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At least 973 records · Page 54

Finite-Test-Case Development to Demonstrate Logical Integrity of Software in DRPS

Reactor protection system (RPS) in nuclear power plant (NPP) is in the process of digitalization in response to advanced features of digital systems. In this context, software integrity in the RPS becomes an important issue since it may cause common-cause failure. Therefore, to guarantee the safety of NPPs, the integrity of the software need to be properly demonstrated or assessed. There are three typical approaches for software reliability quantification: software reliability growth model (SRGM), Bayesian belief network (BBN), and test-based method. Basically, SRGM is difficult to apply to the safety-critical software because not only sufficient failure sets are unavailable but consequence of system failure is also unacceptable. Then the result obtained through the BBN model may have large uncertainty, so it produces difficulties in integrity demonstration of safety-critical software. Thus, the BBN result need to be complemented or verified by test-based method. Currently, for the integrity demonstration of safety-critical software, black-box test which feeds inputs and examines just outputs whether they succeeded or failed is considered based on trajectory-form-of-input (a series of successive values for the input variables that occur during the operation of the software over time). Usually these trajectory-inputs are randomly sampled from operational profile. In this approach, however, there are some practical difficulties. Therefore, we proposed a new test method for safety-critical software in digitalized reactor protection system (DRPS). The main contents described in this paper are about basic concepts under development of finite-test-cases by which the integrity of the software logic can be verified. It should be noted that the influence of the environments, such as operating system and other hardware, are not considered since the method focuses on software logic only. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

Partition coefficient↗

Method to Investigate Cognitive Aging Effects in Nuclear Operations Using the Rancor Microworld Simulator

Many nuclear power plant (NPP) operators are close to, or at retirement age. Since NPP operators are responsible for tasks that engage different and complex cognitive abilities, human factors researchers recently called for the need to examine cognitive aging effects and potential interactions with modernized control rooms. One way control rooms are being modernized is by replacing paper-based procedures with computer-based procedures (CBPs). This paper outlines a method for testing preference and usability of three types of CBPs as a function of age, in simulated NPP operations. The Rancor Microworld Simulator will be used, which mimics an NPP control room, allowing novices to learn to perform operator tasks quickly. The experiment will have two independent variables: age (young and old) and CBP-type (Type 1, Type 2, and Type 3). The three types of CBPs vary in levels of embedded instrumentation and controls. Adults aged 18–25 years (young group) and =60 years (older group) will be recruited from the general population. The dependent variables will be preference and usability metrics via survey and simulator logs. All participants will perform two scenario types (startup and loss of feedwater operations) and will be randomly assigned to one type of CBP to guide them through the scenario. Analyses of variance (ANOVAs) will be used to determine whether there is a main effect of age and any age x CBP-type interactions on the preference and usability dependent variables.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Fusion of Multiple Models for Improving Gross Primary Production Estimation With Eddy Covariance Data Based on Machine Learning

Abstract Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) represents the magnitude of CO 2 uptake through vegetation photosynthesis, and is a key variable for carbon cycles between the biosphere and atmosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models have been widely used to estimate GPP for its physiological mechanisms and availability of data acquisition and implementation, yet each individual GPP model has exhibited large uncertainties due to input errors and model structure, and further studies of systematic validation, comparison, and fusion of those models with eddy covariance (EC) site data across diverse ecosystem types are still needed in order to further improve GPP estimation. We here compared and fused five GPP models (VPM, EC‐LUE, GOL‐PEM, CHJ, and C‐Fix) across eight ecosystems based on FLUXNET2015 data set using the ensemble methods of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF) separately. Our results showed that for individual models, EC‐LUE gave a better performance to capture interannual variability of GPP than other models, followed by VPM and GLO‐PEM, while CHJ and C‐Fix were more limited in their estimation performance. We found RF and SVM were superior to BMA on merging individual models at various plant functional types (PFTs) and at the scale of individual sites. On the basis of individual models, the fusion methods of BMA, SVM, and RF were examined by a five‐fold cross validation for each ecosystem type, and each method successfully improved the average accuracy of estimation by 8%, 18%, and 19%, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere

The interannual variability of monthly mean 500 mb heights in a 15-year sample of observed data is compared to the variance expected from sampling errors associated with high-frequency fluctuations using the analysis of variance approach. The monthly mean 'signal' stands out significantly from the 'noise' over a substantial fraction of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter. The expected spectrum of variance at very low frequencies is assumed to be white at frequencies lower than per (30 days) rather than the per (96 days) cutoff used by Madden. This difference is justified by observing that the effective time between independent samples T(0) is relatively insensitive to changes in the maximum lag over which the local autocorrelation is integrated to calculate T(0). Further non-randomness in the variance of 500 mb heights is evidenced by the correlation between monthly mean height and contemporaneous daily variability.

Shukla, J.↗

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Whiteman, David N.↗

Consistent Evaluation of ACOS-GOSAT, BESD-SCIAMACHY, CarbonTracker, and MACC Through Comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO2 data record. Harmonizing satellite CO2 measurements is particularly important since the differences in instruments, observing geometries, sampling strategies, etc. imbue different measurement characteristics in the various satellite CO2 data products. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry-air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) for Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space, ACOS b3.5) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) (Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS, BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO2 mole fraction fields and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) CO2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations (GGG2012/2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 parts per million vs. TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single observation errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. We quantify how satellite error drops with data averaging by interpreting according to (error(sup 2) equals a(sup 2) plus b(sup 2) divided by n (with n being the number of observations averaged, a the systematic (correlated) errors, and b the random (uncorrelated) errors). a and b are estimated by satellites, coincidence criteria, and hemisphere. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of 0.3 parts per million, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 parts per million at many stations. We find that GOSAT and CT2013b under-predict the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46 and 53 degrees North latitude, MACC over-predicts between 26 and 37 degrees North latitude, and CT2013b under-predicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a data set or model lags another data set in time. We find that the GOSAT measurements improve the seasonal cycle phase substantially over the prior while SCIAMACHY measurements improve the phase significantly for just two of seven sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder_125HR (CT2013b) and Darwin (MACC). We compare the variability within 1 day between TCCON and models in June-July-August; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10-50 percent the variability of TCCON at different stations and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g., the SH for models and 45-67 degrees North latitude for GOSAT and CT2013b.

ACOS-GOSAT↗

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States have experienced increasingly severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage production for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models, even considering abandoning their businesses altogether. The study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address stakeholder concerns of the efficacy of existing remotely sensed rangeland production estimation platforms and explore possible early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key rangeland platforms, the Rangeland Production Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) and used in-situ data to statistically validate their efficacy. RAP outperformed RPMS in estimating in-situ biomass and was therefore used in our climate modeling. Our study performed a random forest analysis, sampling 1500 points across the study area, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climatic variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, palmer drought severity index, snow water equivalent, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. After analysis, our study determined that vapor pressure deficit is a key indicator in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our study recommends the use of RAP in estimating potential forage, with caution for its tendency to overestimate. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climatic factors in determining forage production and allows them to assist landowners in planning for future drought.

Addie Gonzalez↗

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamic Response of a Semiactive Suspension System with Hysteretic Nonlinear Energy Sink Based on Random Excitation by means of Computer Simulation

This paper aims to investigate the property and behavior of the hysteretic nonlinear energy sink (HNES) coupled to a half vehicle system which is a nine-degree-of-freedom, nonlinear, and semiactive suspension system in order to improve the ride comfort and increase the stability in shock mitigation by using the computer simulation method. The HNES model is a semiactive suspension device, which comprises the famous Bouc–Wen (B-W) model employed to describe the force produced by both the purely hysteretic spring and linear elastic spring of potentially negative stiffness connected in parallel, for the half vehicle system. Nine nonlinear motion equations of the half vehicle system are derived in terms of the seven displacements and the two dimensionless hysteretic variables, which are integrated numerically by employing the direct time integration method for studying both the variables of vertical displacements, velocities, accelerations, chassis pitch angle, and the ride comfort and driver safety, respectively, based on the bump and random road inputs of the pseudoexcitation method as excitation signal. Simulation results show that, compared with the HNES model and the magnetorheological (MR) model coupled to the half vehicle system, the ride comfort and stability have been evidently improved. A successful validation process has been performed, which indicated that both the ride comfort and driver safety properties of the HNES model coupled to half vehicle significantly improved.

Chen, Hui↗

Interfacial Exchange Phenomena Driven by Ferromagnetic Domains

Abstract Interfacial proximity effects in antiferromagnetic/ferromagnetic (AFM/FM) bilayers control the exchange‐bias (EB) phenomena exploited in most spintronic devices, although still is lack of full understanding. Discordant results, including different exchange‐bias field ( H E ), coercivity ( H C ), or blocking temperature ( T B ) found even in similar systems, are usually ascribed to uncontrolled parameters, namely dissimilar interfacial defects, structure, and thicknesses. Here, it is shown in the very same sample that the magnetic domain structure during the magnetization reversal of the FM layer controls those mentioned effects. Simultaneous transport and vectorial‐resolved magnetic measurements performed in a V 2 O 3 /Co system during warming after different field cooling (FC) procedures exhibit a strong dependence on the FC angle and the domain structure of the FM layer. Remarkably, magnetization reversal analysis reveals 35 K of variation in T B and up to a factor of two in H E . These observations can be explained within the random‐field model for the interfacial exchange coupling with a fixed AFM domain structure in contact with a variable (angle‐dependent) FM domain structure. The results highlight the importance of the domain structure and magnetization reversal of the FM layer (not previously considered) in the EB phenomena, with potential to tailor interfacial effects in future spintronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modelling intergranular and transgranular micro-cracking in polycrystalline materials

Presented is a grain boundary formulation for intergranular and transgranular micro-cracking in three-dimensional polycrystalline aggregates.. The formulation is based on the displacement and stress boundary integral equations of solid mechanics and it has the advantage of expressing the polycrystalline problem in terms of grain boundary variables only. The individual grains within the polycrystalline morphology are modelled as generally anisotropic linear elastic domains with random spatial orientation. Transgranular micro-cracking is assumed to occur along specific cleavage planes, whose orientation in space within the grains depend upon the crystallographic lattice. Both intergranular and transgranular micro-cracking are modelled using suitably defined cohesive laws, whose parameters characterise the behaviour of the two mechanisms. The algorithm developed to track the inter/transgranular micro-cracking history is presented and discussed. Several numerical tests involving pseudo-3D and fully 3D morphologies are performed and analysed. The presented numerical results show that the developed formulation is capable of tracking the initiation and evolution of both intergranular and transgranular cracking as well as their competition, thus providing a useful tool for the study of damage micro-mechanics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deformable Image Registration for Adaptive Radiation Therapy of Head and Neck Cancer: Accuracy and Precision in the Presence of Tumor Changes

Purpose: To compare deformable image registration (DIR) accuracy and precision for normal and tumor tissues in head and neck cancer patients during the course of radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Thirteen patients with oropharyngeal tumors, who underwent submucosal implantation of small gold markers (average 6, range 4-10) around the tumor and were treated with RT were retrospectively selected. Two observers identified 15 anatomical features (landmarks) representative of normal tissues in the planning computed tomography (pCT) scan and in weekly cone beam CTs (CBCTs). Gold markers were digitally removed after semiautomatic identification in pCTs and CBCTs. Subsequently, landmarks and gold markers on pCT were propagated to CBCTs, using a b-spline-based DIR and, for comparison, rigid registration (RR). To account for observer variability, the pair-wise difference analysis of variance method was applied. DIR accuracy (systematic error) and precision (random error) for landmarks and gold markers were quantified. Time trend of the precisions for RR and DIR over the weekly CBCTs were evaluated. Results: DIR accuracies were submillimeter and similar for normal and tumor tissue. DIR precision (1 SD) on the other hand was significantly different (P<.01), with 2.2 mm vector length in normal tissue versus 3.3 mm in tumor tissue. No significant time trend in DIR precision was found for normal tissue, whereas in tumor, DIR precision was significantly (P<.009) degraded during the course of treatment by 0.21 mm/week. Conclusions: DIR for tumor registration proved to be less precise than that for normal tissues due to limited contrast and complex non-elastic tumor response. Caution should therefore be exercised when applying DIR for tumor changes in adaptive procedures.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Comparing three generations of D-Wave quantum annealers for minor embedded combinatorial optimization problems

Abstract Quantum annealing (QA) is a novel type of analog computation that aims to use quantum mechanical fluctuations to search for optimal solutions of Ising problems. QA in the transverse Ising model, implemented on D-Wave quantum processing units, are available as cloud computing resources. In this study we report concise benchmarks across three generations of D-Wave quantum annealers, consisting of four different devices, for the NP-hard discrete combinatorial optimization problems unweighted maximum clique and unweighted maximum cut on random graphs. The Ising, or equivalently quadratic unconstrained binary optimization, formulation of these problems do not require auxiliary variables for order reduction, and their overall structure and weights are not highly variable, which makes these problems simple test cases to understand the sampling capability of current D-Wave quantum annealers. All-to-all minor embeddings of size 52, with relatively uniform chain lengths, are used for a direct comparison across the Chimera, Pegasus, and Zephyr device topologies. A grid-search over annealing times and the minor embedding chain strengths is performed in order to determine the level of reasonable performance for each device and problem type. Experiment metrics that are reported are approximation ratios for non-broken chain samples, chain break proportions, and time-to-solution for the maximum clique problem instances. How fairly the quantum annealers sample optimal maximum cliques, for instances which contain multiple maximum cliques, is quantified using entropy of the measured ground state distributions. The newest generation of quantum annealing hardware, which has a Zephyr hardware connectivity, performed the best overall with respect to approximation ratios and chain break frequencies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fluid-driven fractures in granular media: Insights from numerical investigations

We investigate the mechanisms of opening-mode fracture initiation in granular media. The study is based on a simulation of grain-scale fluid-grain interactions through a coupled numerical approach in which the discrete element method is used to solve for the mechanics of a solid granular medium, and computational fluid dynamics is used to model fluid flow and drag forces. In this work, we present benchmark problems with analytical solutions and validate this numerical model against experiments on a viscous-drag-driven cavity in the literature. Additional simulation results show fracture initiation mechanisms in a random granular packing subjected to constant boundary stresses and to fluid injection with a localized source. The dimensionless variable $F_s/F_{sk}$ (ratio of seepage force $F_s$ and skeletal force $F_{sk}$) incorporates the impacts of physical properties and injection parameters including fluid viscosity, injection velocity, grain size, and effective stresses, and it has been used as a criterion separating regimes of fluid invasion and drag-driven fracture opening. Our simulation results show that $F_s/F_{sk}$ in combination with $τ_1$ (ratio of diffusion time from hydromechanical coupling and injection time) serves as a prediction of fracture opening within granular packing. We suggest a simple criterion ($F_s/F_{sk}$ > 1 or $τ_1$ > 0.17) that is valid for various types of granular media and injection conditions to determine if fracture opening will occur. Among other applications, this study is useful to predict the initiation and propagation of fractures in natural sediments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of Different Oseltamivir Regimens on Treating Influenza A Virus Infection and Resistance Emergence: Insights from a Modelling Study

Several studies have proven oseltamivir to be efficient in reducing influenza viral titer and symptom intensity. However, the usefulness of oseltamivir can be compromised by the emergence and spread of drug-resistant virus. The selective pressure exerted by different oseltamivir therapy regimens have received little attention. Combining models of drug pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, viral kinetics and symptom dynamics, we explored the efficacy of oseltamivir in reducing both symptoms (symptom efficacy) and viral load (virological efficacy). We simulated samples of 1000 subjects using previously estimated between-subject variability in viral and symptom dynamic parameters to describe the observed heterogeneity in a patient population. We simulated random mutations conferring resistance to oseltamivir. We explored the effect of therapy initiation time, dose, intake frequency and therapy duration on influenza infection, illness dynamics, and emergence of viral resistance. Symptom and virological efficacies were strongly associated with therapy initiation time. The proportion of subjects shedding resistant virus was 27-fold higher when prophylaxis was initiated during the incubation period compared with no treatment. It fell to below 1% when treatment was initiated after symptom onset for twice-a-day intakes. Lower doses and prophylaxis regimens led to lower efficacies and increased risk of resistance emergence. We conclude that prophylaxis initiated during the incubation period is the main factor leading to resistance emergence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Tracking variations in the alpha activity in an electroencephalogram

The problem of tracking Alpha voltage variations in an electroencephalogram is discussed. This problem is important in encephalographic studies of sleep and effects of different stimuli on the brain. Very often the Alpha voltage is tracked by passing the EEG signal through a bandpass filter centered at the Alpha frequency, which hopefully will filter out unwanted noise from the Alpha activity. Some alternative digital techniques are suggested and their performance is compared with the standard technique. These digital techniques can be used in an environment where an electroencephalograph is interfaced with a small digital computer via an A/D convertor. They have the advantage that statistical statements about their variability can sometimes be made so that the effect sought can be assessed correctly in the presence of random fluctuations.

Prabhu, K. S.↗

A study of the effect of forcing function characteristics on human operator dynamics in manual control

The effect of the spectrum of the forcing function on the human pilot dynamics in manual control was investigated. A simple compensatory tracking experiment was conducted, where the controlled element was of a second-order dynamics and the forcing function was a random noise having a dominant frequency. The dominant frequency and the power of the forcing function were two variable parameters during the experiment. The results show that the human pilot describing functions are dependent not only on the dynamics of the controlled element, but also on the characteristics of the forcing function. This suggests that the human pilot behavior should be expressed by the transfer function taking into consideration his ability to sense and predict the forcing function.

Washizu, K.↗