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Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

Lai, Chung-Cheng A.↗

ENDF/B-VIII.1: Updated Nuclear Reaction Data Library for Science and Applications

The ENDF/B-VIII.1 library is the newest recommended evaluated nuclear data file by the Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG) for use in nuclear science and technology applications, and incorporates advances made in the six years since the release of ENDF/B-VIII.0. Among key advances made are that the 239 Pu file was reevaluated by a joint international effort and that updated 16,18 O, 19 F, 28–30 Si, 50–54 Cr, 55 Mn, 54,56,57 Fe, 63,65 Cu, 139 La, 233,235,238 U, and 240,241 Pu neutron nuclear data from the IAEA coordinated INDEN collaboration were adopted. Over 60 neutron dosimetry cross sections were adopted from the IAEA's IRDFF-II library. In addition, the new library includes significant changes for 3 He, 6 Li, 9 Be, 51 V, 88 Sr, 103 Rh, 140,142 Ce, Dy, 181 Ta, Pt, 206–208 Pb, and 234,236 U neutron data, and new nuclear data for the photonuclear, charged-particle and atomic sublibraries. Numerous thermal neutron scattering kernels were reevaluated or provided for the very first time. On the covariance side, work was undertaken to introduce better uncertainty quantification standards and testing for nuclear data covariances. The significant effort to reevaluate important nuclides has reduced bias in the simulations of many integral experiments with particular progress noted for fluorine, copper, and stainless steel containing benchmarks. Data issues hindered the successful deployment of the previous ENDF/B-VIII.0 for commercial nuclear power applications in high burnup situations. These issues were addressed by improving the 238 U and 239,240,241 Pu evaluated data in the resonance region. The new library performance as a function of burnup is similar to the reference ENDF/B-VII.1 library.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluation of Various Radar Data Quality Control Algorithms Based on Accumulated Radar Rainfall Statistics

The primary function of the TRMM Ground Validation (GV) Program is to create GV rainfall products that provide basic validation of satellite-derived precipitation measurements for select primary sites. A fundamental and extremely important step in creating high-quality GV products is radar data quality control. Quality control (QC) processing of TRMM GV radar data is based on some automated procedures, but the current QC algorithm is not fully operational and requires significant human interaction to assure satisfactory results. Moreover, the TRMM GV QC algorithm, even with continuous manual tuning, still can not completely remove all types of spurious echoes. In an attempt to improve the current operational radar data QC procedures of the TRMM GV effort, an intercomparison of several QC algorithms has been conducted. This presentation will demonstrate how various radar data QC algorithms affect accumulated radar rainfall products. In all, six different QC algorithms will be applied to two months of WSR-88D radar data from Melbourne, Florida. Daily, five-day, and monthly accumulated radar rainfall maps will be produced for each quality-controlled data set. The QC algorithms will be evaluated and compared based on their ability to remove spurious echoes without removing significant precipitation. Strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm will be assessed based on, their abilit to mitigate both erroneous additions and reductions in rainfall accumulation from spurious echo contamination and true precipitation removal, respectively. Contamination from individual spurious echo categories will be quantified to further diagnose the abilities of each radar QC algorithm. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis will be conducted to determine if a more automated QC algorithm is a viable alternative to the current, labor-intensive QC algorithm employed by TRMM GV.

Robinson, Michael↗

The NASA Scientific Data Purchase: Summary and Evaluation

This report summarizes the results of the NASA Scientific Data Purchase (SDP) program implemented by the Stennis Space Center Earth Science Application Directorate in fiscal years 1998-2002. The SDP was conducted in support of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) program (currently known as NASA's Earth Science Enterprise). This Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) provides major observational capabilities for NASA's Earth system science research and the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Observations supported through the SDP were selected based upon their application to the five science themes of the MTPE/ESE: 1) Land cover and land use change research; 2) Seasonal to interannual climate variability and prediction; 3) Natural hazards research and applications; 4) Long-term climate: Natural variability and change research; 5) Atmospheric ozone research. The MTPE/ESE science themes, although they have evolved over time, are driven by a set of key science questions that help focus the research program on characterizing the Earth system.

Source record↗

Resonance Parameter Evaluation of n + 88 Sr reactions for ENDF/B-VIII.1 Library

An evaluation of n+ 88 Sr reactions up to 950 keV was compiled from a publicly available set of resonance parameters. Starting from the repository of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library, an evaluated nuclear data file was assembled and submitted for inclusion to the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VIII.1 release. This evaluation features an external function representation defined by pole strengths and R ∞ parameters over the entire resolved resonance range. This work improves the modeling of the R-matrix parameterization from multi-Level Breit-Wigner resonance parameters to Reich-Moore formalism, and it also extends thrice the upper energy range of the current ENDF/B-VIII.0 resolved resonance evaluation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Statistical significance of the sterile-neutrino hypothesis in the context of reactor and gallium data

We evaluate the statistical significance of the 3+1 sterile-neutrino hypothesis using $v_e$ and $\bar{v}_e$ disappearance data from reactor, solar and gallium radioactive source experiments. Concerning the latter, we investigate the implications of the recent BEST results. For reactor data we focus on relative measurements independent of flux predictions. For the problem at hand, the usual χ 2 -approximation to hypothesis testing based on Wilks’ theorem has been shown in the literature to be inaccurate. We therefore present results based on Monte Carlo simulations, and find that this typically reduces the significance by roughly 1σ with respect to the naïve expectation. We find no significant indication in favor of sterile-neutrino oscillations from reactor data. On the other hand, gallium data (dominated by the BEST result) show more than 5σ of evidence supporting the sterile-neutrino hypothesis, favoring oscillation parameters in agreement with constraints from reactor data. This explanation is, however, in significant tension (~3 σ) with solar neutrino experiments. In order to assess the robustness of the signal for gallium experiments we present a discussion of the impact of cross-section uncertainties on the results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Consistent Evaluation of the Prompt-fission Neutron Spectrum and Multiplicity for n+ 235,238 U and n+ 239 Pu

This report was written to satisfy a FY20 NCSP milestone on 235,238 U and 239 Pu. The milestone requires to “finalize a report assessing our methodology to evaluate prompt-fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) and multiplicity consistently”. More specifically, we study whether the code CGMF can reproduce ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluated PFNS and average prompt-fission neutron multiplicities, $\bar{v}$, for 235,238 U and 239 Pu using one joint parameter set per isotope. If CGMF is shown to be able to reasonably reproduce ENDF/B-VIII.0 within its model-parameter space, this code could be used for future consistent evaluations of PFNS and $\bar{v}$. To answer this question, we explore here the parameter space of CGMF and its impact on calculated values and whether they are close to evaluated and experimental data. We also list experimental data that would enter a future evaluation and statistics method that could be used to obtain evaluated data and covariances. We conclude that values of $\bar{v}$ calculated by CGMF are reasonably close to ENDF/B-VIII.0 data, while more work on modeling the PFNS is needed (parameter optimization and model improvements) to reliably use it for evaluations.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Nuclear Data Sheets for A = 227

The evaluated spectroscopic data are presented for ten known nuclides of mass 227 (Po, At, Rn, Fr, Ra, Ac, Th, Pa, U, Np). For {sup 227}Po, {sup 227}At, {sup 227}Rn, {sup 227}Pa, {sup 227}U and {sup 227}Np nuclei, only the ground-state information is available. Their decay characteristics are mostly unknown. Levels in {sup 227}Fr are known only from the decay of {sup 227}Rn to {sup 227}Fr. This decay scheme at present cannot be normalized to deduce γ intensities per 100 decays due to lack of knowledge about multipolarities of many low-energy transitions. The levels in {sup 227}Ra, {sup 227}Ac and {sup 227}Th are known from several decays and reactions, including particle-transfer data for {sup 227}Ra and {sup 227}Ac. The decay scheme of {sup 227}Ra to {sup 227}Ac was last studied in 1971 using small Ge detectors. Improved γ-ray intensity data need to be obtained with a better γ-detection system. The datasets for {sup 227}Ac have undergone extensive revisions, including detailed data for 231Pa α decay from 1986BaYK report, and single-proton transfer data from 1986MaYU thesis. High-spin (J>13/2 or so) structures are known only for 227Th. Level lifetime data are quite scarce for all the nuclides in this mass chain, thus limiting the knowledge of reduced transition probabilities. Band structures for {sup 227}Fr, {sup 227}Ra, {sup 227}Ac and {sup 227}Th are known in detail, together with evidence of weak octupole deformation and consequent parity-doublet structures. This evaluation was carried out as part of a joint IAEA-ICTP workshop for Nuclear Structure and Decay Data, organized and hosted by the IAEA, Vienna and ICTP, Trieste, March 24–28, 2014. The evaluation work was coordinated by B. Singh (McMaster). This work supersedes previous A=227 evaluation (2001Br31) published by E. Browne which covered literature before May 2001.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Isotopic molybdenum total neutron cross section in the unresolved resonance region

Accurate isotopic molybdenum nuclear data are important because molybdenum can exist in nuclear reactor components including fuel, cladding, or as a high yield fission product. High-resolution time-of-flight neutron transmission measurements on highly enriched isotopic metallic samples of 95 Mo, 96 Mo, 98 Mo, and 100 Mo were performed in the resonance energy range from 1 to 620 keV. The measurements were taken with the newly developed modular 6 Li-glass transmission detector positioned at the 100-m experimental flight station. For the unresolved energy region (URR), new comprehensive methods of analysis were developed and validated in order to obtain accurate neutron total cross-section data from the measurement by correcting for background and transmission enhancement effects. Average parameters and fits to the total cross section for 95 Mo were obtained using the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model code FITACS, which is currently incorporated into the SAMMY code. Moreover, fits to the experimental data deviate from the current evaluated nuclear data file/B-VII.1 isotopic Mo evaluations by several percent in the URR.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Intrinsic value of the international benchmark projects, ICSBEP and IRPhEP, for advanced reactor development

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project, a sanctioned program under the auspices of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, has been a highly successful and productive collaboration, now encompassing over 5,000 evaluated experimental benchmarks trusted and relied upon throughout the international nuclear communities. The success of this project led to the development of the International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation Project, which is dedicated to the evaluation of benchmark experiment data to sustain current and future reactor physics validation needs. These exemplary programs, and their widely utilized handbooks, serve as gold standards to which other databases strive to emulate. The purpose of the two projects is to preserve modern and legacy experimental data and evaluate it in a standardized handbook format to provide quality benchmarks to support modern and future criticality safety and reactor physics validation. These two projects have often served as the mechanism through which historic and modern neutronics experiments are evaluated and shared across international borders, to best provide unique, high-quality peer-reviewed, and often otherwise unavailable, benchmark data. The contents of these handbooks are utilized not only in validating criticality safety, reactor physics, and advanced reactor calculations, but are used to validate neutronics calculations and nuclear data for most other nuclear applications. This paper discusses both international programs and available content to enable advanced reactor design validation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Edge discrimination as applied to Thematic Mapper data

An evaluation of suitable edge discrimination techniques and their application to image segmentation is reported. From an analysis of Thematic Mapper Simulator data, it is concluded that segmentation by automated edge discrimination is a valuable technique which can be used in the development of per-field classifiers. A Laplacian convolution operator appears to be the most cost-effective high-pass filter. Spatial frequency domain filtering is more versatile in its ability to enhance different edge types. A simple global gray value threshold can produce good edge discrimination from an enhanced image which may be improved by using a local thresholding technique. A gap-fill postprocessing technique is necessary for useful segmentation. Gradient and other directionally dependent techniques are unsuitable for segmentation.

Hall, J. R.↗

MANTA. An Integral Reactor Physics Experiment to Infer the Neutron Capture Cross Sections of Actinides and Fission Products in Fast and Epithermal Spectra

Neutron cross-sections characterize the way neutrons interact with matter. They are essential to most nuclear engineering projects and, even though theoretical progress has been made as far as the predictability of neutron cross-section models, measurements are still indispensable to meet tight design requirements for reduced uncertainties. Within the field of fission reactor technology, one can identify the following specializations that rely on the availability of accurate neutron cross-sections: (1) fission reactor design, (2) nuclear fuel cycles, (3) nuclear safety, (4) nuclear safeguards, (5) reactor monitoring and neutron fluence determination and (6) waste disposal and transmutation. In particular, the assessment of advanced fuel cycles requires an extensive knowledge of transuranics cross sections. Plutonium isotopes, but also americium, curium and up to californium isotope data are required with a small uncertainty in order to optimize significant features of the fuel cycle that have an impact on feasibility studies (e.g. neutron doses at fuel fabrication, decay heat in a repository, etc.). Different techniques are available to determine neutron cross sections experimentally, with the common denominator that a source of neutrons is necessary. It can either come from an accelerator that produces neutrons as a result of interactions between charged particles and a target, or it can come from a nuclear reactor. When the measurements are performed with an accelerator, they are referred to as differential since the analysis of the data provides the cross-sections for different discrete energies, i.e. σ(E i ), and for the diffusion cross sections for different discrete angles. Another approach is to irradiate a very pure sample in a test reactor such as the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL and, after a given time, determine the amount of the different transmutation products. The precise characterization of the nuclide densities before and after neutron irradiation allows to infer energy-integrated neutron cross sections, i.e. ∫₀ ∞ σ(E)φ(E)dE, where φ(E) is the neutron flux “seen” by the sample. This approach, which is usually defined and led by reactor physicists, is referred to as integral and is the object of this report. These two sources of information, i.e. differential and integral, are complementary and are used by the nuclear physicists in charge of producing the evaluated nuclear data files used by the nuclear community (ENDF, JEFF…). The generation of accurate nuclear data files requires an iterative process involving reactor physicists and nuclear data evaluators. This experimental program has been funded by the ATR National Scientific User Facility (ATR-NSUF) and by the DOE Office of Science in the framework of the Recovery Act. It has been given the name MANTRA for Measurement of Actinides Neutron TRAnsmutation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Resilience Metrics for Solar Photovoltaics

This workshop presentation proposes the development of solar photovoltaic (PV) system resilience metrics and a methodology and framework for evaluation of PV resilience metrics. PV resilience metrics are needed to establish a consistent basis for reporting, evaluation, and data collection by industry, evaluate performance of PV systems that have been subject to natural hazards, correlating resilience to system attributes, and predicting resilience for any PV system. PV resilience metrics can guide improved system design, standards, and insurance coverage. Establishing consistent metrics can foster data collection on impacts of natural hazards on PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Statistical Methods for Improved Evaluation of Environmental Sample Data quarterly FY18Q2

We will develop an enhanced statistical framework to evaluate environmental swipe samples collected at nuclear facilities with the goal of identifying anomalies associated with potential undeclared activities. Our approach will be based on Bayesian methodology and time series analysis. This overall framework should result in a more cost effective and operationally effective approach to environmental swipe sample analysis and interpretation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mapping of deciduous forest cover using simulated Landsat-D TM data

An evaluation is presented of the supervised vegetation classification images of heavily forested terrain in the eastern US produced from simulated Landsat-D Thematic Mapper data as part of the Joint NASA/Geosat Test Case study of the Lost River, West Virginia, gas field. This investigation utilized data supplied by the NS-001 aircraft multispectral scanner (15 m IFOV) of NASA. The instruments recognized a total of 9 vegetation classes and one soil class. A hybrid parallelepiped-Bayesian maximum likelihood classifier was employed to produce the supervised vegetation classifications. The data were obtained at the height of the fall foliage display for this portion of West Virginia. Results show that both classifications are highly accurate, based on a comparison of assignment of vegetation classes on each of the images with actual ground conditions. It is noted that the anomalous distribution of certain woody species found in the resulting supervised classifications may be related to the microseepage of methane from the gas reservoir.

Rock, B. N.↗