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At least 991 records · Page 55

Purely coronal flare-like variations

Quasiperiodic X-ray, UV, microwave, and metric-wave variations after a solar flare on November 6, 1980 are reported and analyzed, based on observational data from SMM (HXRBS, UVSP, HXIS), GOES-2, the 100-m radiotelescope at Bonn, and the Nancay radioheliograph. The maxima of the 13 brightenings observed are listed and characterized; a comparison is made with a 'normal' flare at 17:26 UT on the same day. The HXIS and UVSP data are discussed in terms of the physical properties, X-ray flux, O V flux, and H-alpha flux. The variations are found to be mainly thermal and purely coronal, with no chromospheric (H-alpha) participation (in contrast to the 17:26 flare). Since strong X-ray emissions were observed which should have involved the chromosphere through magnetic-field-line heat conduction, it is proposed that the variations wre produced ina coronal plasmoid magnetically separate from the chromosphere. A mechanism for the evolution of such a plasmoid from the upper loops of a giant X-ray arch is discussed. An iterative HXIS-image-deconvolution process is presented in an appendix.

Svestka, Z.↗

Data Assimilation and Transport Modeling in Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres

Data assimilation is a blanket term used to describe a number of techniques for retrieving important physical parameters from observational data, subject to constraints imposed by prior knowledge (such as, in the case of meteorology, the primitive equations that govern atmospheric motion). Since these newly developed methods make efficient use of computational resources, they are of great importance in the interpretation of the voluminous datasets that are now produced by satellite missions. As proposed, these techniques have been applied to the study of the Martian and terrestrial atmospheres based on available satellite observations. In addition, a sophisticated hydrodynamic model (non-hydrostatic, and therefore applicable to the study of the interiors of the giant planets) has also been developed and successfully applied to the study of tidally induced motions in Jupiter.

Houben, Howard C.↗

Cloud-resolving model intercomparison of an MC3E squall line case: Part I-Convective updrafts: CRM Intercomparison of a Squall Line

A constrained model intercomparison study of a mid-latitude mesoscale squall line is performed using the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing with eight cloud microphysics schemes, to understand specific processes that lead to the large spread of simulated cloud and precipitation at cloud-resolving scales, with a focus of this paper on convective cores. Various observational data are employed to evaluate the baseline simulations. All simulations tend to produce a wider convective area than observed, but a much narrower stratiform area, with most bulk schemes overpredicting radar reflectivity. The magnitudes of the virtual potential temperature drop, pressure rise, and the peak wind speed associated with the passage of the gust front are significantly smaller compared with the observations, suggesting simulated cool pools are weaker. Simulations also overestimate the vertical velocity and Ze in convective cores as compared with observational retrievals. The modeled updraft velocity and precipitation have a significant spread across the eight schemes even in this strongly dynamically-driven system. The spread of updraft velocity is attributed to the combined effects of the low-level perturbation pressure gradient determined by cold pool intensity and buoyancy that is not necessarily well correlated to differences in latent heating among the simulations. Variability of updraft velocity between schemes is also related to differences in ice-related parameterizations, whereas precipitation variability increases in no-ice simulations because of scheme differences in collision-coalescence parameterizations.

Fan, Jiwen↗

Estimating Submicron Aerosol Mixing State at the Global Scale With Machine Learning and Earth System Modeling

Abstract This study integrates machine learning and particle‐resolved aerosol simulations to develop emulators that predict submicron aerosol mixing state indices from the Earth system model (ESM) simulations. The emulators predict aerosol mixing state using only quantities that are predicted by the ESM, including bulk aerosol species concentrations, which do not by themselves carry mixing state information. We used PartMC‐MOSAIC as the particle‐resolved model and NCAR's CESM as the ESM. We trained emulators for three different mixing state indices for submicron aerosol in terms of chemical species abundance ( χ a ), the mixing of optically absorbing and nonabsorbing species ( χ o ), and the mixing of hygroscopic and nonhygroscopic species ( χ h ). Our global mixing state maps show considerable spatial and seasonal variability unique to each mixing state index. Seasonal averages varied spatially between 13% and 94% for χ a , between 38% and 94% for χ o , and between 20% and 87% for χ h with global annual averages of 67%, 68%, and 56%, respectively. High values in one index can be consistent with low values in another index depending on the grouping of species and their relative abundance, meaning that each mixing state index captures different aspects of the population mixing state. Although a direct validation with observational data has not been possible yet, our results are consistent with mixing state index values derived from ambient observations. This work is a prototypical example of using machine learning emulators to add information to ESM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thresholded power law size distributions of instabilities in astrophysics

Power-law-like size distributions are ubiquitous in astrophysical instabilities. There are at least four natural effects that cause deviations from ideal power law size distributions, which we model here in a generalized way: (1) a physical threshold of an instability; (2) incomplete sampling of the smallest events below a threshold x{sub 0}; (3) contamination by an event-unrelated background x{sub b}; and (4) truncation effects at the largest events due to a finite system size. These effects can be modeled in the simplest terms with a “thresholded power law” distribution function (also called generalized Pareto [type II] or Lomax distribution), N(x)dx∝(x+x{sub 0}){sup −a}dx, where x{sub 0} > 0 is positive for a threshold effect, while x{sub 0} < 0 is negative for background contamination. We analytically derive the functional shape of this thresholded power law distribution function from an exponential growth evolution model, which produces avalanches only when a disturbance exceeds a critical threshold x{sub 0}. We apply the thresholded power law distribution function to terrestrial, solar (HXRBS, BATSE, RHESSI), and stellar flare (Kepler) data sets. We find that the thresholded power law model provides an adequate fit to most of the observed data. Major advantages of this model are the automated choice of the power law fitting range, diagnostics of background contamination, physical instability thresholds, instrumental detection thresholds, and finite system size limits. When testing self-organized criticality models that predict ideal power laws, we suggest including these natural truncation effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Is Poor Performance a Result of Methodology or Data Quality?

The PALS Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) illustrated the value of prescribing a priori performance targets in model intercomparisons. It showed that the performance of turbulent energy flux predictions from different land surface models, at a broad range of flux tower sites using common evaluation metrics, was on average worse than relatively simple empirical models. For sensible heat fluxes, all land surface models were outperformed by a linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. For latent heat flux, all land surface models were outperformed by a regression against downward shortwave, surface air temperature and relative humidity. These results are explored here in greater detail and possible causes are investigated. We examine whether particular metrics or sites unduly influence the collated results, whether results change according to time-scale aggregation and whether a lack of energy conservation in flux tower data gives the empirical models an unfair advantage in the intercomparison. We demonstrate that energy conservation in the observational data is not responsible for these results. We also show that the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes in LSMs, rather than the calculation of available energy, is the cause of the original findings. In conclusion, we present evidence suggesting that the nature of this partitioning problem is likely shared among all contributing LSMs. While we do not find a single candidate explanation for why land surface models perform poorly relative to empirical benchmarks in PLUMBER, we do exclude multiple possible explanations and provide guidance on where future research should focus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations for Studying Solar Flare Trigger Mechanism

In order to understand the flare trigger mechanism, we conduct three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations using a coronal magnetic field model derived from data observed by the Hinode satellite. Several types of magnetic bipoles are imposed into the photospheric boundary of the Nonlinear Force-free Field model of Active Region (AR) NOAA 10930 on 2006 December 13, to investigate what kind of magnetic disturbance may trigger the flare. As a result, we confirm that certain small bipole fields, which emerge into the highly sheared global magnetic field of an AR, can effectively trigger a flare. These bipole fields can be classified into two groups based on their orientation relative to the polarity inversion line: the so-called opposite polarity, and reversed shear structures, as suggested by Kusano et al. We also investigate the structure of the footpoints of reconnected field lines. By comparing the distribution of reconstructed field lines and observed flare ribbons, the trigger structure of the flare can be inferred. Our simulation suggests that the data-constrained simulation, taking into account both the large-scale magnetic structure and small-scale magnetic disturbance (such as emerging fluxes), is a good way to discover a flare-producing AR, which can be applied to space weather prediction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Uncertainties in derived temperature-height soundings A summary

It is shown that high-resolution low-uncertainty temperature-height profiles cannot be deduced from pressure-height data alone because the relative uncertainty in pressure data cannot be expected to be smaller than 1% or 2% in present-day practical instrumentation. The basic equations relating temperature to pressure-height or density-height data are subjected to error analysis to determine the uncertainty introduced into computed temperature-height values by observed data. The results show that the use of density data is much more preferable than the use of pressure data if atmospheric temperature is to be determined as a function of height with a fine height resolution and a small uncertainty from the height profiles of pressure or density and if pressures and densities can be measured with comparable accuracies.

Minzner, R. A.↗

Observations of solar oscillations with periods of 160 minutes

Severny et al. (1976) have reported oscillations of the sun with a period near 160 min. A description is presented of observations made at the Stanford Solar Observatory during the time from 1975 to the present which seem to support the reports by Severny et al. At Stanford the relative velocity between a central circular area of radius 0.5 solar radius on the solar disk and most of the remaining area of the solar disk is measured. A superposed epoch analysis of the observations using a period of 160 min is discussed. An apparent agreement in phase between the obtained observational data and those reported by Severny et al. tends to support the interpretation that solar oscillations are being observed.

Scherrer, P. H.↗

Spectrophotometry of Michigan-Tololo quasars

The Michigan-Tololo sample of quasars is discussed using observational data for 48% of this sample. Emission-line quasar characteristics are confirmed for 80% of the objects observed, including at least four new quasars with spectral features indicative of 'supernova-like' outflow. Approximately 73% of the redshifts predicted from the discovery plates are found to be accurate, with a mean error in z of 0.03; a large range of z (from about 0.1 to 3.16) is represented in the sample. The interpretation of the observed redshift distribution for quasars is strongly dependent upon the significance ascribed to wavelength-dependent selection effects. It appears that the behavior of the comoving quasar density above z = 2.0 may be represented by a constant or an exponential increase.

Lewis, D. W.↗

Ionization equilibrium in isolated H II regions

Theoretical ionization equilibrium models are combined with Copernicus ultraviolet observations to study a particular H II region absorption-line component in the spectra of Lambda Sco and Upsilon Sco. The Lambda Sco observations imply that the region is characterized by a hydrogen density of approximately 0.2/cu cm and an extent along the line of sight of approximately 16 pc. Three choices for the relative placement of Lambda Sco and Upsilon Sco are considered. Conclusions are that Lambda Sco is the primary source of ionization and that there is a separation of approximately 5 pc between the H II region and Lambda Sco. Observational data support an enhanced dielectronic recombination rate for S III. Comparison of the Upsilon Sco and Lambda Sco observations suggests that spatial variations of density may be present.

Eder, D. C.↗

Spectral energetics of the observed and simulated Northern Hemisphere general circulation during blocking episodes

The spectral energetics of the Northern Hemisphere circulation during blocking episodes of the FGGE year is investigated with gridded analyses of observational data and parallel simulation experiments. The purpose of this study is to describe the energetics distinctions of the observed and simulated blockings in the context of the general circulation and to assess the capability of the model to simulate blockings. In the observed circulation a pronounced winter blocking is developed and maintained by the nonlinear wave-wave interaction L(1) from the kinetic energy source for n = 3-10, where L(n) is the transfer of eddy kinetic energy from all other wavenumbers to wavenumber n. In the case of the double blocking in the winter, both L(1) and L(2) support the blocking. The kinetic energy source of n = 10 for upscale input at n = 1 and 2 is supported by the baroclinic conversion at n = 3-10. The simulated winter circulation shows strong baroclinic conversion at all wavenumbers, including ultralong waves. However, the simulation fails to produce pronounced blocking for the absence of L(1), and the converted energy cascades down to shorter waves. The wave-mean transfer of kinetic energy from the large-scale disturbances to the zonal mean component further prevents the accumulation of the kinetic energy at the ultralong waves. In contrast to the winter situation, the summer blocking seems to be directly supported by both L(4) and baroclinic conversion at other planetary-scale waves. Consequently, the summer circulation is better simulated than the winter circulation.

Kung, Ernest C.↗

Antiprotons in cosmic rays and their implications

A brief description of the experiments carried out so far to measure the energy spectrum of antiprotons is made and the reason for the excitement in this field of research is elucidated. The observed spectrum appears to be different form the other components of cosmic rays. Various physical processes by which antiprotons could be created are summarized. The equilibrium spectrum of antiprotons in the Galaxy, arising from each of these processes, is derived for different propagation models. It is shown that no single model can predict correctly the observed data over the entire energy region. However, the recent data at low energies suggest that the conventional models with large amount of matter traversal by cosmic rays, either in the source region or during propagation, can reproduce the data closely. The implications of these propagation models for other components are discussed and the need for more observations is emphasized.

Stephens, S. A.↗

X-ray emission from normal stars

The paper addresses the potential for future X-ray missions to determine the fundamental cause of stellar X-ray emissions based on available results and existing analyses. The determinants of stellar X-ray emission are listed, and the relation of stellar X-ray emissions to the 'universal' activity-rotation connection is discussed. The specific rotation-activity connection for evolved stars is mentioned, and the 'decay' of stellar activity at the low-mass end of the main sequence is related to observational data. The data from Einstein and EXOSAT missions that correspond to these issues are found to be sparse, and more observational work is found to be necessary. Also, it is concluded that some issues need to be addressed, such as the X-ray dividing line in evolved stars and the absence of X-ray emission from dA stars. The related observational requirements and instrumental capabilities are given for each significant research focus.

Rosner, Robert↗

A Contrast in Use of Metrics in Earth Science Data Systems

In recent years there has been a surge in the number of systems for processing, archiving and distributing remotely sensed data. Such systems, working independently as well as in collaboration, have been contributing greatly to the advances in the scientific understanding of the Earth system, as well as utilization of the data for nationally and internationally important applications. Among such systems, we consider those that are developed by or under the sponsorship of NASA to fulfill one of its strategic objectives: "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA's Earth science data systems are of varying size and complexity depending on the requirements they are intended to meet. Some data systems are regarded as NASA's "Core Capabilities" that provide the basic infrastructure for processing, archiving and distributing a set of data products to a large and diverse user community in a robust and reliable manner. Other data systems constitute "Community Capabilities". These provide specialized and innovative services to data users and/or research products offering new scientific insight. Such data systems are generally supported by NASA through peer reviewed competition. Examples of Core Capabilities are 1. Earth Observing Data and Information System (EOSDIS) with its Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPSs), and the EOS Clearing House (ECHO); 2. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Science Data and Information System (TSDIS); 3. Ocean Data Processing System (ODPS); and 4. CloudSat Data Processing Center. Examples of Community Capabilities are projects under the Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network (REASON), and Advancing Collaborative Connections for Earth System Science (ACCESS) Programs. In managing these data system capabilities, it is necessary to have well-established goals and to measure progress relative to them. Progress is measured through "metrics", which can be a combination of quantitative as well as qualitative assessments. The specific metrics of interest depend on the user of the metrics as well as the type of data system. The users of metrics can be data system managers, program managers, funding agency or the public. Data system managers need metrics for assessing and improving the performance of the system and for future planning. Program managers need metrics to assess progress and the value of the data systems sponsored by them. Also, there is a difference in the metrics needed for core capabilities that tend to be more complex, larger and longer-term compared to community capabilities and the community capabilities that tend to be simpler, smaller and shorter-term. Even among community capabilities there are differences; hence the same set of metrics does not apply to all. Some provide data products to users, some provide services that enable better utilization of data or interoperability among other systems, and some are a part of a larger project where provision of data or services is only a minor activity. There is also a contrast between metrics used for internal and external purposes. Examples of internal purposes are: ensuring that the system meets its requirements, and planning for evolution and growth. Examples of external purposes are: providing to sponsors indicators of success of the systems, demonstrating the contributions of the system to overall program success, etc. This paper will consider EOSDIS, REASON and ACCESS programs to show the various types of metrics needed and how they need to be tailored to the types of data systems while maintaining the overall management goals of measuring progress and contributions made by the data systems.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗

Maintaining a Local Data Integration System in Support of Weather Forecast Operations

Since 2000, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX have used a local data integration system (LDIS) as part of their forecast and warning operations. The original LDIS was developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU; Bauman et ai, 2004) in 1998 (Manobianco and Case 1998) and has undergone subsequent improvements. Each has benefited from three-dimensional (3-D) analyses that are delivered to forecasters every 15 minutes across the peninsula of Florida. The intent is to generate products that enhance short-range weather forecasts issued in support of NWS MLB and SMG operational requirements within East Central Florida. The current LDIS uses the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) package as its core, which integrates a wide variety of national, regional, and local observational data sets. It assimilates all available real-time data within its domain and is run at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than current national- or regional-scale analysis packages. As such, it provides local forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features

Watson, Leela R.↗

NASA Wrangler: Automated Cloud-Based Data Assembly in the RECOVER Wildfire Decision Support System

NASA Wrangler is a loosely-coupled, event driven, highly parallel data aggregation service designed to take advantageof the elastic resource capabilities of cloud computing. Wrangler automatically collects Earth observational data, climate model outputs, derived remote sensing data products, and historic biophysical data for pre-, active-, and post-wildfire decision making. It is a core service of the RECOVER decision support system, which is providing rapid-response GIS analytic capabilities to state and local government agencies. Wrangler reduces to minutes the time needed to assemble and deliver crucial wildfire-related data.

decision support↗

Employing NASA Earth Observations and Socioeconomic Data to Conduct Site Suitability Analyses on Residential Tree Planting Initiatives in Phoenix, Arizona

Phoenix, Arizona is the hottest large city in the United States with an average summer daytime temperature of 106°F. Temperatures in Phoenix continue to climb due to increasing global greenhouse gas concentrations and regional urbanization. The impacts of high temperatures, including heat-related illnesses and deaths, are disproportionately concentrated in low-income neighborhoods often characterized by little tree canopy, lack of green space, and insufficient access to shade. The City of Phoenix’s Office of Heat Response and Mitigation and Arizona State University’s Urban Climate Research Center, partnered with NASA DEVELOP to identify residential neighborhoods and parcels within qualified census tracts (QCTs) to be prioritized for tree planting initiatives using funding from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). This project conducted analyses using NASA Earth observations, socioeconomic data from the 2019 American Community Survey, and local tree canopy and mobility data. For Earth observations, daytime land surface temperature, vegetation, and land cover were obtained from the Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and Operational Land Imager (OLI). The project team incorporated these data into a heat vulnerability index (HVI) with an emphasis on tree canopy and social vulnerability to rank block groups within QCTs and focused on the resulting top 25 block group HVI scores. These top 25 most vulnerable block groups were then processed through a parcel analysis to determine the feasibility of residential tree planting based on building footprints on each parcel. Within the top 25 block groups, 2,411 parcels were analyzed, and 3,133 existing trees were identified averaging 1.3 trees per parcel with 90% of parcels having 3 trees or less. Homes with 2 trees or fewer were considered high priority for future planting efforts. Based on the City’s goals for increased tree canopy the project team determined that <10,000 additional trees would need to be planted within the most vulnerable 25 block groups. The project findings have helped initiate community engagement efforts and have contributed to the approval of tree planting funds in Phoenix.

Ryan Hammock↗