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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient learning of accurate surrogates for simulations of complex systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse or dynamic data. Here, we introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data, and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation-of-state model can be reliably autogenerated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments—though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Provenance infrastructure for multimodal x-ray experiments and reproducible analysis

Exploring relationships between material structures and desired properties for material discovery and synthesis requires mining machine-readable databases and linking experimental data with sufficiently rich annotations. There are vast gaps both in these data sources and in the connections between them. We present a provenance-based data management and analysis framework that enables capturing, persisting, and reanalyzing experimental data from the BNL National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II). Our system leverages NSLS-II Bluesky for experimental data acquisition, captures analysis parameters, and enriches the search space with results from the scientific literature. We describe in detail the challenges and benefits of data-driven approaches when comparing computational and experimental data, such as the multiple possible scenarios of interest in often ill-posed inverse problems and missing data. Our infrastructure utilizes the NSLS-II event model and includes discovery mechanisms across multiple beamlines. A text and data mining module using natural language processing classification techniques extracts relevant information from the literature that is added to data sources. We describe a provenance acquisition and analysis rerun workflow based on a directed acyclic graph that keeps track of process and data provenance and allows to replay analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

GCAM-Demeter LU dataset

The dataset includes the projected global gridded land cover (excluding the Antarctic) for the period of 2015-2100 at 0.05-degree resolution and 5-year time step under fifteen SSP-RCP scenarios driven by five GCMs (i.e., gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a geospatial downscaling model (Demeter). The data has been stored in self-describing NetCDF format. The dataset also includes the mean and standard deviation of the results driven by the five GCMs. More specifically, the data in each year includes grid-explicit fraction (in percent) of each of the 32 plant functional types that are widely used in current Earth system models. The NetCDF files are named as “GCAM_Demeter_LU_SSP_RCP_Model_Year.nc”, where “SSP” and “RCP” denote the SSP and RCP scenarios, including 'ssp1_rcp26', 'ssp1_rcp45', 'ssp1_rcp60', 'ssp2_rcp26', 'ssp2_rcp45', 'ssp2_rcp60', 'ssp3_rcp45', 'ssp3_rcp60', 'ssp4_rcp26', 'ssp4_rcp45', 'ssp4_rcp60', 'ssp5_rcp26', 'ssp5_rcp45', 'ssp5_rcp60', and 'ssp5_rcp85'. “Year” denotes the year of the land use data, and “GCM” denotes the source driving forcing data from five global climate models (gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), or the mean (“modelmean”) and the standard deviation (“modelstd”) of the results from the five GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

GCAM-Demeter-LU

This GCAM-Demeter-LU is made available under the Open Data Commons Attribution License:http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/by/1.0/. The dataset includes the projected global gridded land cover (excluding the Antarctic) for the period of 2015-2100 at 0.05-degree resolution and 5-year time step under fifteen SSP-RCP scenarios driven by five GCMs (i.e., gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a geospatial downscaling model (Demeter). The data has been stored in self-describing NetCDF format. The dataset also includes the mean and standard deviation of the results driven by the five GCMs. More specifically, the data in each year includes grid-explicit fraction (in percent) of each of the 32 plant functional types that are widely used in current Earth system models. The NetCDF files are named as “GCAM_Demeter_LU_SSP_RCP_Model_Year.nc”, where “SSP” and “RCP” denote the SSP and RCP scenarios, including 'ssp1_rcp26', 'ssp1_rcp45', 'ssp1_rcp60', 'ssp2_rcp26', 'ssp2_rcp45', 'ssp2_rcp60', 'ssp3_rcp45', 'ssp3_rcp60', 'ssp4_rcp26', 'ssp4_rcp45', 'ssp4_rcp60', 'ssp5_rcp26', 'ssp5_rcp45', 'ssp5_rcp60', and 'ssp5_rcp85'. “Year” denotes the year of the land use data, and “GCM” denotes the source driving forcing data from five global climate models (gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), or the mean (“modelmean”) and the standard deviation (“modelstd”) of the results from the five GCMs.See https://github.com/JGCRI/chen_et_al_2020a for details on how to reproduce this data. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ applies to the metadata files associated with this article

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection of Control Injection Attacks using Energy Data Anomalies in CNC Machining

The widespread adoption of networked devices, sophisticated automation, and data-driven processes in the industry - also known as Industry 4.0 - has boosted the quantity and quality of manufacturing products. With these benefits, however, comes a substantial increase in the attack surface of these systems. In addition to affecting the readiness and the quality of critical products, the attacks against manufacturing processes and systems carry the potential to have severe physical consequences, including human injury and death. In this paper we present the results of a remote network-based control injection attack on a CNC mill. Specifically, we focus on the impact of this type of the attack on the movement of CNC mill during operation. Evaluating the physical effect of these attacks on a workpiece, we provide machine agnostic, affordable, and scalable solution for their monitoring. We then demonstrate a simple threshold-based method for the detection of these attacks and evaluate the effectiveness of detection.

Taylor, Curtis↗
DOE OSTI2025

COMPASS-FME Synoptic Site Characterization

This dataset contains soil biogeochemical and physicochemical characterization data for the COMPASS-FME synoptic sites.This dataset also contains data for the paper Patel et al. 2025 "Transition zones at the changing coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface", https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG008978.Coastal soils are a significant but highly uncertain component of global biogeochemical cycles. These systems experience unique spatial and temporal variability in biogeochemical processes, driven by wetland-to-upland gradients and hydrological fluctuations. We studied drivers of coastal soil variability (a) at regional scales and (b) across transects from upland forest to wetland, in two contrasting regions — Lake Erie, a freshwater lacustrine system, and Chesapeake Bay, a saltwater estuarine system. Salinity-related analytes were a key driver of soil variability, not just in the saltwater system, but surprisingly, also in the freshwater system. We had hypothesized linear trends in biogeochemical parameters along the TAI – however, contrary to expectations, transition soils were not consistently intermediate between upland and wetland endmembers; the non-monotonic trends of carbon, phosphorus, iron along our transects suggest that these are key analytes to study in our regions. Rapidly changing soil factors across coastal gradients provide insights into which soil processes may act as precursors to ecosystem shifts. Our comprehensive soil characterization across the coastal transects provides essential data for mechanistic modeling of ecosystem dynamics.The data are provided as processed, csv files. Raw data and processing scripts can be accessed on GitHub (https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-soil_characterization).A note on the nomenclature: the experimental design represents three points along the coastal gradient -- upland, transition, and wetland. "wetland" is referred to as "marsh" in the corresponding paper. The two terms can be used interchangeably for the sites in this study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Linear Parameter-Varying Modeling and Control of Flexible Loads for Grid Services

Flexible loads have great potential to improve the electric grid's flexibility and stability. To effectively control large ensembles of heterogeneous loads, reliable models thereof are required. This paper presents a data-driven modeling and control approach to manage flexible loads for providing grid services. We leverage a linear parameter-varying autoregressive moving average (LPV-ARMA) model to describe the aggregate load response, where the parameters in the model are used to capture external environmental impacts (e.g., weather). A gain-scheduling feedback controller is then developed to adapt to environmental variations. This data-driven approach can be easily applied to different types of loads in various environmental conditions. In addition to the ensemble controller, distributed load controllers are designed to deliver grid services, while maintaining the quality of service of inherent load tasks. We demonstrate the work on the IEEE 37-node distribution system for real-time power regulation services through control of thermostatically controlled loads.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Refinement of Electronic Energies from Two-Electron Reduced-Density-Matrix Theory

The exponential computational cost of describing strongly correlated electrons can be mitigated by adopting a reduced-density-matrix (RDM)-based description of the electronic structure. While variational two-electron RDM (v2RDM) methods can enable large-scale calculations on such systems, the quality of the solution is limited by the fact that only a subset of known necessary N-representability constraints can be applied to the 2RDM in practical calculations. Here, we demonstrate that violations of partial three-particle (T1 and T2) N-representability conditions, which can be evaluated with knowledge of only the 2RDM, can serve as physics-based features in a machine-learning (ML) protocol for improving energies from v2RDM calculations that consider only two-particle (PQG) conditions. Proof-of-principle calculations demonstrate that the model yields substantially improved energies, relative to reference values from configuration-interaction-based calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing a Disaster-Ready Power Grid Agent Through Geophysically-Informed Fault Event Scenarios

Management of the nation’s power grid over the coming decades will need to factor multiple climate-driven threats to the power system that can be stressful or even detrimental to its operations. During disasters, grid operators suffer from cognitive overload where the electric grid is severely impacted by the weather, yet grid operators have limited awareness of these factors. Meanwhile, the electric grid is facing an explosion of data coming from a variety of sources which can enable the operator to evaluate the risks and develop mitigation strategies against hazardous events. In this work, we processed heterogeneous environmental and power grid data to learn and model grid behavior caused by extreme weather events. In this study, we focused on two weather-driven hazards, hurricanes and wildfires, which were analysed for the electric grid of Texas. We the used this data to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent by analysing and predicting future behaviour of the grid during those hazard events. All these parts are incorporated in one framework to have a geophysically informed power simulators that can be used to train RL agents.

electic grid, reinforcement learning, climate adap↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the determinants of organic matter bioavailability through substrate-explicit thermodynamic modeling

Microbial decomposition of organic matter (OM) in river corridors is a major driver of nutrient and energy cycles in natural ecosystems. Recent advances in omics technologies enabled high-throughput generation of molecular data that could be used to inform biogeochemical models. With ultrahigh-resolution OM data becoming more readily available, in particular, the substrate-explicit thermodynamic modeling (SXTM) has emerged as a promising approach due to its ability to predict OM degradation and respiration rates from chemical formulae of compounds. This model implicitly assumes that all detected organic compounds are bioavailable, and that aerobic respiration is driven solely by thermodynamics. Despite promising demonstrations in previous studies, these assumptions may not be universally valid because OM degradation is a complex process governed by multiple factors. To identify key drivers of OM respiration, we performed a comprehensive analysis of diverse river systems using Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry OM data and associated respiration measurements collected by the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium. In support of our argument, we found that the incorporation of all compounds detected in the samples into the SXTM resulted in a poor correlation between the predicted and measured respiration rates. The data-model consistency was significantly improved by the selective use of a small subset (i.e., only about 5%) of organic compounds identified using an optimization method. Through a subsequent comparative analysis of the subset of compounds (which we presume as bioavailable) against the full set of compounds, we identified three major traits that potentially determine OM bioavailability, including: (1) thermodynamic favorability of aerobic respiration, (2) the number of C atoms contained in compounds, and (2) carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratio. We found that all three factors serve as “filters” in that the compounds with undesirable properties in any of these traits are strictly excluded from the bioavailable fraction. This work highlights the importance of accounting for the complex interplay among multiple key traits to increase the predictive power of biogeochemical and ecosystem models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

ASPIRES: Airport Shuttle Planning and Improved Routing Event-driven Simulation

Most of the existing traffic simulation packages require significant calibration work to be able to reflect reality. To evaluate special operations including emerging technologies, a microscopic simulation that tracks detailed interactions of all the elements of the traffic systems is usually needed. This type of simulation is usually computationally demanding. This work developed an Airport Shuttle Planning and Improved Routing Event-driven Simulation (ASPIRES) package to simulate and evaluate current, potential, and future airport shuttle operations. Here, the simulation was driven by data and thus did not require much calibration effort. The discrete-event simulation nature of ASPIRES makes the simulation computationally efficient. Simulating 1 day of shuttle operations takes less than 2s. The study site of this work is the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport in the U.S. The shuttle service that connects the five terminals of the airport and the rental car center was studied. Travel times, dwell times, and passenger arrivals were simulated using empirical distributions derived mainly from real data to capture the stochastic nature of the rental car center shuttle bus operations. Data on bus miles traveled, bus energy consumption, passenger wait times, and passengers left behind at stops were collected to study the trade-off between energy use and passenger experience. Electric bus and on-demand bus operations were also included. The simulation outputs can show passengers statistics at terminals, shuttles statistics, and charging station statistics. ASPIRES cannot be used to model a generic traffic system but is well-suited for fleet systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A semantics-driven framework to enable demand flexibility control applications in real buildings

Decarbonising and digitalising the energy sector requires scalable and interoperable Demand Flexibility (DF) applications. Semantic models are promising technologies for achieving these goals, but existing studies focused on DF applications exhibit limitations. These include dependence on bespoke ontologies, lack of computational methods to generate semantic models, ineffective temporal data management and absence of platforms that use these models to easily develop, configure and deploy controls in real buildings. This paper introduces a semantics-driven framework to enable DF control applications in real buildings. The framework supports the generation of semantic models that adhere to Brick and SAREF while using metadata from Building Information Models (BIM) and Building Automation Systems (BAS). The work also introduces a web platform that leverages these models and an actor and microservices architecture to streamline the development, configuration and deployment of DF controls. The paper demonstrates the framework through a case study, illustrating its ability to integrate diverse data sources, execute DF actuation in a real building, and promote modularity for easy reuse, extension, and customisation of applications. The paper also discusses the alignment between Brick and SAREF, the value of leveraging BIM data sources, and the framework's benefits over existing approaches, demonstrating a 75% reduction in effort for developing, configuring, and deploying building controls.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

MtrA modulates Mycobacterium tuberculosis cell division in host microenvironments to mediate intrinsic resistance and drug tolerance

The success of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is largely attributed to its ability to physiologically adapt and withstand diverse localized stresses within host microenvironments. Here, we present a data-driven model (EGRIN 2.0) that captures the dynamic interplay of environmental cues and genome-encoded regulatory programs in Mtb. Analysis of EGRIN 2.0 shows how modulation of the MtrAB two-component signaling system tunes Mtb growth in response to related host microenvironmental cues. Disruption of MtrAB by tunable CRISPR interference confirms that the signaling system regulates multiple peptidoglycan hydrolases, among other targets, that are important for cell division. Further, MtrA decreases the effectiveness of antibiotics by mechanisms of both intrinsic resistance and drug tolerance. Together, the model-enabled dissection of complex MtrA regulation highlights its importance as a drug target and illustrates how EGRIN 2.0 facilitates discovery and mechanistic characterization of Mtb adaptation to specific host microenvironments within the host.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗