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DOE OSTI2025

Hyperplane decision trees as piecewise linear surrogate models for chemical process design

Recent trends in chemical engineering research point towards an increasing reliance on data-driven modeling approaches. Neural networks, for instance, have proven to be accurate when data is plentiful and high-dimensional, but in many cases, they require computationally-intensive training procedures. Here, in this work, we describe hyperplane decision trees (HT) as a highly expressive and low-compute machine learning model architecture. These models are locally linear and have linear decision boundaries, resulting in a piecewise linear model of the data. This property allows them to be converted into mixed-integer linear constraints which can be globally optimized. Our open-source PyTorch implementation of this method is a fast, flexible, and accessible way to build accurate piecewise linear models of data.

Decision trees↗

DOE OSTI2018

Preliminary Results on Applying Nonparametric Clustering and Bayesian Consensus Clustering Methods to Multimodal Data

In this report, we present preliminary research into nonparametric clustering methods for multi-source imagery data and quantifying the performance of these models. In many domain areas, data sets do not necessarily follow well-defined and well-known probability distributions, such as the normal, gamma, and exponential. This is especially true when combining data from multiple sources describing a common set of objects (which we call multimodal analysis), where the data in each source can follow different distributions and need to be analyzed in conjunction with one another. This necessitates nonparametric density estimation methods, which allow the data to better dictate the distribution of the data. One prominent example of multimodal analysis is multimodal image analysis, when we analyze multiple images taken using different radar systems of the same scene of interest. We develop uncertainty analysis methods, which are inherent in the use of probabilistic models but often not taken advance of, to assess the performance of probabilistic clustering methods used for analyzing multimodal images. This added information helps assess model performance and how much trust decision-makers should have in the obtained analysis results. The developed methods illustrate some ways in which uncertainty can inform decisions that arise when designing and using machine learning models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2019

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Air Quality Forecasting Using Machine Learning

Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool to study the impact of chemical constituents on the environment, vegetation and human health. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a chemistry model.We have investigated a machine learning approach to emulate the chemistry instead of solving the differential equations numerically. From a one-month simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry.This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, etc. We discuss speed and accuracy of our approach, and highlight some potential future directions for improving it.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A first-principles machine-learning force field for heterogeneous ice nucleation on microcline feldspar

The formation of ice in the atmosphere affects precipitation and cloud properties, and plays a key role in the climate of our planet. Although ice can form directly from liquid water at deeply supercooled conditions, the presence of foreign particles can aid ice formation at much warmer temperatures. Over the past decade, experiments have highlighted the remarkable efficiency of feldspar minerals as ice nuclei compared to other particles present in the atmosphere. However, the exact mechanism of ice formation on feldspar surfaces has yet to be fully understood. Here, we develop a first-principles machine-learning model for the potential energy surface aimed at studying ice nucleation at microcline feldspar surfaces. The model is able to reproduce with high-fidelity the energies and forces derived from density-functional theory (DFT) based on the SCAN exchange and correlation functional. Our training set includes configurations of bulk supercooled water, hexagonal and cubic ice, microcline, and fully-hydroxylated feldspar surfaces exposed to vacuum, liquid water, and ice. In this work, we apply the machine-learning force field to study different fully-hydroxylated terminations of the (100), (010), and (001) surfaces of microcline exposed to vacuum. Our calculations suggest that terminations that do not minimize the number of broken bonds are preferred in vacuum. We also study the structure of supercooled liquid water in contact with microcline surfaces, and find that water density correlations extend up to around 10 Å from the surfaces. Finally, we show that the force field maintains a high accuracy during the simulation of ice formation at microcline surfaces, even for large systems of around 30,000 atoms. Future work will be directed towards the calculation of nucleation free energy barriers and rates using the force field developed herein, and understanding the role of different microcline surfaces on ice nucleation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic System Health-State Architecture for Data-Driven Failure Detection

The timely detection of photovoltaic (PV) system failures is important for maintaining optimal performance and lifetime reliability. A main challenge remains the lack of a unified health-state architecture for the uninterrupted monitoring and predictive performance of PV systems. To this end, existing failure detection models are strongly dependent on the availability and quality of site-specific historic data. The scope of this work is to address these fundamental challenges by presenting a health-state architecture for advanced PV system monitoring. The proposed architecture comprises of a machine learning model for PV performance modeling and accurate failure diagnosis. The predictive model is optimally trained on low amounts of on-site data using minimal features and coupled to functional routines for data quality verification, whereas the classifier is trained under an enhanced supervised learning regime. The results demonstrated high accuracies for the implemented predictive model, exhibiting normalized root mean square errors lower than 3.40% even when trained with low data shares. The classification results provided evidence that fault conditions can be detected with a sensitivity of 83.91% for synthetic power-loss events (power reduction of 5%) and of 97.99% for field-emulated failures in the test-bench PV system. Finally, this work provides insights on how to construct an accurate PV system with predictive and classification models for the timely detection of faults and uninterrupted monitoring of PV systems, regardless of historic data availability and quality. Such guidelines and insights on the development of accurate health-state architectures for PV plants can have positive implications in operation and maintenance and monitoring strategies, thus improving the system’s performance.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Time-Resolved Line Shapes of Single Quantum Emitters via Machine Learned Photon Correlations

Solid-state single-photon emitters (SPEs) are quantum light sources that combine atomlike optical properties with solid-state integration and fabrication capabilities. SPEs are hindered by spectral diffusion, where the emitter’s surrounding environment induces random energy fluctuations. Timescales of spectral diffusion span nanoseconds to minutes and require probing single emitters to remove ensemble averaging. Photon correlation Fourier spectroscopy (PCFS) can be used to measure time-resolved single emitter line shapes, but is hindered by poor signal-to-noise ratio in the measured correlation functions at early times due to low photon counts. Here, we develop a framework to simulate PCFS correlation functions directly from diffusing spectra that match well with experimental data for single colloidal quantum dots. We use these simulated datasets to train a deep ensemble autoencoder machine learning model that outputs accurate, noiseless, and probabilistic reconstructions of the noisy correlations. Using this model, we obtain reconstructed time-resolved single dot emission line shapes at timescales as low as 10 ns, which are otherwise completely obscured by noise. This enables PCFS to extract optical coherence times on the same timescales as Hong-Ou-Mandel two-photon interference, but with the advantage of providing spectral information in addition to estimates of photon indistinguishability. Further, our machine learning approach is broadly applicable to different photon correlation spectroscopy techniques and SPE systems, offering an enhanced tool for probing single emitter line shapes on previously inaccessible timescales.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Geophysical Observations Toolkit For Evaluating Coral Health (GOTECH) Fall 2021 Final Report

The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) Data Science Team (DST), under the Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO), is investigating the capacity of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite to infer the vitality of coral reefs. This report describes the Fall 2021 period of performance for the Geophysical Observations Toolkit for Evaluating Coral Health (GOTECH) project. During this effort, two student teams at Georgia Tech developed machine-learning models to predict the vitality of coral reefs in targeted geographic regions based on backscatter data from the CALIPSO satellite. To train these models, students fused data to form a common operating picture of how coral reefs have grown and decayed worldwide. This report describes the student assignment, background, and results of the semester's research.

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of Automated Pipeline for Time-Resolved Link-Wise Vehicular Energy Consumption in the Chattanooga, TN Road Network

The Department of Energy (DOE) has shown strong interest in detecting energy inefficiencies in regional road networks, so as to derive energy consumed at a high spatial temporal resolution. We have developed a workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicular energy consumption over each link in a road network of interest. The road network used in the current work is centered around the city of Chattanooga, Tennessee and its bordering regions. Utilizing the most mature road network for the Chattanooga, TN region, vehicle speed & count data from TomTom in conjunction with machine learning methods, we have developed an automated pipeline to estimate energy consumption for every link in the network. The first step in the pipeline is ingesting vehicle probe counts and speed estimates from TomTom API. In the next step, the probe counts, speed profiles and other exogenous data (i.e. road types, weather data, ground-truth volume counts and more) were used as input to a supervised learning algorithm to estimate the number of vehicles throughout the entire region for each road segment. These volume estimates were then mapped to a unified road network that contained additional important information such as percentage change in gradient across a link, number of lanes and link lengths that are features in pre-trained single vehicle energy-consumption models available with the RouteE software developed at NREL. The per vehicle energy consumption on each road link predicted using appropriate RouteE vehicular models were multiplied by the volume estimate for the corresponding link over a given time period to predict energy consumed per link for the time interval of interest. Currently, work is underway to improve both the RouteE per vehicle energy estimate and the volume estimates derived from TomTom probe counts. We have also explored the correlation of the link-wise energy estimates with the features of the pre-trained RouteE machine learning model in order to gain insight into what factors contribute most to the link-wise energy consumption.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Vertical Motor-driven Pump for Simulation of a Fault Signature \\ for Condition Monitoring

As part of the ongoing effort to transition from preventive maintenance strategies to condition-based maintenance strategies in nuclear power plants, there is significant reliance on using machine learning techniques. To develop a robust machine learning model that can diagnose all the fault modes of a vertical motor-driven pump, data capturing the unique signature of each fault mode is required. In practice, it is difficult to collect or capture data that captures all the fault modes from a single plant site. So to address this situation, a computational model of a vertical motor-driven pump is developed using the multipurpose finite element software COMSOL Multiphysics. The developed model is used to generate simulated data under normal operation and is compared with the vibration data collected using vibration sensors. Once the simulation model is verified under normal operating condition, simulated data for the fault mode for which minimal or no evidence is available in historical plant process data is developed. This simulated data is used to develop fault signatures to achieve robust predictive models. This paper presents modeling details and verification of the model that can used to generate data for fault modes that are not available at a plant site for condition monitoring purpose.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of Vertical Motor-driven Pump for Simulation of a Fault Signature \\ for Condition Monitoring

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Developing a complete AI-accelerated workflow for superconductor discovery

The quest to identify new superconducting materials with enhanced properties is hindered by the prohibitive cost of computing electron-phonon spectral functions, severely limiting the materials space that can be explored. Here, we introduce a Bootstrapped Ensemble of Equivariant Graph Neural Networks (BEE-NET), a machine-learning model trained to predict the Eliashberg spectral function and superconducting critical temperature with a mean-absolute-error of 0.87 K relative to DFT-based Allen-Dynes calculations. Intriguingly, BEE-NET achieves a true-negative-rate of 99.4%, enabling highly efficient screening for the rare property of superconductivity. Integrated into a multi-stage, AI-accelerated discovery pipeline that incorporates elemental-substitution strategies and machine-learned interatomic potentials, our workflow reduced over 1.3 million candidate structures to 741 dynamically and thermodynamically stable compounds with DFT-confirmed T c > 5 K. We report the successful synthesis and experimental confirmation of superconductivity in two of these previously unreported compounds. This study establishes a data-driven framework that integrates machine learning, quantum calculations, and experiments to systematically accelerate superconductor discovery.

Gibson, Jason B. [Quantum Formatics, Cambridge, MA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design Choices in Anomaly Detection for Industrial Control Systems: Insights from Gas Pipeline Data

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and naïve imputation—prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensor-decomposition–based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modern data analytics approach to predict creep of high-temperature alloys

A breakthrough in alloy design often requires comprehensive understanding in complex multi-component/multi-phase systems to generate novel material hypotheses. We introduce a modern data analytics workflow that leverages high-quality experimental data augmented with advanced features obtained from high-fidelity models. Herein, we use an example of a consistently-measured creep dataset of developmental high-temperature alloy combined with scientific alloy features populated from a high-throughput computational thermodynamic approach. Extensive correlation analyses provide ranking insights for most impactful alloy features for creep resistance, evaluated from a large set of candidate features suggested by domain experts. We also show that we can accurately train machine learning models by integrating high-ranking features obtained from correlation analyses. Consequently, the demonstrated approach can be extended beyond incorporating thermodynamic features, with input from domain experts used to compile lists of features from other alloy physics, such as diffusion kinetics and microstructure evolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dosimetric Factors and Radiomics Features Within Different Regions of Interest in Planning CT Images for Improving the Prediction of Radiation Pneumonitis

This study aimed to establish machine learning models using dosimetric factors and radiomics features within 5 regions of interest (ROIs) in treatment planning computed tomography images to improve the prediction of symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (RP) (grade ≥2).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning snow depth predictions at sites in Alaska, Norway, Siberia, Colorado and New Mexico

Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns in the Arctic and impacts on permafrost. We trained random forest machine learning models to predict snow depth from temperature data recorded at or just below the ground surface. Training data was collected at the Teller 27 Watershed and Kougarok 64 Hillslope during the 2021 - 2022 water year on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska using distributed temperature profiling (DTP) systems. We then applied this model to other sites where ground surface or shallow soil temperature data was available for at least one water year (see Related Datasets). Many of these temperature measurements were collocated with snow depth observations. Ground surface temperature (i.e. snow-ground interface temperature) is easy to measure using small, cheap and easy-to-deploy temperature sensors such as iButtons and TinyTags, and such measurements have previously been used to calculate a variety of snow metrics (e.g. snow onset date). However, this is the first study to estimate snow depth directly from ground surface temperature data. The present dataset contains one *.csv file which includes machine learning snow depth predictions at sites in Alaska, Norway, Siberia, Colorado, and New Mexico and one *.kml file including the locations of sites with snow depth predictions. No training data predictions are included in the *.csv file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimentally Driven Automated Machine-Learned Interatomic Potential for a Refractory Oxide

Understanding the structure and properties of refractory oxides is critical for high temperature applications. In this work, a combined experimental and simulation approach uses an automated closed loop via an active learner, which is initialized by x-ray and neutron diffraction measurements, and sequentially improves a machine-learning model until the experimentally predetermined phase space is covered. Furthermore, a multiphase potential is generated for a canonical example of the archetypal refractory oxide, HfO 2 , by drawing a minimum number of training configurations from room temperature to the liquid state at similar to 2900 degrees C. The method significantly reduces model development time and human effort.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Dependence of Band Gap Renormalization in High-T Sensor Materials via First-Principles and Experimental Corroboration

Understanding the temperature dependence of functional properties of high-T gas sensing materials is vital for their applications in combustion environments. The electron-phonon coupling that derives the electronic structure change with temperatures is a key property of interest as it affects other sensing responses. Herein, we assess the temperature dependence of band gap renormalization in metal oxides and perovskites by employing Allen-Heine-Cardona theory with first-principles simulations and corroborate with experimental observation. The calculated temperature-dependent band gap changes of these materials studied are in good agreement with in-house experimental data, proving that the theory can adequately predict renormalization on the band gap in the system of interest. The predicted and measured band gap variations are characterized using an analytical model, which can provide useful insights on the simulated zero-temperature band gaps. Based on the available data, a set of 53 metal oxides and perovskites were identified as potential high-T gas sensors. A machine learning model has been developed to predict the band-gap change by capturing the overall trend of the empirical parameters with respect to a reduced feature obtained by transforming the set of available physical features.

Park, Jongwoo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Group structure selection with random forests

Choosing an appropriate group structure for multigroup transport is far from an exact science. For some applications, one blindly uses a group structure developed years ago by forgotten methods. Furthermore, one sometimes uses the same group structure for a variety of problems, even if the group structure was originally developed with a certain application in mind. In this work, we create optimized group structures with simulated annealing for critical assembly test problems and apply a random forest regressor with bagging to choose the best group structure based on parameters of the different test problems. The optimized group structures were generated using a simulated annealing optimizer for several simple, spherical, and unreflected problems. The optimization was performed to minimize a cost function that included fission rate, absorption rate, leakage, and k{sub eff}. A random forest regressor was then trained on a set of International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project inputs and used to select one of these six group structures. The trained machine learning model chose the best group structure 65% of the time, and one of the three best 89% of the time. Furthermore, it decreased the L2 error over all test problems by a factor of 25 when compared to the standard Los Alamos 70-group structure. In other words, the model chose group structure that were far more appropriate for the test problems than the traditional LANL group structure. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗