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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating particle-in-cell kinetic plasma simulations via reduced-order modeling of space-charge dynamics using dynamic mode decomposition

We present a data-driven reduced-order modeling of the space-charge dynamics for electromagnetic particle-in-cell (EMPIC) plasma simulations based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). The dynamics of the charged particles in kinetic plasma simulations such as EMPIC is manifested through the plasma current density defined along the edges of the spatial mesh. We showcase the efficacy of DMD in modeling the time evolution of current density through a low-dimensional feature space. Not only do such DMD based predictive reduced-order models help accelerate EMPIC simulations, they also have the potential to facilitate investigative analysis and control applications. Here, we demonstrate the proposed DMD-EMPIC scheme for reduced-order modeling of current density and speedup in EMPIC simulations involving electron beam under the influence of magnetic field, virtual cathode oscillations, and backward wave oscillator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel path to runaway electron mitigation via deuterium injection and current-driven MHD instability

Relativistic electron (RE) beams at high current density (low safety factor, qa) yet very low free-electron density accessed with D2 secondary injection in the DIII-D and JET tokamak are found to exhibit large-scale MHD instabilities that benignly terminate the RE beam. In JET, this technique has enabled termination of MA-level RE currents without measurable first-wall heating. This scenario thus offers an unexpected alternate pathway to achieve RE mitigation without collisional dissipation. Benign termination is explained by two synergistic effects. First, during the MHD-driven RE loss events both experiment and MHD orbit-loss modeling supports a significant increase in the wetted area of the RE loss. Second, as previously identified at JET and DIII-D, the fast kink loss timescale precludes RE beam regeneration and the resulting dangerous conversion of magnetic to RE kinetic energy. During the termination, the RE kinetic energy is lost to the wall, but the current fully transfers to the cold bulk thus enabling benign Ohmic dissipation of the magnetic energy on longer timescales via a conventional current quench. Hydrogenic (D2) secondary injection is found to be the only injected species that enables access to the benign termination. D2 injection: 1) facilitates access to low qa in existing devices (via reduced collisionality & resistivity), 2) minimizes the RE avalanche by ‘purging’ the high-Z atoms from the RE beam, 3) drives recombination of the background plasma, reducing the density and Alfven time, thus accelerating the MHD growth. Furthermore, this phenomenon is found to be accessible when crossing the low qa stability boundary with rising current, falling toroidal field, or contracting minor radius - the latter being the expected scenario for vertically unstable RE beams in ITER. While unexpected, this path scales favorably to fusion-grade tokamaks and offers a novel RE mitigation scenario in principle accessible with the day-one disruption mitigation system (DMS) of ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Coupling the Solar-Wind/IMF to the Ionosphere through the High Latitude Cusps

Magnetic merging is a primary means for coupling energy from the solar wind into the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The location and nature of the process remain as open questions. By correlating measurements form diverse locations and using large-scale MHD models to put the measurements in context, it is possible to constrain out interpretations of the global and meso-scale dynamics of magnetic merging. Recent evidence demonstrates that merging often occurs at high latitudes in the vicinity of the cusps. The location is in part controlled by the clock angle in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Y-Z plane. In fact, B(sub Y) bifurcated the cusp relative to source regions. The newly opened field lines may couple to the ionosphere at MLT locations of as much as 3 hr away from local noon. On the other side of noon the cusp may be connected to merging sites in the opposite hemisphere. In face, the small convection cell is generally driven by opposite hemisphere merging. B(sub X) controls the timing of the interaction and merging sites in each hemisphere, which may respond to planar features in the IMF at different times. Correlation times are variable and are controlled by the dynamics of the tilt of the interplanetary electric field phase plane. The orientation of the phase plane may change significantly on time scales of tens of minutes. Merging is temporally variable and may be occurring at multiple sites simultaneously. Accelerated electrons from the merging process excite optical signatures at the foot of the newly opened field lines. All-sky photometer observations of 557.7 nm emissions in the cusp region provide a "television picture" of the merging process and may be used to infer the temporal and spatial variability of merging, tied to variations in the IMF.

Maynard, Nelson C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of edge turbulence codes against the TCV-X21 diverted L-mode reference case

Self-consistent full-size turbulent-transport simulations of the divertor and scrape-off-layer (SOL) of existing tokamaks have recently become feasible. This enables the direct comparison of turbulence simulations against experimental measurements. In this work, we perform a series of diverted ohmic L-mode discharges on the tokamak à configuration variable (TCV) tokamak, building a first-of-a-kind dataset for the validation of edge turbulence models. This dataset, referred to as TCV-X21, contains measurements from five diagnostic systems from the outboard midplane (OMP) to the divertor targets—giving a total of 45 one- and two-dimensional comparison observables in two toroidal magnetic field directions. The experimental dataset is used to validate three flux-driven 3D fluid-turbulence models—GBS, GRILLIX and TOKAM3X. With each model, we perform simulations of the TCV-X21 scenario, individually tuning the particle and power source rates to achieve a reasonable match of the upstream separatrix value of density and electron temperature. We find that the simulations match the experimental profiles for most observables at the OMP—both in terms of profile shape and absolute magnitude—while a comparatively poorer agreement is found towards the divertor targets. The match between simulation and experiment is seen to be sensitive to the value of the resistivity, the heat conductivities, the power injection rate and the choice of sheath boundary conditions. Additionally, despite targeting a sheath-limited regime, the discrepancy between simulations and experiment also suggests that the neutral dynamics should be included. The results of this validation show that turbulence models are able to perform simulations of existing devices and achieve reasonable agreement with experimental measurements. Where disagreement is found, the validation helps to identify how the models can be improved. By publicly releasing the experimental dataset and validation analysis, this work should help to guide and accelerate the development of predictive turbulence simulations of the edge and SOL.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Plants mediate soil organic matter decomposition in response to sea level rise

Abstract Tidal marshes have a large capacity for producing and storing organic matter, making their role in the global carbon budget disproportionate to land area. Most of the organic matter stored in these systems is in soils where it contributes 2–5 times more to surface accretion than an equal mass of minerals. Soil organic matter ( SOM ) sequestration is the primary process by which tidal marshes become perched high in the tidal frame, decreasing their vulnerability to accelerated relative sea level rise ( RSLR ). Plant growth responses to RSLR are well understood and represented in century‐scale forecast models of soil surface elevation change. We understand far less about the response of SOM decomposition to accelerated RSLR . Here we quantified the effects of flooding depth and duration on SOM decomposition by exposing planted and unplanted field‐based mesocosms to experimentally manipulated relative sea level over two consecutive growing seasons. SOM decomposition was quantified as CO 2 efflux, with plant‐ and SOM ‐derived CO 2 separated via δ 13 CO 2 . Despite the dominant paradigm that decomposition rates are inversely related to flooding, SOM decomposition in the absence of plants was not sensitive to flooding depth and duration. The presence of plants had a dramatic effect on SOM decomposition, increasing SOM ‐derived CO 2 flux by up to 267% and 125% (in 2012 and 2013, respectively) compared to unplanted controls in the two growing seasons. Furthermore, plant stimulation of SOM decomposition was strongly and positively related to plant biomass and in particular aboveground biomass. We conclude that SOM decomposition rates are not directly driven by relative sea level and its effect on oxygen diffusion through soil, but indirectly by plant responses to relative sea level. If this result applies more generally to tidal wetlands, it has important implications for models of SOM accumulation and surface elevation change in response to accelerated RSLR .

Mueller, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2012

PROTOPLASMA - Proton-driven plasma-wakefield experiment at Fermilab: Stages and approach

Generation of TeV-scale electron beams using conventional RF technology appears expensive for building the next generation of colliders. Proton-driven plasma-wakefield acceleration of electrons promises an alternative route to generate TeV-scale electron beams using existing proton machines. PROTOPLASMA is the proposed R and D project at Fermilab that plans to use a proton beam driven plasma-wakefield to accelerate electrons. The project is planned in stages with the project's path guided by simulations. First, a 60-120 GeV proton beam will be injected into 1-2 meters of plasma to observe selfmodulation instability in the proton beam. Next, an injected 5 MeV electron beam will be accelerated by the plasma. In this paper, we report on the basic project plan and outline our staged approach. We report on first simulation results that show self-modulation of a proton bunch and discuss beam optics requirements and other limits.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Power Systems Operation with Newly Electrified and Flexible Loads

The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is a multi-year study designed to analyze the impacts of widespread electrification in the U.S. energy system. In this webinar we present the detailed power systems operational analysis from the final report in the EFS series. For this analysis, we simulate multiple 2050 power systems for the conterminous United States to assess how variations in the magnitude and shape of electricity demand driven by electrification, and the extent of load participation to more-actively provide grid services, might impact the hourly operation, operational costs, and emissions of various power systems in 2050. The impacts of electrification and demand flexibility are overlayed across systems with significantly greater penetrations of variable renewable energy than today. Overall, we find that the high electrification scenarios envisioned in the EFS with significant VRE penetration (66% of annual national generation) can be operated to meet future increased levels of electrified demand. We also find that demand-side flexibility can enhance operational efficiency and reduce overall annual production costs by $5-$10 billion. The complementary relationship between flexible electric vehicle charging loads and solar generation is particularly pronounced, but in the absence of demand-side flexibility electrification can lead to increased wind and solar curtailment. By helping to reduce renewable curtailment, flexibility can also reduce power sector CO2 emissions. The analysis highlights the value of increased integration and coordination of demand- and supply-side resources in future electric system planning and operations—particularly under high electrification futures.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Design of the Universal Neutron Irradiator

SHINE medical isotopes is developing a novel method to produce the medical isotope Mo-99, which is the parent of Tc-99m, the most widely used diagnostic compound in nuclear medicine. This method utilizes U-235 fission in a subcritical liquid target solution, driven by an accelerator-based neutron source that is based on a deuterium-tritium reaction in a gaseous target. In this approach, the neutron-generating target is surrounded by uranyl sulfate (low-enriched uranium); fission in the uranium salt solution efficiently produces the desired Mo-99, as well as other fission products. After irradiation, Mo-99 is separated and the uranyl sulfate solution can be irradiated again to produce Mo-99. This allows the solution to be recycled for a very long time and significantly reduces the amount of associated nuclear waste. SHINE has received U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval to construct an Mo-99 production facility based on this method. In order to produce Mo-99 efficiently, the solution should be as close as possible to criticality. Because the solution is over moderated, any precipitation could push the solution to become critical and thereby hard to control. One of the possible precipitation scenarios is the formation of uranyl peroxide. Under irradiation, water decomposes into the products of radiolysis, some of which will form peroxide. To prevent precipitation, one has to develop a way to decompose the peroxide before it can react with uranium and form hard-to-dissolve precipitates. To study peroxide formation and develop methods to prevent precipitation, we are developing an experiment capable of mimicking radiation conditions in the SHINE system. This report describes the irradiation setup we designed to irradiate a small volume of uranyl sulfate solution for the duration of one SHINE irradiation (~6 days) at the relevant fission power (~0.5 W/cc)

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving the Pulsed-Power Driven Inertial Fusion Energy Standoff Problem (Abbreviated Final Report)

The standoff problem in pulsed-power driven IFE (Inertial Fusion Energy) refers to the problem of electrically connecting a fusion target with the driver in a way that preserves the driver/target interface in the presence of a large fusion energy release (100’s of megajoules to 1000 megajoules). High yield fusion drivers for stockpile stewardship applications have similar concerns, but without the complication of the high repetition rate needed for energy production. All proposed IFE or high yield systems have the challenge of protecting the reactor vessel and driver from the energy release, but pulsed power drivers have the additional challenge of establishing an electrical connection in a way that does not create excessive debris or require costly/massive structures that must be expendable. Fortunately, there are conceptual solutions in the form of very low mass transmission lines, usually in the form of wires or foils, since very little mass is needed to overcome the magnetic forces driving the transmission lines apart or provide a low resistance pathway given the short pulse duration of the driver. Several important aspects of the standoff problem were analyzed in the course of this LDRD project. Conceptual means of introducing the low mass transmission lines into the reactor chamber were proposed, including analysis of methods to retain the power flow gap between the electrodes in the presence of the chamber environment. The energy losses due to ohmic dissipation and magnetic acceleration of the low mass transmission lines were evaluated for candidate driver pulses and different transmission line masses, and the fluence of x-ray and neutron energy on the persistent power flow structures that must survive the pulse of energy were evaluated. Finally, means of rapidly pumping down the chamber were explored as a way to return the system to low pressure following the multi-atmosphere post-pulse pressure rise. The overall conclusion from the analysis is that, while the reactor environment creates stressful conditions for a low mass transmission line standoff system, there are concepts expending 10 kg or less of electrode mass each pulse with the potential to mitigate the stresses and successfully drive fusion targets. Whether such a system could lead to a practical and economical fusion reactor would require extensive research and development beyond the scope of the feasibility study.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Neutron production using a pyroelectric driven target coupled with a gated field ionization source

A palm sized, portable neutron source would be useful for widespread implementation of detection systems for shielded, special nuclear material. We present progress towards the development of the components for an ultracompact neutron generator using a pulsed, meso-scale field ionization source, a deuterated (or tritiated) titanium target driven by a negative high voltage lithium tantalate crystal. Neutron production from integrated tests using an ion source with a single, biased tungsten tip and a 3 Multiplication-Sign 1 cm, vacuum insulated crystal with a plastic deuterated target are presented. Component testing of the ion source with a single tip produces up to 3 nA of current. Dielectric insulation of the lithium tantalate crystals appears to reduce flashover, which should improve the robustness. The field emission losses from a 3 cm diameter crystal with a plastic target and 6 cm diameter crystal with a metal target are compared.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulations of radiatively cooled magnetic reconnection driven by pulsed power

Magnetic reconnection is an important process in astrophysical environments, as it reconfigures magnetic field topology and converts magnetic energy into thermal and kinetic energy. In extreme astrophysical systems, such as black hole coronae and pulsar magnetospheres, radiative cooling modifies the energy partition by radiating away internal energy, which can lead to the radiative collapse of the reconnection layer. In this paper, we perform two- and three-dimensional simulations to model the MARZ (Magnetic Reconnection on Z) experiments, which are designed to access cooling rates in the laboratory necessary to investigate reconnection in a previously unexplored radiatively cooled regime. These simulations are performed in GORGON, an Eulerian two-temperature resistive magnetohydrodynamic code, which models the experimental geometry comprising two exploding wire arrays driven by 20 MA of current on the Z machine (Sandia National Laboratories). Radiative losses are implemented using non-local thermodynamic equilibrium tables computed using the atomic code Spk, and we probe the effects of radiation transport by implementing both a local radiation loss model and P 1/3 multi-group radiation transport. The load produces highly collisional, super-Alfvénic (Alfvén Mach number M A ≈ 1.5), supersonic (Sonic Mach number M S ≈ 4–5) strongly driven plasma flows which generate an elongated reconnection layer (Aspect Ratio L/δ≈100 , Lundquist number S L ≈ 400). The reconnection layer undergoes radiative collapse when the radiative losses exceed the rates of ohmic and compressional heating (cooling rate/hydrodynamic transit rate = τ$^{–1}_{cool}$/τ$^{–1}_{H}$ ≈100); this generates a cold strongly compressed current sheet, leading to an accelerated reconnection rate, consistent with theoretical predictions. Lastly, the current sheet is also unstable to the plasmoid instability, but the magnetic islands are extinguished by strong radiative cooling before ejection from the layer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

The development of the radio frequency driven negative ion source for neutral beam injectors (invited)

Large and powerful negative hydrogen ion sources are required for the neutral beam injection (NBI) systems of future fusion devices. Simplicity and maintenance-free operation favors RF sources, which are developed intensively at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik (IPP) since many years. The negative hydrogen ions are generated by caesium-enhanced surface conversion of atoms and positive ions on the plasma grid surface. With a small scale prototype the required high ion current density and the low fraction of co-extracted electrons at low pressure as well as stable pulses up to 1 h could be demonstrated. The modular design allows extension to large source dimensions. This has led to the decision to choose RF sources for the NBI of the international fusion reactor, ITER. As an intermediate step towards the full size ITER source at IPP, the development will be continued with a half-size source on the new ELISE testbed. This will enable to gain experience for the first time with negative hydrogen ion beams from RF sources of these dimensions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporally-consistent koopman autoencoders for forecasting dynamical systems

Absence of sufficiently high-quality data often poses a key challenge in data-driven modeling of high-dimensional spatio-temporal dynamical systems. Koopman Autoencoders (KAEs) harness the expressivity of deep neural networks (DNNs), the dimension reduction capabilities of autoencoders, and the spectral properties of the Koopman operator to learn a reduced-order feature space with simpler, linear dynamics. However, the effectiveness of KAEs is hindered by limited and noisy training datasets, leading to poor generalizability. To address this, we introduce the Temporally-Consistent Koopman Autoencoder (tcKAE), designed to generate accurate long-term predictions even with limited and noisy training data. This is achieved through a consistency regularization term that enforces prediction coherence across different time steps, thus enhancing the robustness and generalizability of tcKAE over existing models. We provide analytical justification for this approach based on Koopman spectral theory and empirically demonstrate tcKAE’s superior performance over state-of-the-art KAE models across a variety of test cases, including simple pendulum oscillations, kinetic plasma, and fluid flow data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chromaticity compensation of a ghost collider

The GHOST collider final focus system is a pure quadrupole-drift beamline targeting ¿* = 2 mm at four serial interaction points, with peak ¿-functions reaching ~65 km in the final triplet. Beam tracking simulations reveal that a nominal bunch develops a pronounced C-shape in longitu- dinal phase space at IP1, with ¿¿ growing from 0.15 mm to ~2.3 mm — a factor of ~15× increase that directly re- duces luminosity. The mechanism is identified as chromat- ically amplified betatron path length: off-momentum par- ticles acquire enlarged betatron amplitudes in the high-¿ final triplet, generating excess path length via the geometric ¿¿ = - 1/2 ¿ (¿'2 + ¿'2) ¿¿ integral. Within the monoenergetic Balandin framework, ¿2¿2 with ¿ = - 1/2 ¿ ¿ ¿¿ dominates ¿2¿2 by over four million times; the full beam ¿¿ is a fur- ther factor of ~27 larger, driven by ¿¿ -induced chromatic amplitude growth. Phase-advance scans confirm that ¿¿ is insensitive to the apochromatic (¿ ˜ 0) condition. When combined with the geometric hourglass effect, this distor- tion poses a challenge to maximizing luminosity within the current lattice design.

Gamage, B. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator ↗
DOE OSTI2011

Microwaves and particle accelerators: a fundamental link

John Cockcroft's splitting of the atom and Ernest Lawrence's invention of the cyclotron in the first half of the twentieth century ushered in the grand era of ever higher energy particle accelerators to probe deeper into matter. It also forged a link, bonding scientific discovery with technological innovation that continues today in the twenty first century. The development of radar and high power vacuum electronics, especially microwave power tubes like the magnetrons and the klystrons in the pre-second world war era, was instrumental in the rapid development of circular and linear charged particle accelerators in the second half of the twentieth century. We had harnessed the powerful microwave radio-frequency sources from few tens of MHz to up to 90 GHz spanning L-band to W-band frequencies. Simultaneously in the second half of the twentieth century, lasers began to offer very first opportunities of controlling charged particles at smaller resolutions on the scale of wavelengths of visible light. We also witnessed in this period the emergence of the photon and neutron sciences driven by accelerators built-by-design producing tailored and ultra-bright pulses of bright photons and neutrons to probe structure and function of matter from aggregate to individual molecular and atomic scales in unexplored territories in material and life sciences. As we enter the twenty first century, the race for ever higher energies, brightness and luminosity to probe atto-metric and atto-second domains of the ultra-small structures and ultra-fast processes continues. These developments depend crucially on yet further advancements in the production and control of high power and high frequency microwaves and light sources, often intricately coupled in their operation to the high energy beams themselves. We give a glimpse of the recent developments and innovations in the electromagnetic production and control of charged particle beams in the service of science and society. (author)

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Concepts for the magnetic design of the MITICA neutral beam test facility ion accelerator

The megavolt ITER injector concept advancement neutral injector test facility will be constituted by a RF-driven negative ion source and by an electrostatic Accelerator, designed to produce a negative Ion with a specific energy up to 1 MeV. The beam is then neutralized in order to obtain a focused 17 MW neutral beam. The magnetic configuration inside the accelerator is of crucial importance for the achievement of a good beam efficiency, with the early deflection of the co-extracted and stripped electrons, and also of the required beam optic quality, with the correction of undesired ion beamlet deflections. Several alternative magnetic design concepts have been considered, comparing in detail the magnetic and beam optics simulation results, evidencing the advantages and drawbacks of each solution both from the physics and engineering point of view.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Advanced Modeling of Ions in Solutions, on Surfaces, and in Biological Environments (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The research supported by this grant focused on modeling liquid water from basic microscopic theory and on developing advanced methodologies for molecular simulation and electronic structure calculation of large and disordered systems. Water is arguably the most important molecule on earth: without it there would be no life, as we know it. Water does not behave as a simple liquid. Understanding its unique and anomalous properties at the molecular level has been the focus of intense study during the entire last century and still is a major goal of research today. To address the problem we adopted a multipronged approach that included methodological and algorithmic developments as well as simulations of important model systems. We made progress on several key issues. (i) We implemented accurate electronic structure schemes for modeling water from quantum mechanical theory that make accessible in simulations processes driven by formation and breaking of chemical bonds. We studied in this way neat bulk water and simple solvated ions. We could understand, in particular, why hydronium, i.e. the positive water ion, diffuses faster than its negative counterpart, the hydroxyl, solving a 200-year-old ionic mystery of water, as reported in a news article featuring our study on Chemistry World, the magazine of the Royal Society of Chemistry (U.K.). (ii) Using advanced statistical mechanical techniques we studied water in the deeply undercooled regime, which may hold the clue to understanding many of the water anomalies. These conditions are currently only accessible to simulations based on empirical force fields. We found that deeply undercooled water, as described by the popular force field ST2, possesses a secondary critical point, below which it would spontaneously separate into two liquids, one of low-density (LDL) and one of high-density (HDL), much in the same way in which water and oil phase-separate at room temperature. The secondary critical point is supported indirectly by many experiments, but rapid ice nucleation has so far hindered direct observation. In related studies we gained new insight on the connection of the two metastable liquids with the two corresponding amorphous ice phases, LDA and HDA, which are observed experimentally. (iii) We developed and implemented several new algorithms for computing the electronic structure of large systems and to accelerate the calculation of electron exchange energies. We applied these methodologies to model nanomaterials, such as nanoribbons and nanoflakes, and to study water absorption and splitting on nanomaterials. (iv) We developed new local order descriptors. (v) In the last year of the project we developed a methodology based on deep neural networks to construct model interatomic potentials that can accurately reproduce ab-initio quantum mechanical simulations at the computational cost of empirical force fields. These potentials will make possible to access the size and time scales that are currently only accessible with empirical force fields without loosing the predictive power of ab-initio simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven method for electric vehicle charging demand analysis: Case study in Virginia

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the U.S. will be accelerated by the historic $7.5 billion public investments in EV charging infrastructure. Careful analysis of EV charging demands plays a vital role in understanding the energy requirements, power grid impact, and smart charging management opportunities of EVs. To this end, this paper develops a data-driven trip-chaining-based modeling framework including five steps: Trip data acquisition and preprocessing, EV adoption modeling, travel itinerary synthesis, EV charging demand simulation and EV load profile generation. The developed analysis framework was demonstrated using real-world data for one region in Virginia, U.S. The results show that the proposed modeling framework can work effectively. For the study region in 2040, the predicted number of plug-in EVs is 470,114, resulting in a weekly charging demand of 38,078,127 kWh (55% home, 9% work, and 36% public) in September and 45,920,358 kWh (61% home, 9% work, and 30% public) in February.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗