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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precipitation Characteristics and Future Changes Over the Southern Slope of Tibetan Plateau Simulated by a High-Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Current climate model resolution cannot accurately describe the complex topography over the Tibetan Plateau, which limits our understanding of past and future precipitation over this region. This study investigates the daily precipitation characteristics and its future changes over the Tibetan Plateau, especially for the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (SSTP), by 14-km Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) with explicitly calculated convection for historical and future 30-years period. By comparing with the satellite Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), NICAM well reproduces the historical precipitation spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and the extreme precipitation belt over SSTP, but overestimates precipitation amount by~35%. It is found that heavy precipitation probability decreases as elevation becomes higher while the light precipitation generally shows the opposite. For the precipitation changes during June to September from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts that mean precipitation will decrease over low-level SSTP but increase over high-level SSTP. Nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability will increase while light precipitation probability will decrease in the future over SSTP. The extreme precipitation probability and intensity will increase ~50%/°C and ~8%/°C over SSTP, and this increase is more obvious as elevation becomes higher. The robust increase of extreme precipitation along the SSTP topography is unique and has not been identified by the climate model simulations before. The strong meridional gradient of specific humidity over SSTP is found to be further enhanced under global warming, and this gradient enhancement is suggested to be responsible for the increase in the extreme precipitation over SSTP.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Avalanches in strong imbibition

Slow injection of non-wetting fluids (drainage) and strongly wetting fluids (strong imbibition) into porous media are two contrasting processes in many respects: the former must be forced into the pore space, while the latter imbibe spontaneously; the former occupy pore bodies, while the latter coat crevices and corners. These two processes also produce distinctly different displacement patterns. However, both processes evolve via a series of avalanche-like invasion events punctuated by quiescent periods. Here, we show that, despite their mechanistic differences, avalanches in strong imbibition exhibit all the features of self-organized criticality previously documented for drainage, including the correlation scaling describing the space-time statistics of invasion at the pore scale.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

High external quantum efficiency (6.5%) InGaN V-defect LEDs at 600 nm on patterned sapphire substrates

Highly efficient long-wavelength InGaN LEDs have been a research focus in nitride LEDs for their potential applications in displays and solid-state lighting. A key breakthrough has been the use of laterally injected quantum wells via naturally occurring V-defects which promote hole injection through semipolar sidewalls and help to overcome the barriers to carrier injection that plague long wavelength nitride LEDs. In this article, we study V-defect engineered LEDs on (0001) patterned sapphire substrates (PSS) and GaN on (111) Si. V-defects were formed using a 40-period InGaN/GaN superlattice and we report a packaged external quantum efficiency (EQE) of 6.5% for standard 0.1 mm 2 . LEDs on PSS at 600 nm. We attribute the high EQE in these LEDs to lateral injection via V-defects.

Ewing, Jacob J.↗

Seasonal and interannual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. Our goal for this study is three-fold: (i) to evaluate the wetland methane fluxes simulated in two versions of the Community Land Model, the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN; i.e., CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC; i.e., CLM4.5) versions using the methane emission model CLM4Me' so as to determine the sensitivity of the emissions to the underlying carbon model; (ii) to compare the simulated atmospheric methane concentrations to observations, including latitudinal gradients and interannual variability so as to determine the extent to which the atmospheric observations constrain the emissions; (iii) to understand the drivers of seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations. Simulations of the transport and removal of methane use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) model in conjunction with CLM4Me' methane emissions from both CN and BGC simulations and other methane emission sources from literature. In each case we compare model-simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations. In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions derived from a different terrestrial ecosystem model, Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT). Our analysis indicates CN wetland methane emissions are higher in the tropics and lower at high latitudes than emissions from BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN version, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem simulations with CLM4Me' methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric methane concentration. Simulated atmospheric CH 4 concentrations in CAM-chem are highly correlated with observations at most of the 14 measurement stations evaluated with an average correlation between 0.71 and 0.80 depending on the simulation (for the period of 1993–2004 for most stations based on data availability). Our results suggest that different spatial patterns of wetland emissions can have significant impacts on Northern and Southern hemisphere (N–S) atmospheric CH 4 concentration gradients and growth rates. In conclusion, this study suggests that both anthropogenic and wetland emissions have significant contributions to seasonal and interannual variations in atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. However, our analysis also indicates the existence of large uncertainties in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude of global wetland methane budgets, and that substantial uncertainty comes from the carbon model underlying the methane flux modules.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Incremental exposure facilitates adaptation to sensory rearrangement

Visual-target pointing experiments were performed on 24 adult volunteers in order to compare the relative effectiveness of incremental (stepwise) and single-step exposure conditions on adaptation to visual rearrangement. The differences between the preexposure and postexposure scores served as an index of the adaptation elicited during the exposure period. It is found that both single-step and stepwise exposure to visual rearrangement elicit compensatory changes in sensorimotor coordination. However, stepwise exposure, when compared to single-step exposur in terms of the average magnitude of visual displacement over the exposure period, clearly enhances the rate of adaptation. It seems possible that the enhancement of adaptation to unusual patterns of sensory stimulation produced by incremental exposure reflects a general principle of sensorimotor function.

Lackner, J. R.↗

Alfven wave propagation in the Io plasma torus

Voyager 1 plasma measurements are combined with a model of Jupiter's magnetic field to calculate the time required for an Alfven wave to travel between Io and Jupiter's ionosphere, and the period of subsequent bounces between the northern and southern hemispheres of Io. The result is a wave pattern which extends around Jupiter as the multiply reflected Alfven waves are carried away from Io by the corotating magnetospheric plasma, exhibiting a general longitudinal structure which is independent of Io's position due to magnetic field geometry and Io torus plasma distribution. If the Alfven waves simulate decametric radio emission, the wave pattern predicts specific decametric emission properties for comparison with radio observation.

Bagenal, F.↗

Scientific and technical training in the Soviet Union

Specific features and observations on the Soviet educational system and areas of apparent effectiveness are presented, noting that the literacy rate is over 98 percent in 1982. Educational goals are reoriented every five years to match with other projections of five-year plans. The Soviet constitution established strong educational goals, including schools, correspondence courses, lectures in native tongues, free tuition, and vocational training. The educational pattern from pre-school through graduate school lasts over 28 yr and contains two 2-yr periods of work, confined to specialties after graduate school. Mathematics is emphasized, as are physics, Marxism, and a foreign language. Approximately 300,000 engineers were graduated in the Soviet Union in 1982, compared with the 20-yr U.S. average of 50,000/yr. About 2/3 of Soviet engineers participate in defense work, a number which is four times the total number of U.S. engineers. It is asserted that the continual indoctrination, organization, and practical work experience will guarantee that the Soviet state will remain a dominant force in the world as long as centralized state control can be carried out.

Spearman, M. L.↗

Mars: Long Term Changes in the State and Distribution of H2O

A model for H2O distribution and migration on Mars was formulated which takes into account: (1) thermal variations at all depths in the regolith due to variations in obliquity, eccentricity and the solar constant; (2) variations in atmospheric PH2O caused by corresponding changes in polar surface insolation; and (3) the finite kinetics of H2O migration in both the regolith and atmosphere. Results suggest that regolith H2O transport rates are more strongly influenced by polar-controlled atmospheric PH2O variations than variations in pore gas PH2O brought about by thermal variations at the buried ice interface. The configuration of the ice interface as a function of assumed soil parameter and time is derived. Withdrawal of ice proceeds to various depths at latitudes less than 50 deg and is accompanied by filling of regolith pores at latitudes greater than 50 deg and transfer of H2O to the polar cap. The transfer has a somewhat oscillatory character, but only less than 1g/sq cm is shifted into and out the regolith during each obliquity cycle. It is concluded that this process combined with periodic thermal cycles played a major role in development of the fretted terrain, deflationary features in general, patterned ground, the north polar cap and the layered terrain.

Fanale, F. P.↗

The calibration of photographic and spectroscopic films: Reciprocity failure and thermal responses of IIaO film at liquid nitrogen temperatures

Reciprocity failure was examined for IIaO spectroscopic film. The results indicate reciprocity failure occurs at three distinct minimum points in time; 15 min, 30 min and 90 min. The results are unique because theory suggests only one minimum reciprocity failure point should occur. When incubating 70mm IIaO film for 15 and 30 min at temperatures of 30, 40, 50, and 60 C and then placing in a liquid nitrogen bath at a temperature of -190 C the film demonstrated an increase of the optical density when developed at a warm-up time of 30 min. Longer warm-up periods of 1, 2 and 3 hrs yield a decrease in optical density of the darker wedge patterns; whereas, shorter warm-up times yield an overall increase in the optical densities.

Hammond, E. C., Jr.↗

Long-term variability of solar magnetic-fields

Studies of the variations of the solar magnetic field are reviewed. Consideration is given to the study of 600 Myr-old Australiain varve data showing the 22-yr magnetic cycle and variations with 300-400 yr periods (Williams, 1981 and Bracewell, 1985). Methods of interpreting the organization of large-scale solar field patterns are discussed. Other studies examined include the interpretation of modal structure in the photospheric field by Stenflo et al. (1988), and the study of Sheeley et al. (1987) showing that much of the large-scale surface pattern can be deduced from the measured emerging flux.

Hoeksema, J. Todd↗

Large-scale solar and heliospheric magnetic fields

The magnetic structure of the extended solar corona varies with the changing photospheric field during the solar cycle. A simple potential model of the corona using solar surface observations from 1976 to the present shows how the large-scale coronal field evolves over more than a solar activity cycle. These predictions match well with large stable structures inferred from measurements of coronal electron density and the IMF, though dynamic changes are poorly modeled. The sun's polar field was about 25 stronger at solar minimum in 1986 than in 1976; the heliospheric current sheet was also flatter. In Cycle 21 the coronal and photospheric large-scale long-lived field patterns rotated every 26.9 days in the northern hemisphere; the southern field rotated every 28 days. Similar periods have been present in the IMF and in the occurrence of solar flares during the last several solar cycles.

Hoeksema, J. Todd↗

Chronological evaluation of urban growth and area expansion in Aguascalientes, Mexico using remotely sensed and ancillary mapped data

The study describes some efforts to assist the mapping procedure of Mexican towns and cities by focusing on the analysis of urban changes that have occurred in the city of Aguascalientes. To evaluate urban growth trends in Aguascalientes, historic maps of land cover, aerial photography, and SPOT data were reviewed between the period of 1857 and 1988 to determine urban boundaries. Additional analyses focused on identifying the extent and pattern of growth in reference to urban development plans initiated in 1978, and on assessing the impact of relocating people and industry after the Mexico City earthquake. Results from the study indicate a steady growth in areal expansion and population in the Aguascalientes area between 1978 and 1988.

Falquier, Leticia G.↗

Ozone maxima over Southern Africa: A mid-latitude link

The relationship between patterns of total ozone and day-to-day weather was explored over South Africa for the period 1987 to 1988. Generally, there was a fairly poor relationship (variance less than 20 percent) between total ozone and the heights of the 100, 300 and 500 hPa geopotential heights at 5 South African stations. However, over a shorter period, October to December 1988, fluctuations in the height of the 300 hPa surface accounted for 53 percent of the variance in total ozone at Cape Town. High ozone amounts are associated with the lowering of the 300 hPa surface in the presence of an upper-air trough. The role of the mid-latitude westerly waves in this respect is discussed.

Barsby, Jane↗

Patches in the polar ionosphere: UT and seasonal dependence

The seasonal and Universal Time (UT) dependencies of patches in the polar ionosphere are simulated using the Utah State University time dependent ionospheric model (TDIM). Patch formation is achieved by changing the plasma convection pattern in response to temporal changes in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(sub y) component during periods of southwrd IMF. This mechanism redirects the plasma flow from the dayside high-density region, which is the source of the tongue of ionization (TOI) density feature, through the throat and leads to patches, rather than a continuous TOI. The model predicts that the patches are absent at winter solstice (northern hemisphere) between 0800 and 1200 UT and that they have their largest seasonal intensity at winter solstice between 2000 and 2400 UT. Between winter solstice and equinox, patches are strong and present all day. Patches are present in summer as well, although their intensity is only tens of percent above the background density. These winter-to-equinox findings are also shown to be consistent with observations. The model was also used to predict times at which patch observations could be performed to determine the contributions from other patch mechanisms. This observational window is +/- 20 days about winter solstice between 0800 and 1200 UT in the northern hemisphere. In this observational window the TOI is either absent or reduced to a very low density. Hence the time dependent electric field mechanism considered in this study does not produce patches, and if they are observed, then they must be due to some other mechanism.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Enhancement of Cognitive Processing by Multiple Sclerosis Patients Using Liquid Cooling Technology: A Case Study

Cognitive dysfunction is a common symptom in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). This can have a significant impact on the quality of life of both the patient and of their primary care giver. This case study explores the possibility that liquid cooling therapy may be used to enhance the cognitive processing of MS patients in the same way that it provides temporary relief of some physical impairment. Two MS patients were presented a series of pattern discrimination tasks before and after being cooled with a liquid cooling garment for a one hour period. The subject whose ear temperature was reduced during cooling showed greater electroencephalographic (EEG) activity and scored much better on the task after cooling. The patient whose ear temperature was unaffected by cooling showed less EEG activity and degraded performance after the one hour cooling period.

Montgomery, Leslie D.↗

Evidence for Widespread Cooling in an Active Region Observed with the SDO Atmospheric Imaging Assembly

A well known behavior of EUV light curves of discrete coronal loops is that the peak intensities of cooler channels or spectral lines are reached at progressively later times. This time lag is understood to be the result of hot coronal loop plasma cooling through these lower respective temperatures. However, loops typically comprise only a minority of the total emission in active regions. Is this cooling pattern a common property of active region coronal plasma, or does it only occur in unique circumstances, locations, and times? The new SDO/AIA data provide a wonderful opportunity to answer this question systematically for an entire active region. We measure the time lag between pairs of SDO/AIA EUV channels using 24 hours of images of AR 11082 observed on 19 June 2010. We find that there is a time-lag signal consistent with cooling plasma, just as is usually found for loops, throughout the active region including the diffuse emission between loops for the entire 24 hour duration. The pattern persists consistently for all channel pairs and choice of window length within the 24 hour time period, giving us confidence that the plasma is cooling from temperatures of greater than 3 MK, and sometimes exceeding 7 MK, down to temperatures lower than approx. 0.8 MK. This suggests that the bulk of the emitting coronal plasma in this active region is not steady; rather, it is dynamic and constantly evolving. These measurements provide crucial constraints on any model which seeks to describe coronal heating.

Viall, Nicholeen M.↗