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Extending the Search for Muon Neutrinos Coincident with Gamma-Ray Bursts in IceCube Data

We present an all-sky search for muon neutrinos produced during the prompt γ-ray emission of 1172 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The detection of these neutrinos would constitute evidence for ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray (UHECR) production in GRBs, as interactions between accelerated protons and the prompt γ-ray field would yield charged pions, which decay to neutrinos. A previously reported search for muon neutrino tracks from northern hemisphere GRBs has been extended to include three additional years of IceCube data. A search for such tracks from southern hemisphere GRBs in five years of IceCube data has been introduced to enhance our sensitivity to the highest energy neutrinos. No significant correlation between neutrino events and observed GRBs is seen in the new data. Combining this result with previous muon neutrino track searches and a search for cascade signature events from all neutrino flavors, we obtain new constraints for single-zone fireball models of GRB neutrino and UHECR production.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An updated estimate of the Mu2e experiment sensitivity

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a negative muon into an electron inside the field of a nucleus. This process does not conserve charged-lepton flavour and is heavily suppressed in the Standard Model (SM), with a branching ratio < 10-50. Any evidence of it would be an undeniable evidence of new physics beyond the SM. The project sets out to achieve a single event sensitivity of $\sim 3 × 10^{-17}$ on the ratio between the probability for a conversion of a negative muon into an electron and the one for a muon capture by the nucleus. Such a sensitivity would represent a 4 orders of magnitude improvement on the previous upper limit for the process, making possible to test predictions of different extensions of the SM. Mu2e uses three superconducting solenoids to produce and measure the muon conversions. In the first solenoid, the Production Solenoid, pions and kaons are produced, together with other secondary products, by 8 GeV kinetic energy proton interactions in a tungsten target. A gradient magnetic field is specifically designed to direct low momentum particles into the Transport Solenoid, an S-shaped magnet that filters out particles with unwanted charge and momentum. Muons, produced by pion and kaon decays, finally reach the aluminum Stopping Target in the Detector Solenoid, where they eventually stop and convert. The result of the conversion process is a monochromatic electron of ~105 MeV/c momentum. The Detector Solenoid also hosts the two main detectors: a straw tube tracker and two CsI calorimeter disks, both providing measurement of event kinematics. A germanium detector and a LaBr crystal are located downstream of the Detector Solenoid to measure the X and gamma rays produced by the muon captures in the Stopping Target. A veto system of scintillators covering the Detector Solenoid and half of the Transport Solenoid is used to identify and reject cosmic rays interactions. With respect to the initial project, the Mu2e running plan has evolved to a staged configuration with 2 years at reduced intensity before the 2025 accelerator shutdown for the neutrino beam upgrade and 2 or 3 years at full intensity after that. This, together with geometry changes and a better knowledge of detector performances obtained by the first slice tests, has required a full revision of the signal over background selection that is the subject of this thesis. In order to achieve a new estimate of Mu2e sensitivity, the simulation of the data corresponding to the first 2 years of data acquisition has been performed. This includes both conversion electrons (CE) and the main sources of background: cosmics, decay-in orbits (DIO), radiative pion captures (RPC) and antiprotons. The characteristics of the signal and of the main backgrounds have been studied to define the best selection variables for CE. A special effort has been devoted to the evaluation of the antiproton background. The lack of experimental data for antiproton production cross section makes the systematic uncertainty on this background significant. A new parameterization of the cross section has been developed to fit the existing data and to provide a more reliable estimate of the systematic uncertainty by comparing the results of the old and the new model. A special effort has been devoted to the optimization of the antiprotons Monte Carlo generator. This study has also revealed that the dominant component within this background is represented by antiprotons produced in the opposite direction with respect to the Transport Solenoid entrance and then redirected to it by back-scattering processes in the Production Target. This ultimately highlights the sensitivity of the background estimate to the G4 handling of antiproton interactions in the 1 to 3 GeV/c momentum range. Finally, the final experimental sensitivity has been studied. The momentum and time selection have been optimized to obtain the 5-sigma discovery reach or, in case of no signal, the upper limit on conversion probability. The results confirm that, in the firs t two years of data taking, Mu2e will be able to improve the current experimental sensitivity for muon-to-electron conversion in an atomic field by more than 3 order of magnitudes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Time-continuous assimilation of remote-sounding data and its effect on weather forecasting

Methods were developed for the time-continuous assimilation of satellite-sounding temperature data: direct insertion method, asynoptic successive correction method, and local linear regression method. These methods were applied to DST-6 data from the operational and experimental temperature sounders aboard the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. Attention is given to a comparison of these methods and their effect on the accuracy of the initial states obtained, as well as the resulting forecasts generated from these initial states. The results suggest that (1) satellite-derived temperature data can have a modest though statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the 2-3 day range; (2) the impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available; and (3) the method of satellite-data assimilation can substantially influence the magnitude of the impact obtained for the same data.

Ghil, M.↗

Developing Synthetic Distribution Models Using Open-Source Data Sets

The deployment of distributed generation resources at scale with the distribution side of the power system network over the last two decades has spurred a lot of research interest in distribution networks. Given, the sensitive nature of power system data sets, utilities are still reluctant to open-source distribution networks. Although some open-source data sets are available, they may not cover the region of interest. In this paper, we introduce the Synthetic dIstribution Network Generator (SING), new software that allows users to develop synthetic distribution models, using open-source data sets, in any region of interest within the continental US.

data set↗

Shape optimization of three-dimensional stamped and solid automotive components

The shape optimization of realistic, 3-D automotive components is discussed. The integration of the major parts of the total process: modeling, mesh generation, finite element and sensitivity analysis, and optimization are stressed. Stamped components and solid components are treated separately. For stamped parts a highly automated capability was developed. The problem description is based upon a parameterized boundary design element concept for the definition of the geometry. Automatic triangulation and adaptive mesh refinement are used to provide an automated analysis capability which requires only boundary data and takes into account sensitivity of the solution accuracy to boundary shape. For solid components a general extension of the 2-D boundary design element concept has not been achieved. In this case, the parameterized surface shape is provided using a generic modeling concept based upon isoparametric mapping patches which also serves as the mesh generator. Emphasis is placed upon the coupling of optimization with a commercially available finite element program. To do this it is necessary to modularize the program architecture and obtain shape design sensitivities using the material derivative approach so that only boundary solution data is needed.

Botkin, M. E.↗

Geothermal Fault Zone and Fluid Imaging through Joint Airborne ZTEM and Ground MT Data Inversion Analysis

This project has aimed to achieve detailed electrical resistivity resolution at geothermal reservoir scales by combining airborne natural electromagnetic (EM) field surveying (ZTEM) with ground magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to approximate an airborne MT geophysical method. MT alone is relatively expensive and may have permitting challenges in sensitive areas. Airborne ZTEM field data contains only the magnetic field, requires a background assumption, and has been limited to relatively high frequencies, thus suffering uniqueness problems. Based on proto-type 2D simulations, ZTEM ambiguities may be reduced through formal incorporation with possibly sparse ground MT soundings, which we pursued in full 3D for this project. The methodology was tested at the high-temperature Roosevelt Hot Springs geothermal system, Utah, which was considered advantageous given the near total exposure of crystalline reservoir rocks across the project area. ZTEM and ground MT survey data were acquired in 2017, subcontracted to outside parties with which we have worked in the past. These included 80 remote-referenced tensor MT soundings over the Mineral Mountains and adjacent Roosevelt Hot Spring producing geothermal system. These MT stations abut later coverage of a similar number of MT stations taken for the Utah FORGE project providing excellent total data aperture to re-solve structure beneath both project areas better than either set alone. The airborne ZTEM survey covered 704 line kilometers in E-W flight lines with a 250 m line spacing. Although this survey was timed during a maintenance-related shutdown of power production at the Roosevelt Hot Springs, other noise sources difficult to identify but including two high-voltage state-scale transmission lines compromised the ZTEM survey badly leading to unusable responses. Thus, with DOE management concurrence, the project proceeded to emphasize inversion and interpretation of the joint SubTER-FORGE MT data sets with regard to the Roosevelt Hot Springs reservoir recharge and to deep heat sources for both it and the Utah FORGE EGS project area. We also investigated the joint ZTEM-MT sampling concept with data sets from the Eleven Mile Canyon prospect area donated by the U.S. Navy (A. Sabin, PoC). Inversion of the SubTER-FORGE MT data using the HexMT 3D finite element algorithm reveals a large, low-resistivity anomaly extending sub-vertically through the depth range of the crust beneath the western Mineral Mountains. The steep conductive zone connects in the lower crust to a more tabular conductor characteristic of much of the Great Basin that generally is ascribed to current mafic magmatic underplating, hybridization and fluid release. The location of the resolved anomaly relative to the recent (0.5-0.8 Ma) eruptive centers of the Mineral Mountains implicates it as remnants of the magma body which fed these centers. This structure appears to be currently feeding heat and fluids upward into the Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system, as well as heat laterally to the FORGE project area. Separate and joint inversion models were carried out for the donated Eleven Mile Canyon MT-ZTEM data set to demonstrate concept. ZTEM only inversion showed two main alteration zones in the western portion of the project area known from geological mapping. Joint inversion including an E-W profile of MT soundings sharpened these features considerably. It also resolved in much greater detail the graben related normal faulting structure of the central project area which lies at depths exceeding the sensitivity of ZTEM alone. The sparse number of MT da-ta relative to the ZTEM required upweighting the former by a factor of several, but an exact procedure awaits future research. Our final impression is that sparse MT data can improve resolution of the subsurface over that of ZTEM alone. However, well sampled MT data are to be preferred and offer the simplicity of interpreting just one data type, and possess the superior resolution capability coming with the electric field everywhere, and from their high bandwidth.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Numerical Simulation of a Natural Convection–Driven Air-Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System Experiment

Ensuring the efficient removal of decay heat from the reactor vessel is essential for the safety of advanced reactor technologies. Several Generation-IV concepts incorporate variations in the reactor vessel cooling systems to achieve this objective. High-temperature gas-cooled reactors utilize a reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS), a passive ex-vessel system designed to operate without active components or external power during accident conditions. The RCCS removes decay heat primarily through radiative and convective heat transfer mechanisms. Here, this study presents a comprehensive validation of a computational fluid dynamics Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes model for the University of Wisconsin-Madison air-cooled RCCS facility. Validation was conducted for both high- and low-power natural convection cases under a uniform heating profile. Near-wall resolution was found to be critical for accurately modeling natural convection in the RCCS; employing an all-𝑦 + wall treatment resulted in wall temperature discrepancies exceeding 50 °⁢𝐶 compared to a wall-resolved mesh. Thermal-hydraulic behaviors under natural and forced convection conditions were compared within the heated cavity and RCCS. A turbulence model sensitivity analysis indicated that low-Reynolds number k-ɛ, k-ω shear stress transport (SST), and Reynolds stress transport models produce similar wall temperature predictions. A buoyancy modeling sensitivity study revealed that the Boussinesq approximation significantly underpredicted thermal-hydraulic behavior in the RCCS. Based on these findings, modeling recommendations are provided. The validated data set along with identified sensitivities refine the modeling of natural convection in the RCCS. The information produced by this study supports RCCS design, optimization, and safety evaluations, enabling the calibration and verification of reduced-order thermal-hydraulic models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The atmosphere of Sirius B. II - Extreme-ultraviolet observations

The letter reports an observation of Sirius in the extreme-ultraviolet (100-1000 A) band, using a grazing-incidence telescope flown aboard the Apollo-Soyuz mission. No positive flux is detected; under the arbitrary assumption of flat incident spectrum, an upper limit to the flux in the 170-620 A band is 5 billion erg/sq cm per sec. A detailed model-atmosphere analysis, when combined with the EUV limits, places severe constraints on models which attribute the previously reported soft X-ray (44-60 A) flux to thermal radiation from deep layers of the atmosphere of the white dwarf Sirius B. EUV radiation should be detectable from Sirius B just below the sensitivity threshold of the current data, or a thermal origin for the X-ray flux is untenable. If the X-ray flux is thermal, the present results provide extremely sensitive constraints on the temperature and helium abundance of Sirius B: the white dwarf has an effective temperature of 32,000 K to 32,500 K and a helium abundance (relative to hydrogen) of 0.0001 to 0.0002.

Shipman, H. L.↗

Optimized Profile Retrievals of Aerosol Microphysical Properties from Simulated Spaceborne Multiwavelength Lidar

This work is an expanded study of one previously published onretrievals of aerosol microphysical properties from space-borne multiwavelengthlidarmeasurements. The earlier studiesand this one weredone in the framework of the NASA Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems (now the Aerosol Clouds Convection and Precipitation) NASA mission. The focus here is on the capabilities of a simulated spacebornemultiwavelengthlidar system for retrieving aerosol complex refractive index (m = mr+ imi) and spectral single scattering albedo (SSA(λ)), although other bulk parameters such as effective (reff) radius and particle volume (V) and surface (S) concentrations are also studied. The novelty presented here is the use of recently published, case dependent optimized-constraints on the microphysical retrievals using three backscattering coefficients (β) at 355, 532 and 1064 nm and two extinction coefficients (α) at 355 and 532 nm, typically known as the stand-alone 3β+2α lidar inversion. Case-dependent optimized-constraints (CDOC) limit the ranges of refractive index, both real (mr) and imaginary (mi) parts, and of radii that are permitted in the retrievals. Such constraints are selected directly from the 3β+2α41measurements through an analysis of the relationship between spectral dependence of aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratios (LR) and the Ångström exponent of extinction. The analyses presented here for different sets ofsize distributions and refractive indices reveal that the direct determination of CDOCareonly feasible for cases where the uncertaintiesin the input optical data areless than 15 %.Forthe same simulated spacebornesystem and yield than in Whiteman et al., (2018), we demonstrated that the use of CDOC as essential for the retrievals of refractive index and also largely improved retrieval of bulk parameters. A discussion of the global representativeness of CDOC is presented using simulated lidar data from a 24-hour satellite track using GEOS model output to initialize the lidar simulator.We found that CDOCare representative of many aerosol mixtures in spite of some outliers (e.g. highly hydrated particles) associatedwith the assumptions of bimodal size distributions and of the same refractive index for fine and coarse modes. Moreover, sensitivity tests performed using synthetic data reveal that retrievals of imaginary refractive index (mi) and SSA are extremely sensitive to β(355).

NASA Aerosol-Clouds-Ecosystems↗

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of the SparTen High Performance Sparse Tensor Decomposition Software (Extended Analysis)

Tensor decomposition models play an increasingly important role in modern data science applications. One problem of particular interest is fitting a low-rank Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition model when the tensor has sparse structure and the tensor elements are nonnegative count data. SparTen is a high-performance C++ library which computes a low-rank decomposition using different solvers: a first-order quasi-Newton or a second-order damped Newton method, along with the appropriate choice of runtime parameters. Since default parameters in SparTen are tuned to experimental results in prior published work on a single real-world dataset conducted using MATLAB implementations of these methods, it remains unclear if the parameter defaults in SparTen are appropriate for general tensor data. Furthermore, it is unknown how sensitive algorithm convergence is to changes in the input parameter values. This report addresses these unresolved issues with large-scale experimentation on three benchmark tensor data sets. Experiments were conducted on several different CPU architectures and replicated with many initial states to establish generalized profiles of algorithm convergence behavior.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Single event upset sensitivity of low power Schottky devices

Data taken from tests involving heavy ions in the Berkeley 88 in. cyclotron being directed at low power Schottky barrier devices are reported. The tests also included trials in the Harvard cyclotron with 130 MeV protons, and at the U.C. Davis cyclotron using 56 MeV protons. The experiments were performed to study the single event upsets in MSI logic devices containing flip-flops. Results are presented of single-event upsets (SEU) causing functional degradation observed in post-exposure tests of six different devices. The effectiveness of the particles in producing SEUs in logic device functioning was found to be directly proportional to the proton energy. Shielding was determined to offer negligible protection from the particle bombardment. The results are considered significant for the design and fabrication of LS devices for space applications.

Price, W. E.↗

Development of visible/infrared/microwave agriculture classification and biomass estimation algorithms, volume 2

Agricultural crop classification models using two or more spectral regions (visible through microwave) were developed and tested and biomass was estimated by including microwave with visible and infrared data. The study was conducted at Guymon, Oklahoma and Dalhart, Texas utilizing aircraft multispectral data and ground truth soil moisture and biomass information. Results indicate that inclusion of C, L, and P band active microwave data from look angles greater than 35 deg from nadir with visible and infrared data improved crop discrimination and biomass estimates compared to results using only visible and infrared data. The active microwave frequencies were sensitive to different biomass levels. In addition, two indices, one using only active microwave data and the other using data from the middle and near infrared bands, were well correlated to total biomass.

Rosenthal, W. D.↗

A study of the influence of satellite data on GLA analyses over the Atlantic Ocean during a period of blocking anticyclone development

This paper presents a statistical diagnosis of the differences between two Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres analysis representations of temperature and wind speed, one containing satellite data influences (SAT analyses) and one without (NOSAT analyses), for a case of oceanic blocking anticyclone development. Results, obtained using area means and standard deviations of the two fields and correlation coefficients and root-mean-square differences between the two fields, indicate that the inclusion of satellite data can have significant impact on ocean-domain analyses. This is especially evident if one examines higher-order fields that represent gradients in the basic variable fields or contain covariances between two different variables (e.g., advections). More specifically, the inclusion of satellite data resulted in a cold (warm) temperature bias at low (high) levels and weaker temperature gradients, stronger winds, weaker vertical wind shears, and a warm-air advection bias at most levels. The SAT analyses also exhibited larger standard deviations than the NOSAT for wind speed, relative vorticity, vorticity advection, temperature advection, and 500-mb height tendencies, suggesting that for this case the spatial variability of the circulation features were enhanced by the inclusion of satellite data. Even so, since height tendencies forced by vorticity and temperature advection were less sensitive to the addition of satellite data than were the advection quantities themselves, the dynamics of the blocking system was apparently less influenced by the presence of satellite data than was the structure of the system.

Lamberty, Gregory L.↗

Effect of Liquid Penetrant Sensitivity on Probability of Detection

The objective of the task is to investigate the effect of liquid penetrant sensitivity level on probability of crack detection (POD). NASA-STD-5009 currently requires the use of only sensitivity level 4 liquid penetrants. This requirement is based on the fact that the data generated in the NTIAC Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Capabilities Data Book was produced using only sensitivity level 4 penetrants. Many NDE contractors supporting NASA Centers routinely use sensitivity level 3 penetrants. Because of the new NASA-STD-5009 requirement, these contractors will have to either shift to sensitivity level 4 penetrants or perform formal POD demonstration tests to qualify their existing process.

Parker, Bradford H.↗

Resource Balancing Control Allocation

Next generation aircraft with a large number of actuators will require advanced control allocation methods to compute the actuator commands needed to follow desired trajectories while respecting system constraints. Previously, algorithms were proposed to minimize the l1 or l2 norms of the tracking error and of the control effort. The paper discusses the alternative choice of using the l1 norm for minimization of the tracking error and a normalized l(infinity) norm, or sup norm, for minimization of the control effort. The algorithm computes the norm of the actuator deflections scaled by the actuator limits. Minimization of the control effort then translates into the minimization of the maximum actuator deflection as a percentage of its range of motion. The paper shows how the problem can be solved effectively by converting it into a linear program and solving it using a simplex algorithm. Properties of the algorithm are investigated through examples. In particular, the min-max criterion results in a type of resource balancing, where the resources are the control surfaces and the algorithm balances these resources to achieve the desired command. A study of the sensitivity of the algorithms to the data is presented, which shows that the normalized l(infinity) algorithm has the lowest sensitivity, although high sensitivities are observed whenever the limits of performance are reached.

Frost, Susan A.↗

A statistical method for time-continuous assimilation of remote sounding temperatures

A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four-dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiometric measurements from polar-orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST-6 data from the NOAA-4 and Nimbus-6 satellites. Experiments are reported in which the state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data and in which different methods were used for their assimilation. Data from the NOAA-4 satellite only, from Nimbus-6 only, and from both satellites together were used; the methods tested include different variations of the statistical method as well as more traditional methods. The conclusions are that: (1) satellite-derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two-to-three day range; (2) this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available; and (3) the assimilation method plays a major role in the magnitude of the impact for the same data.

Ghil, M.↗

Some experiments on the effect of remote sounding temperatures upon weather forecasting

A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.

Halem, M.↗