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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

Abstract. The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures ( T ) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θ e ) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θ e are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity ( Q ) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights ( Z ), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture ( SM ). SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θ e over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θ e . Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T , synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and SM ). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θ e , where more complex models built using ANN with multiple hidden layers are better able to capture the day-to-day variability in θ e and the occurrence of extreme maximum θ e . Over the entire domain, the ANN with three hidden layers exhibits high accuracy in predicting maximum θ e > 347 K. The median hit rate for maximum θ e >347 K is > 0.60, while the median false alarm rate is ≈ 0.08.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Selecting a Classification Ensemble and Detecting Process Drift in an Evolving Data Stream

We characterize the commercial behavior of a group of companies in a common line of business using a small ensemble of classifiers on a stream of records containing commercial activity information. This approach is able to effectively find a subset of classifiers that can be used to predict company labels with reasonable accuracy. Performance of the ensemble, its error rate under stable conditions, can be characterized using an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic. The behavior of the EWMA statistic can be used to monitor a record stream from the commercial network and determine when significant changes have occurred. Results indicate that larger classification ensembles may not necessarily be optimal, pointing to the need to search the combinatorial classifier space in a systematic way. Results also show that current and past performance of an ensemble can be used to detect when statistically significant changes in the activity of the network have occurred. The dataset used in this work contains tens of thousands of high level commercial activity records with continuous and categorical variables and hundreds of labels, making classification challenging.

Ensemble classifiers↗

A Case Study of MPI Over Long Distance Connections

Scientific workflows are increasingly being distributed across wide-area networks, and their code executions are expected to span across geographically dispersed computing systems. MPI has been extensively used to support communications for distributed computations, typically, over compute clusters and high-performance systems within a single facility. We present a case study of performance of MPI basic operations over long distance connections, wherein TCP is used for the underlying transport. We present measurements of execution times of MPI codes that utilize MPI Sendrecv operations over emulated 10Gbps connections with 0-366ms round-trip times, including the longest one spanning the globe. They demonstrate that basic MPI codes can be sustained over long distance connections under external packet loss rates up to 10%. They also highlight the qualitative effects of losses which manifest as increased execution times as a consequence of TCP’s loss recovery process.

Rao, Nageswara S.↗

Core-collapse contamination in photometric samples of Type Ia Supernovae

This is an exciting time for cosmology with type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). The recentlyconcluded Dark Energy Survey SN programme (DES-SN) has obtained the largest anddeepest high-redshift cosmological SN Ia sample, and the Vera Rubin Observatory isexpected to observe at least one order of magnitude more SNe Ia in the next decade.In both these experiments, only a limited fraction (.10 per cent) of the SNe can bespectroscopically classified. This leaves us with large ‘photometric’ SN samples, withthe potential for significant contamination by core-collapse SNe that may bias SN Iacosmological measurements. This thesis demonstrates how this contamination can bemodelled and accounted for in current and future cosmological analyses.First, I present state-of-the-art simulations of the SN universe. These are designedto accurately model the population of SNe Ia, peculiar SNe Ia and core-collapse SNe, aswell as their host galaxies. To improve the diversity and quality of the simulated corecollapseSNe, I build a new library of core-collapse SN templates using spectroscopicand photometric (optical and near-ultraviolet) data of 67 core-collapse SNe from theliterature. I account for our incomplete knowledge of core-collapse SN properties bygenerating a set of SN simulations (rather than a single one), each exploring differentmodelling choices and template libraries. I then characterise selection effects in theDES-SN survey and incorporate them in the simulations, thus obtaining a series ofDES-like simulated SN samples that can be compared to the observed DES-SN data.The agreement between the simulations and data is excellent across many observed SNproperties, including Hubble residuals. These simulations are the first to reproduce theobserved photometric SN and host galaxy properties in high-redshift surveys with no fine-tuning of the input parameters.I use my simulation framework to train and test the performance of SuperNNova,a photometric SN classifier based on recurrent neural networks. I explore differenttraining and validation strategies and show that, across all the DES-SN simulationstested, SuperNNova reduces core-collapse SN contamination to 0.8–3.5 per cent. Ithen show that biases due to contamination on the equation-of-state of dark energy,w, are < 0:008 when using our reference SuperNNova model. This compares to anexpected statistical uncertainty on w from the DES-SN sample of 0:039, thus showing that contamination is not a limiting systematic for the cosmological analysis of theDES-SN sample.The results presented in this thesis are the foundation of the DES SN Ia cosmologicalanalysis; they also provide important implications for the future of SN cosmology,as they demonstrate that contamination is not expected to significantly degrade thecosmological figure of merit of the Rubin SN Ia analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Real-time confinement regime detection in fusion plasmas with convolutional neural networks and high-bandwidth edge fluctuation measurements

Abstract A real-time detection of the plasma confinement regime can enable new advanced plasma control capabilities for both the access to and sustainment of enhanced confinement regimes in fusion devices. For example, a real-time indication of the confinement regime can facilitate transition to the high-performing wide-pedestal (WP) quiescent H-mode, or avoid unwanted transitions to lower confinement regimes that may induce plasma termination. To demonstrate real-time confinement regime detection, we use the 2D beam emission spectroscopy (BES) diagnostic system to capture localized density fluctuations of long wavelength turbulent modes in the edge region at a 1 MHz sampling rate. BES data from 330 discharges in either L-mode, H-mode, quiescent H (QH)-mode, or WP QH-mode were collected from the DIII-D tokamak and curated to develop a high-quality database to train a deep-learning classification model for real-time confinement detection. We utilize the 6×8 spatial configuration with a time window of 1024 µ s and recast the input to obtain spectral-like features via fast Fourier transform preprocessing. We employ a shallow 3D convolutional neural network for the multivariate time-series classification task and utilize a softmax in the final dense layer to retrieve a probability distribution over the different confinement regimes. Our model classifies the global confinement state on 44 unseen test discharges with an average F 1 score of 0.94, using only ∼1 ms snippets of BES data at a time. This activity demonstrates the feasibility for real-time data analysis of fluctuation diagnostics in future devices such as ITER, where the need for reliable and advanced plasma control is urgent.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Adaptive behavior and different thermal experiences of real people: A Bayesian neural network approach to thermal preference prediction and classification

Various observed and unquantifiable factors affect the thermal comfort of occupants in indoor environments and can lead to high uncertainty in the prediction and classification of their thermal preferences. The behavioral adaptation of occupants, by operating window systems for example, changes their thermal experience and expectations and therefore contributes to even higher prediction uncertainty. In this study, we applied a Bayesian neural network (BNN) algorithm to build a predictive model for occupant thermal preference using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II. The Bayesian method allows us to synthesize prior knowledge and available measurements into a unified modeling framework. It also offers a way to express and quantify uncertainty. Here we have performed a systematic study to test the efficiency and robustness of different BNN model configurations. In this study, the results show that the BNN model outperforms conventional thermal comfort models such as Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and adaptive comfort model. The BNN model tends to produce more confident “prefer cooler” predictions with high possibility and low uncertainty. In contrast, the BNN model produces less certain predictions for “prefer no change” and “prefer warmer” across all occupants. Our findings suggest that linking occupants’ subjective evaluation measures and window opening/closing behavior to thermal comfort modeling effectively improves predictive performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A framework to evaluate machine learning crystal stability predictions

The rapid adoption of machine learning in various scientific domains calls for the development of best practices and community agreed-upon benchmarking tasks and metrics. We present Matbench Discovery as an example evaluation framework for machine learning energy models, here applied as pre-filters to first-principles computed data in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (1) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (2) retrospective and prospective benchmarking for materials discovery. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with adaptive user-defined weighting of various performance metrics allowing researchers to prioritize the metrics they value most. To answer the question of which machine learning methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release includes random forests, graph neural networks, one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials. We highlight a misalignment between commonly used regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics for materials discovery. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV per atom above the convex hull. The benchmark results demonstrate that universal interatomic potentials have advanced sufficiently to effectively and cheaply pre-screen thermodynamic stable hypothetical materials in future expansions of high-throughput materials databases.

Riebesell, Janosh↗

Understanding Water Transport in Polymer Electrolyte Fuel Cells Using Coupled Continuum and Pore-Network Models

Water management remains a critical issue for polymer electrolyte fuel cell performance and durability, especially at lower temperatures and with ultrathin electrodes. To understand and explain experimental observations better, water transport in gas diffusion layers (GDLs) with macroscopically heterogeneous morphologies was simulated using a novel coupling of continuum and pore-network models. X-ray computed tomography was used to extract GDL material parameters for use in the pore-network model. The simulations were conducted to explain experimental observations associated with stacking of anode GDLs, where stacking of the anode GDLs increased the limiting current density. Through imaging, it is shown that the stacked anode GDL exhibited an interfacial region of high porosity. The coupled model shows that this morphology allowed more efficient water movement through the anode and higher temperatures at the cathode compared to the single GDL case. As a result, the cathode exhibited less flooding and hence better low temperature performance with the stacked anode GDL.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Built‐in Carbon Nanotube Network inside a Biomass‐Derived Hierarchically Porous Carbon to Enhance the Performance of the Sulfur Cathode in a Li‐S Battery

Abstract The practical application of lithium‐sulfur batteries is usually hindered by the unstable discharge intermediates and the low conductivity of the sulfur cathode. Herein, we propose to improve the performance of the sulfur cathode by introducing a built‐in carbon nanotube network inside a biomass‐derived hierarchically porous carbon for the subsequent sulfur loading. This balanced structural design of the carbon substrate enables effective trapping of active sulfur within the cathode and provides a highly efficient pathway for electron transmission, contributing to an increased conductivity and structural integrity of the cathode. By using a potentiostatic process at the end of charge, the reversibility of the electrode reaction of sulfur is improved. The sulfur cathode delivers an initial discharge capacity of 1739 mA h g −1 and reaches a high initial Columbic efficiency of 87.6 %, and maintains its efficiency to >97.5 % from the 2nd cycle. It also shows admirable cycling and rate performance.

Xu, Da‐Wei↗

Novel usage of deep learning and high-performance computing in long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments

Mención Internacional en el título de doctorDeep-learning methods are playing a crucial role in numerous scientific and industrialapplications. Over the past two decades, these techniques have helped in the collection,reconstruction, and analysis of large data samples in particle physics experiments. Themain topic of this PhD research is the study of deep-learning techniques in long-baselineneutrino oscillation experiments. Neutrinos are mysterious light elementary particles,and their investigation is essential to shed light on some of the remaining open questionsin physics. The work presented here describes an algorithm based on a convolutionalneural network developed to provide highly accurate and efficient selections of electronneutrino and muon neutrino interactions in the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment(DUNE). With this algorithm, the electron neutrino (antineutrino) selection efficiencypeaks at 90% (94%) and exceeds 85% (90%) for reconstructed neutrino energies between2-5 GeV. The selection efficiency for muon neutrino (antineutrino) interactions is foundto have a maximum of 96% (97%) and exceeds 90% (95%) efficiency for reconstructedneutrino energies above 2 GeV. When considering all electron neutrino and antineutrinointeractions as signal (both those appearing from oscillations and those intrinsic tothe beam), a selection purity of 90% is achieved. These event selections are criticalto maximise the sensitivity of the experiment to CP-violating effects, key to furtherunderstand the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the Universe.In high-energy physics experiments, deep learning has also been explored for producingfast simulations and physically-motivated manipulations of simulated images. Some ofthose simulations, such as the light production and detection, are very computationallyexpensive and require novel methods to produce the necessary samples while controllingthe varied underlying physics model parameters. To do so, we invented the model-assistedgenerative adversarial network (MAGAN), first validated on simple generic case studiesand then successfully applied to the DUNE photon-detector simulation.Moreover, we also developed graph neural networks for 3D-voxel classification ofambiguities and optical crosstalk for a different particle physics experiment, most preciselyfor the proposed SuperFGD. This novel 3D-granular plastic-scintillator neutrino detectorwill be used to upgrade the near detector of the T2K neutrino oscillation experiment, and our method reports efficiencies and purities of 94-96% per event in the classificationof particle track voxels.Due to the growth and complexity of deep neural networks, researchers have beeninvestigating techniques to train those networks in a more computationally-efficient way.Many efforts have been made by the community to optimise deep-learning models byparallelising or distributing their training computation across multiple devices. In thisthesis, we study an approach based on data locality for those neural networks that cannotbenefit from scaling their computation due to a significant bottleneck in the data I/O.The research also includes a detailed study on the performance of deep neural networkson hardware accelerator boards.Los métodos de aprendizaje profundo son cada vez más utilizados en numerosas aplicacionescientíficas e industriales hoy en día. Durante las dos últimas décadas, estastécnicas se han empleado en la recolección, reconstrucción y análisis de la gran cantidadde datos generados por experimentos de física de partículas. El tema principal de estatesis doctoral es el uso de estos modelos de aprendizaje profundo en experimentos defísica de neutrinos, en concreto en los experimentos de larga distancia DUNE y T2K. Losneutrinos, partículas fundamentales neutras, de las más ligeras del Universo, pueden serclave para explicar algunas de las cuestiones todavía sin resolver en física fundamental.Entre las diferentes contribuciones que esta tesis ha hecho a su estudio, cabe destacar eldesarrollo de un algoritmo basado en una red de neuronas convolucional para seleccionarcon gran eficiencia y precisión las interacciones de neutrinos electrónicos y muónicos enel Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). La eficiencia de selección obtenidapara neutrinos (antineutrinos) electrónicos alcanza un máximo del 90% (94%) y supera el85% (90%) para neutrinos con energías reconstruidas en el rango 2-5 GeV. La selección deneutrinos (antineutrinos) muónicos tiene una eficiencia máxima del 96% (97%) y excedeel 90% (95%) para neutrinos con energías reconstruidas de más de 2 GeV. Considerandocomo señal todas las interacciones de neutrinos y antineutrinos electrónicos (procedentestanto de oscilaciones como intrínsecos en el haz inicial), se logra una pureza en la seleccióndel 90%. Dichas selecciones de eventos son fundamentales para maximizar la sensibilidaddel experimento a los efectos de violació...

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Performance of a geometric deep learning pipeline for HL-LHC particle tracking

The Exa.TrkX project has applied geometric learning concepts such as metric learning and graph neural networks to HEP particle tracking. Exa.TrkX’s tracking pipeline groups detector measurements to form track candidates and filters them. The pipeline, originally developed using the TrackML dataset (a simulation of an LHC-inspired tracking detector), has been demonstrated on other detectors, including DUNE Liquid Argon TPC and CMS High-Granularity Calorimeter. This paper documents new developments needed to study the physics and computing performance of the Exa.TrkX pipeline on the full TrackML dataset, a first step towards validating the pipeline using ATLAS and CMS data. The pipeline achieves tracking efficiency and purity similar to production tracking algorithms. Crucially for future HEP applications, the pipeline benefits significantly from GPU acceleration, and its computational requirements scale close to linearly with the number of particles in the event.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DeepCMB: Lensing reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background with deep neural networks

Next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments will have lower noise and therefore increased sensitivity, enabling improved constraints on fundamental physics parameters such as the sum of neutrino masses and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. Achieving competitive constraints on these parameters requires high signal-to-noise extraction of the projected gravitational potential from the CMB maps. Standard methods for reconstructing the lensing potential employ the quadratic estimator (QE). However, the QE performs suboptimally at the low noise levels expected in upcoming experiments. Other methods, like maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), are under active development. In this work, we demonstrate reconstruction of the CMB lensing potential with deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) - ie, a ResUNet. The network is trained and tested on simulated data, and otherwise has no physical parametrization related to the physical processes of the CMB and gravitational lensing. We show that, over a wide range of angular scales, ResUNets recover the input gravitational potential with a higher signal-to-noise ratio than the QE method, reaching levels comparable to analytic approximations of MLE methods. We demonstrate that the network outputs quantifiably different lensing maps when given input CMB maps generated with different cosmologies. We also show we can use the reconstructed lensing map for cosmological parameter estimation. This application of CNN provides a few innovations at the intersection of cosmology and machine learning. First, while training and regressing on images, we predict a continuous-variable field rather than discrete classes. Second, we are able to establish uncertainty measures for the network output that are analogous to standard methods. We expect this approach to excel in capturing hard-to-model non-Gaussian astrophysical foreground and noise contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DeepCMB: Lensing Reconstruction of the CMB with Deep Neural Networks

Next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments will have lower noise and therefore increased sensitivity, enabling improved constraints on fundamental physics parameters such as the sum of neutrino masses and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. Achieving competitive constraints on these parameters requires high signal-to-noise extraction of the projected gravitational potential from the CMB maps. Standard methods for reconstructing the lensing potential employ the quadratic estimator (QE). However, the QE performs suboptimally at the low noise levels expected in upcoming experiments. Other methods, like maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), are under active development. In this work, we demonstrate reconstruction of the CMB lensing potential with deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) - ie, a ResUNet. The network is trained and tested on simulated data, and otherwise has no physical parametrization related to the physical processes of the CMB and gravitati onal lensing. We show that, over a wide range of angular scales, ResUNets recover the input gravitational potential with a higher signal-to-noise ratio than the QE method, reaching levels comparable to analytic approximations of MLE methods. We demonstrate that the network outputs quantifiably different lensing maps when given input CMB maps generated with different cosmologies. We also show we can use the reconstructed lensing map for cosmological parameter estimation. This application of CNN provides a few innovations at the intersection of cosmology and machine learning. First, while training and regressing on images, we predict a continuous-variable field rather than discrete classes. Second, we are able to establish uncertainty measures for the network output that are analogous to standard methods. We expect this approach to excel in capturing hard-to-model non-Gaussian astrophysical foreground and noise contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Data-Driven Multi-Period Importance Sampling Strategy for Stochastic Economic Dispatch

Power systems with high penetrations of renewable energy (e.g., wind power) require sophisticated approaches to optimize system performance due to uncertainty in short-term system generation capacity. In this paper, we combine a data-driven analog scenario selection method with importance sampling to create a novel scenario construction approach for two-stage stochastic economic dispatch problems with a large number of wind farms on a network. The proposed method produces scenarios with realistic physics by finding high-fidelity analogs that can describe future states of the system. We show how to extend this method to multi-period operations and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique by simulating economic dispatch operations on a synthetic test system over the course of a week.

data-driven forecasting↗

Integrated photonic encoder for low power and high-speed image processing

Abstract Modern lens designs are capable of resolving greater than 10 gigapixels, while advances in camera frame-rate and hyperspectral imaging have made data acquisition rates of Terapixel/second a real possibility. The main bottlenecks preventing such high data-rate systems are power consumption and data storage. In this work, we show that analog photonic encoders could address this challenge, enabling high-speed image compression using orders-of-magnitude lower power than digital electronics. Our approach relies on a silicon-photonics front-end to compress raw image data, foregoing energy-intensive image conditioning and reducing data storage requirements. The compression scheme uses a passive disordered photonic structure to perform kernel-type random projections of the raw image data with minimal power consumption and low latency. A back-end neural network can then reconstruct the original images with structural similarity exceeding 90%. This scheme has the potential to process data streams exceeding Terapixel/second using less than 100 fJ/pixel, providing a path to ultra-high-resolution data and image acquisition systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Frontier Job-Centric Telemetry Dataset

Comprehensive analysis of high-performance computing (HPC) systems requires linking workload execution to system behavior. This kind of analysis is vital for diagnosing performance issues, managing capacity, detecting anomalous workloads, and understanding how applications interact with system hardware. This job-centric telemetry dataset unifies scheduler job records with node-level measurements, enabling direct association between workloads and their corresponding power, thermal, and performance characteristics. It contains sanitized, scheduler related metadata for 152,400 individual jobs that ran on the Frontier supercomputer and ended on selected days throughout 2024 and 2025, a subpopulation of ~6.8% of the total number of allocated jobs with non-zero run time on the system over that same period. Each is linked with files that contain telemetry time series records of the power utilization and temperature behavior of its allocated nodes and their processors during the run time of the job. Where available, a portion of the job files also contain network performance time series. Jobs are sampled from select days that reflect normal levels of user activity and possess job size distributions with large numbers of leadership class jobs (>20% of Frontier nodes). Jobs in this dataset attempt to best represent successful user workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Sparse Distributed Gigascale Resolution Material Point Method

In this paper, we present a four-layer distributed simulation system and its adaptation to the Material Point Method (MPM). The system is built upon a performance portable C++ programming model targeting major High-Performance-Computing (HPC) platforms. A key ingredient of our system is a hierarchical block-tile-cell sparse grid data structure that is distributable to an arbitrary number of Message Passing Interface (MPI) ranks. We additionally propose strategies for efficient dynamic load balance optimization to maximize the efficiency of MPI tasks. Our simulation pipeline can easily switch among backend programming models, including OpenMP and CUDA, and can be effortlessly dispatched onto supercomputers and the cloud. Finally, we construct benchmark experiments and ablation studies on supercomputers and consumer workstations in a local network to evaluate the scalability and load balancing criteria. We demonstrate massively parallel, highly scalable, and gigascale resolution MPM simulations of up to 1.01 billion particles for less than 323.25 seconds per frame with 8 OpenSSH-connected workstations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗