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At least 973 records · Page 54

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

The Radio Fundamental Catalogue. I. Astrometry

We present the all-sky catalogue of absolute positions and estimates of correlated flux density of 21,942 compact radio sources determined from processing interferometric visibility data of virtually all VLBI observing sessions at 2 to 23~GHz from 72 programs suitable for absolute astrometry collected for 30 years. We used a novel technique of generation of a dataset of fused observables that allowed us to incorporate all available data in our analysis. The catalogue is the most complete and most precise to date. It forms the foundation and reference for positional astronomy, space geodesy, space navigation, population analysis of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and provides calibrators for phase-referencing for differential astrometry and VLBI astrophysical observations. Its accuracy was evaluated through a detailed accounting systematic errors, rigorous decimation tests, comparison of different datasets, and comparison with other catalogues. The catalogue samples preferentially the AGNs with a strong contemporary parsec-scale synchrotron emission. Its milliarcsecond level positional accuracy allows association of these AGNs with detections in a wide range of the electromagnetic spectrum from low-frequency radio to gamma-rays and high energy neutrinos. We describe the innovative data processing and calibration technique in full detail, report the in depth analysis of random and systematic positional errors, and provide the list of associations with large surveys at different wavelengths.

Astronomy↗

Randomized control trial of moderate dose vitamin D alters microbiota stability and metabolite networks in healthy adults

ABSTRACT Evidence indicates that both vitamin D and the gut microbiome are involved in the process of colon carcinogenesis. However, it is unclear what effects supplemental vitamin D 3 has on the gut microbiome and its metabolites in healthy adults. We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial to identify the acute and long-term microbiota structural and metabolite changes that occur in response to a moderate dose (4,000 IU) of vitamin D 3 for 12 weeks in healthy adults. Our results demonstrated a significant increase in serum 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25(OH)D) in the treatment group compared to placebo ( P < 0.0001). Vitamin D 3 significantly increased compositional similarity ( P < 0.0001) in the treatment group, and enriched members of the Bifidobacteriaceae family. We also identified a significant inverse relationship between the percent change in serum 25(OH)D and microbial stability in the treatment group ( R = −0.52, P < 0.019). Furthermore, vitamin D 3 supplementation resulted in notable metabolic shifts, in addition to resulting in a drastic rewiring of key gut microbial-metabolic associations. In conclusion, we show that a moderate dose of vitamin D 3 among healthy adults has unique acute and persistent effects on the fecal microbiota, and suggest novel mechanisms by which vitamin D may affect the host-microbiota relationship. IMPORTANCE Preventative measures to reduce the rise in early-onset colorectal cancer are of critical need. Both vitamin D, dietary and serum levels, and the gut microbiome are implicated in the etiology of colorectal cancer. By understanding the intimate relationship between vitamin D, the gut microbiome, and its metabolites, we may be able to identify key mechanisms that can be targeted for intervention, including inflammation and metabolic dysfunction. Furthermore, the similarity of vitamin D to cholesterol, which is metabolized by the gut microbiome, gives precedence to its ability to produce metabolites that can be further studied and leveraged for controlling colorectal cancer incidence and mortality.

Wyatt, Madhur↗

A micromirror array with annular partitioning for high-speed random-access axial focusing

Dynamic axial focusing functionality has recently experienced widespread incorporation in microscopy, augmented/virtual reality (AR/VR), adaptive optics and material processing. However, the limitations of existing varifocal tools continue to beset the performance capabilities and operating overhead of the optical systems that mobilize such functionality. The varifocal tools that are the least burdensome to operate (e.g. liquid crystal, elastomeric or optofluidic lenses) suffer from low (≈100 Hz) refresh rates. Conversely, the fastest devices sacrifice either critical capabilities such as their dwelling capacity (e.g. acoustic gradient lenses or monolithic micromechanical mirrors) or low operating overhead (e.g. deformable mirrors). Here, we present a general-purpose random-access axial focusing device that bridges these previously conflicting features of high speed, dwelling capacity and lightweight drive by employing low-rigidity micromirrors that exploit the robustness of defocusing phase profiles. Geometrically, the device consists of an 8.2 mm diameter array of piston-motion and 48-μm-pitch micromirror pixels that provide 2π phase shifting for wavelengths shorter than 1100 nm with 10–90% settling in 64.8 μs (i.e., 15.44 kHz refresh rate). The pixels are electrically partitioned into 32 rings for a driving scheme that enables phase-wrapped operation with circular symmetry and requires <30 V per channel. Optical experiments demonstrated the array’s wide focusing range with a measured ability to target 29 distinct resolvable depth planes. Overall, the features of the proposed array offer the potential for compact, straightforward methods of tackling bottlenecked applications, including high-throughput single-cell targeting in neurobiology and the delivery of dense 3D visual information in AR/VR.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of residual gas fraction estimation methods for cycle-to-cycle combustion variability analysis and modeling

Cycle-to-cycle combustion variability in spark-ignition engines during normal operation is mainly caused by random perturbations of the in-cylinder conditions such as the flow velocity field, homogeneity of the air-fuel distribution, spark energy discharge, and turbulence intensity of the flame front. Such perturbations translate into the variability of the energy released observed at the end of the combustion process. During normal operating conditions, the cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV) of the energy release behaves as random uncorrelated noise. However, during diluted combustion, in either the form of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) or excess air (lean operation), the CCV tends to increase as dilution increases. Moreover, when the ignition limit is reached at high dilution levels, the combustion CCV is exacerbated by sporadic occurrences of incomplete combustion events, and the uncorrelation assumption no longer holds. The low or null energy released by partial burns and misfires has an impact on the following combustion event due to the residual gas that carries burned and unburned gases, which contributes to the deterministic coupling between engine cycles. Many residual gas fraction estimation methods, however, only address the nominal case where complete combustion occurs and combustion events are uncorrelated. Here we evaluate the efficacy of such methods on capturing the effects of partial burns and misfires on the residual gas estimate for high-EGR operation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed based on their ability to generate cycle-to-cycle estimates. Finally, a comparison between the different estimation techniques is presented based on their usefulness for control-oriented modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bayesian tomography of high-dimensional on-chip biphoton frequency combs with randomized measurements

Abstract Owing in large part to the advent of integrated biphoton frequency combs, recent years have witnessed increased attention to quantum information processing in the frequency domain for its inherent high dimensionality and entanglement compatible with fiber-optic networks. Quantum state tomography of such states, however, has required complex and precise engineering of active frequency mixing operations, which are difficult to scale. To address these limitations, we propose a solution that employs a pulse shaper and electro-optic phase modulator to perform random operations instead of mixing in a prescribed manner. We successfully verify the entanglement and reconstruct the full density matrix of biphoton frequency combs generated from an on-chip Si 3 N 4 microring resonator in up to an 8 × 8-dimensional two-qudit Hilbert space, the highest dimension to date for frequency bins. More generally, our employed Bayesian statistical model can be tailored to a variety of quantum systems with restricted measurement capabilities, forming an opportunistic tomographic framework that utilizes all available data in an optimal way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multi-fidelity machine-learning with uncertainty quantification and Bayesian optimization for materials design: Application to ternary random alloys

We present a scale-bridging approach based on a multi-fidelity (MF) machine-learning (ML) framework leveraging Gaussian processes (GP) to fuse atomistic computational model predictions across multiple levels of fidelity. Through the posterior variance of the MFGP, our framework naturally enables uncertainty quantification, providing estimates of confidence in the predictions. We used density functional theory as high-fidelity prediction, while a ML interatomic potential is used as low-fidelity prediction. Practical materials’ design efficiency is demonstrated by reproducing the ternary composition dependence of a quantity of interest (bulk modulus) across the full aluminum–niobium–titanium ternary random alloy composition space. The MFGP is then coupled to a Bayesian optimization procedure, and the computational efficiency of this approach is demonstrated by performing an on-the-fly search for the global optimum of bulk modulus in the ternary composition space. The framework presented in this manuscript is the first application of MFGP to atomistic materials simulations fusing predictions between density functional theory and classical interatomic potential calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning to Predict Joint Performance in Epoxy Composites Based on Process Parameters

Polymer matrix composites are gaining popularity in the aerospace industry due to their high specific strength, fatigue properties, and processability. However, based on current FAA certification guidelines, manufacturers utilizing current state-of-the-art composites made with adhesive bonds commonly install redundant fasteners to guarantee the strength of these adhesively bonded composite parts. The number of fasteners in a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft is typically on the order of 105, which reduces manufacturing rate, increases cost tremendously, and reduces the advantage of the specific strength composites provide. Due to this, the Adhesive Free Bonding of Composites (AERoBOND) project at NASA Langley Research Center has developed a novel assembly process to manufacture complex composite parts without the use of adhesives and fasteners. However, optimization of the process is currently challenging due to the complex and interdependent process parameters. To assist with the optimization, four machine learning algorithms utilizing gradient boosting decision trees were created to provide predictions for the mechanical and characterization properties of the composite parts. Approximately 200 random states from each algorithm were tested, and the models from each state were isolated and analyzed based on their accuracy, a validation process, and their feature importance. This analysis concluded that the models created from the machine learning algorithms could accelerate a parametric study for the AERoBOND process by rapidly optimizing process parameters to achieve desired performance characteristics.

Brennen Michael Middleton↗

Machine Learning to Predict Joint Performance in Epoxy Composites Based on Process Parameters

Polymer matrix composites are gaining popularity in the aerospace industry due to their high specific strength, fatigue properties, and processability. However, based on current FAA certification guidelines, manufacturers utilizing current state-of-the art composites made with adhesive bonds commonly install redundant fasteners to guarantee the strength of these adhesively bonded composite parts.1,2 The number of fasteners in a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft is typically on the order of 105, which reduces manufacturing rate, increases cost tremendously, and reduces the advantage of the specific strength composites provide. Due to this, the Adhesive Free Bonding of Composites (AERoBOND) project at NASA Langley Research Center has developed a novel assembly process to manufacture complex composite parts without the use of adhesives and fasteners.1 However, optimization of the process is currently challenging due to the complex and interdependent process parameters. To assist with the optimization, four machine learning algorithms utilizing gradient boosting decision trees were created to provide predictions for the mechanical and characterization properties of the composite parts. Approximately 200 random states from each algorithm were tested, and the models from each state were isolated and analyzed based on their accuracy, a validation process, and their feature importance. This analysis concluded that the models created from the machine learning algorithms could accelerate a parametric study for the AERoBOND process by rapidly optimizing process parameters to achieve desired performance characteristics.

Brennen M Middleton↗

Application of coherence in fan noise studies

A study of fan noise was made by using the coherence function to obtain far field spectra that were coherent with the fan rotational rate. Choosing fan rotational rate as one of the two variables yielded new information about the far field noise generated during static fan testing. As a result of this coherent data processing, the inlet fan-tone noise present in static testing was determined to be mostly random when the rotor-alone and rotor-stator interaction tones were cut off. After the rotor-alone sound field was cut on, the sound pressure became coherent, and the angular extent of high coherence increased as fan speed was increased. In addition, the sound field was organized as a pattern of lobes whose amplitude varied slowly with time. Additional fan test results indicate that operating the fan with an inflow control device can partially reduce the fan-tone noise levels to those produced by coherent processing.

Balombin, J. R.↗

FPGA Sequencer for Radar Altimeter Applications

A sequencer for a radar altimeter provides accurate attitude information for a reliable soft landing of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). This is a field-programmable- gate-array (FPGA)-only implementation. A table loaded externally into the FPGA controls timing, processing, and decision structures. Radar is memory-less and does not use previous acquisitions to assist in the current acquisition. All cycles complete in exactly 50 milliseconds, regardless of range or whether a target was found. A RAM (random access memory) within the FPGA holds instructions for up to 15 sets. For each set, timing is run, echoes are processed, and a comparison is made. If a target is seen, more detailed processing is run on that set. If no target is seen, the next set is tried. When all sets have been run, the FPGA terminates and waits for the next 50-millisecond event. This setup simplifies testing and improves reliability. A single vertex chip does the work of an entire assembly. Output products require minor processing to become range and velocity. This technology is the heart of the Terminal Descent Sensor, which is an integral part of the Entry Decent and Landing system for MSL. In addition, it is a strong candidate for manned landings on Mars or the Moon.

Berkun, Andrew C.↗

Processing laser velocimeter high-speed burst counter data

The statistical calculations of the mean and potential bias errors are considered with respect to their applicability to the randomly sampled velocity data obtained from a laser velocimeter. Techniques for displaying the resulting data in the form of arrow plots, flow streamline plots, and contour maps are also discussed. A description is presented of the operation of a new hardware interface between the signal processing electronics and the computer. The interface has been constructed to make it possible to use recently developed data processing techniques for obtaining turbulent power spectra from laser velocimeter data. Additional capabilities which were built into the interface allow the measurement of the velocity vector for each particle passing through the laser velocimeter sample window. By processing the data with extended versions of the turbulent power spectra techniques, cross spectra, interactions between velocity magnitude fluctuations, and flow angle fluctuations may be investigated.

Meyers, J. F.↗

Search strategy effects on PN acquisition performance

The present paper focusses on 'random' and 'expanding window' PN acquisition search strategies and analytically develops the PN acquisition time statistics as functions of salient system parameters such as prediction SNR, detection and false alarm probabilities and a priori information on epoch location. The significance of this analysis is its general applicability to arbitrary postdetection processing schemes. Computed performance results account for the above salient parameters, wherein sequential detection is employed in conjunction with random and selected expanding window search strategies.

Weinberg, A.↗

Vehicle energy consumption estimation using large scale simulations and machine learning methods

Vehicle energy consumption and powertrain operations for future vehicle powertrain technologies are predicted through full-vehicle simulations using Autonomie, a simulation tool developed at Argonne National Laboratory. Over 1 million vehicles, with different powertrain types (conventional and numerous electrified powertrains) and component technologies (advanced engines, batteries, electrical machines, light weighting) are simulated for outputs including vehicle fuel economy and cost. Despite the ability of Autonomic to predict fuel economy given various combination of vehicle inputs, the full-vehicle simulation is very time-consuming. It takes approximately 84 h to simulate for 33,060 vehicles even using distributed computing on a cluster of 128 worker nodes. Moreover, Autonomic is unable to populate a continuous output space through simulation since it only yields outputs with discrete values instead of an input-output relation. This paper proposes a novel large-scale learning and prediction process (LSLPP) via machine learning approaches to answer the need for a continuous space of vehicle fuel economy and a more efficient simulation process. By learning in a supervised fashion to discover structures in data, the machine learning approaches seek to train a model that can explain the data with which we can perform prediction over unseen data. As such, we are able to accomplish analytic continuation on the current discrete space of simulation results. In addition, we present a random sampling -based numerosity reduction algorithm incorporated in LSLPP that reduces simulation runs and improves efficiency of data procurement. We analytically derive a theoretical bound in order to guarantee the effectiveness of our algorithm. We also compare random sampling to stratified sampling and suggest sampling strategies. A user-friendly tool is developed to support the process. Our experimental results confirm that the proposed LSLPP is able to greatly accelerate prediction and analysis of vehicle fuel economy. The output of this study is used by the US government to evaluate the impact of its R&D funding on energy security and CO 2 emission as well as for the setting of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Radio frequency mixing modules for superconducting qubit room temperature control systems

As the number of qubits in nascent quantum processing units increases, the connectorized RF (radio frequency) analog circuits used in first generation experiments become exceedingly complex. The physical size, cost, and electrical failure rate all become limiting factors in the extensibility of control systems. We have developed a series of compact RF mixing boards to address this challenge by integrating I/Q quadrature mixing, intermediate frequency/LO (local oscillator)/RF power level adjustments, and direct current bias fine tuning on a 40 × 80 mm 2 four-layer printed circuit board with electromagnetic interference shielding. The RF mixing module is designed to work with RF and LO frequencies between 2.5 and 8.5 GHz. The typical image rejection and adjacent channel isolation are measured to be ~27 dBc and ~50 dB. By scanning the drive phase in a loopback test, the module short-term amplitude and phase linearity are typically measured to be 5 ×10 -4 (V pp /V mean ) and 1 ×10 -3 radian (pk-pk). The operation of the RF mixing board was validated by integrating it into the room temperature control system of a superconducting quantum processor and executing randomized benchmarking characterization of single and two qubit gates. We measured a single-qubit process infidelity of 9.3(3) × 10 -4 and a two-qubit process infidelity of 2.7(1) × 10 -2 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A modified electrolyte non-random two-liquid model with analytical expression for excess enthalpy: Application to the MEA-H 2 O-CO 2 system

We report accurate thermodynamic properties of electrolyte systems are critical for the design and operation of many chemical processes. A comprehensive description of the thermodynamic framework for multi-electrolyte mixed solvent systems is presented, where the parameter structure of the symmetric electrolyte-Non-Random Two Liquid (e-NRTL) model is reformulated and a thermodynamically consistent and analytically derived formulation for the excess enthalpy is developed from the e-NRTL model. The refined parameter structure of the e-NRTL model avoids numerical singularities of the analytical formulation for the excess enthalpy in the absence of ionic species and extends the derived excess enthalpy formulation to non-electrolyte systems. The thermodynamic framework is demonstrated for the MEA-H 2 O-CO 2 case study using experimental data on thermodynamic quantities for the binary MEA-H 2 O system and the ternary MEA-H 2 O-CO 2 system. The model is implemented in Pyomo and will be available for release in the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) computational platform.

Monoethanolamine↗