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Results for “Reliability Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Review and critical analysis: Rolling-element bearings for system life and reliability

A ball and cylindrical roller bearing technical specification which incorporates the latest state-of-the-art advancements was prepared for the purpose of improving bearing reliability in U.S. Army aircraft. The current U.S. Army aviation bearing designs and applications, including life analyses, were analyzed. A bearing restoration and refurbishment specification was prepared to improve bearing availability.

Irwin, A. S.↗

Methods for multisource data analysis in remote sensing

Methods for classifying remotely sensed data from multiple data sources are considered. Special interest is in general methods for multisource classification and three such approaches are considered: Dempster-Shafer theory; fuzzy set theory; and statistical multisource analysis. To apply statistical multisource analysis successfully it is necessary to characterize the reliability of each data source. Separability measures and classification accuracy are used to measure the reliability. These reliability measures are then associated with reliability factors included in the statistical multisource analysis to multispectral scanner data where different segments of the electromagnetic spectrum are treated as different sources. A discussion is included concerning future directions for investigating reliability measures.

Benediktsson, Jon Atli↗

Degradation of Leakage Currents and Reliability Prediction for Tantalum Capacitors

Two types of failures in solid tantalum capacitors, catastrophic and parametric, and their mechanisms are described. Analysis of voltage and temperature reliability acceleration factors reported in literature shows a wide spread of results and requires more investigation. In this work, leakage currents in two types of chip tantalum capacitors were monitored during highly accelerated life testing (HALT) at different temperatures and voltages. Distributions of degradation rates were approximated using a general log-linear Weibull model and yielded voltage acceleration constants B = 9.8 +/- 0.5 and 5.5. The activation energies were Ea = 1.65 eV and 1.42 eV. The model allows for conservative estimations of times to failure and was validated by long-term life test data. Parametric degradation and failures are reversible and can be annealed at high temperatures. The process is attributed to migration of charged oxygen vacancies that reduce the barrier height at the MnO2/Ta2O5 interface and increase injection of electrons from the MnO2 cathode. Analysis showed that the activation energy of the vacancies' migration is ~ 1.1 eV.

acceleration factors↗

Coupled Structural, Thermal, Phase-change and Electromagnetic Analysis for Superconductors, Volume 2

Described are the theoretical development and computer implementation of reliable and efficient methods for the analysis of coupled mechanical problems that involve the interaction of mechanical, thermal, phase-change and electromag subproblems. The focus application has been the modeling of superconductivity and associated quantum-state phase change phenomena. In support of this objective the work has addressed the following issues: (1) development of variational principles for finite elements, (2) finite element modeling of the electromagnetic problem, (3) coupling of thermel and mechanical effects, and (4) computer implementation and solution of the superconductivity transition problem. The main accomplishments have been: (1) the development of the theory of parametrized and gauged variational principles, (2) the application of those principled to the construction of electromagnetic, thermal and mechanical finite elements, and (3) the coupling of electromagnetic finite elements with thermal and superconducting effects, and (4) the first detailed finite element simulations of bulk superconductors, in particular the Meissner effect and the nature of the normal conducting boundary layer. The theoretical development is described in two volumes. Volume 1 describes mostly formulation specific problems. Volume 2 describes generalization of those formulations.

Felippa, C. A.↗

2nd Generation RLV Airframe Structures and Materials

The goals and objectives of the project summarized in this viewgraph presentation are the following: (1) Develop and demonstrate verified airframe and cryotank structural design and analysis technologies, including damage tolerance, safety, reliability, and residual strength technologies, robust nonlinear shell and cryotank analysis technologies, high-fidelity analysis and design technologies for local structural detail features and joints, and high-fidelity analysis technologies for sandwich structures; (2) Demonstrate low cost, robust materials and processing, including polymeric matrix composite (PMC) and metallic materials and processing, and refractory composite and metallic hot structures materials and processing; (3) Develop and demonstrate robust airframe structures and validated integrated airframe structural concepts, including low cost fabrication and joining, operations efficient designs and inspection techniques (non-destructive evaluation), scale-up and integrated thermal structure tests, and airframe structures IVHM; (4) Demonstrate low cost, robust repair techniques; and (5) Develop verified integrated airframe structural concepts, including integrated structural concepts.

Johnson, Theodore F.↗

Status of the Combustion Devices Injector Technology Program at the NASA MSFC

To support the NASA Space Exploration Mission, an in-house program called Combustion Devices Injector Technology (CDIT) is being conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for the fiscal year 2005. CDIT is focused on developing combustor technology and analysis tools to improve reliability and durability of upper-stage and in-space liquid propellant rocket engines. The three areas of focus include injector/chamber thermal compatibility, ignition, and combustion stability. In the compatibility and ignition areas, small-scale single- and multi-element hardware experiments will be conducted to demonstrate advanced technological concepts as well as to provide experimental data for validation of computational analysis tools. In addition, advanced analysis tools will be developed to eventually include 3-dimensional and multi- element effects and improve capability and validity to analyze heat transfer and ignition in large, multi-element injectors.

Jones, Gregg↗

About the Effect of Control on Flutter and Post-Flutter of a Supersonic/Hypersonic Cross-Sectional Wing

The control of the flutter instability and the conversion of the dangerous character of the flutter instability boundary into the undangerous one of a cross-sectional wing in a supersonic/hypersonic flow field is presented. The objective of this paper is twofold: i) to analyze the implications of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics and physical nonlinearities on the character of the instability boundary in the presence of a control capability, and ii) to outline the effects played in the same respect by some important parameters of the aeroelastic system. As a by-product of this analysis, the implications of the active control on the linearized flutter behavior of the system are captured and emphasized. The bifurcation behavior of the open/closed loop aeroelastic system in the vicinity of the flutter boundary is studied via the use of a new methodology based on the Liapunov First Quantity. The expected outcome of this study is: a) to greatly enhance the scope and reliability of the aeroelastic analysis and design criteria of advanced supersonic/hypersonic flight vehicles and, b) provide a theoretical basis for the analysis of more complex nonlinear aeroelastic systems.

Silva, Walter A.↗

About the Effect of Control on Flutter and Post-Flutter of a Supersonic/Hypersonic Cross-Sectional Wing

The control of the flutter instability and the conversion of the dangerous character of the flutter instability boundary into the undangerous one of a cross-sectional wing in a supersonic/hypersonic flow field is presented. The objective of this paper is twofold: i) to analyze the implications of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics and physical nonlinearities on the character of the instability boundary in the presence of a control capability, and ii) to outline the effects played in the same respect by some important parameters of the aeroelastic system. As a by-product of this analysis, the implications of the active control on the linearized flutter behavior of the system are captured and emphasized. The bifurcation behavior of the open/closed loop aeroelastic system in the vicinity of the flutter boundary is studied via the use of a new methodology based on the Liapunov First Quantity. The expected outcome of this study is: a) to greatly enhance the scope and reliability of the aeroelastic analysis and design criteria of advanced supersonic/hypersonic flight vehicles and, b) provide a theoretical basis for the analysis of more complex nonlinear aeroelastic systems.

Marzocca, Piergiovanni↗

Asteroseismic Determination of the Stellar Rotation Period of the Kepler Transiting Planetary Systems and its Implications for the Spin–Orbit Architecture

We measure the rotation periods of 19 stars in the Kepler transiting planetary systems, P {sub rot,astero} from asteroseismology and P {sub rot,phot} from the photometric variation of their light curves. Two stars exhibit two clear peaks in the Lomb–Scargle periodogram, neither of which agrees with the seismic rotation period. Other four systems do not show any clear peak, whose stellar rotation period is impossible to estimate reliably from the photometric variation; their stellar equators may be significantly inclined with respect to the planetary orbital plane. For the remaining 13 systems, P {sub rot,astero} and P{sub rot,phot} agree within 30%. Interestingly, 3 out of the 13 systems are in the spin–orbit resonant state in which P{sub orb,b}/P{sub rot,astero}≈1 with P {sub orb,b} being the orbital period of the innermost planet of each system. The corresponding chance probability is (0.2–4.7)% based on the photometric rotation period data for 464 Kepler transiting planetary systems. While further analysis of stars with reliable rotation periods is required to examine the statistical significance, the spin–orbit resonance between the star and planets, if confirmed, has important implications for the star–planet tidal interaction, in addition to the origin of the spin–orbit (mis-)alignment of transiting planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Integrated Approach To Design And Analysis Of Systems

Object-oriented fault-tree representation unifies evaluation of reliability and diagnosis of faults. Programming/fault tree described more fully in "Object-Oriented Algorithm For Evaluation Of Fault Trees" (ARC-12731). Augmented fault tree object contains more information than fault tree object used in quantitative analysis of reliability. Additional information needed to diagnose faults in system represented by fault tree.

Patterson-Hine, F. A.↗

Dye Penetrant Crack Detectability in External Corners in Presence of Fillet Radius

NASA uses special dye penetrant nondestructive evaluation process to provide reliable detection of very small cracks. Typically the surface crack lengths sizes are 0.030' and 0.050' for special dye penetrant process. Qualification requires demonstration of crack detection on a set of cracks with average crack size smaller than or equal to the qualification crack size. The demonstration is called point estimate demonstration. A set of corner cracks can be used to determine reliably detectable corner crack using the point estimate demonstration method. However, dye penetrant demonstration on surface cracks can be used to assess reliably detectable corner crack sizes by using similarity in the penetrant process. The paper provides similarity analysis approach for determining the reliably detectable corner crack sizes for given a point estimate demonstrated surface crack size.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

NASA Reference Motor Designs for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles

Electric and hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles require high performance and high reliability electric motor drivetrains. Failure analysis of NASA’s Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technologies’ reference vehicles pointed to current electric motor drivetrain reliability being below what is needed to meet the expected stringent reliability requirements for Urban Air Mobility vehicles. In this paper, design studies are carried out for UAM vehicle electric motors to produce reference designs. The primary intent of these reference motor designs is to provide guidance for UAM motor reliability model development and technology advancement. They additionally provide high fidelity motor sizing information for vehicle designers and references for different technologies or motor topologies to be traded against.

Electric Motor Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA Reference Motor Designs for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles

Electric and hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles require high performance and high reliability electric motor drivetrains. Failure analysis of NASA’s Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technologies’ reference vehicles pointed to current electric motor drivetrain reliability being below what is needed to meet the expected stringent reliability requirements for Urban Air Mobility vehicles [1]. In this paper, design studies are carried out for UAM vehicle electric motors to produce reference designs. The primary intent of these reference motor designs is to provide guidance for UAM motor reliability model development and technology advancement. They additionally provide high fidelity motor sizing information for vehicle designers and references for different technologies or motor topologies to be traded against.

Thomas Tallerico↗

A validation methodology for fault-tolerant clock synchronization

A validation method for the synchronization subsystem of a fault-tolerant computer system is presented. The high reliability requirement of flight crucial systems precludes the use of most traditional validation methods. The method presented utilizes formal design proof to uncover design and coding errors and experimentation to validate the assumptions of the design proof. The experimental method is described and illustrated by validating an experimental implementation of the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) clock synchronization algorithm. The design proof of the algorithm defines the maximum skew between any two nonfaulty clocks in the system in terms of theoretical upper bounds on certain system parameters. The quantile to which each parameter must be estimated is determined by a combinatorial analysis of the system reliability. The parameters are measured by direct and indirect means, and upper bounds are estimated. A nonparametric method based on an asymptotic property of the tail of a distribution is used to estimate the upper bound of a critical system parameter. Although the proof process is very costly, it is extremely valuable when validating the crucial synchronization subsystem.

Johnson, S. C.↗

Statistical analysis of failure data on controllers and SSME turbine blade failures

The expressions for the maximum likelihood functions are given when the failure data are censored at a given point or at multiple points, or when the data come in groups. Different models applicable to failure data are presented with their characteristics. A graphical method of distinguishing different models by using cumulative hazard fucnction is discussed. For the failure data on controllers the model is determined by cumulative hazard function and chi-square goodness of fit. Using the Weibull Model the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the failure rate parameter are obtained. The confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and B1 are determined. Similarly, for the data on Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) blade failures the maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the Weibull parameters. The variances, confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and reliability are determined. The analysis is performed under assumption of grouped data as well as randomly placed data.

Patil, S. A.↗

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗