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DOE OSTI2017

User Guidelines and Best Practices for CASL VUQ Analysis Using Dakota

Sandia’s Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to enhance understanding of risk, improve products, and assess simulation credibility. In its simplest mode, Dakota can automate typical parameter variation studies through a generic interface to a physics-based computational model. This can lend efficiency and rigor to manual parameter perturbation studies already being conducted by analysts. However, Dakota also delivers advanced parametric analysis techniques enabling design exploration, optimization, model calibration, risk analysis, and quantification of margins and uncertainty with such models. It directly supports verification and validation activities. Dakota algorithms enrich complex science and engineering models, enabling an analyst to answer crucial questions of - Sensitivity: Which are the most important input factors or parameters entering the simulation, and how do they influence key outputs?; Uncertainty: What is the uncertainty or variability in simulation output, given uncertainties in input parameters? How safe, reliable, robust, or variable is my system? (Quantification of margins and uncertainty, QMU); Optimization: What parameter values yield the best performing design or operating condition, given constraints? Calibration: What models and/or parameters best match experimental data? In general, Dakota is the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) delivery vehicle for verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VUQ) algorithms. It permits ready application of the VUQ methods described above to simulation codes by CASL researchers, code developers, and application engineers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive for Manuscript Titled "Evaluation of a Coupled Surface–Subsurface Hydrologic Model Using Dense Water‑Level Sensors in a Mixed Urban–Rural Watershed"

This archive provides scripts, input files, and datasets used for the implementation and evaluation of a fully coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic model in the Neches River Basin, southeast Texas. The study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to simulate coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic processes over a mixed urban–rural watershed and evaluates model performance using a dense network of 136 in situ water-level sensors, nine U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges, and SSEBop-derived evapotranspiration estimates during the period October 2014–June 2024. The workflow is implemented primarily in Python 3 using the Watershed Workflow package. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed using open-source software such as Anaconda JupyterLab or Visual Studio Code. Other data files include TXT, CSV, XML, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, HDF5, and ExodusII files, which can be processed using the provided Python scripts. ATS input files are provided in XML format and can be edited using any commonly used text editor. This archive contains: *Scripts and input files used to generate the ATS model setup, including watershed discretization, mesh generation, parameter mapping, and model configuration. *Jupyter notebooks used for preprocessing observational data, evaluating streamflow, water levels, and evapotranspiration, computing performance metrics, and generating the figures presented in the manuscript. *ATS simulation outputs and processed observational datasets, including OneRain and DD6 water-level sensors, USGS streamflow observations, GIS data, and supporting spatial datasets used throughout the study.

Dense water-level sensor network↗

DOE OSTI2016

Sensitivity analysis of simulated SOA loadings using a variance-based statistical approach: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SOA

We investigate the sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) loadings simulated by a regional chemical transport model to 7 selected tunable model parameters: 4 involving emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds, anthropogenic semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organics (SIVOCs), and NOx, 2 involving dry deposition of SOA precursor gases, and one involving particle-phase transformation of SOA to low volatility. We adopt a quasi-Monte Carlo sampling approach to effectively sample the high-dimensional parameter space, and perform a 250 member ensemble of simulations using a regional model, accounting for some of the latest advances in SOA treatments based on our recent work. We then conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the generalized linear model method to study the responses of simulated SOA loadings to the tunable parameters. Analysis of SOA variance from all 250 simulations shows that the volatility transformation parameter, which controls whether particle-phase transformation of SOA from semi-volatile SOA to non-volatile is on or off, is the dominant contributor to variance of simulated surface-level daytime SOA (65% domain average contribution). We also split the simulations into 2 subsets of 125 each, depending on whether the volatility transformation is turned on/off. For each subset, the SOA variances are dominated by the parameters involving biogenic VOC and anthropogenic SIVOC emissions. Furthermore, biogenic VOC emissions have a larger contribution to SOA variance when the SOA transformation to non-volatile is on, while anthropogenic SIVOC emissions have a larger contribution when the transformation is off. NOx contributes less than 4.3% to SOA variance, and this low contribution is mainly attributed to dominance of intermediate to high NOx conditions throughout the simulated domain. The two parameters related to dry deposition of SOA precursor gases also have very low contributions to SOA variance. This study highlights the large sensitivity of SOA loadings to the particle-phase transformation of SOA volatility, which is neglected in most previous models.

Shrivastava, Manish↗

NASA NTRS1985

A large-scale computer facility for computational aerodynamics

As a result of advances related to the combination of computer system technology and numerical modeling, computational aerodynamics has emerged as an essential element in aerospace vehicle design methodology. NASA has, therefore, initiated the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation (NAS) Program with the objective to provide a basis for further advances in the modeling of aerodynamic flowfields. The Program is concerned with the development of a leading-edge, large-scale computer facility. This facility is to be made available to Government agencies, industry, and universities as a necessary element in ensuring continuing leadership in computational aerodynamics and related disciplines. Attention is given to the requirements for computational aerodynamics, the principal specific goals of the NAS Program, the high-speed processor subsystem, the workstation subsystem, the support processing subsystem, the graphics subsystem, the mass storage subsystem, the long-haul communication subsystem, the high-speed data-network subsystem, and software.

Bailey, F. R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark Modeling and Simulation of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 Using SAM

The Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) was a 400 MW thermal powered, oxide-fueled, liquid sodium cooled test reactor, built to assist development and testing of advanced fuels and materials for fast breeder reactors. In July 1986, a series of unprotected Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) transients were performed in FFTF as part of the Passive Safety Testing (PST) program. The LOFWOS Test #13, which was initiated at 50% power and 100% flow with the pump pony motors left off, has been chosen as a benchmark case by IAEA to support collaborative efforts within international partnerships on the validation of simulation tools and models in the area of sodium fast reactor passive safety in an IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP), launched in October 2018. The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR safety analysis. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. To participate the IAEA CRP and enhance the SAM validation base for advanced reactor transient safety analysis, benchmark simulations of the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13 are performed using the SAM code. In this first phase of the validation effort, the thermal-hydraulic behavior of the reactor system is the focus and the reactor kinetics is not considered in the SAM FFTF model. Instead, the results of Argonne’s neutronics calculations are directly used, including the power shape of the active core region and the power history during the transient. The simulation results of FFTF at steady state agreed well with the measured data from the test. During the transient, reasonably good agreement were also obtained. Future work to improve the model will focus on introducing the reactivity predictions into the model, as well as better understanding or resolving the current discrepancies with the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2017

DART: Recent Advances in Remote Sensing Data Modeling With Atmosphere, Polarization, and Chlorophyll Fluorescence

To better understand the life-essential cycles and processes of our planet and to further develop remote sensing (RS) technology, there is an increasing need for models that simulate the radiative budget (RB) and RS acquisitions of urban and natural landscapes using physical approaches and considering the three-dimensional (3-D) architecture of Earth surfaces. Discrete anisotropic radiative transfer (DART) is one of the most comprehensive physically based 3-D models of Earth-atmosphere radiative transfer, covering the spectral domain from ultraviolet to thermal infrared wavelengths. It simulates the optical 3-DRB and optical signals of proximal, aerial, and satellite imaging spectrometers and laser scanners, for any urban and/or natural landscapes and for any experimental and instrumental configurations. It is freely available for research and teaching activities. In this paper, we briefly introduce DART theory and present recent advances in simulated sensors (LiDAR and cameras with finite field of view) and modeling mechanisms (atmosphere, specular reflectance with polarization and chlorophyll fluorescence). A case study demonstrating a novel application of DART to investigate urban landscapes is also presented.

Gastellu-Etchegorry, Jean-Phil↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Physics-Based Combustion Model for Engine Knock Prediction

The objective of this project is to improve the prediction of engine knock by developing a new combustion modeling framework. Engine knock is a limiting factor to constrain the increase of fuel efficiency for spark ignition (SI) engines in most passenger cars. Efforts to increase fuel efficiency, increasing the compression ratio or downsizing, lead to the increase in the tendency of the knock occurrence. The knock is an undesired ignition of the end-gas, unburned fuel/air mixture ahead of the spark-ignited premixed flame, resulting in rapid in-cylinder pressure rises and engine damages. The combustion modeling framework developed in this project can consider turbulence-chemistry interactions during end-gas ignition, while using a reasonably detailed chemical mechanism developed for ignition and combustion reactions under engine relevant conditions, and the subtle characteristics of spark-ignited flame propagation. It is developed in the context of large eddy simulation (LES), which can capture stochastic in-cylinder processes. The developed model is incorporated into a commercial software for engine simulation, CONVERGE CFD, as a user defined function, and validated. Engine knock and knock-free experiments as well as direct numerical simulation (DNS) of end-gas ignition in homogeneous turbulence are performed to help model development and provide data sets for model validation. With further validation, the developed model is expected to advance the predictive capability for engine knock simulations and thus contribute to improving the fuel efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Physics-Based Combustion Model for Engine Knock Prediction

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Baseline Assessment of TREAT for Modeling and Analysis Needs

TREAT is an air-cooled, graphite moderated, thermal, heterogeneous test facility designed to evaluate reactor fuels and structural materials under conditions simulating various types of nuclear excursions and transient undercooling situations that could occur in a nuclear reactor. After 21 years in a standby mode, TREAT is being re-activated to revive transient testing capabilities. Given the time elapsed and the concurrent loss of operating experience, current generation and advanced computational methods are being applied to begin TREAT modeling and simulation prior to renewed at-power operations. Such methods have limited value in predicting the behavior of TREAT without proper validation. Hence, the U.S. DOE has developed a number of programs to support development of benchmarks for both critical and transient operations. Extensive effort has been expended at INL to collect detailed descriptions, drawings and specifications for all aspects of TREAT, and to resolve conflicting data found through this process. This report provides a collection of these data, with updated figures that are significantly more readable than historic drawings and illustrations, compositions, and dimensions based on the best available sources. This document is not nor should it be considered to be a benchmark report. Rather, it is intended to provide one-stop shopping, to the extent possible, for other work that seeks to prepare detailed, accurate models of the core and its components. Given the nature of the variety of historic documents available and the loss of institutional memory, the only completely accurate database of TREAT data is TREAT itself. Unfortunately, disassembly of TREAT for inspection, assay, and measurement is highly unlikely. Hence the data provided herein is intended serve as a best-estimate substitute.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of an Airspace Simulation and Modeling Tool for Enhanced Spectrum Management

The emergence of new aerial vehicles into the National Airspace System creates an increased demand for aeronautical communications to support aviation operations. However, the issue of spectrum scarcity remains an ever-present concern, and the growing demand cannot be supported using existing spectrum allocation strategies. As a result, a new spectrum management approach is required, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating advanced concepts to modernize the management and use of aviation spectrum by leveraging the latest advancements in wireless communications, big data and machine learning. This research proposes an autonomous spectrum allocation concept, which allocates communications resources, such as spectrum and power, based on the predicted communications and air traffic demands throughout the airspace, as opposed to the use of fixed allocations as is done today. This approach will result in improved spectrum utilization efficiency and enhanced airspace capacity. The autonomous spectrum allocation concept decomposes into three research areas: demand prediction, resource allocation, and use case evaluation. As part of the use case evaluation effort, a modeling and simulation capability is currently under development. This simulation capability includes the implementation of various features, including visualization of both live or virtually-generated airspace traffic, simulation scenario development, simulation management with data collection, and flight plan creation with corresponding trajectory generation. This modeling and simulation capability will continue to evolve as new and advanced airspace applications are introduced into existing and emerging operational environments.

Eric J. Knoblock↗

NASA NTRS2005

Advanced Combustion Modeling for Complex Turbulent Flows

The next generation of aircraft engines will need to pass stricter efficiency and emission tests. NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) program has set an ambitious goal of 70% reduction of NO(x) emissions and a 15% increase in fuel efficiency of aircraft engines. We will demonstrate the state-of-the-art combustion tools developed a t Stanford's Center for Turbulence Research (CTR) as part of this program. In the last decade, CTR has spear-headed a multi-physics-based combustion modeling program. Key technologies have been transferred to the aerospace industry and are currently being used for engine simulations. In this demo, we will showcase the next-generation combustion modeling tools that integrate a very high level of detailed physics into advanced flow simulation codes. Combustor flows involve multi-phase physics with liquid fuel jet breakup, evaporation, and eventual combustion. Individual components of the simulation are verified against complex test cases and show excellent agreement with experimental data.

Ham, Frank Stanford↗

DOE OSTI2016

Mechanical and Thermal Properties of Irradiated SiC/SiC Composites: Bridge Continuum Models With Atomic-level Simulations

Due to their excellent high-temperature fracture, creep, corrosion, and thermal shock resistance in addition to their high thermo-chemical stability, reduced activation, and low radiation- induced after heat, silicon carbide-fiber/silicon carbide-matrix (SiC/SiC) composites are being developed as structural materials for first wall and breeder blanket applications in advanced fusion power plants. In such applications these materials will be subjected to a high heat flux that imposes extremely stringent requirements on the minimum thermal conductivity needed. Also, SiC offers a number of potential applications for both electron devices and structural components as an inert matrix for the transmutation of plutonium and as cladding material for gas-cooled fission reactor. There has been a rapid growth of activity in the experimental study and the modeling of energetic-beam interactions, such as those encountered in ion-beam processing or in irradiation environments, on the structure and properties of SiC. During the last decade, understanding the basics of ion-solid interaction and irradiation damage has led to significant developments in state-of-the-art atomic-level, meso-scale simulations and continuum models of mechanical and thermal property prediction, and these different scales studies have dramatically advanced the understanding of defect and defect processes in a number of materials, ranging from metals to semiconductors to insulators. Recent progress in multi-scale simulations of fundamental ion-solid interactions, defect generation and defect evolution in SiC, as well as its property degradation under irradiation, is reviewed, which will provide significant insights into the radiation resistance behavior of SiC and SiC/SiC composites. (authors)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Behavior of contaminants and simulant fission products in the advanced chlorination process

The University of Tennessee, Knoxville and Oak Ridge National Laboratory have completed proof-of principle testing on an advanced sulfur-based zirconium and aluminum chlorination process for the recovery of Zr or Al from spent fuel claddings and purification of the products. This process could be used to recover hafnium-free nuclear-grade zirconium for reuse or disposal as low-level waste. Testing showed that even non-optimized reaction protocols could produce zirconium product streams from simulated irradiated fuel with purities >90%. The chlorination process was tested on representative fission product species that would be found in Advanced Test Reactor fuel (ATR). First, fission product generation was determined through modeling and simulation of the ATR. The generation of fission products was used to selected contaminants and potentially volatile fission product simulants for laboratory testing. The goal is to identify which species may react with the sulfur-chlorine reagents and be transported into the advanced chlorination off-gas.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Noise of a simulated installed model counterrotation propeller at angle-of-attack and takeoff/approach conditions

Two modern high-speed advanced counterrotation propellers, F7/A7 and F7/A3 were tested in the NASA Lewis Research Center's 9- by 15-Foot Anechoic Wind Tunnel at simulated takeoff/approach conditions of 0.2 Mach. Both rotors were of similar diameter on the F7/A7 propeller, while the aft diameter of the F7/A3 propeller was 85 percent of the forward propeller to reduce tip vortex-aft rotor interaction. The two propellers were designed for similar performance. The propellers were tested in both the baseline configuration and installed configuration consisting of a simulated upstream nacelle support pylon and fuselage section. Acoustic measurements were made with a polar microphone probe which recorded sideline directivities at various azimuthal locations. Aerodynamic measurements were also made to establish propeller operating conditions. The propellers were run at initial blade setting angles adjusted to achieve equal forward/aft torque ratios at angle of attack with the pylon and fuselage simulation in place. Data are presented for propeller operation at 80 and 90 percent of design speed (the forward rotor design tip speed was 238 m/sec (780 ft/sec). Both propellers were tested at the maximum rotor-rotor spacing of 14.99 cm (5.90 in.) based on the pitch change axis separation.

Woodward, Richard P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Large-Scale NASA Science Applications on the Columbia Supercluster

Columbia, NASA's newest 61 teraflops supercomputer that became operational late last year, is a highly integrated Altix cluster of 10,240 processors, and was named to honor the crew of the Space Shuttle lost in early 2003. Constructed in just four months, Columbia increased NASA's computing capability ten-fold, and revitalized the Agency's high-end computing efforts. Significant cutting-edge science and engineering simulations in the areas of space and Earth sciences, as well as aeronautics and space operations, are already occurring on this largest operational Linux supercomputer, demonstrating its capacity and capability to accelerate NASA's space exploration vision. The presentation will describe how an integrated environment consisting not only of next-generation systems, but also modeling and simulation, high-speed networking, parallel performance optimization, and advanced data analysis and visualization, is being used to reduce design cycle time, accelerate scientific discovery, conduct parametric analysis of multiple scenarios, and enhance safety during the life cycle of NASA missions. The talk will conclude by discussing how NAS partnered with various NASA centers, other government agencies, computer industry, and academia, to create a national resource in large-scale modeling and simulation.

Brooks, Walter↗

DOE OSTI2017

Advanced Atmospheric Ensemble Modeling Techniques

Ensemble modeling (EM), the creation of multiple atmospheric simulations for a given time period, has become an essential tool for characterizing uncertainties in model predictions. We explore two novel ensemble modeling techniques: (1) perturbation of model parameters (Adaptive Programming, AP), and (2) data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter, EnKF). The current research is an extension to work from last year and examines transport on a small spatial scale (<100 km) in complex terrain, for more rigorous testing of the ensemble technique. Two different release cases were studied, a coastal release (SF6) and an inland release (Freon) which consisted of two release times. Observations of tracer concentration and meteorology are used to judge the ensemble results. In addition, adaptive grid techniques have been developed to reduce required computing resources for transport calculations. Using a 20- member ensemble, the standard approach generated downwind transport that was quantitatively good for both releases; however, the EnKF method produced additional improvement for the coastal release where the spatial and temporal differences due to interior valley heating lead to the inland movement of the plume. The AP technique showed improvements for both release cases, with more improvement shown in the inland release. This research demonstrated that transport accuracy can be improved when models are adapted to a particular location/time or when important local data is assimilated into the simulation and enhances SRNL’s capability in atmospheric transport modeling in support of its current customer base and local site missions, as well as our ability to attract new customers within the intelligence community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Abstract The National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗