Contribution of Modeling Differences to Systematic Errors of the Celestial Reference Frame: Modest/Calc/Gloria
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software differences↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Optical Error Budgeting Using Linearized Ray-Trace Models
The Root-Sum-Squared, or “RSS” wavefront error model is a simple, scalar tool, commonly used for space telescope error budgeting. At the same time, much more detailed models, combining ray-trace and Fourier optics with optical alignments and wavefront controls, can provide accurate, high -resolution simulations for detailed system and subsystem design. This paper makes a connection between the two modeling approaches by deriving RSS model coefficients from ray-trace models, including the effects of wavefront controls, for computing system performance from component error statistics. It is shown that, properly constructed, the simple RSS error budget is a covariance analysis, and can be as accurate as high-resolution wavefront models for statistical wavefront error prediction. A notional segmented-aperture space telescope is used to illustrate this error modeling process.
Wavefront error↗
Effects of vibration on inertial wind-tunnel model attitude measurement devices
Results of an experimental study of a wind tunnel model inertial angle-of-attack sensor response to a simulated dynamic environment are presented. The inertial device cannot distinguish between the gravity vector and the centrifugal accelerations associated with wind tunnel model vibration, this situation results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Significant bias error in model attitude measurement was found for the model system tested. The model attitude bias error was found to be vibration mode and amplitude dependent. A first order correction model was developed and used for estimating attitude measurement bias error due to dynamic motion. A method for correcting the output of the model attitude inertial sensor in the presence of model dynamics during on-line wind tunnel operation is proposed.
Young, Clarence P., Jr.↗
Quantifying the Storm Time Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations Using Model and Observations
Accurate determination of thermospheric neutral density holds crucial importance for satellited rag calculations. The problem is twofold and involves the correct estimation of the quiet time climatology and storm time variations. In this work, neutral density estimations from two empirical and threephysics based models of the ionosphere thermosphere are compared with the neutral densities along the Challenging MicroSatellite Payload satellite track for six geomagnetic storms. Storm time variations are extracted from neutral density by (1) subtracting the mean difference between model and observation (bias),(2) setting climatological variations to zero, and (3) multiplying model data with the quiet time ratio between the model and observation. Several metrics are employed to evaluate the model performances. We find that the removal of bias or climatology reveals actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variations. When bias is removed, depending on event and model, storm time errors in neutral density can decrease by an amount of 113% or can increase by an amount of 12% with respect to error in models with quiet time bias. It is shown that using only average and maximum values of neutral density to determine the model performances can be misleading since a model can estimate the averages fairly well but may not capture the maximum value or vice versa. Since each of the metrics used for determining model performances provides different aspects of the error, among these, we suggest employing mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error together as a standard set ofmetrics for the neutral density.
Eyiguler, E. Ceren Kalafatoglu↗
Solar maximum mission fine pointing sun sensor dawn and dusk errors flight data and model analysis
SMM flight system control errors occurring at spacecraft dawn and dusk are analyzed. The errors are associated with the fine pointing sun sensor (FPSS), which is a primary component of the SMM attitude control system. It is shown that the source of the FPSS dawn/dusk distortion is the incomplete masking of sunlight reflected off the earth by the optical baffle covering the FPSS sensor heads onboard the SMM during periods of orbit dawn and dusk. For the most part, the modeled behavior of the FPSS under dawn and dusk lighting conditions matches the observed behavior in the SMM flight data.
Kulp, D. R.↗
Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modeling, Calibration, and Error Analysis
The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI)/Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) project installed seven pressure ports through the MSL Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield to measure heatshield surface pressures during entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the dynamic pressure, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. This report describes the calibration of the pressure transducers utilized to reconstruct the atmospheric data and associated uncertainty models, pressure modeling and uncertainty analysis, and system performance results. The results indicate that the MEADS pressure measurement system hardware meets the project requirements.
Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗
Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation
A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.
Kalmaz, E. E.↗
Machine Learning Models for GPU Error Prediction in a Large Scale HPC System
GPUs are widely deployed on large-scale HPC systems to provide powerful computational capability for scientific applications from various domains. As those applications are normally long-running, investigating the characteristics of GPU errors becomes imperative for reliability. In this paper, we first study the system conditions that trigger GPU errors using six-month trace data collected from a large-scale, operational HPC system. Then, we use machine learning to predict the occurrence of GPU errors, by taking advantage of temporal and spatial dependencies of the trace data. The resulting machine learning prediction framework is robust and accurate under different workloads.
Nie, Bin↗
Lattice Element Error Solver for Modeling of Accelerators, Storage Ring, Transport Systems, and Insertion Devices
The goals of CRADA 350 were achieved in this Phase I SBIR work. Specifically, a software environment was developed which included a nonlinear solver, OASIS. During the Phase I work, we applied the algorithm to a number of nonlinear-solver benchmark problems, including SLAC accelerator problems. By searching over only two optimization-control parameters, this Phase I work has enabled the development of a systematic procedure to facilitate the finding of a “best-guessed” global minimum solution for various types of non-linear problems with different size and complexity. This set of rules was codified and led to a versatile nonlinear program, IMIGO.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
High-Resolution Regional Wave Hindcast for the U.S. Alaska Coast
Regional long-term wave hindcast with state-of-art third-generation models is essential for characterization of regional wave resources. This report summarizes modeling efforts for the simulation of the wave climate along southern Alaska, which used an unstructured, nested-grid modeling approach that incorporates a global-regional nested grid using WAVEWATCH III ® and the high-resolution SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model. Wave resource and wave bulk parameters were simulated for a 32-year period from 1979 to 2010 and were subsequently validated with wave buoy data in the model domain. Error statistics of model skills were calculated at all buoy stations. Overall, model results, both resource and bulk parameters, match observations well. The model hindcast was able to reproduce the seasonal variation of the sea state with large waves that occur in the winter and early spring months when wind forcing is strong and the calm sea state during the summer when wind forcing is weak. The hindcast also considers the effect of sea ice on wave growth, which affects the southern Bering Sea. The hindcast results, including resource and bulk parameters, were archived at every model grid point for the entire model domain at three-hour intervals. In addition, spectral results were saved at National Data Buoy Center buoy stations and selected virtual buoy locations at hourly intervals. The nested-grid modeling framework employed in this study provides a powerful and efficient modeling approach for accurately simulating wave climate at regional and long-term temporal scales with sufficiently fine resolutions in the nearshore region.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Error-in-variables modelling for operator learning
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Patel, Ravi Ghanshyam↗
Error-in-variables modelling for operator learning benchmarks
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Patel, Ravi Ghanshyam↗
Robust Bayesian Calibration of a k-ε Model for Compressible Jet-in-Crossflow Simulations
Compressible jet-in-crossflow interactions are difficult to simulate accurately using Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models. This could be due to simplifications inherent in RANS or the use of inappropriate RANS constants estimated by fitting to experiments of simple or canonical flows. Our previous work on Bayesian calibration of a k-ε model to experimental data had led to a weak hypothesis that inaccurate simulations could be due to inappropriate constants more than model-form inadequacies of RANS. In this work, Bayesian calibration of k-ε constants to a set of experiments that span a range of Mach numbers and jet strengths has been performed. The variation of the calibrated constants has been checked to assess the degree to which parametric estimates compensate for RANS’s model-form errors. An analytical model of jet-in-crossflow interactions has also been developed, and estimates of k-ε constants that are free of any conflation of parametric and RANS’s model-form uncertainties have been obtained. It has been found that the analytical k-ε constants provide mean-flow predictions that are similar to those provided by the calibrated constants. Further, both of them provide predictions that are far closer to experimental measurements than those computed using “nominal” values of these constants simply obtained from the literature. It can be concluded that the lack of predictive skill of RANS jet-in-crossflow simulations is mostly due to parametric inadequacies, and our analytical estimates may provide a simple way of obtaining predictive compressible jet-in-crossflow simulations.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Error-source effects in a high-accuracy optical finite-element processor
High-accuracy optical linear algebra processors are addressed with attention to three new aspects. These include: their application to the solution of finite-element problems; the first error-source models for component errors in such processors; and the first analysis of error sources in such processors.
Taylor, B. K.↗