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Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.
NREL and NanoSpray will cooperate to leverage NREL's existing solar cell processing facilities at NREL's Atmospheric Processing Platform to determine optimal processing method using 6" by 6" CdTe modules.
This study compares three rear-side irradiance modeling methods for bifacial PV systems on single-axis trackers: (i) the 2D View Factor (VF) model in PVsyst(R), (ii) the open-source PVFactors VF model, and (iii) the Ray Tracing (RT) technique using bifacial_radiance. Simulations were benchmarked against field measurements from a pilot PV plant with rear-side sensors at the torque tube height. Results show that all models underestimated the non-uniformity of rear irradiance along the module length and overestimated the total rear irradiance incident on the module. However, since bifacial gain represents only a fraction of the system's total energy, the resulting energy yield differences among methods remained within +- 2 % of measured values, which is typical for such simulations. While the overall energy impact is limited, this study characterizes the specific limitations of each modeling approach, supporting further improvements in bifacial PV performance assessment methods.
Abstract Published data on photovoltaic (PV) degradation measurements were aggregated and re‐examined. The subject has seen an increased interest in recent years resulting in more than 11 000 degradation rates in almost 200 studies from 40 different countries. As studies have grown in number and size, we found an impact from sampling bias attributable to size and accuracy. Because of the correlational nature of this study we examined the data in several ways to minimize this bias. We found median degradation for x‐Si technologies in the 0.5–0.6%/year range with the mean in the 0.8–0.9%/year range. Hetero‐interface technology (HIT) and microcrystalline silicon (µc‐Si) technologies, although not as plentiful, exhibit degradation around 1%/year and resemble thin‐film products more closely than x‐Si. Several studies showing low degradation for copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) have emerged. Higher degradation for cadmium telluride (CdTe) has been reported, but these findings could reflect a convolution of less accurate studies and longer stabilization periods for some products. Significant deviations for beginning‐of‐life measurements with respect to nameplate rating have been documented over the last 35 years. Therefore, degradation rates that use nameplate rating as reference may be significantly impacted. Studies that used nameplate rating as reference but used solar simulators showed less variation than similar studies using outdoor measurements, even when accounting for different climates. This could be associated with confounding effects of measurement uncertainty and soiling that take place outdoors. Hotter climates and mounting configurations that lead to sustained higher temperatures may lead to higher degradation in some, but not all, products. Wear‐out non‐linearities for the worst performing modules have been documented in a few select studies that took multiple measurements of an ensemble of modules during the lifetime of the system. However, the majority of these modules exhibit a fairly linear decline. Modeling these non‐linearities, whether they occur at the beginning‐of‐life or end‐of‐life in the PV life cycle, has an important impact on the levelized cost of energy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Photovoltaic backsheets are exposed to harsh outdoor weathering conditions throughout their service lives that can compromise their protective function, through adhesive debonding between their constituent layers and between the backsheet and the module. We report a large-scale study on adhesive degradation was conducted on 37 field-exposed modules, that spanned 19 different module manufacturers, that were deployed among six Köppen–Geiger climatic zones, and that were fielded between 0 and 28 years. Six outer layer polymer classes were identified among the backsheets: polyamide (PA), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl fluoride (PVF), polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), fluoroethylene vinyl ether copolymer (FEVE), and tetrafluoroethylene hexafluoropropylene vinylidene fluoride copolymer (THV). Two adhesion tests were used to measure the adhesive strength: the wedge test and the width-tapered single-cantilever beam (SCB) test. Adhesion energies were compared across exposure time and Köppen–Geiger climatic zone. Many of the PET-, PVF-, and PVDF-based backsheets experienced degradation of the adhesive layer between the backsheet outer and core layers. A consistent trend of decreasing adhesion energy with exposure time was observed in five out of the six backsheet types. Trends among adhesion energy and climatic zone, while expected, were not observed, possibly due to broad ranges in temperature, humidity, and precipitation defining Köppen–Geiger climatic zones. The cantilever beam measurements produced an upper cutoff of approximately 100 J/m 2 , above which no modules exhibited field delamination. The results are part of a two-part study quantifying adhesion in both field-weathered and indoor-exposed PV backsheets.
During the past five years, thin-film cell technology has made remarkable progress as a potential alternative to crystalline silicon cell technology. The efficiency of a single-junction thin-film cell, which is the most promising for use in flat-plate modules, is now in the range of 11 percent with 1-sq cm cells consisting of amorphous silicon, CuInSe2 or CdTe materials. Cell efficiencies higher than 18 percent, suitable for 15 percent-efficient flat plate modules, would require a multijunction configuration such as the CdTe/CuInSe2 and tandem amorphous-silicon (a-Si) alloy cells. Assessments are presented of the technology status of thin-film-cell module research and the potential of achieving the higher efficiencies required for large-scale penetration into the photovoltaic (PV) energy market.
We examine the illumination incident to each of the modules in a two-high bifacial tracking photovoltaic system. Experiments and simulations indicate that the upper module receives more diffuse sunlight, whereas either the upper or lower module can receive more direct sunlight depending on the configuration and conditions. We use a view-factor model to illustrate how the fraction of illumination received by the upper and lower modules depends on albedo, the sun’s position in the sky, module tilt, and the fraction of direct sunlight. We also use ray tracing to illustrate how edge effects can significantly change the amount of sunlight reaching the upper and lower modules; these results underscore the complications of using measurements from small test facilities to predict the behavior of large PV fields.
Advanced Distribution Management Systems not generally optimize over the entire feeder because there are few high-fidelity distribution circuit models and real-time distribution-connected sensors are rare. The limited observability at the distribution level makes it difficult to globally optimize distribution operations and issue control setpoints to power systems equipment or Distributed Energy Resources (DER) to perform grid-support services. For example, setpoints can be issued to DER based on results from an optimization module that incorporates a static or time-series feeder simulation. Feeder simulation initial conditions are populated with photovoltaic (PV) and load forecasts, state estimation results, and/or digital twin measurements or state output. The real-time (RT) digital twin runs a model of the feeder to generate state estimation pseudo-measurements since there are limited live feeder measurements.
Emerging PV technologies (e.g. Perovskite, and Quantum Dot) are commonly known to possess challenges for accurate performance measurement under the existing IEC 60904 series of standards, which were developed for conventional Si solar cells. Potential performance artifacts depending on scan rates and directions and light bias exposure history are often seen in those emerging solar cells. To avoid these artifacts and provide an unbiased and reliable efficiency measurement, NREL's Cell and Module Performance (CMP) Group has developed a steady-state performance calibration protocol - the asymptotic P MAX method. In this paper, we applied this procedure to four PV cell technologies, Si, CIGS, perovskite, and Quantum Dot (QD), and compared their performance variations between the transient and the steady-state conditions. By comparison, we found that the performance parameters ( i.e. V OC , I SC , FF, ..eta..) measured between fast I-V scans (and the asymptotic method (steady-state) change significantly for perovskite and QD cells. These changes do not happen for Si and CIGS cells. Furthermore, the statistical performance analysis on nearly 100 emerging cells received globally (including OPV, Perovskite, and QD) shows that over 70 % of the fast I-V scans have a relative performance deviation larger than 1% compared to those determined using the asymptotic P MAX scan. Given the complex dynamic behavior observed in emerging PV devices, the CMP group at NREL thus only certifies their steady steady-state performance using the Asymptotic P MAX method. We highly recommend similar steady-state performance calibration protocol for all researchers in emerging PV because accuracy in reported efficiencies is critical to the long-term success of those promising new PV technologies.
1366 Technologies’ Project Silicon addresses two of the major goals of the DOE’s PV Manufacturing Initiative Part 2 program: 1) How to reclaim a strong silicon PV manufacturing presence and; 2) How to lower the levelized cost of electricity (“LCOE”) for solar to $0.05-$0.07/kWh, enabling wide-scale U.S. market adoption. To achieve these two goals, US companies must commercialize disruptive, high-value technologies that are capable of rapid scaling, defensible from foreign competition, and suited for US manufacturing. These are the aims of 1366 Technologies Direct Wafer ™ process. The research conducted during Project Silicon led to the first industrial scaling of 1366’s Direct Wafer™ process – an innovative, US-friendly (efficient, low-labor content) manufacturing process that destroys the main cost barrier limiting silicon PV cost-reductions: the 35-year-old grand challenge of making quality wafers (40% of the cost of modules) without the cost and waste of sawing. The SunPath program made it possible for 1366 Technologies to build its demonstration factory, a key and critical step in the Company’s evolution. The demonstration factory allowed 1366 to build every step of the process flow at production size, eliminating potential risk and ensuring the success of the Company’s subsequent scaling for a 1 GW factory to be constructed in Western New York in 2016 and 2017. Moreover, the commercial viability of the Direct Wafer process and its resulting wafers were established as 1366 formed key strategic partnerships, gained entry into the $8B/year multi-Si wafer market, and installed modules featuring Direct Wafer products – the veritable proving grounds for the technology. The program also contributed to the development of three Generation 3 Direct Wafer furnaces. These furnaces are the platform for copying intelligently and preparing our supply chain – large-scale expansion will not require a bigger machine but more machines. SunPath filled the crucial development step between the original research effort in Lexington and the GW factory scheduled to be online before the end of the decade. At the conclusion of the project, it is clear that the Direct Wafer™ technology will have a dramatic impact on the entire silicon photovoltaic supply chain by effectively doubling existing silicon capacity (by reducing silicon usage by 50%) and reducing supply chain capital costs by 35%. The technology, when fully-scaled in the US, will also lead to significant job growth, with the eventual creation of 1,000 jobs in Western New York.
This document describes the design requirements for the geothermal heat pump (GHP) module being added to the existing REopt Lite web tool. This document describes the purpose, users, and functional requirements to which the modified web tool shall conform. This document will be revised, as required, throughout the development phase with consensus between the Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) and NREL. The GHP module will expand existing REopt Lite capabilities to include techno-economic optimization of GHP systems, either stand alone, or integrated with the other existing technology types, namely solar photovoltaics (PV), wind power, battery energy storage, thermal energy storage, combined hear and power (CHP), and absorption chiller. Included in this submission are links to the REopt Lite web tool and open-source Git-Hub page. The REopt Lite tool can also be accessed directly via the NREL Developer Network. A link is also provided for the REopt report that overviews the module's capabilities.
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Heat transfer modeling that accounts for how convective cooling changes with PV array layout has been found to improve system LCOE in certain climates conditions. Analysis of fixed tilt systems performed using the System Advisor Model reveals that reducing system ground coverage ratio from 0.46 to 0.35 can lead to as much as a 1.7% increase in module annual energy output in Phoenix. Depending on climate conditions, these energy increases due to changing convective cooling flow can lead to LCOE improvements for systems with increased row spacing despite the increased wiring and land costs associated with increased module row spacing. While the energy gain from decreasing system ground coverage ratio can be largely attributed to increased plane of array irradiance, the convection cooling considerations presented here can have a non-negligible impact on PV power plant energy output and economic viability depending on climate conditions and array spacing parameters.
Single-axis tracking is a cost-effective deployment strategy for large-scale ground-mount photovoltaic systems in regions with high direct-normal irradiance. Bifacial modules in 1-axis-tracking systems boost energy yield by 4%-15% depending on module type and ground albedo, with a global average of 9%. This benefit is in addition to the 15%-25% energy gain already afforded by single-axis tracking relative to fixed-tilt deployments. Here, we compare model results against field performance data for two side-by-side bifacial/monofacial tracked systems - one in Albuquerque, NM, USA, and one in eastern Oregon. The Albuquerque system shows monthly rear irradiance gain of 10%-14.9%, and the Oregon bifacial system has an average performance ratio 9.4% higher than the monofacial system. Both results match bifacial irradiance model results within uncertainty. Simulations show that smart tracking algorithms can offer more than 1% improvement on annual energy yield by adjusting tilt angle under cloudy conditions. Finally, ray-tracing simulations investigated edge brightening, suggesting a 15%-25% increase in rear irradiance at the ends of tracker rows, but up to 20% loss from center-mounted torque tubes, creating multiple shadows.
The UF Solar Fuels team has developed a modular reactor at the 10kW scale for the thermochemical conversion of H 2 O and CO 2 to H 2 and CO, respectively, using concentrated solar energy to drive high-temperature redox reactions. Various materials, including ferrites, doped and mixed metal ferrites, and ceria, were investigated and reported on. Ceria was chosen as the reactive material, with thermogravimetric and bench-scale analysis concurring with literature review and pointing towards reasonable kinetics and stability at temperatures on the order of 1500°C. A combined radiation, conduction, and species reaction/mass transport model was developed, utilizing Monte Carlo ray tracing, Lattice Boltzmann, and random walk particle tracking for the respective components to direct development and optimization of the reactor. With experimental data used for reaction rates, the model showed a path to efficiencies >20%, which could be market competitive with current PV-hydrolysis hydrogen generation systems. Economic analysis of a larger-scale plant (100kW modular system with cost performed at 500 modules) has been performed, assuming 0.5% and 10% internal rate of return. Without compression costs, H 2 production cost using this is technology at 12 USD/kg H 2 and 17 USD/kg H 2 for realized efficiencies of 20% and 15%, respectively.
Here we automate the process to enable the creation of world maps for specific PV durability metrics. The end goal is to create a tool for the creation of world maps predicting the sensitivity of modules to degradation to inform the development and utilization of module testing standards and to provide information to module designers. TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) Data was aggregated from sites around the world to render insight into factors contributing to the degradation of solar modules. The focus of aggregating data was to create a single dataset to work with utilizing Solar Irradiance values combined with Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, Wind Speed and Dew-Point Temperature.
This project has four main technical objectives. Develop and improve bifacial performance models by adding the capability to evaluate electrical behavior and performance of bifacial modules and arrays under realistic field conditions including irradiance variability caused by racking, module frame, and position in the array. Instrument and monitor performance of fielded bifacial systems to validate performance models and to measure, analyze and publish on bifacial energy gain. These should include both research and commercial bifacial systems and cover a variety of deployment applications. Evaluate optimal bifacial system designs using simulations leveraging high performance computing, and also using full sized and miniaturized experimental field deployments. Establish and contribute to international test standards for bifacial system performance, testing, and safety, and work with the community to establish installation and siting best practices.
This project has four main technical objectives: 1) Develop and improve bifacial performance models by adding the capability to evaluate electrical behavior and performance of bifacial modules and arrays under realistic field conditions including irradiance variability caused by racking, module frame, and position in the array. 2) Instrument and monitor performance of fielded bifacial systems to validate performance models and to measure, analyze and publish on bifacial energy gain. These should include both research and commercial bifacial systems and cover a variety of deployment applications. 3) Evaluate optimal bifacial system designs using simulations leveraging high-performance computing, and also using full sized and miniaturized experimental field deployments. 4) Establish and contribute to international test standards for bifacial system performance, testing, and safety, and work with the community to establish installation and siting best practices.