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Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases [1]. Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission [2]. Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an advanced design methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development effort. In order to fit a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of ground rules and assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated "what if" questions.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗

Strategic Energy Management Program Persistence and Cost Effectiveness An Analysis of the SEM Program Landscape

This study examines the relationship between strategic energy management (SEM) programs and their persistence and cost effectiveness, with analysis based on interview data from 24 SEM program administrators, SEM program evaluations, and other reports. The 80 interview questions focused on the topics of program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. The generosity of interview respondents provided a wealth of data, resulting in a report of sufficient length to warrant inclusion of this brief guide of the report structure. The major sections are listed below with brief descriptions. Individual sections of this report are mainly stand-alone and do not require reading of other sections. As a result, there is some duplication between sections, but with differing levels of detail. Executive Summary: Presents three key conclusions of this work with a short description of potential actions to advance the understanding of each key finding. Brief Observations: Lists a large number of bulleted observations resulting from this research, arranged by the five major topic areas included in the interviews. Analysis details are provided in the Analysis of Interview Results section. Foundations for this Research: Provides an overview of SEM, SEM frameworks, SEM programs, the topics of persistence and cost effectiveness, and the focus of this research. Methodology: Details the approach and strategy of this research, providing background information relevant to the formulation of interview questions and the identification of which SEM programs to interview. Observations from Compiled Evaluations and Other Reports: Reports observations from the collection and analysis of program evaluations, annual reports, utility planning documents, and SEM-related white papers. This section, presented in bullet form, highlights challenges in data collection and ultimately a comparison of program practices as they pertain to persistence and cost effectiveness. Analysis of Interview Results: Presents detailed analysis of responses from SEM program administrators, arranged by the five major categories examined: program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. Interview questions are generally grouped together into subsections when it makes sense to examine them together. SEM Programs Challenge Traditional Cost-Effectiveness Metrics: Details an analysis based on five key factors showing that applying traditional cost-effectiveness metrics to SEM programs is not straightforward. This invites the opportunity to consider whether traditional cost-effectiveness metrics are applicable to SEM programs, either individually or at large. Resolution of Research Hypotheses: Tabulates a set of hypotheses that were developed to address the fundamental nature of the research at hand. Analysis of responses to multiple questions informs an understanding of each hypothesis and can be used to better understand the SEM program environment at large.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

TU-AB-BRB-02: Stochastic Programming Methods for Handling Uncertainty and Motion in IMRT Planning

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. The treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Lightweight Long Life Heat Exchanger

A shuttle orbiter flight configuration aluminum heat exchanger was designed, fabricated, and tested. The heat exchanger utilized aluminum clad titanium composite parting sheets for protection against parting sheet pin hole corrosion. The heat exchanger, which is fully interchangeable with the shuttle condensing heat exchanger, includes slurpers (a means for removing condensed water from the downstream face of the heat exchanger), and both the core air passes and slurpers were hydrophilic coated to enhance wettability. The test program included performance tests which demonstrated the adequacy of the design and confirmed the predicted weight savings.

Moore, E. K.↗

Experimental Investigation of Turbine Vane Heat Transfer for Alternative Fuels

The focus of this program was to experimentally investigate advanced gas turbine cooling schemes and the effects of and factors that contribute to surface deposition from particulate matter found in coal syngas exhaust flows on turbine airfoil heat transfer and film cooling, as well as to characterize surface roughness and determine the effects of surface deposition on turbine components. The program was a comprehensive, multi-disciplinary collaborative effort between aero-thermal and materials faculty researchers and the Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The primary technical objectives of the program were to evaluate the effects of combustion of syngas fuels on heat transfer to turbine vanes and blades in land-based power generation gas turbine engines. The primary questions to be answered by this investigation were; What are the factors that contribute to particulate deposition on film cooled gas turbine components? An experimental program was performed in a high-temperature and pressure combustion rig at the DOE NETL; What is the effect of coal syngas combustion and surface deposition on turbine airfoil film cooling? Deposition of particulate matter from the combustion gases can block film cooling holes, decreasing the flow of the film coolant and the film cooling effectiveness; How does surface deposition from coal syngas combustion affect turbine surface roughness? Increased surface roughness can increase aerodynamic losses and result in decreased turbine hot section efficiency, increasing engine fuel consumption to maintain desired power output. Convective heat transfer is also greatly affected by the surface roughness of the airfoil surface; Is there any significant effect of surface deposition or erosion on integrity of turbine airfoil thermal barrier coatings (TBC) and do surface deposits react with the TBC in any way to decrease its thermal insulating capability? Spallation and erosion of TBC is a persistent problem in modern turbine engines; and What advancements in film cooling hole geometry and design can increase effectiveness of film cooling in turbines burning high-hydrogen coal syngas due to the higher heat loads and mass flow rates of the core flow? Experimental and numerical investigations of advanced cooling geometries that can improve resistance to surface deposition were performed. The answers to these questions were investigated through experimental measurements of turbine blade surface temperature and coolant coverage (via infrared camera images and thermocouples) and time-varying surface roughness in the NETL high-pressure combustion rig with accelerated, simulated surface deposition and advanced cooling hole concepts, coupled with detailed materials analysis and characterization using conventional methods of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), 3-D Surface Topography (using a 3-D stylus profilometer). Detailed surface temperatures and cooling effectiveness could not be measured due to issues with the NETL infrared camera system. In collaboration with faculty startup funding from the principal investigator, experimental and numerical investigations were performed of an advanced film cooling hole geometry, the anti-vortex hole (AVH), focusing on improving cooling effectiveness and decreasing the counter-rotating vortex of conventional cooling holes which can entrain mainstream particulate matter to the surface. The potential benefit of this program is in gaining a fundamental understanding of how the use of alternative fuels will effect the operation of modern gas turbine engines, providing valuable data for more effective cooling designs for future turbine systems utilizing alternative fuels.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Cyber-Informed Engineering

A continuing challenge for engineers who utilize digital systems is to understand the impact of cyber-attacks across the entire product and program lifecycle. This is a challenge due to the evolving nature of cyber threats that may impact the design, development, deployment, and operational phases of all systems. Cyber Informed Engineering is the process by which engineers are made aware of both how to use their engineering knowledge to positively impact the cyber security in the processes by which they architect and design components and the services and security of the components themselves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decentralized and mobile biomass torrefaction to upgrade the biomass supply chain

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Takachar seeks to investigate the scaling laws and behaviors of a small-scale biomass torrefaction reactor design and its technoeconomic feasibility in various potential applications. Traditionally, biomass is logistically expensive and complicated to utilize in various energy and chemical industries, because it is often loose, wet, bulky, and present in small pockets in dispersed regions. Biomass torrefaction is an approach whereby raw biomass is subject to moderate heat, releasing low-energy molecules. The resultant torrefied biomass becomes energy and volume dense, which reduces the relative transportation cost, and in many cases can even support a local value chain that would otherwise not be possible. However, conventional biomass torrefaction systems are often large-scale, centralized in design, rending them difficult to deploy in many biomass applications in rural/decentralized regions. By building upon prior research at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the concept of small-scale, low-cost, and portable biomass torrefaction units was explored further. This investigation has led to the advancement and scale-up of the MIT technology which can be deployed to a much wider spectrum of the biomass market than the conventional technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Advancing Equity in Utility Regulation

Increasingly, states are recognizing equity as a goal of utility regulation, going beyond traditionally stated objectives to ensure that electricity systems are reliable, safe, and fairly priced. State initiatives are critical not only to address historical inequities, but to ensure equitable benefits and burdens in the transition to net-zero emissions by 2050. This report provides four perspectives on advancing equity in electric utility regulation, from representatives of energy justice and consumer organizations and a leading utility in this area. The authors provide recommendations related to regulatory issues such as stakeholder engagement, defining "public interest," intervenor funding, electricity infrastructure siting, access to distributed energy technologies, consumer protections, bill affordability programs, rate design, program design, and metrics to track and evaluate results of policies, regulations, and programs intended to deliver equitable outcomes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Applications technology satellite F&G /ATS F&G/ mobile terminal.

The mobile terminal is a flexible, easily transportable system. The terminal design incorporates a combination of unique and proven hardware to provide maximum utility consistent with reliability. The flexibility built into the system will make it possible to satisfy the requirements of the applications technology satellite program concerned with the conduction of various spacecraft technology experiments. The terminal includes two parabolic antennas.

Greenbaum, L. A.↗

Vibration detection of component health and operability

In order to prevent catastrophic failure and eliminate unnecessary periodic maintenance in the shuttle orbiter program environmental control system components, some means of detecting incipient failure in these components is required. The utilization was investigated of vibrational/acoustic phenomena as one of the principal physical parameters on which to base the design of this instrumentation. Baseline vibration/acoustic data was collected from three aircraft type fans and two aircraft type pumps over a frequency range from a few hertz to greater than 3000 kHz. The baseline data included spectrum analysis of the baseband vibration signal, spectrum analysis of the detected high frequency bandpass acoustic signal, and amplitude distribution of the high frequency bandpass acoustic signal. A total of eight bearing defects and two unbalancings was introduced into the five test items. All defects were detected by at least one of a set of vibration/acoustic parameters with a margin of at least 2:1 over the worst case baseline. The design of a portable instrument using this set of vibration/acoustic parameters for detecting incipient failures in environmental control system components is described.

Baird, B. C.↗

Alcoa wind turbines

An overview of Alcoa's wind energy program is given with emphasis on the the development of a low cost, reliable Darrieus Vertical Axis Wind Turbine System. The design layouts and drawings for fabrication are now complete, while fabrication and installation to utilize the design are expected to begin shortly.

Ai, D. K.↗

High voltage cabling for high power spacecraft

Studies by NASA have shown that many of the space missions proposed for the time period 1980 to 2000 will require large spacecraft structures to be assembled in orbit. Large antennas and power systems up to 2.5 MW size are predicted to supply the electrical/electronic subsystems, solar electric subsystems, solar electric propulsion, and space processing for the near-term programs. Platforms of 100 meters/length for stable foundations, utility stations, and supports for these multi-antenna and electronic powered mechanisms are also being considered. This paper includes the findings of an analytic and conceptual design study for large spacecraft power distribution, and electrical loads and their influence on the cable and connector requirements for these proposed large spacecraft.

Dunbar, W. G.↗

Assessment and design of low boom configurations for supersonic transport aircraft

A review is presented of presently utilized sonic boom prediction and minimization techniques. The three-pronged approach - acceptability studies, atmospheric propagation studies, and configuration design and operation, to the sonic boom problem as an element of the High Speed Research Program are discussed. Experimental and theoretical results of concepts designed to validate present minimization methods are given.

Darden, Christine M.↗

Leveraging the Educational Outreach Efforts of Low-Cost Missions

A small portion of the budget for every NASA mission must be devoted to education and public outreach. The question is, how can projects best leverage these funds to create a high-quality message and get it disseminated to the largest and most appropriate audience? This paper describes the approach taken by a small educational outreach team for NASA's New Millennium Program (NMP). The team's approach has been twofold: develop a highly desirable suite of products designed to appeal to, as well as enlighten, the target audience; then negotiate relationships with existing, often under-utilized channels for dissemination of these products. Starting with NMP missions as the base of support for these efforts, the team has invited participation by other missions. This approach has resulted in a richer and broader message, and has allowed the continuing development of the audience base.

Fisher, Diane K.↗

Launch Vehicle Demonstrator Using Shuttle Assets

The Advanced Concepts Office at NASA's George C. Marshall Space Flight Center undertook a study to define candidate early heavy lift demonstration launch vehicle concepts derived from existing space shuttle assets. The objective was to determine the performance capabilities of these vehicles and characterize potential early demonstration test flights. Given the anticipated budgetary constraints that may affect America's civil space program, and a lapse in U.S. heavy launch capability with the retirement of the space shuttle, an early heavy lift launch vehicle demonstration flight would not only demonstrate capabilities that could be utilized for future space exploration missions, but also serve as a building block for the development of our nation s next heavy lift launch system. An early heavy lift demonstration could be utilized as a test platform, demonstrating capabilities of future space exploration systems such as the Multi Purpose Crew Vehicle. By using existing shuttle assets, including the RS-25D engine inventory, the shuttle equipment manufacturing and tooling base, and the segmented solid rocket booster industry, a demonstrator concept could expedite the design-to-flight schedule while retaining critical human skills and capital. In this study two types of vehicle designs are examined. The first utilizes a high margin/safety factor battleship structural design in order to minimize development time as well as monetary investment. Structural design optimization is performed on the second, as if an operational vehicle. Results indicate low earth orbit payload capability is more than sufficient to support various vehicle and vehicle systems test programs including Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle articles. Furthermore, a shuttle-derived, hydrogen core vehicle configuration offers performance benefits when trading evolutionary paths to maximum capability.

Creech, Dennis M.↗

SKYMAP system description: Star catalog data base generation and utilization

The specifications, design, software description, and use of the SKYMAP star catalog system are detailed. The SKYMAP system was developed to provide an accurate and complete catalog of all stars with blue or visual magnitudes brighter than 9.0 for use by attitude determination programs. Because of the large number of stars which are brighter than 9.0 magnitude, efficient techniques of manipulating and accessing the data were required. These techniques of staged distillation of data from a Master Catalog to a Core Catalog, and direct access of overlapping zone catalogs, form the basis of the SKYMAP system. The collection and tranformation of data required to produce the Master Catalog data base is described. The data flow through the main programs and levels of star catalogs is detailed. The mathematical and logical techniques for each program and the format of all catalogs are documented.

Gottlieb, D. M.↗

Utilization of common pressurized modules on the Space Station Freedom

During the preliminary design review of Space Station Freedom elements and subsystems, it was shown that reductions of cost, weight, and on-orbit integration and verification would be necessary in order to meet program constraints, particularly nominal Orbiter payload launch capability. At that time, the Baseline station consisted of four resource nodes and two 44 ft modules. In this study, the viability of a common module which maintains crew and payload accommodation is assessed. The size, transportation, and orientation of modules and the accommodation of system racks and user experiments are considered and compared to baseline. Based on available weight estimates, a module pattern consisting of six 28 ft. common elements with three radial and two end ports is shown to be nearly optimal. Advantageous characteristics include a reduction in assembly flights, dual egress from all elements, logical functional allocation, no adverse impacts to international partners, favorable airlock, cupola, ACRV (Assured Crew Return Vehicle), and logistics module accommodation, and desirable flight attitude and control characteristics.

Gould, Marston J.↗

Utilization of common pressurized modules on the Space Station Freedom

During the preliminary design review of Space Station Freedom elements and subsystems, it was shown that reductions of cost, weight, and on-orbit integration and verification would be necessary in order to meet program constraints, particularly nominal Orbiter payload launch capability. At that time, the Baseline station consisted of four resource nodes and two 44 ft modules. In this study, the viability of a common module which maintains crew and payload accommodation is assessed. The size, transportation, and orientation of modules and the accommodation of system racks and user experiments are considered and compared to baseline. Based on available weight estimates, a module pattern consisting of six 28 ft common elements with three radial and two end ports is shown to be nearly optimal. Advantageous characteristics include a reduction in assembly flights, dual egress from all elements, logical functional allocation, no adverse impacts to international partners, favorable airlock, cupola, ACRV (Assured Crew Return Vehicle), and logistics module accommodation, and desirable flight attitude and control characteristics.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗