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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Google Scholar as a Bibliographic Resource for Publications Search

This study focuses on the automated search for publication citations for the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) datasets. The research investigates the feasibility of using automated search methods to gather published works from various bibliometric databases. A comparison is presented, highlighting the differences in citation counts obtained from Google Scholar compared to established bibliographic databases. The study also introduces a methodology and an open-source tool for getting publication citations from Google Scholar, utilizing dataset DOIs and keyword searches. The findings contribute to understanding the reliability and effectiveness of Google Scholar as a source for dataset citation retrieval and provide researchers with a valuable resource for obtaining comprehensive citation data.

Infometrics↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ball bearing vibrations amplitude modeling and test comparisons

Bearings generate disturbances that, when combined with structural gains of a momentum wheel, contribute to induced vibration in the wheel. The frequencies generated by a ball bearing are defined by the bearing's geometry and defects. The amplitudes at these frequencies are dependent upon the actual geometry variations from perfection; therefore, a geometrically perfect bearing will produce no amplitudes at the kinematic frequencies that the design generates. Because perfect geometry can only be approached, emitted vibrations do occur. The most significant vibration is at the spin frequency and can be balanced out in the build process. Other frequencies' amplitudes, however, cannot be balanced out. Momentum wheels are usually the single largest source of vibrations in a spacecraft and can contribute to pointing inaccuracies if emitted vibrations ring the structure or are in the high-gain bandwidth of a sensitive pointing control loop. It is therefore important to be able to provide an a priori knowledge of possible amplitudes that are singular in source or are a result of interacting defects that do not reveal themselves in normal frequency prediction equations. This paper will describe the computer model that provides for the incorporation of bearing geometry errors and then develops an estimation of actual amplitudes and frequencies. Test results were correlated with the model. A momentum wheel was producing an unacceptable 74 Hz amplitude. The model was used to simulate geometry errors and proved successful in identifying a cause that was verified when the parts were inspected.

Hightower, Richard A., III↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preface to the JPCM special issue on intense radiation sources in condensed matter and materials physics

This special issue is designed to honour the contributions of our colleague Neville Greaves who was among the first to apply newly-available synchrotron x-ray techniques to study the synthesis, structures and properties of advanced materials [1, 2]. His wide ranging work on ceramics, glasses and nanomaterials was celebrated in a recent issue of the J. Non-Cryst. Solids [3]. Neville's contributions to synchrotron research, highlighted here, focussed on design and construction of new beamline capabilities and sample environments to probe materials under different physical and chemical conditions, integrating various techniques to obtain complementary data on structure and bonding. The innovative nature of his work is illustrated by his studies of liquids and glasses, where he incorporated aerodynamic levitation into these experimental techniques, using both synchrotron x-ray and neutron beams to probe the structural transformations and dynamics combined with molecular dynamics simulations to study atomic scale organisation. His work has had a major impact on fundamental condensed matter physics and chemistry as well as applied materials science; and in this issue, we present contributions from colleagues using and developing new experimental techniques at current and next-generation synchrotron, neutron and free-electron laser sources and in their own laboratories, that probe the fundamental physics, chemistry and functional properties of novel materials and processes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-33032-DND

The North Atlantic Aerosols and Marine Ecosystems Study (NAAMES; http://naames.larc.nasa.gov) is a five-year NASA Earth-Venture Suborbital-2 Mission to characterize the plankton ecosystems and their influences on remote marine aerosols, boundary layer clouds, and their implications for climate in the North Atlantic. While marine-sourced aerosols have been shown to make important contributions to surface aerosol loading, cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei concentrations over remote marine and coastal regions, it is still a challenge to differentiate the marine biogenic aerosol signal from the strong influence of continental pollution outflow. The objectives of this study are to determine the major transport pathways for North American pollution outflow to the North Atlantic, and to quantify the terrestrial and marine sources of aerosols during NAAMES using ground, ship, aircraft, and remote sensing observations in conjunction with a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). This poster presents an initial evaluation of GEOS-Chemfor the periods of NAAMES campaigns #1 (Nov. 2015) and #2 (May 2016).

Hongyu Liu↗
NASA NTRS1985

GRM crustal magnetic anomalies: Separating the Lord Howe Rise and Norfolk Ridge submarine structures

Multiple source bodies often lie within the resolution element of the MAGSAT and POGO data. Small weak sources lying near larger stronger sources will tend to be missed, although they do contribute to the total observed anomaly. Lower elevation magnetic anomaly surveys such as GRM alleviate this problem through the combined effects of significantly greater resolution and stronger signal amplitude. This permits the detection of smaller source bodies, and analysis of their structure and nature. The improvement a GRM will provide is demonstrated in the Lord Howe Rise/Norfolk Ridge area east of Australia, between the Tasman Sea and south Fiji Basin. The submarine features origin have important plate tectonic implications. The Lord Howe Rise (LHR) is a continental fragment broken off from Australia by the opening of the Tasman Sea. It is a wide, shallow structure lying between 160 and 165 deg longitude at 23 to 37 deg S latitude. Seismic refraction data show the LHR crust extending to depths in excess of 20 km.

Frey, H.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Intercontinental Transport of Aerosols: Implication for Regional Air Quality

Aerosol particles, also known as PM2.5 (particle diameter less than 2.5 microns) and PM10 (particle diameter less than 10 microns), is one of the key atmospheric components that determine ambient air quality. Current US air quality standards for PM10 (particles with diameter < 10 microns) and PM2.5 (particles with diameter 2.5 microns) are 50 pg/cu m and 15 pg/cu m, respectively. While local and regional emission sources are the main cause of air pollution problems, aerosols can be transported on a hemispheric or global scale. In this study, we use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to quantify contributions of long-range transport vs. local/regional pollution sources and from natural vs. anthropogenic sources to PM concentrations different regions. In particular, we estimate the hemispheric impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and dust from major source areas on other regions in the world. The GOCART model results are compared with satellite remote sensing and ground-based network measurements of aerosol optical depth and concentrations.

Chin, Mian↗
DOE OSTI2017

A New 2.5 MeV Injector and Beam Test Facility for the Spallation Neutron Source

The U.S. Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) now operates with 1.2 MW of beam power on target with the near-term goal of delivering 1.4 MW and a longer-term goal of delivering >2 MW to support a planned second target station. Presently, H- beam pulses (50-60 mA, 1 ms, 60 Hz) from an RF-driven, Cs-enhanced, multi-cusp ion source are first accelerated to 2.5 MeV by a Radio Frequency Quadrupole (RFQ) accelerator, injected into a ~1 GeV linac, compressed to <1μs in an accumulator ring and ultimately delivered to a liquid mercury target for pulsed neutron production. In recent years concerns about the RFQ performance has motivated the procurement of a new RFQ and the creation of a Beam Test Facility (BTF) to allow off-line testing. The purpose of the BTF is to first validate performance of the new RFQ before installing it in place of the existing RFQ and later to serve as a stand-alone 2.5 MeV research accelerator employing the original SNS RFQ. After validating the new RFQ with respect to energy, emittance and transmission, the initial applications of the BTF will be to conduct 6D beam dynamic studies, develop & demonstrate ion sources capable of meeting the current and future requirements of the SNS, and contribute to neutron moderator development. This report provides a facility update, description of the BTF ion source systems as well as a discussion of the first LEBT and RFQ beam current measurements performed at the BTF.REFERENCES

Welton, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

AGB stars as a source of short-lived radioactive nuclei in the solar nebula

The purpose is to estimate the possible contribution of some short-lived nuclei to the early solar nebula from asymptotic giant branch (AGB) sources. Low mass (1 to 3 solar mass) AGB stars appear to provide a site for synthesis of the main s process component for solar system material with an exponential distribution of neutron irradiations varies as exp(-tau/tau(sub 0)) (where tau is the time integrated neutron flux with a mean neutron exposure tau(sub 0)) for solar abundances with tau(sub 0) = 0.28 mb(sup -1). Previous workers estimated the synthesis of key short-lived nuclei which might be produced in AGB stars. While these calculations exhibit the basic characteristics of nuclei production by neutron exposure, there is need for a self-consistent calculation that follows AGB evolution and takes into account the net production from a star and dilution with the cloud medium. Many of the general approaches and the conclusions arrived at were presented earlier by Cameron. The production of nuclei for a star of 1.5 solar mass during the thermal pulsing of the AGB phase was evaluated. Calculations were done for a series of thermal pulses with tau(sub 0) = 0.12 and 0.28 mb(sup -1). These pulses involve s nucleosynthesis in the burning shell at the base of the He zone followed by the ignition of the H burning shell at the top of the He zone. After about 10-15 cycles the abundances of the various nuclei in the He zone become constant. Computations of the abundances of all nuclei in the He zone were made following Gallino. The mass of the solar nebula was considered to consist of some initial material of approximately solar composition plus some contributions from AGB stars. The ratios of the masses required from the AGB He burning zone to the ISM necessary to produce the observed value of Pd-107/Pd-108 in the early solar system were calculated and this dilution factor was applied to all other relevant nuclei.

Wasserburg, G. J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Estimating the Contribution of Dynamical Ejecta in the Kilonova Associated with GW170817

The source of the gravitational-wave (GW) signal GW170817, very likely a binary neutron star merger, was also observed electromagnetically, providing the first multi-messenger observations of this type. The two-week-long electromagnetic (EM) counterpart had a signature indicative of an r-process-induced optical transient known as a kilonova. This Letter examines how the mass of the dynamical ejecta can be estimated without a direct electromagnetic observation of the kilonova, using GW measurements and a phenomenological model calibrated to numerical simulations of mergers with dynamical ejecta. Specifically, we apply the model to the binary masses inferred from the GW measurements, and use the resulting mass of the dynamical ejecta to estimate its contribution (without the effects of wind ejecta) to the corresponding kilonova light curves from various models. The distributions of dynamical ejecta mass range between ${M}_{\mathrm{ej}}={10}^{-3}-{10}^{-2}\,{M}_{\odot }$ for various equations of state, assuming that the neutron stars are rotating slowly. In addition, we use our estimates of the dynamical ejecta mass and the neutron star merger rates inferred from GW170817 to constrain the contribution of events like this to the r-process element abundance in the Galaxy when ejecta mass from post-merger winds is neglected. We find that if ≳10% of the matter dynamically ejected from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers is converted to r-process elements, GW170817-like BNS mergers could fully account for the amount of r-process material observed in the Milky Way.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aerosol Source Attributions and Source-Receptor Relationships Across the Northern Hemisphere

Emissions and long-range transport of air pollution pose major concerns on air quality and climate change. To better assess the impact of intercontinental transport of air pollution on regional and global air quality, ecosystems, and near-term climate change, the UN Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP) is organizing a phase II activity (HTAP2) that includes global and regional model experiments and data analysis, focusing on ozone and aerosols. This study presents the initial results of HTAP2 global aerosol modeling experiments. We will (a) evaluate the model results with surface and aircraft measurements, (b) examine the relative contributions of regional emission and extra-regional source on surface PM concentrations and column aerosol optical depth (AOD) over several NH pollution and dust source regions and the Arctic, and (c) quantify the source-receptor relationships in the pollution regions that reflect the sensitivity of regional aerosol amount to the regional and extra-regional emission reductions.

HTAP2↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50° S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr-1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr-1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr-1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr-1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

Wang, Hailong↗
DOE OSTI2018

Unexpected contributions of sea spray and lake spray aerosol to inland particulate matter

Sea spray aerosol (SSA) and lake spray aerosol (LSA) from wave breaking contribute to 17 particulate matter (PM) in coastal regions near oceans and freshwater lakes, respectively. 18 However, SSA and LSA contributions to atmospheric aerosol populations in inland regions are 19 poorly understood due to difficulties differentiating them from other inland sources when using 20 bulk particle measurements. Herein, we show that SSA and LSA episodically contribute to 21 atmospheric aerosol populations at a rural site in northern Michigan >700 km and >30 km from 22 the nearest ocean and Great Lakes sources, respectively. During July 2014, individual SSA and 23 LSA particles were identified by single particle mass spectrometry and electron microscopy, 24 then combined with air mass trajectory analysis for source apportionment. During two multiday 25 transport events from Hudson Bay, SSA comprised 34% and 20% of PM mass (0.5-2.0 µm). 26 LSA transported from Lake Michigan reached a maximum of 11% of PM mass (0.5 – 2 µm) 27 during a daylong high wind event, but also contributed a 5% average background during 92% of 28 the study. Therefore, transported SSA and LSA particles can contribute to particle mass, altering 29 atmospheric composition, cloud formation, and human exposures at inland locations far from 30 marine and freshwater sources.

May, Nathaniel W.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Gut bacteria responding to dietary change encode sialidases that exhibit preference for red meat-associated carbohydrates

Dietary habits have been associated with alterations of the human gut resident microorganisms contributing to obesity, diabetes and cancer. In Western diets, red meat is a frequently eaten food, but long-term consumption has been associated with increased risk of disease. Red meat is enriched in N-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc) that cannot be synthesized by humans. However, consumption can cause Neu5Gc incorporation into cell surface glycans, especially in carcinomas. As a consequence, an inflammatory response is triggered when Neu5Gc-containing glycans encounter circulating anti-Neu5Gc antibodies. Although bacteria can use free sialic acids as a nutrient source, it is currently unknown if gut microorganisms contribute to releasing Neu5Gc from food. Iin this work, we found that a Neu5Gc-rich diet induces changes in the gut microbiota, with Bacteroidales and Clostridiales responding the most. Genome assembling of mouse and human shotgun metagenomic sequencing identified bacterial sialidases with previously unobserved substrate preference for Neu5Gc-containing glycans. X-ray crystallography revealed key amino acids potentially contributing to substrate preference. Additionally, we verified that mouse and human sialidases were able to release Neu5Gc from red meat. The release of Neu5Gc from red meat using bacterial sialidases could reduce the risk of inflammatory diseases associated with red meat consumption, including colorectal cancer and atherosclerosis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Gamma Ray Bursts-Afterglows and Counterparts

Several breakthrough discoveries were made last year of x-ray, optical and radio afterglows and counterparts to gamma-ray bursts, and a redshift has been associated with at least one of these. These discoveries were made possible by the fast, accurate gamma-ray burst locations of the BeppoSAX satellite. It is now generally believed that the burst sources are at cosmological distances and that they represent the most powerful explosions in the Universe. These observations also open new possibilities for the study of early star formation, the physics of extreme conditions and perhaps even cosmology. This session will concentrate on recent x-ray, optical and radio afterglow observations of gamma-ray bursts, associated redshift measurements, and counterpart observations. Several review and theory talks will also be presented, along with a summary of the astrophysical implications of the observations. There will be additional poster contributions on observations of gamma-ray burst source locations at wavelengths other than gamma rays. Posters are also solicited that describe new observational capabilities for rapid follow-up observations of gamma-ray bursts.

Fishman, Gerald J↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000−7.04 million deaths and 80−240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

nuclear power plants↗
NASA NTRS2023

Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Hélène Seroussi↗