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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Affordable Development Strategy for NEP Nuclear Systems

One nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) reactor systems under consideration is a hydride moderated thermal spectrum reactor fueled by high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). While such a reactor is expected to yield the lightest HALEU reactor design, its development challenges grow exponentially with increasing mission demands, most notably power output, specific weight of the overall system (which may require operation at temperatures exceeding 1200 K), service lifetime, and human-rated reliability. Two of the greatest cost drivers are full-powered nuclear demonstrations and extensive material development campaigns, so it is important to consider options that can minimize the need for or complexity of such tasks. This paper discusses a structured framework being developed for assessing how NEP design choices, such as materials selection, neutronic features, and heat-removal technologies, can translate into project risk and how project performance goals can be traded with development cost.Reactors operating at high temperatures often require cutting-edge heat transfer technologies and creep-resistant materials. Use of new materials in high temperature reactors brings additional complication beyond those common to any new space materials development campaign. For example, such materials may not possess necessary neutronic cross-sectional or neutronic irradiation data. Similarly, use of new materials may significantly influence core neutronics; in some extreme cases, neutronic reactivity feed-back of certain new materials can vary during their service life as radiation damage impacts the scattering cross-section. In an affordable development approach, high fidelity modeling and simulation tools are used to identify and characterize potential ‘knees-in-the-curves’ in the relationship that exists between the mission characteristics and the project risk. Of particular significance is use of modern uncertainty management and variance reduction methods to perform gap analyses that feed into phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) commonly used to communicate nuclear readiness levels. Model-based measurements techniques are used to design sub-scale experiments as a substitute to minimize orcompletely eliminate the need for nuclear demonstrations.This paper will describe the approach and present preliminary results. It will lay the groundwork for developing a set of metrics that can be broadly characterized as system nuclear readiness levels and advancement degree of difficulty for nuclear systems. Equally importantly, a goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue among stakeholders on what is the sufficient level of maturity that is required for launching a demonstration unit.

Dasari V Rao↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

An overview of methods to identify and manage uncertainty for modelling problems in the water-environment-agriculture cross-sector

Uncertainty pervades the representation of systems in the water–environment–agriculture cross-sector. Successful methods to address uncertainties have largely focused on standard mathematical formulations of biophysical processes in a single sector, such as partial or ordinary differential equations. More attention to integrated models of such systems is warranted. Model components representing the different sectors of an integrated model can have less standard, and different, formulations to one another, as well as different levels of epistemic knowledge and data informativeness. Thus, uncertainty is not only pervasive but also crosses boundaries and propagates between system components. Uncertainty assessment (UA) cries out for more eclectic treatment in these circumstances, some of it being more qualitative and empirical. Here in this paper, we discuss the various sources of uncertainty in such a cross-sectoral setting and ways to assess and manage them. We have outlined a fast-growing set of methodologies, particularly in the computational mathematics literature on uncertainty quantification (UQ), that seem highly pertinent for uncertainty assessment. There appears to be considerable scope for advancing UA by integrating relevant UQ techniques into cross-sectoral problem applications. Of course this will entail considerable collaboration between domain specialists who often take first ownership of the problem and computational methods experts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2018

Variability Timescale and Spectral Index of Sgr A* in the Near Infrared: Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis of the Variability of the Closest Supermassive Black Hole

Sagittarius A* (Sgr A* ) is the variable radio, near-infrared (NIR), and X-ray source associated with accretion onto the Galactic center black hole. We present an analysis of the most comprehensive NIR variability data set of Sgr A* to date: eight 24 hr epochs of continuous monitoring of Sgr A* at 4.5 μm with the IRAC instrument on the Spitzer Space Telescope, 93 epochs of 2.18 μm data from Naos Conica at the Very Large Telescope, and 30 epochs of 2.12 μm data from the NIRC2 camera at the Keck Observatory, in total 94,929 measurements. A new approximate Bayesian computation method for fitting the first-order structure function extracts information beyond current fast Fourier transformation (FFT) methods of power spectral density (PSD) estimation. With a combined fit of the data of all three observatories, the characteristic coherence timescale of Sgr A* is b 243 57 82 t = - + minutes (90% credible interval). The PSD has no detectable features on timescales down to 8.5 minutes (95% credible level), which is the ISCO orbital frequency for a dimensionless spin parameter a = 0.92. One light curve measured simultaneously at 2.12 and 4.5 μm during a low flux-density phase gave a spectral index αs = 1.6 ± 0.1 (F µ n s n -a ). This value implies that the Sgr A* NIR color becomes bluer during higher flux-density phases. The probability densities of flux densities of the combined data sets are best fit by log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, the Sgr A* spectral energy distribution is consistent with synchrotron radiation from a nonthermal electron population from below 20 GHz through the NIR.

accretion↗
DOE OSTI2019

Robotic Solutions for Remote Access and Retrieval of High-Level Radioactive Waste - 19544

This paper describes the ongoing development of robotic solutions for accessing and retrieving high-level radioactive waste from underground storage bins as part of the Calcine Retrieval Project at the INL Site. The waste is in the form of a solid powder, referred to as calcine, stored in a set of stainless steel bins within an underground concrete vault. Due to the radiation field produced by the calcine, all operations must be performed remotely. The Calcine Retrieval Project is currently carrying out proof-of-concept testing of methods for the various stages of calcine retrieval. The bins were designed with no means for access, so retrieval operations will require welding access riser pipes to the bins, followed by cutting through the bin walls from within the risers. These tasks are complicated by the fact that four of the risers must be placed off center on a domed surface, resulting in a weld joint that is curved and tilted relative to the riser axis. The Access Riser Connection robot is being developed to perform these operations using interchangeable welding and plasma cutting attachments. The majority of the calcine will be removed using a vacuum system and pneumatically transferred to storage. This system is not described in this paper. However, the bins contain several internal features that are expected to retain calcine, most notably circumferential stiffening rings on the walls and radial ribs on the floors. One of the solutions being developed for the task of retrieving this residual calcine is a vacuum crawler, a wheeled robot using vacuum to adhere to the interior walls of the bins. The vacuum crawler would use a separate vacuum system to remove residual calcine or would use compressed air to move calcine to a location from which it can be retrieved more easily. While comparable welding and wall-climbing robots have been developed before, this particular application has several constraints that are not satisfied by existing systems. For this reason, both the access riser welder and the vacuum crawler, although still under development, may be of interest to other projects faced with similar constraints. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2009

Modifications to the NASA SP-8072 Distributed Source Method II for Ares I Lift-off Environment Predictions

Lift-off acoustic environments for NASA's Ares I - Crew Launch Vehicle are predicted using the second source distribution methodology described in the NASA SP-8072. Three modifications made to the model include a shorter core length approximation, a core termination procedure upon plume deflection, and a new set of directivity indices measured from static test firings of the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). The modified sound pressure level predictions increased more than 5 dB overall, and the peak levels shifted two third-octave bands higher in frequency.

Haynes, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2018

Opinion: Making the Most of Colour Rendition Research

After decades of debate, new methods for characterizing color rendition have been formalized, providing an improved system of tools to aid technology developers and lighting specifiers. Solid-state lighting, previously burdened by legacy measures based on outdated science, is positioned to take advantage of these new tools to provide tailored, efficient lighting that better meets the needs of specific architectural lighting applications. This transition requires new guidance, however, presenting an opportunity for researchers. There are several key methodological considerations specific to experiments investigating color rendition that will help build a base of guidance that can be widely applied. The importance of these ideas mostly stems from new knowledge gained in the last five years, but their origins date back much further. 1.The spectral power distribution must be adequately varied to stress the measure(s) of color rendition being evaluated. Often, this means varying the gamut shape—the pattern of shift across different hues—to probe weaknesses of hue-averaged characterizations, avoiding misleading conclusions resulting from limited variation in the stimuli. 2.Evaluating the role of chromaticity on color quality evaluations requires careful accommodation of chromatic adaptation to prevent a centering bias. Asking for delayed responses may be insufficient if chromaticity changes are apparent to participants, just as side-by-side viewing of different chromaticities may not produce results that can be reliably applied in the field. It is also critical that color rendition and chromaticity conditions are varied independently. 3.The stimulus being viewed is the interaction of light and objects’ spectral reflectances. This interaction should be quantified in order to assess how derived guidelines will apply measures using standardized color sample sets. Although light source characterizations are typically used to model responses, the objects and their presentation may strongly influence evaluations. 4.Context is important. Many factors—some investigated, others hypothesized—can influence subjective evaluations of color quality, including illuminance level, type of scene, object familiarity, color composition, viewing duration, and viewer traits. Although their influence on research results is unavoidable, the effects of these contextual factors must be carefully considered in developing guidance. Appropriate experimental design can often mitigate negative consequences arising from these considerations. At a minimum, it is crucial to understand how each of these considerations can influence experimental outcomes, as well as the interpretation and application of the results in practice. Consulting other experts prior to conducting an experiment can help ensure appropriate, up-to-date research methods will be used, so that the results will be novel and useful—and not rejected during peer review. There is an interesting feedback loop: technology development provides new research tools, which allow for refined research methods and new results that lead to more technology development. It is time to make a concerted, collective effort to improve color rendition research so that the full potential of solid-state lighting and new characterization methods can be realized, ensuring that high-efficiency, high-utility, high-appeal lighting systems become standard.

Royer, Michael P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photovoltaic-assisted heat pump water heater system and method

A solar power system has a photovoltaic module that supplies electrical current derived from sunlight to a heater system of a hot water tank. The heater system uses the electrical energy from the photovoltaic module, and optionally also from a local power grid, to heat water up to a selected maximum stored hot water temperature. Control circuitry senses when the level of electrical power is below a threshold solar-power level, and in response sets the stored hot water temperature for the heater system to a first lower temperature value. The control circuitry also senses when the level of electrical power is above the threshold solar-power level, an in response sets the stored hot water temperature for the heater system to a second elevated temperature value higher than the lower temperature, making advantageous use of solar power when available. A mixing unit adds cold water to set the dispensed water temperature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

A new hybrid algorithm combining a new chaos optimization approach with gradient descent for high dimensional optimization problems

Chaos optimization algorithm (COA) is a recently developed method for global optimization based on chaos theory. It has the features of easy implementation, short execution time and robust mechanisms of escaping from local optima compared with the existing stochastic searching algorithm. By integrating the gradient descent method with a new COA approach using new strategies including symmetrization and levelling, a novel hybrid method, called SCGD, is proposed in this paper. The main idea is to combine the good ability of exploitation of the gradient descent with the high ability of exploration of COA. The purpose is to avoid being trapped into local optima and to improve convergence in large space and high-dimension optimization problems. The simulation results based on a set of 50 benchmark functions with diverse properties and different dimensions show the efficiency and the abilities of the proposed method in finding the global optima compared with the existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-lying states and total internal partition sums of CH

The electronic structure and spin-orbit states of the CH radical have been systematically investigated using multi-reference configuration interaction (MRCI) and single-reference coupled-cluster (CC) methods. These calculations were performed in conjunction with large correlation-consistent basis sets of quadruple-, quintuple-, and sextuple-ζ quality. To achieve high accuracy, electronic energies for all states were extrapolated to the complete basis set (CBS) limit, enabling the detailed construction of potential energy curves and determination of reliable spectroscopic constants. Spin-orbit coupling effects were explicitly incorporated, and vibrational energy levels were computed via Numerov analysis. Furthermore, the resulting values exhibit good to excellent agreement with available experimental data. Dipole moment and transition dipole moment curves were evaluated to assess the opacity characteristics of CH, revealing that transitions such as Χ 2 Π (u′′ = 0) → Α 2 Δ (u′ = 0), Χ 2 Π (u′′ = 0) → Β 2 Σ − (u′ = 0), Χ 2 Π (u′′ = 0) → C 2 Σ + (u′ = 0), and Χ 2 Π (u′′ = 0) → D 2 Σ + (u′ = 3) are particularly probable. Finally, the total internal partition function sum (TIPS) of CH was computed over a broad temperature range (10–30,000 K) based on our high-accuracy ab initio results.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Robust predictions of specialized metabolism genes through machine learning

Plant specialized metabolism (SM) enzymes produce lineage-specific metabolites with important ecological, evolutionary, and biotechnological implications. Using Arabidopsis thaliana as a model, we identified distinguishing characteristics of SM and GM (general metabolism, traditionally referred to as primary metabolism) genes through a detailed study of features including duplication pattern, sequence conservation, transcription, protein domain content, and gene network properties. Analysis of multiple sets of benchmark genes revealed that SM genes tend to be tandemly duplicated, coexpressed with their paralogs, narrowly expressed at lower levels, less conserved, and less well connected in gene networks relative to GM genes. Although the values of each of these features significantly differed between SM and GM genes, any single feature was ineffective at predicting SM from GM genes. Using machine learning methods to integrate all features, a prediction model was established with a true positive rate of 87% and a true negative rate of 71%. In addition, 86% of known SM genes not used to create the machine learning model were predicted. We also demonstrated that the model could be further improved when we distinguished between SM, GM, and junction genes responsible for reactions shared by SM and GM pathways, indicating that topological considerations may further improve the SM prediction model. Application of the prediction model led to the identification of 1,220 A. thaliana genes with previously unknown functions, each assigned a confidence measure called an SM score, providing a global estimate of SM gene content in a plant genome.

data integration↗
DOE OSTI2023

Non-local contribution from small scales in galaxy–galaxy lensing: comparison of mitigation schemes

ABSTRACT Recent cosmological analyses with large-scale structure and weak lensing measurements, usually referred to as 3 × 2pt, had to discard a lot of signal to noise from small scales due to our inability to accurately model non-linearities and baryonic effects. Galaxy–galaxy lensing, or the position–shear correlation between lens and source galaxies, is one of the three two-point correlation functions that are included in such analyses, usually estimated with the mean tangential shear. However, tangential shear measurements at a given angular scale θ or physical scale R carry information from all scales below that, forcing the scale cuts applied in real data to be significantly larger than the scale at which theoretical uncertainties become problematic. Recently, there have been a few independent efforts that aim to mitigate the non-locality of the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal. Here, we perform a comparison of the different methods, including the Y-transformation, the point-mass marginalization methodology, and the annular differential surface density statistic. We do the comparison at the cosmological constraints level in a combined galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing analysis. We find that all the estimators yield equivalent cosmological results assuming a simulated Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Year 1 like set-up and also when applied to DES Y3 data. With the LSST Y1 set-up, we find that the mitigation schemes yield ∼1.3 times more constraining S8 results than applying larger scale cuts without using any mitigation scheme.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Land use/land cover mapping (1:25000) of Taiwan, Republic of China by automated multispectral interpretation of LANDSAT imagery

Three methods were tested for collection of the training sets needed to establish the spectral signatures of the land uses/land covers sought due to the difficulties of retrospective collection of representative ground control data. Computer preprocessing techniques applied to the digital images to improve the final classification results were geometric corrections, spectral band or image ratioing and statistical cleaning of the representative training sets. A minimal level of statistical verification was made based upon the comparisons between the airphoto estimates and the classification results. The verifications provided a further support to the selection of MSS band 5 and 7. It also indicated that the maximum likelihood ratioing technique can achieve more agreeable classification results with the airphoto estimates than the stepwise discriminant analysis.

Sung, Q. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Variation in efficiency of parallel algorithms

The present study has the objective to investigate some iterative parallel-processor linear equation solving algorithms with respect to efficiency for analyses of typical linear engineering systems. Attention is given to a set of n linear equations, Ku = p, where K = an n x n positive definite, sparsely populated, symmetric matrix, u = an n x 1 vector of unknown responses, and p = an n x 1 vector of prescribed constants. This study is concerned with a hybrid method in which iteration is used to solve the problem, while a direct method is used on the local processor level. Variations in the efficiency of parallel algorithms are explored. Measures of the efficiency are based on computer experiments regarding the algorithms. For all the algorithms, the wall clock time is found to decrease as the number of processors increases.

Hayashi, A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Earth imaging results from Galileo's second encounter

The recent flyby of the Galileo spacecraft en route to Jupiter contributes a unique perspective to our view of our home planet. Imaging activities conducted during the second Earth encounter provide an important opportunity to assess new methods and approaches on familiar territory. These include unique multispectral observations, low light-level imaging (searches for aurorae, lightning and artificial lights on the nightside) and experiments with multiple exposure times to extend the effective radiometric resolution and dynamic range of the camera system. Galileo imaging data has the potential to make important contributions to terrestrial remote sensing. This is because the particular set of filters included in the Solid State Imaging system are not presently incorporated in any currently operating Earth-orbiting sensor system. The visible/near-infrared bandpasses of the SSI filters are well suited to remote sensing of geological, glaciological, botanical, and meteorological phenomena. Data from this and the previous Earth encounter may provide an extremely valuable reference point in time for comparison with similar data expected from EOS or other systems in the future, contributing directly to our knowledge of global change. The highest resolution imaging (0.2 km/pixel) during the December, 1992 encounter occurred over the central Andes; a five filter mosaic of visible and near infrared bands displays the remarkable spectral heterogeneity of this geologically diverse region. As Galileo departed the Earth, cooperative imaging with the Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) instrument targeted Antarctica, Australia, and Indonesia at 1.0 to 2.5 km/pixel resolutions in the early morning local times near the terminator. The Antarctic data are of particular interest, potentially allowing ice grain size mapping using the 889 and 968 nm filters and providing an important means of calibrating the technique for application to the Galilean satellites. As the spacecraft receded further, regional scale imaging provided data which, along with data from the previous encounter, will enable the production of global multispectral mosaics of Earth in each of the SSI filters.

Greenberg, R.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Variables Influenced by Thermal Mass and its Impact on Energy Performance in Buildings

There is no question that thermal mass has an impact on the energy performance of buildings, both the peak energy demand and overall consumption. However, there are many variables that contribute to and influence the impact of mass on energy performance. This paper is the result of an analytic study that evaluated thermal mass and associated building envelope energy performance for commercial and residential prototype buildings. Relationships between thermal mass, insulation levels, internal gains, outdoor climate, building usage and user preferences were studied. In this paper, authors analyzed how these variables interact and investigated optimized conditions for utilization of thermal mass. It is also discussed how air conditioning operation, exterior and interior loads, and thermostat set points impact the usefulness of thermal mass in a building to favorably impact peak demand and energy savings. Existing methods and approaches to evaluate the impact of thermal mass are discussed and a preferred design approach is presented to estimate the impact of thermal mass on energy peak demand and overall energy consumption under both heating and cooling conditions.

Pallin, Simon B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗