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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A new technique to retrieve aerosol vertical profiles using micropulse lidar and ground-based aerosol measurements

Accurately characterizing the vertical distribution of aerosols and their cloud-forming properties is crucial for understanding aerosol-cloud interactions and their impact on climate. This study presents a novel technique for retrieving vertical profiles of aerosols, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles (INP) by combining micropulse lidar, radiosonde, and ground-based aerosol measurements. Herein, the technique is applied to data collected by our team at Texas A&M University during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. Ground-based aerosol size distribution and CCN counter data are used to estimate the value of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, κ. The derived κ, together with Mie scattering theory and the relative humidity profile from the radiosonde, is used to estimate aerosol size growth and the associated increase in backscatter at each altitude. We then correct the lidar backscatter to dry conditions to produce the dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile. The dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile is linearly scaled to collocated surface measurements of aerosols, CCN, and INP to produce corresponding vertical profiles. Combining lidar backscatter profiles with aerosol and cloud nucleation measurements leads to a more realistic representation of vertical distributions of aerosol properties. The method could be readily applied to lidar measurements in future field campaigns.

Chen, Bo [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introducing the SLICE Method for estimating pebble-bed reactor inventories at equilibrium operation with SCALE

This paper introduces the SCALE Leap-In method for Cores at Equilibrium (SLICE) for estimating pebble-bed reactor equilibrium core isotopic inventories using capabilities in the SCALE code system, requiring only a small computational cluster and a few days of computation. This method uses an iterative approach that relies on (1) a surrogate spectrum model that captures spatial and time-dependent spectral conditions, (2) a multi-pass model that captures the pebble’s evolving nuclide inventory as a function of location and time in the core, and (3) a full-core model that captures the core’s spatial neutron flux distribution. The SLICE approach is applied to a generic fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor, demonstrating fuel inventory convergence through nuclide concentration inspection across iterations and comparisons for core realizations with varying discretizations. Results agree within ~5% with another state-of-the-art code, with differences attributed to input parameter or modeling assumption variations in the equilibrium generation methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tail Dependence as a Measure of Teleconnected Warm and Cold Extremes of North American Wintertime Temperatures

Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of 2-m surface air temperature ( T 2m ) in North America, where very low temperatures in the contiguous United States may coincide with very high temperatures in Alaska in the wintertime. This dependence between warm and cold extremes motivates the need for a model with opposite-tail dependence in spatial extremes. This work develops a statistical modeling framework that has flexible behavior in all four pairings of high and low extremes at pairs of locations. In particular, we use a mixture of rotations of common Archimedean copulas to capture various combinations of four-corner tail dependence. We study teleconnected T 2m extremes using ERA5 of daily average 2-m temperature during the boreal winter. Further, the estimated mixture model quantifies the strength of opposite-tail dependence between warm temperatures in Alaska and cold temperatures in the midlatitudes of North America, as well as the reverse pattern. These dependence patterns are shown to correspond to blocked and zonal patterns of midtropospheric flow. This analysis extends the classical notion of correlation-based teleconnections to considering dependence in higher quantiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-Based CAN IDS Paper Results Code

Modern vehicles are complex cyber-physical systems made of hundreds of electronic control units (ECUs) that communicate over controller area networks (CANs). This inherited complexity has expanded the CAN attack surface which is vulnerable to message injection attacks. These injections change the overall timing characteristics of messages on the bus, and thus, to detect these malicious messages, time-based intrusion detection systems (IDSs) have been proposed. However, time-based IDSs are usually trained and tested on low-fidelity datasets with unrealistic, labeled attacks. This makes difficult the task of evaluating, comparing, and validating IDSs. Here we detail and benchmark four time-based IDSs against the newly published ROAD dataset, the first open CAN IDS dataset with real (non-simulated) stealthy attacks with physically verified effects. We found that methods that perform hypothesis testing by explicitly estimating message timing distributions have lower performance than methods that seek anomalies in a distribution related statistic. In particular, these “distribution-agnostic” based methods outperform “distribution-based” methods by at least 55% in area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR). Our results expand the body of knowledge of CAN time-based IDSs by providing details of these methods and reporting their results when tested on datasets with real advanced attacks. Finally, we develop an after-market plug-in detector using lightweight hardware, which can be used to deploy the best performing IDS method on nearly any vehicle.

Moriano, Pablo [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oa↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Basin‐Scale Testing of Alternative Data‐Driven Approaches

Abstract Integrated hydrological modeling is an effective method for understanding interactions between parts of the hydrologic cycle, quantifying water resources, and furthering knowledge of hydrologic processes. However, these models are dependent on robust and accurate datasets that physically represent spatial characteristics as model inputs. This study evaluates multiple data‐driven approaches for estimating hydraulic conductivity and subsurface properties at the continental‐scale, constructed from existing subsurface dataset components. Each subsurface configuration represents upper (unconfined) hydrogeology, lower (confined) hydrogeology, and the presence of a vertical flow barrier. Configurations are tested in two large‐scale U.S. watersheds using an integrated model. Model results are compared to observed streamflow and steady state water table depth (WTD). We provide model results for a range of configurations and show that both WTD and surface water partitioning are important indicators of performance. We also show that geology data source, total subsurface depth, anisotropy, and inclusion of a vertical flow barrier are the most important considerations for subsurface configurations. While a range of configurations proved viable, we provide a recommended Selected National Configuration 1 km resolution subsurface dataset for use in distributed large‐and continental‐scale hydrologic modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Type Ia Supernova Distance Biases by Simulating Spectral Variations

In the next decade, transient searches from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will increase the sample of known Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from ~10 3 to 10 5 . With this reduction of statistical uncertainties on cosmological measurements, new methods are needed to reduce systematic uncertainties. Here, characterizing the underlying spectroscopic evolution of SN Ia remains a major systematic uncertainty in current cosmological analyses, motivating a new simulation tool for the next era of SN Ia cosmology: Build Your Own Spectral Energy Distribution (byosed). byosed is used within the SNANA framework to simulate light curves by applying spectral variations to model SEDs, enabling flexible testing of possible systematic shifts in SN Ia distance measurements. We test the framework by comparing a nominal Roman SN Ia survey simulation using a baseline SED model to simulations using SEDs perturbed with byosed, and investigating the impact of ignoring specific SED features in the analysis. These features include semiempirical models of two possible, predicted relationships: between SN ejecta velocity and light-curve observables, and a redshift-dependent relationship between SN Hubble residuals and host-galaxy mass. We analyze each byosed simulation using the SALT2 and BEAMS with Bias Corrections framework, and estimate changes in the measured value of the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, w. We find a difference of Δw = –0.023 for SN velocity and Δw = 0.021 for redshift-evolving host mass when compared to simulations without these features. By using byosed for SN Ia cosmology simulations, future analyses (e.g., the Rubin and Roman SN Ia samples) will have greater flexibility to constrain or reduce such SN Ia modeling uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-head physics-informed neural networks for learning functional priors and uncertainty quantification

In numerous applications, the integration of prior knowledge and historical information is essential, particularly for tasks requiring the solution of ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) in data-sparse or noisy environments. For instance, achieving accurate solutions to time-dependent PDEs with limited initial condition measurements necessitates an effective strategy for embedding prior knowledge. Hard-parameter sharing architectures in neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated success in both traditional and scientific machine learning domains, facilitating the learning of informative representations. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel, yet efficient, method to enhance physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) by incorporating a multi-head structure that enables the learning of functional priors from both empirical data and governing physical laws. This prior information can then be used to address data sparsity and high-level noise in solving ODE/PDE problems with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The approach, termed Multi-Head PINN (MH-PINN), consists of a shared body NN and multiple head NNs, each corresponding to an individual PINN instance. Our framework for functional prior learning is carried out in two stages: (1) training the MH-PINNs to develop a shared body NN alongside multiple head NNs, and (2) employing these trained head NNs to estimate a prior distribution through a normalizing flow-based density estimator. The learned functional prior can then be applied as a regularization mechanism in deterministic contexts or as an informative prior within a Bayesian inference framework, aiding in the resolution of subsequent ODE/PDE tasks. We evaluate the efficacy of MH-PINNs across five benchmark problems, including a high-dimensional parametric PDE, all characterized by data sparsity or substantial noise levels. Our findings reveal that MH-PINNs deliver accurate solutions and robust UQ, demonstrating adaptability across a range of complex and challenging scenarios.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2019

Load Flexibility Analysis of Residential HVAC and Water Heating and Commercial Refrigeration

The emergence of connected devices and the Internet of Things has opened the door to the concept of widespread use of building equipment for load-side flexibility. This stems from the increased use of distributed and clean energy resources for electric generation and the growing demand for a more resilient and reliable grid. A significant challenge associated with the use of building equipment as a distributed energy resource is quantifying the magnitude of power or energy flexibility. Unlike batteries that have well-defined and relatively constant capacity and maximum charge/discharge rates, building equipment often has characteristics that vary based on external factors (e.g., weather or occupant behavior). This makes quantifying the availability and flexibility of these resources difficult. Controlling a fleet of equipment while minimizing any adverse impacts to the occupants (e.g., discomfort or food spoilage) is a nontrivial matter. Although there are many different control methodologies available, this study focuses on two: priority-based control (PBC) and model-predictive control (MPC). These were selected because they represent two ends of the control spectrum. PBC is a relatively simple control strategy that requires only the current state of the devices to be controlled and an estimate of how much power each device consumes when turned on. MPC is much more complex and requires a model of the system and forecasts of any disturbances that influence the system. Because MPC has a predictive element, it can prepare for a desired response before the event and therefore is expected to provide a more optimal control relative to PBC. Both MPC and PBC are compared with a baseline simulation that uses feedback control typical of the thermostatically controlled devices being evaluated. This report investigates the load flexibility of three building systems: residential air conditioners, residential water heaters, and commercial refrigeration. Air heating and cooling and water heating account for 45% of residential electricity use, making them good candidates for providing load flexibility. Refrigeration in commercial buildings accounts for 16% of commercial building electricity use, making it another good candidate. Simplified models of each system were generated and validated based on measured data from actual equipment. These models were used to simulate the thermal and power response of the systems using PBC and MPC for a fleet of devices trying to achieve a variety of different responses, including hourly load shed, hourly load up, and daily peak demand reduction. Significant findings from each piece of equipment follow.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

SimLBR: Learning to Detect Fake Images by Learning to Detect Real Images

The rapid advancement of generative models has made the detection of AI-generated images a critical challenge for both research and society. Recent works have shown that most state-of-the-art fake image detection methods overfit to their training data and catastrophically fail when evaluated on curated hard test sets with strong distribution shifts. In this work, we argue that it is more principled to learn a tight decision boundary around the real image distribution and treat the fake category as a sink class. To this end, we propose SimLBR, a simple and efficient framework for fake image detection with Latent Blending Regularization (LBR). Our method significantly improves cross-generator generalization, achieving up to +24.85% accuracy and +69.62% recall on the challenging Chameleon benchmark. SimLBR is also highly efficient, training orders of magnitude faster than existing approaches. Furthermore, we emphasize the need for reliability-oriented evaluation in fake image detection, introducing risk-adjusted metrics and worst-case estimates to better assess model robustness. All the code and models are availabe at: https://github.com/mvrl/SimLBR

Dhakal, Aayush [Washington University, St. Louis]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies: Methods and Results from the Haynesville, Anadarko, and Permian Basins

Significantly reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector can decrease the rate of climate change over the next two decades, buying critical time for a global energy transition. However, emissions inventories that can be used by oil and gas operators and environmental regulators to identify optimal methane emission mitigation strategies are either based on conservative emission factor methods, or are inconsistent between studies due to differences in sampling strategies or survey technologies. We developed a new approach for methane emissions survey design that yields representative basinwide methane emissions inventories by surveying a subset of total assets in a given oil and gas basin. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions that can be reconciled with future studies. We further present results from deploying this strategy in two oil and gas producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma. Aerial surveys were performed in 2023 using the Insight M LeakSurveyor™ technology. Preliminary results from methane emissions detected by Insight M indicate that aerially detected emissions above roughly 30 kg(CH4)/hr by themselves contribute a fractional loss rate of 1.13% of gross gas production across oil and gas operations in the Haynesville Basin, with aerially detected emissions equivalent to 2.67% of gross gas production in the Woodford Shale. We supplement these aerial estimates with modeled emissions that are below the LeakSurveyor’s survey sensitivity using a recently published inventory-based model of methane emissions, which we update for our survey areas. We then combine our aerial detections with modeled emissions to yield methane emission distributions and inventories that incorporate the full range of potential methane emissions from the smallest to the largest. These results can be used to identify the most effective methane mitigation strategies for our study areas, and can be reconciled with future methane emissions surveys that use different technologies.

Sherwin, Evan (ORCID:0000000321804297)↗
DOE OSTI2021

The development of rainfall retrievals from radar at Darwin

Abstract. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Tropical Western Pacific site hosted a C-band polarization (CPOL) radar in Darwin, Australia. It provides 2 decades of tropical rainfall characteristics useful for validating global circulation models. Rainfall retrievals from radar assume characteristics about the droplet size distribution (DSD) that vary significantly. To minimize the uncertainty associated with DSD variability, new radar rainfall techniques use dual polarization and specific attenuation estimates. This study challenges the applicability of several specific attenuation and dual-polarization-based rainfall estimators in tropical settings using a 4-year archive of Darwin disdrometer datasets in conjunction with CPOL observations. This assessment is based on three metrics: statistical uncertainty estimates, principal component analysis (PCA), and comparisons of various retrievals from CPOL data. The PCA shows that the variability in R can be consistently attributed to reflectivity, but dependence on dual-polarization quantities was wavelength dependent for 1 10mmh-1. Rainfall estimates during these conditions primarily originate from deep convective clouds with median drop diameters greater than 1.5 mm. An uncertainty analysis and intercomparison with CPOL show that a Colorado State University blended technique for tropical oceans, with modified estimators developed from video disdrometer observations, is most appropriate for use in all cases, such as when 1 10mmh-1 (deeper convective rain).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A novel occupancy detection solution using low-power IR-FPA based wireless occupancy sensor

Significant energy savings can be achieved by operating heating, ventilation, and air conditioning control systems with indoor occupancy measurement information. This paper presents a novel plug-and-play occupancy sensing method which will enable temporal minimization of building energy consumption to meet building usage behavior without privacy concerns. The proposed wireless occupancy sensing platform is based on long-wave infra-red (LWIR) focal-plane arrays (FPAs), or thermal imagers, that detect thermal energy rather than visible light. We developed an advanced sensor package consisting of multiple thermal imagers with low-cost optical enhancements to increase field of view and increase sensitivity to occupant detection (filtering building clutter). These imagers can be coupled with radio frequency and ultrasonic-based radar to enhance data collection at key occupant zone boundaries to improve accuracy. Standard filtering and estimation techniques from the image processing and computer vision communities are introduced to overcome the accuracy issues suffered by traditional PIR based sensing, especially when occupants remain relatively still. Accurate low-level counting of individuals can be achieved with minimal impact on privacy. As a result, the proposed occupancy detection method can work as a retrofit to enable real-time understanding of the building operational state and usage behavior. Sensor data obtained from real test building zones was used to test the efficacy of the method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vegetation biogeography is a main source of uncertainty in modelling the land carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere exchanges a large amount of CO 2 with the atmosphere through photosynthesis and respiration, determining the magnitude of land carbon sink and consequently influencing the rate of global warming. The magnitudes of global photosynthesis and respiration, however, vary widely across models (100-200 PgC/year), constituting a key and persistent source of uncertainty in carbon cycle and climate modelling. Here, we argue that the uncertainty in the land carbon cycle modelling is largely attributable to the uncertainty in biogeography – the distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). Using an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), we find a strong dependence of total photosynthesis on total area for each PFT. The dependence allows us to reduce the spread of land carbon cycle estimates by ~75% using remote sensing-based PFT maps. We further find that 56 ± 21% of climate-driven changes in global photosynthesis modelled by DGVMs are caused by changes in PFT distribution in the last two decades. Our study identifies vegetation biogeography as a main controlling factor of uncertainty in land carbon cycle modelling and highlights the importance of biogeography-climate interactions in carbon cycle and climate studies.

Zhao, Ruiying [National Univ. of Singapore (Singap↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking greenhouse gas emissions from US wastewater treatment for targeted reduction

Here, in this study, to assess the national climate impact of wastewater treatment and inform decarbonization, we assembled a comprehensive greenhouse gas inventory of 15,863 facilities in the contiguous USA. Considering location and treatment configurations, we modelled on-site CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 production and emissions associated with energy, chemical inputs and solids disposal. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated median national emissions at 47 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year, with on-site process CH 4 and N 2 O emissions exceeding current government estimates by 41%. Treatment configurations with anaerobic digesters are responsible for 16 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent per year of fugitive methane, outweighing benefits achieved through on-site electricity generation. Systems designed for nutrient removal have the highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity, attributable to energy requirements and N 2 O production, demonstrating current trade-offs between meeting water quality and climate objectives. We analysed key sensitivities and included a geospatial analysis to highlight the scale and distribution of opportunities for reducing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cyber Attack Resilient HVDC System (CARDS) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report summarizes the activities conducted under the DOE-OE funded project DE-OE0000824, where ABB Inc. (ABB), in collaboration with University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Argonne National Laboratories (ANL), and University of Idaho (UI) pursued the development of a system of defense for High Voltage Direct Current transmission systems against cyber-attacks (CARDS). An HVDC substation with CARDS features will be more capable of mitigating cyber-attacks especially those that seek to control or interrupt the power flow in the HVDC line. It empowers existing HVDC intelligent electronic devices to collaborate in identifying and blocking malicious intents to trip HVDC AC circuit breakers, block thyristor valves, misconfigure devices settings, even though the commands and the measurements comply with correct syntax. The CARDS functions utilize the physics of electromagnetic AC and DC systems, electric power engineering principles, and state estimation to bring more in-depth cyber defense closer to the protected HVDC substation devices. With the aim of advancing the state of the art, the team proceeded to develop a demonstrable system against cyber-attacks in an HVDC substation environment, via functional upgrades to existing firmware of commercial off-the-shelf HVDC station devices, and/or embedded hardware, without the need for additional instrumentation nor new instrumentation technologies. It is to ensure that the solutions resulting from the project will support the HVDC devices currently installed in the US electricity delivery infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Nature and State of Groundwater Contamination at the Nevada National Security Site: What Have We Learned from Decades of Groundwater Analysis? - 20337

The regulatory framework for remediating radionuclide contamination from underground nuclear testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) is based on a combination of characterization and modeling studies, monitoring, and institutional controls [1]. Currently, tritium is the largest contributor (∼90%) to the estimated 44.6 million-curie radionuclide inventory resulting from underground testing [2]. Because of its short half-life (12.32 years), its relative contribution reduces below 10% of the total radiologic inventory over the next 120 years as a result of radioactive decay. Although tritium levels are observed well above the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) in groundwater, other radionuclides are well below their MCLs except within the nuclear test near-field (nuclear test cavity and chimney) environment. In fact, most device-derived radionuclides are below their MCL in groundwater even in samples collected from this near-field environment. The distribution of radionuclides following the nuclear detonation greatly influences the availability of potential contaminants for groundwater transport. Tritium is initially distributed in the gas phase, later as tritiated water in steam, and finally as liquid water, and is available to groundwater transport away from the near-field environment. Other radionuclides that are mobile in groundwater are {sup 14}C, {sup 36}Cl, {sup 99}Tc, and {sup 129}I though their radiologic inventory is small when compared to tritium. Many radionuclides (e.g. U, Pu, Am) are incorporated to a significant extent into the melt glass at the bottom of the cavity and are accessible to groundwater primarily through the slow process of glass dissolution. These radionuclides are also adsorbed to the surfaces of the crushed rock within the cavity and chimney which limits their migration in groundwater. Although colloid facilitated transport of radionuclides at the NNSS has been observed [3], radionuclide concentrations decrease with time and migration distances due to desorption and colloid filtration processes. Current studies indicate that radionuclides associated with colloids are unlikely to migrate downgradient from NNSS underground nuclear tests at concentrations above the SDWA MCL [4][5]. The results of over 50 years of sampling, along with an understanding of these post detonation processes, indicate that tritium is the only contaminant of concern downgradient of testing and that even tritium will not exceed its MCL in groundwater after ∼120 years. Although other longer-lived radionuclides may continue to be released slowly from the near-field environment they will likely never reach levels exceeding their MCLs in groundwater downgradient of the NNSS. Groundwater monitoring will continue to verify these observations. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗