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Decentralized control of large flexible structures by joint decoupling

A decentralized control design method is presented for large complex flexible structures by using the idea of joint decoupling. The derivation is based on a coupled substructure state-space model, which is obtained from enforcing conditions of interface compatibility and equilibrium to the substructure state-space models. It is shown that by restricting the control law to be localized state feedback and by setting the joint actuator input commands to decouple joint 'degrees of freedom' (dof) from interior dof, the global structure control design problem can be decomposed into several substructure control design problems. The substructure control gains and substructure observers are designed based on modified substructure state-space models. The controllers produced by the proposed method can operate successfully at the individual substructure level as well as at the global structure level. Therefore, not only control design but also control implementation is decentralized. Stability and performance requirement of the closed-loop system can be achieved by using any existing state feedback control design method. A two-component mass-spring damper system and a three-truss structure are used as examples to demonstrate the proposed method.

Su, Tzu-Jeng↗

Creating Portfolio Management Concepts for Highly Agile and Innovative Government Research Programs Using Design Thinking and Lean Startup Methodologies

Managing a research and development (R&D) portfolio presents numerous challenges, such as prioritizing research areas, remaining agile, strategic workforce planning, and measuring return on investment, impact, and innovation. One government R&D program is charged with producing a high degree of innovative, transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology. A practical, structured methodology for strategically prioritizing emerging aviation R&D in such an environment is lacking. The existing multi-criteria decision aid tools are primarily utilized at an enterprise level, take months to set up and collect data, require large teams of experts, are used on an infrequent basis, and are not conducive to a highly innovative, high-risk portfolio. Prior to audaciously creating a new portfolio prioritization process, the exact challenges with portfolio management for R&D projects were identified using the design thinking and lean start-up methods. A key part of this discovery process was interviewing stakeholders, as well as other managers of organizations charged with producing innovative portfolios. These interviews, as well as additional techniques, were used to develop a deeper understanding of the challenges and, subsequently, lay the foundation for development of an effective portfolio prioritization process. Four potential concepts that represent key findings emerged: carefully selected criteria for portfolio assessment and selection, targeted portfolio turnover rate, dynamic portfolio prioritization framework, and streamlined transition or commercialization of R&D. Acting on any one of the resulting portfolio management concepts will increase the transparency and confidence in portfolio decisions and, ideally, result in a greater degree of transformational breakthroughs in aviation technology.

project portfolio management↗

Use of Minute-by-Minute Cardiovascular Measurements During Tilt Tests to Strengthen Inference on the Effect of Long-Duration Space Flight on Orthostatic Hypotension

Typical methodology for evaluating the effects of spaceflight on orthostatic hypotension (OH) has been survival analysis of tolerance times from 80 head-up tilt tests. However when scheduled test durations are short, there may not be enough failures to allow survival analysis to adequately estimate and compare the effects of flight phase (e.g. pre-flight, number of days post-flight), flight duration, and their interaction, as well as interactions with effects of interventions or countermeasures. The problem is exacerbated in the presence of a repeated measures design, in which subjects participate in tilt tests during various flight phases. Here we show how it is possible to dramatically improve the efficiency of statistical inference in this setting by making use of the additional information contained in minute-by-minute observations of cardiovascular parameters thought to be reflective of progression towards presyncope during tilt testing. Methods: We retrospectively examined operational tilt test (OTT; 10 -min 80 head-up tilt) data from 20 International Space Station (ISS) and 66 Shuttle astronauts 10 d before launch (L-10), on landing day (R+0) and during recovery (R+1, R+3, R+6-10) depending on the level of participation. Data from 5 ISS astronauts tested on R+0 or R+1 who used non-standard countermeasures were excluded. In addition to OTT survival time, 8 cardiovascular parameters (CP: heart rate, systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressure, pulse pressure, stroke volume, cardiac output, and total peripheral resistance) that might be predictive of progression towards presyncope were measured every minute of each OTT. Statistical analysis was predicated on a two ]stage model of causation. In the first stage, flight duration and time from landing affect the astronauts' degree of OH, which is manifested in the time trends and variation of the above CPs during OTTs. In the second stage, the behavior of these parameters directly affects OTT survival time. Actual analysis proceeded in the opposite direction. First we identified those CPs or linear combinations that best predicted OTT survival regardless of what spaceflight conditions led to OTT completion or presyncope. From these, we calculated a summary statistic (one per OTT) that best predicted survival. We then used mixed ]model regression analysis to relate changes in the summary statistic to flight phase and duration. Inference on the effects of phase, duration, and their interaction on OH follows directly from this second analysis. Results: A linear combination (W) of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and stroke volume (SV) was found to be the best predictor of OTT survival using the complete data set of minute-by-minute observations of CPs for each OTT. Furthermore, the log-transformed standard deviation of W (Z = log SW) was found to be a strong predictor of survival in the reduced data set consisting of one observation per OTT. In other words, this measure of variability of W during an OTT was the best indicator of whether or not the subject could complete the 10-min test, with higher variability (i.e. higher values of Z) being associated with greater probability of failure. In the mixed-model regression analysis where Z was now treated as a outcome with flight phase and duration groups (ISS and STS) as predictors, we found that there was a significantly more variability in W (higher values of Z) for both groups at R+0, but with no evidence of an interaction until R+3, when the ISS group still had inflated variability, but not the STS group. Conclusions: Variability of the cardiovascular index W recovers more slowly after long-compared to short-duration spaceflight. Since high variability of W has also been shown to be predictive of OTT failure, a primary manifestation of OH, a logical conclusion is that recovery from OH also is slower after long-duration compared to short-duration spaceflights.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

Mass Spectrometric Determination of Uranium and Thorium in High Radiopurity Polymers Using Ultra Low Background Electroformed Copper Crucibles for Dry Ashing

A rapid new method for determining the U and Th mass concentrations in high radiopurity plastics is described, consisting of 1) dry ashing the plastic sample and tracers in low mass crucibles made of ultra low background electroformed copper (ULB EF-Cu) foil cut and folded into boats, 2) dissolving both the ash and the boat in acid, 3) performing a column separation to remove copper, and 4) determining the elements of interest by isotope dilution mass spectrometry. This method was demonstrated on both unfluorinated and fluorinated plastics, demonstrating high tracer recoveries and detection limits to pg/g (i.e., parts per trillion) levels or below, corresponding to μBq/kg of material. Samples of biomedical polyester (Max-Prene® 955) and a fluoropolymer (polyvinylidene fluoride, PVDF) were analyzed in powder raw material forms as well as solids in the form of pellets or injection molded parts. The polyester powder contained 6 pg/g and 2 pg/g for Th and U respectively. These levels correspond to 25 and 25 μBq/kg radioactivity, respectively. Determinations on samples of PVDF powder were typically below 1 pg/g for Th and 2 pg/g for U, corresponding to 4 and 25 μBq/kg radioactivity, respectively. The use of low mass ULB EF-Cu boats for dry ashing successfully overcame the problem of crucible-generated contaminants in the analysis; absolute detection limits, calculated as 3 × standard deviation of the process blanks, were typically 20-100 fg within a sample set. Complete dissolution of the ash and low mass boat provided high tracer recoveries, and provides a convincing method to recover both the tracer and sample isotopes when full equilibration of tracer isotopes with sample isotopes is not possible prior to beginning chemical sample processing on solids.

EFCu Electroformed copper↗

Disentangling Sources of Gene Tree Discordance in Phylogenomic Data Sets: Testing Ancient Hybridizations in Amaranthaceae s.l

Gene tree discordance in large genomic data sets can be caused by evolutionary processes such as incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization, as well as model violation, and errors in data processing, orthology inference, and gene tree estimation. Species tree methods that identify and accommodate all sources of conflict are not available, but a combination of multiple approaches can help tease apart alternative sources of conflict. Here, using a phylotranscriptomic analysis in combination with reference genomes, we test a hypothesis of ancient hybridization events within the plant family Amaranthaceae s.l. that was previously supported by morphological, ecological, and Sanger-based molecular data. The data set included seven genomes and 88 transcriptomes, 17 generated for this study. We examined gene-tree discordance using coalescent-based species trees and network inference, gene tree discordance analyses, site pattern tests of introgression, topology tests, synteny analyses, and simulations. We found that a combination of processes might have generated the high levels of gene tree discordance in the backbone of Amaranthaceae s.l. Furthermore, we found evidence that three consecutive short internal branches produce anomalous trees contributing to the discordance. Overall, our results suggest that Amaranthaceae s.l. might be a product of an ancient and rapid lineage diversification, and remains, and probably will remain, unresolved. This work highlights the potential problems of identifiability associated with the sources of gene tree discordance including, in particular, phylogenetic network methods. Our results also demonstrate the importance of thoroughly testing for multiple sources of conflict in phylogenomic analyses, especially in the context of ancient, rapid radiations. We provide several recommendations for exploring conflicting signals in such situations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method

Ramping products have been introduced or proposed in several U.S. power markets to mitigate the impact of load and renewable uncertainties on market efficiency and reliability. Current methods often rely on historical data to estimate the requirements of ramping products and fail to take into account the effects of the latest weather conditions and their uncertainties, which could lead to overly conservative or insufficient requirements. This study proposes a k-nearest-neighbor-based method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping needs based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. Forecasts from multiple sites are employed in conjunction with principal component analysis to derive numerical classifiers to characterize system-level weather conditions. In addition, we develop a data-driven method to optimize the model parameters in a rolling-forward manner. By using real-world data from the California Independent System Operator, we design two metrics to evaluate method performance: 1) frequency of shortage and 2) oversupply of ramping product. Our proposed method presents advantages in comparison with the baseline and a set of benchmark methods: without compromising system reliability, it reduces system ramping requirements by up to 25%, therefore improving both system reliability and economics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

On the geometric dependence of the molecular dipole polarizability in water: A benchmark study of higher-order electron correlation, basis set incompleteness error, core electron effects, and zero-point vibrational contributions

In this work, we investigate how geometric changes influence the static dipole polarizability ($α$) of a water molecule by explicitly computing the corresponding dipole polarizability surface (DPS) across 3125 total (1625 symmetry-unique) geometries using linear response coupled cluster theory including single, double, and triple excitations (LR-CCSDT) and the doubly augmented triple-$ζ$ basis set (d-aug-cc-pVTZ). Analytical formulae based on power series expansions of this $ab initio$ surface are generated using linear least-squares analysis and provide highly accurate estimates of this quantity as a function of molecular geometry (i.e., bond and angle variations) in a computationally tractable manner. An additional database, which consists of 25 representative molecular geometries and incorporates a more thorough treatment of both basis sets and core electron effects, is provided as a current benchmark for this quantity and the corresponding leading-order $C_6$ dispersion coefficient. This database has been utilized to assess the importance of these effects as well as the relative accuracy that can be obtained using several quantum chemical methods and a library of density functional approximations. In addition to high-level electron correlation methods (like CCSD) and our analytical least-squares formulae, we find that the SCAN0, PBE0, MN15, and B97-2 hybrid functionals yield the most accurate descriptions of the molecular polarizability tensor in H 2 O. Using first-order perturbation theory, we compute the zero-point vibrational correction to $α$ at the CCSDT/d-aug-cc-pVTZ level and find that this correction contributes approximately 3% to the isotropic ($α$ iso ) and nearly 50% to the anisotropic ($α$ aniso ) polarizability values. In doing so, we find that $α$ iso = 9.8307 bohr 3 , which is in excellent agreement with the experimental value of 9.83 ± 0.02 bohr 3 provided by Russell and Spackman. The DPS reported herein provides a benchmark-quality quantum mechanical estimate of this fundamental quantity of interest and should find extensive use in the development (and assessment) of next-generation force fields and machine-learning based approaches for modeling water in complex condensed-phase environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Discriminative versus generative approaches to simulation-based inference

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is inherently lossy, since histograms are binned and low-dimensional. Deep learning has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional parameter estimation through neural likelihood(-ratio) estimation. We compare two approaches for neural simulation-based inference (NSBI): one based on discriminative learning (classification) and one based on generative modeling. These two approaches are directly evaluated on the same datasets, with a similar level of hyperparameter optimization in both cases. In addition to a Gaussian dataset, we study NSBI using a Higgs boson dataset from the FAIR Universe Challenge. We find that both the direct likelihood and likelihood ratio estimation are able to effectively extract parameters with reasonable uncertainties. For the numerical examples and within the set of hyperparameters studied, we found that the likelihood ratio method is more accurate and/or precise. Both methods have a significant spread from the network training and would require ensembling or other mitigation strategies in practice.

high energy physics↗

CSGL: chemical synthesis graph learning for molecule representation

Abstract Motivation Molecule representation learning (MRL) translates molecules into a real vector space, serving as input to downstream tasks in biology, chemistry, and computer science. This article introduces a chemical synthesis graph learning (CSGL) framework, which enhances MRL by considering both the atomic structures of molecules and their roles in chemical reactions through a hierarchical graph representation. Specifically, molecules are first modeled based on their molecular graphs, which capture atomic-level structural information. They are then further refined using a chemical synthesis graph, where nodes represent reactant and product molecule sets, and edges encode chemical transformations between reactants and products (e.g. changes in molecular structures). CSGL optimizes molecular embeddings of reactant and product nodes in a fashion that ensures the embeddings conform to a chemical balance constraint. Results Experimental results show that our method CSGL achieves strong performance on a variety of tasks, including product prediction, reaction classification, and molecular property prediction. Availability and implementation https://github.com/li-2023/CSGL.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

The Architecture of Metabolism Maximizes Biosynthetic Diversity in the Largest Class of Fungi

Abstract Ecological diversity in fungi is largely defined by metabolic traits, including the ability to produce secondary or “specialized” metabolites (SMs) that mediate interactions with other organisms. Fungal SM pathways are frequently encoded in biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs), which facilitate the identification and characterization of metabolic pathways. Variation in BGC composition reflects the diversity of their SM products. Recent studies have documented surprising diversity of BGC repertoires among isolates of the same fungal species, yet little is known about how this population-level variation is inherited across macroevolutionary timescales. Here, we applied a novel linkage-based algorithm to reveal previously unexplored dimensions of diversity in BGC composition, distribution, and repertoire across 101 species of Dothideomycetes, which are considered the most phylogenetically diverse class of fungi and known to produce many SMs. We predicted both complementary and overlapping sets of clustered genes compared with existing methods and identified novel gene pairs that associate with known secondary metabolite genes. We found that variation among sets of BGCs in individual genomes is due to nonoverlapping BGC combinations and that several BGCs have biased ecological distributions, consistent with niche-specific selection. We observed that total BGC diversity scales linearly with increasing repertoire size, suggesting that secondary metabolites have little structural redundancy in individual fungi. We project that there is substantial unsampled BGC diversity across specific families of Dothideomycetes, which will provide a roadmap for future sampling efforts. Our approach and findings lend new insight into how BGC diversity is generated and maintained across an entire fungal taxonomic class.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Limits on Stellar-Mass Compact Objects as Dark Matter from Gravitational Lensing of Type Ia Supernovae

We present that the nature of dark matter (DM) remains unknown despite very precise knowledge of its abundance in the Universe. An alternative to new elementary particles postulates DM as made of macroscopic compact halo objects (MACHO) such as black holes formed in the very early Universe. Stellar-mass primordial black holes (PBHs) are subject to less robust constraints than other mass ranges and might be connected to gravitational-wave signals detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO). New methods are therefore necessary to constrain the viability of compact objects as a DM candidate. Here we report bounds on the abundance of compact objects from gravitational lensing of type Ia supernovae (SNe). Current SNe data sets constrain compact objects to represent less than 35.2% (Joint Lightcurve Analysis) and 37.2% (Union 2.1) of the total matter content in the Universe, at 95% confidence level. The results are valid for masses larger than ~ 0.01 M ⊙ (solar masses), limited by the size SNe relative to the lens Einstein radius. We demonstrate the mass range of the constraints by computing magnification probabilities for realistic SNe sizes and different values of the PBH mass. Our bounds are sensitive to the total abundance of compact objects with M ≳ 0.01 M ⊙ and complementary to other observational tests. These results are robust against cosmological parameters, outlier rejection, correlated noise, and selection bias. PBHs and other MACHOs are therefore ruled out as the dominant form of DM for objects associated to LIGO gravitational wave detections. Lastly, these bounds constrain early-Universe models that predict stellar-mass PBH production and strengthen the case for lighter forms of DM, including new elementary particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Model-ready benchmarks for NPP, ANPP, litter fluxes, and recruitment into the 1 cm dbh size class

The intended use of this dataset is to serve as an observational benchmark to evaluate model predictions of NPP, ANPP, litter fluxes, and recruitment at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. This dataset contains four CSV files and one text file. “Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.csv” provides estimates of annual ecosystem-level reproductive litter flux (R), leaf litter flux (L), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and net primary productivity (NPP) for 61 field plots throughout tropical, temperate, and boreal forest biomes. An additional 499 plots (n = 550) include estimates of just R, L, and R/L. Each row reports a distinct set of estimates for one sampling interval at one plot. “Metadata-Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.csv” contains field descriptions for all data fields in “Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.csv”. “References-Benchmarks-NPP-ANPP-R-L.txt” contains full references to the original studies used to produce the observations at each plot included in the data. “Benchmarks-Recruitment.csv” provides estimates of species-level recruitment rates into the 1 cm dbh size class at four CTFS-ForestGeo sites using methods that account for unobserved mortality of new recruits between census intervals (Kohyama et al., 2018). “Metadata-Benchmarks-Recruitment.csv” contains field descriptions for all data fields in “Benchmarks-Recruitment.csv”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ultrasonic Measurements of Temperature Profile and Heat Fluxes in Coal-Fired Power Plants (Final Report)

Many industrial processes are inaccessible or inhospitable to characterization by traditional temperature measurement methods, such as thermocouples, especially over prolonged exposure to harsh environments. Ultrasound is an established characterization technology with diverse applications ranging from medical imaging to therapies to flaw detection to nondestructive evaluation. Ultrasound may characterize solid materials and components noninvasively as a nondestructive evaluation modality and obtain internal measurements of material properties. For example, the speed of ultrasound propagation changes with Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which can be found from its measurements. Traditional ultrasonic characterization assumes all material properties remain constant with the position. When this assumption holds, a property of interest may be measured by relating it to the speed of ultrasound propagation (or a speed of sound, SOS) and measuring the SOS by timing the ultrasound propagation through a known distance. However, when a property of interest is spatially distributed, the propagation time depends on the SOS changing with the position along the ultrasound propagation path. The multiple temperature distributions may lead to an identical time of flight (TOF). Temperature is one property that impacts the speed of ultrasound and often cannot be assumed to remain constant with the position. Previously, in the context of temperature, we addressed the challenge of ultrasonic characterization of spatially distributed properties by developing a method for measuring segmental temperature distributions (MSTD). This method divides the ultrasonic propagation into segments bound by echogenic features. These features provide ultrasonic interfaces where some energy is reflected toward the receiving transducer, and the rest continues through the medium. The time-of-flight between the echoes reflected from echogenic features characterizes the spatial distribution in the properties of interest in the corresponding segment of the ultrasonic propagation path. This project demonstrated the application of the MSTD method in industrial conditions of the coal-fired power plant. We implemented the MSTD using metals and alloys waveguides, which may be the existing structure for which the temperature distribution is characterized or purposefully designed waveguides added to the structure by welding or other means specifically to quantify thermal properties using the MSTD method. Previous iterations of the MSTD method used ceramic and cementitious waveguides, which significantly attenuate ultrasound. On the other hand, low attenuation in metallic waveguides creates interactions between echogenic features which compilates the signal analysis in the segmental TOF measurements. We have established the WG design principles that minimize the interferences between trailing and primary echoes and, in some cases, eliminate them. The waveguides in which echoes do not interfere improve the timing accuracy and the robustness of ultrasonic measurements of the spatial distributions in material properties. Our emphasis remained on the estimation of the temperature distributions. We have developed general recommendations for designing ultrasonically segmented waveguides with the reduced influence of trailing echoes. Two of our waveguide designs were tested in the industry. The first waveguide was designed for insertion into a combustion zone of the utility-scale coal-fired power plant boiler. The second design allows the characterization of temperature distribution in the direction normal to the boiler’s water wall, a large heat exchanger converting the chemical energy released during combustion to the steam driving the electrical power generation turbines. These waveguides were designed to operate within a restrictive space of thermally insulated water wall and incorporate densely located echogenic features while combatting the influence of trailing echoes. The project has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using the developed method for accurate, continuous, and robust temperature measurements in extreme environments of power generation and other industrial processes. It, therefore, has achieved its overarching goal of advancing the technology readiness level of the novel Ultrasound Measurements of Segmental Temperature Distribution (US-MSTD) method for real-time measurements of the temperature distribution and heat fluxes closer to commercial availability, developing a prototype multipoint measurement system, and validating its performance on coal-fired utility boilers. The success of this project was achieved in collaboration with the power generator, Rocky Mountain Power, and set the stage for the transfer of this technology from the laboratory to the industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Assessing the impact of different satellite retrieval methods on forecast available potential energy

The effects of the inclusion of satellite temperature retrieval data, and of different satellite retrieval methods, on forecasts made with the NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) fourth-order model were investigated using, as the parameter, the available potential energy (APE) in its isentropic form. Calculation of the APE were used to study the differences in the forecast sets both globally and in the Northern Hemisphere during 72-h forecast period. The analysis data sets used for the forecasts included one containing the NESDIS TIROS-N retrievals, the GLA retrievals using the physical inversion method, and a third, which did not contain satellite data, used as a control; two data sets, with and without satellite data, were used for verification. For all three data sets, the Northern Hemisphere values for the total APE showed an increase throughout the forecast period, mostly due to an increase in the zonal component, in contrast to the verification sets, which showed a steady level of total APE.

Whittaker, Linda M.↗

Development and Evaluation of Fault-Tolerant Flight Control Systems

The research is concerned with developing a new approach to enhancing fault tolerance of flight control systems. The original motivation for fault-tolerant control comes from the need for safe operation of control elements (e.g. actuators) in the event of hardware failures in high reliability systems. One such example is modem space vehicle subjected to actuator/sensor impairments. A major task in flight control is to revise the control policy to balance impairment detectability and to achieve sufficient robustness. This involves careful selection of types and parameters of the controllers and the impairment detecting filters used. It also involves a decision, upon the identification of some failures, on whether and how a control reconfiguration should take place in order to maintain a certain system performance level. In this project new flight dynamic model under uncertain flight conditions is considered, in which the effects of both ramp and jump faults are reflected. Stabilization algorithms based on neural network and adaptive method are derived. The control algorithms are shown to be effective in dealing with uncertain dynamics due to external disturbances and unpredictable faults. The overall strategy is easy to set up and the computation involved is much less as compared with other strategies. Computer simulation software is developed. A serious of simulation studies have been conducted with varying flight conditions.

Song, Yong D.↗

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a large number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. A set of GPS error sources relevant to this project are those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined &om the analysis of GPS data, including possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference frames. This is were our research activities during this reporting period have concentrated. During this reporting period, we have researched two topics: (1) The effect of errors on the GPS satellite antenna models (or lack thereof) on global GPS vertical position and velocity estimates; (2) The effect of reference W e definition and practice on estimates of the geocenter variations.

Elosegui, Pedro↗

An Off-Axis Four-Quadrant Phase Mask (FQPM) Coronagraph for Palomar: High-Contrast Near Bright Stars Imager

Direct detection of planets around nearby stars requires the development of high-contrast imaging techniques because of the high difference between their respective fluxes. This led us to test a new coronagraphic approach based on the use of phase mask instead of dark occulting ones. Combined with high-level wavefront correction on an unobscured off-axis section of a large telescope, this method allows imaging very close to the star. Calculations indicate that for a given ground-based on-axis telescope, use of such an off-axis coronagraph provides a near-neighbor detection capability superior to that of a traditional coronagraph utilizing the full telescope aperture. Setting up a laboratory experiment working in near infrared allowed us to demonstrate the principle of the method, and a rejection of 2000:1 has already been achieved.

coronagraphy↗

Affordable Development Strategy for NEP Nuclear Systems

One nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) reactor systems under consideration is a hydride moderated thermal spectrum reactor fueled by high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). While such a reactor is expected to yield the lightest HALEU reactor design, its development challenges grow exponentially with increasing mission demands, most notably power output, specific weight of the overall system (which may require operation at temperatures exceeding 1200 K), service lifetime, and human-rated reliability. Two of the greatest cost drivers are full-powered nuclear demonstrations and extensive material development campaigns, so it is important to consider options that can minimize the need for or complexity of such tasks. This paper discusses a structured framework being developed for assessing how NEP design choices, such as materials selection, neutronic features, and heat-removal technologies, can translate into project risk and how project performance goals can be traded with development cost.Reactors operating at high temperatures often require cutting-edge heat transfer technologies and creep-resistant materials. Use of new materials in high temperature reactors brings additional complication beyond those common to any new space materials development campaign. For example, such materials may not possess necessary neutronic cross-sectional or neutronic irradiation data. Similarly, use of new materials may significantly influence core neutronics; in some extreme cases, neutronic reactivity feed-back of certain new materials can vary during their service life as radiation damage impacts the scattering cross-section. In an affordable development approach, high fidelity modeling and simulation tools are used to identify and characterize potential ‘knees-in-the-curves’ in the relationship that exists between the mission characteristics and the project risk. Of particular significance is use of modern uncertainty management and variance reduction methods to perform gap analyses that feed into phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) commonly used to communicate nuclear readiness levels. Model-based measurements techniques are used to design sub-scale experiments as a substitute to minimize orcompletely eliminate the need for nuclear demonstrations.This paper will describe the approach and present preliminary results. It will lay the groundwork for developing a set of metrics that can be broadly characterized as system nuclear readiness levels and advancement degree of difficulty for nuclear systems. Equally importantly, a goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue among stakeholders on what is the sufficient level of maturity that is required for launching a demonstration unit.

Dasari V Rao↗