SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “deterministic method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 991 records · Page 55

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Super-resolution surface slope metrology of x-ray mirrors

We present experimental, analytical, and numerical methods developed for reconstruction (deconvolution) of one-dimensional (1D) surface slope profiles over the spatial frequency range where the raw data are significantly perturbed due to the limited resolution of the measurement instrument. We characterize the spatial resolution properties of a profiler with the instrument's transfer function (ITF). To precisely measure the ITF, we apply a recently developed method utilizing test surfaces with 1D linear chirped height profiles of constant slope amplitude. Based on the results of the ITF calibration, we determine parameters of an analytical model for the ITF that is used in the original reconstruction software. Here, we treat surface slope metrology data obtained with the Optical Surface Measuring System (OSMS), using as a sensor an electronic autocollimator (AC) ELCOMAT-3000. The spatial resolution of the OSMS is limited by the size of the AC light-beam-collimating aperture. For the purposes of this investigation, the OSMS is equipped with a circular aperture with a diameter of 2.5 mm. This is a typical arrangement of most AC-based slope profilers developed for surface slope metrology of state-of-the-art x-ray mirrors. Using the example of surface slope metrology of two state-of-the-art elliptically shaped x-ray focusing mirrors, we demonstrate that the developed data reconstruction procedure allows us to significantly improve the accuracy of surface slope metrology with the OSMS over the spatial wavelength range from ~1.6 mm to 7 mm. Thus, the amplitude of the quasi-periodic error characteristic of the deterministic polishing process used appears to be higher by a factor of~2 than is apparent from the rough metrology data. Underestimation of the surface slope errors in this spatial wavelength range can lead to serious errors in the expected performance of x-ray mirrors in synchrotron beamlines, especially at modern light sources utilizing coherent x rays, where the perturbations can lead to increased speckle-like intensity variation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Status of the OECD/NEA Watts Bar unit 1 benchmark and calculations of local reactor core power data of the Zero Power physics tests

The paper aims to provide an update on the status of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) / the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Watts Bar 1 (WB1) Multi-Physics Multi-Cycle depletion benchmark and the results associated with Exercise 1. The benchmark relies on the set of benchmark progression problems developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) for the Virtual Environment for Reactor (VERA), which are based on real plant design and operational data. The OECD/NEA TVA WB1 benchmark is designed for validation of both traditional and novel high-fidelity multi-physics codes to analyze Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) depletion cycles. The activities are conducted under the Expert Group on Reactor Systems Multi-Physics (EGMUP) at NEA/OECD. In this work, we analyze Exercise 1 of the benchmark: stand-alone Three-Dimensional (3D) neutronics at Start-up Zero Power Physics Test (ZPPT) at Hot Zero Power Conditions (HZP) and the resulting power maps. The code used to model the exercise is the continuous energy Monte Carlo code Serpent 2.1.31 along with the nuclear data library ENDF/B-VII.1. Serpent results are compared with the high-fidelity deterministic code MPACT, which is part of VERA. The paper presents three selected results from power calculations required output. The results compared are the normalized axially integrated radial core power maps, the normalized axial averaged core power shapes, and the normalized core hottest and coldest assemblies radial power maps. The Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) between Serpent and MPACT is 0.51 % for the axially integrated radial core power map, 1.41 % for the axial averaged core power shape, 2.42 % for the hottest assembly axial power shape, 0.88 % for the coldest assembly axial integrated hottest assembly radial pin power map, and 0.17 % for the axially integrated coldest assembly radial pin power map. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An evaluation of GPT models for phenotype concept recognition

Clinical deep phenotyping and phenotype annotation play a critical role in both the diagnosis of patients with rare disorders as well as in building computationally-tractable knowledge in the rare disorders field. These processes rely on using ontology concepts, often from the Human Phenotype Ontology, in conjunction with a phenotype concept recognition task (supported usually by machine learning methods) to curate patient profiles or existing scientific literature. With the significant shift in the use of large language models (LLMs) for most NLP tasks, we examine the performance of the latest Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models underpinning ChatGPT as a foundation for the tasks of clinical phenotyping and phenotype annotation. The experimental setup of the study included seven prompts of various levels of specificity, two GPT models (gpt-3.5-turbo and gpt-4.0) and two established gold standard corpora for phenotype recognition, one consisting of publication abstracts and the other clinical observations. The best run, using in-context learning, achieved 0.58 document-level F1 score on publication abstracts and 0.75 document-level F1 score on clinical observations, as well as a mention-level F1 score of 0.7, which surpasses the current best in class tool. Without in-context learning, however, performance is significantly below the existing approaches. Our experiments show that gpt-4.0 surpasses the state of the art performance if the task is constrained to a subset of the target ontology where there is prior knowledge of the terms that are expected to be matched. While the results are promising, the non-deterministic nature of the outcomes, the high cost and the lack of concordance between different runs using the same prompt and input make the use of these LLMs challenging for this particular task.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

On the use of reverse Brownian motion to accelerate hybrid simulations

Multiscale and multiphysics simulations are two rapidly developing fields of scientific computing. Efficient coupling of continuum (deterministic or stochastic) constitutive solvers with their discrete (stochastic, particle-based) counterparts is a common challenge in both kinds of simulations. We focus on interfacial, tightly coupled simulations of diffusion that combine continuum and particle-based solvers. The latter employs the reverse Brownian motion (rBm), a Monte Carlo approach that allows one to enforce inhomogeneous Dirichlet, Neumann, or Robin boundary conditions and is trivially parallelizable. We discuss numerical approaches for improving the accuracy of rBm in the presence of inhomogeneous Neumann boundary conditions and alternative strategies for coupling the rBm solver with its continuum counterpart. Numerical experiments are used to investigate the convergence, stability, and computational efficiency of the proposed hybrid algorithm.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

SDN Project

The SDN Project completed on time and on budget and successfully accomplished 100% of the scope of work outlined in the original Statement of Project Objective (SOPO). The SDN Project formed an alliance between Ameren Corporation, University of Illinois Urbana- Champaign (UIUC), Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL), and Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. (SEL). The objective of the SDN Project is to address Topic Area of Interest 2: Sustain critical energy delivery functions while responding to a cyber-intrusion under Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-0000797. The goal of the project is to design and commercially release technology that provides a method to sustain critical energy delivery functions during a cyber intrusion and to do this control system operators need the ability to quickly identify and isolate the affected network areas, and re-route critical information and control flows around. The objective of the SDN Project is to develop a Flow Controller that monitors, configures, and maintains the safe, reliable network traffic flows of all the local area networks (LANs) on a control system in the Energy sector. The SDN team identified the core attributes of a control system and produced an SDN flow controller that has the same core attributes enabling networks to be designed, configured and deployed that maximize the whitelisted, deny-bydefault and purpose built networks. This project researched, developed and commercially released technology that: Enables all field networks be to configured and monitored as if they are a single asset to be protected; Enables greatly improved and even precalculated response actions to reliability and cyber events; Supports pre-configured localized response actions tailored to provide resilience against failures and centralized response to cyber-attacks that improve network reliability and availability; Architecturally enables the right subject matter experts, who are usually the information technology and operational technology engineers, to be the ones centrally administering the technology and responding to events; Simplifies network configuration, improving deterministic Ethernet transport times, and providing instant visualization on where the communication circuits are and how all circuits are impacted when changes (e.g., configuration changes, failures or intrusions) happen, allowing operators to minimize downtime; and Improves the ability to identify deviations in network behavior resulting in detection and analysis of potential cyber intrusions and faster response times Results: This project has forever changed the way critical infrastructure networks are designed, secured, deployed and maintained. The cybersecurity and performance advantages achieved are significant, simply put traditional networking has been obsoleted while the team maintained Ethernet interoperability avoiding any legacy concerns. The team commercially released technology that accomplished all the cybersecurity goals outlined in the SOPO and completed it by executing the project management plan approved in the initial contract. The resulting Energy sector SDN flow controller model number is SEL-5056 and can be freely downloaded from the www.SELinc.com website. This technology not only improves the cybersecurity of control systems but has measured results that it improves the performance and reliability of the control system as well. This means the system owners can confidently apply it to their systems knowing that it will, “first do no harm” but actually improve the system as well. Success of the project is best measured by the sales and deployment of the technology. System owners in industrial, electric, defense, and oil and gas only months after commercial release have approved plans for deployment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extension of the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay model to multichance fission

The Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay model, HF 3 D, which calculates the statistical decay of fission fragments, has been expanded to include multichance fission, up to neutron incident energies of 20 MeV. The deterministic decay takes as input prescission quantities—fission probabilities and the average energy causing fission—and postscission quantities—yields in mass, charge, total kinetic energy, spin, and parity. From these fission fragment initial conditions, the full decay is followed through both prompt and delayed particle emissions, allowing for the calculation of prompt neutron and γ properties, such as multiplicity and energy distributions, both independent and cumulative fission yields, and delayed neutron observables. Here, we describe the implementation of multichance fission in the HF 3 D model, and show an example of prompt and delayed quantities beyond first-chance fission, using the example of neutron-induced fission on 235 U. This expansion represents significant progress in consistently modeling the emission of prompt and delayed particles from fissile systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Upgrading Limiting Peak-Power Analysis Techniques with Modern Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for the Advanced Test Reactor

Here, this work demonstrates the acceptability of the 2D deterministic transport code, HELIOS, to replace the legacy diffusion code, PDQ, for computing the peak-power performance parameters of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). The 95% Confidence Rule, commonly used in the commercial reactor sector, is explored to develop the so-called “reliability factors” which provide statistical confidence that the peak-power limits within the hottest location along a fuel plate, referred to as the hot-stripe, will not be exceeded. Additionally, an alternative “legacy” methodology was explored that attempts to mimic the exact PDQ analysis process used for defining the peak-power limits. The legacy methodology, involves interpolating power between regions at azimuthal boundaries subtending the regions of interest. In order to apply the 95% Confidence Rule, a statistically significant calculation-to-measurement bias must first be established. Unlike the commercial world where thousands of power observations can be collected every cycle using on-line flux mapping instrumentation, the ATR power distribution must be measured during “depressurized” zero-power measurements using fission wires in polyethylene wands. In 2012, fission wire activation data was collected during a flux run in the Advanced Test Reactor – Critical facility. Also to improve statistical validity, archival data from ATR zero power flux runs from 1977, 1986, and 1994 were digitized from scanned reports and used to create new benchmark models. Borrowing from least-squares adjustment methods commonly used for neutron activation spectroscopy, adjusted fission wire powers were calculated for all four datasets. The mean and standard deviation of the bias between a priori calculated and adjusted wire-powers was then taken as the bias and uncertainty used in the 95% Confidence Rule.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2004

Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty

Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Griffin Software Development Plan

Griffin is a MOOSE-based reactor physics application for advanced reactor multiphysics modeling and simulation. The application is developed in a consistent multiphysics environment with strong software quality assurance. Griffin inherited most of the capabilities of MAMMOTH/Rattlesnake and is adopting the capabilities from PROTEUS that are needed in the code. The toolset includes a variety of deterministic radiation transport solvers for fixed source, k-eigenvalue, ad-joint, and subcritical multiplication, as well as transient solvers for point-kinetics, improved quasi-static, and spatial dynamics. The code contains the cross-section preparation capabilities applicable to fast and thermal reactors, including TRISO-fueled reactors. Core management capabilities include core performance, fuel depletion and shuffling, equilibrium core calculation, pebble-bed reactor run-in and equilibrium core, molten-salt reactor delayed neutron precursor drift, and control rod and drum movement with cusping correction. This software development plan presents the current and future capabilities and features in Griffin for the design and analysis of non-light-water reactor systems in steady-state and transient conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2017

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 VERSION 5.2 SAFETY ANALYSIS CODE SYSTEM

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a software simulation tool used to perform deterministic safety analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced nuclear reactors. This software can be used to assess the safety of a prescribed reactor design, but it cannot be used to configure a design to meet targeted performance objectives. Detailed, mechanistic models of steady-state and transient thermal, hydraulic, kinetic, and mechanical phenomena are employed to describe the response of the reactor core, the reactor primary and secondary coolant loops, the reactor control and protection systems and the balance-of-plant to accidents caused by changes in coolant flow, oss of heat rejection, or reactivity insertion. The consequences of single and double-fault accidents can be modeled, including fuel and coolant heating, fuel and cladding mechanical behavior, core reactivity feedbacks, coolant loop performance including natural circulation, and decay heat removal. Analyses are typically terminated upon demonstration of reactor and plant shutdown to permanently coolable conditions or upon violation of design basis margins. The objective of the analysis is to quantify accident consequences as measured by the transient behavior of system performance parameters, such as fuel and cladding temperatures, reactivity, and cladding strain. Originally developed for analysis of sodium cooled reactors with oxide fuel clad by stainless steel, the models In SAS4A/SASSYS-1 were subsequently extended and specialized to metallic fuel clad with advanced alloys and to several other coolant options including lead and LBE. METHOD OF SOLUTION: Each subassembly in the reactor core is represented with single or multiple-pin models. One channel represents one or more fuel pins and many channels are employed for a whole-core representation. Heat transfer in each pin is modeled with a two-dimensional (r/z) heat conduction equation. Single and two-phase coolant thermal-hydraulics are simulated with a unique, one-dimensional (axial) multiple-bubble liquid metal boiling model. The transient fuel and cladding mechanical behavior models are integrated with fission product production,release, and transport models. UNIQUE FEATURES: The physical models in SAS4AJSASSYS-1 are highly detailed 1umerical representations of reactor accident conditions based on extensive laboratory and test reactor results. The models are specialized to liquid metal (sodium) cooled fast reactors with oxide or metallic fuel clad with stainless steel.«

Fanning, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2001

Investigating Uncertainty in Predicting Carbon Dynamics in North American Biomes: Putting Support-Effect Bias in Perspective

A fundamental strategy in NASA's Earth Observing System's (EOS) monitoring of vegetation and its contribution to the global carbon cycle is to rely on deterministic, process-based ecosystem models to make predictions of carbon flux over large regions. These models are parameterized (that is, the input variables are derived) using remotely sensed images such as those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ground measurements and interpolated maps. Since early applications of these models, investigators have noted that results depend partly on the spatial support of the input variables. In general, the larger the support of the input data, the greater the chance that the effects of important components of the ecosystem will be averaged out. A review of previous work shows that using large supports can cause either positive or negative bias in carbon flux predictions. To put the magnitude and direction of these biases in perspective, we must quantify the range of uncertainty on our best measurements of carbon-related variables made on equivalent areas. In other words, support-effect bias should be placed in the context of prediction uncertainty from other sources. If the range of uncertainty at the smallest support is less than the support-effect bias, more research emphasis should probably be placed on support sizes that are intermediate between those of field measurements and MODIS. If the uncertainty range at the smallest support is larger than the support-effect bias, the accuracy of MODIS-based predictions will be difficult to quantify and more emphasis should be placed on field-scale characterization and sampling. This talk will describe methods to address these issues using a field measurement campaign in North America and "upscaling" using geostatistical estimation and simulation.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Using emergent order to shape a space society

A fast-growing movement in the scientific community is reshaping the way that we view the world around us. The short-hand name for this movement is 'chaos'. Chaos is a science of the global, nonlinear nature of systems. The center of this set of ideas is that simple, deterministic systems can breed complexity. Systems as complex as the human body, ecology, the mind or a human society. While it is true that simple laws can breed complexity, the other side is that complex systems can breed order. It is the latter that I will focus on in this paper. In the past, nonlinear was nearly synonymous with unsolvable because no general analytic solutions exist. Mathematically, an essential difference exists between linear and nonlinear systems. For linear systems, you just break up the complicated system into many simple pieces and patch together the separated solutions for each piece to form a solution to the full problem. In contrast, solutions to a nonlinear system cannot be added to form a new solution. The system must be treated in its full complexity. While it is true that no general analytical approach exists for reducing a complex system such as a society, it can be modeled. The technical involves a mathematical construct called phase space. In this space stable structures can appear which I use as analogies for the stable structures that appear in a complex system such as an ecology, the mind or a society. The common denominator in all of these systems is that they rely on a process called feedback loops. Feedback loops link the microscopic (individual) parts to the macroscopic (global) parts. The key, then, in shaping a space society, is in effectively using feedback loops. This paper will illustrate how one can model a space society by using methods that chaoticists have developed over the last hundred years. And I will show that common threads exist in the modeling of biological, economical, philosophical, and sociological systems.

Graps, Amara L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Estimating the Rate of Occurrence of Renal Stones in Astronauts

Changes in urine chemistry, during and post flight, potentially increases the risk of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidence of renal stones in US astronauts exists and the question "How much does this risk change with space flight?" remains difficult to accurately quantify. In this discussion, we tackle this question utilizing a combination of deterministic and probabilistic modeling that implements the physics behind free stone growth and agglomeration, speciation of urine chemistry and published observations of population renal stone incidences to estimate changes in the rate of renal stone presentation. The modeling process utilizes a Population Balance Equation based model developed in the companion IWS abstract by Kassemi et al. (2016) to evaluate the maximum growth and agglomeration potential from a specified set of urine chemistry values. Changes in renal stone occurrence rates are obtained from this model in a probabilistic simulation that interrogates the range of possible urine chemistries using Monte Carlo techniques. Subsequently, each randomly sampled urine chemistry undergoes speciation analysis using the well-established Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS) code to calculate critical values, such as ionic strength and relative supersaturation. The Kassemi model utilizes this information to predict the mean and maximum stone size. We close the assessment loop by using a transfer function that estimates the rate of stone formation from combining the relative supersaturation and both the mean and maximum free stone growth sizes. The transfer function is established by a simulation analysis which combines population stone formation rates and Poisson regression. Training this transfer function requires using the output of the aforementioned assessment steps with inputs from known non-stone-former and known stone-former urine chemistries. Established in a Monte Carlo system, the entire renal stone analysis model produces a probability distribution of the stone formation rate and an expected uncertainty in the estimate. The utility of this analysis will be demonstrated by showing the change in renal stone occurrence predicted by this method using urine chemistry distributions published in Whitson et al. 2009. A comparison to the model predictions to previous assessments of renal stone risk will be used to illustrate initial validation of the model.

gravitational physiology↗

NASA NTRS2019

Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS

New precipitation (P) datasets are released regularly, following innovations in weather forecasting models, satellite retrieval methods, and multi-source merging techniques. Using the conterminous US as a case study, we evaluated the performance of 26 gridded (sub-)daily P datasets to obtain insight into the merit of these innovations. The evaluation was performed at a daily timescale for the period 2008–2017 using the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), a performance metric combining correlation, bias, and variability. As a reference, we used the high-resolution (4 km) Stage-IV gauge-radar P dataset. Among the three KGE components, the P datasets performed worst overall in terms of correlation (related to event identification). In terms of improving KGE scores for these datasets, improved P totals (affecting the bias score) and improved distribution of P intensity (affecting the variability score) are of secondary importance. Among the 11 gauge-corrected P datasets, the best overall performance was obtained by MSWEP V2.2, underscoring the importance of applying daily gauge corrections and accounting for gauge reporting times. Several uncorrected P datasets outperformed gauge-corrected ones. Among the 15 uncorrected P datasets, the best performance was obtained by the ERA5-HRES fourth-generation reanalysis, reflecting the significant advances in earth system modeling during the last decade. The (re)analyses generally performed better in winter than in summer, while the opposite was the case for the satellite-based datasets. IMERGHH V05 performed substantially better than TMPA-3B42RT V7, attributable to the many improvements implemented in the IMERG satellite P retrieval algorithm. IMERGHH V05 outperformed ERA5-HRES in regions dominated by convective storms, while the opposite was observed in regions of complex terrain. The ERA5-EDA ensemble average exhibited higher correlations than the ERA5-HRES deterministic run, highlighting the value of ensemble modeling. The WRF regional convection-permitting climate model showed considerably more accurate P totals over the mountainous west and performed best among the uncorrected datasets in terms of variability, suggesting there is merit in using high-resolution models to obtain climatological P statistics. Our findings provide some guidance to choose the most suitable P dataset for a particular application.

Hylke E. Beck↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Impact of ARM on Climate Modeling

Climate models are among humanity's most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability, and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of the Earth down to one hundred kilometers or smaller, and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. The atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). In an AGCM, calculations are done on a three-dimensional grid, which in some of today's climate models consists of several million grid cells. For each grid cell, about a dozen variables are time-stepped as the model integrates forward from its initial conditions. These so-called prognostic variables have special importance because they are the only things that a model remembers from one time step to the next; everything else is recreated on each time step by starting from the prognostic variables and the boundary conditions. The prognostic variables typically include information about the mass of dry air, the temperature, the wind components, water vapor, various condensed-water species, and at least a few chemical species such as ozone. A good way to understand how climate models work is to consider the lengthy and complex process used to develop one. Lets imagine that a new AGCM is to be created, starting from a blank piece of paper. The model may be intended for a particular class of applications, e.g., high-resolution simulations on time scales of a few decades. Before a single line of code is written, the conceptual foundation of the model must be designed through a creative envisioning that starts from the intended application and is based on current understanding of how the atmosphere works and the inventory of mathematical methods available.

atmospheric circulation↗

DOE OSTI2019

Development of Critical Experiments to Provide Validation Data for Multiphysics Coupling Methods (Final Report)

Computational simulation has become one of the most important tools in the modern toolbox for nuclear reactor design. Reactor simulations, like the reactors themselves, involve multiple physical processes including neutronics, fluid flow and heat transfer (thermal-hydraulics), thermo-mechanics, fuel behavior, chemistry, and balance of plant. Each process can affect the behavior of the others, and advanced computational tools have been developed that couple separate physics models together to simulate the feedback effects. The objective of this work is to generate experimental data to support the validation of multi-physics reactor codes. It specifically targets the SHARP toolset from the NEAMS Reactor Product Line, but it is intended to be useful in any set of coded that couples thermal-hydraulics with neutronics simulations. The project takes advantage of the inherent flexibility of the RPI Reactor Critical Facility (RCF), a low power open-pool research reactor. The standard configuration of the RCF is used to explore the effects of moderator temperature on neutronic behavior and reactivity. Because the low power of the reactor generates no appreciable temperature change in the moderator, the moderator temperature is artificially changed with two 18 kW electric immersion heaters. The temperature feedback effects can be observed by recording the change in the reactor power as the reactor goes from a supercritical state, to critical, to a subcritical state. To expand the temperature range and temperature rate of change that can be investigated, an experimental apparatus consisting of a heated water loop was designed and installed in the RCF. In this setup, water from a heated reservoir tank is pumped through a pipe placed through the center of the reactor core. The water in the reservoir can be heated to around 70 °C and pumped through the system. The pump has a variable flow rate and electronic control, so a number of scenarios can be developed. A slug of water can be pushed through the system to generate a reasonably fast change in reactivity. The pump speed can be increased or decreased over the course of a measurement, or even oscillated at different periods, to observe the response of the reactor. To complement the experimental data generated by the RCF, a set of computational models have been developed. They are intended to illustrate the usefulness of the experimental data generated in validating coupled multi-physics simulations. A model previously constructed in MCNP has been used in conjunction with safety analysis at the RCF for many years and was modified to support the design of the heated water loop experiment. This model was translated into Serpent 2, a similar Monte Carlo code, which provided the added advantage of being able to produce collapsed cross-section data files for use in the deterministic neutron transport codes that are part of the SHARP toolset. A complete reconstruction of the RCF model, both with and without the heated fluid loop experiment, were necessary for use with the SHARP codes, PROTEUS (neutronics) and Nek5000 (thermal hydraulics), as these require an unstructured mesh format to operate. The computational requirements for fully coupled three dimensional simulations are significant, and challenges to full implementation and comparison with RCF experiments remain. A wide variety of experiments have been conducted for eventual benchmarking and validation of multi-physics reactor codes. A complete database of detailed time- and temperature-dependent measurements have been generated and stored. Several examples of the experimental results are presented here, with refinement and analysis of experiments ongoing. While these experiments still only address a finite range of operating conditions, in particular being limited to water in the sub-boiling regime, they represent a unique (to date) look at the feedback between temperature and neutronic behavior suited for validation of the coupling routines in multi-physics codes. It is hoped that these will be the foundation of future benchmarks that will provide confidence in the tools that will be used to develop the next generation of nuclear reactor systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Distributions of the Mean for Lognormally Distributed Data - 19427

In environmental sciences, a distribution of the mean is often needed for right-skewed data. For example, risk assessments are often based on distributions of the mean to obtain upper confidence limits (UCLs) for analyte concentrations, and, in probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) models, parameters are given distributions rather than deterministic values, and they are usually given distributions of their mean rather than the population distributions to account for the large spatial and temporal domains to which they are applied. How this distribution of the mean is developed depends on the characteristics of the parameter's full distribution and how the parameter relates to its use. In this presentation, I will discuss the implications of a right skew in distribution development. Parameters may vary over orders of magnitude and/or may be right-skewed. The material property of saturated hydraulic conductivity, Ks, is a prime example of such a parameter. Right-skewed parameters are often assumed to follow lognormal distributions. If X follows a lognormal distribution, then log(X) follows a normal distribution. For some right-skewed parameters, practitioners go back and forth between the two forms of the data depending on their needs. For example, it may be preferred to use the untransformed version of X in a model or equation, but it is easier to visualize the parameter values on a logarithmic scale. However, distribution development for the average value of the parameter will differ depending on whether X or log(X) is modeled. This difference is due to Jensen's Inequality, a theorem which states that the expected value of a concave function of a variable is less than or equal to the same function of the expected value of the variable; a logarithm is a concave function. In other words, the mean of log(X) is always less than or equal to the log of the mean of X and therefore the mean estimated from a distribution based on log(X) is less than or equal to the mean estimated from a distribution based on X. If a parameter is naturally considered on a log scale by subject matter experts, then distributions developed for the mean of log(X) may be more consistent with the use of the parameters in the literature than distributions developed for X. The statistical decisions of distribution development will be discussed within the context of right-skewed, lognormal data. These issues include method-of-moments versus maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution parameters and the use of bootstrapping to aid in the visualization of a distribution of the mean. The details surrounding Jensen's Inequality will be explained and visualized within the context of distribution development of a right-skewed parameter such as saturated hydraulic conductivity. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗