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A global three-dimensional model of the stratospheric sulfuric acid layer

A 3D model which encompasses SO2 production from OCS, followed by its oxidation to gaseous H2SO4, the condensation-evaporation equilibrium of gaseous and particulate H2SO4, and finally particle condensation and rainout, is presently used to study processes maintaining the nonvolcanically-perturbed stratosphere's sulfuric acid layer. A comparison of the results thus obtained with remotely sensed stratospheric aerosol extinction data shows the model to simulate the general behavior of stratospheric aerosol extinction.

Golombek, Amram↗

Modelling and Simulation of the Advanced Plasma Source

Plasma ion assisted-deposition (PIAD) is a combination of conventional thermal evaporation deposition and plasma-beam surface modification; it serves as a well-established technology for the creation of high quality coatings on mirrors, lenses, and other optical devices. It is closely related to ion-assisted deposition to the extent that electrons preserve quasineutrality of the ion beam. This paper investigates the Advanced Plasma Source (APS), a plasma beam source employed for PIAD. A field enhanced glow discharge generates a radially expanding plasma flow with an ion energy of about 80-120 eV. Charge exchange collisions with the neutral background gas (pressure 0.1 Pa and below) produce a cold secondary plasma, which expands as well. A model is developed which describes the primary ions by a simplified Boltzmann equation, the secondary ions by the equations of continuity and momentum balance, and the electrons by the condition of Boltzmann equilibrium. Additionally, quasineutrality is assumed. The model can be reduced to a single nonlinear differential equation for the velocity of the secondary ions, which has several removable singularities and one essential singularity, identified as the Bohm singularity. Solving the model yields macroscopic plasma features, such as fluxes, densities, and the electrical field. An add-on Monte-Carlo simulation is employed to calculate the ion energy distribution function at the substrate. All results compare well to experiments conducted at a commercial APS system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Laboratory Evaporation Testing Of Hanford Waste Treatment Plant Low Activity Waste Off-Gas Condensate Simulant

The Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low Activity Waste (LAW) vitrification facility will generate an aqueous condensate recycle stream, LAW Off-Gas Condensate, from the off-gas system. The baseline plan for disposition of this stream is to send it to the WTP Pretreatment Facility, where it will be blended with LAW, concentrated by evaporation and recycled to the LAW vitrification facility again. Alternate disposition of this stream would eliminate recycling of problematic components, and would enable de-coupled operation of the LAW melter and the Pretreatment Facilities. Eliminating this stream from recycling within WTP would also decrease the LAW vitrification mission duration and quantity of canistered glass waste forms. This LAW Off-Gas Condensate stream contains components that are volatile at melter temperatures and are problematic for the glass waste form. Because this stream recycles within WTP, these components accumulate in the Condensate stream, exacerbating their impact on the number of LAW glass containers that must be produced. Approximately 32% of the sodium in Supplemental LAW comes from glass formers used to make the extra glass to dilute the halides to be within acceptable concentration ranges in the LAW glass. Diverting the stream reduces the halides in the recycled Condensate and is a key outcome of this work. Additionally, under possible scenarios where the LAW vitrification facility commences operation prior to the WTP Pretreatment facility, identifying a disposition path becomes vitally important. This task examines the impact of potential future disposition of this stream in the Hanford tank farms, and investigates auxiliary evaporation to enable another disposition path. Unless an auxiliary evaporator is used, returning the stream to the tank farms would require evaporation in the 242-A evaporator. This stream is expected to be unusual because it will be very high in corrosive species that are volatile in the melter (chloride, fluoride, sulfur), will have high ammonia, and will contain carryover particulates of glass-former chemicals. These species have potential to cause corrosion of tanks and equipment, precipitation of solids, release of ammonia gas vapors, and scale in the tank farm evaporator. Routing this stream to the tank farms does not permanently divert it from recycling into the WTP, only temporarily stores it prior to reprocessing. Testing is normally performed to demonstrate acceptable conditions and limits for these compounds in wastes sent to the tank farms. The primary parameter of this phase of the test program was measuring the formation of solids during evaporation in order to assess the compatibility of the stream with the evaporator and transfer and storage equipment. The origin of this LAW Off-Gas Condensate stream will be the liquids from the Submerged Bed Scrubber (SBS) and the Wet Electrostatic Precipitator (WESP) from the LAW facility melter offgas system. The stream is expected to be a dilute salt solution with near neutral pH, and will likely contain some insoluble solids from melter carryover. The soluble components are expected to be mostly sodium and ammonium salts of nitrate, chloride, and fluoride. This stream has not been generated yet, and, thus, the composition will not be available until the WTP begins operation, but a simulant has been produced based on models, calculations, and comparison with pilot-scale tests. This report discusses results of evaporation testing of the simulant. Two conditions were tested, one with the simulant at near neutral pH, and a second at alkaline pH. The neutral pH test is comparable to the conditions in the Hanford Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) evaporator, although that evaporator operates at near atmospheric pressure and tests were done under vacuum. For the alkaline test, the target pH was based on the tank farm corrosion control program requirements, and the test protocol and equipment was comparable to that used for routine evaluation of feed compatibility studies for the 242-A evaporator. One of the radionuclides that is volatile in the melter and expected to be in high concentration in this LAW Off-Gas Condensate stream is Technetium-99 (99Tc). Technetium will not be removed from the aqueous waste in the Hanford WTP, and will primarily end up immobilized in the LAW glass by repeated recycle of the off-gas condensate into the LAW melter. Other radionuclides that are also expected to be in appreciable concentrations in the LAW Off-Gas Condensate are 129I, 90Sr, 137Cs, and 241Am. The concentrations of these radionuclides in this stream will be much lower than in the LAW, but they will still be higher than limits for some of the other disposition pathways currently available. At this time, these scoping tests did not evaluate the partitioning of the radionuclides to the evaporator condensate, since ample data are available separately from other experience in the DOE complex. Results from the evaporation testing show that the neutral SBS simulant first forms turbidity at ~7.5X concentration, while the alkaline-adjusted simulant became turbid at ~3X concentration. The major solid in both cases was Kogarkoite, Na3FSO4. Sodium and lithium fluorides were also detected. Minimal solids were formed in the evaporator bottoms until a substantial fraction of liquid was removed, indicating that evaporation could minimize storage volume issues. Achievable concentration factors without significant insoluble solids were 17X at alkaline pH, and 23X at neutral pH. In both runs, significant ammonia carried over and was captured in the condenser with the water condensate. Results also indicate that with low insoluble solids formation in the initial testing at neutral pH, the use of Reverse Osmosis is a potential alternate method for concentrating the solution, although an evaluation is needed to identify equipment that can tolerate insoluble solids. Most of the ammonia remains in the evaporator bottoms during the neutral pH evaporation, but partitions to the condensate during alkaline evaporation. Disposition of both streams needs to consider the management of ammonia vapor and its release. Since this is an initial phase of testing, additional tasks related to evaporation methods are expected to be identified for development. These tasks likely include evaluation and testing of composition variability testing and evaluations, corrosion and erosion testing, slurry storage and immobilization investigations, and evaporator condensate disposition.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

n-Propylbenzene Droplet Combustion: Experiments and Numerical Modeling

n-Propylbenzene (PB, C9H12, 432K boiling point) is important as a constituent in surrogates for some transportation fuels but little is understood about its droplet burning characteristics. We present an experimental and numerical study of a fuel droplet burning under conditions where the sole means of gas transport is fuel evaporation at the droplet surface thereby creating a one-dimensional gas transport that is amenable to detailed numerical modeling. The one-dimensional gas transport that results is amenable to detailed numerical modeling. Initial droplet diameters (Do) ranged from 0.3 mm to about 5 mm to better understand the mechanisms that control burning over such a wide range of Do. For Do < 1 mm droplets were burned while anchored to 14 m SiC fibers within a sealed container in free-fall during which time the droplets were ignited by spark discharge and the burning process recorded by video cameras. Larger and free-floating droplets were studied in the spaced-based platform of the orbiting International Space Station for Do > 1.0 mm which provided unlimited times for experimental observation. Measurements of droplet, flame and soot shell diameters were made and are discussed in the presentation. The experimental results showed formation of optically thick soot clouds developing during burning that required a robust image analysis algorithm to enable measurement of droplet diameter. The measured droplet diameters were well predicted by a numerical model that included soot formation, a PB kinetic mechanism comprising 576 species and 27369 reactions, unsteady gas and liquid transport, variable properties and radiative transport. Flame diameters showed more variability compared to the simulations, depending on how the flame was defined (peak gas temperature and OH concentration). Droplets burned slower as Do was increased and the PB sooting propensity increased with Do. Flame extinction was observed for Do > 3.3 mm indicating a strong effect of radiation as Do was increased compared to the smaller droplet diameters examined where extinction was not experimentally observed. For the largest droplets examined the possibility that the observed extinction is indicative of a transition to cool flame burning is still under investigation.

Guo, Songtao↗

A method for diagnosing surface parameters using geostationary satellite imagery and a boundary-layer model

A method for diagnosing surface parameters on a regional scale via geosynchronous satellite imagery is presented. Moisture availability, thermal inertia, atmospheric heat flux, and total evaporation are determined from three infrared images obtained from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). Three GOES images (early morning, midafternoon, and night) are obtained from computer tape. Two temperature-difference images are then created. The boundary-layer model is run, and its output is inverted via cubic regression equations. The satellite imagery is efficiently converted into output-variable fields. All computations are executed on a PDP 11/34 minicomputer. Output fields can be produced within one hour of the availability of aligned satellite subimages of a target area.

Polansky, A. C.↗

Using an Isotope Enabled Mass Balance to Evaluate Existing Land Surface Models

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) play a crucial role in elucidating water and carbon cycles by simulating processes such as plant transpiration and evaporation from bare soil, yet calibration often relies on comparing LSM outputs of landscape total evapotranspiration ( ET ) and discharge with measured bulk fluxes. Discrepancies in partitioning into component fluxes predicted by various LSMs have been noted, prompting the need for improved evaluation methods. Stable water isotopes serve as effective tracers of component hydrologic fluxes, but data and model integration challenges have hindered their widespread application. Leveraging National Ecological Observation Network measurements of water isotope ratios at 16 US sites over 3 years combined with LSM‐modeled fluxes, we employed an isotope‐enabled mass balance framework to simulate ET isotope values ( δET ) within three operational LSMs (Mosaic, Noah, and VIC) to evaluate their partitioning. Models simulating δET values consistent with observations were deemed more reflective of water cycling in these ecosystems. Mosaic exhibited the best overall performance (Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.28). For both Mosaic and Noah there were robust correlations between bare soil evaporation fraction and error (negative) as well as transpiration fraction and error (positive). We found the point at which errors are smallest ( x ‐intercept of the multi‐site regression) is at a higher transpiration fraction than is currently specified in the models. Which means that transpiration fraction is underestimated on average. Stable isotope tracers offer an additional tool for model evaluation and identifying areas for improvement, potentially enhancing LSM simulations and our understanding of land‐surface hydrologic processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Performance simulation of the JPL solar-powered distiller. Part 1: Quasi-steady-state conditions

A 37.85 cu m (10,000 gallons) per year (nominal) passive solar powered water distillation system was installed and is operational in the Venus Deep Space Station. The system replaced an old, electrically powered water distiller. The distilled water produced with its high electrical resistivity is used to cool the sensitive microwave equipment. A detailed thermal model was developed to simulate the performance of the distiller and study its sensitivity under varying environment and load conditions. The quasi-steady state portion of the model is presented together with the formulas for heat and mass transfer coefficients used. Initial results indicated that a daily water evaporation efficiency of 30% can be achieved. A comparison made between a full day performance simulation and the actual field measurements gave good agreement between theory and experiment, which verified the model.

Yung, C. S.↗

Meteoritic Constraints on Models of the Solar Nebula: The Abundances of Moderately Volatile Elements

The "moderately volatile" elements are those which condense (or evaporate) in the temperature range 650 - 1350 K, as a mix of material with solar abundances is cooled (or heated) under equilibrium conditions. Their relative abundances in chondritic meteorites are solar (or "cosmic", as defined by tile composition of CI meteorites) to within a factor of several, but vary within that range in a way that correlates remarkably well with condensation temperature, independent of chemical affinity. It has been argued that this correlation reflects a systematically selective process which favored the accretion of refractory material over volatile material from a cooling nebula. Wasson and Chou suggested that condensation and settling of solids contemporaneously with the cooling and removal of nebular gas could produce tile observed abundance patterns, but a quantitative model has been lacking. We show that the abundance patterns of the moderately volatile elements in chondritic meteorites can be produced, in some degree of quantitative detail, by models of the solar nebula that are designed to conform to observations of T Tauri stars and the global conservation laws. For example, even if the local surface density of the nebula is not decreasing, condensation and accretion of solids from radially inflowing gas in a cooling nebula can result in depletions of volatiles, relative to refractories, like those observed. The details of the calculated abundance patterns depend on (but are not especially sensitive to) model parameters, and can exhibit the variations that distinguish the meteorite classes. Thus it appears that nebula characteristics Such as cooling rates, radial flow velocities, and particle accumulation rates can be quantitatively constrained by demanding that they conform to meteoritic data; and the models, in turn, can produce testable hypotheses regarding the time and location of the formation of the chondrite parent bodies and the planets.

Cassen, P.↗

Towards a Techno-Economic Analysis of PCM Integrated Hybrid HVAC Systems

Thermal end uses dominate building energy consumption and are a major driver of peak demand. As heating is electrified, peak electrical power required will surge, prompting a need for innovative HVAC system designs and controls.These designs must incorporate novel technologies at the component level and new integration techniques at the system level. One such possibility involves the addition of thermal energy storage (TES) in heating and cooling equipment using a phase change material (PCM) heat exchanger. Here, thermal energy storage via phase change can be used to shift the HVAC system loads to times of lower electricity cost, reduced carbon intensity, and greater energy efficiency. Most of the current utilization of PCM in buildings involves passive components. By actively controlling when heat is stored and released from PCM, we can optimize the building HVAC system to cost-effectively meet consumer needs with the flexibility to draw on renewable energy resources when they are abundant and available. While this combination of technologies is promising in theory, simulation-based evaluation of a prototype can be difficult due to the modeling requirements at the component level and the large number of possible configurations and operating modes at the system level. To conduct this evaluation, we use the Modelica language for modeling and simulation because it enables users to represent the important physics of the problem, interchange and rearrange components in an efficient manner, and implement a range of control configurations. In this work, we considered three case studies: a portable building, a large commercial retail store, and a multifamily residential apartment unit. Each of these employs a different system design, ranging from a single package vertical unit incorporating PCM to a central plant with independent heat pump, evaporative cooling, and thermal energy storage components. This paper describes the technologies in question, presents modeling at the component and system levels, and demonstrates building energy and demand charge cost savings with local time-of-use tariffs in a hot-dry climate.

Helmns, Dre↗

Dominance of ENSO-Like Variability in Controlling Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes in the Satellite Era

Ocean surface turbulent and radiative fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Moreover, interannual to decadal climate variability depends crucially on the nature of these exchange processes. For example, addressing the question of the degree to which the global hydrologic cycle is changing depends on our ability to observe and model these fluxes accurately. In this work we investigate the interannual to decadal variation of fluxes over the global tropics, especially the tropical oceans. Recent versions of satellite-derived fresh water flux estimates as well as some reanalyses (e.g. products from Remote Sensing Systems, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project) suggest that increases in evaporation and precipitation over the past 20 years exceed those expected on the basis of climate model projected responses to greenhouse gas forcing. At the same time, it is well known that E1 Nino / Southern Oscillation behavior in the Pacific exhibits significant variability at scales longer than interannual. We examine here the degree to which surface fluxes attending these interannual to decadal fluctuations are related to ENSO. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Modeled estimates of permafrost hydrology and related fields for pan-Arctic region over the period 1980-2100

This dataset contains gridded estimates of total runoff (mm/day); subsurface runoff (mm/day); snow water equivalent (SWE, mm/day); vertical upward water flux of combined surface evaporation, evapotranspiration, and snow sublimation (mm/day); and soil temperature (C) across the pan-Arctic basin from simulations of the Permafrost Water Balance Model (PWBM v4). These data were generated to allow researchers to advance understanding of the changes unfolding in the Arctic's terrestrial water cycle under the influences of climate warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw. The dataset will enable researchers to address important questions spanning multiple disciplines. For example, how will rising river flows exported to the coast impact critical zone ecosystems, near-shore ice dynamics, and ocean biogeochemical processes. Spatial resolution is 25x25 km with N=39926 grid cells spanning the domain. Three forcing datasets were used to drive simulations at an implicit daily time step over the period 1980-2100. Daily air temperature, precipitation, and wind speed data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 reanalysis (W5E5) were used for meteorological forcings over the period 1980-2019. Simulations for the period 1980-2100 used meteorological data from two global climate models; IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. The PWBM hydrological outputs are organized by grid and month in gzipped ASCII text files within each archived tar file. Soil temperature is organized by grid cell and day of year from DOY 205 to DOY 260. No special software is required to work with these data. The package contains spatial domain and river basin information files. These data are most useful for analyses of the spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil thermal dynamics. A manuscript describing the model simulations and associated analysis has been accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (Rawlins and Karmalkar, 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilization of municipal wastewater for cooling in thermoelectric power plants

A process simulation model has been developed using Aspen Plus® with the OLI (OLI System, Inc.) water chemistry model to predict water quality in the recirculating cooling loop utilizing secondary- and tertiary-treated municipal wastewater as the source of makeup water. Simulation results were compared with pilot-scale experimental data on makeup water alkalinity, loop pH, and ammonia evaporation. The effects of various parameters including makeup water quality, salt formation, NH 3 and CO 2 evaporation mass transfer coefficients, heat load, and operating temperatures were investigated. The results indicate that, although the simulation model can capture the general trends in the loop pH, experimental data on the rates of salt precipitation in the system are needed for more accurate prediction of the loop pH. It was also found that stripping of ammonia and carbon dioxide in the cooling tower can influence the cooling loop pH significantly. The effects of the NH 3 mass transfer coefficient on cooling loop pH appear to be more significant at lower values (e.g., k NH3 < 4×10 -3 m/s) when the makeup water alkalinity is low (e.g., <90 mg/L as CaCO 3 ). The effect of the CO2 mass transfer coefficient was found to be significant only at lower alkalinity values (e.g., k CO2 <4×10 -6 m/s).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Determination of vegetated fraction of surface from satellite measurements

One input to the ground hydrology component of general circulation models is the fraction of gridbox covered (i.e., shaded) by vegetation. The FV is needed in order to specify the partitioning of evaporation between vegetated and nonvegetated surfaces. Satellite data could provide global and seasonally varying specification of FV. In this work, FV is derived from Landsat data for a site in western Kenya; the accuracy of the estimate is evaluated and then compared to the accuracy requirements of a ground hydrology model. Results show that the accuracy of Landsat estimation of FV is + or - 5 percent and that transpiration, evaporation from bare soil and the seasonality of evapotranspiration are strongly dependent on FV.

Cary, Ernestine↗

Analysis of 2H-Evaporator Acid Cleaning Samples

The 2H-Evaporator acid cleaning solution samples were analyzed by SRNL to determine a composition for the scale present in the evaporator before recent acid cleaning. Composite samples were formed from the solution samples from the two acid cleaning cycles. The solution composition was converted to a weight percent scale solids basis under an assumed chemical composition. The scale composition produced from the acid cleaning solution samples indicates a concentration of 6.85 wt% uranium. An upper bound, onesided 95% confidence interval on the weight percent uranium value may be given as 6.9 wt% + 1.645 × 0.596 wt% = 7.9 wt%. The comparison of the composition from the current acid cleaning solutions with the composition of recent scale samples along with the thermodynamic modeling results provides reasonable assurance that the sample results provide a good representation of the overall scale composition in the evaporator prior to acid cleaning. The small amount of scale solids dissolved in the 1.5 M nitric acid during the evaporator cleaning process likely produced only a small amount of precipitation based on modeling results and the visual appearance of the samples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

FORMING CHONDRULES IN IMPACT SPLASHES. II. VOLATILE RETENTION

Solving the mystery of the origin of chondrules is one of the most elusive goals in the field of meteoritics. Recently, the idea of planet(esimal) collisions releasing splashes of lava droplets, long considered out of favor, has been reconsidered as a possible origin of chondrules by several papers. One of the main problems with this idea is the lack of quantitative and simple models that can be used to test this scenario by directly comparing to the many known observables of chondrules. In Paper I of this series, we presented a simple thermal evolution model of a spherically symmetric expanding cloud of molten lava droplets that is assumed to emerge from a collision between two planetesimals. The production of lava could be either because the two planetesimals were already in a largely molten (or almost molten) state due to heating by {sup 26}Al, or due to impact jetting at higher impact velocities. In the present paper, number II of this series, we use this model to calculate whether or not volatile elements such as Na and K will remain abundant in these droplets or whether they will get depleted due to evaporation. The high density of the droplet cloud (e.g., small distance between adjacent droplets) causes the vapor to quickly reach saturation pressure and thus shuts down further evaporation. We show to what extent, and under which conditions, this keeps the abundances of these elements high, as is seen in chondrules. We find that for most parameters of our model (cloud mass, expansion velocity, initial temperature) the volatile elements Mg, Si, and Fe remain entirely in the chondrules. The Na and K abundances inside the droplets will initially stay mostly at their initial values due to the saturation of the vapor pressure, but at some point start to drop due to the cloud expansion. However, as soon as the temperature starts to decrease, most or all of the vapor recondenses again. At the end, the Na and K elements retain most of their initial abundances, albeit occasionally somewhat reduced, depending on the parameters of the expanding cloud model. These findings appear to be qualitatively consistent with the analysis of Semarkona Type II chondrules by Hewins et al. who found evidence for sodium evaporation followed by recondensation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗

A Review of Modeling Approaches for Predicting Frost Growth and Defrosting on Tube-Fin Heat Exchangers: Preprint

Frost formation and growth on the evaporator surface is a common process that deteriorates the air-refrigerant heat transfer and restricts airflow. This degrades the performance of the vapor compression system by increasing temperature lift and air-side pressure drop. To accurately predict these effects during coil frosting, as well as the energy use and duration of the defrost process, there is a need to estimate the heat and mass transfer, momentum transport, and solid-liquid and liquid-vapor phase change. Therefore, in the past few decades, continuous effort has been made to model frosting and defrosting processes using approaches ranging from empirical correlations to computational fluid dynamic models. To provide a clearer overview for researchers, engineers, and manufacturers in this field, this paper provides a comprehensive literature review for frosting and defrosting models. The paper begins with theoretical background of frost formation and defrost processes, and then reviews the common modeling approaches in literature and their underlying assumptions when trying to account for various physical phenomenon. Based on the literature review, the most critical modeling effort for frost formation is the determination of frost densification rate and frost growth rate. Various methods to predict these two parameters are reviewed. Empirical correlations commonly used for frost density and thermal conductivity are presented and compared. For the defrost process, various multi-stage models have been proposed with different assumptions. Some assume the presence of air gap between the tube wall and the frost, while others consider the melted frost flow due to gravity. We also review physics-based and empirical approaches to integrate defrost models into heat pump models. We conclude by identifying research gaps and providing recommendations.

defrost↗