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DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Segmented Mixed Effect Regression Model for Baseline Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Renewable energy production has been surging around the world in recent years. To mitigate the increasing uncertainty and intermittency of the renewable generation, proactive demand response algorithms and programs are proposed and developed to further improve the utilization of load flexibility and increase the efficiency of power system operation. One of the biggest challenges to efficient control and operation of demand response resources is how to forecast the baseline electricity consumption and estimate the load impact from demand response resources accurately. In this paper, we propose a mixed effect segmented regression model and a new robust estimate for forecasting the baseline electricity consumption in Southern California, USA, by combining the ideas of random effect regression model, segmented regression model, and the least trimmed squares estimate. Since the log-likelihood of the considered model is not differentiable at breakpoints, we propose a new backfitting algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters. The estimation performance of the new estimation procedure has been demonstrated with both simulation studies and the real data application for the electric load baseline forecasting in Southern California.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2003

Neural Network and Regression Methods Demonstrated in the Design Optimization of a Subsonic Aircraft

The neural network and regression methods of NASA Glenn Research Center s COMETBOARDS design optimization testbed were used to generate approximate analysis and design models for a subsonic aircraft operating at Mach 0.85 cruise speed. The analytical model is defined by nine design variables: wing aspect ratio, engine thrust, wing area, sweep angle, chord-thickness ratio, turbine temperature, pressure ratio, bypass ratio, fan pressure; and eight response parameters: weight, landing velocity, takeoff and landing field lengths, approach thrust, overall efficiency, and compressor pressure and temperature. The variables were adjusted to optimally balance the engines to the airframe. The solution strategy included a sensitivity model and the soft analysis model. Researchers generated the sensitivity model by training the approximators to predict an optimum design. The trained neural network predicted all response variables, within 5-percent error. This was reduced to 1 percent by the regression method. The soft analysis model was developed to replace aircraft analysis as the reanalyzer in design optimization. Soft models have been generated for a neural network method, a regression method, and a hybrid method obtained by combining the approximators. The performance of the models is graphed for aircraft weight versus thrust as well as for wing area and turbine temperature. The regression method followed the analytical solution with little error. The neural network exhibited 5-percent maximum error over all parameters. Performance of the hybrid method was intermediate in comparison to the individual approximators. Error in the response variable is smaller than that shown in the figure because of a distortion scale factor. The overall performance of the approximators was considered to be satisfactory because aircraft analysis with NASA Langley Research Center s FLOPS (Flight Optimization System) code is a synthesis of diverse disciplines: weight estimation, aerodynamic analysis, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data interpolation, mission performance, airfield length for landing and takeoff, noise footprint, and others.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Mechanistic Reliability Assessment of RVACS and Metal Fuel Inherent Reactivity Feedbacks

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) participated in a two year collaboration to modernize and update the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the PRISM sodium fast reactor. At a high level, the primary outcome of the project was the development of a next-generation PRA that is intended to enable risk-informed prioritization of safety- and reliability-focused research and development. A central Argonne task during this project was a reliability assessment of passive safety systems, which included the Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) and the inherent reactivity feedbacks of the metal fuel core. Both systems were examined utilizing a methodology derived from the Reliability Method for Passive Safety Functions (RMPS), with an emphasis on developing success criteria based on mechanistic system modeling while also maintaining consistency with the Fuel Damage Categories (FDCs) of the mechanistic source term assessment. This paper provides an overview of the reliability analyses of both systems, including highlights of the FMEAs, the construction of best-estimate models, uncertain parameter screening and propagation, and the quantification of system failure probability. In particular, special focus is given to the methodologies to perform the analysis of uncertainty propagation and the determination of the likelihood of violating FDC limits. Additionally, important lessons learned are also reviewed, such as optimal sampling methodologies for the discovery of low likelihood failure events and strategies for the combined treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.

Grabaskas, David↗

DOE OSTI2025

Linear and Nonlinear X-ray Spectra of Chiral Molecules: X-ray Circular Dichroism, Sum- and Difference-Frequency Generation of Fenchone and Cysteine

Recent advancements in X-ray light sources enable element-sensitive nonlinear spectroscopies for probing molecular chirality. We simulate X-ray absorption spectroscopy, X-ray circular dichroism (XCD), and nonlinear optical/X-ray SFG and DFG (OX SFG/DFG) signals for two prototypical chiral molecules, fenchone and cysteine. Furthermore, our multireference simulations reproduce experimental data and reveal how novel X-ray spectroscopies exploit the site- and element-sensitivity of X-rays to uncover molecular asymmetry. The XCD spectra show strong asymmetries at chiral centers, while distant atoms contribute weaker signals. The OX SFG/DFG signals, under fixed resonant optical excitation, strongly depend on the core and valence excitations. This allows us to introduce two-dimensional (2D) chirality-sensitive valence-core spectroscopy, which provides insight into the overlap between valence orbitals and local molecular asymmetry. Finally, our estimates using realistic laser and X-ray pulse parameters demonstrate that such nonlinear experiments are feasible at XFELs, offering a promising tool for investigating chiral molecules.

Circular dichroism spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Momentum transfer and plasma rotation caused by destabilized eigenmodes in tokamaks

In this work, the influence of magnetohydrodynamic eigenmodes destabilized by energetic ions on the momentum of these ions and concomitant sheared plasma rotation are studied. Two mechanisms affecting rotation are revealed: (i) spatial channelling (SC) – radially separated emission and absorption of the momentum; (ii) mode induced redistribution (MIR) across the magnetic field of the momentum of energetic ions. Forces arising during SC and MIR produce both toroidal and poloidal rotations. In addition, the momentum emission during SC leads to a radial flux of fast ions and generation of a radial electric field. Using the developed theory, estimates were made for the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) 15 MA baseline scenario. They show that a global toroidicity-induced Alfvén eigenmode destabilized by alpha particles and neutral beam injection can result in significant radial electric field and forces applied to plasma. However, available data are not sufficient for a reliable prediction of the effects of SC and MIR in ITER. In general, one can expect that sheared rotation arising after destabilization of Alfvén modes and fast magnetoacoustic modes by energetic ions will tend to suppress the turbulence and improve plasma performance. The importance of plasma rotation is supported, in particular, by the fact that during the JET DTE1 experimental campaign the best parameters were achieved in a deuterium–tritium discharge where the rotation frequency was largest.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supernova electron-neutrino interactions with xenon in the nEXO detector

Electron-neutrino charged-current interactions with xenon nuclei were modeled in the nEXO neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay detector (∼5 metric ton, 90% 136 Xe, 10% 134 Xe) to evaluate its sensitivity to supernova neutrinos. Predictions for event rates and detectable signatures were modeled using the Model of Argon Reaction Low Energy Yields (MARLEY) event generator. We find good agreement between MARLEY’s predictions and existing theoretical calculations of the inclusive cross sections at supernova neutrino energies. The interactions modeled by MARLEY were simulated within the nEXO simulation framework and were run through an example reconstruction algorithm to determine the detector’s efficiency for reconstructing these events. The simulated data, incorporating the detector response, were used to study the ability of nEXO to reconstruct the incident electron-neutrino spectrum and these results were extended to a larger xenon detector of the same isotope enrichment. We estimate that nEXO will be able to observe electron-neutrino interactions with xenon from supernovae as far as 5–8 kpc from Earth, while the ability to reconstruct incident electron-neutrino spectrum parameters from observed interactions in nEXO is limited to closer supernovae.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force

The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well–known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential influences of Earth’s Coriolis force on shear–wave polarization measurements by conducting 3D numerical simulations for elastic waves generated by earthquake and explosive sources in a radially symmetric, and 3D mantle and crustal models. The Coriolis force can produce polarization anomalies of mantle shear waves up to 7° and core phases, such as SKS and SKKS, up to 4°. Uncorrected shear–wave polarizations due to the Coriolis force can cause an additional source of error (5°–10° in fast direction, and 0.2–0.3 s delay time depending on the method and seismic phase), inaccurate interpretation of station misalignments, and imprecise estimates of the core–mantle boundary topography. We show how to correct for the Coriolis force on teleseismic shear waves using 1D ray tracing for well–isolated phases. Here, we recommend the use of full waveform simulations to accurately account for earthquake sources parameters, poorly isolated phases that could include interfering phase arrivals within the measurement time window, and the effect of the Coriolis force on the polarizations of shear waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dependence of Mass–Dimensional Relationships on Median Mass Diameter

Retrievals of ice cloud properties require accurate estimates of ice particle mass. Empirical mass–dimensional ( m – D ) relationships in the form m = a D b are widely used and usually universally applied across the complete range of particle sizes. For the first time, the dependence of a and b coefficients in m–D relationships on median mass diameter ( D mm ) is studied. Using combined cloud microphysical data collected during the Olympic Mountains Experiment and coincident observations from Airborne Precipitation Radar Third Generation, D mm -dependent ( a , b ) coefficients are derived and represented as surfaces of equally plausible solutions determined by some tolerance in the chi-squared difference χ 2 that minimizes the difference between observed and retrieved radar reflectivity. Robust dependences of a and b on D mm are shown with both parameters significantly decreasing with D mm , leading to smaller effective densities for larger D mm ranges. A universally applied constant m–D relationship overestimates the mass of large aggregates when D mm is between 3–6 mm and temperatures are between −15–0 °C. Multiple m–D relations should be applied for different D mm ranges in retrievals and simulations to account for the variability of particle sizes that are responsible for the mass and thus for the variability of particle shapes and densities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Employing Sensitivity Derivatives to Estimate Uncertainty Propagation in CFD

Two methods that exploit the availability of sensitivity derivatives are successfully employed to predict uncertainty propagation through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code for an inviscid airfoil problem. An approximate statistical second-moment method and a Sensitivity Derivative Enhanced Monte Carlo (SDEMC) method are successfully demonstrated on a two-dimensional problem. First- and second-order sensitivity derivatives of code output with respect to code input are obtained through an efficient incremental iterative approach. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed flow parameters (input variables); these sensitivity derivatives enable one to formulate first- and second-order Taylor Series approximations for the mean and variance of CFD output quantities. Additionally, incorporation of the first-order sensitivity derivatives into the data reduction phase of a conventional Monte Carlo (MC) simulation allows for improved accuracy in determining the first moment of the CFD output. Both methods are compared to results generated using a conventional MC method. The methods that exploit the availability of sensitivity derivatives are found to be valid when considering small deviations from input mean values.

Putko, Michele M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2019

Undulator Radiation Generated by a Single Electron

The facilities providing single electron beams are currently being commissioned at Fermilab and will be at SLAC. Recently, Fermilab’s IOTA ring routinely demonstrated circulation of a single electron at 100 MeV beam energy. Alternatively, SLAC is working on constructing LCLS-II an X-ray FEL driven by a 4 GeV SRF linac. A parasitic beamline, S30XL, is planned that will extract 4 GeV dark current from between the primary LCLS-II electron bunches. The dark current will be delivered to End Station A and can work independently of LCLS-II experiments. The dark current will be bunched at a frequency of 46 MHz while extracted current varied from single electrons to 10’s of nA. In the present paper, we estimate the feasibility of propagating single electron beams through a conventional undulator, placed in the IOTA and S30XL beamlines. We explore the possible observable effects and experimental parameters range. In addition, we focus on potential applications of such beams in systems for high fidelity quantum measurements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM: Open Wellbore Component (V.2.0)

The Open Wellbore component of NRAP-Open-IAM is applicable to the calculation of Area of Review at a carbon storage site and fast estimation of dense gas dispersion from multiple continuous CO 2 surface leakage sources for risk assessment. The Open Wellbore Component of NRAP-Open-IAM is a lookup table model based on the drift-flux approach. The National Research Assessment Partnership’s second-generation integrated assessment model, NRAP-Open-IAM, is open-source software written in Python for use in performance and quantitative risk assessment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems. The look-up table for open well leakage is an updated version the previous model which provides finer resolution of reservoir depth and more accurate fluid properties than the previous open well look-up table, especially in calculating the gas (CO 2 -rich) phase properties. The component model input parameters include the reservoir transmissivity, aquifer transmissivity, brine salinity, well radius, and well top and bottom depths. The reservoir transmissivity and brine salinity were set to values consistent with the reservoir component, and the well top and bottom depths varied with location. The possible outputs from the Open Wellbore component are leakage rates of CO 2 and brine to either an aquifer or atmosphere, depending on the depth of the well top. Several python test scripts are presented that demonstrate that the Open Wellbore component works correctly. Use of the open wellbore model in NRAP-Open-IAM may result in a large CO 2 leakage rates, comparable to the leakage rates of CO 2 blow out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Interferometer applications of VHF radars, part 3.6A

Using a spaced antenna setup of a VHF radar, the spatial distribution of amplitudes and phases of the radar echoes from the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere can be measured. Combining in a suitable analysis procedure the complex digital samples from the different receiving antennas is consistent with the radar interferometer method. In addition to the well-known parameters measured with the commonly applied Doppler and drifts methods, i.e., reflectivity and mean fluctuation velocity, the interferometer technique allows to measure the regular spectrum of the returns. This technique, which was first applied with the spaced antenna system of the SOUSY-VHF-Radar in W. Germany, as well as some first examples of results are described here. These comprise the measurements of the horizontal and vertical velocities of the mean flow as well as of turbulence structures, the aspect sensitivity and the tilt of layers from which the baroclinicity can be estimated. Particularly, results of interferometer measurements of the vertical and horizontal phase velocities and wavelengths of gravity waves in the stratosphere are displayed. The latter results are also discussed in terms of the generation and propagation of these waves.

Rottger, J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error sourceâ€”global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗

NASA NTRS2021

Indirect Dark Matter Searches at Ultrahigh Energy Neutrino Detectors

High to ultrahigh energy neutrino detectors can uniquely probe the properties of dark matterχby searching for the secondary products produced through annihilation and/or decay processes. We evaluate the sensitivities to dark matter thermally averaged annihilation cross section〈σv〉and partial decay width into neutrinos Γ χ→ν ̄ν (in the mass scale 10 7 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 15 ) for next generation observatories like POEMMA and GRAND. We show that in the range 10 7 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 11 , space-based Cherenkov detectors like POEMMA have the advantage of full-sky coverage and rapid slewing, enabling an optimized dark matter observation strategy focusing on the Galactic center. We also show that ground-based radio detectors such as GRAND can achieve high sensitivities and high duty cycles in radio quiet areas. We compare the sensitivities of next generation neutrino experiments with existing constraints from IceCube and updated 90% C.L. upper limits on〈σv〉and Γ χ→ν ̄ν using results from the Pierre Auger Collaboration and ANITA. We show that in the range 10 7 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 11 POEMMA and GRAND10k will improve the neutrino sensitivity to particle dark matter by factors of 2 to 10 over existing limits, whereas GRAND200k will improve this sensitivity by two orders of magnitude. In the range 10 11 ≤ m χ /GeV ≤ 10 15 , POEMMA’s fluorescence observation mode will achieve an unprecedented sensitivity to dark matter properties. Finally, we highlight the importance of the uncertainties related to the dark matter distribution in the Galactic halo, using the latest fit and estimates of the Galactic parameters.

Particle astrophysics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optimal Communication Topology Construction and Sensor Selection for Independent Airspace Surveillance

The paper presents an approach with no estimation feedback to sensors selection and communication network topology computation for independent airspace surveillance with maximum outcome and minimum cost using ground based distributed sensing, computing and communication network infrastructure. The selection criteria includes maximum airspace coverage with minimal resources, minimum communication time and power consumption while guaranteeing the system observability and providing in-time high quality information to both stationary and mobile users. The developed algorithms use multi-objective optimization strategy taking into account trade-offs between conflicting objectives and are implemented using off-the-shelf computational tools. The algorithms are validated in a desktop simulation environment using synthetic sensors data generated for a simulated multi-vehicle flight scenario in the selected regional airspace and parameters of a notional wireless communication network.

Distributed sensing↗

NASA NTRS1975

Optimum exhaust velocity for laser-driven rockets

The laser-driven rocket in which remotely generated laser power is used to heat propellant belongs basically to the class of specific-impulse limited propulsion systems if difficult missions are considered. It was previously established that trip time reaches a minimum as specific impulse is varied for payload transfers from low earth orbit to synchronous orbit and return via laser-driven rocket propulsion, the computations being based on the perigee-propulsion laser drive described by Minovitch (1972). The present study shows that such minimum occur for all missions and that optimum specific impulse is primarily determined by the mission difficulty. More generally, this optimum specific impulse maximizes payload kinetic energy achievable with a fixed jet power and propulsion time. A formula relating propulsion time parameter to payload ratio is obtained for estimating mission capabilities of laser-driven rockets.

Moeckel, W. E.↗