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Open Science Approach to Analyze Climate-Crop Relationships in the US Leveraging GES DISC and Galaxy Workflows

Understanding the intricate relationship between climate variability and agricultural production is crucial for ensuring food security. This study investigates the impact of climate parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, on major US crop yields. Adopting an open science approach, the study analyzes the impact of climate on agricultural production in the United States. The Galaxy workflow engine serves as the primary tool for integrating climate data from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), retrieved via the Giovanni system, with yield statistics from the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). Extensions for reading, preprocessing, and analyzing external data have been developed, enabling the creation of workflows within the Galaxy platform. The development of a reproducible workflow allows for the calculation of seasonal climate averages, which are then assessed for their correlation with crop yields. This methodology ensures the replicability of the research, promoting transparency and collaboration in the scientific community. Correlational and regression analyses have been applied to different sub-zones and crops. The findings from this research offer valuable insights into the relationship between climate parameters and crop yields. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of climate-crop relationships, providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making in the agricultural sector. The high correlation values indicate a significant relationship between climate parameters and crop yields, underscoring the importance of considering climate factors in agricultural planning and policymaking. This research also exemplifies the power of open science in advancing our understanding of complex environmental and agricultural phenomena. By leveraging open data and services, it provides a robust and replicable framework for future studies in this critical field.

Open science↗

Assessment of the Griffin Reactor Multiphysics Application Using the Empire Micro Reactor Design Concept

In late 2019, INL and ANL agreed to jointly develop the reactor physics code named Griffin based on the integration of the two code suites, MAMMOTH/Rattlesnake (INL) and MC2 - 3/PROTEUS (ANL). Griffin is being developed based on the MOOSE framework and MOOSE quality assurance procedures. This decision was made to be able to allow DOE-NE to efficiently invest funding to this area and to provide effective and timely support for existing and potential users; the latter includes industry and government organizations who are developing various types of advanced reactors in the near and long term. Since MAMMOTH/Rattlesnake has been developed based on the MOOSE framework, the INL/ANL Griffin development team agreed to build Griffin beginning with a merger of MAMMOTH and Rattlesnake into a single code and moving forward by implementing capabilities from the PROTEUS suite into Griffin. Moving forward, both ANL and INL efforts are equally invested in the Griffin project, with management support, to provide an advanced reactor multiphysics tool to assist in reactor design, optimization, and safety analysis. Much work remains in moving Griffin forward to migrate PROTEUS capabilities and to optimize performance to meet user needs. The main objective of this work is to assess the current status of Griffin capabilities in terms of performance and accuracy, to determine priorities for PROTEUS migration, and to identify capabilities and features to improve for supporting the code integration effort. For this assessment, the Empire micro reactor problem that was developed in the ARPA-E MEITNER program was selected as an advance reactor concept of interest to the technical community. The Empire reactor problem was expanded from its original incomplete specification to be a small heat-pipe-cooled micro reactor core with ~113 cm radius and 70 cm in height, composed of 18 fuel assemblies, 12 control drums, and beryllium radial and axial reflectors. In the current model, using 5 cm axial reflectors specified in the original Empire assembly model, more than 10% of neutrons leak axially and through the empty center safety hole, as well as through heat pipe channels in fuel assembly elements that extend through the top reflector region. Several calculation models of the core were defined for systematic assessment, including 2-D and 3-D fuel assemblies and whole cores with cylindrical boundaries. Cross sections were generated using Serpent 2, and meshes were produced using the Argonne mesh tool or the INL neutronics meshing tools combined with CUBIT. Cross sections and meshes were converted to the ISOXML and Exodus formats, respectively, so that Griffin and PROTEUS could use consistent data for solving the reactor problems. With the prepared cross sections and meshes, PROTEUS was run first to ensure that all input data were correctly generated and input options in terms of angle, mesh, and energy group were accurately determined. Comparisons against Serpent 2 solutions were made in terms of eigenvalue and pin power. The same calculations and comparisons were then conducted using Griffin. For the fuel assembly and whole core problems, the PROTEUS eigenvalues agreed well with reference Serpent 2 solutions within 100 and 30 pcm, respectively, and pin power differences relative to Serpent 2 were overall less than 2.2% and RMS 0.8% for the whole core models. This indicated that all input data were properly prepared. Using the same data, Griffin was run selecting the SAAF-CFEM SN solver with Legendre-Gaussian quadrature and NDA and DSA for acceleration. It was found that the SAAF-CFEM solver of Griffin required finer meshes to achieve eigenvalue and pin power solutions in good agreement with Serpent 2, consequently requiring more memory requirement and longer computation time. On the other hand, the SPH-Diffusion 2-D core calculations performed using Griffin were able to recover the exact eigenvalue from the reference Serpent 2 solutions, resulting in a pin-power distribution with an RMS of 0.6% and maximum absolute difference of less than 1.4%. The runtimes for SPH-Diffusion for the 2-D core were less than 3 minutes on 40 cores. During this evolution of this evaluation, many updates were made in Griffin by the Griffin development team of INL (focusing on software updates) and ANL (reviewing and supporting software updates) to complete this assessment. Observations from the code assessment are presented in the conclusion section of this report, followed by a discussion of recommendations for future work.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Selecting Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessments

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.

Strahan, Susan↗

Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.↗

Next-Generation Marine Energy Software Needs Assessment

Over the past decade the marine energy industry has continued to grow and evolve, with new concepts and technologies constantly being pursued. Additionally, the field of computing is vastly different today than it was five or ten years ago. By utilizing advanced software and hardware architectures, like graphics processing units as well as parallelization and high-performance computing resources, software can produce higher quality outputs and a higher volume of outputs. These software and hardware resources can enable the marine energy community to exploit computational advancements from other research fields, which can include machine learning, differentiable programming, and controls co-design. Better integration of existing software and development of potential new software is necessary to take advantage of trends in modern computing and respond to the current and future needs of the marine energy community. In order to better understand the existing marine energy software landscape and industry needs, DOE's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) tasked Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to update the needs assessment by identifying existing software gaps and software needs, and assisting WPTO in planning the next wave of marine energy software development. The proposed effort involved cataloguing and analyzing the available data on existing software related to marine energy. The marine energy software landscape has vastly changed in the last ten years. There are now nearly 230 different software packages utilized by the marine energy sector, compared to a decade ago when the Cardinal Engineering survey identified approximately 40 software packages. In 2012, the marine energy software landscape was captured in two tables, whereas the current marine energy software landscape required development of a software database to collect and categorize software.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Preliminary Assessment of Potential for Wind Energy Technology on the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Reservation

Wind energy can provide renewable and sustainable electricity to Native American reservations, including rural homes, and power schools and businesses on reservations. It can also provide tribes with a source of income and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to determine the potential for deploying community and utility-scale wind renewable technologies on the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa tribal lands. Ideal areas for wind technology development were investigated based on annual wind resources, terrain, land usage, and other factors such as culturally sensitive sites. The result is a preliminary assessment of wind energy potential on Turtle Mountain lands, which can be used to justify further investigation and investment into determining the feasibility of future wind technology projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Testbed Demonstration of an Intelligent Archive in a Knowledge Building System

The last decade's influx of raw data and derived geophysical parameters from several Earth observing satellites to NASA data centers has created a data-rich environment for Earth science research and applications. While advances in hardware and information management have made it possible to archive petabytes of data and distribute terabytes of data daily to a broad community of users, further progress is necessary in the transformation of data into information, and information into knowledge that can be used in particular applications in order to realize the full potential of these valuable datasets. In examining what is needed to enable this progress in the data provider environment that exists today and is expected to evolve in the next several years, we arrived at the concept of an Intelligent Archive in context of a Knowledge Building System (IA/KBS). Our prior work and associated papers investigated usage scenarios, required capabilities, system architecture, data volume issues, and supporting technologies. We identified six key capabilities of an IA/KBS: Virtual Product Generation, Significant Event Detection, Automated Data Quality Assessment, Large-Scale Data Mining, Dynamic Feedback Loop, and Data Discovery and Efficient Requesting. Among these capabilities, large-scale data mining is perceived by many in the community to be an area of technical risk. One of the main reasons for this is that standard data mining research and algorithms operate on datasets that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the actual sizes of datasets maintained by realistic earth science data archives. Therefore, we defined a test-bed activity to implement a large-scale data mining algorithm in a pseudo-operational scale environment and to examine any issues involved. The application chosen for applying the data mining algorithm is wildfire prediction over the continental U.S. This paper reports a number of observations based on our experience with this test-bed. While proof-of-concept for data mining scalability and utility has been a major goal for the research reported here, it was not the only one. The other five capabilities of an WKBS named above have been considered as well, and an assessment of the implications of our experience for these other areas will also be presented. The lessons learned through the testbed effort and presented in this paper will benefit technologists, scientists, and system operators as they consider introducing IA/KBS capabilities into production systems.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗

Civil helicopter noise assessment study Boeing-Vertol model 347

A study was conducted to forecast the noise restrictions which may be imposed on civil transport helicopters in the 1975-1985 time period. Certification and community acceptance criteria were predicted. A 50 passenger tandem rotor helicopter based on the Boeing-Vertol Model 347 was studied to determine the noise reductions required, and the means of achieving them. Some of the important study recommendations are: (1) certification limits should be equivalent to 95 EPNdb at data points located at 500 feet to each side of the touchdown/takeoff point, and 1000 feet from this point directly under the approach and departure flight path. (2) community acceptance should be measured as Equivalent Noise Level (Leq), based on dBA, with separate limits for day and night operations, and (3) in order to comply with the above guidelines, the Model 347 helicopter will require studies and tests leading to several modifications.

Hinterkeuser, E. G.↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33873-DND

NOAA's National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) model provides 48-hour forecast of surface ozone and other atmospheric constituents serving as the nation's key tool actively used by regulatory professionals in assessing air quality events and the issuance of public air quality alerts. NAQFC incorporates input meteorology from North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) at 12 km horizontal resolution that is coupled to the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to predict emissions, tropospheric gas and aerosol chemistry, and related deposition and removal processes. The NAQFC forecast simulations contain 35 steps in altitude, with about one third of these in a typical afternoon daytime boundary layer (0-1.5 km). While several studies have been conducted comparing NAQFC predictions to surface observations, investigations comparing the vertical distribution to observations remain limited. Vertical comparisons are needed in order to fully assess forecast model behavior and atmospheric mixing conditions leading to the formation of ozone at the surface. The Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) instruments provide a unique observational capability in this regard, as ozone vertical measurements can be directly compared to models, such as NAQFC, and provide additional insight into atmospheric processes and enhance forecast capabilities. In this study, we utilize multiple TOLNet lidar observations obtained during the Ozone Water Land Environmental Transition Studies (OWLETS-2017 & OWLETS-2018) and the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS-2018) to compare with NAQFC vertical predictions of ozone. These campaigns took place at different coastal locations along the US East coast with each campaign having multiple TOLNet lidars present, providing a unique opportunity to examine vertical structure of ozone in regions with complex water-land boundaries. Preliminary comparison results will be presented on ozone temporal and vertical differences between NAQFC and the TOLNet lidars along with example case studies to illustrate insights into boundary layer and surface processes of trace gases.

Timothy Berkoff↗

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions for Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused by Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions about potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size range of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) what is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its structure and heterogeneity from the surface and throughout its interior? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as inputs for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) the devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact on land based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) how information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) how information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature to provide input for a new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in the creation of an appraisal of the threat from 2017 PDC with the least uncertainty possible, herein called the best-case.

Asteroid Impact Appraisals↗

Evaluation of native Earth system model output with ESMValTool v2.6.0

Earth system models (ESMs) are state-of-the-art climate models that allow numerical simulations of the past, present-day, and future climate. To extend our understanding of the Earth system and improve climate change projections, the complexity of ESMs heavily increased over the last decades. As a consequence, the amount and volume of data provided by ESMs has increased considerably. Innovative tools for a comprehensive model evaluation and analysis are required to assess the performance of these increasingly complex ESMs against observations or reanalyses. One of these tools is the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of ESMs. Input data for ESMValTool needs to be formatted according to the CMOR (Climate Model Output Rewriter) standard, a process that is usually referred to as “CMORization”. While this is a quasi-standard for large model intercomparison projects like the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this complicates the application of ESMValTool to non-CMOR-compliant climate model output. In this paper, we describe an extension of ESMValTool introduced in v2.6.0 that allows seamless reading and processing of “native” climate model output, i.e., operational output produced by running the climate model through the standard workflow of the corresponding modeling institute. This is achieved by an extension of ESMValTool's preprocessing pipeline that performs a CMOR-like reformatting of the native model output during runtime. Thus, the rich collection of diagnostics provided by ESMValTool is now fully available for these models. For models that use unstructured grids, a further preprocessing step required to apply many common diagnostics is regridding to a regular latitude–longitude grid. Extensions to ESMValTool's regridding functions described here allow for more flexible interpolation schemes that can be used on unstructured grids. Currently, ESMValTool supports nearest-neighbor, bilinear, and first-order conservative regridding from unstructured grids to regular grids. Example applications of this new native model support are the evaluation of new model setups against predecessor versions, assessing of the performance of different simulations against observations, CMORization of native model data for contributions to model intercomparison projects, and monitoring of running climate model simulations. For the latter, new general-purpose diagnostics have been added to ESMValTool that are able to plot a wide range of variable types. Currently, five climate models are supported: CESM2 (experimental; at the moment, only surface variables are available), EC-Earth3, EMAC, ICON, and IPSL-CM6. As the framework for the CMOR-like reformatting of native model output described here is implemented in a general way, support for other climate models can be easily added.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗

Assessment of MSFCs Process for the Development and Activation of Space Act Agreements

A Space Act Agreement (SAA) is a contractual vehicle that NASA utilizes to form partnerships with non-NASA entities to stimulate cutting-edge innovation within the science and technology communities while concurrently supporting the NASA missions. SAAs are similar to traditional contracts in that they involve the commitment of Agency resources but allow more flexibility and are more cost effective to implement than traditional contracts. Consequently, the use of SAAs to develop partnerships has greatly increased over the past several years. To facilitate this influx of SAAs, Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developed a process during a kaizen event to streamline and improve the quality of SAAs developed at the Center level. This study assessed the current SAA process to determine if improvements could be implemented to increase productivity, decrease time to activation, and improve the quality of deliverables. Using a combination of direct procedural observation, personnel interviews, and statistical analysis, elements of the process in need of remediation were identified and potential solutions developed. The findings focus primarily on the difficulties surrounding tracking and enforcing process adherence and communication issues among stakeholders. Potential solutions include utilizing customer relationship management (CRM) software to facilitate process coordination and co-locating or potentially merging the two separate organizations involved in SAA development and activation at MSFC.

Daugherty, Rachel A.↗

Evaluation of the application of ERTS-1 data to the regional land use planning process

The author has identified the following significant results. Investigators have concentrated on efforts toward assessing the achievements of the current ERTS-1 research so that significant results could be incorporated into the updated version of their ERTS-B research proposal. Significant progress was made in the development of operational mechanisms, linking the research community at the University and the operation agencies of the State of Wisconsin. Efforts have been made to finalize a report which is being prepared for the State of Wisconsin Department of Administration, evaluating the applicability of ERTS-1 to the planning needs of the State of Wisconsin. This document is intended to assess the degree of utility of the satellite for providing information which has been designated by state planners as essential to their needs. This effort is considered highly significant to the overall research program since a situation has been created in which a prime potential user of ERTS type data has been given the opportunity to determine the direction of the research.

Clapp, J. L.↗

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Research Needs and Activities

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have benefitted the safe operation of the U.S. reactor fleet over many decades. Risk insights from these PRAs have provided information from many different perspectives, from what is most important to maintain at a facility to a better understanding of how to address new information regarding safety issues. The methods and tools that have supported the creation and enhancement of PRA models were established through multiple decades of research, from the 1970s starting with the WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study through comprehensive plant-specific models in use today. Because PRA models are being used to support such a diverse array of plant decisions, they are now being applied to analyze an increasing number and diverse set of aspects of the plant, which are well beyond the initial efforts envisioned in the 1970s. These demands on PRA methods and tools have led to challenges in terms of further expansion of the use of PRA and raised the potential for future research into how to address these challenges to ensure continued nuclear safety. In addition to the PRA needs, the domain of computer science has led to advances in computational approaches that may serve to help nuclear power plant PRA applications. These newer technologies have great potential to improve the effectiveness and economics of PRA and are being considered for exploration of potential benefits to the PRA and nuclear-power communities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗