in a computer-imitated environment. Engineers currently develop software models that encapsulate spacecraft system behavior. These models can be inaccurate due to invalid assumptions, erroneous operation, or system evolution. Increasing accuracy requires manual calibration and domain-specific knowledge. This thesis presents a method for automatically learning system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques are applied to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). We also explore a knowledge fusion approach that uses traditional engineered EPS models to supplement the learned models. We observed that these engineered EPS models provide useful background knowledge to reduce predictive error spikes when confronted with making predictions in situations that are quite different from the training scenarios used when learning the model. Evaluations using ISS sensor data and existing EPS models demonstrate the success of the adaptive approach. Our experimental results show that adaptive modeling provides reductions in model error anywhere from 80% to 96% over these existing models. Final discussions include impending use of adaptive modeling technology for ISS mission operations and the need for adaptive modeling in future NASA lunar and Martian exploration.