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DOE OSTI2019

Maturing global CO 2 storage resources on offshore continental margins to achieve 2DS emissions reductions

Most studies on CO 2 emissions reduction strategies that address the ‘two-degree scenario’ (2DS) recognize a significant role for CCS. For CCS to be effective, it must be deployed globally on both existing and emerging energy systems. For nations with large-scale emissions, offshore geologic CO 2 storage provides an attractive and efficient long-term strategy. While some nations are already developing CCS projects using offshore CO 2 storage resources, most geographic regions have yet to begin. This paper demonstrates the geologic significance of global continental margins for providing broadly-equitable, geographically-relevant, and high-quality CO 2 storage resources. We then use principles of pore-space utilization and subsurface pressure constraints together with analogs of historic industry well deployment rates to demonstrate how the required storage capacity can be developed as a function of time and technical maturity to enable the global deployment of offshore storage for facilitating 2DS. Our analysis indicates that 10–14 thousand CO 2 injection wells will be needed globally by 2050 to achieve this goal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California

Abstract After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS2013

RUSHMAPS: Real-Time Uploadable Spherical Harmonic Moment Analysis for Particle Spectrometers

RUSHMAPS is a new onboard data reduction scheme that gives real-time access to key science parameters (e.g. moments) of a class of heliophysics science and/or solar system exploration investigation that includes plasma particle spectrometers (PPS), but requires moments reporting (density, bulk-velocity, temperature, pressure, etc.) of higher-level quality, and tolerates a lowpass (variable quality) spectral representation of the corresponding particle velocity distributions, such that telemetry use is minimized. The proposed methodology trades access to the full-resolution velocity distribution data, saving on telemetry, for real-time access to both the moments and an adjustable-quality (increasing quality increases volume) spectral representation of distribution functions. Traditional onboard data storage and downlink bandwidth constraints severely limit PPS system functionality and drive cost, which, as a consequence, drives a limited data collection and lower angular energy and time resolution. This prototypical system exploit, using high-performance processing technology at GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center), uses a SpaceCube and/or Maestro-type platform for processing. These processing platforms are currently being used on the International Space Station as a technology demonstration, and work is currently ongoing in a new onboard computation system for the Earth Science missions, but they have never been implemented in heliospheric science or solar system exploration missions. Preliminary analysis confirms that the targeted processor platforms possess the processing resources required for realtime application of these algorithms to the spectrometer data. SpaceCube platforms demonstrate that the target architecture possesses the sort of compact, low-mass/power, radiation-tolerant characteristics needed for flight. These high-performing hybrid systems embed unprecedented amounts of onboard processing power in the CPU (central processing unit), FPGAs (field programmable gate arrays), and DSP (digital signal processing) elements. The fundamental computational algorithm de constructs 3D velocity distributions in terms of spherical harmonic spectral coefficients (which are analogous to a Fourier sine-cosine decomposition), but uses instead spherical harmonics Legendre polynomial orthogonal functions as a basis for the expansion, portraying each 2D angular distribution at every energy or, geometrically, spherical speed-shell swept by the particle spectrometer. Optionally, these spherical harmonic spectral coefficients may be telemetered to the ground. These will provide a smoothed description of the velocity distribution function whose quality will depend on the number of coefficients determined. Successfully implemented on the GSFC-developed processor, the capability to integrate the proposed methodology with both heritage and anticipated future plasma particle spectrometer designs is demonstrated (with sufficiently detailed design analysis to advance TRL) to show specific science relevancy with future HSD (Heliophysics Science Division) solar-interplanetary, planetary missions, sounding rockets and/or CubeSat missions.

Figueroa-Vinas, Adolfo↗

DOE OSTI2015

Trajectory Modulated Arc Therapy: A Fully Dynamic Delivery With Synchronized Couch and Gantry Motion Significantly Improves Dosimetric Indices Correlated With Poor Cosmesis in Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation

Purpose: To develop planning and delivery capabilities for linear accelerator–based nonisocentric trajectory modulated arc therapy (TMAT) and to evaluate the benefit of TMAT for accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) with the patient in prone position. Methods and Materials: An optimization algorithm for volumetrically modulated arc therapy (VMAT) was generalized to allow for user-defined nonisocentric TMAT trajectories combining couch rotations and translations. After optimization, XML scripts were automatically generated to program and subsequently deliver the TMAT plans. For 10 breast patients in the prone position, TMAT and 6-field noncoplanar intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans were generated under equivalent objectives and constraints. These plans were compared with regard to whole breast tissue volume receiving more than 100%, 80%, 50%, and 20% of the prescription dose. Results: For TMAT APBI, nonisocentric collision-free horizontal arcs with large angular span (251.5 ± 7.9°) were optimized and delivered with delivery time of ∼4.5 minutes. Percentage changes of whole breast tissue volume receiving more than 100%, 80%, 50%, and 20% of the prescription dose for TMAT relative to IMRT were −10.81% ± 6.91%, −27.81% ± 7.39%, −14.82% ± 9.67%, and 39.40% ± 10.53% (P≤.01). Conclusions: This is a first demonstration of end-to-end planning and delivery implementation of a fully dynamic APBI TMAT. Compared with IMRT, TMAT resulted in marked reduction of the breast tissue volume irradiated at high doses.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS2002

SMEX-Lite Modular Solar Array Architecture

For the most part, Goddard solar arrays have been custom designs that are unique to each mission. The solar panel design has been frozen prior to issuing an RFP for their procurement. There has typically been 6-9 months between RFP release and contract award, followed by an additional 24 months for performance of the contract. For Small Explorer (SMEX) missions, with three years between mission definition and launch, this has been a significant problem. The SMEX solar panels have been sufficiently small that the contract performance period has been reduced to 12-15 months. The bulk of this time is used up in the final design definition and fabrication of flight solar cell assemblies. Even so, it has been virtually impossible to have the spacecraft design at a level of maturity sufficient to freeze the solar panel geometry and release the RFP in time to avoid schedule problems with integrating the solar panels to the spacecraft. With that in mind, the SMEX-Lite project team developed a modular architecture for the assembly of solar arrays to greatly reduce the cost and schedule associated with the development of a mission- specific solar array. In the modular architecture, solar cells are fabricated onto small substrate panels. This modular panel (approximately 8.5" x 17" in this case) becomes the building block for constructing solar arrays for multiple missions with varying power requirements and geometrical arrangements. The mechanical framework that holds these modules together as a solar array is the only mission-unique design, changing in size and shape as required for each mission. There are several advantages to this approach. First, the typical solar array development cycle requires a mission unique design, procurement, and qualification including a custom qualification panel. With the modular architecture, a single qualification of the SMEX-Lite modules and the associated mechanical framework in a typical configuration provided a qualification by similarity to multiple missions. It then becomes possible to procure solar array modules in advance of mission definition and respond quickly and inexpensively to a selected mission's unique requirements. The solar array modular architecture allows the procurement of solar array modules before the array geometry has been frozen. This reduces the effect of procurement lead-time on the mission integration and test flow by as much as 50%. Second, by spreading the non-recurring costs over multiple missions, the cost per unit area is also reduced. In the case of the SMEX-Lite procurement, this reduction was by about one third of the cost per unit area compared to previous SMEX mission-unique procurements. Third, the modular architecture greatly facilitates the infusion of new solar cell technologies into flight programs as these technologies become available. New solar cell technologies need only be fabricated onto a standard-sized module to be incorporated into the next available mission. The modular solar array can be flown in a mixed configuration with some new and some standard cell technologies. Since each module has its own wiring terminals, the array can be arranged as desired electrically with little impact to cost and schedule. The solar array modular architecture does impose some additional constraints on systems and subsystem engineers. First, they must work with discrete solar array modules rather than size the array to fit exactly within an available envelope. The array area is constrained to an integer multiple of the module area. Second, the modular design is optimized for space radiation and thermal environments not greatly different from a typical SMEX LEO environment. For example, a mission with a highly elliptical orbit (e.g., Polar, SMEX/FAST) would require thicker coverglasses to protect the solar cells from the more intense radiation environment.

Lyons, John↗

DOE OSTI2024

Layered Double Hydroxide Derivatives for Polyolefin Upcycling

While Ru-catalyzed hydrogenolysis holds significant promise in converting waste polyolefins into value-added alkane fuels, a major constraint is the high cost of noble metal catalysts. Here, in this work, we propose, for the first time, that Co-based catalysts derived from CoAl-layered double hydroxide (LDH) are alternatives for efficient polyolefin hydrogenolysis. Leveraging the chemical flexibility of the LDH platform, we reveal that metallic Co species serve as highly efficient active sites for polyolefin hydrogenolysis. Furthermore, we introduced Ni into the Co framework to tackle the issue of restricted hydrogenation ability associated with contiguous Co-Co sites. In-situ analysis indicates that the integration of Ni induces electron transfer and facilitates hydrogen spillover. This dual effect synergistically enhances the hydrogenation/desorption of olefin intermediates, resulting in a significant reduction in the yield of low-value CH 4 from 27.1 to 12.6%. Through leveraging the unique properties of LDH, we have developed efficient and cost-effective catalysts for the sustainable recycling and valorization of waste polyolefin materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1991

Experiences at Langley Research Center in the application of optimization techniques to helicopter airframes for vibration reduction

A NASA/industry rotorcraft structural dynamics program known as Design Analysis Methods for VIBrationS (DAMVIBS) was initiated at Langley Research Center in 1984 with the objective of establishing the technology base needed by the industry for developing an advanced finite-element-based vibrations design analysis capability for airframe structures. As a part of the in-house activities contributing to that program, a study was undertaken to investigate the use of formal, nonlinear programming-based, numerical optimization techniques for airframe vibrations design work. Considerable progress has been made in connection with that study since its inception in 1985. This paper presents a unified summary of the experiences and results of that study. The formulation and solution of airframe optimization problems are discussed. Particular attention is given to describing the implementation of a new computational procedure based on MSC/NASTRAN and CONstrained function MINimization (CONMIN) in a computer program system called DYNOPT for the optimization of airframes subject to strength, frequency, dynamic response, and fatigue constraints. The results from the application of the DYNOPT program to the Bell AH-1G helicopter are presented and discussed.

Murthy, T. Sreekanta↗

NASA NTRS1991

Experiences at Langley Research Center in the application of optimization techniques to helicopter airframes for vibration reduction

Sreekanta Murthy, T.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Higgs production and decay in models of a warped extra dimension with a bulk Higgs

Warped extra-dimension models in which the Higgs boson is allowed to propagate in the bulk of a compact AdS 5 space are conjectured to be dual to models featuring a partially composite Higgs boson. They offer a framework with which to investigate the implications of changing the scaling dimension of the Higgs operator, which can be used to reduce the constraints from electroweak precision data. In the context of such models, we calculate the cross section for Higgs production in gluon fusion and the H → γγ decay rate and show that they are finite (at one-loop order) as a consequence of gauge invariance. The extended scalar sector comprising the Kaluza-Klein excitations of the Standard Model scalars is constructed in detail. The largest effects are due to virtual KK fermions, whose contributions to the cross section and decay rate introduce a quadratic sensitivity to the maximum allowed value y * of the random complex entries of the 5D anarchic Yukawa matrices. We find an enhancement of the gluon-fusion cross section and a reduction of the H → γγ rate as well as of the tree-level Higgs couplings to fermions and electroweak gauge bosons. As a result, we perform a detailed study of the correlated signal strengths for different production mechanisms and decay channels as functions of y * , the mass scale of Kaluza-Klein resonances and the scaling dimension of the composite Higgs operator.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microscale spatial distribution and soil organic matter persistence in top and subsoil

The spatial distribution of organic substrates and microscale soil heterogeneity significantly influence organic matter (OM) persistence as constraints on OM accessibility to microorganisms. However, it is unclear how changes in OM spatial heterogeneity driven by factors such as soil depth affect the relative importance of substrate spatial distribution on OM persistence. This work evaluated the decomposition and persistence of 13 C and 15 N labeled water-extractable OM inputs over 50 days as either hotspot (i.e., pelleted in 1–2 mm-size pieces) or distributed (i.e., added as OM < 0.07 μm suspended in water) forms in topsoil (0–0.2 m) and subsoil (0.8–0.9 m) samples of an Andisol. We observed greater persistence of added C in the subsoil with distributed OM inputs relative to hotspot OM, indicated by a 17% reduction in cumulative mineralization of the added C and a 10% higher conversion to mineral-associated OM. A lower substrate availability potentially reduced mineralization due to OM dispersion throughout the soil. NanoSIMS (nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry) analysis identified organo-mineral associations on cross-sectioned aggregate interiors in the subsoil. On the other hand, in the topsoil, we did not observe significant differences in the persistence of OM, suggesting that the large amounts of particulate OM already present in the soil outweighed the influence of added OM spatial distribution. Here, we demonstrated under laboratory conditions that the spatial distribution of fresh OM input alone significantly affected the decomposition and persistence of OM inputs in the subsoil. On the other hand, spatial distribution seems to play a lower role in topsoils rich in particulate OM. The divergence in the influence of OM spatial distribution between the top and subsoil is likely driven by differences in soil mineralogy and OM composition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Diverging polygon-based modeling (DPBM) of concentrated solar flux distributions

This paper presents an efficient and robust methodology for modeling concentrated solar flux distributions. Compared to ray tracing methods, which provide high accuracy but can be computationally intensive, this approach makes a number of simplifying assumptions in order to reduce complexity by modeling incident and reflected flux as a series of simple geometric diverging polygons, then applying shading and blocking effects. A reduction in processing time (as compared to ray tracing) allows for evaluating and visualizing numerous combinations of engineering and operational variables (easily exceeding 106 unique iterations) to ascertain instantaneous, transient, and annual system performance. The method is demonstrated on a linear Fresnel reflector array and a number of variable iteration examples presented. While some precision is sacrificed for computational speed, flux distributions were compared to ray tracing (SolTrace) and average concentration ratio generally found to agree within ~3%. Furthermore, this method presents a quick and very flexible coarse adjust method for concentrated solar power (CSP) field design, and can be used to both rapidly gain an understanding of system performance as well as to narrow variable constraint windows for follow-on high accuracy system optimization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Consumptive Water Use from Electricity Generation in the Southwest under Alternative Climate, Technology, and Policy Futures

This research assesses climate, technological, and policy impacts on consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest over a planning horizon of nearly a century. We employed an integrated modeling framework taking into account feedbacks between climate change, air temperature and humidity, and consequent power plant water requirements. These direct impacts of climate change on water consumption by 2095 differ with technology improvements, cooling systems, and policy constraints, ranging from a 3–7% increase over scenarios that do not incorporate ambient air impacts. Upon additional factors being changed that alter electricity generation, water consumption increases by up to 8% over the reference scenario by 2095. With high penetration of wet recirculating cooling, consumptive water required for low-carbon electricity generation via fossil fuels will likely exacerbate regional water pressure as droughts become more common and population increases. Adaptation strategies to lower water use include the use of advanced cooling technologies and greater dependence on solar and wind. Water consumption may be reduced by 50% in 2095 from the reference, requiring an increase in dry cooling shares to 35–40%. Alternatively, the same reduction could be achieved through photovoltaic and wind power generation constituting 60% of the grid, consistent with an increase of over 250% in technology learning rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Simultaneous numerical representation of soil microsite production and consumption of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide using probability distribution functions

Production and consumption of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are affected by complex interactions of temperature, moisture, and substrate supply, which are further complicated by spatial heterogeneity of the soil matrix. This microsite heterogeneity is often invoked to explain non-normal distributions of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, also known as hot spots and hot moments. To advance numerical simulation of these belowground processes, we expanded the Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis-Menten (DAMM) model, to apply it consistently for all three GHGs with respect to the biophysical processes of production, consumption, and diffusion within the soil, including the contrasting effects of oxygen (O 2 ) as substrate or inhibitor for each process. High-frequency chamber-based measurements of all three GHGs at the Howland Forest (ME, USA) were used to parameterize the model using a multiple constraint approach. The area under a soil chamber is partitioned according to a bivariate lognormal probability distribution function (PDF) of carbon (C) and water content across a range of microsites, which leads to a PDF of heterotrophic respiration and O 2 consumption among microsites. Linking microsite consumption of O 2 with a diffusion model generates a broad range of microsite concentrations of O 2 , which then determines the PDF of microsites that produce or consume CH 4 and N 2 O, such that a range of microsites occurs with both positive and negative signs for net CH 4 and N 2 O flux. Results demonstrate that it is numerically feasible for microsites of N 2 O reduction and CH 4 oxidation to co-occur under a single chamber, thus explaining occasional measurement of simultaneous uptake of both gases. Simultaneous simulation of all three GHGs in a parsimonious modeling framework is challenging, however it increases confidence that agreement between simulations and measurements is based on skillful numerical representation of processes across a heterogeneous environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Different Trajectory Option Set Participation Levels within an Air Traffic Management Collaborative Trajectory Option Program

This paper presents the methodology and results of a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) simulation study conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center. This study is a part of NASA's ongoing research into developing an Integrated Demand Management (IDM) concept, whose aim is to improve traffic flow management (TFM) by coordinating the FAA's strategic Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) with its more tactical Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system. The purpose of TFM is to regulate air traffic demand so that it is delivered efficiently through constrained airspace resources without exceeding their capacity limits. The IDM concept leverages a new TFMS capability called the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) to strategically pre-condition traffic demand flowing into a TBFM-managed arrival environment, where TBFM is responsible for managing traffic tactically by generating precise arrival schedules. Unlike other TFM tools, CTOP gives flight operators the option of submitting a set of user-preferred alternative trajectories for each flight. CTOP can then use these trajectory option sets (or TOSs) to find user-preferred alternative routes to reduce demand on an overloaded resource. CTOP's effectiveness in redistributing demand is limited, however, by the availability of flights with alternative routes. The research presented in this paper focuses on evaluating the impact on TFM operations by varying the percentage of flights that submit a multiple-option TOS ('TOS participation levels'). Results show the impact on overall system performance and on the rerouted flights themselves. The simulation used a Newark (EWR) airport arrival scenario, with en route weather affecting traffic inbound from the west. Participants were asked to control each of the three arrival flows (north, west, and south) to meet their individual capacity constraints while simultaneously ensuring efficient utilization of the capacity at the destination airport. A large, permeable convective weather cell located southeast of Chicago severely reduced the capacity of the west flow. The study evaluated the impact of five different TOS participation levels on CTOP's ability to re-allocate traffic from the west and improve TFM performance in terms of delay assignment and traffic delivery rate to the airport. Overall, the results showed that increasing TOS submissions allowed the overall system delays to be reduced and fairly distributed among the three arrival flows, at the same time achieving the airport throughput rate. Moreover, it was found that aircraft who submitted a TOS saw a greater reduction in delay, even when they were assigned longer routes. This was particularly true when fewer aircraft submitted a TOS. The results confirm that the CTOP operations with higher TOS participation levels helped utilize the overall National Airspace System (NAS) resources as well as benefited the users who participated.

Yoo, Hyo-Sang↗

DOE OSTI2019

Estimating PV power from aggregate power measurements within the distribution grid

The increased integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems in distribution grids reduces visibility and situational awareness for utilities because the PV systems' power production is usually not monitored by them. To address this problem, a method called Contextually Supervised Source Separation (CSSS) has been recently adapted for real-time estimation of aggregate PV active power generation from aggregate net active and reactive power measurements at a point in a radially configured distribution grid (e.g., substation). In its original version, PV disaggregation is formulated as an optimization problem that fits linear regression models for the aggregate PV active power generation and true substation active power load. This paper extends the previous work by adding regularization terms in the objective function to capture additional contextual information such as smoothness, by adding new constraints, by introducing new regressors such as ambient temperature, and by investigating the use of time-varying regressors. Furthermore, we perform extensive parametric analysis to study tuning of the objective function weighting factors in a way that maximizes performance and robustness. The proposed PV disaggregation method can be applied to networks with either a single PV system (e.g., megawatt scale) or many distributed ones (e.g., residential scale) connected downstream of the substation. Simulation studies with real field recorded data show that the enhancements of the proposed method reduce disaggregation error by 58% in winter and 35% in summer compared to previous CSSS-based work. When compared against a commonly used transposition model based approach, the reduction in disaggregation error is more pronounced (78% reduction in winter and 45% in summer). Additional simulations indicate that the proposed algorithm is also applicable for PV systems with time-varying power factors. In conclusion, overall, our results show that—with appropriate modeling and tuning—it is possible to accurately estimate the aggregated PV active power generation of a distribution feeder with minimal or no additional sensor deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

HostSub_GP: Precise Galaxy Background Subtraction in Transient Long-slit Spectroscopy with Gaussian Processes

We present a novel host galaxy subtraction technique in long-slit spectroscopy for extragalactic transients. Unlike classic methods which generally estimate the background using simple interpolation of local galaxy flux in the 2D spectrum, our approach leverages multi-band archival images of the host galaxies to model the background emission from the galaxy in the 2D spectrum. Such imaging encodes the wavelength-dependent galaxy profile along the slit, and is readily accessible through wide-field imaging surveys. We construct a smooth prior for the 2D galaxy profile with a Gaussian process (GP) based on these reference images, and use another GP to model the correlated deviations from the prior in the observed spectrum. This enables accurate inference of the galaxy flux blended with the transient. On synthetic long-slit data of a spiral galaxy extracted from a Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer hyper-spectral cube, the GP method remains robust as long as the host galaxy is spatially resolved and consistently outperforms classic methods. We apply the method to archival Keck spectra of two real transients, SN 2019eix and AT 2019qiz, to further demonstrate how the method uniquely recovers weak spectral features amid strong galaxy contamination, enabling refined constraints on the properties of both transients. We have released the software implementation, HostSub_GP, a scalable toolkit that leverages JAX, with an MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated Design-for-Reliability of a Power Electronics Module

The design of a power electronics module is a multiphysics problem and involves electrical, thermal, and reliability targets and constraints. Although the electrical and thermal design consider multiple aspects such as materials, geometry, and energy losses, reliability design is often limited to the selection of the attachment materials and electrical interconnect types. In this paper, we incorporate reliability metrics in the design phase by investigating the impact of package geometry on the thermomechanical behavior of the die-attachment material. To this end, we conducted thermal and power cycling simulations of a commercial six-pack power module with silicon carbide devices to compute junction temperature and strain energy density per cycle, respectively. We performed multiple simulations with different geometric dimensions and established a correlation between input features and output variables using subspace-based dimension reduction. The machine learning-based dimension reduction method serves as a surrogate model, which can be employed to identify the optimal module design from a thermal and reliability standpoint.

design-for-reliability↗

DOE OSTI2021

Embodied carbon in the U.S. manufacturing and trade

On average, one quarter of the global carbon footprint is embodied in traded goods. These emissions are a growing issue for global efforts to decarbonize the world economy. Embodied emissions in trade are not accounted for by existing greenhouse gas accounting systems. For example, countries only report their domestic carbon emissions (also known as production-based or territorial accounting) to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If the embodied carbon in trade were accounted for and reported, the promising climate trends depicted by many countries would be negated or reversed. For example, many achievements of reducing emissions by developed countries under the Kyoto Protocol would actually appear as emissions outsourced to developing countries. Like many other developed countries, the United States is a net importer of embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in trade. The goal of this study was to calculate the carbon footprint of various sectors of the U.S. economy using the latest available data and based on that, estimate the embodied carbon in certain manufacturing sector products imported and exported by the U.S. First, we conducted an input-output analysis to calculate the carbon footprint of 401 aggregate level sectors of the U.S. economy. After that, for a selected number of manufacturing subsectors /products(hereafter referred to as products),we collected their trade(import/export) data and combined that with their computed carbon footprint to estimate the embodied carbon in import and export of these products for the U.S. While we conducted the carbon footprint analysis for sectors covering the entire U.S. economy (401 sectors), we only conducted the embodied carbon in trade analysis for a few products within specific aggregate level manufacturing sectors,such as computer and electronic product manufacturing (NAICS 334), transport equipment manufacturing (NAICS 336), machinery manufacturing (NAICS 333), and chemical manufacturing (NAICS 325). It is possible to do the detailed embodied carbon analysis for all other products within the various aggregate level manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy, but given the scope of this study and space constraint of this report, we only present the results for a few products. The results of our analysis for the selected products show the embodied carbon in trade for each product by country and also show the rankings of countries in terms of top importers and exporters of embodied carbon in trade with the U.S. Our results show that in majority of cases, the U.S. is a net importer of embodied carbon in trade. Unless consumption-based accounting is used, the U.S. and other net embodied carbon importing countries may continue to outsource their emissions to meet their climate change mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, as observed previously with the Kyoto Protocol. Some countries reported reductions that exceeded their Kyoto targets, however, the changes in emissions embodied in imports were comparable to or larger than changes in domestic emissions. Traded emissions undermined emissions reductions in the Kyoto Protocol, and threaten to continue to do so for the Paris Agreement. New climate policies such as California’s Buy Clean act, EU’s proposed border carbon tax adjustment, as well as efforts in the private sector can help address the embodied carbon in traded products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗