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DOE OSTI2018

A Stratigraphic Approach to Characterize the Deposition and Storage of Organic Matter in Reservoir Sediments.

The relationship between carbon burial and sedimentation in reservoirs is unknown, exposing gaps in our fundamental understanding of the transport, processing, and deposition of sediment and organic matter in fluvial and lacustrine systems and contributing to uncertainty in our understanding of the net impact of dams to the global carbon budget. The 2011-2014 removal of two large dams on the Elwha River, Washington State, the largest dam removal yet completed globally, created extensive cutbank exposures of reservoir sediments, allowing the first characterization of the facies architecture of sediments through direct observation in reservoirs worldwide and providing an unparalleled opportunity to 1) assess the relationship between environmental influences, such as and changes in sediment supply, and their expression in the stratigraphic record, 2) assess the relationship between sedimentation processes and detrital organic carbon deposition and storage, and the importance of coarse-grained organic matter and woody debris to the total carbon budget of a reservoir, and 3) apply the insight gained from these reservoirs to evaluate current global estimates of carbon storage in reservoirs and develop a conceptual model of carbon burial in reservoirs to guide further research, as defined by characteristic stratigraphic “types”. Former Lake Mills, the younger, upstream reservoir, was characterized by a tripartite, subaerial Gilbert-style delta which prograded >1 km into the main reservoir from 1927 to 2011. Sediments were composed of coarse-grained topset beds, steeply dipping foreset beds, and a fine-grained, gently dipping prodelta. While individual event horizons were discernible in fine-grained sediments of former Lake Mills, their number and spacing did not correspond to known drawdown or flood events. Former Lake Aldwell, impounded from 1913 to 2011, was initially defined by the rapid progradation of a Gilbert-style, subaerial delta prior to the upstream completion of Glines Canyon Dam. However, the 1927 closure of Glines Canyon Dam upstream caused the delta to evolve to a fine-grained, mouth-bar type delta indicative of low, finer-grained sediment. This evolution, combined with a previously-unrecognized landslide deposit into the upper delta plain, suggests that understanding the exogenic influences on reservoir sedimentation is critical to interpretation and prediction of the sedimentation within individual systems. Former Lake Mills accumulated ~330 Gg of, with depositional-zone average accumulation rates from 229 to 9262 gCm -2 yr -1 , while Former Lake Aldwell accumulated ~ 91 Gg (263 to 2414 gCm -2 yr -1 ). Carbon storage in both reservoirs was dominated by heterogeneous, coarse organic matter and woody debris in the coarse-grained delta slope and relatively coarse-grained prodelta regions of the reservoirs, with little storage in the gravel-dominated, subaerial delta plains. Carbon accumulation in fine-grained lacustrine and prodelta sediments was relatively homogeneous, but turbidity flows from the Gilbert-style delta slope in former Lake Mills delivered significantly more carbon to the prodelta than the mouth-bar style delta of former Lake Aldwell. C:N ratios support interpretation of most organic matter in both reservoirs as allochthonous. Sampling schemes based only on lacustrine and/or prodelta would underestimate of total carbon accumulation by up to 30% in former Lake Aldwell, but the overestimate by up to 47% in former Lake Mills. Global estimates of carbon sequestration rates in reservoir sediments vary by three orders of magnitude, while individual-reservoir estimates vary by four orders of magnitude and over only 37 reservoirs and a literature review of predictive variables suggests weak or contradictory relationships. A conceptual stratigraphic framework of four unique reservoir types suggests that organic matter deposition is intrinsically tied to sedimentation processes and that patterns of carbon storage vary systematically with the stratigraphy of reservoir sediments. Deltaically-dominated reservoirs (whether Gilbert style or shoalwater) appear to store most carbon in their deltaic and prodelta regions, while thalweg-style reservoirs exhibit a bimodal distribution, with allochthonous carbon preferentially routed along the former river thalweg and autochthonous deposited on the former floodplain. Lacustrine-style reservoirs are dominated by suspended sediment deposition and thus relatively homogeneous, but literature suggests these reservoirs are more variable than typically measured. Current methods of reservoir sampling fail to account for this systematic variation and tend to be biased toward fine sediment, suggesting that global reservoir carbon storage is underestimated.

Stratton, Laurel↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Multimodal Nondestructive Dry Cask Basket Structure and Spent Fuel Evaluation

This NEUP-IRP assembled a team from diverse institutions and a diverse set of expertise to examine the problem of assessing the structural health of dry nuclear fuel storage casks, specifically the TN-32 design. With no physical access designed into these storage casks and the high cost and risk associated with opening casks for direct inspection, the technical difficulty of structural assessment of the basket structure and fuel assemblies is high. In response to this challenge, this IRP brought together experts in both traditional and novel NDE methodologies: active acoustics (University of Mississippi), emissions tomography (University of Florida), muon tomography (Oregon State University), and passive-active ultrasonics (University of South Carolina). Further, our industry partners in the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and AREVA provided invaluable insight into technical design details for the cask, practical knowledge of operating parameters at a storage facility, and key relationships that enabled activities unforeseen at the time of the proposed work but were critical in guiding the path of the research. The team decided early in the project that we had a collective goal of laying the technical ground work for practical solutions that could be implemented in the field with reasonable cost, time, and reliability. A fortunate opportunity arose early in this IRP project to obtain access to a new TN-32 cask at Columbiana High Tech. Both acoustics teams were given access for testing concepts in the first year of the project. This ended up providing critical guidance in the design of subsequent laboratory experiments. Specifically, it became clear that the only reliable acoustic pathways to the interior were through the trunnions, base plate, and top ring of the cask. Based on these field tests and discussions about what would be of practical interest, the team as a whole decided a realistic goal was to detect catastrophic failure of a single fuel assembly, or one that was missing. It is clear from this work that the active acoustics / resonance and muon tomography methodologies would be capable of detecting interior structural integrity problems at this level. The other two areas of investigation (emissions tomography and passive/active ultrasonics) would need more testing to determine a successful implementation, but each may also have other applications such as long term monitoring and monitoring during transportation. This IRP project resulted in technical advances with applications that extend beyond the problem at hand, supported the training of 10 graduate students + 1 post doc, 21 publications, and 13 conference presentations. The remainder of this summary highlights significant activities and achievements in each of the methodologies and a brief discussion on how they can be combined to leverage strengths. Active Acoustics The active acoustics team at UM used both linear and non-linear structural resonance methods to infer information about the internal structure of a cask. Significant activities were a set of four field test measurements on a full scale TN-32 cask at the Columbiana Hi Tech facility in Greensboro, NC and the design and fabrication of a 1/6th scale model TN-32 cask for laboratory measurements. A significant set of acoustic data has been acquired on both the full scale and laboratory scale casks. It was determined early in the project that mechanical resonance techniques were not going to be sensitive to small scale (centimeter) cracks and structural defects in the basket structure or fuel assemblies. We were able to ascertain that both the energy and complexity of the resonance spectra were sensitive to “bulk state” of the fuel assemblies – an intact assembly versus a severely degraded assembly. By developing a novel combination of metrics, we are able to measure a statistically significant shift due to one out of the 32 fuel assemblies being either missing or degraded to a point of complete loss of structural coherence (i.e. “rubble”). We believe this combination of resonance metrics is new to the field and will have applications beyond the fuel storage problem. Emissions Tomography The Emissions Tomography team at the University of Florida explored the concept of using scattering of radiation emissions from the stored fuel as method of evaluating the internal structural health of the cask. Due to the need for emissive fuel assemblies and the difficulties of gaining access to storage facilities, this team primarily relied on simulations to inform feasibility. A key question was the flux estimates of neutrons with a small enough number of scattering events to retain spatial information. Some key conclusions from the transmission component of this work are that the number of scattering events falls rapidly with energy – setting a 11MeV threshold, the average number of scattering events is 8∓4. Rough estimates of scanning times using an ideal detector array would be 1 week. The team also explored the case of significant structural failure resulting in a shift of the source material (fuel). The result is that a +/- 2% mass shift results in a detectable (5.13%) shift in the correlated 2 neutron emission counts and thus may be a candidate as an initial survey. Finally, simulations for predicting the azimuthal dependence of the flux based on specific loading patterns were conducted. Due to self-shielding effects of the assemblies, a periodic pattern results and could potentially be used to identify missing or severely degraded assemblies. This work forms a basis for proper detector placement with the goal of optimizing sensitivity. Muon Tomography Muon tomography (MT) is a relatively novel method of interrogating interior structure on a large scale. One of the advantages of this technique is that the exciting energy source (cosmic muons) is ubiquitous and relatively stable in time. Challenging aspects are relatively low flux rates and appropriate detector technologies. The efforts of the muon group at Oregon State University focused on two areas: (1) simulation of various combinations of muon scattering events and detection schemes to assess sensitivities and time scales for image construction and (2) building a prototype muon detection system applicable to the dry storage cask problem as well as many other similar systems. Significant accomplishments in this area are: (1) demonstration that MT is a viable method for detecting missing or severely degraded rod assemblies, (2) a scintillation based detector with 4 panels and 32 channels of position data each were constructed, tested, and calibrated. Testing of the panels using natural muon background and no scattering objects yielded largely expected results – a straight line path for the muon through the four panels. However some anomalies (paths deviating from a line) were also detected. A redesign of the board improved the signal which greatly improved the muon tracking through the panels. Testing with lead bricks as scattering bodies showed a reduction in the coincidence rate with increasing bricks indicating increased scattering events. A refinement of the scintillator detector design resulted in a spatial image resolution of around 2 cm based on lead brick spacing tests lasting 24 hours. Passive/Active Ultrasonics This team at the University of South Carolina investigated the feasibility of combining passive ultrasonics, in which an elastic pulse is generated by a degradation process (such as a crack extending), and active ultrasonics, in which a known excitation is introduced into the structure and detected by an array of transducers. Significant accomplishments in this area include the development of elastic wave propagation simulation in relevant materials, development of diagnostic algorithms, and laboratory testing and validation using laser doppler vibrometry. This group demonstrated the applicability of various non-contact vibration detection methodologies such as air-coupled ultrasonic transducers and scanning laser doppler vibrometry. While passive acoustic emissions monitoring will likely have a role during the transportation of a fuel storage cask, the level of detailed information about the defect generating the event which can be ascertained from the detections in a complex structure remains for future work. Thermography The EPRI team contributed early in the project a series of thermography measurements in which various levels of water pooled in a mock-up canister were analyzed using commercially available infrared imaging technologies. While large levels of water (100 L, ~10 cm deep) were observable in the thermograms, more realistic levels of pooled water (1 L) were not detectable whether localized or distributed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring Airspace Complexity and Determining Contributing Factors

The national airspace has evolved over many years to accommodate increased traffic demand [1] while simultaneously maintaining one of the safest forms of transportation [2], [3]. One of the reasons for this success is the ability of the system and the operators to adapt and accommodate to situations that routinely disrupt optimal operations. These situations may include: adverse weather, delays, early arrivals, equipment outages, and other factors that are outside the operators ability to control. These factors can lead to states where automation is unable to properly handle these issues and therefore air traffic controllers and pilots have to intervene, ultimately increasing communication between operators resulting in higher workload. As controller workload increases to handle sub-optimal operating conditions this can be viewed as an increase in complexity. The reasoning for this is because humans are now required to make tactical decisions in response to external factors, resulting in a departure from the strategic plan where operations would be more efficiently managed. Human operators control airspace complexity under rigid regulations that are constantly changing. The airspace is divided into sectors and the number of aircraft assigned to each controller is limited for safe handling. There has been past work that devised airspace complexity metrics in commercial aviation and related these metrics to controller workload (e.g., [4],[5]). The upper bounds on the system load are pre-determined. Such bounds on complexity make for a safe system, but the system cannot scale and adapt to autonomous, dense, and heterogeneous traffic, including the many types of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) envisioned to be added to the operations. We hypothesize that, as traffic density and heterogeneity grow, and other key metrics change, there will be phase transitions at which the way traffic should be managed changes significantly [6]. We offer a method for in-time detection of contributing factors that lead to phase transitions, characterized by increased complexity. To the best of our knowledge, there is no tool similar to our proposed effort that identifies such contributing factors or precursor patterns. To define the scope we are proposing to measure complexity from the viewpoint of the Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities (TRACON) controller’s perspective. In particular we are analyzing arrivals into KSFO. With safety as the top concern for airspace operators, it is important to recognize that as density and heterogeneity grow, the focus of the system will change. Times of the day when the airspace has low density and heterogeneity, the flights will follow more efficient paths where the aircraft move on established routes that are more or less directly to the destination. However, when density and heterogeneity increases, the system will begin changing focus to avoiding conflicts and collisions and route the flights in a more flexible way. Higher flexibility requires more communication and coordination between controllers and pilots which the current automation is unable to handle. This paper proposes a novel approach that monitors airspace complexity at multiple scales, uses a Machine Learning-based tool that predicts when operations will transition to a regime of greater complexity, and identifies actions that can reduce the complexity while still maintaining efficient and safe operations. We demonstrate our proposed approach using data from multiple complementary sources. This includes, but is not limited to: historical aircraft surveillance data from NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse [7], METAR weather data, and airport configuration data from Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM). The surveillance data flight paths are sampled at a variable sample rate — increasing as the aircraft approaches the airport. This is due to how Sherlock manages flight track stitching between different radar facilities which have different sampling rates. The weather and performance data are logged at defined intervals throughout the day at a courser refresh rate. In addition to the logged data and metrics, we leverage pre-defined Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs) procedures to characterize the path of each flight. Each flight files for one of these routes in the flight plan well before entering the terminal airspace, and approximately follows the route until it leaves the STAR, typically on the final fix of a runway transition. However, most flights do not always fly the full STAR procedure to completion [8], but the majority do adhere to the fixes within the common route of the procedure. Our approach leverages fixes in the common route of each of the STARs to build a reference path to the airport. This allows us to characterize the flight paths in what we are defining as the “maneuvering area” (the airspace between the STAR and before the flight is lined up on the runway’s final approach) to determine how off nominal the flights are to calculate its complexity score. Determining airspace complexity is a concept that does not have a concrete answer. In designing this metric, we consider what increases the workload for the air traffic controllers. Consequently more specialized vectoring maneuvers results in higher workload. Accordingly, we start with a theory: each flight has a direct path it takes from the STAR’s common route to the final approach’s outer marker fix for the flight’s landing runway. It is important to note that the direct path is only used as a reference. If the majority of the flights have a large consistent offset as compared to other routes it does not necessarily mean that those flights have higher complexity. We are merely building a distribution based on this direct path for that particular STAR and runway pair to determine the normal mode of operations for that route. Flights that are in the upper tail of these distributions will result in higher complexity scores and flights that fly in the median will represent the normal mode of operations and therefore will have lower complexity scores. Since flights following each STAR route take different paths to the airport, we have a different distribution for each STAR route and therefore can model these distributions to compute a complexity score from their respective normalized distributions. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed airspace complexity metric we will compare against an established approach based on trajectory clustering [9]. This unsupervised learning technique consists of the following steps: (1) identify the general maneuvering areas (waypoints) by performing $\kappa$-means or DBSCAN clustering on locations where aircraft frequently turn based on the surveillance radar track data, (2) map flight trajectories onto sequences of waypoints, and (3) cluster the sequences based on their common subsequences. From a high-level perspective, this baseline model learns nominal operations in the airspace through the sequence of waypoints that are representative of where aircraft change direction and defines deviations from the nominal operations as “complex.” Therefore, more deviations from the nominal operations correspond to higher complexity values. For our validation, we re-implemented this technique and tune model hyper-parameters to correctly detect waypoints for the arrival traffic into the San Francisco bay area. We will compute the complexity measure over a one-year period using our proposed technique as well as the baseline. Our validation will be based on each technique’s ability to detect a set of undesirable outcomes (e.g., go-arounds, holding patterns, average time in the airspace, etc.). Since our current complexity metric is derived from the offset from the direct reference path, it’s important to understand what causes these offsets. In many of the flights with high offset distance, flights performing holding patterns and S turns can be observed. These maneuvering tactics are utilized to add distance between the aircraft and the destination runway to prevent multiple flights from having conflicting arrival times. In order to predict a rise in complexity (or the precursor to complexity), it’s necessary to be able to identify these potential conflicts (which in turn, result in higher offsets). To do this, we define a “representative flight” for each STAR route and runway pair. This flight is approximately the path the flight would take if there was a clear path with no other flights in the airspace — including the time remaining to the airport. We first identify the flights for a given STAR runway pair using the offset to the reference path distributions that fall between the 44-55 percentiles. This yields the flights that conform to the most normal mode of operation. Each of these flights is partitioned based on the percent complete from the entry point into the maneuvering areas from 0\% – 100\% complete. Then for each percent “bin”, we take the median value of the flight’s latitude/longitude coordinates, airspeed, and (non causal) time remaining to the airport to construct a lookup table for each percent complete bin on a given route. As a flight enters the maneuvering area, we can find the estimated arrival time of a flight to the airport by finding the closest point to the representative path’s percent complete bin (relative to the flight’s current position at any snapshot in the airspace) and therefore retrieve the corresponding remaining time left on the “representative path”. We assume that the flight will follow the representative path to completion when deriving these estimates. We can then compare these estimated arrival times against other flights for the same snapshot in time to identify potential conflicts. If more flights are estimated to arrive within a tolerance window than there are runways available, then we have a potential conflict. We can use this derived measure along with other factors expected to add disruption to the operation such as weather and runway configuration changes as an input to machine learning tools to detect precursors that increases in our complexity measure. This novel method will assist in uncovering insights into the contributing factors that lead to increased complexity that may allow for in-time responses to avoid reaching a high complexity state in the airspace.

complexity↗

NASA NTRS2017

Validation of a Manually Oscillating Chair for In-The-Field Assessment of Dynamic Visual Acuity on Crewmembers Within Hours of Returning From Long-Duration Spaceflight

Long-duration spaceflight results in sensorimotor adaptations, which cause functional deficits during gravitational transitions, such as landing on a planetary surface after long-duration microgravity exposure. Both the vestibular system and the central nervous system are affected by gravitational transitions. These systems are responsible for coordinating head and eye movements via the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) and go through an adaptation period upon exposure to microgravity. Consequently, they must also re-adapt to Earth's gravitational environment upon landing. This re-adaptation causes decrements in gaze control and dynamic visual acuity, with crewmembers reporting oscillopsia and blurred vision caused by retinal slip, or the inability to keep an image focused on their retina. This is thought to drive motion sickness symptoms experienced by most crewmembers following landing. Retinal slip can be estimated by dynamic visual acuity (DVA); visual acuity while in motion. Previously, DVA has been assessed in the laboratory where subjects walked at 6.4 km/hr on a motorized treadmill. Using this method, Peters et al. (2011) found that DVA is worsened in astronauts by an average of 0.75 eye-chart lines one day after landing. However, it is believed that re-adaptation occurs quickly and that DVA might be worse immediately upon re-exposure to a gravitational environment. Since many crewmembers are unable to walk safely upon landing, it was necessary to develop a method for replicating the vertical head movements associated with walking. In addition, the use of a chair to imitate the head displacement caused by walking isolates eye-head interactions without allowing for trunk and lower-body compensation, as seen with treadmill walking (Mulavara & Bloomberg 2003). Therefore, a modality for assessing DVA in the field within a few hours of landing was developed. In this study, we validated the ability of a manually operated oscillating chair to reproduce the oscillatory frequency of walking on a treadmill. Healthy non-astronaut subjects (n=14) participated in one test session and completed three static (seated) and three dynamic (walking/oscillated) visual acuity tests. DVA was assessed using a motorized treadmill, an automated oscillating chair, and a manually operated chair, both developed in the Neuroscience Laboratory at JSC. The automated chair was motor-driven and set to oscillate vertically at 2 Hz with a vertical displacement of +/- 5 cm to simulate vertical translation while walking. The manually operated chair was oscillated vertically by a test operator to the beat of a metronome at 120 beats/min (2 Hz) and a vertical displacement of approximately +/- 5 cm. As the subject was oscillated, they were asked to discern the direction gap of Landolt-C optotypes of varying sizes and verbally reported the direction while an operator recorded their response using a gamepad. Subjects were outfitted with accelerometers (sampling rate = 128 Hz) on their head, trunk and lumbar spine. A fast Fourier transform was performed on the vertical trunk acceleration to compare the peak and spread of the distribution of oscillation frequencies for each oscillating condition. The spread of the frequency distribution for the manual chair was not significantly different from either the treadmill or the automated chair. However, all three conditions had similar non-zero standard error values, suggesting a variance in head movement frequency which may affect DVA. The average oscillation frequency of the manual chair (1.85 Hz) was significantly different (α=0.05) from that of treadmill walking (2.24 Hz), but not significantly different from that of the automated chair (1.85 Hz) and all three conditions had small standard errors (SEM = 0.04, 0.06, and 0.08 Hz for manual, treadmill, and automated respectively). This implies that both chairs oscillate at a frequency below that of treadmill walking, but are comparable to each other and reproducible across sessions. Additionally, DVA scores did not vary significantly across conditions. The smaller spread values of the oscillating chairs' frequencies indicated mitigation of variation induced by locomotor strategies, which enables better examination of the issue of VOR adaptation. Furthermore, due to the deconditioned state of crewmembers in the initial hours after landing, it is easier to transport a manual bouncing chair into the field and safer to perform a vision test while seated in a chair versus walking on a treadmill. Therefore, the manually oscillating chair has been deemed to meet and exceed the DVA testing capabilities previously obtained by treadmill walking.

Kreutzberg, G. A.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Final Technical Report: Moving ASR Cloud Microphysical Retrievals Beyond the Vertical Column

Clouds of all types play important roles in atmospheric heating, surface heating and emission of radiation, hence energy, to space. Clouds not only affect atmospheric heating via their impacts on solar and terrestrial radiation, they also release kinetic energy to the atmosphere when they form and they extract kinetic energy from the atmosphere when they evaporate. To understand the impacts of clouds on weather and climate, one must be able to make accurate observations of the amount of water associated with them and the impact of this water on atmospheric and surface heating rates. One important cloud type is liquid water clouds. Liquid clouds are often found in the boundary layers of Earth at altitudes from just above the surface to approximately 2000 m above it, at a variety of temperatures, including temperatures below the freezing point of liquid water (0 °C). As a result, they are important constituents over the world’s oceans as well as over cold, ice-covered surfaces such as in the Arctic. Observationally estimating the total amount of liquid contained in a column through a liquid water cloud can now be accomplished to acceptable accuracies (except for the thinnest, lowest liquid containing clouds) using instruments called passive microwave radiometers. However, observationally determining the spatial distribution of liquid within these columns has proven to be difficult. The focus of this project was on the application of two radars operating at two different frequencies to retrieve the distribution of liquid water within columns passing through liquid water clouds. Motivation in this project for using two different radars operating at different frequencies is that as overlapping (in space) beams from the two radars pass through the same column of liquid water cloud absorption of power from one beam (the 94-GHz beam) is greater than absorption of power from the other beam (the 35-GHz beam). Therefore, the difference in returned powers between the two radar beams with distance from the radars is proportional to the amount of liquid water that the two beams have passed through. Therefore, one can use the differences in power between the two beams with distance through a liquid water cloud to determine the distribution of liquid water throughout the cloud. The two radars used in this study are the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (Ka-SACR) and the W-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR). When this projected started in 2013, the Ka- and W-band SACRs were new technology, state-of-the-art sensors. To put together a sufficiently diverse and big set of test cases for the study, data from the SACRs deployed to NSA, SGP, TCAP and MAGIC were used, leading to a test set composed of 65 hours of suitable data spread over approximately 17 case study days. Using the Ka- and W-band SACR data from the case study periods, vertical distributions of liquid water content through liquid water clouds were retrieved. Because there are no other data sets with which to compare the retrievals, distributions of liquid water through a column were summed and compared to the total amounts of liquid water obtained by retrievals applied to passive microwave radiometer observations. The total amounts of liquid water (in units of millimeters, or the thickness in millimeters of the total liquid water in a vertical column if allowed to pool at the bottom of the column) between the two retrievals agreed to within 0.060 mm with a standard deviation of 0.31 mm, or to within 0.016 mm with a standard deviation of 0.12 mm once outliers were removed. The standard deviation of 0.12 mm was fairly independent of the total amount of liquid water in the clouds, indicating that retrieval errors were larger for clouds with smaller amounts of liquid in them. Errors in the retrieved total amounts of liquid were also found to be sensitive to the a priori information that was fed into the retrieval approach. Overall, standard deviations of 0.12 mm are sufficient for some cloud studies but for radiation studies standard deviations on the order of 0.02 mm need to be achieved for clouds with the lowest amounts of liquid water. Many modifications to the retrieval approach were tested subsequently in an attempt to reduce the standard deviations relative to the radiometer retrievals below 0.12 mm but none of them worked reliably. We decided to wait until the DOE ARM Program deployed its second generation SACR2s to its NSA and ENA sites for further retrieval evaluation. The SACR2s were engineered to better synchronize data between the Ka- and W-band radars, reducing potential sources of noise for radar retrieval of liquid water distributions within clouds. The SACR2s have improved in reliability recently and the system deployed to ENA is best positioned to provide the data to advance research on this path. This will be an ongoing research activity beyond the project because of the promise in SACR2 data from the DOE ARM ENA Facility.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

VersiCharge-SG - Smart Grid Capable Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) for Residential Applications

In his 2011 State of the Union address, President Obama called for one million electric vehicles on the road by 2015 [1]. With large-scale Electric Vehicle (EV) or Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV or EV for short) or Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) penetration into the US market, there will be drastic reduction in fossil fuel consumption, thus significantly reducing our dependency on foreign oil [2-6]. There will also be significant reduction on Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and smog in the major US cities [3, 7, 8]. Similar studies have also been done other industrial counties [9]. For the fuel cost, with the home electricity rate around $0.13 per kWh, it would cost about $0.05 per mile for DC operation and $0.03 cents per mile for AC operation. But, assuming 25 miles per gallon for a typical vehicle and $4 per gallon, fossil fuel will cost $0.16 per mile [10]. The overall lifecycle cost of PEVs will be several folds lower than the existing fossil fueled vehicles. Despite the above advantages of the EVs, the current cost of EVSE is not affordable for the average consumer. Presently, the cost of installing state-of-the-art residential EVSE ranges from $1500 to $2500 [11]. Low priced EVSE technology, which is easy to install, and affordable to operate and maintain by an average consumer, is essential for the large-scale market penetration of EVs. In addition, the long-term success of this technology is contingent on the PEVs having minimal excessive load and shift impact on the grid, especially at peak times. In a report [2] published by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the exiting electric power generation infrastructure, if used at its full capacity 24 hours a day, would support up to 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks and SUVs for an average daily drive of 33 miles. This mileage estimate is certainly much below what an average driver would drive his/her vehicle per day. Another report [3] by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) shows that an increased PEV penetration would significantly increase pressure on the peak generation, if no controlled charging strategy was put in place. Investigations from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) show that in many regions, additional power generation facilities must be put in place and operate in evening times to recharge the EVs [12]. By all accounts, large PEV penetration will bring to the power grid enormous challenges due to the excessive and stochastic demand, and can entirely change the peak time distribution and behavior, perhaps, into a bi-modal distribution capable of exhausting primary, secondary and even reserves (spinning or non-spinning). To minimize the infrastructure upgrade costs and risks to the grid, and to ensure that power quality and reliability remain within the set standards, the demand for EV plug-ins must then be controlled and coordinated locally and at regional levels. Novel control techniques must be devised to allow for close collaboration between neighboring plug-in requestors, between neighboring communities, and between these and more central power authorities. The concept of electric drive vehicle is not new. The development of electric vehicle has been around since 19th century [13]. But due to a number of reasons and practical limitations at the time, including lower cost of gasoline compared to electricity, excessive refueling times, and abundance of gasoline, the automobile industry embraced gasoline-powered vehicles worldwide [13]. With the global warming, ever reducing reservoirs of fossil oil around the world and increasing political pressure to reduce the national dependency on foreign oil, the last decade of the 20th century witnessed major technological breakthroughs in Alternative Fueled Vehicle (AFV) technologies, including electric vehicles. With GHG emissions and carbon footprint in the minds of many more consumers and politicians, the first decade of the 21stCentury witnessed more breakthroughs with some real life experimentation and sporadic deployment of these technologies [14]. By many accounts, the second decade of the 21st Century is expected to be the time when mass volume production and popular usage of these AFV technologies, especially EV, will materialize. The current DOE request for proposals recognizes the need for major technological changes to ensure that the above national goal is realizable. Two major challenges have been identified: (1) major reduction in the cost of ownership of EVSEs, and (2) managing additional EV loads in the power grid while maintaining power quality, reliability, and affordability. We note that the two challenges are closely linked – A holistic approach to true lifecycle cost of EVSE ownership will certainly include any taxes and surcharges that can be put in place for major potential investments in the grid, and higher electricity charges in case of more frequent and longer peak periods. From a societal perspective, this cost could also include the lost GDP (computed on a local basis) and revenue for businesses at local and regional levels when the grid is no longer capable of meeting the demand and unexpected outages occur. A typical end-point electrical distribution system delivers power to a residential EVSE from the neighborhood distribution pole, as shown in Fig.1. This pole has a transformer (neighboring step-down transformer) that steps down the utility medium voltage to dual 120VAC single phase (also called 240VAC split phase). This voltage is fed through a meter into the residential load control center. The load control center consists of branch circuit breakers and distributes the power supply within various areas of the residential unit. One of the branch circuits from the load control center feeds EV charging station for the unit. An electric vehicle charger is plugged into the socket of the EV charging station and other end of this charger is connected to the vehicle during charging. Figure 1 illustrates a typical configuration of the power grid. The left side of the figure shows the power grid from the power generation to the neighboring step-down transformer, while the right side of the figure shows multiple EVs with the respective charging stations. The typical step-down transformer has an upper limit representing the maximum load that can be requested from these neighboring houses altogether (typically 24 kW). In case the total load increases beyond the supported limit, the protection system (e.g. a circuit breaker) attached to the step-down transformer gets activated automatically.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2016

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Advancing our Understanding and the Remote Sensing of Ice Clouds”

This project has evolved during its execution, and what follows are the key project findings. This project has arguably provided the first global view of how cirrus cloud (defined as having cloud base temperature T < 235 K) nucleation physics (evaluated through satellite retrievals of ice particle number concentration Ni, effective diameter De and ice water content IWC) evolves with the seasons for a given temperature, latitude zone and surface type (e.g. ocean vs. land), based on a new satellite remote sensing method developed for this project. The retrieval method is unique in that it is very sensitive to the small ice crystals that govern the number concentration Ni, allowing Ni to be retrieved. The method currently samples single-layer cirrus clouds having visible optical depth ranging from about 0.3 to 3.0, using co-located observations from the Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) and from the CALIOP (Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) polar orbiting satellite, employing IIR channels at 10.6 μm and 12.05 μm. Retrievals of Ni are primarily used to estimate the cirrus cloud formation mechanism; that is, either homo- or heterogeneous ice nucleation (henceforth hom and het). This is possible since, in general, hom produces more than an order of magnitude more ice crystals than does het. Thus the retrievals provide insight on how these mechanisms change with the seasons for a given latitude zone or region, based on the years 2008 and 2013. Using a conservative criterion for hom cirrus, on average, the sampled cirrus clouds formed through hom occur about 43% of the time in the Arctic and 50% of the time in the Antarctic, and during winter at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, hom cirrus occur 37% of the time. Elsewhere (and during other seasons in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes), this hom cirrus fraction is lower, and it is lowest in the tropics. Thus, the microphysical properties of cirrus clouds in the Polar Regions are much different than they are in the tropics; something unknown prior to this study. Moreover, the frequency of cirrus cloud occurrence in the Polar Regions varies strongly with season, peaking during winter in the Arctic and during spring in the Antarctic. Considering these seasonal changes in microphysics and inferred cloud coverage, this leads us to speculate that the buildup of Arctic cirrus during winter may significantly contribute to tropospheric heating in that region, possibly affecting winter jet-stream dynamics and mid-latitude weather patterns through the thermal-wind balance relationship. This cirrus cloud research provides essential guidance for realistically representing cirrus clouds in climate models; guidance previously unavailable. For example, mid-latitude hom cirrus were widespread during winter over or nearby mountainous terrain, evidently due to mountain-induced waves that produce strong updrafts at cirrus cloud levels. The treatment of turbulent mountain stress and gravity waves will likely need to be improved in climate models in order to adequately represent cirrus clouds outside the tropics. Another goal of this project was to develop a ground-based 94-GHz radar retrieval for winter snowstorms, based on (1) an improved analytical framework describing the interaction of radiation from radar with snowfall and (2) the development of a steady-state snow growth model that predicts the height-evolution of the ice particle size distribution through ice particle growth by vapor diffusion, aggregation and riming (i.e. the growth of snow through collisions with supercooled cloud droplets). Although activities (1) and (2) were completed, there was insufficient time to test and finalize the radar retrieval scheme. However, activity (2) provided a new method for relating ice particle mass “m” and projected area “A” to the ice particle maximum dimension “D”. The ice cloud microphysical processes (which determine ice cloud radiative properties) in climate models are parameterized in terms of these m-D and A-D relationships. By improving these relationships, the ice cloud radiative properties in Community Atmosphere Model version 5, or CAM5 (an atmosphere global climate model, or GCM) were improved. Student funding from the University of Nevada, Reno, was combined with funds from this project to conduct some basic research on the mechanism of the North American monsoon, or NAM. Federal research on the NAM has dwindled since 2006, but atmospheric soundings taken during research vessel cruises in the Gulf of California (GC) during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) were used to reveal a likely mechanism that explains the relationship between an intrusion of tropical warm water into the GC during late spring-early summer and the onset of relatively heavy NAM rainfall in northwest Mexico and the southwestern United States. These soundings, combined with reanalysis data, satellite sea surface temperatures and satellite measurements of outgoing longwave radiation were used to develop and provide evidence for a planetary-scale NAM mechanism. As far as we know, no other physical explanation has been offered for the spring-summer evolution of the NAM system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distribution Development for Residual Inventory at the New York West Valley Site - 20400

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351 ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Operations led to contamination in a number of facilities and locations. Some of that contamination has migrated from waste disposal zones to other layers, formations, and features on and off the WNYNSC. Phase I decommissioning activities are ongoing and involve the removal of a number of areas and structures that have been associated with contamination. The purpose of this work is to outline the approach for characterizing contamination not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. In this work, the term, residual radiological activity, is used to describe environmental contamination that exists subsequent to the completion of Phase I decommissioning activities, that is not associated with disposed wastes, contaminated structures, or specific releases. Contamination from the Site was quantified relative to data that characterize the concentrations of radionuclides that exist in background. Background concentrations are those present in the area but having no influence from Site related activities. The existence of residual radiological activity that is elevated relative to background has the potential to contribute to future risks to human health and the environment. As a consequence, the residual inventory information is used to inform the West Valley Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model to characterize potential future risks to human health and the environment. The centralized West Valley Data Management System (DMS) was the source of information for the data assembled in this analysis. The DMS is a fairly large compilation consisting of thousands of records from investigation studies, with sample dates ranging from 1990 to present. Samples from monitoring wells, boreholes, geoprobe studies, surface water, surface soils, storm water outfalls, ventilation stack filters, plant and animal tissues, and more are included in the DMS. Results are typically reported in units of activity per unit volume. For the purpose of the analyses presented here, all results were converted into consistent units of pCi per unit volume. Since 1990, data have been collected from various locations across the WNYNSC at different times with varying frequency over the course of several decades. As a consequence, a number of potential issues can arise with respect to the assembly of a dataset that is deemed adequate for the characterization of residual radiological activity. These issues were assessed and resolved to the extent possible through careful consideration of the properties of the distributions. The intent was to use data which characterize the current state of the Site. Radionuclides can be designated to one of several groups depending on their origin. In this work the groups considered were 1) Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM), 2) fallout, and 3) Other (including power plant, medical research, etc). This grouping is a useful construct with respect to the interpretation of fixed laboratory results. For example, NORM radionuclides that exist within a decay chain should have approximately equivalent distributions of concentrations if they are representative of background conditions. Insights such as these can be used as a check to identify sample results that need to be further investigated or omitted due to issues associated with reported results from fixed laboratory analyses. This type of analysis provided a foundation for the assessment of the adequacy of sample results for use in subsequent components of an assessment. The general process for the assessment of residual radiological contamination at the Site consists of a sequence of several steps. First, for each analyte, several statistical tests were performed to assess the weight of evidence against the null hypothesis that the mean of the distribution of concentrations was equal to zero. If the mean of the distribution of concentrations for a given radionuclide was not found to be greater than zero, then it was removed from consideration as a component of the residual radiological contamination. If there was significant evidence to reject the hypothesis of the mean being equal to zero, the second step was to compare the distribution of the data from the Site to that of the corresponding background. A suite of tests was used to compare the distributions of the site and background data. The results of these tests were collectively used to determine if site data are elevated relative to background. The third step was to develop distributions using a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of mean of the increment present above background for each of the radionuclides. The Bayesian model implemented allowed for the comparison of site-specific records to background concentrations to better approximate contamination attributed to the Site. A final screening step was employed for radionuclides that exceed background. This screening step compared 95% upper confidence limits (UCLs) from the increment distribution developed in the previous step to the risk screening levels. This approach yields a list of analytes that were determined to be elevated relative to background.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generator Interconnection Costs to the Transmission System in non-ISO Balancing Authorities [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators—including Independent System Operators (ISOs), Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), and utilities—require proposed power plants to undergo a series of interconnection studies before connecting to the grid. These studies assess what transmission upgrades or new infrastructure may be necessary and assign the associated costs to the project. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection cost data, originally for ISOs/RTOs, and now for five non-ISO Balancing Authorities: PacifiCorp, Bonneville Power Authority, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Florida. Insufficient transparency in interconnection cost data may contribute to rapidly expanding interconnection queues, with active queue capacities tripling between 2020 and 2024 in the studied BAs. Most projects withdraw after receiving high interconnection cost estimates. Interconnection costs have increased since the early 2000s, with average costs for "complete" projects reaching $194/kW between 2018 and 2024. Active queue projects and withdrawn projects incur substantially higher costs, primarily due to rising network upgrade costs. Recent interconnection costs in non-ISO balancing authorities are higher than in ISO regions, potentially due to a greater willingness to pay among developers. Utility-scale solar, wind, and storage projects have interconnection costs that exceed those for natural gas. However, when focusing on projects that do not withdraw from the queue, the interconnection costs for these technologies are more similar to natural gas projects. Other key findings include: (1) Larger generation projects benefit from lower proportional interconnection costs, (2) capacity transmission service (NRIS) often requires additional network investments, and (3) projects with high network upgrade costs are often clustered geographically. The dataset includes results from 2,104 interconnection studies conducted between 2000 and 2024, covering projects that are operational, withdrawn, or still progressing through the study process. The Excel file contains (a) the complete project-level interconnection cost dataset, and (b) seven additional tabs summarizing cost metrics across dimensions such as time, market structure, cost category (point of interconnection vs. broader network upgrades), fuel type, service type (ERIS vs. NRIS), generator size, and geography.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

Final Scientific/Technical Report: Characterizing the Response of the Cascadia Margin Gas Hydrate Reservoir to Bottom Water Warming Along the Upper Continental Slope

The objective of this project is to understand the response of the WA margin gas hydrate system to contemporary warming of bottom water along the upper continental slope. Through pre-cruise analysis and modeling of archive and recent geophysical and oceanographic data, we (1) inventoried bottom simulating reflectors along the WA margin and defined the upper limit of gas hydrate stability, (2) refined margin-wide estimates of heat flow and geothermal gradients, (3) characterized decadal scale temporal variations of bottom water temperatures at the upper continental slope of the Washington margin, and (4) used numerical simulations to provide quantitative estimates of how the shallow boundary of methane hydrate stability responds to modern environmental change. These pre-cruise results provided the context for a systematic geophysical and geochemical survey of methane seepage along the upper continental slope from 48° to 46°N during a 10-day field program on the R/V Thompson from October 10-19, 2014. This systematic inventory of methane emissions along this climate-sensitive margin corridor and comprehensive sediment and water column sampling program provided data and samples for Phase 3 of this project that focused on determining fluid and methane sources (deep-source vs. shallow; microbial, thermogenic, gas hydrate dissociation) within the sediment, and how they relate to contemporary intermediate water warming. During the 2014 research expedition, we sampled nine seep sites between ~470 and 520 m water depth, within the zone of predicted methane hydrate retreat over the past 40 years. We imaged 22 bubble plumes with heights commonly rising to ~300 meters below sea level with one reaching near the sea surface. We collected 22 gravity cores and 20 CTD/hydrocasts from the 9 seeps and at background locations (no acoustic evidence of seepage) within the depth interval of predicted downslope retreat of the methane hydrate stability zone. Approximately 300 pore water samples were extracted from the gravity cores, and the pore water was analyzed for a comprehensive suite of solutes, gases, and stable isotope ratios. This comprehensive geochemical dataset was used to characterize the fluid and gas source(s) at each of the seep sites surveyed. The primary results of this project are: 1) Bottom simulating reflector-derived heat flow values decrease from 95 mW/m2 10 km east of the deformation front to ~60 mW/m2 60 km landward of the deformation front, with anomalously low values of ~25 mW/m2 on a prominent mid-margin terrace off central Washington. 2) The temperature of the incoming sediment/ocean crust interface at the deformation front ranges between 164-179 oC off central Washington, and the 350 oC isotherm at the top of the subducting ocean crust occurs 95 km landward of the deformation front. Differences between BSR-derived heat flow and modeled conductive heat flow suggest mean upward fluid flow rates of 0.4 cm/yr across the margin, with local regions (e.g. fault zones) exhibiting fluid flow rates up to 3.5 cm/yr. 3) A compilation of 2122 high-resolution CTD, glider, and Argo float temperature profiles spanning the upper continental slope of the Washington margin from the years 1968 to 2013 show a long-term warming trend that ranges from 0.006-0.008 oC/yr. Based on this long-term bottom water warming, we developed a 2-D thermal model to simulate the change in sediment temperature distribution over this period, along with the downslope retreat of the methane hydrate stability field. Over the 43 years of the simulation, the thermal disturbance propagated 30 m into the sediment column, causing the base of the methane hydrate stability field to shoal ~13 m and to move ~1 km downslope. 4) A preliminary analysis of seafloor observations and mid-water column acoustic data to detect bubble plumes was used to characterize the depth distribution of seeps along the Cascadia margin. These results indicate high bubble plume densities along the continental shelf at water depths <180 m and at the upper limit of methane hydrate stability along the Washington margin. 5) The majority of the seeps cored during the 2014 research expedition on the R/V Thompson contained abundant authigenic carbonate indicating that they are locations of long-lived seepage rather than emergent seep systems related to methane hydrate dissociation. Despite the evidence for enhanced methane seepage at the upper limit of methane hydrate stability along the Washington margin, we found no unequivocal evidence for active methane hydrate dissociation as a source of fluid and gas at the seeps surveyed. The pore fluid and bottom water chemistry shows that the seeps are fed by a variety of fluid and methane sources, but that methane hydrate dissociation, if occurring, is not widespread and is only a minor source (below the detection limit of our methods). Collectively, these results provide a significant advance in our understanding of the thermal structure of the Cascadia subduction zone and the fluid and methane sources feeding seeps along the upper continental slope of the Washington-sector of the Cascadia margin. Though we did not find unequivocal evidence for methane hydrate dissociation as a source of water and methane at the upper pressure-temperature limit of methane hydrate stability at present, continued warming of North Pacific Intermediate Water in the future has the potential to impact the methane hydrate reservoir in sediments at greater depths along the slope. Thus, this study provides a strong foundation and the necessary characterization of the background state of seepage at the upper limit of methane hydrate stability for future investigations of this important process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

WE-A-16A-01: International Medical Physics Symposium: Increasing Access to Medical Physics Education/Training and Research Excellence

In response to a world in which cancer is a growing global health challenge, there is now a greater need for US Medical Physicists and other Radiation Oncology professionals across institutions to work together and be more globally engaged in the fight against cancer. There are currently many opportunities for Medical Physicists to contribute to alleviating this pressing need, especially in helping enhance access to Medical Physics Education/training and Research Excellence across international boundaries, particularly for low and middle-income countries (LMIC), which suffer from a drastic shortage of accessible knowledge and quality training programs in radiotherapy. Many Medical Physicists are not aware of the range of opportunities that even with small effort could have a high impact. Faculty at the two CAMPEP-accredited Medical Physics Programs in New England: the University of Massachusetts Lowell and Harvard Medical School have developed a growing alliance to increase Access to Medical Physics Education/training and Research Excellence (AMPERE), and facilitate greater active involvement of U.S. Medical Physicists in helping the global fight against cancer and cancer disparities. In this symposium, AMPERE Alliance members and partners from Europe and Africa will present and discuss the growing global cancer challenge, the dearth of knowledge, research, and other barriers to providing life-saving radiotherapy in LMIC, mechanisms for meeting these challenges, the different opportunities for participation by Medical Physicists, including students and residents, and how participation can be facilitated to increase AMPERE for global health. Learning Objectives: To learn about the growing global cancer challenge, areas of greatest need and limitations to accessing knowledge and quality radiotherapy training programs, especially in LMIC; To learn about the range of opportunities for Medical Physicists, including students and residents, to work together in global health to help increase AMPERE and alleviate the growing global burden of cancer; To present and discuss a new model for harmonizing Medical Physics Training across countries and how this model (UMass and Heidelberg) could be extended to LMIC in collaboration with the IAEA; To highlight a new platform and program for facilitating contributions by Medical Physicists to increase AMPERE towards the elimination of global cancer disparities. Challenges in Cancer Control in Africa Twalib A. Ngoma, MD, Professor, Executive Director, Ocean Road Cancer Institute, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania Cancer care in Africa is beset by lack of attention, political will, cancer registries, cancer plans, human resources, financial resources and treatment facilities.. As a result of this, cancer patients in Africa are far more likely to die of their disease than those in developed countries. According to data from the WHO 750,000 new cancer cases occur in Africa every year and this number is predicted to rise by 70% by 2020. To make matters worse, an estimated 75% of cancer patients in Africa have advanced or incurable cancers at diagnosis making palliative care the most realistic approach to their management. Furthermore, Cancer prevention is nearly nonexistent, cancer detection is rare and treatment usually comes too late and is inefficient. The overall mortality-to-incidence ratio for men with cancer in the Africa is 0.75 compared with 0.54 in the developed world while the ratios for women in Africa, is 0.65 compared with 0.45 for women in the developed world. There is also limited access to radiotherapy. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whilst developed countries usually have one radiotherapy machine per 250,000 people, most African nations have only one machine per ten million people. The above numbers are alarming and speak for themselves. The only solution to improve this alarming situation is to address the major challenges which African countries face in provision of cancer services which include but not limited to lack of cancer registries, lack of funding, lack of human resources, lack of radiotherapy machines, lack of cancer drugs and lack of accessible and affordable cancer screening, early diagnosis, treatment or palliative care services. Since there are considerable differences among African countries, in my presentation I will share with the audience how we address cancer control challenges in Tanzania in general and specifically in radiation oncology. The African continent cancer plan 2013 2017 Folakemi Odedina, PhD, Professor and Director of Health Disparities, UF Health Cancer Center, University of Florida The burden of cancer is rising in Africa, in addition to current heavy burden of communicable, and other non-cancer related non—communicable diseases. Conquering cancer in Africa will require a comprehensive collaborative approach with cancer clinicians, scientists, patients, advocates, policy makers and community leaders working hand-in-hand at the local, state, national, and continent levels with the primary mission: To reduce the number of deaths from cancer and improve the quality of life of cancer patients, survivors and caregivers. Unfortunately, less than 40% of African countries have a credible cancer control policy and program. The African Organization for Research and Training in Cancer (AORTIC) decided to create an African Cancer Plan to provide cost-effective strategies that can be employed throughout the continent to fight cancer. Based on the African proverb that “It takes a village to raise a child”, the Cancer Plan provides specific strategies that can be used by individuals, employers, organizations and policy-makers to fight cancer. In addition, we have provided overarching strategies to address cancer in Africa and targeted 5-year plan for prostate, breast, cervix, lung and liver cancers. In developing this Cancer Plan, our primary goal is to decrease cancer incidence and mortality in Africa. This goal can only be achieved by stakeholders and dedicated individuals to lead and implement the strategies outlined in this plan. If you are interested in partnering with AORTIC to reduce the burden of cancer in Africa, please send an email to info@aortic-africa.org. Synergies in research and clinical care through international collaboration Thomas Bortfeld and David Gierga, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, MA Medical Physics relies on high technology that is not distributed equally. The whole spectrum of Medical Physics technologies is not available at every hospital or research institute, and not even in every high income country. One example is heavy ion therapy equipment which is currently only available in Japan, Germany and Italy. There is also a large global variation in terms of research infrastructure and focus. A student of Medical physics cannot gain broad experience, certainly not hands-on experience, by staying at one place only. While it is debatable what a good trade-off between breadth and depth in Medical Physics education is, it is generally agreed upon that some breadth is necessary. Researchers in Medical Physics have to cross borders if they need specific technologies for their projects. Therefore it is self-evident that international programs in Medical Physics education and research make sense. Yet, very few programs of this type exist. In this presentation we will report on our own experience of pursuing an international career in Medical Physics, with international student programs, and with the international exchange of researchers. We will present new or planned opportunities such as the medical beamline at CERN in Geneva. We will also report on the synergies in clinical care through international collaborations between partners in high and low income countries. One example is the partnership of the MGH/Harvard Medical School community with the oncology community and government of Botswana to form the BOTSOGO (BOTSwana Oncology Global Outreach) initiative. This collaborative effort in oncology care was spurred by existing relationships in HIV/AIDS research and care delivery developed within the Botswana-Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership (BHP). The initial efforts of the BOTSOGO initiative have been organized as follows: 1) on-site visits to share expertise in clinical cancer care for capacity building purposes (e.g. cervical brachytherapy), 2) developing a forum for multi-disciplinary case discussions and education and 3) relationship building with local stakeholders for long-term sustainability and growth. An international system for the certification of medical physicists Raymond K. Wu, Chairman, IOMP Professional Relations Committee; Chairman, AAPM Exchange Scientist Program Subcommittee An international system for the certification of medical physicists is an important issue. The International Organization for Medical Physicists (IOMP) has in collaboration with a number of member countries established the International Medical Physics Certification Board (IMPCB) to address this issue, and to provide a mechanism to mark the milestone for the professional development of clinical medical physicists. Raymond Wu, PhD, is the CEO of IMPCB and the Chairman of the IOMP Professional Relations Committee. He is the invited speaker recommended by IOMP to give a talk on this important subject. He will give the latest update of the work of IMPCB, its near term goals, and pathways to the goals. He will also discuss the importance of such an International System of certification in the training/education of next generation Medical Physicists, including those in low and middle income countries (LMIC) where such training is crucial in the fight against cancer. Learning Objectives: Understand the certification program as described in the IOMP Policy Statements. Understand the plan of the IMPCB to establish the accreditation process of national certification programs. Understand the goals of this international collaborative effort and the potential impacts to the quality of clinical medical physics practice. Medical Physics Education Across Continents: The UMass Lowell and Heidelberg University Joint Coordination Effort Erno Sajo, Director of Medical Physics, University of Massachusetts at Lowell Medical Physics education has unique flavors across institutions within the US and shows significant differences across continents. In the latter, even the definition of Medical Physics may differ. Not only is there a difference in topical coverage, but often what is considered a cohesive topic in one institution, and taught as a single course, is fragmented among several other courses in the other institution due to a different philosophy. Because of the regulatory and certification requirements, these differences impact the mobility of medical physicists across continents. As a result, physicists who wish to practice in the US or Canada but have completed their education elsewhere often find that they have to take remedial courses or even obtain a new degree in Medical Physics despite the fact that they already have one. Outreach to developing countries, therefore, is even more difficult. The University of Massachusetts Lowell and Heidelberg University recently completed a joint coordination effort, in which they identified topics that are common versus complementary in their medical physics curricula. A student exchange program was developed that permits students to take any of the common topics at the other institution while taking complementary courses as electives, which count towards their degree requirements at their home institution. Thesis research is also mutually accepted. When properly documented, in this way CAMPEP recommendations can be met across the institutions. Therefore, students participating in this program satisfy both the American Board of Radiology (ABR) requirements and the European regulatory requirements. The framework on which this collaboration rests and the cross-comparison methods developed therein may be implemented in other exchange programs and thus a similar approach can be adopted in outreach programs with developing countries. IAEA PACT Program and opportunities for support and collaboration Susan Morgan, Program Coordinator, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria In response to the developing world's cancer crisis, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) established the Program of Action for Cancer Therapy (PACT) in 2004 to fully realize the public health impact obtained through global partnerships in cancer control and technology transfer in radiation medicine. PACT's vision strives for global partnerships to confront the cancer crisis in developing countries, notably with our sister United Nations agency, the World Health Organization (WHO), and our Joint Programme on Cancer Control established in 2009. The IAEA, through PACT, the WHO, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and other cancer-related organizations work together to make a coordinated global response in supporting low and middle income (LMI) IAEA Member States in the implementation of comprehensive national cancer control programmes. PACT's goals are: To build global partnerships of cancer-related organizations committed to addressing the challenge of cancer in LMI Member States in all its aspects; To mobilize resources from charitable trusts, foundations, and others in public and private sectors sources to assist LMI Member States to develop and implement their radiation medicine capacities within a national cancer control programme (NCCP); and, To ensure the effective and sustainable transfer of radiation medicine technologies or knowledge to all LMI Member States where unmet needs exist. PACT work focuses on: imPACT: Assessing Cancer Burden PMDS: Developing Global Partnerships VUCCnet: Promoting Cancer Control Training AGaRT: Making Radiotherapy Accessible Facilitating increased participation and professional development of Medical Physicists and other Radiation Oncology professionals in global health Wilfred Ngwa, Harvard Medical School, University of Massachusetts Lowell, MA The 2014 World Health Organization (WHO) Cancer report highlights an alarming increase in the global burden of cancer. It also highlights what it terms “the cancer divide”, or disparities, evinced by a substantially higher cancer burden in low and middle income countries (LMIC) in Asia, Central/South America and Africa. The WHO even predicts a potential African cancer epidemic by 2020 if significant progress is not made in global cancer control efforts. Evidence that collaborative global health approaches have led to major progress in controlling infectious diseases including in LMIC suggests that similar approaches will be useful for non-communicable diseases like cancer. In consonance with this, leaders in cancer policy from the USA and 14 economically diverse countries recently concluded that successful campaigns to control cancers with existing methods and to improve current strategies will increasingly depend onconcerted multinational collaborations (Sci Transl Med 5, p. 175, 2013). Hence there is growing urgency for increasing collaborative global cancer Care Research and Education (CaRE), as well as support for greater effectiveness of already existing initiatives involving partners from different nations, diverse economic and cultural backgrounds. The good news is that there is a growing awareness of the importance of global health and growing interest including amongst Medical Physicists and other Radiation oncology (RadOnc) professionals to participate in global health. However, many are unaware of currently existing opportunities for participation that even with small effort could have a high impact. Over 50% of cancer patients in the developed world depend on RadOnc professionals for their treatment, and hence participation of RadOnc professionals in global health efforts in the global fight against cancer is crucial. It is also important that the next generation of RadOnc professionals (students, and residents) be trained with a global perspective, to be global health leaders in cancer CaRE. This presentation will highlight a novel platform for enhancing participation and professional development of Medical Physicists and other RadOnc professionals in global health. Ways in which this platform can facilitate contributions by Medical Physicists and other RadOnc Professionals, students and residents in global health towards the elimination of global cancer disparities will be discussed. This will be followed by a panel discussion by some of the pioneers/leaders in collaborative global cancer CaRE on the growing cancer burden, challenges and opportunities for greater active involvement and professional development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2017

Field evaluation of remote wind sensing technologies: Shore-based and buoy mounted LIDAR systems

In developing a national energy strategy, the United States has a number of objectives, including increasing economic growth, improving environmental quality, and enhancing national energy security. Wind power contributes to these objectives through the deployment of clean, affordable and reliable domestic energy. To achieve U.S. wind generation objectives, the Wind and Water Power Program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) instituted the U.S. Offshore Wind: Removing Market Barriers Program in FY 2011. Accurate and comprehensive information on offshore wind resource characteristics across a range of spatial and temporal scales is one market barrier that needs to be addressed through advanced research in remote sensing technologies. There is a pressing need for reliable offshore wind-speed measurements to assess the availability of the potential wind energy resource in terms of power production and to identify any frequently occurring spatial variability in the offshore wind resource that may impact the operational reliability and lifetime of wind turbines and their components and to provide a verification program to validate the “bankability” of the output of these alternative technologies for use by finance institutions for the financing of offshore wind farm construction. The application of emerging remote sensing technologies is viewed as a means to cost-effectively meet the data needs of the offshore wind industry. In particular, scanning and buoy mounted LIDAR have been proposed as a means to obtain accurate offshore wind data at multiple locations without the high cost and regulatory hurdles associated with the construction of offshore meteorological towers. However; before these remote sensing technologies can be accepted the validity of the measured data must be evaluated to ensure their accuracy. The proposed research will establish a unique coastal ocean test-bed in the Mid-Atlantic for the evaluation of LIDAR-based wind measurement systems to validate the accuracy of remotely measured wind data in marine applications. Specifically, the test-bed will be utilized to systematically evaluate the capability of emerging scanning LIDAR and buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR by: (1) Evaluating a fixed scanning LIDAR against land-based 50 and 60 meter high meteorological masts fitted with research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers; (2) Evaluating a buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDAR fixed on land and floating in a sheltered bay against a co-located 60 meter high meteorological mast fitted with a research quality cup-vane and/or sonic anemometers and the fixed scanning LIDAR; and (3) Offshore field evaluation of both LIDAR platforms through a comparison of the fixed scanning LIDAR data and data obtained by the buoy mounted LIDAR located 10 miles offshore. The proposed research will systematically validate Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) based wind measurement systems and assess the temporal and spatial variability of the offshore wind resource in the Mid-Atlantic east of New Jersey. The goal of the proposed project is to address the technical and commercial challenges of the offshore wind energy industry by validating and assessing cost-effective, over ocean wind resource characterization technologies. The objective is to systematically evaluate the capability of both scanning and vertically profiling LIDARs to accurately measure 3D wind fields through comparison with fixed met masts and intercomparison among LIDAR platforms. Once validated, data collected by both buoy mounted vertically profiling LIDARs and shore-based, pulsed horizontally scanning LIDARs can be used to accurately assess offshore wind resources and to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in the offshore wind fields. One of the fundamental research questions to be addressed in phase 1 is the assessment of various measurement and data processing schemes to retrieve accurate wind vectors in the marine environment over large sampling ranges (10 to 12 km) and varying atmospheric aerosol levels. Atmospheric conditions and aerosol content within the coastal ocean region of the Mid-Atlantic seaboard of the US can vary significantly over short time periods in response to frontal passages and extratropical and tropical low pressure system passage offshore of the coast. Since aerosols provide the scattering medium for the determination of LIDAR Doppler shifts in the atmosphere the accuracy and range of LIDAR derived velocity measurements as a function of variation in aerosol content in the marine environment is a key research question to be addressed. In phase 1, it is desired to capture as much variation in atmospheric conditions and aerosol content as possible. To this end, collocated measurements of LIDAR and standard anemometer wind fields will be captured by the project PIs over all four seasons and during specific events (e.g., coastal low pressure system passage) in year 1. Additionally, since the meteorological masts are permanent structures, additional events can be captured over the three year duration of the field research project. All research instruments are owned by Fishermen’s Energy and made available to the PIs though a lease agreement as part of the DOE grant. Energy Fishermen’s Energy will be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the scanning LIDAR and met mast anemometers. On a daily basis, environmental data and systems performance indicators will be transmitted from each measurement station to the Fishermen’s project team consisting of both in-house personnel and equipment manufacturer engineers. Data sets include compiled LIDAR files as well as data sets from ancillary sensors. Diagnostic parameters to be monitored include standard deviations of measured values, battery levels and charging systems output, and the operational status. Once data have been confirmed as complete and reliable, files will be transferred to the Garrad Hassan (a subcontractor to Fishermen’s Energy) for incorporation in to the validation database, which is accessible to other scientific team members. Data collection times and durations will be determined by the PI and Co-PIs in consultation with instrument engineers to ensure the capture of data representative of the expected range of mid-Atlantic atmospheric conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, coastal low pressure systems, tropical systems, rain, snow, fog). The collection and processing of the data is a function of site specific measurement requirements (Kelley et.al. 2007; Hannon et.al. 2008). To determine the optimal profiles of wind speed and direction from the LIDAR radial velocities as a function of azimuth angle, rigorous estimates of the bias and random error of each radial velocity estimate are required. Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc., under contract with Fishermen’s Energy, will provide analyses of raw and processed data using various scan patterns to determine optimal performance settings for the pulsed scanning LIDAR. Once optimized, appropriate processing and analyses techniques will be evaluated by Garrad Hassan for use in validating the accuracy of the LIDAR wind field measurements against the standard anemometer measurements from the meteorological masts. The most attractive capability of the scanning LIDAR is the ability to provide high spatial resolution observations in a three-dimensional volume which provides superior statistical accuracy due to the large number of samples obtained. Each radial scan provides measurements in 100 range gates over a distance of 10 to 12 km at an update rate of 5 to 10 Hz and rotation of 2.5° per second. Each rotation at a fixed azimuth requires 2.4 minutes. Depending on the number of azimuths desired a complete scan can take up to 10 minutes or longer to complete. Once collected the radial velocities are processed to produce vector wind velocity estimates based on a set of data distributed in angle and range around points of interest, typically a standard grid within the radial wind map. To calculate wind vectors over a limited spatial area of interest for the comparison of data with other measurement platforms a localized least-squares approach has been applied by Hannon et.al. (2008) and a Variation Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and al Assimilation (VAR) processing technique has been applied by Chan and Shao (2006). Additionally, Kelley et.al. (2007) applied a “stare” technique that fixed a scanning LIDAR in both azimuth and elevation angles to measure over collocated sampling volumes of the LIDAR and a 3D sonic anemometer mounted to a fixed mast. Although the stare technique is limited to wind directions aligned with the sampling radial of the LIDAR, it does provide a direct comparison of sampling volumes. Each of the processing techniques described above (and possibly others) will be evaluated to determine the validity of the LIDAR derived wind fields in the marine environment. Numerical methods such as linear regression and comparison of probability density functions of wind fields measured by each instrument platform will be used to assess the processing techniques. Linear regression has the advantage of directly evaluating corresponding pairs of wind data measured by each instrument and can lend insight into deviations and bias between instruments as a function of wind speed. Assessment of the coherency between the probability density function of the wind measured by each instrument provides insight into processes that may not be accurately resolved by each instrument at specific frequencies. Once processed and assessed the most appropriate technique will be utilized to provide valid wind measurements from the pulsed scanning LIDAR. A detailed analysis of the measurement data from the LIDAR and the three meteorological towers and comparison of the coastal wind characteristics from the different systems will be performed by the CO_PI at NREL. This analysis will evaluate how the WT LIDAR performance and measurement of the wind characteristics vary with distance from the LIDAR and by atmospheric conditions; using the tower measurements at different distances (4.8, 9.6, and 19 km) from the LIDAR as a reference. The comparative analysis will include, to the extent possible, evaluation of parameters such as wind speed and direction distributions, wind shear, turbulence intensity and their variations by atmospheric conditions, month or season, and time of day.

17 WIND ENERGY↗