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NASA NTRS2010

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-FG-202-05: Quantification of Bone Flare On [F-18] NaF PET/CT in Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Bone flare has been observed on Tc-99m bone scans during early assessment in metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (mCRPC) patients receiving select androgen-signaling pathway (AR) targeted treatments, including CYP17-inhibitor Abiraterone. This study investigates the appearance and potential clinical impact of bone flare in mCRPC patients receiving CYP17-inhibitors using {sup 18}F-NaF PET/CT. Methods: Twenty-three mCRPC patients being treated with CYP17-inhibitors received NaF PET/CT scans at baseline, week 6, and week 12 of treatment. Individual lesions were identified using a SUV>15 threshold within skeletal regions and articulated bone registration was used to track lesions between scans. Standard SUV metrics were extracted globally for each patient (pSUV) and for each individual lesion (iSUV). Differences in metrics across time-points were compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were conducted between global metrics and progression-free survival (PFS). Results: Nineteen patients (83%) showed increasing NaF PET global metrics at week 6, with pSUV{sub total} reflecting consensus change across other global metrics with median increase +33% (range +2 to 205%). Of these patients, 14 showed subsequent decrease in pSUV{sub total}, with a median of −17% (range −76 to −1%), indicating flare phenomenon. Increasing pSUV{sub mean} at week 6 correlated with extended clinical PFS (HR = 0.58, p=0.02). New lesions did not account for the initial increase in global NaF metrics. Lesion-level analysis reveals 316 lesions in the 14 patients exhibiting global flare. On average, 75% (sd: 22%) of lesions follow global trends with iSUV{sub total} increasing at week 6 and 65% (sd: 17%) showing iSUV{sub total} decrease at week 12. Conclusion: Bone flare was detected on NaF PET/CT in the first 6 weeks of treatment for mCRPC patients receiving CYP17-inhibitors, subsiding by week 12. Characterization provided in this study suggests prolonged PFS in patients showing bone flare early in select AR-directed treatments. Prostate Cancer Foundation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Provitamin A biofortification of cassava enhances shelf life but reduces dry matter content of storage roots due to altered carbon partitioning into starch

Storage roots of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), a major subsistence crop of sub-Saharan Africa, are calorie rich but deficient in essential micronutrients, including provitamin A bcarotene. In this study, b-carotene concentrations in cassava storage roots were enhanced by coexpression of transgenes for deoxy-D-xylulose-5-phosphate synthase (DXS) and bacterial phytoene synthase (crtB), mediated by the patatin-type 1 promoter. Storage roots harvested from field-grown plants accumulated carotenoids to ≤50 lg/g DW, 15- to 20-fold increases relative to roots from nontransgenic plants. Approximately 85%–90% of these carotenoids accumulated as all-trans-b-carotene, the most nutritionally efficacious carotenoid. b-Caroteneaccumulating storage roots displayed delayed onset of postharvest physiological deterioration, a major constraint limiting utilization of cassava products. Large metabolite changes were detected in b-carotene-enhanced storage roots. Most significantly, an inverse correlation was observed between b-carotene and dry matter content, with reductions of 50%–60% of dry matter content in the highest carotenoid-accumulating storage roots of different cultivars. Further analysis confirmed a concomitant reduction in starch content and increased levels of total fatty acids, triacylglycerols, soluble sugars and abscisic acid. Potato engineered to co-express DXS and crtB displayed a similar correlation between b-carotene accumulation, reduced dry matter and starch content and elevated oil and soluble sugars in tubers. Transcriptome analyses revealed a reduced expression of genes involved in starch biosynthesis including ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase genes in transgenic, carotene-accumulating cassava roots relative to nontransgenic roots. These findings highlight unintended metabolic consequences of provitamin A biofortification of starch-rich organs and point to strategies for redirecting metabolic flux to restore starch production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Electrical Conductivity through a Single Atomic Step Measured with the Proximity-Induced Superconducting Pair Correlation

Local disordered nanostructures in an atomically thick metallic layer on a semiconducting substrate play significant and decisive roles in transport properties of two-dimensional (2D) conductive systems. We measured the electrical conductivity through a step of monoatomic height in a truly microscopic manner by using as a signal the superconducting pair correlation induced by the proximity effect. The transport property across a step of a one-monolayer Pb surface metallic phase, formed on a Si(111) substrate, was evaluated by inducing the pair correlation around the local defect and measuring its response, i.e., the reduced density of states at the Fermi energy using scanning tunneling microscopy. We found that the step resistance has a significant contribution to the total resistance on a nominally flat surface. Our study also revealed that steps in the 2D metallic layer terminate the propagation of the pair correlation. Furthermore, superconductivity is enhanced between the first surface step and the superconductor–normal-metal interface by reflectionless tunneling when the step is located within a coherence length.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1993

Frequency distributions and correlations of solar X-ray flare parameters

Frequency distributions of flare parameters are determined from over 12,000 solar flares. The flare duration, the peak counting rate, the peak hard X-ray flux, the total energy in electrons, and the peak energy flux in electrons are among the parameters studied. Linear regression fits, as well as the slopes of the frequency distributions, are used to determine the correlations between these parameters. The relationship between the variations of the frequency distributions and the solar activity cycle is also investigated. Theoretical models for the frequency distribution of flare parameters are dependent on the probability of flaring and the temporal evolution of the flare energy build-up. The results of this study are consistent with stochastic flaring and exponential energy build-up. The average build-up time constant is found to be 0.5 times the mean time between flares.

Crosby, Norma B.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Application of selected methods of remote sensing for detecting carbonaceous water pollution

A reach of the Houston Ship Channel was investigated during three separate overflights correlated with ground truth sampling on the Channel. Samples were analyzed for such conventional parameters as biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, turbidity, chlorophyll, pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and light penetration. Infrared analyses conducted on each sample included reflectance ATR analysis, carbon tetrachloride extraction of organics and subsequent scanning, and KBr evaporate analysis of CCl4 extract concentrate. Imagery which was correlated with field and laboratory data developed from ground truth sampling included that obtained from aerial KA62 hardware, RC-8 metric camera systems, and the RS-14 infrared scanner. The images were subjected to analysis by three film density gradient interpretation units. Data were then analyzed for correlations between imagery interpretation as derived from the three instruments and laboratory infrared signatures and other pertinent field and laboratory analyses.

Davis, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Separating Real and Apparent Effects of Cloud, Humidity, and Dynamics on Aerosol Optical Thickness near Cloud Edges

Aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is one of aerosol parameters that can be measured on a routine basis with reasonable accuracy from Sun-photometric observations at the surface. However, AOT-derived near clouds is fraught with various real effects and artifacts, posing a big challenge for studying aerosol and cloud interactions. Recently, several studies have reported correlations between AOT and cloud cover, pointing to potential cloud contamination and the aerosol humidification effect; however, not many quantitative assessments have been made. In this study, various potential causes of apparent correlations are investigated in order to separate the real effects from the artifacts, using well-maintained observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network, Total Sky Imager, airborne nephelometer, etc., over the Southern Great Plains site operated by the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. It was found that aerosol humidification effects can explain about one fourth of the correlation between the cloud cover and AOT. New particle genesis, cloud-processed particles, atmospheric dynamics, and aerosol indirect effects are likely to be contributing to as much as the remaining three fourth of the relationship between cloud cover and AOT.

Jeong, Myeong-Jae↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial distributions of X CO 2 seasonal cycle amplitude and phase over northern high-latitude regions

Satellite-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) provide measurements in remote regions, such as the biologically sensitive but undersampled northern high latitudes, and are progressing toward true global data coverage. Recent improvements in satellite retrievals of total column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO 2 ) from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) have allowed for unprecedented data coverage of northern high-latitude regions, while maintaining acceptable accuracy and consistency relative to ground-based observations, and finally providing sufficient data in spring and autumn for analysis of satellite-observed X CO 2 seasonal cycles across a majority of terrestrial northern high-latitude regions. Here, we present an analysis of X CO 2 seasonal cycles calculated from OCO-2 data for temperate, boreal, and tundra regions, subdivided into 5° latitude by 20° longitude zones. We quantify the seasonal cycle amplitudes (SCAs) and the annual half drawdown day (HDD). OCO-2 SCAs are in good agreement with ground-based observations at five high-latitude sites, and OCO-2 SCAs show very close agreement with SCAs calculated for model estimates of X CO 2 from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) global inversion-optimized greenhouse gas flux model v19r1 and the CarbonTracker2019 model (CT2019B). Model estimates of X CO 2 from the GEOS-Chem CO 2 simulation version 12.7.2 with underlying biospheric fluxes from CarbonTracker2019 (GC-CT2019) yield SCAs of larger magnitude and spread over a larger range than those from CAMS, CT2019B, or OCO-2; however, GC-CT2019 SCAs still exhibit a very similar spatial distribution across northern high-latitude regions to that from CAMS, CT2019B, and OCO-2. Zones in the Asian boreal forest were found to have exceptionally large SCA and early HDD, and both OCO-2 data and model estimates yield a distinct longitudinal gradient of increasing SCA from west to east across the Eurasian continent. In northern high-latitude regions, spanning latitudes from 47 to 72° N, longitudinal gradients in both SCA and HDD are at least as pronounced as latitudinal gradients, suggesting a role for global atmospheric transport patterns in defining spatial distributions of X CO2 seasonality across these regions. GEOS-Chem surface contact tracers show that the largest X CO 2 SCAs occur in areas with the greatest contact with land surfaces, integrated over 15–30d. The correlation of X CO 2 SCA with these land surface contact tracers is stronger than the correlation of X CO 2 SCA with the SCA of CO 2 fluxes or the total annual CO 2 flux within each 5° latitude by 20° longitude zone. This indicates that accumulation of terrestrial CO 2 flux during atmospheric transport is a major driver of regional variations in X CO 2 SCA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Correlating hot-electron preheat from the two-plasmon decay instability to $ρR$ degradation for direct-drive implosions on OMEGA

Focused experiments were performed with the goal of isolating the impact of hot-electron preheat on compression in deuterium–tritium (DT) layered, direct-drive implosions on OMEGA. Preheat from the hot-electrons generated by two-plasmon–decay (TPD) activity was varied through the incident laser intensity, with the total preheat energy deposited into unablated DT fuel being inferred using hard x-ray measurements. Results show a clear correlation between the inferred preheat levels and $ρR$ degradation that is consistent with a derived, 1D preheat model. A fit to the results also provides an estimated range of $ρR$ degradation from non-preheat sources for the adiabat ≈5 implosions used in this study. A follow-up study using targets containing Si-doped (5.5%) CH ablators (CHSi) demonstrated results consistent with mid-Z dopants mitigating TPD activity by showing these targets had almost no $ρR$ degradation as the laser intensity was increased up to levels previously considered damaging.

Doping↗

DOE OSTI2018

Nanofiber-Based Total Internal Reflection Microscopy for Characterizing Colloidal Systems at the Microscale

Bulk colloidal interactions are dictated by the physical properties of individual particles dispersed in solution. However, for many applications it remains challenging to predict system-level colloidal behavior. Comprehensive characterization typically requires disparate techniques that can observe correlations between microscale particle–surface interactions and physical properties of the particles. In this work, we present a unique tin dioxide (SnO2) nanofiber-based total internal reflection microscopy (TIRM) method to efficiently characterize colloidal behavior as a function of particle-level properties in complex fluidic conditions. We develop and model the device physics to understand the physical underpinnings of the raw device data and then use these models to design proof-of-concept experiments to verify device function. Statistical trends in the data collected from a nominal system of 80 nm gold nanoparticles correspond to theoretical predictions as we vary key design parameters such as particle size, surface charge, and solution ionic strength. Lastly, we consider the practical limitations of the technique gleaned from our studies and offer suggestions for utilizing the platform to quantitatively analyze nonideal colloidal systems with distributed or heterogeneous system parameters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2015

Core-core and core-valence correlation energy atomic and molecular benchmarks for Li through Ar

We have established benchmark core-core, core-valence, and valence-valence absolute coupled-cluster single double (triple) correlation energies (±0.1%) for 210 species covering the first- and second-rows of the periodic table. These species provide 194 energy differences (±0.03 mE{sub h}) including ionization potentials, electron affinities, and total atomization energies. These results can be used for calibration of less expensive methodologies for practical routine determination of core-core and core-valence correlation energies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1976

Meteorological adjustment of yearly mean values for air pollutant concentration comparison

Using multiple linear regression analysis, models which estimate mean concentrations of Total Suspended Particulate (TSP), sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide as a function of several meteorologic variables, two rough economic indicators, and a simple trend in time are studied. Meteorologic data were obtained and do not include inversion heights. The goodness of fit of the estimated models is partially reflected by the squared coefficient of multiple correlation which indicates that, at the various sampling stations, the models accounted for about 23 to 47 percent of the total variance of the observed TSP concentrations. If the resulting model equations are used in place of simple overall means of the observed concentrations, there is about a 20 percent improvement in either: (1) predicting mean concentrations for specified meteorological conditions; or (2) adjusting successive yearly averages to allow for comparisons devoid of meteorological effects. An application to source identification is presented using regression coefficients of wind velocity predictor variables.

Sidik, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Total-sky and clear-sky variability of outgoing longwave radiation and shortwave radiation and its relation to cloud fluctuation statistics

Correlation statistics are used to investigate some of the characteristic temporal and spatial scales of the day-to-day changes in cloudiness which tend to dominate the variance of outgoing LW radiation and SW radiation fields. The temporal decorrelation time of the radiation field as measured by the lag time required for the autocorrelation of a region to fall to 0.4 is about 12 hours in the midlatitude storm track. Decorrelation time approaches one to two days when the averaging area of the region is increased significantly. Decorrelation times are also longer in the equatorial and tropical regions. The short decorrelation times are a manifestation of the creation, breakup, and movement of cloud systems. Cross-correlation analysis of the radiation field in the midlatitude storm track region and the subtropical dry zone shows advection speeds that range from about 25 m/sec in the storm tracks to about 8 m/sec in the subtropical dry zone.

Bess, T. D.↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-FG-207B-05: Iterative Reconstruction Via Prior Image Constrained Total Generalized Variation for Spectral CT

Purpose: To investigate iterative reconstruction via prior image constrained total generalized variation (PICTGV) for spectral computed tomography (CT) using fewer projections while achieving greater image quality. Methods: The proposed PICTGV method is formulated as an optimization problem, which balances the data fidelity and prior image constrained total generalized variation of reconstructed images in one framework. The PICTGV method is based on structure correlations among images in the energy domain and high-quality images to guide the reconstruction of energy-specific images. In PICTGV method, the high-quality image is reconstructed from all detector-collected X-ray signals and is referred as the broad-spectrum image. Distinct from the existing reconstruction methods applied on the images with first order derivative, the higher order derivative of the images is incorporated into the PICTGV method. An alternating optimization algorithm is used to minimize the PICTGV objective function. We evaluate the performance of PICTGV on noise and artifacts suppressing using phantom studies and compare the method with the conventional filtered back-projection method as well as TGV based method without prior image. Results: On the digital phantom, the proposed method outperforms the existing TGV method in terms of the noise reduction, artifacts suppression, and edge detail preservation. Compared to that obtained by the TGV based method without prior image, the relative root mean square error in the images reconstructed by the proposed method is reduced by over 20%. Conclusion: The authors propose an iterative reconstruction via prior image constrained total generalize variation for spectral CT. Also, we have developed an alternating optimization algorithm and numerically demonstrated the merits of our approach. Results show that the proposed PICTGV method outperforms the TGV method for spectral CT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Effects of surface temperature and Reynolds number on heat transfer to the Shuttle Orbiter leeward fuselage

Heat-transfer data obtained at hypersonic shock tunnel conditions and three-dimensional flow field computations were used to study the influence of surface temperature and Reynolds number on the heating experienced by the leeward fuselage area of the Space Shuttle Orbiter configuration. The basic results of this study indicate that systematic variations in the average total enthalpy within a boundary layer (as obtained through controlled nonadiabatic processes) has an influence on the heat transfer to downstream areas which can be correlated; even in three-dimensional separated flow areas. Specifically, the average separated-flow Stanton number for the fuselage leeward surface is shown to be moderately dependent on the windward-wall to free-stream total temperature ratio.

Bertin, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Bioelectrical impedance analysis. What does it measure?

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) has been proposed for measuring fat-free mass, total body water, percent fat, body cell mass, intracellular water, and extracellular water: a veritable laboratory in a box. Although it is unlikely that BIA is quite this versatile, correlations have been demonstrated between BIA and all of these body compartments. At the same time, it is known that all of the compartments are correlated among themselves. Because of this, it is difficult to determine whether BIA is specific for any or all of these compartments. To investigate this question, we induced acute changes in total body water and its compartments over a 3-h period. Using this approach, we demonstrated that multifrequency BIA, using the Cole-Cole model to calculate the zero frequency and infinite frequency resistance, measures extracellular and intracellular water.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

DOE OSTI2017

Drivers of nitrogen transfer in stream food webs across continents

Studies of trophic-level material and energy transfers are central to ecology. The use of isotopic tracers has now made it possible to measure trophic transfer efficiencies of important nutrients and to better understand how these materials move through food webs. We analyzed data from thirteen 15 N-ammonium tracer addition experiments to quantify N transfer from basal resources to animals in headwater streams with varying physical, chemical, and biological features. N transfer efficiencies from primary uptake compartments (PUCs; heterotrophic microorganisms and primary producers) to primary consumers was lower (mean: 11.5%, range: <1%-43%) than N transfer efficiencies from primary consumers to predators (mean: 80%, range: 5%- >100%). Total N transferred (as a rate) was greater in streams with open compared to closed canopies and overall N transfer efficiency generally followed a similar pattern, although was not statistically significant. We used principal component analysis to condense a suite of site characteristics into two environmental components. Total N uptake rates among trophic levels were best predicted by the component that was correlated with latitude, DIN:SRP, GPP:ER, and % canopy cover. N transfer efficiency did not respond consistently to environmental variables. Here, our results suggest that canopy cover influences N movement through stream food webs because light availability and primary production facilitate N transfer to higher trophic levels.

15N↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fingerprinting groundwater salinity sources in the Gulf Coast Aquifer System, USA

Understanding groundwater salinity sources in the Gulf Coast Aquifer System (GCAS) is a critical issue due to depletion of fresh groundwater and concerns for potential seawater intrusion. The study objective was to assess sources of groundwater salinity in the GCAS using ∼1,400 chemical analyses and ∼90 isotopic analyses along nine well transects in the Texas Gulf Coast, USA. Salinity increases from northeast (median total dissolved solids (TDS) 340 mg/L) to southwest (median TDS 1,160 mg/L), which inversely correlates with the precipitation distribution pattern (1,370– 600 mm/yr, respectively). Molar Cl/Br ratios (median 540–600), depleted δ{sup 2}H and δ{sup 18}O (−24.7‰, −4.5‰) relative to seawater (Cl/Br ∼655 and δ{sup 2}H, δ{sup 18}O 0‰, 0‰, respectively), and elevated {sup 36}Cl/Cl ratios (∼100), suggest precipitation enriched with marine aerosols as the dominant salinity source. Mass balance estimates suggest that marine aerosols could adequately explain salt loading over the large expanse of the GCAS. Evapotranspiration enrichment to the southwest is supported by elevated chloride concentrations in soil profiles and higher δ{sup 18}O. Secondary salinity sources include dissolution of salt domes or upwelling brines from geopressured zones along growth faults, mainly near the coast in the northeast. The regional extent and large quantities of brackish water have the potential to support moderate-sized desalination plants in this location. These results have important implications for groundwater management, suggesting a current lack of regional seawater intrusion and a suitable source of relatively low TDS water for desalination.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗