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At least 1,009 records · Page 56

A Comment on the Suspected Solar Neutrino-Solar Activity Connection

Recently, it has been proposed that there exists a highly statistically significant (at greater than or equal to 98% level of confidence) relationship between Ar-37 production rate (viz., solar neutrinos) and the Ap geomagnetic index (viz., solar particles), based on the (chi)-square goodness-of-fit test and correlation analysis, for the interval 1970-1990. While a relationship between the two parameters, indeed, seems to be discernible, the strength of the relationship has been overstated. Instead of being significant at the afore-mentioned level of confidence, the relationship is found to be significant at only greater than or equal to 95% level of confidence, based on Yates' modification to the (chi)-square test for 2 x 2 contingency tables. Likewise, while correlation analysis yields a value of r = 0.2691, it is important to note that such a value suggests that only about 7% of the variance can be 'explained' by the inferred correlation and that the remaining 93% of the variance must be attributed to other sources.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Study of Magnetic Motions in the Solar Photosphere and their Implications for Heating the Solar Atmosphere

We continued our program of CO observations with the McMath-Pierce facility at Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory. Uitenbroek has developed a two-and three dimensional radiative transfer code that now includes chemical equilibrium calculations. This code allows us to compute a CO spectrum from for instance a snapshot of a solar granulation simulation (e.g. Stein & Nordlund 1989, Apj 342, L95) and compare these theoretical spectra with our spatially resolved CO spectroscopy. Van Ballegooijen and Uitenbroek have started calculations of two-dimensional fluxtube models that account consistently for hydrogen ionization in the calculation of the electron density. To this end we solve radiative transfer for hydrogen (bound-bound and bound-free transitions) in the two-dimensional models, including the effect of partial frequency redistribution (PRD) in the Lyman (alpha) and (beta) lines. From our internally consistent models we will calculate emergent spectra and the way these vary with location of some well-known spectral diagnostics and compare our results with observed line profiles. We can readily compare theoretical CO profiles from out models with our spatially resolved CO observations. Also we can compare with spatially resolved Ca II (ground based) and Mg II (we have observations done with the UVSP/SMM instrument), and Lyman (alpha) observations that should be available from SUMER/SOHO.

Noyes, Robert W.↗

The solar minimum X2.6/1B flare and CME of 9 July 1996: Solar data - Pt. 1

The solar observations from GOES-8, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and the Yohkoh satellite concerning the events of the X-class flare are discussed. The Michelson Doppler imager (MDI) magnetometer shows a new region of magnetic activity in AR 7978. The rapid development and evolution of this region is shown by the MDI and the extreme-ultraviolet Doppler telescope (EDT) data. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed using coronagraphs are presented. The possible association between the CME and the X-flare is considered.

Andrews, M. D.↗

Studies of Solar Flare and Interplanetary Particle Acceleration and Coordination of Ground-Based Solar Observations in Support of US and International Space Missions

A primary focus has been to conduct studies of particular types of hard X-ray evolution in solar flares and their associations with high energy interplanetary protons observed near Earth. Previously, two large investigations were conducted that revealed strong associations between episodes of progressive spectral hardening seen in solar events and interplanetary proton events (Kiplinger, 1995). An algorithm was developed for predicting interplanetary protons that is more accurate than those currently in use when hard X-ray spectra are available. The basic research on a third study of the remaining independent subset of Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) events randomly not selected by the original studies was completed. This third study involves independent analyses of the data by two analysts. The results echo the success of the earlier studies. Of 405 flares analyzed, 12 events were predicted to have associated interplanetary protons at the Space Environment Service Center (SESC) level. Of these, five events appear to be directly associated with SESC proton events, six other events had lower level associated proton events, and there was only one false alarm with no protons. Another study by Garcia and Kiplinger (1995) established that progressively hardening hard X-ray flares associated with interplanetary proton events are intrinsically cooler and not extremely intense in soft X-rays unless a "contaminating" large impulsive flare accompanies the hardening flare.

Kiplinger, Alan L.↗

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Properties of Minor Ions In the Solar Wind and Implications for the Background Solar Wind Plasma

Ion charge states measured in situ in interplanetary space carry information on the properties of the solar wind plasma in the inner corona. The goal of the proposal is to determine coronal plasma conditions that produce the in situ observed charge states. This study is carried out using solar wind models, coronal observations, ion fraction calculations and in situ observations.

Esser, Ruth↗

The Living With a Star CDAW on the Solar and Geospace Connections of Solar Energetic Particles

The Living With a Star Program is sponsoring its first CDAW (Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop) to be held July 23-26, 2002 at a conference support location near the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This CDAW's topic is Solar Energetic Particle events. The topic was chosen due to the breadth of the impact of SEP's on the space environment and terrestrial climate. General goals of the LWS CDAW are a) Stimulate LWS Science on the near term, b) Facilitate cross-disciplinary interaction between the LWS scientific and space environment communities, c) Produce science products for all potential users, and d) Assist in the development of the LWS data system. The workshop will proceed similar to a previous CDAW held in 1999 on Interplanetary Type 11 Shocks. A list of target events has been compiled, which can be found at the workshop home page. The page lists all of the SEP events from 1996 January to 2001 December with energy > 10 MeV particle intensities exceeding 10 PFU. Preparation for the workshop consists of identifying relevant data from a wide variety of sources (solar, interplanetary, magnetospheric and climatary), accumulating the data (frequently this consists of both raw data, processed data and plots to ease perusal during the workshop) and gathering the software tools. Participants in the workshop are expected to complete their contributions of data or models prior to arriving at the workshop. Most of the CDAW consists of joint analysis of this data; only a few introductory talks are given at the beginning of the workshop, with the rest of the time being devoted to producing scientific results. Additional symposia may be scheduled at a later date, which will allow a venue for scientific talks on the CDAW results and associated science. The poster will list the scientific goals of the workshop, as well as a scientific discussion of the data which has been accumulated thus far.

Thompson, Barbara J.↗

Predicting the Structure of the Solar Corona During the December 4, 2002 Total Solar Eclipse

The solar magnetic field plays a key role in determining coronal. The principal input to MHD models is the observed solar magnetic field. 3D MHD models can be used to compare with eclipse and coronograph images, SOHO images (LOSCO, EIT), Ulysses and WIND spacecraft data, and interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements. MHD computations can tell us about the structure of the corona. Eclipses can help us to verify the accuracy of the models. 4 December, 2002 total eclipce: visible in the southern hemisphere (South Atlantic, southern Africa, Indian Ocean, and Australia). Total in center Angola is at 06:00 UT.

Mikic, Zoran↗

Unified Models of Turbulence and Nonlinear Wave Evolution in the Extended Solar Corona and Solar Wind

The PI (Cranmer) and Co-I (A. van Ballegooijen) made substantial progress toward the goal of producing a unified model of the basic physical processes responsible for solar wind acceleration. The approach outlined in the original proposal comprised two complementary pieces: (1) to further investigate individual physical processes under realistic coronal and solar wind conditions, and (2) to extract the dominant physical effects from simulations and apply them to a 1D model of plasma heating and acceleration. The accomplishments in Year 2 are divided into these two categories: 1a. Focused Study of Kinetic Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Turbulence. lb. Focused Study of Non - WKB Alfven Wave Rejection. and 2. The Unified Model Code. We have continued the development of the computational model of a time-study open flux tube in the extended corona. The proton-electron Monte Carlo model is being tested, and collisionless wave-particle interactions are being included. In order to better understand how to easily incorporate various kinds of wave-particle processes into the code, the PI performed a detailed study of the so-called "Ito Calculus", i.e., the mathematical theory of how to update the positions of particles in a probabilistic manner when their motions are governed by diffusion in velocity space.

Cranmer, Steven R.↗

A Search for Solar Sources of High-Speed Solar Wind Streams

This report covers technical progress during the third and fourth years of Subcontract No. 5710000474, 'A Search for Solar Sources of High-speed Solar Wind Streams,' between Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), covering the period November 2000 to December 2002. This is a subcontract originating from NASA SR&T Contract NAG5-7967 with MIT. In the following sections we summarize our progress during this reporting period.

Mikic, Zoran↗

How Large Scale Flows in the Solar Convection Zone may Influence Solar Activity

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun s magnetic activity cycle. Differential rotation can amplify the magnetic field and convert poloidal fields into toroidal fields. Poleward meridional flow near the surface can carry magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles and can convert toroidal fields into poloidal fields. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow can carry magnetic flux toward the equator where it can reconnect with oppositely directed fields in the other hemisphere. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. The effects of the Sun s rotation on convection produce velocity correlations that can maintain the differential rotation and meridional circulation. These convective motions can influence solar activity themselves by shaping the large-scale magnetic field pattern. While considerable theoretical advances have been made toward understanding these large scale flows, outstanding problems in matching theory to observations still remain.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

Analysis of Solar Receiver Flux Distributions for US/Russian Solar Dynamic System Demonstration on the MIR Space Station

Analyses have been performed at the NASA Lewis Research Center's Power Systems Project Office to support the design and development of the joint U.S./Russian Solar Dynamic Flight Demonstration Project. The optical analysis of the concentrator and solar flux predictions on target receiver surfaces have an important influence on receiver design and control of the Brayton engine.

Source record↗

Solar cell circuit and method for manufacturing solar cells

The invention is a novel manufacturing method for making multi-junction solar cell circuits that addresses current problems associated with such circuits by allowing the formation of integral diodes in the cells and allows for a large number of circuits to readily be placed on a single silicon wafer substrate. The standard Ge wafer used as the base for multi-junction solar cells is replaced with a thinner layer of Ge or a II-V semiconductor material on a silicon/silicon dioxide substrate. This allows high-voltage cells with multiple multi-junction circuits to be manufactured on a single wafer, resulting in less array assembly mass and simplified power management.

Mardesich, Nick↗

Solar Source and CME Properties of Solar Cycle 23 Ground Level Enhancement Events

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. GLE events are extreme cases of solar energetic particle (SEP) events in that the energetic particles penetrate Earth's neutral atmosphere to be detected by neutron monitors. In this paper we present the CME and their source properties that seem to be equally extreme. These observations are consistent with the idea that the GLE particles are accelerated in the same way as the regular SEP events by CME-driven shocks. While we cannot rule out the possibility of the presence of a flare component during GLE events, we can definitely say that a shock component is present in all the GLE events. We provide additional information on the GLE-associated type II radio bursts, complex type III radio bursts, and soft X-ray flares, which are not very different from those associated with large SEP events. Finally we compare the properties of GLEassociated CMEs in cycle 23 with those in cycle 22.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

The Interaction of the Solar Wind with Solar Probe Plus - 3D Hybrid Simulation: The Study for the Distance 4.5Rs - Report 1

Our report devotes a 3D numerical hybrid model of the interaction of the solar wind with the Solar Probe spacecraft. The SPP model includes 3 main parts, namely, a non-conducting heat shield, a support system, and cylindrical section or spacecraft bus that contains the particle analysis devices and antenna. One observes an excitation of the low frequency Alfven and whistler type wave directed by the magnetic field with an amplitude of about (0.06-0.6) V/m. The compression waves and the jumps in an electric field with an amplitude of about (0.15-0.7) V/m were also observed. The wave amplitudes are comparable to or greater than previously estimated max wave amplitudes that SPP is expected to measure. The results of our hybrid simulation will be useful for understanding the plasma environment near the SPP spacecraft at the distance 4.5 Rs. Future simulation will take into account the charging of the spacecraft, the charge separation effects, an outgassing from heat shield, a photoionization and an electron impact ionization effects near the spacecraft.

Lipatov, Alexander S.↗

Erratum to "Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23-Paper 1" [J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 70(2-4) (2008) 245-253]

One of the figures (Fig. 4) in "Solar sources and geospace consequences of interplanetary magnetic Clouds observed during solar cycle 23 -- Paper 1" by Gopalswamy et al. (2008, JASTP, Vol. 70, Issues 2-4, February 2008, pp. 245-253) is incorrect because of a software error in t he routine that was used to make the plot. The source positions of various magnetic cloud (MC) types are therefore not plotted correctly.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Approaching Solar Maximum 24 with Stereo-Multipoint Observations of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Since the beginning of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission at the end of 2006, the two spacecraft have now separated by more than 130◦ degrees from the Earth. A 360-degree view of the Sun has been possible since February 2011, providing multipoint in situ and remote sensing observations of unprecedented quality. Combining STEREO observations with near-Earth measurements allows the study of solar energetic particle (SEP) events over a wide longitudinal range with minimal radial gradient effects. This contribution provides an overview of recent results obtained by the STEREO/IMPACT team in combination with observations by the ACE and SOHO spacecraft. We focus especially on multi-spacecraft investigations of SEP events. The large longitudinal spread of electron and 3He-rich events as well as unusual anisotropies will be presented and discussed.

observations↗