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DOE OSTI2024

Improved information criteria for Bayesian model averaging in lattice field theory

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. Here, we revisit the derivation of estimators for these model weights. Use of the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a starting point leads naturally to a number of alternative information criteria suitable for Bayesian model weight estimation. We explore three such criteria, known to the statistics literature before, in detail: a Bayesian analog of the Akaike information criterion which we call the BAIC, the Bayesian predictive information criterion, and the posterior predictive information criterion (PPIC). We compare the use of these information criteria in numerical analysis problems common in lattice field theory calculations. We find that the PPIC has the most appealing theoretical properties and can give the best performance in terms of model-averaging uncertainty, particularly in the presence of noisy data, while the BAIC is a simple and reliable alternative.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Effect of Inverter Loading Ratio on Energy Estimate Bias: Preprint

Subhourly effects, particularly variability in solar irradiance, can lead to underestimation of inverter clipping losses and overestimation of energy in hourly photovoltaic system performance models, particularly for systems with high inverter loading ratios. Direct simulation of this error can be complicated by factors such as the representation of spatial and temporal variability in hourly weather data and transient system conditions. In this work we take an alternative approach using real system power measurements to show that energy predictions from typical industry models suffer from a bias that increases with inverter loading ratio. We also show that this loading ratio-dependent bias is strongly correlated with an empirical subhourly inverter clipping bias derived from real power plant data. Finally, we show that this bias is not necessarily specific to any one model or weather dataset by recreating similar biases with alternatives of each.

clipping↗

NASA NTRS2000

Alternative Architectures for Distributed Work in the National Airspace System

The architecture for the National Airspace System (NAS) in the United States has evolved over time to rely heavily on the distribution of tasks and control authority in order to keep cognitive complexity manageable for any one individual. This paper characterizes a number of different subsystems that have been recently incorporated in the NAS. The goal of this discussion is to begin to identify the critical parameters defining the differences among alternative architectures in terms of the locus of control and in terms of access to relevant data and knowledge. At an abstract level, this analysis can be described as an effort to describe alternative "rules of the game" for the NAS.

Smith, Philip J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

Hanson, Andrea↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7% of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.

Linear Alternators↗

NASA NTRS2015

Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor

Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and also compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7 of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.

Linear Alternators↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Metric to Quantify Shared Visual Attention in Two-Person Teams

Introduction: Critical tasks in high-risk environments are often performed by teams, the members of which must work together efficiently. In some situations, the team members may have to work together to solve a particular problem, while in others it may be better for them to divide the work into separate tasks that can be completed in parallel. We hypothesize that these two team strategies can be differentiated on the basis of shared visual attention, measured by gaze tracking. 2) Methods: Gaze recordings were obtained for two-person flight crews flying a high-fidelity simulator (Gontar, Hoermann, 2014). Gaze was categorized with respect to 12 areas of interest (AOIs). We used these data to construct time series of 12 dimensional vectors, with each vector component representing one of the AOIs. At each time step, each vector component was set to 0, except for the one corresponding to the currently fixated AOI, which was set to 1. This time series could then be averaged in time, with the averaging window time (t) as a variable parameter. For example, when we average with a t of one minute, each vector component represents the proportion of time that the corresponding AOI was fixated within the corresponding one minute interval. We then computed the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between the gaze proportion vectors for each of the two crew members, at each point in time, resulting in a signal representing the time-varying correlation between gaze behaviors. We determined criteria for concluding correlated gaze behavior using two methods: first, a permutation test was applied to the subjects' data. When one crew member's gaze proportion vector is correlated with a random time sample from the other crewmember's data, a distribution of correlation values is obtained that differs markedly from the distribution obtained from temporally aligned samples. In addition to validating that the gaze tracker was functioning reasonably well, this also allows us to compute probabilities of coordinated behavior for each value of the correlation. As an alternative, we also tabulated distributions of correlation coefficients for synthetic data sets, in which the behavior was modeled as a first-order Markov process, and compared correlation distributions for identical processes with those for disparate processes, allowing us to choose criteria and estimate error rates. 3) Discussion: Our method of gaze correlation is able to measure shared visual attention, and can distinguish between activities involving different instruments. We plan to analyze whether pilots strategies of sharing visual attention can predict performance. Possible measurements of performance include expert ratings from instructors, fuel consumption, total task time, and failure rate. While developed for two-person crews, our approach can be applied to larger groups, using intra-class correlation coefficients instead of the Pearson product-moment correlation.

Gontar, Patrick↗

DOE OSTI2016

Application of quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics methods in the study of enzymatic reaction mechanisms

Quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics ( QM / MM ) methods offer a very appealing option for the computational study of enzymatic reaction mechanisms, by separating the problem into two parts that can be treated with different computational methods. Hence, in a QM / MM formalism, the part of the system in which catalysis actually occurs and that involves the active site, substrates and directly participating amino acid residues is treated at an adequate quantum mechanical level to describe the chemistry taking place. For the remaining of the enzyme, which does not participate directly in the reaction, but that typically involves a much larger number of atoms, molecular mechanics is employed, traditionally through the application of a biomolecular force field. When applied with care, QM / MM methods can be used with great advantage in comparing, at a structural and energetic level, different mechanistic proposals, discarding mechanistic alternatives and proposing new mechanistic pathways that are consistent with the available experimental data. With time, diverse flavors within the QM / MM methods have emerged, differing in a variety of technical and conceptual aspects. Hence present alternatives differ between additive and subtractive QM / MM schemes, the type of boundary schemes, and the way in which the electrostatic interactions between the two regions are accounted for. Also, single‐conformation QM / MM , multi‐ PES approaches, and QM / MM Molecular Dynamics coexist today, each type with its own advantages and limitations. This review focuses on the application of QM / MM methods in the study of enzymatic reaction mechanisms, briefly presenting also the most important technical aspects involved in these calculations. Particular attention is dedicated to the application of the single‐conformation QM / MM , multi‐ PES QM / MM studies, and QM / MM‐FEP methods and to the advantages and disadvantages of the different types of QM / MM . Recent breakthroughs are also introduced. A selection of hand‐picked examples is used to illustrate such features. WIREs Comput Mol Sci 2017, 7:e1281. doi: 10.1002/wcms.1281 This article is categorized under: Structure and Mechanism > Computational Biochemistry and Biophysics Structure and Mechanism > Reaction Mechanisms and Catalysis Electronic Structure Theory > Combined QM/MM Methods

Sousa, Sérgio Filipe↗

DOE OSTI2016

HPC-NMF: A High-Performance Parallel Algorithm for Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

NMF is a useful tool for many applications in different domains such as topic modeling in text mining, background separation in video analysis, and community detection in social networks. Despite its popularity in the data mining community, there is a lack of efficient distributed algorithms to solve the problem for big data sets. We propose a high-performance distributed-memory parallel algorithm that computes the factorization by iteratively solving alternating non-negative least squares (NLS) subproblems for $\WW$ and $\HH$. It maintains the data and factor matrices in memory (distributed across processors), uses MPI for interprocessor communication, and, in the dense case, provably minimizes communication costs (under mild assumptions). As opposed to previous implementation, our algorithm is also flexible: It performs well for both dense and sparse matrices, and allows the user to choose any one of the multiple algorithms for solving the updates to low rank factors $\WW$ and $\HH$ within the alternating iterations.

Kannan, Ramakrishnan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fast Approximate Methods for Modified Gravity Cosmological Simulations

The accelerated expansion of the Universe poses a major theoretical puzzle. Although the assumption of a non-zero cosmological constant provides a minimal extension of general relativity that is consistent with observational data, many theories of modified gravity have been suggested as possible alternatives. Predictions of structure formation for these models in the fully nonlinear regime are very expensive and it is difficult, if not impossible, to explore such a huge space of models and parameters using high-resolution N-body simulations. Even in the mildly nonlinear regime, perturbative methods can become extremely complex. We explore whether simplified dynamical approximations, applicable for a certain set of cosmological probes, can be used to investigate models of modified gravity with acceptable accuracy in the latter instance. For the case of chameleon gravity, we find that these methods can indeed be used to explore the region around the baryon acoustic oscillation scale, k ~ 0:1 hMpc-1 but not much further.

cosmology↗

NASA NTRS1994

An evaluation of criteria that may be used to identify species surviving a mass extinction

One of the most difficult obstacles to establishing a causal connection between mass extinctions and large body impacts is the existence of what appear to be many more KT survivor species than previously suspected. Though interpretations of 'Cretaceous' faunal elements in lowermost Danian sediments differ, this enigmatic fauna has not been recovered from every biozone-complete boundary section, including the El Kef stratotype. In terms of their potential for providing constraints on scenarios seeking to account for the KT extinction event, the significance of such observations cannot be overstated. Owing to the consistency with which these observations have been made over the last several years, the possibility of widespread trans-KT biotic survivorship can no longer be dismissed. Rather, the survivorship hypothesis must be tested alongside its alternative (the reworking hypothesis) to determine which explains the available data in the most complete yet parsimonious manner. Moreover, valid tests for survivorship cannot be based on negative evidence or on the assumption that only a small cohort of species could have survived the KT boundary event. Several authors have recently proposed various criteria that might be used to test alternative interpretations for this aspect lowermost Danian biotic record.

Macleod, N.↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Linear Point Standard Ruler with DESI DR1 and DR2 Data

The linear point, a purely geometric feature in the monopole of the two-point correlation function, has been proposed as an alternative standard ruler. Compared to the peak in the correlation function, it is more robust to late-time nonlinear effects at the percent level. In light of improved simulations and high quality data, we revisit the robustness of the linear point and use it as an alternative to template-based fitting approaches typically used in BAO analyses. We present the linear point measurements on galaxy samples from the first and second data releases (DR1 and DR2) of the DESI survey. We convert the linear point into a dimensionless parameter $α_{iso,LP}$, defined as the ratio of the linear point in the fiducial cosmology and the observed value, analogous to the isotropic BAO scaling parameter $α_{iso}$ used in previous BAO measurements. Using the 2nd generation of AbacusSummit mock catalogs, we find that linear point measurements are more precise when calculated in the post-reconstruction regime with 15-60% smaller uncertainties than those pre-reconstruction. We find a systematic shift in the linear point measurements compared against the isotropic BAO measurements in mocks; we attribute this to the isotropic damping parameter responsible for smearing the linear point in the nonlinear regime. We propose a sample-dependent correction that mitigates the impact of late-time nonlinear effects. While this introduces a cosmology dependence in an otherwise model-independent measurement, this is necessary given the sub-percent precision dictated by current cosmological surveys. Comparing $α_{iso,LP}$ with isotropic BAO measurements made on the DESI DR1 and DR2 galaxy samples, we find excellent agreement after applying this correction, particularly post-reconstruction. We discuss future scope regarding cosmological inference with linear point measurements.

Uberoi, N. [Yale U.] (ORCID:0000000275179629)↗

DOE OSTI2023

2D Seismic Surveys as an Alternative for CO 2 Monitoring in the North Dakota CarbonSAFE Project

Conference presentation for International Meeting for Applied Geoscience & Energy (IMAGE), Houston, TX, August 28 – September 1, 2023. As part of the North Dakota CarbonSAFE project, seismic, controlled-source electromagnetic, and microgravity baseline monitoring surveys were collected to assess the safe, permanent, commercial-scale geologic storage of CO 2 generated by the Milton R. Young coal-fired power plant. Data from five 2D seismic lines were assessed as an alternative to 3D seismic for CO 2 monitoring. 2D and 3D surveys were compared using wave equation-based (WEB)-AVO inversion. The encouraging WEB-AVO results demonstrated that 2D surveys could be included in CO 2 monitoring programs as a cost-effective method.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploratory Efforts to Constrain Geologic Material Properties from Remote Sensing Data: Joint Study (FY2020 Final Report)

Identification and characterization of underground events from surface or remote data requires a thorough understanding of the rock material properties. However, material properties usually come from borehole data, which is expensive and not always available. A potential alternative is to use topographic characteristics to approximate the strength, but this has never been done before quantitatively. Here we present the results from the first steps towards this goal. We have found that there are strong correlations between compressive and tensile strengths and slopes, but these correlations vary depending on data analysis details. Rugosity may be better correlated to strength than slope values. More comprehensive analyses are needed to fully understand the best method of predicting strength from topography for this area. We also found that misalignment of multiple GIS datasets can have a large influence on the ability to make interpretations. Lastly, these results will require further study in a variety of climatic conditions before being applicable to other sites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploratory Efforts to Constrain Geologic Material Properties from Remote Sensing Data: A Joint Study

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1997

Foreshock Langmuir Waves for Unusually Constant Solar Wind Conditions: Data and Implications for Foreshock Structure

Plasma wave data are compared with ISEE 1's position in the electron foreshock for an interval with unusually constant (but otherwise typical) solar wind magnetic field and plasma characteristics. For this period, temporal variations in the wave characteristics can be confidently separated from sweeping of the spatially varying foreshock back and forth across the spacecraft. The spacecraft's location, particularly the coordinate D(sub f) downstream from the foreshock boundary (often termed DIFF), is calculated by using three shock models and the observed solar wind magnetometer and plasma data. Scatterplots of the wave field versus D(sub f) are used to constrain viable shock models, to investigate the observed scatter in the wave fields at constant D(sub f), and to test the theoretical predictions of linear instability theory. The scatterplots confirm the abrupt onset of the foreshock waves near the upstream boundary, the narrow width in D(sub f) of the region with high fields, and the relatively slow falloff of the fields at large D(sub f), as seen in earlier studies, but with much smaller statistical scatter. The plots also show an offset of the high-field region from the foreshock boundary. It is shown that an adaptive, time-varying shock model with no free parameters, determined by the observed solar wind data and published shock crossings, is viable but that two alternative models are not. Foreshock wave studies can therefore remotely constrain the bow shock's location. The observed scatter in wave field at constant D(sub f) is shown to be real and to correspond to real temporal variations, not to unresolved changes in D(sub f). By comparing the wave data with a linear instability theory based on a published model for the electron beam it is found that the theory can account qualitatively and semiquantitatively for the abrupt onset of the waves near D(sub f) = 0, for the narrow width and offset of the high-field region, and for the decrease in wave intensity with increasing D(sub f). Quantitative differences between observations and theory remain, including large overprediction of the wave fields and the slower than predicted falloff at large D(sub f) of the wave fields. These differences, as well as the unresolved issue of the electron beam speed in the high-field region of the foreshock, are discussed. The intrinsic temporal variability of the wave fields, as well as their overprediction based on homogeneous plasma theory, are indicative of stochastic growth physics, which causes wave growth to be random and varying in sign, rather than secular.

Cairns, Iver H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Display Sharing: An Alternative Paradigm

The current Johnson Space Center (JSC) Mission Control Center (MCC) Video Transport System (VTS) provides flight controllers and management the ability to meld raw video from various sources with telemetry to improve situational awareness. However, maintaining a separate infrastructure for video delivery and integration of video content with data adds significant complexity and cost to the system. When considering alternative architectures for a VTS, the current system's ability to share specific computer displays in their entirety to other locations, such as large projector systems, flight control rooms, and back supporting rooms throughout the facilities and centers must be incorporated into any new architecture. Internet Protocol (IP)-based systems also support video delivery and integration. IP-based systems generally have an advantage in terms of cost and maintainability. Although IP-based systems are versatile, the task of sharing a computer display from one workstation to another can be time consuming for an end-user and inconvenient to administer at a system level. The objective of this paper is to present a prototype display sharing enterprise solution. Display sharing is a system which delivers image sharing across the LAN while simultaneously managing bandwidth, supporting encryption, enabling recovery and resynchronization following a loss of signal, and, minimizing latency. Additional critical elements will include image scaling support, multi -sharing, ease of initial integration and configuration, integration with desktop window managers, collaboration tools, host and recipient controls. This goal of this paper is to summarize the various elements of an IP-based display sharing system that can be used in today's control center environment.

Brown, Michael A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Alternating current conduction mechanisms of RbMgPO4 compound

Highlights: • Two displacive reversible phase transitions located at T{sub 1} = 442/432 K and T{sub 2} = 460/445 K (heating/cooling). • The temperature dependence of conductivity was described in terms of Arrhenius relation. • The ac conductivity of this compound is proportional to ω{sup s} where the s values are between 0 and 2. • The (CBH) model was found to be the appropriate transport mechanism in RbMgPO{sub 4} compound. - Abstract: Rubidium magnesium monophosphate (RbMgPO{sub 4}) compound was prepared from highly pure constituents by solid state reaction. It was characterized by X-ray powder diffraction, IR, Raman, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and impedance spectroscopy. The infrared and Raman spectra were interpreted on the basis of PO{sub 4}{sup 3−} vibrations. DSC revealed two displacive and reversible phase transitions at T{sub 1} = 442/432 K and T{sub 2} = 460/445 K (heating/cooling). The electrical conductivity was measured in the frequency and temperature range 200 Hz-5 MHz and 423 K–523 K, respectively. The obtained results were analysed by fitting the experimental data to an equivalent circuit model. The temperature dependence of alternating and direct current conductivities (σ{sub ac}, σ{sub dc}) confirms the observed transitions in the calorimetric study; they were described in terms of Arrhenius relation. The activation energy’s values were determined in each phase. The AC conductivity behavior is ensured by a single process defined as a hopping transport mechanism. The conductivity frequency dependence was interpreted using the correlated barrier-hopping model (CBH) in all phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗