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DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring dynamics of differentially rotating, unmagnetized, free-boundary plasma produced by soft x-ray irradiation

We present results from a new experiment, fielded on the MAGPIE pulsed power generator, producing a rotating, boundary-free plasma with no pre-imposed magnetic field. Angular momentum is introduced to the rotating system by the oblique collision of multiple plasma flows, which are driven by x-ray ablation of solid targets using the soft x-rays emitted from the implosion of wire array z-pinches. This produces a hydrodynamically stable plasma which undergoes ~2-3 rotations over the duration of the experiment, significantly more than previous pulsed-power platforms. Estimating the angular frequency from the electron density profile in the inner part of the rotating plasma shows that it has a quasi-Keplerian rotation profile. The system also allows for the addition of a controllable magnetic field. This, combined with the sufficiently large Reynolds (~10 5 ) and magnetic Reynolds (~10) numbers, will enable investigation of the effect of magnetic field on the structure and stability of the rotating plasma.

Physics - Plasma physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accurate numerical simulations of open quantum systems using spectral tensor trains

Decoherence between qubits is a major bottleneck in quantum computations. Decoherence results from intrinsic quantum and thermal fluctuations as well as noise in the external fields that perform the measurement and preparation processes. With prescribed colored noise spectra for intrinsic and extrinsic noise, we present a numerical method, Quantum Accelerated Stochastic Propagator Evaluation (Q-ASPEN), to solve the time-dependent noise-averaged reduced density matrix in the presence of intrinsic and extrinsic noise. Q-ASPEN is arbitrarily accurate and can be applied to provide estimates for the resources needed to error-correct quantum computations. We employ spectral tensor trains, which combine the advantages of tensor networks and pseudospectral methods, as a variational ansatz to the quantum relaxation problem and optimize the ansatz using methods typically used to train neural networks. Here, the spectral tensor trains in Q-ASPEN make accurate calculations with tens of quantum levels feasible. We present benchmarks for Q-ASPEN on the spin-boson model in the presence of intrinsic noise and on a quantum chain of up to 32 sites in the presence of extrinsic noise. In our benchmark, the memory cost of Q-ASPEN scales as a low-order polynomial in the size of the system once the number of system states surpasses the number of basis functions used in the spectral expansion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Water Resource Assessment In The New Mexico Permian Basin: BLM 2023 Assessment Report

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil field in the United States and is comprised of three component basins including; the Midland Basin, Delaware Basin and the Marfa Basin. This report describes the work conducted by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to investigate the occurrence of usable water (quality, and depth to water) in the Delaware Sub-basin of the Permian Basin. High Production Areas (HPAs) were identified for the region based on Reasonable Foreseeable Development Scenario (RFD) published by New Mexico Tech University. HPAs were established based on potential for future development of oil reserves. The study was initiated by the BLM-Carlsbad Field Office (CFO) based on concerns that special protections for groundwater in these HPAs may be warranted. A combination of analysis of existing data and field work to collect new data for analysis were used to complete the investigation objectives. This study summarizes the most recent analyses in an ongoing project and builds on previously completed work as listed in Table 1. Advancements in directional drilling and well completion technologies have resulted in an exponential growth in the use of hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas extraction in the Permian Basin. Within the New Mexico portion of the Delaware Sub-basin, water demand to complete each hydraulically fractured well is estimated to average 7.3 acre-feet (2.4 million gallons), resulting in 30 billion barrels of water over the life of the plan or 1.5 billion barrels per year. This rising demand is creating concern for the regions ability to provide the necessary water in a manner that fulfills BLM’s role of protecting human health and the environment while sustainably meeting the needs of various water users in the region. This report documents water-level and water chemistry baselines to aid the BLM in understanding the regional water supply dynamics under various management, policy, and growth scenarios and to pre-emptively identify risks to water sustainability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supporting ARPA-E Power Grid Optimization (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Arizona State University (ASU), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) supported the ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition by providing a common problem formulation, data format, datasets, evaluation mechanism, scoring, rules, and results that resulted in the awarding of $\$9.24$ million dollars to teams from academia, industry, and national labs for solving three sets of increasingly difficult non-linear, security- constrained AC Optimal Powerflow (AC-OPF) optimization problems in order to increase the efficiency of the US Electric Grid. It is estimated that a 1% increase in efficiency can save $\$1$ billion. Current industry practices typically use a linear DC model (DC-OPF) in order solve the OPF problem within the time constraints of the operation schedule. The GO Competition challenges the best power engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists to make possible operational decisions based on accurate physical models. To accomplish this, the GO Competition created a series of Challenges and funded teams to produce the best solver. Challenge 1 was to solve the security constrained Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem. Challenge 2 extended that to by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment (UC). Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. While Challenge 3 was being developed, the entrants were invited to find better solutions to the Challenge 2 synthetic datasets with no restrictions on time, hardware, or algorithms. The Challenge 2 solutions turned out to be very good. Challenge 3 expanded the Challenge 2 problem further by using multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. These problems included active bid-in demand and topology optimization. Together the Challenges used nearly 30 million CPU hours. Since each team was working on the same problem, using the same data, and running on the same hardware, fair comparisons could be drawn as to the best solver. The datasets were varied enough, however, that the best solver for one dataset was not necessarily the best at another, so cumulative scores were used. The process was managed by the PNNL maintained website https://GOCompetition.energy.gov, where Entrants could find information about the problem, the data, the rules, submit their solver for evaluation, and see the scores of all the competing teams on a Leaderboard. Interest was world-wide but only American teams were eligible for prizes. The Competition has produced 34 journal articles 115 papers and been cited over 500 times in the literature, including 12 dissertations (4 from foreign countries; Columbia (2), Germany, and Italy) and 3 from the DOE ExaScale project. Software developed by Pearl Street Technologies for Challenges 1 and 2 is now deployed by Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent Service Operator (MISO). Other teams have received inquiries from venture capitalists. Google DeepMind has thanked the Competition for making the datasets developed for the Competition public. They are using it to train machine learning models. The larger datasets have billions of unknowns to be solved for, but only a small percent matter in the final solution. Knowing what unknowns are important can dramatically speedup the solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Volatility-Based Aerosol Phase State Predictions in the Amazon Rainforest

Organic aerosol (OA) is a complex matrix of various constituents—fresh (primary organic aerosols—POA) and aged via oxidation (secondary organic aerosols—SOA), generated from biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning sources. The viscosity of OA can be critical in influencing new particle formation, reactive uptake processes that impact evaporation-growth kinetics, and the lifetime of particles in the atmosphere. We report this work utilizes a well-defined relationship between volatility and viscosity for pure compounds, which we incorporated within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate the phase state and viscosity of bulk OA during the dry-to-wet transition season (September–October) in the Amazon rainforest during 2014. Our simulations indicate spatial and temporal heterogeneity in aerosol phase state often not captured by global-scale models. We show the strong role of water associated with organic aerosol ($w_s$) as the dominant factor that can be used to quantitatively estimate OA viscosity. Analysis of WRF-Chem simulations across the entire atmospheric column indicates a strong inverse log-linear relationship between $w_s$ and OA viscosity with a correlation coefficient approaching 1, in the background and biomass burning-influenced conditions. At high altitudes where relative humidity (RH) and temperatures are low, our simulations indicate that OA exists in a semisolid-/solid-like phase state, consistent with previous studies. OA hygroscopicity is strongly correlated (ca. –0.8) with OA viscosity at RH ca. 30–50%, but this RH range is found mostly at low OA concentrations and the middle troposphere (ca. 6–10 km altitudes) in our simulated domain. OA hygroscopicity is uncorrelated with viscosity at higher-RH (near surface) and lower-RH (upper troposphere) regimes. At the urban site near surface, where day–night differences in RH are significant, RH is found to drive the phase state. At the background forested site near surface, where day–night RH differences are small, biomass burning-influenced OA is semisolid and a significant OA associated with background conditions is liquid-like. Simulations indicate a long tail of OA viscosity frequency distributions extending in the semisolid/solid regimes over background biogenic-influenced conditions due to the role of low-volatility OA components such as monoterpene oxidation products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The NASA ACTIVATE Mission

The NASA Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) conducted 162 joint flights with two aircraft over the northwest Atlantic to study aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs), which represent the largest uncertainty in estimating total anthropogenic radiative forcing. The combination of a high-flying King Air and low-flying HU-25 Falcon, equipped with remote sensing and in situ instruments, characterized trace gases, aerosol particles, clouds, and meteorological variables with data collected nearly simultaneously below, within, and above marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Flights spanning warm and cold seasons across 3 years (2020–22) provided a broad range of conditions associated with aerosol particles, cloud properties (including particle size and phase), and meteorology, ideally suited for robust ACI calculations and assessing how well models simulate a wide range of MBL clouds from stratiform to cumulus. ACTIVATE data suggest that drivers of cloud droplet number concentration N d , including aerosol particles and MBL dynamics, vary between winter and summer months with a stronger potential to convert aerosol particles into cloud droplets in winter. Models of varying complexity not only highlight some skills in simulating winter and summer cloud types but also identify challenges that still need to be addressed such as treatment of turbulence, wet scavenging, and mesoscale organization. Remote sensing advances range from new retrieval methods for N d , cloud phase classification, vertically resolved aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei number concentration, and ocean surface wind speed. This work describes these scientific and technological advances along with efforts in outreach and open data science.

aerosol indirect effect↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

Christensen, Matthew [Pacific Northwest National L↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparison of time-resolved photoluminescence and deep-level transient spectroscopy defect evaluations in an InAs nBn detector subjected to in situ and ex situ 63 MeV proton irradiation

Deep-level transient spectroscopy and temperature-dependent time-resolved photoluminescence experiments are performed on identical InAs nBn photodetector structures as a function of in situ and ex situ 63 MeV proton irradiation to assess their generation and recombination dynamics. Pre-irradiation, the n-type InAs absorbing region, exhibits a steadily increasing minority carrier lifetime with increasing temperature, providing evidence that excited minority carriers may be recombining via shallow defect levels. From deep-level transient spectroscopy, two features are found between 10 and 275 K: a low temperature broad “shoulder,” which suggests emission from multiple shallow electron defect levels with energies <29 meV and a high temperature minimum occurring at ∼230 K with an activation energy of 539 meV, which suggests a defect in the barrier layer in the device. Two similar nBn detectors are then subjected to 63 MeV proton irradiation in step doses and measured between steps. One experiment is performed in situ with an nBn held at ∼10 K during dosing, and the other experiment is performed ex situ with a similar nBn held at room temperature for dosing. The ex situ dosing results in an evaluation of the defect introduction rate that is three to four times lower than in situ due to partial annealing of the proton-induced displacement damage at room temperature. The results of these two experiments are then compared with the dose-dependent recombination rate analysis, resulting in an estimated recombination defect cross section of 1.6 × 10 −13 cm 2 for the shallow shoulder defect.

Carrasco, Rigo A. [Air Force Research Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of cccDNA dynamics in hepatitis B patients by a combination of serum surrogate markers

Quantification of intrahepatic covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA) is a key for evaluating an elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in infected patients. However, quantifying cccDNA requires invasive methods such as a liver biopsy, which makes it impractical to access the dynamics of cccDNA in patients. Although HBV RNA and HBV core-related antigens (HBcrAg) have been proposed as surrogate markers for evaluating cccDNA activity, they do not necessarily estimate the amount of cccDNA. Here, we employed a recently developed multiscale mathematical model describing intra- and intercellular viral propagation and applied it in HBV-infected patients under treatment. We developed a model that can predict intracellular HBV dynamics by use of extracellular viral markers, including HBsAg, HBV DNA, and HBcrAg in peripheral blood. Importantly, the model prediction of the amount of cccDNA in patients over time was confirmed to be well correlated with the data for quantified cccDNA by paired liver biopsy. Thus, our method combining classic and emerging surrogate markers enables us to predict the decay dynamics of cccDNA in patients undergoing treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Fluid Dynamics-Based Modeling of Methane Flows Around Oil and Gas Equipment

Recent studies estimate that emissions from oil and gas production facilities contribute between 20 and 50% of the total methane ( CH 4 ) emitted in the US; therefore, quantifying and reducing these emissions are crucial for achieving climate goals. Methane quantification depends on both measuring methane concentrations and converting them to emissions through a modeling framework. Currently, simple atmospheric dispersion models are primarily used to quantify emissions and concentrations, but these estimates are highly uncertain when quantifying emissions from complex aerodynamic sources, such as oil and gas facilities. This investigation used a CFD modeling approach, which can account for aerodynamic complexity but has hitherto not been used to model methane concentrations downwind of a methane release of a known rate, and compared it against in situ measurements. High-time-resolution (1 Hz) methane concentration and meteorological data were measured during experiments conducted at the METEC on 21 March and 11 July 2024. The METEC site configuration, measured wind data, and controlled emission rates were used as input for the CONVERGE CFD model to model downwind CH 4 concentration. The modeling was carried out between 20 and 70 m, from two different points of release in two separate controlled-release experiments, one from a separator and another from a wellhead. In these experiments, we found that the CFD model could predict the CH 4 concentrations downwind of the release to a good degree. The model was evaluated on multiple metrics to assess its performance in estimating methane concentrations at typical fence line distances (∼30 m). These results help us to understand external flows and the ability of CFD models to predict downwind concentrations in aerodynamically complex environments.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The value of integrating a geothermal district heating system into a microgrid

As electrical grids increasingly rely on variable renewable energy, maintaining reliability and cost efficiency becomes more complex. To address these challenges, this study analyzed the integration of geothermal district heating as a grid-responsive thermal resource within a microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Building energy modeling using EnergyPlus estimated annual district heating demand at 2.9 GWh, with a peak load of 2.8 MW th . Techno-economic analyses were conducted to meet the heating demand under three geothermal scenarios, varying by production depth, flow rate, and thermal output, each supplemented by natural gas peaking boilers. In parallel, equivalent electrical load profiles were developed using typical coefficients of performance (COPs) for air-source heat pumps and electric boilers to establish an electrified baseline scenario. A complete end-use electrical load profile was also developed for the microgrid using Cambium dataset. The modeling results demonstrated reliable and economic operation of the geothermal systems over 30 years, with COPs ranging from 2.6 to 8.9 and the lowest levelized heating cost at $\$$54.6/MWh. Geothermal integration reduced electricity consumption by up to 94.7 % compared to the non-geothermal base case, yielding annual energy savings of up to $\$$803 k. Avoided grid costs ranged from $\$$65 k–$\$$147 k per year, with individual events avoiding up to $\$$4,863 per hour. Grid-responsive operation further reduced wholesale energy costs by 53–56 %. These findings demonstrate geothermal heating, traditionally treated as a non-grid-responsive thermal resource, can be reconfigured to support dynamic grid services, offering a scalable pathway to enhance reliability and reduce costs in renewable-rich microgrids and district heating networks.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Comparison of Building Height Products at a Global Level

The built environment continues to expand due to increasing human populations with some projections indicating additional growth of 2.5 billion persons by 2050. Buildings are a key component of the built environment and information on building height and urban morphology in general can help to better understand and address a host of development and urban planning issues including energy consumption, urbanization, population dynamics, urban heat islands, environmental degradation, and others. To date, several approaches have been developed to address the need for mapping building height at scale. These approaches can be grouped into two main categories: 1) directly measure height from remote sensing products or 2) indirectly estimate height from footprint morphology features at the building-by-building level. Due to a number of these global height datasets now being available for consumption and use across domains, there is a critical need to understand the differences displayed between these products and how the use of these may influence the outcome when applied. In this analysis, we compare and evaluate 5 global building height datasets: Global Human Settlement, World Settlement Footprint 3D, Global Building Morphology dataset, three-dimensional Global Building Footprints, and an approach developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Our analysis shows that, across 5 cities at a global scale with high-quality building height reference data, the approach developed by ORNL of inferring height at the building-by-building level is more accurate and consistent. This was evidenced by the ORNL product improving upon the baseline in all 5 cities, the only product to do so. These findings will aid researchers in choosing a global building height product that best meets their needs and provides global availability, consistency, and accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

FAD-Toolset (Floating Array Design Toolset) [SWR-26-056]

The Floating Array Design (FAD) Toolset is a collection of tools for modeling and designing arrays of floating offshore structures. It was originally designed for floating wind systems but has applicability for many offshore applications. A core part of the FAD Toolset is the floating array model, which serves as a high-level library for efficiently modeling a floating array, such as a floating wind array. It combines site condition information and a description of the floating array design, and contains functions for evaluating the array's behavior considering the site conditions. For example, it combines information about site soil conditions, mooring line loads, and an array's anchor characteristics to estimate the holding capacity of each anchor. The library works in conjunction with the tools RAFT, MoorPy, and FLORIS to model floating platforms, wind turbines, mooring systems, power cables, and array wakes respectively. Layered on top of the floating array model is a set of design tools that can be used for algorithmically adjusting or optimizing parts of the a floating array. Specific tools existing for mooring lines, shared mooring systems, dynamic power cables, static power cable routing, and overall array layout. These capabilities work with the design representation and evaluation functions in the floating array model, and they can be applied by users in various combinations to suit different purposes. In addition to standalone uses of the FAD Toolset, a coupling has been made with Ard, (https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/Ard) a sophisticated and flexible wind farm optimization tool. This coupling allows Ard to use certain mooring system capabilities from FAD to perform layout optimization of floating wind farms with Ard's more advanced layout optimization capabilities. The FAD Toolset works with the IEA Wind Task 49 Ontology (https://github.com/IEAWindTask49/Ontology), which provides a standardized format for describing floating wind farm sites and designs. See example use cases in our examples folder (https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/FAD-Toolset/blob/main/examples/README.md) For working with the library, it is important to understand the floating array model structure, which is described more here: https://github.com/NLRWindSystems/FAD-Toolset/blob/main/fad/README.md.

Sirkis, Leah [National Laboratory of the Rockies (↗