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DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

The Paris Agreement long‐term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub‐selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time‐lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e457. doi: 10.1002/wcc.457 This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application

James, Rachel↗

DOE OSTI2012

Influence of construction and demolition waste management on the environmental impact of buildings

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Environmental impacts of different demolition practices. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer 'Top-down' approach to the Life Cycle Analysis methodology. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results based on real buildings measurements and demolition contractor activities. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Not every type of selective demolition brings about environmental benefits. - Abstract: The purpose of this study is to quantify comparable environmental impacts within a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) perspective, for buildings in which the first (Materials) and last (End of Life) life cycle stages are adjusted to several waste/material management options. Unlike most LCAs, the approach is 'top-down' rather than 'bottom-up', which usually involves large amounts of data and the use of specific software applications. This approach is considered appropriate for a limited but expedient LCA designed to compare the environmental impacts of different life cycle options. Present results, based on real buildings measurements and demolition contractor activities, show that shallow, superficial, selective demolition may not result in reduced environmental impacts. Calculations actually show an increase (generally less than 5%) in most impact categories for the Materials and End of Life stages because of extra transportation needs. However, core material separation in demolition operations and its recycling and/or reuse does bring environmental benefits. A reduction of around 77% has been estimated in the climate change impact category, 57% in acidification potential and 81% in the summer smog impact (for the life cycle stages referred).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the detectability of strong lensing in near-infrared surveys

We present new lensing frequency estimates for existing and forthcoming deep near-infrared surveys, including those from JWST and VISTA. The estimates are based on the JAdes extragalactic Ultradeep Artificial Realisations (JAGUAR) galaxy catalogue accounting for the full photometry and morphologies for each galaxy. Due to the limited area of the JAGUAR simulations, they are less suited to wide-area surveys; however, we also present extrapolations to the surveys carried out by Euclid and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. The methodology does not make assumptions about the nature of the lens itself and probes a wide range of lens masses. The lenses and sources are selected from the same catalogue and extend the analysis from the visible bands into the near-infrared. After generating realistic simulated lensed sources and selecting those that are detectable with SNR > 20, we verify the lensing frequency expectations against published lens samples selected in the visible, finding them to be broadly consistent. We find that JWST could yield ~65 lensed systems in COSMOS-Web, of which ~25 per cent have source redshifts >4. Deeper, narrower programs (e.g. JADES-Medium) will probe more typical source galaxies (in flux and mass) but will find fewer systems (~25). Of the surveys we investigate, we find 55–80 per cent have detectable multiple imaging. Forthcoming NIR surveys will likely reveal new and diverse strong lens systems including lensed sources that are at higher redshift (JWST) and dustier, more massive and older (Euclid NISP) than those typically detected in the corresponding visible surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modeling of Cloud Microphysics: Can We Do Better?

Representation of cloud microphysics is a key aspect of simulating clouds. From the early days of cloud modeling, numerical models have relied on an Eulerian approach for all cloud and thermodynamic and microphysics variables. Over time the sophistication of microphysics schemes has steadily increased, from simple representations of bulk masses of cloud and rain in each grid cell, to including different ice particle types and bulk hydrometeor concentrations, to complex schemes referred to as bin or spectral schemes that explicitly evolve the hydrometeor size distributions within each model grid cell. As computational resources grow, there is a clear trend toward wider use of bin schemes, including their use as benchmarks to develop and test simplified bulk schemes. We argue that continuing on this path brings fundamental challenges difficult to overcome. The Lagrangian particle-based probabilistic approach is a practical alternative in which the myriad of cloud and precipitation particles present in a natural cloud is represented by a judiciously selected ensemble of point particles called superdroplets or superparticles. Here, the advantages of the Lagrangian particle-based approach when compared to the Eulerian bin methodology are explained, and the prospects of applying the method to more comprehensive cloud simulations—for instance, targeting deep convection or frontal cloud systems—are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mitigation of Aerosol Impacts of Ash Deposition and Emissions from Coal Combustion (Final Technical Report)

This project was selected under FOA-0001989 Area of Interest (AOI) 2 – Power Plant Component Improvement. The objective of this AOI was to test and validate technologies and methodologies that can improve the efficiency, reliability, and/or flexibility of individual power plant components in existing plants. The aerosol mitigation technology comprises injection of sorbent into the boiler through injection lances using a positive-pressure blower. The injected sorbent interacts with flame-vaporized aerosolforming components produced during combustion reducing the abundance of sub-micrometer (< 1 micron) particles and fireside ash deposits in the boiler. The primary objective of this project was to validate a sorbent-based technology for mitigating fireside heat transfer surface fouling-related challenges in a full-scale coal-fired power generation facility, thereby, improving plant performance and reliability.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Discovering Strong Gravitational Lenses in the Dark Energy Survey with Interactive Machine Learning and Crowd-sourced Inspection with Space Warps

We conduct a search for strong gravitational lenses in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 imaging data. We implement a pre-trained Vision Transformer (ViT) for our machine learning (ML) architecture and adopt interactive machine learning to construct a training sample with multiple classes to address common types of false positives. Our ML model reduces ∼236 million DES cutout images to 22,564 targets of interest, including ∼85% of previously reported galaxy–galaxy lens candidates discovered in DES. These targets were visually inspected by citizen scientists, who ruled out ∼90% as false positives. Of the remaining 2618 candidates, 149 were expert-classified as “definite” lenses and 516 as “probable” lenses, for a total of 665 systems, with 147 of these candidates being newly identified. Additionally, we trained a second ViT to find double-source plane lens systems, finding at least one double-source system. Our main ViT excels at identifying galaxy–galaxy lenses, consistently assigning high scores to candidates with high expert assessments. The top 800 ViT-scored images include ∼100 of our “definite” lens candidates. This selection is an order of magnitude higher in purity than previous convolutional neural-network-based lens searches and demonstrates the feasibility of applying our methodology for discovering large samples of lenses in future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

NLS cycle 1 and NLS 2 base heating technical notes. Appendix 3: Preliminary cycle 1 NLS base heating environments. Cycle 1 NLS base heating environments. NLS 2 650K STME base heating environments

A preliminary analysis of National Launch System ascent plume induced base heating environments has been completed to support the Induced Environments Panel's objective to assist in maturing the NLS vehicle (1.5 stage and heavy launch lift vehicle) design. Environments during ascent have been determined from this analysis for a few selected locations on the engine nozzles and base heat shield for both vehicles. The environments reflect early summer 1991 configurations and performance data and conservative methodology. A more complete and thorough analysis is under way to update these environments for the cycle 1 review in January 1992.

Bender, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

Hammond, Wesley↗

NASA NTRS1997

Probabilistic Micromechanics and Macromechanics for Ceramic Matrix Composites

The properties of ceramic matrix composites (CMC's) are known to display a considerable amount of scatter due to variations in fiber/matrix properties, interphase properties, interphase bonding, amount of matrix voids, and many geometry- or fabrication-related parameters, such as ply thickness and ply orientation. This paper summarizes preliminary studies in which formal probabilistic descriptions of the material-behavior- and fabrication-related parameters were incorporated into micromechanics and macromechanics for CMC'S. In this process two existing methodologies, namely CMC micromechanics and macromechanics analysis and a fast probability integration (FPI) technique are synergistically coupled to obtain the probabilistic composite behavior or response. Preliminary results in the form of cumulative probability distributions and information on the probability sensitivities of the response to primitive variables for a unidirectional silicon carbide/reaction-bonded silicon nitride (SiC/RBSN) CMC are presented. The cumulative distribution functions are computed for composite moduli, thermal expansion coefficients, thermal conductivities, and longitudinal tensile strength at room temperature. The variations in the constituent properties that directly affect these composite properties are accounted for via assumed probabilistic distributions. Collectively, the results show that the present technique provides valuable information about the composite properties and sensitivity factors, which is useful to design or test engineers. Furthermore, the present methodology is computationally more efficient than a standard Monte-Carlo simulation technique; and the agreement between the two solutions is excellent, as shown via select examples.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Developing Analogy Cost Estimates for Space Missions

The analogy approach in cost estimation combines actual cost data from similar existing systems, activities, or items with adjustments for a new project's technical, physical or programmatic differences to derive a cost estimate for the new system. This method is normally used early in a project cycle when there is insufficient design/cost data to use as a basis for (or insufficient time to perform) a detailed engineering cost estimate. The major limitation of this method is that it relies on the judgment and experience of the analyst/estimator. The analyst must ensure that the best analogy or analogies have been selected, and that appropriate adjustments have been made. While analogy costing is common, there is a dearth of advice in the literature on the 'adjustment methodology', especially for hardware projects. This paper discusses some potential approaches that can improve rigor and repeatability in the analogy costing process.

space mission cost↗

DOE OSTI2018

AUTOMATIC LIMIT SURFACE SEARCH FOR PWR TRANSIENTS BY RELAP5-3D/RAVEN CODES

Deterministic safety analysis of nuclear power plants can be improved by applying modern algorithms and codes exploiting machine learning and parallel computing. In this paper we show the application of some of these advanced methodologies for the determination of limit surfaces. A limit surface is an n-dimensional surface describing the plant status, e.g. identifying, as function of selected plant parameters, the boundaries between failed and safe conditions for the core fuel. Using the RELAP5-3D system thermal-hydraulic code coupled to the RAVEN statistical-analysis code, we show how to apply machine-learning algorithms (near-neighbor, support-vector machine, etc.) for determining relevant limit surfaces for PWR station-blackout and loss of offsite power. As a first step, a set of training simulations is run to sample the nuclear power plant responses. Those calculations are used to train a Reduced-Order-Model (ROM), which RAVEN then uses for determining an approximated limit surface. Verification of the guessed limit surface is then automatically performed and calculation is terminated depending by the chosen convergence criteria. The combination of High Performance Computing (HPC) and ROMs allow a remarkable reduction of the time required for the surface determination. RAVEN performs also the automatic data collection of the output of the numerous runs, thus easing the workload of the safety analyst. Finally, using RAVEN “Ensamble Forward” sampling technique, we show how to inform the limit surface calculations with some of the code and input uncertainties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Geospatial Framework for Estimating Household Electricity Demand for Urban Infrastructure Planning in Select African Countries

Power infrastructure planning in Sub-Saharan Africa requires accurate power demand estimates. However, these estimates are lacking in most countries which compounds the effects of unreliable electricity supply. This study utilizes a methodology that was used to forecast power demand in Uganda and extends it to other African countries of interest; Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. The goal of the study is to create spatial power demand maps that can be used for power infrastructure planning. The proposed approach utilizes a global population database at a fine resolution of 1 km2 as the foundational input data. The analysis indicates a deficit of about 22,630 MW (South Africa), 20,213 MW (Nigeria), 4,153 MW (Kenya), and 2,508 MW (Uganda) compared to the current installed capacity to meet the highest power demand scenario.

Kotikot, Susan M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2009

Hollow Fiber Space Suit Water Membrane Evaporator Development for Lunar Missions

The Space Suit Water Membrane Evaporator (SWME) is the baseline heat rejection technology selected for development for the Constellation lunar suit. The Hollow Fiber (HoFi) SWME is being considered for service in the Constellation Space Suit Element (CSSE) Portable Life Support Subsystem (PLSS) to provide cooling to the thermal loop through water evaporation to the vacuum of space. Previous work described the test methodology and planning to compare the test performance of three commercially available hollow fiber materials as alternatives to the sheet membrane prototype for SWME: 1) porous hydrophobic polypropylene, 2) porous hydrophobic polysulfone, and 3) ion exchange through nonporous hydrophilic modified Nafion. Contamination tests were performed to probe for sensitivities of the candidate SWME elements to organics and non-volative inorganics expected to be found in the target feedwater source, i.e., potable water provided by the vehicle. The resulting presence of precipitate in the coolant water could plug pores and tube channels and affect the SWME performance. From this prior work, a commercial porous hydrophobic hollow fiber was selected to satisfy both the sensitivity question and the need to provide 800 W of heat rejection. This paper describes the trade studies, the design methodology, and the hollow fiber test data used to design a full

Bue, Grant C.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Fabrication and Modeling of High-Efficiency Front Junction N-Type Silicon Solar Cells With Tunnel Oxide Passivating Back Contact

This paper reports on in-depth understanding, modeling, and fabrication of 23.8% efficient 4 cm 2 n-type Float Zone (FZ) silicon cells with a selective boron emitter and photolithography contact on front and tunnel oxide passivating contact on the back. Tunnel oxide passivating contact composed of a very thin chemically grown silicon oxide (~15 Å) capped with plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) grown 20 nm n + poly Si gave excellent surface passivation and carrier selectivity with very low saturation current density (~5 fA/cm 2 ). A high-quality boron selective emitter was formed using ion implantation and solid source diffusion to minimize metal recombination and emitter saturation current density. Process optimization resulted in a cell V oc of 712 mV, J sc of 41.2 mA/cm 2 , and FF of 0.811. Here, a simple methodology is used to model these cells which replaces tunnel oxide passivating contact region by electron and hole recombination velocities extracted from measured saturation current density of tunnel oxide passivating contact region and analysis. Using this approach and two-dimensional device modeling gave an excellent match between the measured and simulated cell parameters and efficiency, supporting excellent passivation and carrier selectivity of these contacts. Extended simulations showed that 26% cell efficiency can be achieved with this cell structure by further optimization of wafer quality, emitter profile, and contact design

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2022

Maldives Climate: Monitoring Shoreline Changes and Island Loss in Response to Climate Change

Global sea level rise as a result of climate change continues to pose a critical threat to coastal ecosystems and populations. The archipelagic country of the Maldives is of critical concern due to being one of the lowest lying areas in the world. The development of reclaimed land in the Maldives by sand dredging has been a frequent response to both increasing sea levels and population increase. Such disturbance can lead to increased sedimentation off the coast and negatively impact coastal environments. Remote sensing tools such as satellite imagery have proved to be an effective tool in observing coastal changes in response to climate change and development. NASA DEVELOP created a methodology to analyze both water quality and shoreline erosion in the Maldives utilizing satellite imagery. Methods relied on open-source software such as QGIS and Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Satellite Imagery from PlanetScope, Landsat 8 Operational Land Instrument (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI), and Aqua & Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiospectrometer (MODIS) to analyze the changes in shorelines and assess water quality of select atolls within the Maldives. Findings show less shoreline change in developed parts of the island and more shoreline change in natural parts of the island. Additionally, water quality varies throughout the year and our data did not indicate seasonal trends. The methodology will be replicated to continue to monitor island erosion and water quality with the Maldives and will be applicable to other island and coastal systems.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2017

Selection of High Temperature Organic Materials for Future Stirling Convertors

In the future higher temperature Stirling convertors for improved efficiency and performance, various high temperature organic materials have been demanded as essential components for their unique properties and functions such as bonding, potting, sealing, thread locking, insulation, and lubrication. The higher temperature capabilities would also allow current state-of-the-art (SOA) convertors to be used in additional missions, particularly those that require a Venus flyby for a gravity assist. Stirling convertor radioisotope generators have been developed for potential future space applications including Lunar/Mars surface power or a variety of spacecraft and vehicles, especially with a long mission cycle, sometimes up to 17 years, such as deep space exploration. Thus, performance, durability, and reliability of the organics should be critically evaluated in terms of comprehensive structure-process-service environment relations based on the potential mission specifications. The initial efforts in screening the high temperature candidates focused on the most susceptible organics, such as adhesive, potting compound, o-ring, shrink tubing, and thread locker materials in conjunction with commercially available materials. More systematic and practical test methodologies that were developed and optimized based on the extensive organic evaluations and validations performed for various Stirling convertor types were employed to determine thermal stability, outgassing, and material compatibility of the selected organic candidates against their functional requirements. Processing and fabrication conditions and procedures were also optimized. This paper presents results of the three-step candidate evaluation processes, their application limitations, and the final selection recommendations.

Organics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for in-band transitions in the candidate superdeformed band in Si 28

Background: Superdeformed (SD) bands are suggested by theory around Ca 40 and in lighter alpha-conjugate nuclei such as Mg 24 , Si 28 , and S 32 . Such predictions originate from a number of theoretical models including mean-field models and antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD) calculations. While SD bands have been identified in Ca 40 and its near neighbors, evidence of their existence in the lighter, midshell nuclei is circumstantial at best. Additionally, the key evidence of superdeformation would be the observation of transitions with high B ( E 2 ) transition strengths connecting states in a rotational sequence. This is challenging information to obtain since the bands lie at a high excitation energy and competition from out-of-band decay is dominant. Purpose: The purpose of the present study is to establish a new methodology to circumvent the difficulties in identifying and quantifying in-band transitions through directly populating candidate states in the SD band in Si 28 through inelastic alpha scattering, selecting such states with a spectrometer, and measuring their gamma-ray decay with a large array of high-purity germanium detectors, allowing direct access to electromagnetic transition strengths. Methods: Excited states in Si 28 were populated in the Si 28 ( α , α ' ) reaction using a 130-MeV He 4 beam from the K140 AVF cyclotron at the Research Center for Nuclear Physics. Outgoing alpha particles were analyzed using the Grand Raiden spectrometer positioned at an angle of 9 . 1 ° to favor the population of states with J ≈ 4 . Coincident gamma rays were detected with the CAGRA array of 12 HPGe clover detectors augmented by a set of four large LaBr 3 detectors. Results: Data analysis showed that it was possible to identify additional low-energy transitions in competition with high-energy decays from excited states in Si 28 in the vicinity of 10 MeV. However, while the candidate 4 + SD state at 10.944 MeV was populated, a 1148-keV transition to the candidate 2 + SD state at 9.796 MeV was not observed, and only an upper limit for its transition strength of B ( E 2 ) < 43 W.u. could be established. This contradicts AMD predictions of ≈ 200 W.u. for such a transition. Conclusion: The present study strongly rejects the hypothesis that the candidate set of states identified in Si 28 represents an SD band, which demonstrates the potential of the methodology devised here.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗