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At least 991 records · Page 55

Enabling Assurance in the MBSE Environment

A number of specific benefits that fit within the hallmarks of effective development are realized with implementation of model-based approaches to systems and assurance. Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) enabled by standardized modeling languages (e.g., SysML®) is at the core. These benefits in the context of spaceflight system challenges can include [1]: • Improved management of complex development • Reduced risk in the development process • Improved cost management • Improved design decisions With appropriate modeling techniques the assurance community also can improve early oversight and insight into project development. NASA has shown the basic constructs of SysML in an MBSE environment offer several key advantages, within a Model Based Mission Assurance (MBMA) initiative [2, 3]. These include the following: • Model viewpoints that promote rapid and systematic assessment of requirements coverage, hazard tagging and risk management • Embedded safety assessments for launch vehicles • Deployment of model assisted development of reliability products - Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEAs) and Fault Trees • Test Planning • Validation and Verification of complex functions • Support of Assurance Case development for complex systems In addition, while there are benefits to be harvested, there is a realization that these do not come without effort and cost. Enabling model-based approaches requires structure, not only in an organizational context, but in a modeling context as well. There can be a steep learning curve and costs associated to train skilled modelers. But, on the other hand, not all of the assurance community need to be modelers. Models themselves must conform to ontologies that enable assurance. This places constraints upon the models and modelers. Optimums have yet to be developed where resources and constraints on modeling must be traded off in the organization and modeling efforts for projects. A number of barriers need to be overcome, as well, which pose challenges to the developers of the software that supports MBSE/MBMA. Information and data must be made to flow seamlessly through the life cycle. Because there is a wide variety of tools used in the community, to avoid the problems of the past of silos, delays, and diverging interests, information should flow among these tools to support the “single source of truth” paradigm of MBSE. This will greatly facilitate MBMA and advancement of assurance functions.

Evans, John W.↗

Towards an Aviation Large Language Model by Fine-tuning and Evaluating Transformers

In the aviation domain, there are many applications for machine learning and artificial intelligence tools that utilize natural language. For example, there is a desire to know the commonalities in written safety reports such as voluntary post incidents reports or aerial wildfire operations reports to better understand the risks present. Another use-case is the possibility of extracting airspace procedures and constraints currently written in documents such as Letters of Agreement. These applications can benefit from the use of state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques when adapted to the language/phraseology specific to the aviation domain. This paper evaluates the viability of adaptation of NLP tools to the aviation domain by fine-tuning transformer based models using aviation data sets. In 2018, a novel language model based on neural units (also called transformers) was created and became known as “Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers” or BERT. This architecture combined with large amounts of English training data and innovative semi-supervised training tasks set the standard for what would later emerge as Large Language Models. The performance of these models was further improved by hyperparameter tuning and refinement of the semi-supervised training task and resulted in “Robustly Optimized BERT Pre-training Approach through hyperparameter tuning” or RoBERTa models. These pre-trained Large Language Models proved to be useful for a wide variety of natural language processing tasks such as text classification and question answering through a process called fine-tuning. The transformer architecture with pre-trained weights served as the basis with the last few layers replaced with layers fine-tuned to perform a new task e.g., a layer that provides a label for the entire input text. This process of fine-tuning can also be used to adapt the models to new domains; e.g., BioBERT started with the pre-trained BERT model and was completed by additional fine-tuning and training on biomedical documents. Transformer-based architectures can also be used to create rich representations of text called embeddings which can serve as the input to other machine learning models. This allows simpler algorithms such as logistic regression to use context-rich representations of the text while still remaining quick to train and evaluate. In the world of aviation, there is a growing demand for natural language processing and understanding but the domain presents unique challenges. Due to the technical content (and specialized language) of most aviation documents, fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models to specific tasks has not met the benchmark on natural language processing tasks set by simpler models trained from scratch on the data. To address this deficiency, this paper evaluates the improvements from fine-tuning a Large Language Model on a large set of aviation documents using the original semi-supervised training tasks before performing specific natural language tasks. In fine-tuning, a domain-specific dataset is used on the original training task but with the pre-trained Large Language Model instead of starting from a random initialization. This approach allows the model to be adapted to the specific domain language without discarding the information gained from training on general English data. This paper utilized two major dataset types to train and assess the RoBERTa fine-tuning performance. The first are 7,057 Letters of Agreement which are Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) documents that formalize airspace operations across the national airspace system. They contain many examples of ‘aviation English’ using domain specific terminology and phrasing which serves as a representative basis to perform the semi-supervised fine-tuning. The second type is the 494 document classification labels to be used for evaluation. This down-stream evaluation aims to show the performance of the fine-tuned model, better understand how much data is needed for an effective fine-tuning, and how fine-tuning can be adapted for different applications in-the domain. After semi-supervised training, evaluation begins by encoding the documents for classification using the fine-tuned RoBERTa model. Then a logistic regression classifier is trained to label the document type and compared against our ground truth labels. This currently leads to a 82.8% accuracy on 10-fold cross validation showing improvement over baseline RoBERTa which achieved 81.0%. We plan to measure the improvements on additional tasks and it is expected that these improvements will lead to more robust models that can tackle the natural language processing challenges present in aviation datasets.

ATM↗

Optimum employment of satellite indirect soundings as numerical model input

The characteristics of satellite-derived temperature soundings that would significantly affect their use as input for numerical weather prediction models were examined. Independent evaluations of satellite soundings were emphasized to better define error characteristics. Results of a Nimbus-6 sounding study reveal an underestimation of the strength of synoptic scale troughs and ridges, and associated gradients in isobaric height and temperature fields. The most significant errors occurred near the Earth's surface and the tropopause. Soundings from the TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellites were also evaluated. Results again showed an underestimation of upper level trough amplitudes leading to weaker thermal gradient depictions in satellite-only fields. These errors show a definite correlation to the synoptic flow patterns. In a satellite-only analysis used to initialize a numerical model forecast, it was found that these synoptically correlated errors were retained in the forecast sequence.

Horn, L. H.↗

Ocean-Science Mission Needs: Real-Time AUV Data for Command, Control, and Model Inputs

Predictive models for tides, hydrodynamics, and bio-optical properties affecting the visibility and buoyancy of coastal waters are needed to evaluate the safety of personnel and equipment engaged in maritime operations under potentially hazardous conditions. Predicted currents can be markedly different for two-layer systems affected by terrestrial runoff than for well-mixed conditions because the layering decouples the surface and bottom Ekman layers and rectifies the current response to oscillatory upwelling-and downwelling-favorable winds. Standard ocean models (e.g. Princeton Ocean Model) require initial-and boundary data on the physical and optical properties of the multilayered water column to provide accurate simulations of heat budgets and circulation. Two observational systems are designed to measure vertically structured conditions on the West Florida Shelf (WFS): a tethered buoy network and an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) observational system. The AUV system is described with a focus on the observational systems that challenge or limit the communications command and control network for various types of measurement programs. These include vertical oscillatory missions on shelf transects to observe the optical and hydrographic properties of the water column, and bottom-following missions for measuring the bottom albedo. Models of light propagation, absorption, and conversion to heat as well as determination of the buoyancy terms for physical models require these measurements. High data rates associated with video bottom imagery are the most challenging for the real-time, command and control communications system, but they are met through a combination of loss-less and lossy data-compression methods, depending upon the data-rate of the radio links.

Carder, Kendall L.↗

Numerical simulation of ice growth on a MS-317 swept wing geometry

An effort to develop a 3-D ice accretion modeling method was initiated. This first step towards creation of a complete aircraft icing simulation code builds on previously developed methods for calculating 3-D flow fields and particle trajectories combined with a 2-D ice accretion calculation along coordinate locations corresponding to streamlines. The types of calculations necessary to predict 3-D ice accretion is demonstrated. Results of calculations using 3-D method for a MS-317 swept wing geometry are projected onto a 2-D plane parallel to the free stream direction and compared to experimental results for the same geometry. It is anticipated that many modifications will be made to this approach, however this effort will lay the groundwork for future modeling efforts. Results indicate that rime ice shapes indicate a difficulty in accurately calculating the ice shape in the runback region.

Potapczuk, M. G.↗

Numerical simulation of ice growth on a MS-317 swept wing geometry

An effort to develop a 3-D ice accretion modeling method was initiated. This first step towards creation of a complete aircraft icing simulation code builds on previously developed methods for calculating 3-D flow fields and particle trajectories combined with a 2-D ice accretion calculation along coordinate locations corresponding to streamlines. The types of calculations necessary to predict three-dimensional ice accretion is demonstrated. Results of calculations using 3-D method for a MS-317 swept wing geometry are projected onto a 2-D plane parallel to the free stream direction and compared to experimental results for the same geometry. It is anticipated that many modifications will be made to this approach, however, this effort will lay the groundwork for future modeling efforts. Results indicate that rime ice shapes indicate a difficulty in accurately calculating the ice shape in the runback region.

Potapczuk, M. G.↗

Swept wing ice accretion modeling

An effort to develop a three-dimensional modeling method was initiated. This first step towards creation of a complete aircraft icing simulation code builds on previously developed methods for calculating three-dimensional flow fields and particle trajectories combined with a two-dimensional ice accretion calculation along coordinate locations corresponding to streamlines. This work is a demonstration of the types of calculations necessary to predict a three-dimensional ice accretion. Results of calculations using the 3-D method for a MS-317 swept wing geometry are projected onto a 2-D plane normal to the wing leading edge and compared to 2-D results for the same geometry. It is anticipated that many modifications will be made to this approach, however, this effort will lay the groundwork for future modeling efforts. Results indicate that the flow field over the surface and the particle trajectories differed for the two calculations. This led to lower collection efficiencies, convective heat transfer coefficients, freezing fractions, and ultimately ice accumulation for the 3-D calculation.

Potapczuk, Mark G.↗

Energy absorption mechanisms during crack propagation in metal matrix composites

The stress distributions around individual fibers in a unidirectional boron/aluminum composite material subjected to axial and transverse loadings are being studied utilizing a generalized plane strain finite element analysis. This micromechanics analysis was modified to permit the analysis of longitudinal sections, and also to incorporate crack initiation and propagation. The analysis fully models the elastoplastic response of the aluminum matrix, as well as temperature dependent material properties and thermal stress effects. The micromechanics analysis modifications are described, and numerical results are given for both longitudinal and transverse models loaded into the inelastic range, to first failure. Included are initially cracked fiber models.

Murphy, D. P.↗

Radiative transfer model for heterogeneous 3-D scenes

A general mathematical framework for simulating processes in heterogeneous 3-D scenes is presented. Specifically, a model was designed and coded for application to radiative transfers in vegetative scenes. The model is unique in that it predicts (1) the directional spectral reflectance factors as a function of the sensor's azimuth and zenith angles and the sensor's position above the canopy, (2) the spectral absorption as a function of location within the scene, and (3) the directional spectral radiance as a function of the sensor's location within the scene. The model was shown to follow known physical principles of radiative transfer. Initial verification of the model as applied to a soybean row crop showed that the simulated directional reflectance data corresponded relatively well in gross trends to the measured data. However, the model can be greatly improved by incorporating more sophisticated and realistic anisotropic scattering algorithms

Kimes, D. S.↗

Photochemical trajectory modelling studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex

Simulations of Antarctic ozone photochemistry performed using a photochemical model integrated along air parcel trajectories are described. This type of model has a major advantage at high latitudes of being able to simulate correctly the complex interaction between photolysis and temperature fields, which, because of the polar night cannot be represented accurately in a zonally averaged framework. Isentropic air parcel trajectories were computed using Meteorological Office global model analyses and forecast fields from positions along the ER-2 flight paths during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment in Austral Spring 1987. A photochemical model is integrated along these trajectories using the aircraft observations to initialize constituent concentrations. The model includes additional reactions of the ClO dimer and also bromine reactions, which are thought to play a significant role in Antarctica. The model also includes heterogeneous reactions which are invoked when the air parcel passes through a polar stratospheric cloud (PSC). The existence of a PSC is determined throughout the course of the model integration from the parcel temperature and the saturated vapour pressure of water over an assumed H2O/HNO3 mixture. The air parcel temperature is used to determine the saturated vapor pressure of HNO3 over the same mixture. Mixing ratios which exceed saturation result in condensation of the excess in the model and hence lead to a reduction of the amount of gas phase NO2 available for chemical reaction.

Austin, J.↗

Diurnal forcing of planetary atmospheres

The utility of the Mars Planetary Boundary Layer Model (MPBL) for calculations in support of the Mars 94 balloon mission was substantially enhanced by the introduction of a balloon equation of motion into the model. Both vertical and horizontal excursions of the balloon are calculated along with its volume, temperature, and pressure. The simulations reproduce the expected 5-min vertical oscillations of a constant density balloon at altitude on Mars. The results of these calculations are presented for the nominal target location of the balloon. A nonlinear balanced model was developed for the Martian atmosphere. It was used to initialize a primitive equation model for the simulations of the Earth's atmosphere at the time of the El Chichon eruption in 1982. It is also used as an assimilation model to update the temperature and wind fields at frequent intervals.

Houben, Howard C.↗

A Pacific Ocean general circulation model for satellite data assimilation

A tropical Pacific Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) to be used in satellite data assimilation studies is described. The transfer of the OGCM from a CYBER-205 at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to a CRAY-2 at NASA's Ames Research Center is documented. Two 3-year model integrations from identical initial conditions but performed on those two computers are compared. The model simulations are very similar to each other, as expected, but the simulations performed with the higher-precision CRAY-2 is smoother than that with the lower-precision CYBER-205. The CYBER-205 and CRAY-2 use 32 and 64-bit mantissa arithmetic, respectively. The major features of the oceanic circulation in the tropical Pacific, namely the North Equatorial Current, the North Equatorial Countercurrent, the South Equatorial Current, and the Equatorial Undercurrent, are realistically produced and their seasonal cycles are described. The OGCM provides a powerful tool for study of tropical oceans and for the assimilation of satellite altimetry data.

Chao, Y.↗

Voids and constraints on nonlinear clustering of galaxies

Void statistics of the galaxy distribution in the Center for Astrophysics Redshift Survey provide strong constraints on galaxy clustering in the nonlinear regime, i.e., on scales R equal to or less than 10/h Mpc. Computation of high-order moments of the galaxy distribution requires a sample that (1) densely traces the large-scale structure and (2) covers sufficient volume to obtain good statistics. The CfA redshift survey densely samples structure on scales equal to or less than 10/h Mpc and has sufficient depth and angular coverage to approach a fair sample on these scales. In the nonlinear regime, the void probability function (VPF) for CfA samples exhibits apparent agreement with hierarchical scaling (such scaling implies that the N-point correlation functions for N greater than 2 depend only on pairwise products of the two-point function xi(r)) However, simulations of cosmological models show that this scaling in redshift space does not necessarily imply such scaling in real space, even in the nonlinear regime; peculiar velocities cause distortions which can yield erroneous agreement with hierarchical scaling. The underdensity probability measures the frequency of 'voids' with density rho less than 0.2 -/rho. This statistic reveals a paucity of very bright galaxies (L greater than L asterisk) in the 'voids.' Underdensities are equal to or greater than 2 sigma more frequent in bright galaxy samples than in samples that include fainter galaxies. Comparison of void statistics of CfA samples with simulations of a range of cosmological models favors models with Gaussian primordial fluctuations and Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-like initial power spectra. Biased models tend to produce voids that are too empty. We also compare these data with three specific models of the Cold Dark Matter cosmogony: an unbiased, open universe CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.5) provides a good match to the VPF of the CfA samples. Biasing of the galaxy distribution in the 'standard' CDM model (omega = 1, b = 1.5; see below for definitions) and nonzero cosmological constant CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.6 lambda(sub 0) = 0.6, b = 1.3) produce voids that are too empty. All three simulations match the observed VPF and underdensity probability for samples of very bright (M less than M asterisk = -19.2) galaxies, but produce voids that are too empty when compared with samples that include fainter galaxies.

Vogeley, Michael S.↗

The Impact of TRMM Data on Numerical Forecast of Mesoscale Systems

The impact of surface rainfall data derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI) on the numerical forecast of mesoscale systems is evaluated. A series of numerical experiments are performed that assimilate TMI rainfall data into the Penn State University/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. Experiments are conducted incorporating TMI rainfall data into the mesoscale model to improve hurricane initialization. It is found that assimilation of rainfall data into the model is beneficial in producing a more realistic eye and rain bands and also helps to improve the intensity forecast for the hurricane. Further 4DVAR experiments are performed on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Detailed results and related issues will be presented during the conference.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗

Design, Analysis and Fabrication of Secondary Structural Components for the Habitat Demonstration Unit-Deep Space Habitat

In support of NASA s Habitat Demonstration Unit - Deep Space Habitat Prototype, a number of evolved structural sections were designed, fabricated, analyzed and installed in the 5 meter diameter prototype. The hardware consisted of three principal structural sections, and included the development of novel fastener insert concepts. The articles developed consisted of: 1) 1/8th of the primary flooring section, 2) an inner radius floor beam support which interfaced with, and supported (1), 3) two upper hatch section prototypes, and 4) novel insert designs for mechanical fastener attachments. Advanced manufacturing approaches were utilized in the fabrication of the components. The structural components were developed using current commercial aircraft constructions as a baseline (for both the flooring components and their associated mechanical fastener inserts). The structural sections utilized honeycomb sandwich panels. The core section consisted of 1/8th inch cell size Nomex, at 9 lbs/cu ft, and which was 0.66 inches thick. The facesheets had 3 plys each, with a thickness of 0.010 inches per ply, made from woven E-glass with epoxy reinforcement. Analysis activities consisted of both analytical models, as well as initial closed form calculations. Testing was conducted to help verify analysis model inputs, as well as to facilitate correlation between testing and analysis. Test activities consisted of both 4 point bending tests as well as compressive core crush sequences. This paper presents an overview of this activity, and discusses issues encountered during the various phases of the applied research effort, and its relevance to future space based habitats.

Smith, Russell W.↗

The three-point function in an ensemble of numerical simulations

The three-point function in Fourier space is evaluated for an ensemble of 2D numerical simulations with nine initial power spectra distinguished by spectral index and cutoff. To remove the main dependences on scale and time, results are presented as the reduced amplitude Q in the hierarchical model. To lowest nonvanishing order in perturbation theory, Q is a constant, independent of length scale, of time, and of initial spectrum. The results show that in the nonlinear regime of evolution, normalizing to Q does remove the main variations, but systematic dependences on spectral index and cutoff remain at late times that depend on properties of the initial spectrum. Models with initial power cut off on a scale that has been evolved far into the nonlinear regime are indistinguishable from models with no cutoff.

Fry, J. N.↗

Starting Conditions for Hydrothermal Systems Underneath Martian Craters: Hydrocode Modeling

Mars is the most Earth-like of the Solar System s planets, and the first place to look for any sign of present or past extraterrestrial life. Its surface shows many features indicative of the presence of surface and sub-surface water, while impact cratering and volcanism have provided temporary and local surface heat sources throughout Mars geologic history. Impact craters are widely used ubiquitous indicators for the presence of sub-surface water or ice on Mars. In particular, the presence of significant amounts of ground ice or water would cause impact-induced hydrothermal alteration at Martian impact sites. The realization that hydrothermal systems are possible sites for the origin and early evolution of life on Earth has given rise to the hypothesis that hydrothermal systems may have had the same role on Mars. Rough estimates of the heat generated in impact events have been based on scaling relations, or thermal data based on terrestrial impacts on crystalline basements. Preliminary studies also suggest that melt sheets and target uplift are equally important heat sources for the development of a hydrothermal system, while its lifetime depends on the volume and cooling rate of the heat source, as well as the permeability of the host rocks. We present initial results of two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) simulations of impacts on Mars aimed at constraining the initial conditions for modeling the onset and evolution of a hydrothermal system on the red planet. Simulations of the early stages of impact cratering provide an estimate of the amount of shock melting and the pressure-temperature distribution in the target caused by various impacts on the Martian surface. Modeling of the late stage of crater collapse is necessary to characterize the final thermal state of the target, including crater uplift, and distribution of the heated target material (including the melt pool) and hot ejecta around the crater.

Pierazzo, E.↗

Access to Mars from Earth-Moon Libration Point Orbits:

This investigation is focused specifically on transfers from Earth-Moon L(sub 1)/L(sub 2) libration point orbits to Mars. Initially, the analysis is based in the circular restricted three-body problem to utilize the framework of the invariant manifolds. Various departure scenarios are compared, including arcs that leverage manifolds associated with the Sun-Earth L(sub 2) orbits as well as non-manifold trajectories. For the manifold options, ballistic transfers from Earth-Moon L(sub 2) libration point orbits to Sun-Earth L(sub 1)/L(sub 2) halo orbits are first computed. This autonomous procedure applies to both departure and arrival between the Earth-Moon and Sun-Earth systems. Departure times in the lunar cycle, amplitudes and types of libration point orbits, manifold selection, and the orientation/location of the surface of section all contribute to produce a variety of options. As the destination planet, the ephemeris position for Mars is employed throughout the analysis. The complete transfer is transitioned to the ephemeris model after the initial design phase. Results for multiple departure/arrival scenarios are compared.

Dynamical Systems↗