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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 991 records · Page 55
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meteorological Influences on Anthropogenic PM 2.5 in Future Climates: Species Level Analysis in the Community Earth System Model v2

Abstract Biomass and fossil fuel burning impact air quality by injecting fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and its precursors into the atmosphere, which poses serious threats to human health. However, the surface concentration of PM 2.5 depends not only on the magnitude of emissions, but also secondary production, transport, and removal. For example, in response to greenhouse gas driven warming, meteorological conditions that govern aerosol removal, primarily through rainfall and wet deposition, could shift in pattern, frequency, and intensity. This climate change driven process can impact air quality even without changes in aerosol emissions. In this experiment, we conduct new simulations by fixing aerosol emissions at present‐day levels in the Community Earth System Model Version 2, but increasing greenhouse gases through the 21st century. In our results, the changes in patterns and intensity of PM 2.5 are found to be associated with precipitation (via aerosol removal), temperature (via secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation), and moisture and clouds (via sulfate production). A decrease in wet day frequency (∼1.2% global mean) contributes to increases in the surface concentrations of black carbon, primary organic matter, and sulfate in many regions. This is offset in some regions by an upward vertical shift in the level where SOA forms, which contributes to higher column burden but lower surface concentration. These results highlight a need, using a variety of modeling tools, to continually reassess aerosol emissions regulations in response to anticipated climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for the Attribution of Air‐Sea CO 2 Exchange

Abstract The air‐sea transfer of carbon dioxide can be viewed as a dynamic system through which atmospheric and oceanic processes push surface waters away from thermodynamic equilibrium, while diffusive gas transfer pulls them back toward local equilibrium. These push/pull processes drive significant sub‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability in air‐sea carbon fluxes, the quantification of which is critical both for diagnosing the ocean response to fossil fuel emissions and for attempts to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption through intentional modification of surface ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we present a new approach for attributing air‐sea carbon fluxes to specific mechanisms. The new framework is first applied to a two‐box ocean nutrient and carbon cycle model as an illustrative example. Next, outputs from a regional eddy‐resolving model of the Southern Ocean are analyzed. The roles of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes are identified. The decomposition of the seasonal air‐sea carbon flux shows the dominant role of biological carbon pumps that are partially compensated by the transport convergence. Finally, the framework is used to diagnose the response to mesoscale iron and alkalinity release, explicitly quantifying transport feedback and eventual impacts on net air‐sea carbon flux. Ocean carbon transport has divergent influences between iron and alkalinity release, due to opposing near‐surface gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon. We suggest that our attribution framework may be a useful analytical technique for monitoring natural ocean carbon fluxes and quantifying the impacts of human intervention on the ocean carbon cycle.

Ito, Takamitsu [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sc↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity of Anthropogenic Cloud Droplet Number Change to Preindustrial Emission Inventories and Physics Parameterizations

Understanding the preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) change in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd) is important to constrain the anthropogenic influence on clouds and aid future model projections. Perturbed parameter ensemble simulations of PI and PD conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv3) reveal two locations with consistent negative ΔNd signal across parameter space–the Southeastern US and the United Kingdom–despite a trend of positive ΔNd globally from increased fossil fuel consumption. These negative ΔNd signals are driven by higher anthropogenic biofuel emissions in the PI. By varying the PI aerosol mass and/or number emissions across these data sets' uncertainty ranges, we can change the magnitude and sign of ΔNd and the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) regionally and globally, with near-zero ΔNd leading to near-zero ERFaci. These results highlight the need to constrain PI emission uncertainty to better understand Earth system responses to aerosol-cloud interactions.

Brown, Hunter Y. [University of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of the United States GReenhouse Gas and Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES)

In the U.S., emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are often developed independently. Here, we describe the GReenhouse gas And Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES), which provides gridded emissions of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO 2 ) and 93 air quality (AQ) species for 17 combustion and non-combustion sectors at 4 km × 4 km spatial resolution across the contiguous US. We find that the AQ emissions most spatially correlated with ffCO 2 are nitrogen oxides (NO x , ρ = 0.67), followed by sulfur dioxide (SO 2 , ρ = 0.51), carbon monoxide (CO, ρ = 0.44), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 , ρ = 0.38). We evaluate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 emissions with an ensemble of publicly available regional and global inventories at national (Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) = +1.4%), state (NMB = +1.5%, R 2 = 0.98), and urban (NMB = +11.5%, R 2 = 0.97) scales. Nationally, the differences of publicly available inventories from the ensemble average range from −10.0% to +5.7%, and consistency diverges at state and urban scales. We simulate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 in a particle dispersion model and compare to measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C)-derived ffCO 2 collected in Los Angeles (August 2021), with results suggesting that GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 may be low by 19% for this city, but well within model-observation differences for other publicly available inventories (−43% to +94%). GRA 2 PES AQ/ffCO 2 ratios converted to concentration space generally agree with field observations (NMB = +4%, log R 2 = 0.90). Lastly, we present a method by which to utilize GRA 2 PES to derive AQ emission fluxes from ffCO 2 emissions.

Lyu, Congmeng [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad↗
DOE OSTI2014

Electrochemistry: Catalysis at the boundaries

Renewable energy provides an opportunity to power society without the potential impacts from the use of fossil fuels, but a major limitation of sources such as solar and wind is their intermittent availability. Efficient storage of energy from these renewable sources is critical in developing their widespread utilization. One approach to the storage of renewable energy is the production of fuels, such as ethanol, from water and carbon dioxide. Unlike traditional centralized fuel production, electrochemical systems can operate under mild pressures and temperatures in dispersed, small-scale reactors. Renewable sources of energy are inherently dispersed, and therefore are well matched with the production of fuels electrochemically. However, the development of efficient catalysts is essential for the intended chemical transformations.

CO2 reduction↗
DOE OSTI2016

A low-cost hierarchical nanostructured beta-titanium alloy with high strength

Lightweighting of automobiles by use of novel low-cost, high strength-to-weight ratio structural materials can reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and in turn CO 2 emission. Working towards this goal we achieved high strength in a low cost β-titanium alloy, Ti-1Al-8V-5Fe (Ti185), by hierarchical nanostructure consisting of homogenous distribution of micron-scale and nanoscale α-phase precipitates within the β-phase matrix. The sequence of phase transformation leading to this hierarchical nanostructure is explored using electron microscopy and atom probe tomography. Our results suggest that the high number density of nanoscale α-phase precipitates in the β-phase matrix is due to ω assisted nucleation of α resulting in high tensile strength, greater than any current commercial titanium alloy. Furthermore hierarchical nanostructured Ti185 serves as an excellent candidate for replacing costlier titanium alloys and other structural alloys for cost-effective lightweighting applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Metal–organic framework with optimally selective xenon adsorption and separation

Nuclear energy is considered among the most viable alternatives to our current fossil fuel based energy economy.1 The mass-deployment of nuclear energy as an emissions-free source requires the reprocessing of used nuclear fuel to mitigate the waste.2 One of the major concerns with reprocessing used nuclear fuel is the release of volatile radionuclides such as Xe and Kr. The most mature process for removing these radionuclides is energy- and capital-intensive cryogenic distillation. Alternatively, porous materials such as metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have demonstrated the ability to selectively adsorb Xe and Kr at ambient conditions.3-8 High-throughput computational screening of large databases of porous materials has identified a calcium-based nanoporous MOF, SBMOF-1, as the most selective for Xe over Kr.9,10 Here, we affirm this prediction and report that SBMOF-1 exhibits by far the highest Xe adsorption capacity and a remarkable Xe/Kr selectivity under relevant nuclear reprocessing conditions. The exceptional selectivity of SBMOF-1 is attributed to its pore size tailored to Xe and its dense wall of atoms that constructs a binding site with a high affinity for Xe, as evident by single crystal X-ray diffraction and molecular simulation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Efficient hydrogen evolution by ternary molybdenum sulfoselenide particles on self-standing porous nickel diselenide foam

With the massive consumption of fossil fuels and its detrimental impact on the environment, methods of generating clean power are urgent. Hydrogen is an ideal carrier for renewable energy; however, hydrogen generation is inefficient because of the lack of robust catalysts that are substantially cheaper than platinum. Therefore, robust and durable earth-abundant and cost-effective catalysts are desirable for hydrogen generation from water splitting via hydrogen evolution reaction. In this paper, we report an active and durable earth-abundant transition metal dichalcogenide-based hybrid catalyst that exhibits high hydrogen evolution activity approaching the state-of-the-art platinum catalysts, and superior to those of most transition metal dichalcogenides (molybdenum sulfide, cobalt diselenide and so on). Our material is fabricated by growing ternary molybdenum sulfoselenide particles on self-standing porous nickel diselenide foam. This advance provides a different pathway to design cheap, efficient and sizable hydrogen-evolving electrode by simultaneously tuning the number of catalytic edge sites, porosity, heteroatom doping and electrical conductivity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2017

The climate and air-quality benefits of wind and solar power in the United States

Wind and solar energy reduce combustion-based electricity generation and provide air-quality and greenhouse gas emission benefits. These benefits vary dramatically by region and over time. From 2007 to 2015, solar and wind power deployment increased rapidly while regulatory changes and fossil fuel price changes led to steep cuts in overall power-sector emissions. In this paper, we evaluate how wind and solar climate and air-quality benefits evolved during this time period. We find cumulative wind and solar air-quality benefits of 2015 US$29.7–112.8 billion mostly from 3,000 to 12,700 avoided premature mortalities, and cumulative climate benefits of 2015 US5.3–106.8 billion. The ranges span results across a suite of air-quality and health impact models and social cost of carbon estimates. Finally, we find that binding cap-and-trade pollutant markets may reduce these cumulative benefits by up to 16%. In 2015, based on central estimates, combined marginal benefits equal 7.3 ¢ kWh -1 (wind) and 4.0 ¢ kWh -1 (solar).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30–90 °S) by 52%, with a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m –2 globally and 0.22 W m –2 over East Asia. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Unraveling substituent effects on the glass transition temperatures of biorenewable polyesters

Converting biomass-based feedstocks into polymers not only reduces our reliance on fossil fuels, but also furnishes multiple opportunities to design biorenewable polymers with targeted properties and functionalities. Here we report a series of high glass transition temperature (T g up to 184°C) polyesters derived from sugar-based furan derivatives as well as a joint experimental and theoretical study of substituent effects on their thermal properties. Surprisingly, we find that polymers with moderate steric hindrance exhibit the highest T g values. Through a detailed Ramachandran-type analysis of the rotational flexibility of the polymer backbone, we find that additional steric hindrance does not necessarily increase chain stiffness in these polyesters. We attribute this interesting structure-property relationship to a complex interplay between methyl-induced steric strain and the concerted rotations along the polymer backbone. We believe that our findings provide key insight into the relationship between structure and thermal properties across a range of synthetic polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sub-second and ppm-level optical sensing of hydrogen using templated control of nano-hydride geometry and composition

Abstract The use of hydrogen as a clean and renewable alternative to fossil fuels requires a suite of flammability mitigating technologies, particularly robust sensors for hydrogen leak detection and concentration monitoring. To this end, we have developed a class of lightweight optical hydrogen sensors based on a metasurface of Pd nano-patchy particle arrays, which fulfills the increasing requirements of a safe hydrogen fuel sensing system with no risk of sparking. The structure of the optical sensor is readily nano-engineered to yield extraordinarily rapid response to hydrogen gas (<3 s at 1 mbar H 2 ) with a high degree of accuracy (<5%). By incorporating 20% Ag, Au or Co, the sensing performances of the Pd-alloy sensor are significantly enhanced, especially for the Pd 80 Co 20 sensor whose optical response time at 1 mbar of H 2 is just ~0.85 s, while preserving the excellent accuracy (<2.5%), limit of detection (2.5 ppm), and robustness against aging, temperature, and interfering gases. The superior performance of our sensor places it among the fastest and most sensitive optical hydrogen sensors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests

Abstract Biophysical effects from deforestation have the potential to amplify carbon losses but are often neglected in carbon accounting systems. Here we use both Earth system model simulations and satellite–derived estimates of aboveground biomass to assess losses of vegetation carbon caused by the influence of tropical deforestation on regional climate across different continents. In the Amazon, warming and drying arising from deforestation result in an additional 5.1 ± 3.7% loss of aboveground biomass. Biophysical effects also amplify carbon losses in the Congo (3.8 ± 2.5%) but do not lead to significant additional carbon losses in tropical Asia due to its high levels of annual mean precipitation. These findings indicate that tropical forests may be undervalued in carbon accounting systems that neglect climate feedbacks from surface biophysical changes and that the positive carbon–climate feedback from deforestation-driven climate change is higher than the feedback originating from fossil fuel emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economy-wide evaluation of CO 2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States

Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO 2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO 2 and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM 2.5 sources—such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions—can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO 2 policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of a micro-combined heat and power powered by an opposed-piston engine in building applications

Residential homes and light commercial buildings usually require substantial heat and electricity simultaneously. A combined heat and power system enables more efficient and environmentally friendly energy usage than that achieved when heat and electricity are produced in separate processes. However, due to financial and space constraints, residential and light commercial buildings often limit the use of traditional large-scale industrial equipment. Here we develop a micro–combined heat and power system powered by an opposed-piston engine to simultaneously generate electricity and provide heat to residential homes or light commercial buildings. The developed prototype attains the maximum AC electrical efficiency of 35.2%. The electrical efficiency breaks the typical upper boundary of 30% for micro–combined heat and power systems using small internal combustion engines (i.e., <10 kW). Moreover, the developed prototype enables maximum combined electrical and thermal efficiencies greater than 93%. The prototype is optimally designed for natural gas but can also run renewable biogas and hydrogen, supporting the transition from current conventional fossil fuels to zero carbon emissions in the future. The analysis of the unit’s decarbonization and cost-saving potential indicate that, except for specific locations, the developed prototype might excel in achieving decarbonization and cost savings primarily in US northern and middle climate zones.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗