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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized framework for likelihood-based field-level inference of growth rate from velocity and density fields

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures ( f ) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of peculiar velocities of galaxies have attracted interest as a means of estimating fσ 8 . In particular, field-level methods can be used to fit the field nuisance parameter along with cosmological parameters simultaneously. This article aims to provide the community with a unified framework for the theoretical modeling of the likelihood-based field-level inference by performing fast field covariance calculations for velocity and density fields. Our purpose is to lay the foundations for a nonlinear extension of the likelihood-based method at the field level. We have developed a generalized framework, implemented in the dedicated software flip to perform a likelihood-based inference of fσ 8 . We derived a new field covariance model, which includes wide-angle corrections. We also included the models previously described in the literature inside our framework. We compared their performance against ours, and we validated our model by comparing it with the two-point statistics of a recent N-body simulation. The tests we performed have allowed us to validate our software and determine the appropriate wavenumber range to integrate our covariance model and its validity in terms of separation. Our framework allows for a wider wavenumber coverage to be used in our calculations than in previous works, which is particularly interesting for nonlinear model extensions. Finally, our generalized framework allows us to efficiently perform a survey geometry-dependent Fisher forecast of the fσ 8 parameter. We show that the Fisher forecast method we developed gives an error bar that is 30% closer to a full likelihood-based estimation than a standard volume Fisher forecast.

Ravoux, Corentin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of process steady state with autoregressive models and Bayesian inference

To improve efficiency, separations engineers will typically design process circuits containing recirculating streams, which mix one or more of the process outputs with the feed material. Doing so can improve efficiency, but will cause a delay in the system reaching steady state conditions until the recirculating load mass flows stabilize. In testing separation circuits, engineers will often test a variety of factors and complete an analysis from sample results. Knowledge of if a process is at steady state, as well as the steady state conditions of a process, is essential for a valid techno-economic analysis. However, the definition of process steady state is often poorly defined, or does not include uncertainty quantification. If the performance of a process operating under two different sets of conditions are compared, an engineer who does not test for steady state or quantify steady state conditions risks producing a faulty analysis. In this work, a Bayesian statistical method for testing if all streams are at steady state is further motivated and then derived. Then after testing for steady state, the same model is used with a prior distribution that enforces a steady state assumption to estimate steady state conditions. Further, these methods were validated in a solvent extraction pilot plant where steady state conditions for all outflows were inferred with uncertainty quantification. Analysis is completed with functions available to the reader as part of the BayesMassBal (V 1.1.0) software package written in R.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2016

Final Report, DOE Early Career Award: Predictive modeling of complex physical systems: new tools for statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design

Predictive simulation of complex physical systems increasingly rests on the interplay of experimental observations with computational models. Key inputs, parameters, or structural aspects of models may be incomplete or unknown, and must be developed from indirect and limited observations. At the same time, quantified uncertainties are needed to qualify computational predictions in the support of design and decision-making. In this context, Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and limited data, but at prohibitive computional expense. This project intends to make rigorous predictive modeling *feasible* in complex physical systems, via accelerated and scalable tools for uncertainty quantification, Bayesian inference, and experimental design. Specific objectives are as follows: 1. Develop adaptive posterior approximations and dimensionality reduction approaches for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional nonlinear systems. 2. Extend accelerated Bayesian methodologies to large-scale {\em sequential} data assimilation, fully treating nonlinear models and non-Gaussian state and parameter distributions. 3. Devise efficient surrogate-based methods for Bayesian model selection and the learning of model structure. 4. Develop scalable simulation/optimization approaches to nonlinear Bayesian experimental design, for both parameter inference and model selection. 5. Demonstrate these inferential tools on chemical kinetic models in reacting flow, constructing and refining thermochemical and electrochemical models from limited data. Demonstrate Bayesian filtering on canonical stochastic PDEs and in the dynamic estimation of inhomogeneous subsurface properties and flow fields.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scaling and merging time-resolved pink-beam diffraction with variational inference

Time-resolved x-ray crystallography (TR-X) at synchrotrons and free electron lasers is a promising technique for recording dynamics of molecules at atomic resolution. While experimental methods for TR-X have proliferated and matured, data analysis is often difficult. Extracting small, time-dependent changes in signal is frequently a bottleneck for practitioners. Recent work demonstrated this challenge can be addressed when merging redundant observations by a statistical technique known as variational inference (VI). However, the variational approach to time-resolved data analysis requires identification of successful hyperparameters in order to optimally extract signal. In this case study, we present a successful application of VI to time-resolved changes in an enzyme, DJ-1, upon mixing with a substrate molecule, methylglyoxal. We present a strategy to extract high signal-to-noise changes in electron density from these data. Furthermore, we conduct an ablation study, in which we systematically remove one hyperparameter at a time to demonstrate the impact of each hyperparameter choice on the success of our model. We expect this case study will serve as a practical example for how others may deploy VI in order to analyze their time-resolved diffraction data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on the Cosmic Expansion History from GWTC–3

We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H(z), including its current value, the Hubble constant H0. Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H(z). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M ⊙ , followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H(z) measurement, yielding H 0 = $68$$^{+12}_{–8}$km s –1 Mpc –1 (68% credible interval) when combined with the H 0 measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H 0 estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event's potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of H 0 = $68$$^{+8}_{–6}$km s –1 Mpc –1 with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H 0 studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H 0 ) is the well-localized event GW190814.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning-Accelerated ADMM for Distributed DC Optimal Power Flow

We propose a novel data-driven method to accelerate the convergence of Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) for solving distributed DC optimal power flow (DC-OPF) where lines are shared between independent network partitions. Using previous observations of ADMM trajectories for a given system under varying load, the method trains a recurrent neural network (RNN) to predict the converged values of dual and consensus variables. Given a new realization of system load, a small number of initial ADMM iterations is taken as input to infer the converged values and directly inject them into the iteration. We empirically demonstrate that the online injection of these values into the ADMM iteration accelerates convergence by a significant factor for partitioned 14-, 118- and 2848-bus test systems under differing load scenarios. The proposed method has several advantages: it maintains the security of private decision variables inherent in consensus ADMM; inference is fast and so may be used in online settings; RNN-generated predictions can dramatically improve time to convergence but, by construction, can never result in infeasible ADMM subproblems; it can be easily integrated into existing software implementations. While we focus on the ADMM formulation of distributed DC-OPF in this paper, the ideas presented are naturally extended to other distributed optimization problems.

alternating direction method of multipliers↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning-Accelerated ADMM for Distributed DC Optimal Power Flow

We suggest a novel data-driven method to accelerate the convergence of Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) for solving distributed DC optimal power flow (DC-OPF) where lines are shared between independent network partitions. Using previous observations of ADMM trajectories for a given system under varying load, the method trains a recurrent neural network (RNN) to predict the converged values of dual and consensus variables. Given a new realization of system load, a small number of initial ADMM iterations is taken as input to infer the converged values and directly inject them into the iteration. We empirically demonstrate that the online injection of these values into the ADMM iteration accelerates convergence by a significant factor for partitioned 14-, 118-and 2848-bus test systems under differing load scenarios. The proposed method has several advantages: it maintains the security of private decision variables inherent in consensus ADMM; inference is fast and so may be used in online settings; RNN-generated predictions can dramatically improve time to convergence but, by construction, can never result in infeasible ADMM subproblems; it can be easily integrated into existing software implementations. While we focus on the ADMM formulation of distributed DC-OPF in this paper, the ideas presented are naturally extended to other distributed optimization problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for Explainable Artificial Intelligence

We explored ways of quantifying information in a neural network. This can be used to determine the right size of a network or to infer the way in which a network is processing information. The first year and a half was somewhat exploratory while the last half of the project focused on approaches that seemed to show the most promise. The introduce a new way of computing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) saliency maps that is several orders of magnitude faster than methods with similar fidelity We call it FastCAM. The method works be combining a Class Activation Map (CAM) method such as GradCAM with a forward activation map computed with a statistic we call SMOE Scale. The addition of the forward activation maps to CAM methods seems to always improve their fidelity. At the same time, computational overhead is not increased by very much. While Gradients with SmoothGrad scores better on some fidelity measures, it is overall not as good and requires more than 1500 times to compute. We demonstrate two completed applications of FastCAM on tasks outside of the LDRD at LLNL. The source code for FastCAM is currently being implanted into Captum, the official XAI toolkit for the popular deep learning toolkit PyTorch. The LDRD currently has 13 publications released to the public. 10 of them are journal length.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

On comparing helioseismic two-dimensional inversion methods

We consider inversion techniques for investigating the structure and dynamics of the solar interior as functions of radius and latitude. In particular, we look at the problem of inferring the radial and latitudinal dependence of the Sun's internal rotation, using a fully two-dimensional least-squares inversion algorithm. Concepts such as averaging kernels, measures of resolution, and trade-off curves, which have previously been used in the one-dimensional case, are generalized to facilitate a comparison of two-dimensional methods. We investigate the weighting given to different modes and discuss the implications of this for observational strategies. As an illustration we use a mode set whose properties are similar to those expected for data from the GONG network.

Schou, J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbial maintenance energy quantified and modeled with microcalorimetry

Refining the energetic costs of cellular maintenance is essential for predicting microbial growth and survival in the environment. In this work, we evaluate a simple batch culture method to quantify energy partitioning between growth and maintenance using microcalorimetry and thermodynamic modeling. The constants derived from the batch culture system were comparable to those that have been reported from meta-analyses of data derived from chemostat studies. The model accurately predicted temperature-dependent biomass yield and the upper temperature limit of growth for Desulfovibrio alaskensis G20, suggesting the method may have broad application. An Arrhenius temperature dependence for the specific energy consumption rate, inferred from substrate consumption and heat evolution, was observed over the entire viable temperature range. By combining this relationship for specific energy consumption rates and observed specific growth rates, the model describes an increase in nongrowth associated maintenance at higher temperatures and the corresponding decrease in energy available for growth. This analytical and thermodynamic formulation suggests that simply monitoring heat evolution in batch culture could be a useful complement to the recognized limitations of estimating maintenance using extrapolation to zero growth in chemostats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Noise-specific beating in the higher-level Ramsey curves of a transmon qubit

We report: in the higher levels of superconducting transmon devices and more generally charge sensitive devices, T 2 * measurements made in the presence of low-frequency time-correlated 1/f charge noise and quasiparticle-induced parity flips can give an underestimation of the total dephasing time. The charge variations manifest as beating patterns observed in the overlay of several Ramsey fringe curves and are reproduced with a phenomenological Ramsey curve model, which accounts for the charge variations. T 2 * dephasing times, which more accurately represent the total dephasing time, are obtained. The phenomenological model is compared with a Lindblad master equation model. Both models are found to be in agreement with one another and the experimental data. Finally, the phenomenological formulation enables a simple method in which the power spectral density for the low-frequency noise can be inferred from the overlay of several Ramsey curves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

In silico λ-dynamics predicts protein binding specificities to modified RNAs

Abstract RNA modifications shape gene expression through a variety of chemical changes to canonical RNA bases. Although numbering in the hundreds, only a few RNA modifications are well characterized, in part due to the absence of methods to identify modification sites. Antibodies remain a common tool to identify modified RNA and infer modification sites through straightforward applications. However, specificity issues can result in off-target binding and confound conclusions. This work utilizes in silico λ-dynamics to efficiently estimate binding free energy differences of modification-targeting antibodies between a variety of naturally occurring RNA modifications. Crystal structures of inosine and N6-methyladenosine (m6A) targeting antibodies bound to their modified ribonucleosides were determined and served as structural starting points. λ-Dynamics was utilized to predict RNA modifications that permit or inhibit binding to these antibodies. In vitro RNA-antibody binding assays supported the accuracy of these in silico results. High agreement between experimental and computed binding propensities demonstrated that λ-dynamics can serve as a predictive screen for antibody specificity against libraries of RNA modifications. More importantly, this strategy is an innovative way to elucidate how hundreds of known RNA modifications interact with biological molecules without the limitations imposed by in vitro or in vivo methodologies.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2019

Accelerating parameter inference with graphics processing units

Gravitational wave Bayesian parameter inference involves repeated comparisons of GW data to generic candidate predictions. Even with algorithmically efficient methods like RIFT or reduced-order quadrature, the time needed to perform these calculations and overall computational cost can be significant compared to the minutes to hours needed to achieve the goals of low-latency multimessenger astronomy. By translating some elements of the RIFT algorithm to operate on graphics processing units (GPU), we demonstrate substantial performance improvements, enabling dramatically reduced overall cost and latency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

PacBio high‐throughput multi‐locus sequencing reveals high genetic diversity in mushroom‐forming fungi

Abstract Multi‐locus sequence data are widely used in fungal systematic and taxonomic studies to delimit species and infer evolutionary relationships. We developed and assessed the efficacy of a multi‐locus pooled sequencing method using PacBio long‐read high‐throughput sequencing. Samples included fresh and dried voucher specimens, cultures and archival DNA extracts of Agaricomycetes with an emphasis on the order Cantharellales. Of the 283 specimens sequenced, 93.6% successfully amplified at one or more loci with a mean of 3.3 loci amplified. Our method recovered multiple sequence variants representing alleles of rDNA loci and single copy protein‐coding genesrpb1,rpb2 andtef1. Within‐sample genetic variation differed by locus and taxonomic group, with the greatest genetic divergence observed among sequence variants ofrpb2 andtef1 from corticioid Cantharellales. Our method is a cost‐effective approach for generating accurate multi‐locus sequence data coupled with recovery of alleles from polymorphic samples and multi‐organism specimens. These results have important implications for understanding intra‐individual genomic variation among genetic loci commonly used in species delimitation of fungi.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hidden Allies: Decoding the Core Endohyphal Bacteriome of Aspergillus fumigatus

ABSTRACT Bacterial–fungal interactions that influence the behaviour of one or both organisms are common in nature. Well‐studied systems include endosymbiotic relationships that range from transient to long‐term associations. Diverse endohyphal bacteria associate with fungal hosts, emphasising the need to better comprehend the fungal bacteriome. We evaluated the hypothesis thatAspergillus fumigatusharbours an endohyphal community of bacteria that influence the host phenotype. We analysed whether 38A. fumigatusstrains show stable association with diverse endohyphal bacteria; all derived from single‐conidium cultures that were subjected to antibiotic and heat treatments. The fungal bacteriome, inferred through analysis of bacterial diversity within the fungal strains (short‐ and long‐ read sequencing methods), revealed the presence of core endohyphal bacterial genera. Microscopic analysis further confirmed the presence of endohyphal bacteria. The fungal strains exhibited high genetic diversity and phenotypic heterogeneity in drug susceptibility and in vivo virulence. No correlations were observed between genomic or functional traits and bacteriome diversity, but the abundance of some bacterial genera correlated with fungal virulence or posaconazole susceptibility. The observed endobacteriome may play functional roles, for example, nitrogen fixation. Our study emphasises the existence of complex interactions between fungi and endohyphal bacteria, possibly impacting the phenotype of the fungal host, including virulence.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2017

Gauging Variational Inference

Computing partition function is the most important statistical inference task arising in applications of Graphical Models (GM). Since it is computationally intractable, approximate methods have been used to resolve the issue in practice, where meanfield (MF) and belief propagation (BP) are arguably the most popular and successful approaches of a variational type. In this paper, we propose two new variational schemes, coined Gauged-MF (G-MF) and Gauged-BP (G-BP), improving MF and BP, respectively. Both provide lower bounds for the partition function by utilizing the so-called gauge transformation which modifies factors of GM while keeping the partition function invariant. Moreover, we prove that both G-MF and G-BP are exact for GMs with a single loop of a special structure, even though the bare MF and BP perform badly in this case. Our extensive experiments, on complete GMs of relatively small size and on large GM (up-to 300 variables) confirm that the newly proposed algorithms outperform and generalize MF and BP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗