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At least 991 records · Page 55

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DOE OSTI2015

Quantifying sampling noise and parametric uncertainty in atomistic-to-continuum simulations using surrogate models

We present a methodology to assess the predictive fidelity of multiscale simulations by incorporating uncertainty in the information exchanged between the components of an atomistic-to-continuum simulation. We account for both the uncertainty due to finite sampling in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and the uncertainty in the physical parameters of the model. Using Bayesian inference, we represent the expensive atomistic component by a surrogate model that relates the long-term output of the atomistic simulation to its uncertain inputs. We then present algorithms to solve for the variables exchanged across the atomistic-continuum interface in terms of polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs). We also consider a simple Couette flow where velocities are exchanged between the atomistic and continuum components, while accounting for uncertainty in the atomistic model parameters and the continuum boundary conditions. Results show convergence of the coupling algorithm at a reasonable number of iterations. As a result, the uncertainty in the obtained variables significantly depends on the amount of data sampled from the MD simulations and on the width of the time averaging window used in the MD simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2012

Propagation of data error and parametric sensitivity in computable general equilibrium model.

While computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a well-established tool in economic analyses, it is often difficult to disentangle the effects of policies of interest from that of the assumptions made regarding the underlying calibration data and model parameters. To characterize the behavior of a CGE model of carbon output with respect to two of these assumptions, we perform a large-scale Monte Carlo experiment to examine its sensitivity to base year calibration data and elasticity of substitution parameters in the absence of a policy change. By examining a variety of output variables at different levels of economic and geographic aggregation, we assess how these forms of uncertainty impact the conclusions that can be drawn from the model simulations. We find greater sensitivity to uncertainty in the elasticity of substitution parameters than to uncertainty in the base-year data as the projection period increases. While many model simulations were conducted to generate large output samples, we find that few are required to capture the mean model response of the variables tested. However, characterizing standard errors and empirical probability distribution functions is not possible without a large number of simulations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2019

An adaptive Kriging surrogate method for efficient uncertainty quantification with an application to geological carbon sequestration modeling

We present that in numerical modeling of geological carbon sequestration (GCS), uncertainty quantification (UQ) is usually needed to evaluate the impact of uncertain model parameters on model predictions caused by limited measurements and incomplete knowledge of the parameters. However, UQ for GCS is computationally expensive due to the large ensemble of complex and lengthy model simulations. In this study, we propose an adaptive Kriging method to build a fast-to-evaluate surrogate of the GCS model to alleviate the heavy computational burden. The surrogate model is efficiently generated using a Taylor expansion-based adaptive experimental design algorithm that combines a distance-based exploration criterion and an exploitation criterion to adaptively search for informative training samples. In addition, we analyze the uncertainty brought by substituting the surrogate for the actual simulation model and explore its influence on UQ results. Lastly, our method is demonstrated in a synthetic GCS model and its performance is evaluated in comparison with the conventional Monte Carlo sampling. Results indicate that our method can greatly improve the computational efficiency in UQ and provide an effective and reliable UQ solution with the consideration of surrogate uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and simulation of earthquake soil structure interaction excited by inclined seismic waves

Presented is an application of wave potential formulation (WPF) together with domain reduction method (DRM) to modeling earthquake soil structure interaction (ESSI) behavior in horizontally layered ground under inclined incident seismic waves. Wave potential formulation is used to develop a spatially varying, inclined seismic wave field from incident Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves that propagate through layered ground. Developed seismic wave field is then used to develop effective forces for Domain Reduction Method that are then used for analyzing ESSI response of a soil structure system. Developed methodology, called WPF-DRM, is verified using analytic solution for a free field response of layered ground subjected to inclined incident waves. Developed WPF-DRM methodology is illustrated through analysis of an ESSI response of a deeply embedded structure, a small modular reactor (SMR) subjected to incident S wave polarized in vertical plane (SV) with variation in inclinations and frequencies. Presented example highlights the influences of incident wave inclination and frequency on ESSI response of analyzed SMR.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Battery Calendar Life Estimator Manual Modeling and Simulation

The Battery Life Estimator (BLE) Manual has been prepared to assist developers in their efforts to estimate the calendar life of advanced batteries for automotive applications. Testing requirements and procedures are defined by the various manuals previously published under the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). The purpose of this manual is to describe and standardize a method for estimating calendar life based on statistical models and degradation data acquired from typical USABC battery testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

First Estimation of Model Parameters for Neutrino-Induced Nucleon Knockout Using Simulation-Based Inference

To enable an accurate determination of oscillation parameters, accelerator-based neutrino experiments require detailed simulations of nuclear interaction physics in the GeV regime. While substantial effort from both theory and experiment is currently being invested to improve the fidelity of these simulations, their present deficiencies typically oblige experimental collaborations to resort to empirical tuning of simulation model parameters. As the precision requirements of the field continue to become more stringent, machine learning techniques may provide a powerful means of handling corresponding growth in the complexity of future neutrino interaction model tuning exercises. To study the suitability of simulation-based inference (SBI) for this physics application, in this paper we revisit a tuned configuration of the GENIE neutrino event generator that was originally developed by the MicroBooNE collaboration. Despite closely reproducing the adopted values of four physics parameters when confronted with the tuned cross-section predictions as input, we find that our trained SBI algorithm prefers modestly different values (within MicroBooNE's assigned uncertainties) and achieves slightly better goodness-of-fit when inference is run on the experimental data set originally used by MicroBooNE. We also find that our trained algorithm can create a fair approximation of an alternative neutrino scattering simulation, NuWro, that shares only a subset of its physics model parameters with GENIE.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage

The project Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The South Carolina Research Foundation and partners evaluated the feasibility of CCS in the Jurassic/ Triassic (J / TR) saline formations of the buried Mesozoic South Georgia Rift (SGR) Basin that extends from South Carolina into Georgia. The J / TR sequence, based on preliminary assessment of limited geologic and geophysical data, appears to have both the appropriate areal extent and multiple horizons to permanently and safely store CO2 The presence of several igneous rock layers within the sequence may potentially provide adequate seals to prevent upward CO2 migration into the Coastal Plain aquifer systems. Approximately 81 kilometers of 2-D seismic reflection data were collected by Bay Geophysical, Inc. to explore a portion of the SGR located in southern Georgia. The 81 kilometers were divided into two lines approximately 40.5 kilometers each, with Line 1 intersecting Georgia well GGS 3457. Line 2 intersects Line 1 at the southern portion of Line 1 to maximize the extent of coverage away from GGS-3457 (a deep well drilled in the 1980s for oil and gas exploration). This well had a set of usable logs, including gamma and neutron logs that provided promising results related to CO2 storage. Results showed sandstone with porosity values greater than 10 percent and a thickness of 120 meters. The design of the seismic shot was to extrapolate information away from the well and to better define the extent of the SGR and the necessary reservoir and caprock for a successful CO2 injection. A numerical simulation model of CO2 Injection and migration was developed based on the geology log for the GGS-3457 well. The simulation model was used to investigate the feasibility of injecting 30 million metric tons of CO2 into SGR J / TA sediments and integrity of the diabase layers as seals to prevent CO2 migration.

2-D seismic↗

DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and simulation of multiphase flows

This presentation provides an overview of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) multiphase computational fluid dynamics codes. The highly successful Multiphase Flows with Interphase eXchanges (MFIX) suite has been used to model a wide range of applications including post-combustion carbon capture, bioreactor optimization, and bio-FCC regeneration. MFIX-Exa, a state-of-the-art CFD code, developed under DOE’s Exascale Computing Project, is built on the AMReX software framework (https://amrex-codes.github.io/) and is designed to leverage modern accelerator-based compute architectures. This presentation further reviews the underlying physical models of both MFIX and MFIX-Exa and contrasts their similarities and differences. Examples of past and present CFD simulations will illustrate how scientific computing at NETL is being used not only for scientific exploration but also for design, optimization and scale-up of multiphase flow devices.

Musser, Jordan [NETL]↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Effect of Air Separations on Fast Pyrolysis Products for Forest Residue Feedstocks

This study investigates the intricate relationship between biomass preprocessing and pyrolysis product yields, employing the air classification technique for the treatment of loblolly pine residues with varying moisture content. A comprehensive exploration of the physicochemical properties of air-classified loblolly pine informs a sophisticated pyrolysis simulation model. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of biomass pyrolysis, operating across diverse temporal and spatial scales, a pyrolysis kinetics-based CFD–DEM simulation method is employed to predict product yields. Results showed that the elevated moisture content amplifies particle adhesiveness, necessitating augmented air velocities for effective separation, thereby influencing the efficiency of the separation process. While carbon and hydrogen contents exhibit relative stability across diverse moisture contents and blower frequencies, the oxygen content undergoes noticeable changes. For example, the oxygen contents were measured as 29.2 and 38.6 wt% in the light fraction of 30% moisture content sample at blower frequencies of 10 and 20 Hz, respectively. An intriguing finding emerges from pyrolysis simulation, indicating that a lower blower frequency in air classification moderately enhances bio-oil yield and significantly improves its quality, particularly in terms of water content. For instance, the water content in the bio-oil was about 1.5% and 10% in the heavy and light fractions, respectively from 10% moisture sample under 15 Hz blower frequency. In summary, a detailed understanding and strategic manipulation of critical material attributes in biomass through efficient fractionation techniques are imperative for advancing fast pyrolysis as a sustainable avenue for renewable energy and chemical production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian analysis of (3 +1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics with the RHIC beam energy scan data

This work presents a Bayesian inference study for relativistic heavy-ion collisions in the beam energy scan program at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The theoretical model simulates event-by-event (3+1)-dimensional [(3+1)⁢D] collision dynamics using hydrodynamics and hadronic transport theory. We analyze the model's 20-dimensional posterior distributions obtained using three model emulators with different accuracy and demonstrate the essential role of training an accurate model emulator in the Bayesian analysis. Our analysis provides robust constraints on the quark-gluon plasma's transport properties and various aspects of (3+1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics. By running full model simulations with 100 parameter sets sampled from the posterior distribution, we make predictions for p T -differential observables and estimate their systematic theory uncertainty. Here, a sensitivity analysis is performed to elucidate how individual experimental observables respond to different model parameters, providing useful physics insights into the phenomenological model for heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep operator network surrogate for phase-field modeling of metal grain growth during solidification

A deep operator network (DeepONet) has been constructed that generates accurate representations of phase-field model simulations for evolving two dimensional metal grain morphology growing from melt. These representations serve as lower resolution, computationally efficient stand-ins for quick parameter space exploration of solutions to the the Allen-Cahn equations that dictate the phase-field model simulations. The experimental target for the phase-field model is a uranium casting system cooling a 434 g uranium charge from a maximum temperature of 1400° C at an average rate of 30° C / min , traversing the crystallographic phases of the pure metal. Experimental parameters inform the phase-field model, whose higher resolution computational model solutions are used to train the DeepONet in a given parameter space with the aim of developing a faster, more efficient method for predicting the solidifying metal's microstructure at different potential experimental values. The final DeepONet generates high accuracy, lower resolution predictions with cumulative relative approximation error over all timesteps of less than 0.5%, while ensuring solutions remain within physically feasible ranges. Further, these relative error values are comparable with other state-of-the-art DeepONet models for microstructure evolution, while significantly reducing the amount of training data required. Training a convolutional neural network simultaneously with the DeepONet, enforcing realistic values at the complex metal grain boundaries, and mathematically encoding boundary conditions into the structure of the DeepONet improved prediction accuracy and computational efficiency over a standard DeepONet model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Integrated System Simulation (DSO+T Study: Volume 2)

This report summarizes an integrated co-simulation model used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to represent an electrical generation, delivery, and end-load systems for the purposes of assessing the viability and value proposition of transactive energy coordination of flexible assets versus a business-as-usual case. The integrated co-simulation model includes the bulk generation and transmission system, including the day-ahead and real-time scheduling and dispatch of thermal generators. Forty distribution system operators were modelled in detail, including tens of thousands of residential and commercial buildings and their flexible end-loads. These included HVAC systems, residential water heaters, electric vehicles, and stationary, behind-the-meter, batteries. Both wholesale market and end-load results for the business-as-usual case are presented and compared to actual ERCOT system data to assess the accuracy and representativeness of the resulting model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Architectural Improvements and New Processing Tools for the Open XAL Online Model

The online model is the component of Open XAL providing accelerator modeling, simulation, and dynamic synchronization to live hardware. Significant architectural changes and feature additions have been recently made in two separate areas: 1) the managing and processing of simulation data, and 2) the modeling of RF cavities. Simulation data and data processing have been completely decoupled. A single class manages all simulation data while standard tools were developed for processing the simulation results. RF accelerating cavities are now modeled as composite structures where parameter and dynamics computations are distributed. The beam and hardware models both maintain their relative phase information, which allows for dynamic phase slip and elapsed time computation.

Accelerator Control↗

DOE OSTI2021

Near-field models and simulations of pellet ablation in tokamaks

Here, detailed numerical studies of the ablation of a single neon pellet in the plasma disruption mitigation parameter space have been performed. Simulations were carried out using FronTier, a hydrodynamic/low magnetic Reynolds number MHD code with explicit tracking of material interfaces. FronTier's physics models resolve the pellet surface ablation and the formation of a dense, cold cloud of ablated material, the deposition of energy from hot plasma electrons, the expansion of the ablation cloud along magnetic field lines, and the radiation losses. A local thermodynamic equilibrium model based on Saha equations has been used to resolve atomic processes in the cloud and Redlich–Kwong corrections to the ideal gas equation of state for cold and dense gases, which have been used near the pellet surface. The FronTier pellet code is a next generation of the code described. It has been validated against the semi-analytic improved neutral gas shielding model in the 1D spherically symmetric approximation. Main results include quantification of the influence of atomic processes and Redlich–Kwong corrections on the pellet ablation in spherically symmetric approximation and verification of analytic scaling laws in a broad range of pellet and plasma parameters. Using axially symmetric MHD simulations, the properties of ablation channels and the reduction of pellet ablation rates in magnetic fields of increasing strength have been studied. While the main emphasis has been given to neon pellets for the plasma disruption mitigation, selected results on deuterium fueling pellets have also been presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Investigating ice nucleation in cirrus clouds with an aerosol-enabled Multiscale Modeling Framework

In this study, an aerosol-dependent ice nucleation scheme [Liu and Penner, 2005] has been implemented in an aerosol-enabled multi-scale modeling framework (PNNL MMF) to study ice formation in upper troposphere cirrus clouds through both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. The MMF model represents cloud scale processes by embedding a cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each vertical column of a GCM grid. By explicitly linking ice nucleation to aerosol number concentration, CRM-scale temperature, relative humidity and vertical velocity, the new MMF model simulates the persistent high ice supersaturation and low ice number concentration (10 to 100/L) at cirrus temperatures. The low ice number is attributed to the dominance of heterogeneous nucleation in ice formation. The new model simulates the observed shift of the ice supersaturation PDF towards higher values at low temperatures following homogeneous nucleation threshold. The MMF models predict a higher frequency of midlatitude supersaturation in the Southern hemisphere and winter hemisphere, which is consistent with previous satellite and in-situ observations. It is shown that compared to a conventional GCM, the MMF is a more powerful model to emulate parameters that evolve over short time scales such as supersaturation. Sensitivity tests suggest that the simulated global distribution of ice clouds is sensitive to the ice nucleation schemes and the distribution of sulfate and dust aerosols. Simulations are also performed to test empirical parameters related to auto-conversion of ice crystals to snow. Results show that with a value of 250 μm for the critical diameter, Dcs, that distinguishes ice crystals from snow, the model can produce good agreement to the satellite retrieved products in terms of cloud ice water path and ice water content, while the total ice water is not sensitive to the specification of Dcs value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation-Based Model for Facility-Scale Eagle Presence Mapping

This talk presents the recent progress in building a predictive movement model for predicting conflict between soaring raptors and wind turbines. In particular, it details the recently developed numerical tool called Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator for simulating updraft-subsidized paths for soaring raptors through variety of wind conditions and the associated directional intent.

agent-based model↗

DOE OSTI2022

The root-zone soil moisture spectrum in a mediterranean ecosystem

Storage of water within soil pores of the root zone introduce memory effects in the dynamics of soil moisture that are considerably longer than the integral timescale of many atmospheric processes. Thus, hydro-climatic states can be “sustained” through land-surface heat and water vapor fluxes primarily because they can “feed off” on this long-term soil moisture memory. Root-zone soil moisture memory is only but one feature characterizing the spectrum of soil moisture dynamics, which is analyzed here using a combination of long-term measurements and models. In particular, the spectrum of root-zone soil moisture content in a Mediterranean ecosystem is examined using 14-years of half-hourly measurements. A distinguishing hydro-climatic feature in such ecosystems is that sources (mainly rainfall) and sinks (mainly evapotranspiration) of soil moisture are roughly out of phase with each other. For over 4 decades of time scales and 7 decades of energy, the canonical shape of the measured soil moisture spectrum is shown to be approximately Lorentzian determined by the soil moisture variance and its memory but with two exceptions: the occurrences of a peak at diurnal-to-daily time scales and a weaker peak at near annual time scales. Model calculations and spectral analysis demonstrate that diurnal and seasonal variations in hydroclimate forcing responsible for variability in evapotranspiration had minor impact on the normalized shape of the soil moisture spectrum. However, their impact was captured by adjustments in the temporal variance. These findings indicate that precipitation and not evapotranspiration variability dominates the multi-scaling properties of soil moisture variability consistent with prior climate model simulations. Furthermore, the soil moisture memory inferred by the annual peak of soil moisture (340 d) is consistent with climate model simulations, while the memory evaluated from the loss function of a linearized mass balance approach leads to a smaller value (50 d), highlighting the effect of weak non-stationarity on soil moisture variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗