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Evaluating the design of an earth radiation budget instrument with system simulations. Part 2: Minimization of instantaneous sampling errors for CERES-I

Much of the new record of broadband earth radiation budget satellite measurements to be obtained during the late 1990s and early twenty-first century will come from the dual-radiometer Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument (CERES-I) flown aboard sun-synchronous polar orbiters. Simulation studies conducted in this work for an early afternoon satellite orbit indicate that spatial root-mean-square (rms) sampling errors of instantaneous CERES-I shortwave flux estimates will range from about 8.5 to 14.0 W/m on a 2.5 deg latitude and longitude grid resolution. Rms errors in longwave flux estimates are only about 20% as large and range from 1.5 to 3.5 W/sq m. These results are based on an optimal cross-track scanner design that includes 50% footprint overlap to eliminate gaps in the top-of-the-atmosphere coverage, and a 'smallest' footprint size to increase the ratio in the number of observations lying within to the number of observations lying on grid area boundaries. Total instantaneous measurement error also depends on the variability of anisotropic reflectance and emission patterns and on retrieval methods used to generate target area fluxes. Three retrieval procedures from both CERES-I scanners (cross-track and rotating azimuth plane) are used. (1) The baseline Earth Radiaton Budget Experiment (ERBE) procedure, which assumes that errors due to the use of mean angular dependence models (ADMs) in the radiance-to-flux inversion process nearly cancel when averaged over grid areas. (2) To estimate N, instantaneous ADMs are estimated from the multiangular, collocated observations of the two scanners. These observed models replace the mean models in computation of satellite flux estimates. (3) The scene flux approach, conducts separate target-area retrievals for each ERBE scene category and combines their results using area weighting by scene type. The ERBE retrieval performs best when the simulated radiance field departs from the ERBE mean models by less than 10%. For larger perturbations, both the scene flux and collocation methods produce less error than the ERBE retrieval. The scene flux technique is preferable, however, because it involves fewer restrictive assumptions.

Stowe, Larry↗

Integrating and Visualizing Tropical Cyclone Data Using the Real Time Mission Monitor

The Real Time Mission Monitor (RTMM) is a visualization and information system that fuses multiple Earth science data sources, to enable real time decision-making for airborne and ground validation experiments. Developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, RTMM is a situational awareness, decision-support system that integrates satellite imagery, radar, surface and airborne instrument data sets, model output parameters, lightning location observations, aircraft navigation data, soundings, and other applicable Earth science data sets. The integration and delivery of this information is made possible using data acquisition systems, network communication links, network server resources, and visualizations through the Google Earth virtual globe application. RTMM is extremely valuable for optimizing individual Earth science airborne field experiments. Flight planners, scientists, and managers appreciate the contributions that RTMM makes to their flight projects. A broad spectrum of interdisciplinary scientists used RTMM during field campaigns including the hurricane-focused 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA), 2007 NOAA-NASA Aerosonde Hurricane Noel flight, 2007 Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4), plus a soil moisture (SMAP-VEX) and two arctic research experiments (ARCTAS) in 2008. Improving and evolving RTMM is a continuous process. RTMM recently integrated the Waypoint Planning Tool, a Java-based application that enables aircraft mission scientists to easily develop a pre-mission flight plan through an interactive point-and-click interface. Individual flight legs are automatically calculated "on the fly". The resultant flight plan is then immediately posted to the Google Earth-based RTMM for interested scientists to view the planned flight track and subsequently compare it to the actual real time flight progress. We are planning additional capabilities to RTMM including collaborations with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the joint development of a Tropical Cyclone Integrated Data Exchange and Analysis System (TC IDEAS) which will serve as a web portal for access to tropical cyclone data, visualizations and model output.

Goodman, H. Michael↗

CLIMATE LECTURE 5: The Role of Clouds in Climate

David Rind has played a central role in the science of the modeling of climate change. He was the scientific driving force behind the development and evaluation of the first Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model (GCM), Model II. Model II was one of the three original GCMs whose projections of climate change in response to a doubling of CO2 concentration were the basis for the influential Charney Report that produced the first assessment of global climate sensitivity. David used Model II to pioneer the scientific field of climate dynamics, performing a broad range of investigations of processes controlling individual elements of the general circulation and how they changed over a wide range of past and potential future climates. The defining characteristic of Davids papers is his unique talent for tracking down the myriad links and causal chains among different parts of the nonlinear climate system. Rather than viewing climate using a simple forcing-and-response paradigm, David showed that the global energy, water, and even momentum cycles are coupled via the general circulation and its transports.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

A Geostationary Instrument Simulator for Aerosol Observing System Simulation Experiments

In the near future, there will be several new instruments measuring atmospheric composition from geostationary orbit over North America, East Asia, and Europe. This constellation of satellites will provide high resolution, time resolved measurements of trace gases and aerosols for monitoring air quality and tracking pollution sources. This paper describes a detailed, fast, and accurate (less than 1.0% uncertainty) method for calculating synthetic top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiances from a global simulation with a mesoscale free running model, the GEOS-5 Nature Run, for remote sensing instruments in geostationary orbit that measure in the ultraviolet-visible spectral range (UV-Vis). Generating these synthetic observations is the first step of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), a framework for evaluating the impact of a new observation or algorithm. This paper provides details of the model sampling, aerosol and cloud optical properties, surface reflectance modeling, Rayleigh scattering calculations, and a discussion of the uncertainties of the simulated TOA radiance. An application for the simulated TOA radiance observations is demonstrated in the manuscript. Simulated TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) and GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites) observations were used to show how observations from the two instruments could be combined to facilitate aerosol type discrimination. The results demonstrate the viability of a detailed instrument simulator for radiance measurements in the UV-Vis that is capable of accurately simulating high resolution, time-resolved measurements with reasonable computational efficiency.

Castellanos, Patricia↗

The Fiber Optic System for the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Instrument

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Instrument has been in integration and testing over the past 18 months in preparation for the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite - 2 (ICESat-2) Mission, scheduled to launch in 2017. ICESat-2 is the follow on to ICESat which launched in 2003 and operated until 2009. ATLAS will measure the elevation of ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice or the "cryosphere" (as well as terrain) to provide data for assessing the earth's global climate changes. Where ICESat's instrument, the Geo-Science Laser Altimeter (GLAS) used a single beam measured with a 70 m spot on the ground and a distance between spots of 170 m, ATLAS will measure a spot size of 10 m with a spacing of 70 cm using six beams to measure terrain height changes as small as 4 mm. The ATLAS pulsed transmission system consists of two lasers operating at 532 nm with transmitter optics for beam steering, a diffractive optical element that splits the signal into 6 separate beams, receivers for start pulse detection and a wavelength tracking system. The optical receiver telescope system consists of optics that focus all six beams into optical fibers that feed a filter system that transmits the signal via fiber assemblies to the detectors. Also included on the instrument is a system that calibrates the alignment of the transmitted pulses to the receiver optics for precise signal capture. The larger electro optical subsystems for transmission, calibration, and signal receive, stay aligned and transmitting sufficiently due to the optical fiber system that links them together. The robust design of the fiber optic system, consisting of a variety of multi fiber arrays and simplex assemblies with multiple fiber core sizes and types, will enable the system to maintain consistent critical alignments for the entire life of the mission. Some of the development approaches used to meet the challenging optical system requirements for ATLAS are discussed here.

global climate changes↗

Geometry of Non-Diffusive Tracer Transport in Gridded Atmospheric Models

A first-order linear and numerically non-diffusive Eulerian transport algorithm, minVAR, was recently developed for preservation of correlations between interrelated tracers during advective transport. The present study extends this work by: (1) providing further investigation of several interesting geometric constructions found in contours of constant minVAR, short for minimum variance, through extension to three coordinate dimensions. These contours capture point-by-point representations of thousands of individual atmospheric aerosol and/or cloud particles as they evolve and are rendered on Eulerian grids at a level of sub-grid resolution limited only by numerical precision; and (2) exploration of geometric similarities between the Arakawa C-grid, used to obtain interpolated values of the wind field at grid scale and minVAR. In particular, we consider interpolation of the u and v horizontal components of wind velocity from grid to sub-grid scales. The last results are motivated by recent applications of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied in the coastal Houston region, where the recent TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) field campaign was organized. A unique and fully consistent mapping is obtained between particles moving along meteorological wind trajectories and the non-diffusive, non-dispersive representation of such trajectories on an Eulerian grid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Two Years of Site Diversity Measurements in Guam, USA

As NASA communication networks upgrade to higher frequencies, such as Ka-Band, atmospherically induced attenuation can become significant. This attenuation is caused by rain, clouds and atmospheric gases (oxygen and water vapor), with rain having the most noticeable effects. One technique to circumvent the increase in attenuation is to operate two terminals separated by a distance that exceeds the average rain cell size. The fact that rain cells are of finite size can then be exploited by rerouting the signal to the terminal with the strongest link. This technique, known as site diversity, is best suited for climates that have compact (less than 2km) and intense rain cells such as in Guam. In order to study the potential diversity gain at the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) Remote Ground Terminal (GRGT) complex in Guam a site test interferometer (STI) was installed in May of 2010. The STI is composed of two terminals with a 900m baseline that observe the same unmodulated beacon signal broadcast from a geostationary satellite (e.g., UFO 8). The potential site diversity gain is calculated by measuring the difference in signal attenuation seen at each terminal. Over the two years of data collection the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the site diversity gain shows a better than 3 dB improvement for 90% of the time over standard operation. These results show that the use of site diversity in Guam can be very effective in combating rain fades.

Acosta, Roberto J.↗

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simultaneous Trajectory Tracking Control and Online Mass Estimation for a Regolith Excavating Robot via Integral Concurrent Learning

An adaptive controller is developed for a regolith excavation robot to determine the mass of excavated material and to account for the effects of gravity and friction while on the surface of other celestial bodies. A data-based integral concurrent learning (ICL) parameter update law accounts for and estimates the unknown mass, gravity, and friction parameters. A Lyapunov-based analysis proves that the trajectory tracking error and the parameter estimate errors exponentially converge to zero. An estimation of the mass of regolith excavated by the robot is calculated from the estimated parameters. A simulation study is performed to show the performance of the developed technique. Simulation results show that for 3 kilograms of excavated material, the mass estimate has an error of 4.9 grams.

Max L. Greene↗

Airborne full polarization radiometry using the MSFC Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR)

The applications of vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures in both atmospheric and surface remote sensing have been long recognized by many investigators, particularly those studying SMMR and SSM/I data. Here, the large contrast between the first two Stokes' parameters (T(sub V) and T(sub H)) can be used for detection of sea ice, measurement of ocean surface wind speed, and measurement of cloud and water vapor opacity. High-resolution aircraft data from instruments such as the NASA/MSFC AMPR is crucial for verifying radiative transfer models and developing retrieval algorithms. Currently, the AMPR is outfitted with single-polarization channels at 10, 18, 37 and 85 GHz. To increase its utility, it is proposed that additional orthogonal linearly polarized channels be added to the AMPR. Since the AMPR's feedhorns are already configured for dual orthogonal linearly polarized modes, this would require only a duplication of the currently existing receivers. To circumvent the resulting polarization basis skew caused by the cross-track scanning mechanism, the technique of Electronic Polarization Basis Rotation is proposed to be implemented. Implementation of EPBR requires precise measurement of the third Stokes parameter and will eliminate polarization skew by allowing the feedhorn basis skew angle to be corrected in software. In addition to upgrading AMPR to dual polarization capability (without skew), the modifications will provide an opportunity to demonstrate EPBR on an airborne platform. This is a highly desirable intermediate step prior to satellite implementation.

Gasiewski, Al J.↗

Cloud fluctuation statistics

A space-time statistical analysis of total outgoing infrared radiation is used to determine the gross features of day-to-day cloudiness fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean in summer and winter. IR fluctuations arise from the passage of cloudiness systems through a grid box as well as the creation and destruction of cloudiness in the box. Which process dominates depends upon the size of the box relative to the size, speed and persistence time of a typical cloudiness system. In most regions the statistical analysis yields advection speeds characteristic of 700 mb mean flow with spatial dependence resembling the 300 mb mean flow. Spatial scales less than 2000 km predominate, smaller scales having less persistence. Characteristic time scales are on the order of one or two days, even for a grid box spanning the entire North Pacific storm track. This result is remarkable in view of the much longer time scales commonly associated with atmospheric disturbances. Apparently many cloudiness systems are created and destroyed during the lifetime of a single disturbance.

Cahalan, R. F.↗

MISR Level 1B2 Ellipsoid Data (MI1B2E_V3)

The MISR instrument consists of nine pushbroom cameras which measure radiance in four spectral bands. Global coverage is achieved in nine days. The cameras are arranged with one camera pointing toward the nadir, four cameras pointing forward and four cameras pointing aftward. It takes 7 minutes for all nine cameras to view the same surface location. The view angles relative to the surface reference ellipsoid, are 0, 26.1, 45.6, 60.0, and 70.5 degrees. The spectral band shapes are nominally gaussian, centered at 443, 555, 670, and 865 nm. The Ellipsoid product is referenced to the World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84) ellipsoid, which approximates the Earth's shape at sea level. In this product, the radiances and associated altitudes are projected to the ellipsoid, so that higher elevation data appear displaced from their true location for non-nadir camera views, much as they are seen by the instrument. (A cloud at location F, or a mountain top at location T in the image below appears as if it is at location E.) The more oblique the camera view, or the higher in altitude the feature, the more displaced the elevated data will appear. This displacement is used to advantage in MISR stereo retrievals, and this product is the primary input to Level 2 top-of-atmosphere/cloud processing. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=563.2 km (cross-track); Longitude_Resolution=140.8 km (along-track); Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=about 15 orbits/day].

TOA↗

Ultraviolet digital holographic microscopy (DHM) of micron-scale particles from shocked Sn ejecta

A cloud of very fast, O (km/s), and very fine, O (µm), particles may be ejected when a strong shock impacts and possibly melts the free surface of a solid metal. To quantify these dynamics, this work develops an ultraviolet, long-working distance, two-pulse Digital Holographic Microscopy (DHM) configuration and is the first to replace film recording with digital sensors for this challenging application. A proposed multi-iteration DHM processing algorithm is demonstrated for automated measures of the sizes, velocities, and three-dimensional positions of non-spherical particles. Ejecta as small as 2 µm diameter are successfully tracked, while uncertainty simulations indicate that particle size distributions are accurately quantified for diameters ≥4 µm. These techniques are demonstrated on three explosively driven experiments. Measured ejecta size and velocity statistics are shown to be consistent with prior film-based recording, while also revealing spatial variations in velocities and 3D positions that have yet to be widely investigated. Having eliminated time-consuming analog film processing, the methodologies proposed here are expected to significantly accelerate future experimental investigation of ejecta physics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

S2M: A Stochastic Simulation Model of Poliovirus Genetic State Transition

Modeling the molecular mechanisms that govern genetic variation can be useful in understanding the dynamics that drive genetic state transition in quasispecies viruses. For example, there is considerable interest in understanding how the relatively benign vaccine strains of poliovirus eventually revert to forms that confer neurovirulence and cause disease (ie, vaccine-derived poliovirus). This report describes a stochastic simulation model, S2M, which can be used to generate hypothetical outcomes based on known mechanisms of genetic diversity. S2M begins with predefined genotypes based on the Sabin-1 and Mahoney wild-type sequences, constructs a set of independent cell-based populations, and performs in-cell replication and cell-to-cell infection cycles while quantifying genetic changes that track the transition from Sabin-1 toward Mahoney. Realism is incorporated into the model by assigning defaults for variables that constrain mechanisms of genetic variability based roughly on metrics reported in the literature, yet these values can be modified at the command line in order to generate hypothetical outcomes driven by these parameters. To demonstrate the utility of S2M, simulations were performed to examine the effects of the rates of replication error and recombination and the presence or absence of defective interfering particles, upon reaching the end states of Mahoney resemblance (semblance of a vaccine-derived state), neurovirulence, genome fitness, and cloud diversity. Simulations provide insight into how modeled biological features may drive hypothetical outcomes, independently or in combination, in ways that are not always intuitively obvious.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ADVANCING THE TRANSPORTATION – SECURITY, TRACKING, AND REPORTING (T-STAR) SYSTEM

The Transportation – Security, Tracking and Reporting (T-STAR) System was developed by NNSA NA-21 Office of Radiological Security (ORS) to provide a transportation security system for use during transport of Category 1 and Category 2 radiological material to provide detection and tracking capability for shipments. While many off the shelf systems provide asset tracking of the conveyance, few offer detection of a breach into the cargo compartment or the removal of cargo from the conveyance. Systems that do offer such capability need to be permanently installed on the conveyance, requiring drilling of holes and running of cables throughout the conveyance itself. This means that dedicated shipping containers or vehicles are required, and this is not sustainable in many countries where ORS is building capacity for the security of radioactive materials in use, storage, and in transport. T-STAR is leveraging various ORNL technologies for improved communications capability and reduced power requirements; the multimode communications module developed by the Unmanned Aerial Systems group and the low power and extensible Authenticatable Container Tracking System (ACTS) tag developed for the US Department of Energy’s Packaging Certification Program provide a small footprint tracking system which can be installed quickly as needed. T-STAR uses a cellular and an Iridium modem to communicate configuration and alert information to a server used to monitor the shipment and incorporates a Z-wave © wireless security system allowing various intrusion detection sensors to be located in the conveyance. The Z-wave sensors are readily available, inexpensive, and power efficient, making them replaceable and low maintenance. The server software be configured as a standalone system installed on a light duty computer hosted by the competent authority, carrier, or response agency, or hosted as part of an Amazon Cloud Server (AWS) accessible via a secure login. The server has two functions, first is to handle messages to/from the T-STAR field unit, second is to host the user interface which can be accessed using a web browser on desktop or mobile device. The user interface implements roles to determine the level of access to shipment information, define geo-fences, and configure notifications. The user interface also supports multiple languages for display as well as notifications by using a simple lookup file which can be modified by the host country to ensure translations are correct and meaningful to responders receiving notifications and alerts. This paper will detail the overarching T-STAR capabilities, architecture and components, and provide insights on how it is deployed, used, and monitored during transportation of radioactive material.

Schultze, Michael↗

MISR Level 1B2 Ellipsoid Data (MI1B2E_V1)

The MISR instrument consists of nine pushbroom cameras which measure radiance in four spectral bands. Global coverage is achieved in nine days. The cameras are arranged with one camera pointing toward the nadir, four cameras pointing forward and four cameras pointing aftward. It takes 7 minutes for all nine cameras to view the same surface location. The view angles relative to the surface reference ellipsoid, are 0, 26.1, 45.6, 60.0, and 70.5 degrees. The spectral band shapes are nominally gaussian, centered at 443, 555, 670, and 865 nm. The Ellipsoid product is referenced to the World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84) ellipsoid, which approximates the Earth's shape at sea level. In this product, the radiances and associated altitudes are projected to the ellipsoid, so that higher elevation data appear displaced from their true location for non-nadir camera views, much as they are seen by the instrument. (A cloud at location F, or a mountain top at location T in the image below appears as if it is at location E.) The more oblique the camera view, or the higher in altitude the feature, the more displaced the elevated data will appear. This displacement is used to advantage in MISR stereo retrievals, and this product is the primary input to Level 2 top-of-atmosphere/cloud processing. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=563.2 km (cross-track); Longitude_Resolution=140.8 km (along-track); Horizontal_Resolution_Range=250 meters - < 500 meters; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=about 15 orbits/day].

EOSDIS↗

MISR Level 1B2 Ellipsoid Data (MI1B2E_V2)

The MISR instrument consists of nine pushbroom cameras which measure radiance in four spectral bands. Global coverage is achieved in nine days. The cameras are arranged with one camera pointing toward the nadir, four cameras pointing forward and four cameras pointing aftward. It takes 7 minutes for all nine cameras to view the same surface location. The view angles relative to the surface reference ellipsoid, are 0, 26.1, 45.6, 60.0, and 70.5 degrees. The spectral band shapes are nominally gaussian, centered at 443, 555, 670, and 865 nm. The Ellipsoid product is referenced to the World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS84) ellipsoid, which approximates the Earth's shape at sea level. In this product, the radiances and associated altitudes are projected to the ellipsoid, so that higher elevation data appear displaced from their true location for non-nadir camera views, much as they are seen by the instrument. (A cloud at location F, or a mountain top at location T in the image below appears as if it is at location E.) The more oblique the camera view, or the higher in altitude the feature, the more displaced the elevated data will appear. This displacement is used to advantage in MISR stereo retrievals, and this product is the primary input to Level 2 top-of-atmosphere/cloud processing. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=563.2 km (cross-track); Longitude_Resolution=140.8 km (along-track); Horizontal_Resolution_Range=500 meters - < 1 km; Temporal_Resolution=about 15 orbits/day; Temporal_Resolution_Range=about 15 orbits/day].

EOSDIS↗

An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work

Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗