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H420 Imager Calibration Procedure: Field of View Scan

Gamma-ray imagers with coded apertures have a finite field of view (FOV) within which an image of a source can be generated. A “FOV scan” is a facet of imager calibration procedure that involves collecting specialized data for a range of source locations filling the FOV in order to understand and correct for differences in imager performance. Systematic distortions reveal relative displacements between internal imager components, which can be accounted for in data analysis. The success of this scan requires a stable imager position during the full measurement duration (~hours). This document summarizes the hardware and software tools required to conduct a FOV calibration scan of an H3D H420 Coded Aperture Gamma-Ray Imager.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Cross-correlation of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data with ACT and Planck thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect observations. I. Measurements, systematics tests, and feedback model constraints

Here we present a tomographic measurement of the cross-correlation between thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (TSZ) maps from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and weak galaxy lensing shears measured during the first three years of observations of the Dark Energy Survey. This correlation is sensitive to the thermal energy in baryons over a wide redshift range and is therefore a powerful probe of astrophysical feedback. We detect the correlation at a statistical significance of 21σ, the highest significance to date. We examine the TSZ maps for potential contaminants, including cosmic infrared background and radio sources, finding that cosmic infrared background has a substantial impact on our measurements and must be taken into account in our analysis. We use the cross-correlation measurements to test different feedback models. In particular, we model the TSZ using several different pressure profile models calibrated against hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis marginalizes over redshift uncertainties, shear calibration biases, and intrinsic alignment effects. We also marginalize over Ω m and σ 8 using Planck or DES priors. We find that the data prefer the model with a low amplitude of the pressure profile at small scales, compatible with a scenario with strong active galactic nuclei feedback and ejection of gas from the inner part of the halos. When using a more flexible model for the shear profile, constraints are weaker, and the data cannot discriminate between different baryonic prescriptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Uncertainty Budget for Detector-Based Absolute Radiometric Calibration With GLAMR

The accuracy of the absolute radiometric calibration (RadCal) for remote sensing instruments is essential to their wide range of applications. The uncertainty associated to the traditional source-based RadCal method is assessed at a 2% (k=1) or higher level for radiance measurement. To further improve the accuracy to meet the demands of climate studies, a detector-based approach using tunable lasers as a light source has been devised. The Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurement of Radiance, known as the GLAMR system, is a notable example of the incorporation of such technology. Using transfer radiometers calibrated at NIST as calibration standards, the absolute spectral response (ASR) function of a remote sensing instrument is measured with its uncertainty traceable to the International System of Units. This paper presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the detector-based absolute RadCal using the GLAMR system. It identifies and examines uncertainty sources during the GLAMR RadCal test, including those from the GLAMR system, the testing configuration, and data processing methodologies. Analysis is carried out to quantify the contribution of each source and emphasize the most influential factors. It is shown that the calibration uncertainty of GLAMR RadCal can be better than 0.3% (k=1) in the wavelength range of 350-950 nm and 0.6% (k=1) between 950-2300 nm, with the exception of regions with strong water absorption. In addition, recommendations are made to refine the calibration process to further reduce the uncertainty.

Zhipeng Wang↗

Time Changes of the European Gravity Field from GRACE: A Comparison with Ground Measurements from Superconducting Gravimeters and with Hydrology Model Predictions

We investigate the time-variable gravity changes in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 18 month duration from April 2002 to October 2003. Gravity anomaly maps are retrieved in Central Europe from the monthly satellite solutions we compare the fields according to various truncation levels (typically between degree 10 and 20) of the initial fields (expressed in spherical harmonics to degree 120). For these different degrees, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the time-variable gravity field leads us to its main spatial and temporal characteristics. We show that the dominant signal is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both in agreement with predictions in Europe modeled using snow and soil-moisture variations from recent hydrology models. We compare these GRACE gravity field changes to surface gravity observations from 6 superconducting gravimeters of the GGP (Global Geodynamics Project) European sub-network, with a special attention to loading corrections. Initial results suggest that all 3 data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) are responding to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few microGal (at length scales of approx.1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. We also point out that the GRACE gravity field evolution seems to indicate that there is a trend in gravity between summer 2002 and summer 2003 which can be related to the 2003 heatwave in Europe and its hydrological consequences (drought). Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in retrieving a regional solution from the network of gravimeters, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

Hinderer, J.↗

Measurement of the $t\bar{t}$ production cross section in lepton+jets final states in pp collisions at 8 TeV and ratio of 8 to 7 TeV cross sections

A measurement of the top quark pair production ($t\bar{t}$) cross section in proton-proton collisions at the centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV is presented using data collected with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.6 fb$^{-1}$. This analysis is performed in the $t\bar{t}$ decay channels with one isolated, high transverse momentum electron or muon and at least four jets, at least one of which is required to be identified as originating from hadronization of a b quark. The calibration of the jet energy scale and the efficiency of b~jet identification are determined from data. The measured $\mathrm{ t \bar{t} }$ cross section is 228.5 $\pm$ 3.8 (stat) $\pm$ 13.7 (syst) $\pm$ 6.0 (lumi) pb. This measurement is compared with an analysis of 7 TeV data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb$^{-1}$, to determine the ratio of 8 TeV to 7 TeV cross sections, which is found to be 1.43 $\pm$ 0.04 (stat) $\pm$ 0.07 (syst) $\pm$ 0.05 (lumi). Finally, the measurements are in agreement with QCD predictions up to next-to-next-to-leading order.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design and performance testing of a novel far field Gamma system to assay radioactive waste in 400 and 200 litre drums - 15339

A Far Field Gamma ray Measurement system has been developed for measuring and assaying both 400 and 200 litre waste drums with a wide range of activity at nuclear power stations. These include radioactive waste drums with surface dose-rates of less than 2 mSv/h (200 mrem/h) and, at the higher range of activity, 400 litre drums with surface dose-rates of up to 50 mSv/h (5 rem/h). The assay system incorporates an electro-mechanically cooled high purity Germanium profile detector and advanced digital spectroscopic analysis electronics. A novel optimised conical-trapezoidal collimator has been incorporated to reduce the effect of the radioactive background in addition to the conventional detector lead shield with tin and copper graded lining to reduce the effect of lead X-rays. Two features have been incorporated to reduce detector dead time and maintain detector resolution when measuring high activity drums. The first is the inclusion of two automated tungsten filters of different thickness as an integral part of the detector collimator. The filters are used in conjunction with an automated rail system on which the detector platform is mounted. The detector can be positioned at different distances from the drum surface in order to reduce detector dead time. The deployment of the filters and the adjustment of the drum - detector position are automatically controlled based on a user defined dose-rate limit table. The data is provided by two Geiger-Muller dose-rate detectors, which are used to measure the drum surface dose-rate. This data is subsequently used to adjust the detector position and in cases of higher dose-rate deploy one or other of the tungsten filters. The drum rotation platform incorporates a load cell to determine drum weight and hence the drum density. This information is used to calculate an attenuation correction based on the assumption of uniform drum density and uniform distribution of activity within the drum. Where the waste drums have a more complicated and known regular internal structure, such as a small radioactive region surrounded by an annulus of shielding material, the analysis algorithms incorporated into the far field geometry and attenuation correction spectroscopic data analysis code are able to make a more accurate determination of drum activity than would be possible assuming a completely uniform drum. The detector energy and efficiency calibration is achieved using a point source with multiple gamma ray energy peaks. The response of the high purity Germanium detector is also modelled using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon code and the model is benchmarked using the measured point source calibration data. The performance of the instrument has been determined for a range of uniform density matrix drums containing a set of Eu-152 line or rod sources located in re-entrant tubes positioned on an equal volume basis. When rotated, the test drums with volume distributed line sources simulate waste drums of different density each with a uniformly distributed radioactive source. The measurements have been validated using Monte Carlo simulations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Computer program for post-flight evaluation of the control surface response for an attitude controlled missile

A FORTRAN IV coded computer program is presented for post-flight analysis of a missile's control surface response. It includes preprocessing of digitized telemetry data for time lags, biases, non-linear calibration changes and filtering. Measurements include autopilot attitude rate and displacement gyro output and four control surface deflections. Simple first order lags are assumed for the pitch, yaw and roll axes of control. Each actuator is also assumed to be represented by a first order lag. Mixing of pitch, yaw and roll commands to four control surfaces is assumed. A pseudo-inverse technique is used to obtain the pitch, yaw and roll components from the four measured deflections. This program has been used for over 10 years on the NASA/SCOUT launch vehicle for post-flight analysis and was helpful in detecting incipient actuator stall due to excessive hinge moments. The program is currently set up for a CDC CYBER 175 computer system. It requires 34K words of memory and contains 675 cards. A sample problem presented herein including the optional plotting requires eleven (11) seconds of central processor time.

Knauber, R. N.↗

Kinetic parameters of the GUINEVERE reference configuration in VENUS-F reactor obtained from a pile noise experiment using Rossi and Feynman methods

A pile noise measurement campaign has been conducted by the CEA in the VENUS-F reactor (SCK-CEN, Mol Belgium) in April 2011 in the reference critical configuration of the GUINEVERE experimental program. The experimental setup made it possible to estimate the core kinetic parameters: the prompt neutron decay constant, the delayed neutron fraction and the generation time. A precise assessment of these constants is of prime importance. In particular, the effective delayed neutron fraction is used to normalize and compare calculated reactivities of different subcritical configurations, obtained by modifying either the core layout or the control rods position, with experimental ones deduced from the analysis of measurements. This paper presents results obtained with a CEA-developed time stamping acquisition system. Data were analyzed using Rossi-α and Feynman-α methods. Results were normalized to reactor power using a calibrated fission chamber with a deposit of Np-237. Calculated factors were necessary to the analysis: the Diven factor was computed by the ENEA (Italy) and the power calibration factor by the CNRS/IN2P3/LPC Caen. Results deduced with both methods are consistent with respect to calculated quantities. Recommended values are given by the Rossi-α estimator, that was found to be the most robust. The neutron generation time was found equal to 0.438 ± 0.009 μs and the effective delayed neutron fraction is 765 ± 8 pcm. Discrepancies with the calculated value (722 pcm, calculation from ENEA) are satisfactory: -5.6% for the Rossi-α estimate and -2.7% for the Feynman-α estimate. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Research in Solar Physics: Analysis of Skylab/ATM S-056 X-Ray Data

Data obtained by the X-ray event analyzer are described as well as methods used for film calibration. Topics discussed include analyses of the 15 June 1973 flare, oscillations in the solar soft X-ray flux, and deconvolution of X-ray images of the 5 September 1973 flare.

Henze, W., Jr.↗

FOREGROUND MODEL AND ANTENNA CALIBRATION ERRORS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF THE SKY-AVERAGED λ21 cm SIGNAL AT z∼ 20

The most promising near-term observable of the cosmic dark age prior to widespread reionization (z ∼ 15-200) is the sky-averaged λ21 cm background arising from hydrogen in the intergalactic medium. Though an individual antenna could in principle detect the line signature, data analysis must separate foregrounds that are orders of magnitude brighter than the λ21 cm background (but that are anticipated to vary monotonically and gradually with frequency, e.g., they are considered {sup s}pectrally smooth{sup )}. Using more physically motivated models for foregrounds than in previous studies, we show that the intrinsic spectral smoothness of the foregrounds is likely not a concern, and that data analysis for an ideal antenna should be able to detect the λ21 cm signal after subtracting a ∼fifth-order polynomial in log ν. However, we find that the foreground signal is corrupted by the angular and frequency-dependent response of a real antenna. The frequency dependence complicates modeling of foregrounds commonly based on the assumption of spectral smoothness. Our calculations focus on the Large-aperture Experiment to detect the Dark Age, which combines both radiometric and interferometric measurements. We show that statistical uncertainty remaining after fitting antenna gain patterns to interferometric measurements is not anticipated to compromise extraction of the λ21 cm signal for a range of cosmological models after fitting a seventh-order polynomial to radiometric data. Our results generalize to most efforts to measure the sky-averaged spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation, Analysis, and Application of Internal Strain-Gage Balance Data

Experimental processes, analytical methods, and numerical algorithms are described that may be used to predict the forces and moments of an internal strain–gage balance during a wind tunnel test. First, the control volume model of a strain–gage balance and the concepts of load state, load space, and output space are introduced. These important abstractions provide a better understanding of fundamental characteristics of different balance load prediction approaches. Then, the description of strain–gage balance data and the definition of the primary bridge sensitivity are discussed. Afterwards, basic elements of the calibration of a typical six–component balance are reviewed. Two fundamentally different balance load prediction methods, the processing of check loads, and related topics are also discussed. Three real–world balance data examples are reviewed in great detail to illustrate typical analysis results for a variety of strain–gage balance designs. Finally, important observations are summarized and recommendations are provided. – Additional information and detailed mathematical derivations can be found in the appendices of the document. They include the following topics: balance terminology, definitions of important statistical metrics, balance axis system conventions, balance load transformations, the combined load diagram, electrical output format options, bi–directional output characteristics, determination of the natural zeros, derivation of two balance load prediction methods, description of two tare load iteration algorithms, modeling of balance temperature effects, basics of three–component moment balances, definition of the percent contribution, detection of linear and near–linear dependencies in balance calibration data, a regression model search algorithm, balance interactions, and other related information.

strain-gage balance↗

An analysis of short haul air passenger demand, volume 2

Several demand models for short haul air travel are proposed and calibrated on pooled data. The models are designed to predict demand and analyze some of the motivating phenomena behind demand generation. In particular, an attempt is made to include the effects of competing modes and of alternate destinations. The results support three conclusions: (1) the auto mode is the air mode's major competitor; (2) trip time is an overriding factor in intermodal competition, with air fare at its present level appearing unimportant to the typical short haul air traveler; and (3) distance appears to underly several demand generating phenomena, and therefore, must be considered very carefully to any intercity demand model. It may be the cause of the wide range of fare elasticities reported by researchers over the past 15 years. A behavioral demand model is proposed and calibrated. It combines the travel generating effects of income and population, the effects of modal split, the sensitivity of travel to price and time, and the effect of alternative destinations satisfying the trip purpose.

Blumer, T. P.↗

HCMM hydrological analysis in Utah

Temperature calibration and groundwater depth location studies were finalized. Distinctions among algae species and among suspended materials (turbidity) using HCMM data were investigated. Field evaluations of algae's effect on evaporation pan readings were completed and related to the lake and HCMM data. Additional correlations among infrared and reflectivity data were made using the color graphics capabilities developed during this project.

Source record↗

A consistent dataset for the net income distribution for 190 countries and aggregated to 32 geographical regions from 1958 to 2015

Abstract. Data on income distributions within and across countries are becoming increasingly important for informing analysis of income inequality and understanding the distributional consequences of climate change. While datasets on income distribution collected from household surveys are available for multiple countries, these datasets often do not represent the same concept of inequality (or income concept) and therefore make comparisons across countries, over time and across datasets difficult. Here, we present a consistent dataset of income distributions across 190 countries from 1958 to 2015 measured in terms of net income. We complement the observed values in this dataset with values imputed from a summary measure of the income distribution, specifically the Gini coefficient. For the imputation, we use a recently developed nonparametric principal-component-based approach that shows an excellent fit to data on income distributions compared to other approaches. We also present another version of this dataset aggregated from the country level to 32 geographical regions. Our dataset is developed for the purpose of calibrating models such as integrated human–Earth system models with detailed data on income distributions. This dataset will enable more robust analysis of income distribution at multiple scales. The latest version of our data are available on Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7093997 (Narayan et al., 2022b).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian analysis of a future β decay experiment's sensitivity to neutrino mass scale and ordering

Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. In this work, we present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the β-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision β-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within ~40 meV after 1 year (90% credibility). Neutrino masses > 500 meV could be measured within ≈5 meV. Using only β decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation β-decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Combination of cluster number counts and two-point correlations: validation on mock Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We present a method of combining cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations, namely galaxy clustering, galaxy–cluster cross-correlations, cluster autocorrelations, and cluster lensing. This data vector yields comparable cosmological constraints to traditional analyses that rely on small-scale cluster lensing for mass calibration. We use cosmological survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data to validate the analytical covariance matrix and the parameter inferences. The posterior distribution from the analysis of simulations is statistically consistent with the absence of systematic biases detectable at the precision of the DES-Y1 experiment. We compare the χ2 values in simulations to their expectation and find no significant difference. The robustness of our results against a variety of systematic effects is verified using a simulated likelihood analysis of DES-Y1-like data vectors. This work presents the first-ever end-to-end validation of a cluster abundance cosmological analysis on galaxy catalogue level simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗